transport mode and climate change interaction in turkey
TRANSCRIPT
Transport Mode and Climate Change Interaction in Turkey
Fusun ULENGIN, Mine ISIK, Ozay OZAYDIN, Ozgur KABAK,Sule ONSEL EKICI, Y.Ilker TOPCU
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
+2°C
10x20thcentury
21stcentury
Pittock (2009)
+0.9%annually
2005 2030
Mattila and Antikainen (2011)
Xenias and Whitmarsh (2013)
Transportation14%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
Motivation
Although sustainability in transportation and its impact to climate change is widely studied, the researches generally focus on a very limited number of alternative policies, do not take into account, the impact of those policies to a broader socio-economic, demographic systems etc.They also do not consider the interaction of transport system with all the socio-economic, demographic and technology related variables in reducing climate change impact of transportation.
Motivation
As is suggested by Santos (2010) although such an integrated approach is needed, there is not research conducted with such a broad perspective.That is why, the aim of this research is to overcome this drawback and provide an integrated transport policy to reduce the climate impact.For this purpose initially fuzzy cognitive map is developed to see the complex interactions among the variables and then scenario analysis is used to make projections and see the impact of different policies to reduce the impact of transportation on climate change
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
Steps to identify variables
Steps to identify variablesExisting literature
Stanley et al., 2011Yang et al., 2009Plambeck, 2012Verma et al, 2014Hickman et al, 2010Cobb and Thompson, 2012Reisi et al., 2014Limanond et al., 2011Pittock,2009Hoşgör and Tansel, 2010O’Neill et al, 2001Dalton et al, 2007Boer et al, 2011Owen and Hanley, 2004
Experts’ opinionDepending on experts’ views, some concepts have been eliminated or added to the concepts list.
Steps to identify variablesExisting literature
Stanley et al., 2011Yang et al., 2009Plambeck, 2012Verma et al, 2014Hickman et al, 2010Cobb and Thompson, 2012Reisi et al., 2014Limanond et al., 2011Pittock,2009Hoşgör and Tansel, 2010O’Neill et al, 2001Dalton et al, 2007Boer et al, 2011Owen and Hanley, 2004
Experts’ opinionDepending on experts’ views, some concepts have been eliminated or added to the concepts list.
Steps to identify variablesExisting literature
Stanley et al., 2011Yang et al., 2009Plambeck, 2012Verma et al, 2014Hickman et al, 2010Cobb and Thompson, 2012Reisi et al., 2014Limanond et al., 2011Pittock,2009Hoşgör and Tansel, 2010O’Neill et al, 2001Dalton et al, 2007Boer et al, 2011Owen and Hanley, 2004
Experts’ opinionDepending on experts’ views, some concepts have been eliminated or added to the concepts list.
Steps to identify variablesExisting literature
Stanley et al., 2011Yang et al., 2009Plambeck, 2012Verma et al, 2014Hickman et al, 2010Cobb and Thompson, 2012Reisi et al., 2014Limanond et al., 2011Pittock,2009Hoşgör and Tansel, 2010O’Neill et al, 2001Dalton et al, 2007Boer et al, 2011Owen and Hanley, 2004
Experts’ opinionDepending on experts’ views, some concepts have been eliminated or added to the concepts list.
Experts
Dr. Eckhard SzimbaAssistant ProfessorInstitute for Economic Policy ResearchKarlsruhe Institute of Technology
Dr. Ashish VermaAssistant professorCivil Engineering DepartmentIndian Institute of Science
Prof. Dr. M. RosárioM. R. MacárioProfessor and researcherUniversidade De Lisboa
Dr. Kemal SarıcaAssistant professorIşık University
Dr. Aseem KinraAssociate ProfessorCopenhagen Business School
Variables
DemographyEnergySocio-economic developmentTransportation factorsEmissionsPoliticsClimate change
Demography
Annual growth rate of populationYoung population rateDevelopment growthUrbanization rate
Energy
Use per personIntensity (per unit GDP)CostConsumption
Socio-economic development
GDPMotorizationEmployment rateIncome elasticity…(14)
Transport factors
Load factor of payloadsVehicle fuel efficiencyRoad qualityTrip times...(36+16)
Emissions
CO2 emissionsNoiseExternal costsCarbon intensity...(12)
Politics
PricingTaxationR&DEmission trading...(16+30+8)
Climate change
Documentary coding method
Wrightson (1976)
Cause Effectconnector
“emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
“emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
Cause
“emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
Cause Effect
“emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
Cause Effect
“emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
Cause Effect
+
“emissions resulting from human activities are
substantially increasing the atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases”
Cause Effect
+
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
Analysis of the map
Once the cognitive map is derived, a number of analysis can be conducted in order to understand the relations between the variables.In order to analyze the cognitive map, initially the map has to be converted to a nxn adjacency matrix A, where n is the number of elements in the corresponding cognitive map.It has as its entry, the value of the direct causal relationship from concept variable i to concept variable j.
Density analysis
Density analysis
# of connections
max # of possible connections
Density analysis
75
236= 0.05
Domain analysis
Eden and Ackermann, 1992
Domain analysis
In-degree + Out-degree
the column sum of the absolute values of the elements of column i in the adjacency matrix
the row sum of the absolute values of the element of row i in the
adjacency matrix
Eden and Ackermann, 1992
cognitively central
Domain Analysis
Climate change14links
Emission per person38
links
Variable categorization
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
Variable categorization
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
Variable categorization
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
Variable categorization
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
ordinary
⍯ 0 in-degree⍯ 0 out-degree
Variable categorization
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
ordinary
⍯ 0 in-degree⍯ 0 out-degree
Variable categorization
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
ordinary
⍯ 0 in-degree⍯ 0 out-degree
Variable categorization
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
ordinary
⍯ 0 in-degree⍯ 0 out-degree
42 25 8
Climate changeFuel consumptionTotal household consumption for transportEnergy demandEnergy use per personPassenger transport volumeExternal costsCapacity and quality of transport systems
Urbanization rateRoad congestion and traffic accidentsPassenger cars – electric and hydrogenRoad quality…Investment in rail transportTruck schedulingSC optimizationVehicle taxationHOV lanesStandards...
Complexity analysis
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
42 8
42
8
Complexity analysis
transmitter
Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2004
0 in-degree+ out-degree
receiver
+ in-degree0 out-degree
42 8
0,19
Impact of Transportation on Climate Change
Literature Survey
Proposed Methodology
Preliminary Results
Further Research and Suggestions
Further Research
A two-day workshop for determining Turkey’s needs transportation-induced climate change and comparing the works on sustainable transportation around the world, is currently being organized.Experts will be invited to
verify and revise the mapgive weights to the directional links
A fuzzy cognitive map will be constructedPolicies will be determined after establishing steady state conditions
Further Research
It is predicted that non-governmental organizations such as MBARQ and TEMA, representatives from related Ministries, academicians working on this subject, representatives from private sector and international invited speakers will attend the workshop.
http://j.mp/wctrs-sige1-workshop
thank you...
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