transport impact assessment report for east …

CANBERRA CQ1, Level 5, 68 Northbourne Avenue Canberra City ACT 2601 Phone: (02) 6285 1022

SYDNEY Suite 401 Level 4 24 Hunter Street PARRAMATTA NSW 2150 Phone: (02) 9633 2273

WOLLONGONG Suite 1 Ground Floor 25 Atchison Street WOLLONGONG NSW 2500 Phone: (02) 4288 4401

Web: www.indesco.com.au Email: [email protected]

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7281 EAST GUNGAHLIN HIGH SCHOOL KENNY TIA

TRANSPORT IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT

FOR

EAST GUNGAHLIN HIGH SCHOOL, KENNY

NOVEMBER 2020

Ref: 7281_EGHS Kenny TIA rev4.0.docx COMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE

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PROJECT TITLE: East Gungahlin High School Kenny TIA

PROJECT NUMBER: 7281

Prepared by: B Hodges / H McDonald Date: 26/09/2020

Reviewed by: D Beaton Date: 26/09/2020

Approved by: M Merange Date: 28/09/2020

REVISION CONTROL

Document Issue Date Recipient Details

First Issue 30/09/2020 IDP M Beljic

Second Issue 19/10/2020 IDP M Beljic

Third Issue 06/11/2020 IDP M Beljic

Base Template: Version: B Feb 2020


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

Indesco was engaged by Major Projects Canberra (MPC) on behalf of Transport Canberra and City Services (TCCS) to undertake a Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) of the proposed East Gungahlin High School (EGHS). This report summarises the range of analyses and assessments undertaken in relation to the traffic, public transport, active travel, and car parking elements of the proposed development.

PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

The subject site is located on the south side of Well Station Drive, between Old Well Station track and Albatross Crescent West.

The proposed development is a new high school, to service the future Kenny suburb and surrounding area. The high school is proposed to accommodate 800 students with a capacity extension to 1,000 students. The site will also make provision for a primary school (600 students with capacity extension to 750 students) and a pre-school (44 students).

The preliminary school Master Plan, below, shows the proposed high school located in the west half of the site, with provision for the primary school and pre-school on the east half. This analysis assumes that the high school will begin operation in 2023 with the primary school and pre-school beginning operation in 2031.

East Gungahlin High School – Ultimate Internal Layout (Preliminary Master Plan) Vehicle access to the development site is proposed to occur via a School Loop Road along the south and west boundaries of the development site. Under the interim conditions (i.e. when only the high school is operational) all access to and from the School Loop Road is assumed to occur via an extension to Albatross Crescent West, along the east boundary of the site. In the ultimate conditions (i.e. when the primary school and pre-school are operational) an additional left-in, left-out intersection has been assumed on Well Station Drive at the northwest corner of the development site. Furthermore, driveway access to the pre-school, via the extension to Albatross Crescent West, is assumed under the ultimate conditions. It is noted that the service road along the northern boundary of the school has been omitted from this analysis for pedestrian safety reasons and due to the anticipated impacts on the left-in, left-out access and bus stops along Well Station Drive.

The preliminary school Master Plan shows a total of 221 car parking spaces, distributed as follows:

120 car parking spaces for the high school, 86 car parking spaces for the primary school, and 15 car parking spaces for the pre-school.


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PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Existing public transport services operating in the vicinity of the proposed EGHS development include:

The route 18 bus which operates at approximately 30-minute headways and serves the stops on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West, and

The light rail which operates at between 5 to 10-minute headways and serves the stop on Flemington Road at Well Station Drive.

In order to serve the proposed EGHS development, it is recommended to provide the following infrastructure under the interim conditions (i.e. prior to the duplication of Well Station Drive and the opening of the primary school and pre-school):

Bus stops (accommodating three buses) on the west side of Albatross Crescent West along the school frontage,

Public route buses to divert via this new stop during school peak times, Turn around facility for buses (roundabout) at the southeast corner of the school site, Traffic signals at the Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West intersection, and Existing bus stops on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West to be reconstructed to serve

public route buses during non-school times.

It is noted that this interim arrangement is expected to preclude the construction of a driveway access to the pre-school on the eastern side of the subject site.

Ultimately (i.e. after the duplication of Well Station Drive) it is recommended to provide:

New bus stops to be constructed at the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon intersection to serve both school and public route buses,

Existing bus stops on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West to be reconstructed to maintain public transport network coverage, and

Bus stop on west side of Albatross Crescent West to be used exclusively for school excursions, camps, etc.

ACTIVE TRAVEL

The active travel network in the vicinity of the EGHS development site, has been assessed against active travel demands calculated based on both expected and aspirational active travel mode splits. It was found that a range of improvements are required to cater for the anticipated active travel demands. These include:

Widening of the existing 2.5m wide shared path along the west side of Flemington Road, between Well Station Drive and Nullarbor Avenue, to 3.0m wide,

A new 3.0m wide shared path on the north side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Flemington Road,

A new 4.0m wide shared path on the south side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Flemington Road,

A new 3.0m wide shared path on the south side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent West (along the school frontage),

A new 2.5m wide shared path on the east side of Albatross Crescent West, between Well Station Drive and the Kenny West Access Road,

A new 3-4m wide shared path on the west side of Albatross Crescent West, between Well Station Drive and the Kenny West Access Road,

A new 3-4m wide shared path parallel to the Kenny West Access Road, A signalised pedestrian crossing on Well Station Drive in the vicinity of Albatross Crescent West, A signalised pedestrian crossing on Well Station Drive in the vicinity of Kings Canyon Street, and Kerb ramps and connecting paths on Nullarbor Avenue in the vicinity of Adder Street.

TRAFFIC ANALYSIS

The traffic impacts of the proposed development have been assessed through the use of a microsimulation model, developed using the Aimsun Next 20 software package and built as an extension to a previous model prepared by Calibre in 2019. It is noted that due to the process of extending the


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Calibre model and also due to the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on traffic demands, at the time of model development, the model has been calibrated and validated to reflect the 2019 existing conditions.

2019 Existing Conditions

Under the 2019 existing conditions all core intersections operate satisfactorily during each of the three (3) peak hours (AM commuter peak, PM school peak and PM commuter peak). It was however observed that the maximum queue on the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection extended back to block the upstream Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection (213m queue in 170m storage), during the AM commuter peak hour. Furthermore, the right-turn movement from the north approach at this intersection was found to experience long delays (119s, LOS F) and have a queue that overflowed the short right-turn lane (126m queue in 85m storage). This indicates that the intersection is operating at a level approaching capacity under the 2019 existing conditions.

Base Cases

The Base Cases represent the conditions on the road network with background growth, the Kenny development, and the Park & Ride facility, but without the proposed EGHS development.

Linear annual growth rates were derived from outputs from the Canberra Strategic Transport Model (CSTM). These growth rates were calculated to specifically exclude traffic demands associated with the Kenny development (as these would be considered separately). Ultimately background growth rates of 1.05% p.a. and 0.60% p.a. were adopted for the analysis.

Traffic demands associated with the Kenny development were based on the following assumptions. In 2023, the Kenny development would comprise 200 residential dwellings (and no commercial development), located in the west part of the development area. While in 2031, the Kenny development would be fully occupied and would therefore comprise 1,500 dwellings and 5,000m2 of commercial floor area. Traffic demands associated with the Kenny development were then calculated using traffic generation rates from the Estate Development Code and RMS NSW Trip Generation publications and were distributed in accordance with journey to work data for the surrounding area, from the 2016 Australian Census.

The Park & Ride facility at the south-east corner of Flemington Road / Well Station Drive is assumed to accommodate 200 parked cars and be operational from 2023. Traffic generation and distribution from the previous Calibre model were adopted for consistency.

Under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios the core intersections are generally expected to operate satisfactorily. However, the maximum queues on the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection (during the AM commuter, PM school and PM commuter peak hours) and the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection (AM commuter peak hour) are expected to extend back to block upstream intersections.

On this basis, Works Packages A and B are required to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and the initial stage of the Kenny development. Furthermore, Works Packages C and D are recommended in order to maintain an acceptable level of performance across the road network under the 2023 Base Case traffic demands.

Under the 2031 Base Case scenarios and in addition to those upgrades recommended under the 2023 Base Case, Works Package G is required to provide access to the latter stages of the Kenny development. Additionally, Works Package H is recommended to improve the performance of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. Furthermore, Works Packages I and K have been adopted in the modelling to address capacity constraints identified outside the core area of the model. Further analysis into the performance of the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive and Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway intersections is required. Finally, Works Package J has also been included to address geometric constraints that arise from the inclusion of Works Package I.

EGHS Cases

The EGHS Cases represent the conditions on the road network with background growth, the Kenny development, the Park & Ride facility and also with the proposed EGHS development.


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The traffic demands associated with the proposed EGHS development were agreed with TCCS. These were based on the 70th percentile trip generation rates published by RMS NSW for public secondary schools and the traffic distribution adopted in the previous Calibre model.

Under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios the core intersections are generally expected to operate satisfactorily. However, the maximum queues on the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection (during the AM commuter, PM school and PM commuter peak hours) and the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection (AM commuter peak hour) are expected to extend back to block upstream intersections. This causes excessive delays to vehicles on the west approach to the Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection as well as on the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection during the AM commuter peak hour. It was found that in 2023 EGHS contributed approximately twice the number of peak hour vehicle trips to these critical approaches, compared to the Kenny development. This is primarily due to the small number of occupied dwellings within Kenny, assumed as part of the 2023 scenarios. As such, the poor performance of part of the road network is expected irrespective of whether only EGHS or the Kenny development were to proceed in 2023.

On this basis, Works Package A is required to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility, while, Works Package E is recommended to provide safe and efficient access to the initial stages of the Kenny development and the school site (including for pedestrians). Similarly, Works Package M is recommended to improve pedestrian safety at the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection. Works Packages C and D are recommended to improve the performance of the arterial road network within the study area and Works Package F is recommended to address geometric constraints on Well Station Drive.

Under the 2031 EGHS Case scenarios and in addition to those upgrades recommended under the 2023 EGHS Case, Works Package G is required to provide access to the latter stages of the Kenny development. Similarly, Works Package L is recommended to provide an additional access to the school site. Works Package H is recommended to improve the performance of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. Furthermore, Works Packages I and K have been adopted in the modelling to address capacity constraints identified outside the core area of the model. Further analysis into the performance of the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive and Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway intersections is required. Finally, Works Package J has also been included to address geometric constraints that arise from the inclusion of Works Package I.

RECOMMENDED ROAD UPGRADES

The following table summarises the works packages recommended in order to maintain an acceptable level of performance across the road network, under the various future scenarios.

Recommended Works Packages

Works Package Primary Reason for Recommendation

2023 2031

Base EGHS Base EGHS

A – Park & Ride Access Access Yes Yes Yes Yes

B – Kenny Access (2023) Access Yes Yes

C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to Kings Canyon Street

Road Network Performance Yes Yes Yes Yes

D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach


E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

Access and Pedestrian Safety Yes Yes


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2023 2031

Base EGHS Base EGHS

F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West

Geometric Constraints Yes Yes

G – Kenny Accesses (2031) Access Yes Yes

H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on South Approach

Road Network Performance Yes Yes

I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

Further Analysis Required Yes Yes

J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to Flemington Road


K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway: Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane


L – School Loop Road / Well Station Drive: Left-In, Left-Out Access

Access Yes

M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals Pedestrian Safety Yes Yes

PARKING ASSESSMENTS

A range of parking assessments were undertaken in accordance with the relevant statutory requirements.

In accordance with the Bicycle Parking General Code, the proposed development requires:

150 secure bicycle parking spaces (100 for the high school and 50 for the primary school and pre-school),

Seven (7) convenient bicycle parking spaces (four (4) for the high school and three (3) for the primary school and pre-school), and

10 showers and associated change rooms (six (6) for the high school and four (4) for the primary school and pre-school).

In accordance with the Parking and Vehicular Access General Code, the proposed development requires:

144 long-term car parking spaces (80 for the high school, 60 for the primary school and four (4) for the pre-school), and

72 short-term car parking spaces (40 for the high school, 30 for the primary school and two (2) for the pre-school).

It is noted that the 221 car parking spaces shown on the preliminary school Master Plan, exceeds the statutory car parking requirement by five (5) car parking spaces.

A first principles car parking demand assessment was also undertaken, based on the conservative traffic generation adopted for the proposed school development. This assessment found that the proposed school development is likely to generate peak car parking demands in the order of:

179 long-term car parking spaces (100 for the high school, 75 for the primary school and four (4) the pre-school), and

97 short-term car parking spaces (46 for the high school, 47 for the primary school and four (4) for the pre-school).


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It is noted that these car parking demands exceed both the statutory car parking requirement and the number of car parking spaces shown on the preliminary school Master Plan. Given the impact that restricted car parking availability can have on mode choices, it is recommended to provide car parking at the proposed development in-line with the statutory requirements. This will assist in creating a mode shift away from private motor vehicles.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ...................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Overview / Yields ........................................................................................................................ 1 2.2 Internal School Layout ................................................................................................................ 1 2.3 Internal Vehicle Access .............................................................................................................. 2 2.4 On-Site Car Parking .................................................................................................................... 3 2.5 Bus Facilities ............................................................................................................................... 3 2.6 Bicycle Facilities ......................................................................................................................... 3 2.7 Pedestrian Connectivity .............................................................................................................. 3

3. BACKGROUND INFORMATION .................................................................................................. 3 3.1 Previous Traffic Assessments - Calibre 2019............................................................................. 3

4. EXISTING CONDITIONS ............................................................................................................... 4 4.1 Subject Site ................................................................................................................................. 4 4.2 Study Area .................................................................................................................................. 5 4.3 Road Network ............................................................................................................................. 6 4.4 Public Transport .......................................................................................................................... 8 4.5 Active Travel ............................................................................................................................... 9 4.6 Crash History ............................................................................................................................ 11 4.7 Microsimulation Modelling (Aimsun) ......................................................................................... 14 4.8 Traffic Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 17

5. FUTURE CONDITIONS (BASE CASE).......................................................................................20 5.1 Assessment Horizon Years ...................................................................................................... 20 5.2 Traffic Growth and Nearby Developments ............................................................................... 20 5.3 Traffic Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 27

6. FUTURE CONDITIONS (EGHS CASES) ....................................................................................48 6.1 Proposed Development Travel Demands ................................................................................. 48 6.2 Public Transport ........................................................................................................................ 60 6.3 Active Travel ............................................................................................................................. 62 6.4 Traffic Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 69

7. SUMMARY OF FUTURE CONDITIONS .....................................................................................87 7.1 Public Transport ........................................................................................................................ 87 7.2 Active Travel ............................................................................................................................. 87 7.3 Traffic Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 87 7.4 Recommended Works Packages ............................................................................................. 89

8. PARKING ASSESSMENTS ........................................................................................................90 8.1 Bicycle Parking Requirements .................................................................................................. 90 8.2 Overall Car Parking Requirement ............................................................................................. 90 8.3 Disabled Car Parking Requirement .......................................................................................... 92


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8.4 Motorcycle Parking Requirement ............................................................................................. 93

9. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................................94


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APPENDIX A PRELIMINARY SCHOOL MASTER PLAN APPENDIX B HISTORICAL CRASH DATA APPENDIX C MODEL CALIBRATION & VALIDATION REPORT (31/08/2020) APPENDIX D TRAFFIC DEMAND MATRICES – EXISTING CONDITIONS APPENDIX E MODEL RESULTS – EXISTING CONDITIONS APPENDIX F CSTM MODEL OUTPUTS APPENDIX G BACKGROUND GROWTH RATE CALCULATION APPENDIX H TRAFFIC GENERATION – KENNY DEVELOPMENT APPENDIX I TRAFFIC GENERATION – PARK & RIDE FACILITY APPENDIX J TRAFFIC DEMAND MATRICES – 2023 BASE CASE APPENDIX K1 MODEL RESULTS – 2023 BASE CASE WITH MINIMAL ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX K2 MODEL RESULTS – 2023 BASE CASE WITH RECOMMENDED ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX L TRAFFIC DEMAND MATRICES – 2031 BASE CASE APPENDIX M1 MODEL RESULTS – 2031 BASE CASE WITH MINIMAL ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX M2 MODEL RESULTS – 2031 BASE CASE WITH RECOMMENDED ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX N SCHOOL TRAFFIC GENERATION RATES MEMORANDUM (21/08/2020) APPENDIX O EGHS – TCCS DRC MEETING MINUTES (02/09/2020) APPENDIX P TRAFFIC GENERATION – PROPOSED SCHOOL DEVELOPMENT APPENDIX Q TRAFFIC DEMAND MATRICES – 2023 EGHS CASE APPENDIX R1 MODEL RESULTS – 2023 EGHS CASE WITH MINIMAL ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX R2 MODEL RESULTS – 2023 EGHS CASE WITH RECOMMENDED ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX S TRAFFIC DEMADN MATRICES – 2031 EGHS CASE APPENDIX T1 MODEL RESULTS – 2031 EGHS CASE WITH MINIMAL ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX T2 MODEL RESULTS – 2031 EGHS CASE WITH RECOMMENDED ROAD UPGRADES APPENDIX U EGHS – TCCS DRC MEETING MINUTES (18/09/2020) APPENDIX V ACTIVE TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS


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List of Figures

Figure 1. Kenny – Potential Development Layout – Option 3 ................................................................. 1 Figure 2. East Gungahlin High School – Interim Internal Layout (Preliminary) ....................................... 2 Figure 3. East Gungahlin High School – Ultimate Internal Layout (Preliminary) .................................... 2 Figure 4. Previous Calibre TIA (2019) – Modelling Scope & Extent (Aerial Source: ACTMAPi) ............ 4 Figure 5. Subject Site – Territory Plan .................................................................................................... 5 Figure 6. Site Location & Model Extents (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ....................................................... 6 Figure 7. Well Station Drive (View East) ................................................................................................. 7 Figure 8. Well Station Drive (View West) ................................................................................................ 7 Figure 9. Flemington Road (View North) ................................................................................................. 7 Figure 10. Flemington Road (View South) .............................................................................................. 7 Figure 11. Horse Park Drive (View South) .............................................................................................. 8 Figure 12. Horse Park Drive (View North) ............................................................................................... 8 Figure 13. Key Public Transport Routes (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ....................................................... 9 Figure 14. Existing Active Travel Infrastructure..................................................................................... 10 Figure 15. Strategic Active Travel Routes ............................................................................................. 11 Figure 16. Kenny – Potential Development Layout – Option 3 ............................................................. 21 Figure 17. Kenny – Traffic Distribution (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ........................................................ 24 Figure 18. Kenny – Access Point Usage – Catchment Areas ............................................................... 25 Figure 19. Park and Ride – Indicative Layout ....................................................................................... 26 Figure 20. Park and Ride – Catchment Area (Aerial Source: Nearmap) .............................................. 27 Figure 31. High School Across Canberra – Existing Mode Split ........................................................... 48 Figure 32. EGHS – Indicative EGHS Catchment Area (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ............................... 50 Figure 33. Active Travel Desire Lines (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ......................................................... 51 Figure 34. EGHS Generated Active Travel Peak Hour Volumes .......................................................... 51 Figure 35. EGHS – Interim Vehicle Access Arrangements (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ......................... 59 Figure 36. EGHS – Ultimate Vehicle Access Arrangements (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ...................... 60 Figure 37. Existing Bus Stops west of Albatross Crescent West (Aerial Source: Nearmap) ................ 61 Figure 38. Proposed Interim/Ultimate Bus Provision (Aerial Source: Nearmap) .................................. 62 Figure 39. Future Active Travel Peak Hour Volumes ............................................................................ 63 Figure 40. AGRD6A – Path Width Selection – 75%/25% Directional Split ........................................... 64 Figure 41. Pedestrian Desire Lines from School Access Points ........................................................... 67 Figure 42. Nullarbor Avenue Crossing – Recommend Kerb Ramp ...................................................... 68 Figure 43. Summary of Recommended Active Travel Upgrades .......................................................... 69


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List of Tables

Table 1. Existing Public Transport ........................................................................................................... 8 Table 2. Overall Crash Data Summary (1/1/15 to 31/12/19) ................................................................. 11 Table 3. Core Area Crashes – Year of Crashes ................................................................................... 13 Table 4. Core Area Crashes – Crash Types (RUM Code) .................................................................... 13 Table 5. Core Area Crashes – Surface Conditions ............................................................................... 14 Table 6. Calibration Criteria ................................................................................................................... 15 Table 7. Validation Criteria – West Portion of Model ............................................................................ 16 Table 8. Validation Criteria – East Portion of Model ............................................................................. 16 Table 9. Network-Wide Performance Summary – Existing Conditions AM Commuter Peak ............... 17 Table 10. Key Intersections Performance Summary – Existing Conditions .......................................... 18 Table 11. CSTM Background Growth Rates ......................................................................................... 20 Table 12. Kenny Development – Adopted Traffic Generation ............................................................... 23 Table 13. Kenny Development – In/Out Volume Splits ......................................................................... 24 Table 14. Kenny Development – 15 Minute Volume Distribution .......................................................... 24 Table 15. Kenny Development – Access Point Usage .......................................................................... 25 Table 16. Park and Ride – Traffic Generation ....................................................................................... 27 Table 17. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) .............................. 30 Table 18. Core Area Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ..................................... 31 Table 19. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ........... 33 Table 20. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) .................. 39 Table 21. Core Area Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)......................... 39 Table 22. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) 41 Table 23. Network-Wide Performance Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ......... 42 Table 24. Core Area Performance Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ............... 42 Table 25. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) .......... 44 Table 26. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) .................. 45 Table 27. Core Area Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)......................... 46 Table 28. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) 47 Table 29. Harrison School – MyWay Data – Student Light Rail / Bus Usage ....................................... 48 Table 30. EGHS – Public Transport Volumes ....................................................................................... 49 Table 31. EGHS – Active Travel Volumes ............................................................................................ 49 Table 32. EGHS – Active Travel Trips – Proportion of Trips by Suburb ............................................... 50 Table 33. EGHS – 2023 Traffic Generation .......................................................................................... 52 Table 34. EGHS – 2031 Traffic Generation .......................................................................................... 53 Table 35. EGHS – Staff Trips in Peak Hours ........................................................................................ 53 Table 36. EGHS – In/Out Splits ............................................................................................................. 54 Table 37. EGHS – Linked Trips ............................................................................................................. 54 Table 38. EGHS – Staff Traffic Distribution ........................................................................................... 55


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Table 39. EGHS – Student ‘Home’ Trips Traffic Distribution (2023) ..................................................... 56 Table 40. EGHS – Student ‘Home’ Trips Traffic Distribution (2031) ..................................................... 56 Table 41. EGHS – Student ‘Linked Work’ Trips Traffic Distribution ...................................................... 56 Table 42. EGHS – 2031 High School Trips – School Access Point Usage .......................................... 57 Table 43. Municipal Infrastructure Standard 05 – Path Widths ............................................................. 63 Table 44. Assessment of Path Linkages ............................................................................................... 64 Table 45. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ............................ 71 Table 46. Core Area Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ................................... 72 Table 47. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ......... 75 Table 48. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) ................ 77 Table 49. Core Area Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)....................... 78 Table 50. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) ............................................................................................................................................................... 80 Table 51. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ............................ 81 Table 52. Core Area Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ................................... 81 Table 53. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades) ......... 83 Table 54. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) ................ 84 Table 55. Core Area Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)....................... 85 Table 56. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades) ............................................................................................................................................................... 86 Table 58. EGHS – Bicycle Parking Assessment ................................................................................... 90 Table 59. EGHS – PVAGC Car Parking Requirements ........................................................................ 91 Table 60. EGHS – First Principles Car Parking Demand ...................................................................... 91 Table 61. EGHS – Masterplan Car Parking Review ............................................................................. 92


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1. INTRODUCTION Indesco has been engaged by Major Projects Canberra (MPC) on behalf of Transport Canberra and City Services (TCCS) to undertake a Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) of the proposed East Gungahlin High School (EGHS) in Kenny.

The following report presents the key traffic engineering aspects associated with the proposal including traffic, public transport, active travel, and car parking.

2. PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

2.1 OVERVIEW / YIELDS

The proposed development is a new high school, to service the future Kenny suburb and surrounding area. The high school will accommodate a projected 800 students, with capacity extension to 1,000 students. Classes are forecast to commence at the beginning of the 2023 school year.

The school site will also make provision for a potential future primary school / pre-school, with an indicative design allowance as follows:

Design Capacity – 600 primary school students and 44 pre-school students Capacity Extension – 750 primary school students and 44 pre-school students

The school site is identified in the potential development layout for the overall Kenny suburb, as shown in ‘yellow’ in Figure 1 below. The proposed school site is located on the south side of Well Station Drive between Albatross Crescent (West) and the Old Well Station Track.

Figure 1. Kenny – Potential Development Layout – Option 3

2.2 INTERNAL SCHOOL LAYOUT

The internal layout for the school site is currently being developed as part of the internal Master Planning process. A summary of the indicative internal school layouts (interim & ultimate) is provided in Figure 2 and Figure 3 below.

Proposed School Site




A copy of the preliminary Master Plan for the school is provided at Appendix A.

The high school is generally located on the western portion of the site, whilst the primary school/pre-school is generally located on the eastern portion of the site.

Figure 2. East Gungahlin High School – Interim Internal Layout (Preliminary)

Figure 3. East Gungahlin High School – Ultimate Internal Layout (Preliminary)

2.3 INTERNAL VEHICLE ACCESS

Internal vehicle access is provided via a ‘loop’ road extending along the south and west boundaries of the site linking the proposed on-site carparks. External vehicle access is proposed as follows:

Interim Conditions (High School Only)

Proposed Kenny Collector Road (extension of Albatross Crescent West) – All movements at southern access point.

Ultimate Condition (High School, Primary School & Pre-School)

Proposed Kenny Collector Road (extension of Albatross Crescent West) – All movements at southern access point and left in / left out at the northern access point.

Well Station Drive (west boundary of site) – Left In / Left Out only.




2.4 ON-SITE CAR PARKING

Car parking is proposed via three (3) separate on-site carparks, with the western carpark generally servicing the high school and the eastern carparks generally servicing the primary school/pre-school. A summary of the proposed on-site car parking is as follows:

West Carpark – 108 spaces (97 conventional and 11 pick-up/drop-off) High School Pick-Up/Drop-Off Bays – 12 spaces East Carpark (Primary School) – 86 spaces (76 conventional and 10 pick-up/drop-off) North-East Carpark (Pre-School) – 15 spaces TOTAL On-Site Parking – 221 spaces

2.5 BUS FACILITIES

An indented bus bay is proposed on the western side of the Kenny connector road, along the primary school frontage.

2.6 BICYCLE FACILITIES

Large bicycle enclosures are proposed for both the high school and the primary school. The enclosures are located adjacent to the east and west carparks.

2.7 PEDESTRIAN CONNECTIVITY

An extensive internal path network is proposed to facilitate pedestrian movements to/from the high school, primary school, and pre-school.

The main pedestrian entry for the high school is located on the western boundary of the site to the internal loop road. The main access to the primary school is located on the eastern boundary of the site to the Kenny collector road. No pedestrian access is proposed directly to Well Station Drive.

A path is proposed to extend between the southern boundary of the schools and on-site car parking. This path links the main entries for both schools with Well Station Drive and the Kenny West Access Road, to facilitate active travel and public transport trips to the schools.

3. BACKGROUND INFORMATION

3.1 PREVIOUS TRAFFIC ASSESSMENTS - CALIBRE 2019

A previous TIA for the EGHS site was undertaken by Calibre in late 2019. This assessment was based on the proposed school site being located to the west of the current site, generally between Flemington Road and Kings Canyon Street.

This assessment utilised microsimulation (Aimsun) to model a network generally including Flemington Road and Well Station Drive (to Albatross Crescent West). A diagram showing the location of the previous school site and extent of traffic modelling for the previous Calibre study is provided in Figure 4 below.

A summary of the previous assessments undertaken by Calibre is provided in a report titled ‘East Gungahlin High School – Traffic Impact Assessment Report’, Reference 19-000716, Version 4, Dated 14/02/2020.

Calibre have provided their previous Aimsun model to TCCS to be utilised as part of the current study.

Ref: 7281_EGHS Kenny TIA rev4.0.docxCOMMERCIAL IN CONFIDENCE



Figure 4. Previous Calibre TIA (2019) – Modelling Scope & Extent (Aerial Source: ACTMAPi)

4. EXISTING CONDITIONS

4.1 SUBJECT SITE

The subject site forms part of Registered Rural Block 792, Gungahlin. The subject site is generally located on the south side of Well Station Drive between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent (West).

In a broader context, the site is approximately 8.25km north of the Canberra City Centre and 3.2km south of the Gungahlin Town Centre.

The overall site (Block 792) is zoned for future uses including Medium Density Residential (RD4), Core Zone Commercial (CZ1), Urban Open Space (PRZ1), Suburban Residential (RZ1) and Transport (TSZ1). The portion of the overall site where the proposed school is to be located, is zoned as Suburban Residential (RZ1).

A copy of the Territory Plan for the area surrounding the subject site is shown in Figure 5 below.

Previous School Investigation Site

Previous Calibre Model Extents




Figure 5. Subject Site – Territory Plan

4.2 STUDY AREA

The current TIA is being prepared due to the proposed relocation of the school to the east, when compared to the previous Calibre TIA in 2019.

TCCS have requested that the traffic impacts are considered on a wider basis for the current study, with the traffic modelling to extent further east including the remaining sections of Well Station Drive.

The traffic assessments again utilise a microsimulation model (Aimsun), building on the previous Calibre model to include the additional sections of the road network. The general structure and nature of the existing Calibre model has generally been retained for the west portion of the model.

For the purposes of the current study, the ‘core area’ has been expanded to include the following intersections:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive (as per previous model) Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street (as per previous model) Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West (now included in core area) Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent East (new) Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue (new)

This core area allows for more rigorous assessment of road network immediately adjacent to the proposed school site and of Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue. The remaining model area has generally been extended back one (1) intersection in key directions.

A summary of the proposed school location and the extents of the microsimulation model are presented in Figure 6 below.





Figure 6. Site Location & Model Extents (Aerial Source: Nearmap)

4.3 ROAD NETWORK

4.3.1 Well Station Drive

Well Station Drive is an arterial road extending in an east-west direction between Gungahlin Drive in the west and Horse Park Drive in the east.

In the vicinity of the subject site, Well Station Drive includes a single traffic lane in each direction, with sealed shoulders providing for on-road cycling.

Adjacent to the proposed school site, the intersection with Albatross Crescent West is controlled by a single lane roundabout with east-west off-road bicycle bypasses. The intersection with Kings Canyon Street is sign controlled (give-way) with left and right turn lanes provided on Well Station Drive.

A shared path is provided along the north side of Well Station Drive, adjacent to the existing residential properties within Harrison.

Well Station Drive has a posted speed limit of 80km/h.

Photographs of Well Station Drive adjacent to the subject site are provided in Figure 7 and Figure 8 below.


Western Portion – Previous Calibre

Model

Eastern Portion – Expanded Model

Core Area




Figure 7. Well Station Drive (View East) Figure 8. Well Station Drive (View West)

4.3.2 Flemington Road

Flemington Road is an arterial road extending in a north-south direction between Kate Crace Street in the north and Federal Highway in the south.

In the vicinity of the subject site, Flemington Road includes two traffic lanes and on-road bicycle lanes in each direction. In the section to the north of Well Station Drive, a service road is located on the east side of the road with various entry / exit points to the main Flemington Road carriageway.

The intersection of Flemington Road and Well Station Drive is controlled by traffic signals, which facilitates signalised pedestrian crossings at the intersection.

The Canberra Light Rail operates within the median along Flemington Road, with a stop located on the south side of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

A shared path is provided on the east side of the road to the south of the Well Station Drive intersection and on the west side of the road to the north of the Well Station Drive intersection.

A posted speed limit of 70km/h applies to Flemington Road.

Photographs of Flemington Road are provided in Figure 9 and Figure 10 below.

Figure 9. Flemington Road (View North) Figure 10. Flemington Road (View South)

4.3.3 Horse Park Drive

Horse Park Drive is a major arterial road extending in a north-south direction between Gungahlin Drive in the north and Federal Highway in the south (where it continues as Majura Parkway).

In the vicinity of the subject site, Horse Park Drive includes two traffic lanes and on-road bicycle lanes (sealed shoulders) in each direction.




The intersection with Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue is controlled by traffic signals, with movements to/from Bettong Avenue limited to left in / left out only.

A shared path is generally provided on the east side of road to the north of the Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection and on the west side of the road to the south of the Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection.

Horse Park Drive has a posted speed limit of 80km/h.

Photographs of Horse Park Drive are provided in Figure 11 and Figure 12 below.

Figure 11. Horse Park Drive (View South) Figure 12. Horse Park Drive (View North)

4.3.4 Albatross Crescent

Albatross Crescent is a local access street extending in a ‘loop’ configuration through the Harrison residential area, connecting to Well Station Drive at each end.

Albatross Crescent includes a single traffic lane in each direction separated by a centre median at the western end, with a typical local street cross section for the remaining length.

Albatross Crescent is subject to the default urban speed limit of 50km/h.

4.3.5 Kings Canyon Street

Kings Canyon Street is a local access street that extends generally in a north-south direction between Nullarbor Avenue in the north and Well Station Drive in the south.

In the vicinity of the subject site, Kings Canyon Street includes a single traffic lane in each direction.

Kings Canyon Street is subject to the default urban speed limit of 50km/h.

4.4 PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Public transport in the vicinity of the subject site is provided via the light rail services along Flemington Road and local bus routes.

A summary of the key public transport routes in the study area is provided in Table 1 and Figure 13 below.

Table 1. Existing Public Transport

Route Origin/ Destination Via Operating

Hours Frequency Proximity to Subject Site

Light Rail City – Gungahlin - 6:01am – 12:07am 5 – 15 mins 450m

Route 18 Gungahlin – Dickson

Franklin, Harrison, Mitchell

5:53am – 10:51pm 30 mins <100m




Route Origin/ Destination Via Operating

Hours Frequency Proximity to Subject Site

Route 21 Gungahlin – Throsby

Palmerston, Franklin, Harrison

5:54am – 10:04pm 30 mins 1,000m

Route 22 Gungahlin - Gungahlin

Throsby, Harrison, Franklin, Palmerston

5:57am – 10:30pm 30 mins 1,000m

A number of school bus routes also currently operate in the vicinity of the subject site, typically providing a single service at the AM and PM school peak times. The routes in the vicinity of the subject site include:

School Bus 1003 – John Paul College, Gungahlin, Throsby, Harrison, Franklin, Palmerston School Bus 1015 – Harrison School, Mother Teresa Primary School, Forde, Throsby School Bus 1020 – Merici College, Daramalan College, Emmaus Christian School, Gungahlin Place,

Franklin, Harrison School Bus 1023 – Merici College, Daramalan College, Emmaus Christian School, Bonner, Amaroo,

Gungahlin School Bus 1027 – Brindabella Christian College, Lyneham Primary School, Franklin, Harrison,

Gungahlin Place

Figure 13. Key Public Transport Routes (Aerial Source: Nearmap) 4.5 ACTIVE TRAVEL

4.5.1 Existing Facilities

A summary of the existing active travel infrastructure outlined in the Active Travel Practitioner Tool is shown in Figure 14 below.

Light Rail

Route 22

Route 21

Route 18





Figure 14. Existing Active Travel Infrastructure The key existing active travel infrastructure of the vicinity of the proposed school is as follows:

2.0m shared path extending in the northern verge of Well Station Drive along the southern boundary of the residential properties between Kings Canyon Street and Nullarbor Avenue.

2.5m shared path extending north-south along an open space corridor between Well Station Drive and Nullarbor Avenue.

On the south side of Well Station Drive, active travel infrastructure is limited to a short connection between Flemington Road and the bus stop approximately 100m east of the intersection.

4.5.2 Strategic Routes

The Active Travel Practitioner Tool outlines a number of key strategic routes in the vicinity of the subject site including:

Well Station Drive – Future main community route from Kings Canyon Street into the future Kenny suburb, adjacent to the proposed school site.

Old Well Station Road (track) – Future local community route.

A summary of the strategic active travel routes in the vicinity of the subject site are shown in Figure 15 below.





Figure 15. Strategic Active Travel Routes

4.5.3 Existing Walking & Cycling Demands

No data is available that quantifies the existing walking and cycling demands on the paths surrounding the subject site.

During the peak period site inspections undertaken for this project, pedestrian and cycling volumes were observed to be low, with no obvious preferred routes.

On this basis, for the purposes of analysis we have assumed a flat level of 5 pedestrians / hour and 2 cyclist / hour for each linkage surrounding the school site.

4.6 CRASH HISTORY

4.6.1 Overall Summary

Crash data has been sourced from Roads ACT for the 5-year period between 1/1/15 and 31/12/19. A summary of the crash locations for the 5-year period broken down into property damage, minor injury (medical treatment provided) and serious injury (hospitalisation) are provided in Table 2 below. A full copy of the historical crash data is provided at Appendix B.

Table 2. Overall Crash Data Summary (1/1/15 to 31/12/19)

Location Property Damage

Minor Injury

Serious Injury

Total Crashes

Flemington Road

Flemington Rd / Lysaght St 8 1 0 9

Flemington Rd btw Lysaght St and MRRC 2 0 0 2

Flemington Rd / MRMC Access 1 0 0 1

Flemington Rd btw MRMC Access and Well Station Dr 3 0 0 3

Flemington Rd / Well Station Dr 53 1 0 54

Flemington Rd btw Well Station Dr and Nullarbor Av 16 0 0 16

Flemington Rd / Nullarbor Av 30 2 0 32





Location Property Damage

Minor Injury

Serious Injury

Total Crashes

Well Station Drive

Hoskins St / Well Station Dr 24 2 1 27

Well Station Dr btw Hoskins St to Flemington Rd 4 1 0 5

Well Station Dr btw Flemington Rd to Kings Canyon St 2 0 0 2

Well Station Dr / Kings Canyon St 0 0 0 0

Well Station Dr btw Kings Canyon St to Albatross Cr W 2 0 0 2

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cr W 3 1 0 4

Well Station Dr btw Albatross Cr W to Albatross Cr E 3 0 0 3

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cr E 7 2 0 9

Well Station Dr btw Albatross Cr E to Nullarbor Cr 4 0 0 4

Well Station Dr / Nullarbor Cr 3 0 1 4

Well Station Dr btw Nullarbor Cr to Horse Park Dr 1 0 0 1

Horse Park Drive

Horse Park Dr / Federal Hwy (West off-ramp) 16 2 0 18

Horse Park Dr btw Federal Hwy West off-ramp and West on-ramp

10 1 0 11

Horse Park Dr / Federal Hwy (West on-ramp) 0 0 0 0

Horse Park Dr btw Federal Hwy West on-ramp and Well Station Dr

77 3 2 82

Horse Park Dr / Well Station Dr / Bettong Av 23 2 0 25

Horse Park Dr btw Well Station Dr and Mapleton Av 16 1 0 17

Horse Park Dr / Mapleton Av / Dugong Way 23 2 0 25

TOTAL 331 21 4 356

A total of 356 crashes have occurred in the overall study area, with the majority of crashes (93%) associated with property damage (no injury).

A total of 25 injury crashes occurred, with 21 minor injury crashes and 4 serious injury crashes.

The locations with the highest number of crashes are as follows:

Horse Park Drive: Between Federal Highway (west on-ramp) and Well Station Drive – 82 crashes Flemington Road / Well Station Drive – 54 crashes Flemington Road / Nullarbor Avenue – 32 crashes Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive – 27 crashes Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue – 25 crashes Horse Park Drive / Mapleton Avenue / Dugong Avenue – 25 crashes

4.6.2 Review of Key Intersection Crash Data

We have reviewed in further detail the crashes that occurred in the core area along Well Station Drive, in the vicinity of the school site between Flemington Road and Well Station Drive.

Table 3 to Table 5 review the years of the crashes, the crash types (RUM code) and surface conditions.




Table 3. Core Area Crashes – Year of Crashes

Location 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Flemington Rd / Well Station Dr 7 21 2 11 13

Well Station Dr - Flemington Rd to Kings Canyon St 0 1 0 0 1

Well Station Dr / Kings Canyon St 0 0 0 0 0

Well Station Dr - Kings Canyon St to Albatross Cres W 0 1 0 0 1

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres W 1 1 1 1 0

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres W to Albatross Cres E 1 0 0 2 0

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres E 0 2 5 2 0

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres E to Nullarbor Cres 0 2 1 1 0

Well Station Dr / Nullarbor Cres 0 1 2 1 0

Well Station Dr - Nullarbor Cres to Horse Park Dr 0 1 0 0 0

Horse Park Dr / Well Station Dr / Bettong Av 0 4 8 7 6

TOTAL 9 34 19 25 21

There is a level of variability associated with the years that the crashes occurred, with the smallest number (9 crashes – 8%) occurring in 2015 and the largest number (34 crashes – 31%) occurring in 2016. This peak was principally driven by the crashes at the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. We understand that light rail construction commenced in 2016, which may have influenced the higher crash rate observed.

Table 4. Core Area Crashes – Crash Types (RUM Code)

Location 104 202 301 302 303 803 Other

Flemington Rd / Well Station Dr 0 6 18 20 3 0 7

Well Station Dr - Flemington Rd to Kings Canyon St

0 0 1 0 0 0 1

Well Station Dr / Kings Canyon St 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Well Station Dr - Kings Canyon St to Albatross Cres W

0 0 2 0 0 0 0

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres W 2 0 0 0 0 0 2

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres W to Albatross Cres E

0 0 1 0 0 0 2

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres E 2 0 0 0 0 4 3

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres E to Nullarbor Cres

0 0 3 0 0 0 1

Well Station Dr / Nullarbor Cres 0 1 1 2 0 0 0

Well Station Dr - Nullarbor Cres to Horse Park Dr

0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Horse Park Dr / Well Station Dr / Bettong Av 0 0 17 3 1 0 4

TOTAL 4 7 44 25 4 4 20

Across the core area intersections, the most common crash type observed was RUM 301 (rear-end) and RUM 302 (left rear). These crashes accounted for 64% of the overall crashes that occurred.

The majority of the rear end crashes (RUM 301) occurred at the arterial road signalised intersection including Flemington Road / Well Station Drive (18 crashes) and Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive




/ Bettong Avenue (17 crashes). Rear end crashes are a typical crash type for signalised intersections given the stop/start nature of queuing.

The left rear crashes (RUM 302) also predominately at the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection, where slip lanes are provided on all corners.

Table 5. Core Area Crashes – Surface Conditions

Location Good Dry Surface

Loose Surface

Wet Surface

Flemington Rd / Well Station Dr 44 1 9

Well Station Dr - Flemington Rd to Kings Canyon St 1 0 1

Well Station Dr / Kings Canyon St 0 0 0

Well Station Dr - Kings Canyon St to Albatross Cres W 1 0 1

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres W 3 0 1

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres W to Albatross Cres E 3 0 0

Well Station Dr / Albatross Cres E 6 0 3

Well Station Dr - Albatross Cres E to Nullarbor Cres 4 0 0

Well Station Dr / Nullarbor Cres 4 0 0

Well Station Dr - Nullarbor Cres to Horse Park Dr 1 0 0

Horse Park Dr / Well Station Dr / Bettong Av 24 1 0

TOTAL 91 2 15

The majority of the crashes occurred with a ‘Good Dry Surface’ (84%), with only a minor number of crashes with a ‘Loose Surface’ (2%) and ‘Wet Surface (14%).

4.7 MICROSIMULATION MODELLING (AIMSUN)

The traffic impacts for this project have been assessed utilising a microsimulation model.

The microsimulation model has been prepared utilising Aimsun Next 20, the current version of the Aimsun microsimulation software package.

The model development and calibration & validation was detailed in a previous report titled ‘Microsimulation Calibration and Validation Report for East Gungahlin High School Kenny TIA’, dated 31/8/20). A summary of this is provided below.

4.7.1 Model Calibration and Validation Summary

The microsimulation model was built to replicate the study area in the vicinity of the proposed school, including Flemington Road, Well Station Drive and Horse Park Drive.

The previous microsimulation model developed by Calibre for the 2019 EGHS TIA was provided by TCCS for usage as part of this study. The development of the microsimulation model has built on the previous model developed in the Calibre Study which covers the west portion of the study area including Flemington Road and the western portion of Well Station Drive. The model has then been expanded to the east to include the remaining sections of Well Station Drive and Horse Park Drive between Mapleton Avenue / Dugong Way and Federal Highway.

Initially traffic survey data was collected in June 2020 for the whole study area (previous west portion and new east portion). This data was compared with the previous August 2019 data utilised in the previous Calibre study and discrepancies in traffic volumes were identified in each peak period. Discussions with TCCS indicated the June 2020 data was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore TCCS instructed the project team to utilise the August 2019 data for the current model.

A complete and consistent traffic data set is not available for August 2019; therefore, a range of data sources have been utilised to compile an estimate of the August 2019 volumes as follows:




August 2019 turning movement counts and queue lengths data (from previous Calibre study) SCATS data for August 2019 for the signalised intersections along Horse Park Drive Factoring of the June 2020 data against the August 2019 data for the unsignalised intersections of

Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue and Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent East

In view of the above, the data set utilised for the model includes a range of assumptions and factors to best estimate a historical time period in August 2019.

The microsimulation models have been developed for the following three (3) peak periods:

AM commuter peak (8am-9am) PM school peak (3pm-4pm) PM commuter peak (5:15pm-6:15pm)

For each peak period, a total of five (5) model replications have been run. Consistent with the RMS Traffic Modelling Guidelines the calibration / validation process has been undertaken on the median model replication in each peak period.

The layout and key network features of the west portion of the model (previous Calibre model) have generally been retained for this study, to ensure that the output for this portion of the model are generally similar.

The east portion of the model (new sections) has then been added to the west portion of the network. The road layout / geometry has been based on aerial photographs and site inspections. Additional zones have been added to the network (Zone 18 to Zone 26) to cover the new entry and exit points for the model.

The traffic volumes are based on O-D matrices for both light vehicles and heavy vehicles. The volume values for Zone 1-17 have been maintained as per the previous Calibre study. O-D matrix pairs for the new section of the model (Zone 18-26) have been based off the traffic volume data for the new east portion of the model. Traffic volumes in 15-minute periods have been used to generate the demand profiles for each O-D pair.

Public transport movements are based on the previous timetable utilised in the Calibre model, with extensions and new routes to suit the expanded model network.

The traffic signals on Horse Park Drive have been set to operate on a fixed cycle time with average phase times.

Pedestrians have not been specifically modelled, although the phases at the signalised intersection allow for key pedestrian movements.

Given that the model has only 1 route option between O-D pairs, route assignment is not required for this model.

The previous Calibre model adjusted inputs for turn speed, turn zone distances and final safety margin during the calibration process. These have been maintained in the current model with the addition of a minor adjustment to the queue discharge rate for the south approach to Flemington Road / Well Station Drive. Within the east portion of the model (new sections), adjustments to turn zone distances, queue discharge rates and traffic signal phase times have been made in the calibration process.

Calibration has been undertaken using the turning movement count data, with the target criteria in line with the RMS modelling guidelines and the approach utilised in the previous Calibre study as detailed in Table 6 below.

Table 6. Calibration Criteria

Model Area Criteria Target

Network-wide

GEH statistic < 5 > 85% of turning movement counts

R2 value for modelled vs observed turning movement counts > 0.90




Model Area Criteria Target

Core area

Flows < 99 – to be within 10 vehicles of observed

> 85% of turning movement counts

Flows 100 to 999 – to be within 10% of observed

Flows 1,000 to 1,999 – to be within 100 vehicles of observed

Flows >2,000 – to be within 5% of observed

R2 value for modelled vs observed turning movement counts > 0.95

A comparison of the modelled and observed turning movement counts, found the existing conditions models generally meet the above calibration targets across the three (3) analysis periods. However, the core area requirement in the AM Commuter Peak recorded 79% of turning counts and the core area requirement in the PM Commuter Peak recorded 72% of turning counts. The 85% target was close to being achieved in both of these peaks and it is considered acceptable given that the traffic volume data set has been establish from three (3) sources with a range of assumptions and factors.

Model validation was undertaken separately for the two (2) portions of the model, given the differing quality of the validation data.

For the west portion of the model (previous Calibre model) validation has occurred based on maximum queue lengths that were conducted in the correct model period of August 2019. The targets adopted were the same as the previous Calibre model as detailed in Table 7 below.

Table 7. Validation Criteria – West Portion of Model

Model area Criteria Target

Network-wide

Maximum modelled queue length within 4 vehicles of maximum observed queue length > 85% of queue lengths

Core area Maximum modelled queue length within 2 vehicles of maximum observed queue length > 85% of queue lengths

For the west portion of the model, the existing conditions models meet the network-wide across the three (3) analysis periods. The core area criteria are achieved in the AM commuter peak and PM School peak period; however, the PM commuter peak fall short by two (2) values.

For the east portion of the model, no validation data is available for the correct model period of August 2019. On this basis, the best available data has been utilised including queue length data from June 2020 and Google Maps API travel time predictions for 2020. Given the compromised validation data sets, the following aspirational targets were adopted.

Table 8. Validation Criteria – East Portion of Model

Model area Criteria Target

Network-wide

Maximum modelled queue length within 4 vehicles of maximum observed queue length > 85% of queue lengths

The following key results were observed for the validation process for the east portion of the model in each peak period:

AM Commuter Peak – Correlation with the June 2020 queue data was good, with 88% of modelled queues within 4 vehicles. In general, the modelled travel times showed reasonable correlation with the Google Maps travel time data, with the exception of the right turn from the north approach (Horse Park Drive to Well Station Drive). The modelled travel times for this right turn movement were higher than the Google Maps prediction. The model predictions require multiple cycles for some vehicles to complete the turn, whereas the Google Maps data suggests that vehicles can complete the turn in one cycle.

PM School Peak – Correlation with the June 2020 queue data was average (59% within 4 vehicles), with three (3) key data point outliers associated with northbound movements on Horse Park Drive (at each signalised intersection). The model results predicted lower queue lengths than the 2020




observations, however, the modelled traffic times in the northbound direction had excellent correlation with the Google Maps travel times. Recent spot queue length surveys undertaken in August 2020 showed results closer correlated to the model outputs.

PM Commuter Peak – 76% of modelled queue lengths were within 4 vehicles, again close to the aspirational 85% target. In general, the correlation with the Google Map travel times was good, however, similar to the AM peak the modelled travel time for the right turn from the north approach was higher than the Google Maps prediction. Again, the model predicts that some vehicles require multiple cycles to complete the right turn, whereas the Google Maps data predicts that vehicles can complete the turn in one cycle.

In view of the above, the model has been best calibrated with the available data. Neither of the validation data sets for the east portion of the model represent the modelled time period of August 2019 and are potentially compromised due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On this basis, the model is considered to be a reasonable estimation given the available data.

To assess the stability of the model, 20 replications in each peak period were simulated. These replications utilised random seed values to generate a range of outputs. The target criteria of coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.05 was adopted similar to the previous Calibre study. The model was found to be stable and within the target criteria in each peak period, noting that the travel time COV was at the upper end of the acceptable range most likely due to the long queueing behaviour in the model for north/westbound movements on Horse Park Drive approaching Federal Highway.

Further details relating to the model calibration and validation are presented in the Microsimulation – Model Calibration and Validation Report (31/08/2020) provided at Appendix C.

4.8 TRAFFIC CONDITIONS

The existing operation of the road network was assessed on a network wide basis (overall model) and in a more detailed manner for the key intersections in close vicinity of the school site.

A summary of the existing performance for the three (3) peak periods is provided below. Table 9 presents a summary of the network wide performance, whilst the key intersection performance is provided in Table 10.

It is noted that the performance summaries presented in this report reflect the average values across the five (5) replications simulated for each peak hour within each scenario. This differs from the performance summaries presented in the previous ‘Microsimulation – Model Calibration and Validation Report for East Gungahlin High School Kenny TIA’, dated 31/8/20), which reflected the results from a single, median, replication for each peak hour within each scenario.

The traffic demands adopted for the existing conditions are presented at Appendix D, while full results from the existing conditions model are presented at Appendix E.

Table 9. Network-Wide Performance Summary – Existing Conditions AM Commuter Peak

Performance Measure AM Commuter Peak PM School Peak PM Commuter Peak

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 28,227.99 87.34 18,190.39 66.34 26,940.93 72.79

VHT [hours] 550.99 2.96 288.02 2.22 556.96 2.54

Average Flow [veh/h] 8,048.20 21.62 5,919.00 19.78 8,181.20 17.08

Average Speed [km/h] 52.40 31.65 60.67 29.57 51.27 28.32

Average Density [veh/km] 8.60 0.02 4.52 0.02 9.17 0.02

Average Travel Time [s/km] 82.78 163.74 74.05 168.38 84.31 154.62

Average Delay Time [s/km] 37.17 57.55 26.68 56.00 38.71 45.29

Total Stops 15,962.20 115.00 6,220.00 91.20 18,837.40 93.60

Total Missed Turns 14.80 0.00 11.60 0.00 15.40 0.00

Vehicles Waiting to Enter [veh] 226.20 0.00 0.20 0.00 38.60 0.00




Table 10. Key Intersections Performance Summary – Existing Conditions

Approach AM Commuter Peak PM School Peak PM Commuter Peak

Delay LOS Queue Delay LOS Queue Delay LOS Queue

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive – Traffic Signals

S: Flemington Rd 36s C 50m 25s B 88m 20s B 69m

E: Well Station Dr 31s C 191m 26s B 183m 34s C 125m

N: Flemington Rd 22s B 119m 32s C 60m 34s C 55m

W: Well Station Dr 44s D 180m 21s B 121m 25s B 153m

TOTAL 29s C 191m 26s B 183m 26s B 153m

Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street – ‘Give-Way’ Control

E: Well Station Dr 3s A 7m 3s A 1m 3s A 0m

N: Kings Canyon St 1s A 19m 1s A 7m 2s A 8m

W: Well Station Dr 2s A 7m 2s A 5m 2s A 8m

TOTAL 3s A 19m 3s A 7m 3s A 8m

Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West - Roundabout


N: Albatross Cr W 2s A 27m 1s A 7m 1s A 7m



Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent East – Roundabout


N: Albatross Cr E 1s A 7m 1s A 7m 1s A 10m



Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue – ‘Give-Way’ Control

S: Well Station Dr 4s A 20m 2s A 9m 2s A 19m

N: Well Station Dr 6s A 6m 6s A 5m 6s A 14m

W: Nullarbor Av 14s A 85m 2s A 48m 4s A 40m


Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue – Traffic Signals

S: Horse Park Dr 17s B 71m 13s A 104m 20s B 211m

E: Bettong Av 9s A 13m 3s A 6m 2s A 2m

N: Horse Park Dr 35s C 318m 12s A 88m 18s B 79m

W: Well Station Dr 52s D 213m 20s B 89m 56s D 147m

TOTAL 34s C 318m 14s A 104m 24s B 211m

Under the existing conditions, all core intersections operate at LOS C or better in all three (3) analysis peak hours. A summary of the key performance measures at each core intersection is provided below:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: The intersection operates well in all three (3) peak hours. The west approach (Well Station Drive) is critical, in the AM commuter peak hour, with an average




delay of 44s (LOS D). The maximum queue length (191m) occurs in the through lane on the west approach (Well Station Drive), during the AM commuter peak hour.

Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: The intersection operates well with average delays of 3s or less (LOS A) on all approaches, during all three (3) peak hours. The maximum queue length (19m) occurs in the left-turn lane on the north approach (Kings Canyon Street) during the AM commuter peak hour.

Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West: The intersection operates well with average delays of 4s or less (LOS A) on all approaches, during all three (3) peak hours. The maximum queue length (44m) occurs on the east approach (Well Station Drive) during the AM commuter peak hour.

Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent East: The intersection operates well with average delays of 4s or less (LOS A) on all approaches, during all three (3) peak hours. The maximum queue length (22m) occurs on both the east and west approaches (both Well Station Drive), during both the AM and PM school peak hours.

Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue: The intersection operates well with average delays of 14s or less (LOS A), during all three (3) peak hours. The maximum queue length (85m) occurs in the right-turn lane on the west approach (Nullarbor Avenue) during the AM commuter peak hour.

Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue: The overall intersection operates at LOS C, however, the right turn from the north approach (Horse Park Drive) operates with long average delays (122s, LOS F). This is due to some vehicles having to wait multiple cycles to complete the turn. The maximum queue length for the right turn (128m), exceeds the length of the right turn lane. Other movements at the intersection generally operate well, with the other critical movement being the right turn from Well Station Drive (57s, LOS E). The maximum queue length in this lane (213m), extends back to block the Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection.




5. FUTURE CONDITIONS (BASE CASE) The future (base case) analysis assesses the operation of the surrounding road network in the future without the contribution of the EGHS.

The future (base case) scenario principally identifies the impact of general growth and key developments in the nearby area on the surrounding road network.

5.1 ASSESSMENT HORIZON YEARS

The future horizon years for assessment of the EGHS proposal have been confirmed with TCCS as 2023 and 2031. The 2023 horizon year represents the opening of the EGHS, whilst the 2031 horizon year represents the general full build out for the surrounding land uses.

5.2 TRAFFIC GROWTH AND NEARBY DEVELOPMENTS

A summary of the key developments surrounding the subject site that have been included in this modelling is provided below.

2023 – Opening of EGHS: o Kenny – 200 dwellings completed and occupied, and o Park and Ride – Completed and operating.

2031 – Full Build Out of Surrounding Area: o Kenny – 1,500 dwellings completed and occupied (full build out), and o Park and Ride – Completed and operating.

The following sections provide a summary of the allowances made for these key adjacent developments.

5.2.1 Background Traffic Growth (CSTM)

Background traffic volume growth on the broader road network due to general development and population growth has been estimated from the outputs of the Canberra Strategic Transport Model (CSTM).

Outputs from the CSTM were sourced for the horizon years of 2021 and 2031 for the AM and PM commuter peak periods. A copy of the model outputs is provided in Appendix F.

The CSTM outputs for 2031 included an allowance for the Kenny subdivision. However, these volumes were all allocated to a single access point at Albatross Crescent East, rather than the four (4) access points shown in the current concept plan provided as part of this study. Therefore, the volumes accessing the Kenny development were isolated from the remaining general growth and then redistributed across the correct four (4) access points to Kenny.

On this basis, the growth on the general road network has been estimated as follows:

The ‘entering’ and ‘exiting’ CSTM volumes were assessed at each model zone for the 2021 and 2031 CSTM outputs

The total volume ‘entering’ and ‘exiting’ were established by summing the volumes across all zones The CSTM volumes ‘entering’ and ‘exiting’ Kenny (Zone 29) were removed from the total volume The linear annual growth rate was calculated between 2021 and 2031 for the total volumes (without

the contribution from the Kenny volumes).

The background growth rates calculated using the above methodology are shown in Table 11 below, with a full summary provided in Appendix G.

Table 11. CSTM Background Growth Rates

Model Period Linear Annual Growth Rate 2023 Factor 2031 Factor

AM Commuter Peak 1.05% 1.04 1.13

PM School Peak 0.6% 1.02 1.07

PM Commuter Peak 0.6% 1.02 1.07




The above growth factors for 2023 and 2031 were applied to all zones across the 2019 OD matrices to account for the CSTM background growth. A furnessing process was applied to the matrices to converge the origin and destination volumes within the matrices.

5.2.2 Kenny Development

As described above, the CSTM volume analysis above was specifically developed to exclude the contribution of the Kenny development given that the CSTM only allocated Kenny volumes to a single access point on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent East.

On this basis, we have developed a specific traffic generation and distribution for Kenny to best reflect the current development yield and layout assumptions.

The following sections outline the key features of the Kenny analysis, with a full summary provided in Appendix H.

Kenny Layout and Development Yields The following key inputs has been provided in relation to Kenny for this assessment:

The current indicative layout for Kenny is represented by the concept plan (Option 3) shown in Figure 16 below.

Four (4) access points are proposed to the external road network including: o Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent East, o Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West, o Horse Park Drive (north), and o Horse Park Drive (south).

The total yield for the Kenny site includes 1,500 dwellings (600 low density and 900 medium density) and 5,000m2 GFA of commercial use (local centre).

Development of Kenny will occur on a staged basis, with the following yields predicted for the analysis horizon years:

o 2023 – 200 dwellings, no commercial development, and o 2031 – 1,500 dwellings and 5,000m2 commercial use.

Whilst a number of playing fields (ovals) are provided at the south-east corner of the site, the sporting activity associated with the playing fields typically occurs on weekday after the PM commuter peak or on weekends. On this basis, no traffic generation has been allocated to the playing fields for the purposes of this assessment.

Figure 16. Kenny – Potential Development Layout – Option 3




Public Transport Demands Given the large physical size of the Kenny development, we would expect that public transport services would be required to internally service Kenny to achieve the residential catchment requirements.

In terms of the arterial road network, it is expected that services will be extended to operate along Horse Park Drive, entering the Kenny subdivision at either the north or south proposed access points. On this basis, it is recommended that bus stops be provided at these new intersections to facilitate the future provision of public transport in the local area.

Walking & Cycling Demands We have made an allowance for active travel trips associated with Kenny, based on the following assumptions:

The overall mode split for Kenny has been assumed to be similar to the mode share identified for the Gungahlin region in the 2017 Household Travel Survey as follows:

‘Walking’ trips external to Kenny are principally expected to be limited to trips associated with East

Gungahlin High School and the primary school (given no other non-residential uses are located within a reasonable walking distance). The walking and cycling volumes from Kenny associated with the high school and primary school are accounted for in the above school analysis.

‘Cycling’ trips external to Kenny will be associated with commuter trips at the same times when the school is generating walking and cycling trips. The number of overall cycling trips has been estimated by proportioning the peak Kenny vehicle trips (which make up 55.5% of total trips) with the 1.1% mode share for cycling identified above. This results in the following cycling volumes:

o 2023 Scenario – 3 cycling trips/hour, and o 2031 Scenario – 34 cycling trips/hour.

For the purposes of this assessment we have conservatively assumed that all of these cycling trips travel west from Kenny to Flemington Road and then are split evenly north, west, and south.

A full summary of the above analysis is provided in Appendix V Traffic Generation Traffic generation for the Kenny development has been estimated based on the following:

Residential Dwellings – The traffic generation rates identified in the Estate Development Code for residential dwelling have been adopted including 8 trips/dwelling/day for the low density residential and 7 trips/dwelling/day for the medium density dwellings. The commuter peak periods volumes have been adopted as 10% of the daily volume, equating to 0.7-0.8 trips/dwelling/hour. For the PM school peak, the existing conditions traffic data for the existing Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West intersection was reviewed to determine the percentage volume between 3-4pm compared to the PM commuter peak, which equated to 61%. On this basis, a traffic generation rate of 0.43-0.49 trips/dwelling/hour was adopted for the PM school peak.

Local Centre – Traffic generation for the local centre commercial use has been estimated from the RMS Small Shopping Centre Data report. Specifically, the data for centres between 3,000m2 and 5,000m2 GLFA was reviewed with the 85th percentile values from this data set adopted for analysis. The leasable floor area has been assumed to be 80% (4,000m2) of the gross floor area of 5,000m2.

Community Centre – Due to a lack of available information at the time of the analysis, no specific traffic generation has been adopted for the proposed community centre within the Kenny estate.

In order to ensure that the non-residential traffic generation remains conservative, all vehicle trips associated with the non-residential components within Kenny, have been assumed to be generated externally to the Kenny estate.




A summary of the overall traffic generation for the Kenny development is shown in Table 12 below.

Table 12. Kenny Development – Adopted Traffic Generation

Model Period Size/No. Rate Volume

2023

AM Commuter Peak

Low Density Res 81 0.8 trips/dwelling 65

Medium Density Res 119 0.7 trips/dwelling 83

Commercial 0 7.48 trips/100m2 0

Total - - 148

PM School Peak




Total - 91

PM Commuter Peak




Total - 148

2031

AM Commuter Peak



Commercial 4,000 7.48 trips/100m2 299

Total - - 1,409

PM School Peak




Total - 1,150

PM Commuter Peak




Total - 1,702

In/Out Splits Typical residential in/out splits have been applied in the AM and PM commuter peaks, whilst the in/out splits for the existing Harrison catchment at Albatross Crescent West have been adopted for the PM school peak.

For the commercial component, the in/out splits identified for centres between 3,000m2 and 5,000m2 in the RMS Small Shopping Centre Data report have been adopted.

A summary of the in/out splits adopted for analysis are presented in Table 13 below.




Table 13. Kenny Development – In/Out Volume Splits

Model Period Residential Commercial

In Out In Out

AM Commuter Peak 20% 80% 56% 44%

PM School Peak 57% 43% 49% 51%

PM Commuter Peak 70% 30% 48% 52%

Hourly Distribution The distribution of traffic volumes across the peak hours was established through analysis of existing conditions data for the existing Harrison catchment at Albatross Crescent West. The adopted distributions are detailed in Table 14 below.

Table 14. Kenny Development – 15 Minute Volume Distribution

Model Period 15 Minute Time Periods

Period 1 Period 2 Period 3 Period 4

AM Commuter Peak 25% 21% 27% 27%

PM School Peak 20% 30% 28% 22%

PM Commuter Peak 22% 23% 27% 28%

Spatial Distribution The Kenny traffic volumes have been distributed through the surrounding road network based on the existing travel patterns of Harrison and Franklin residents, which represent similar proximate residential developments.

‘Journey to Work’ data from the 2016 ABS Census was utilised to establish these traffic patterns, with the various destination suburbs assigned a likely travel route based on the surrounding road network structure and general travel times.

A summary of the adopted traffic distribution for the Kenny traffic volumes is presented at Figure 17.

Figure 17. Kenny – Traffic Distribution (Aerial Source: Nearmap)

22%

4%

29%

2%

5%

2%

1%

36% Kenny




Access Point Usage The current concept plan includes four (4) access points to the external road network, with two (2) access points to Well Station Drive and two (2) access points to Horse Park Drive.

Given the large size of the Kenny site, the usage of the access points is governed by the location of the development on the site. On this basis, the usage of the access points has been assessed by dividing the overall site into three (3) smaller catchments as shown in Figure 18 below.

Different access point usage splits have been developed for the 2023 and 2031 horizon years, given that in 2023 only a limited internal road network is available and external access is limited to Z30 (Albatross Crescent West).

In 2031, the full Kenny internal road network is developed, and all four (4) external connections are available.

Figure 18. Kenny – Access Point Usage – Catchment Areas A summary of the adopted access point usage assumptions is provided in Table 15 below.

Table 15. Kenny Development – Access Point Usage

Origin / Destination Zone

Area A Area B Area C

Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30 Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30 Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30

2023

Z02 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z03 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z05 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z06 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z09 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z19 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z21 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z25 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Area A

Area B

Area C Z27

Z28 Z29

Z30




Origin / Destination Zone

Area A Area B Area C

Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30 Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30 Z27 Z28 Z29 Z30

2031

Z02 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z03 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z05 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z06 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z09 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 80% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z19 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 50% 50%

Z21 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Z25 100% 0% 0% 0% 10% 90% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

5.2.3 Park and Ride

Configuration and Yield A Park and Ride facility is proposed at the south-east corner of Flemington Road / Well Station Drive, to serve the adjacent Well Station Drive light rail stop.

The Park and Ride includes a total of 200 parking spaces with vehicle access proposed to Well Station Drive approximately 150m east of Flemington Road.

An indicative layout for the Park and Ride facility is provided in Figure 19 below.

Figure 19. Park and Ride – Indicative Layout Traffic Generation Traffic generation for the Park and Ride facility is based on the traffic generation profile for office developments, given the likely users of the Park and Ride / light rail will be predominantly office-based workers.

A summary of the traffic generation for the Park and Ride is provided in Table 16 below, while full details are provided at Appendix I. We note that the generation rate adopted is consistent with the approach in the previous Calibre TIA for the EGHS.




Table 16. Park and Ride – Traffic Generation

Model Period Size/No. Rate Volume

AM Commuter Peak

200 spaces

0.5 trips/space 100 trips

PM School Peak 0.27 trips/space 54 trips

PM Commuter Peak 0.5 trips/space 100 trips

The in/out splits adopted represent the general office worker trend for ‘in’ trips in the AM period and ‘out’ trips in the PM period, given the strong linkage with the typical working day.

AM Commuter Peak – 95% ‘In’ and 5% ‘Out’ PM School Peak – 21% ‘In’ and 79% ‘Out’ PM Commuter Peak – 10% ‘In’ and 90% ‘Out’

The distribution of trips associated with the Park and Ride has been undertaken based on a local catchment including Mitchell, Franklin, Harrison, Throsby, Kenny, Crace and Palmerston. A summary of the adopted Park and Ride catchment area is shown in Figure 20 below.

The proportion of trips to/from each suburb was determined by the predicted populations for the 2023 and 2031 horizon years.

Figure 20. Park and Ride – Catchment Area (Aerial Source: Nearmap)


The following sections describe the anticipated traffic conditions within the study area under the future scenarios without the proposed EGHS development. Given the relatively short timeframe between the two (2) future analysis years (i.e. 2023 and 2031), the results for the 2031 scenarios are presented first, to provide an overview of the total works required, to 2031, to maintain a safe and efficient road network within the study area. The results for the 2023 scenarios are then presented, to identify which Works Packages are required, in 2023, to maintain a safe and efficient road network within the study area.

Park and Ride Catchment

Park and Ride Facility




5.3.1 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the road upgrades adopted and the performance of the road network under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario.

5.3.1.1 Scenario Road Network

The road upgrades adopted under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario are required in order to provide access to future developments located within the study area. This includes Works Package A to provide access to the Park & Ride facility, and Works Packages B & G to provide access to the initial and latter stages of the Kenny development, respectively.

Works Package A – Park & Ride Access Works Package A includes a new sign-controlled ‘T’-intersection on Well Station Drive, between Flemington Road and Kings Canyon Street. This package of works is required to provide access to the proposed Park & Ride Facility.

The model represents these works as a priority-controlled ‘seagull’-intersection, located midway between the Flemington Road and Kings Canyon Street intersections on Well Station Drive, as shown at Figure 21 below. An auxiliary left-turn lane (90m length) and a channelised right-turn lane (60m length) provide access to the Park & Ride Facility, while vehicles exit the facility via a single lane, providing for both the left- and right-turns onto Well Station Drive. Median storage (approximately 6m length) is provided within the median, for vehicles exiting the facility and turning right. The model reflects this general arrangement irrespective of the cross-section of Well Station Drive adjacent to the Park & Ride Access (i.e. unduplicated: two-lane, two-way, or duplicated: four-lane, two-way).

Figure 21. Works Package A – Park & Ride Access (Unduplicated Well Station Drive)

New ‘Seagull’-Intersection




Works Package B – Kenny Access (2023) Works Package B includes a new fourth leg on the south side of the existing single-lane roundabout at Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive. This package of works is required to provide access to the initial stage (area C) of the proposed Kenny development.

The model represents these works as a two-lane, two-way collector road extending south from the Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive intersection, before turning east into the proposed Kenny development (immediately to the east of the proposed school site). The model assumes that a fourth leg can be constructed without further significant alterations to the existing roundabout as shown at Figure 22 below.

Figure 22. Works Package B – Kenny Access (2023)

Works Package G – Kenny Accesses (2031) Works Package G includes a new fourth leg on the southeast side of the existing single-lane roundabout at Albatross Crescent East / Well Station Drive, as well as two (2) new signalised ‘T’-intersections on Horse Park Drive, between Well Station Drive and Federal Highway. This works package is required to provide access to the latter stages (areas A & B) of the proposed Kenny development.

The model represents each of these accesses as a two-lane, two-way collector road extending from Well Station Drive or Horse Park Drive, into the proposed Kenny development as shown at Figure 23 below. The model assumes that the fourth leg at the Albatross Crescent East / Well Station Drive roundabout, can be constructed without further significant alterations to the existing roundabout.

New South Leg At Roundabout




Figure 23. Works Package G – Kenny Accesses (2031)

5.3.1.2 Network Wide Performance Summary

A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios is presented in Table 17 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2031 Base Case are presented at Appendix L, while full results from the 2031 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix M1.

Table 17. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 30,868.68 87.80 23,468.35 73.68 29,518.36 76.39

VHT [hours] 1,059.47 4.39 395.97 2.85 1,013.30 3.48






Total Stops 43,432.00 169.40 9,852.40 121.60 43,052.00 140.00


Vehicles Waiting to Enter [veh] 1,229.20 1.40 0.20 0.00 1,054.40 1.00

The network performance summaries for the 2031 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the additional traffic demands on the road network, compared to the existing conditions. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase (by 9.4%). The total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to significantly increase (by 92.3%). This reflects significant congestion as indicated by the significant

New Southeast Leg At Roundabout

New ‘T’-Intersection

New ‘T’-Intersection




decrease in average vehicle speeds (-27.9%) and the significant increase in the number of stops (172.1%).

5.3.1.3 Core Area Performance Summary

Table 18 below presents a summary of the intersection performance for the core area intersections along Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and Horse Park Drive.

Table 18. Core Area Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 211s F 187m 111s F 242m 322s F 486m

E: Well Station Dr 93s F 282m 25s B 242m 89s F 260m

N: Flemington Rd 45s D 234m 33s C 75m 29s C 60m

W: Well Station Dr 653s F 909m 28s B 179m 373s F 928m

TOTAL 156s F 909m 50s D 242m 217s F 928m

Well Station Drive / Park & Ride – ‘Give-Way’ Control

S: Park & Ride 65s E 6m 1s A 6m 396s F 95m

E: Well Station Dr 92s F 244m 4s A 19m 76s F 222m

W: Well Station Dr 1,106s F 202m 2s A 9m 15s B 26m

TOTAL 1,106s F 244m 4s A 19m 396s F 222m


E: Well Station Dr 249s F 721m 3s A 5m 60s E 265m

N: Kings Canyon St 698s F 24m 3s A 8m 46s D 13m


TOTAL 698s F 721m 3s A 10m 60s E 265m


S: Albatross Cr W 713s F 342m 3s A 23m 6s A 29m

E: Well Station Dr 390s F 965m 5s A 58m 6s A 74m

N: Albatross Cr W 20s B 61m 2s A 12m 3s A 12m


TOTAL 713s F 965m 5s A 58m 6s A 74m


S: Albatross Cr E 254s F 202m 3s A 36m 3s A 43m

E: Well Station Dr 56s D 255m 5s A 72m 5s A 67m












W: Nullarbor Av 142s F 169m 3s A 55m 4s A 39m



S: Horse Park Dr 23s B 79m 6s A 56m 4s A 25m


N: Horse Park Dr 11s A 100m 21s B 134m 21s B 118m

W: Well Station Dr 59s E 226m 18s B 107m 30s C 87m

TOTAL 22s B 226m 12s A 134m 10s A 118m

During the AM commuter peak hour under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario, a lack of capacity on the east approach (Well Station Drive) to the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive roundabout is expected to cause significant queueing and delays throughout the core area and to the north along Flemington Road, as shown at Figure 24 below.

Figure 24. 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades Scenario during the AM commuter peak hour

During the PM school and commuter peak hours, capacity constraints are expected to be more localised:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: o The south approach (Flemington Road) is expected to operate with average delays of 111s

and 322s (both LOS F) in the PM school and PM commuter peak hours, respectively. Furthermore, in the PM commuter peak hour, the queue on the south approach is expected to extend back to block the Flemington Road / MRMC intersection (486m queue in 390m of storage). These capacity constraints are primarily associated with the right-turn movement from this approach, which operates in a single lane and with limited green time due to the light rail priority.

o The east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to operate with an average delay of 89s (LOS F) in the PM commuter peak hour. Queues on this approach are expected to extend back to block the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection during both the PM school and PM commuter peak hours (242m and 260m queues, respectively, in 155m storage).




The lack of capacity on this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

o The west approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to operate with an average delay of 373s (LOS F) in the PM commuter peak hour. The lack of capacity on this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

Well Station Drive / Park & Ride: o The south approach (Park & Ride) is expected to operate with average delays of 396s (LOS

F) during the PM commuter peak hour. This delay is due to the intersection being blocked by westbound vehicles along Well Station Drive.

o The east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to operate with an average delay of 76s (LOS F) in the PM commuter peak hour. Furthermore, in the PM commuter peak hour, the queue on the east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to extend back to block the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street intersection (222m queue in 155m storage). These delays and queues are an extension of those on the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

5.3.1.4 Key External Intersections Performance Summary

It is noted that the vehicle arrival patterns at these intersections do not necessarily reflect real-world conditions and as such, are presented below to provide context to the performance of the core area intersections. To assess the impacts of road upgrades at these external intersections, additional, more detailed modelling would be required.

A summary of the performance of key intersection on the periphery of the model (outside the core area) are presented at Table 19 below.

Table 19. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak

Well Station Dr / Hoskins St Delays Acceptable Delays

Horse Park Dr / Mapleton Av / Dugong Wy Delays Acceptable Acceptable

Horse Park Dr / Kenny Northeast Access Rd Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable

Horse Park Dr / Kenny Southeast Access Rd Delays Acceptable Acceptable

Horse Park Dr / Federal Hwy (West Interchange) Delays Acceptable Delays & Queues

Under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:

Well Station Drive / Hoskins Street: The Well Station Drive / Hoskins Street intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the west approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. It was noted that increased traffic demands along Well Station Drive are likely to result in increased delays at the intersection. In the AM commuter peak hour, it is expected that the demand for the right-turn movements from the north and west approaches will significantly limit the capacity of the east approach.

Horse Park Drive / Mapleton Avenue / Dugong Way: The Horse Park Drive / Mapleton Avenue / Dugong Way intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the north approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection. It was noted that increased traffic demands along Horse Park Drive during the AM commuter peak hour are likely to result in increased delays at the intersection, particularly on the east, north and west approaches.

Horse Park Drive / Kenny Southeast Access Road: The Horse Park Drive / Kenny Southeast Access Road intersection was found to operate with unacceptable delays and long queues on the north approach (Horse Park Drive) during the AM commuter peak hour. This is primarily due to downstream effects from the Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange).

Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange): The Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange) intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the south




approach to the Horse Park Drive / Southeast Access Road intersection. It is noted that the model does not include the two (2) signalised intersections immediately east of Federal Highway and on this basis, the signal timing has not been optimised for the increased traffic demands. Under these increased traffic demands, increased delays are expected at the intersection, particularly on the south and west approaches during the AM commuter peak hour and on the east approach during the PM commuter peak hour.

5.3.2 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the recommended road upgrades adopted and the performance of the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario.


The 2031 Base Case with Recommended Road Upgrades includes Works Packages A, B and G, as adopted in the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.1.1, page 28) to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and Kenny development, respectively. Also included are Works Packages C, D, H, I, J and K to achieve acceptable operating conditions under the 2031 Base Case traffic demands by increasing capacity at key locations on the arterial road network throughout the study area.

Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to Kings Canyon Street Works Package C includes the duplication of Well Station Drive, between Flemington Road and Kings Canyon Street, to provide a typically four-lane, two-way midblock cross-section. This package of works is recommended primarily to address the limited capacity on the east and west approaches at the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection, through the construction of additional through traffic lanes in the eastbound and westbound directions at the intersection. The duplication has been extended to the east, through the Park & Ride Access (Works Package A) and to the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection to address the geometric constraints imposed by these closely spaced intersections (i.e. insufficient distance between intersections to provide tapers to open and close added lanes).

The model represents these works as a typically four-lane, two-way midblock cross-section along Well Station Drive, from approximately 100m west of Flemington Road, to approximately 100m east of Kings Canyon Street as shown at Figure 25 below. It is noted that these extents have been adopted from a traffic modelling perspective and are not specifically based on the geometric requirements of the relevant design standards. The actual extents of the duplication works will be confirmed as part of the civil engineering design of this works package. It is noted that the high-angle left-turn (HALT) lane on the east approach has been replaced by a signalised left-turn lane due to constraints imposed by a range of existing infrastructure on the southeast corner of this intersection (including a catenary pole for the light rail). Furthermore, it is noted that the model includes priority-controlled, ‘seagull’-intersections, with two (2) through traffic lanes in each direction along Well Station Drive, at both the Park & Ride Access and Kings Canyon Street intersections.

Figure 25. Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to Kings Canyon Street

Four-lane, two-way Midblock cross-section




Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach Works Package D includes a second right-turn lane on the west approach to the Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection. This package of works is recommended to address the limited capacity of this right-turn movement from Well Station Drive onto Horse Park Drive.

The model represents these works as a second right-turn lane on the west approach to the Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection as shown at Figure 26 below. The added right-turn lane is modelled with a length of approximately 115m, maintaining the existing priority-controlled, ‘seagull’-intersection at Nullarbor Avenue / Well Station Drive. Furthermore, the western departure from the Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection has been maintained as a single lane.

Figure 26. Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach

Works Package H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on South Approach Works Package H includes a second right-turn lane on the south approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. This package of works is recommended to address the limited capacity of this right-turn movement from Flemington Road onto Well Station Drive.

The model represents these works as a second right-turn lane on the south approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection as shown at Figure 27 below. The added right-turn lane is modelled with a length of approximately 85m.

Additional (Second) Right-Turn Lane




Figure 27. Works Package H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on South Approach

Works Package I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals Works Package I includes the signalisation of the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive intersection. Given the location of this intersection outside the core area of the model, this works package has been included in the model solely to achieve the acceptable performance of the road network (i.e. prevent queues from this intersection extending back to foul the core area of the model) and is not recommended for construction without further analysis.

The model represents these works as a signalised cross-intersection with three (3) approach lanes (including a high-angle left-turn) and two (2) departure lanes on the southern leg, five (5) approach lanes and three (3) departure lanes on the east leg, two (2) approach and two (2) departure lanes on the north approach and six (6) approach and three (3) departure lanes on the west leg. The east and west approaches each provide three (3) through traffic lanes, with the west approach also providing dual (2) right-turn lanes as shown at Figure 28 below. Otherwise, the intersection is modelled to operate with single diamond overlap phasing on the east and west approaches and split approach phasing on the north and south approaches.

Additional (Second) Right-Turn Lane




Figure 28. Works Package I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive : Traffic Signals

Works Package J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to Flemington Road Works Package J includes the duplication of Well Station Drive, between Hoskins Street and Flemington Road, to provide a typically four-lane, two-way midblock cross-section. This package of works has been included in the model to address geometric constraints, given the additional eastbound and westbound traffic lanes at both ends of this section, at Flemington Road (Works Package C) and Hoskins Street (Works Package I).

The model represents these works as a typically four-lane, two-way cross midblock cross-section along Well Station Drive, from approximately 100m east of Hoskins Street to approximately 100m west of Flemington Road as shown at Figure 29 below.

Signalised Intersection




Figure 29. Works Package J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to Flemington Road

Works Package K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway: Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane Works Package K includes a third through traffic lane in the eastbound direction at the western intersection of the Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway interchange. Given the location of this intersection outside the core area of the model, this works package has been included in the model solely to achieve the acceptable performance of the road network (i.e. prevent queues from this intersection extending back to foul the new signalised intersections on Horse Park Drive (Works Package G) and is not recommended for construction without further analysis.

The model represents these works as a third through traffic lane in the eastbound direction at the western intersection of the Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway interchange as shown at Figure 30 below.

Figure 30. Works Package K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway: Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane

Four-lane, two way Midblock Cross-section

Additional (Third) Eastbound Lane





A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrade scenarios is presented at Table 20 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2031 Base Case are presented at Appendix L, while full results from the 2031 Base Case with Recommended Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix M2.

Table 20. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 35,231.14 95.57 23,510.81 75.46 31,214.54 76.56

VHT [hours] 699.15 4.00 399.44 3.00 821.29 3.03






Total Stops 21,240.80 156.80 9,945.40 125.80 32,416.80 119.60



The network performance summaries for the 2031 Base Case with Recommended Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the recommended road upgrades on the road network, compared to the 2031 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to significantly increase (by 14.1%) while the total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to significantly decrease (by -34.0%). The average vehicle speed is expected to significantly increase (by 30.4%), while the number of stops significantly decreases (by -51.1%).



Table 21. Core Area Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 44s D 47m 34s C 73m 25s B 64m

E: Well Station Dr 44s D 248m 28s B 114m 39s C 148m


W: Well Station Dr 33s C 131m 25s B 103m 51s D 223m

TOTAL 35s C 248m 30s C 114m 37s C 223m






Well Station Drive / Park & Ride – ‘Give Way’ Control

S: Park & Ride 1s A 6m 1s A 6m 1s A 7m




Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street – Traffic Signals





Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West – Traffic Signals

S: Albatross Cr W 12s A 53m 3s A 24m 5s A 29m






S: Albatross Cr E 3s A 51m 3s A 40m 3s A 40m





Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue – Traffic Signals






S: Horse Park Dr 23s B 69m 6s A 55m 4s A 32m



W: Well Station Dr 26s B 116m 19s B 49m 24s B 45m

TOTAL 16s B 116m 12s A 134m 9s A 116m

The aforementioned road network upgrades significantly improve the performance of the road network under the 2031 Base Case traffic demands. A summary of the remaining minor capacity issues for the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario is as follows:




Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: o The queue on the east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to extend back to block

the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection (248m queue in 155m of storage), during the AM commuter peak hour. The provision of ‘Keep Clear’ linemarking across the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection will permit vehicles to make the right-turn from Well Station Drive into the Park & Ride, despite a queue of westbound vehicles.




Table 22. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak

Well Station Dr / Hoskins St Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable



Horse Park Dr / Kenny Southeast Access Rd Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable


Under the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:


Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange): The Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange) intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the south approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection. It is noted that the model does not include the two (2) signalised intersections immediately east of Federal Highway and on this basis, the signal timing has not been optimised for the increased traffic demands. Under these increased traffic demands, increased delays are expected at the intersection, particularly on the south and west approaches during the AM commuter peak hour and on the east approach during the PM commuter peak hour.

5.3.3 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the road upgrades and the performance of the road network under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario.


The road upgrades adopted under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario are required in order to provide access to future development located within the study area. This includes Works Packages A and B, as adopted under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.1.1, page 28) to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and the initial stage of the proposed Kenny development, respectively.





A summary of the overall network wide operation for the in the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenario is presented in Table 23 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2023 Base Case are presented at Appendix J, while full results from the 2023 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix K1.

Table 23. Network-Wide Performance Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 29,742.76 95.74 19,211.14 75.64 27,522.34 76.76

VHT [hours] 590.70 3.91 303.21 2.75 614.65 2.92






Total Stops 17,378.00 156.60 6,588.40 118.40 22,122.80 114.80



The network performance summaries for the 2023 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the additional traffic demands on the road network, compared to the existing conditions. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase (by 5.4%), along with a corresponding increase (of 7.2%) in the total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT). This reflects a decrease in average vehicle speeds (of -1.4%) and an increase in the number of stops (8.9%).


Table 24 below presents a summary of the intersection performance for the core area intersections along Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and Horse Park Drive in the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario.

Table 24. Core Area Performance Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)





E: Well Station Dr 27s B 196m 26s B 176m 37s C 186m


W: Well Station Dr 39s C 183m 21s B 118m 25s B 183m

TOTAL 28s B 196m 27s B 176m 27s B 186m






























W: Nullarbor Av 67s E 152m 2s A 44m 5s A 42m

TOTAL 67s E 152m 6s A 44m 6s A 42m


S: Horse Park Dr 25s B 81m 18s B 155m 20s B 207m



W: Well Station Dr 65s E 226m 19s B 96m 32s C 119m

TOTAL 24s B 226m 19s B 155m 22s B 207m

Under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following localised capacity constraints were identified at core intersections:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: o Queues on the east approach (Well Station Drive) are expected to extend back to block the

Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection during each of the three analysed peak hours (196m, 176m and 186m queues, respectively, in 155m storage). The lack of capacity on




this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue: o Queues on the west approach (Well Station Drive) are expected to extend back to block the

Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection (226m queue in 180m storage). This is primarily due to a lack of capacity for the right-turn movement from this approach.


It is noted that the vehicle arrival patterns at the external intersections do not necessarily reflect real-world conditions and as such, the intersection performance summary is presented below only to provide context to the performance of the core area intersections. In order to fully assess the impacts of road upgrades at these external intersections, additional, more detailed modelling would be required.

Table 25 below presents a high-level summary of the performance of key intersection on the periphery of the model (outside the core area).

Table 25. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 Base Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak




Under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:


Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange): The Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange) intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the south approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection. It is noted that the model does not include the two (2) signalised intersections immediately east of Federal Highway and on this basis, the signal timing has not been optimised for the increased traffic demands. Under these increased traffic demands, increased delays are expected at the intersection, particularly on the south approach during the AM commuter peak hour and on the east approach during the PM commuter peak hour.

5.3.4 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the recommended road upgrades adopted and the performance of the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario.


Works Packages A and B, as adopted in the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.3.1, page 41) have been retained to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and Kenny development, respectively.

Also included under the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario are Works Packages C and D, as adopted in the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.2.1, page 34). These works packages have again been adopted to achieve acceptable operating conditions under the 2023 Base Case traffic demands by increasing capacity at key locations on the arterial road network throughout the study area.




Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to Kings Canyon Street As aforementioned, under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario, capacity constraints were identified on the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection (queues blocking the Park & Ride Access). On this basis, it is primarily recommended to provide an additional westbound through traffic lane at the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection by 2023. Furthermore, given that an additional eastbound traffic lane is recommended to be provided by 2031, it is considered appropriate to bring forwards the construction of the eastbound through traffic lane (from 2031 to 2023) to reduce the costs and impacts of construction. On this basis, Works Package C, as previously described (section 5.3.2.1, page 34), is recommended to achieve the acceptable performance of the road network and to minimise the overall costs and impacts of construction.

Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach Under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario, capacity constraints were identified on the west approach to the Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersection (queues blocking Nullarbor Avenue). On this basis, it is recommended to implement Works Package D, as previously described (section 5.3.2.1, page 34), to achieve the acceptable performance of the road network.


A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrade scenarios is presented in Table 26 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2023 Base Case are presented at Appendix J, while full results from the 2023 Base Case with Recommended Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix K2.

Table 26. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 29,906.95 95.74 19,248.33 75.09 27,522.95 76.22

VHT [hours] 579.12 3.79 302.39 2.73 613.35 2.89






Total Stops 16,730.20 150.20 6,557.40 118.20 22,143.60 113.60



The network performance summaries for the 2023 Base Case with Recommended Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the recommended road upgrades on the road network, compared to the 2023 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase marginally (by 0.6%) while the total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to decrease (by -2.0%). This reflects an increase in the average vehicle speed (by 1.9%) and a decrease in the number of stops (by -3.7%).






Table 27. Core Area Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)








TOTAL 28s B 135m 26s B 115m 26s B 89m





































TOTAL 16s B 132m 17s B 137m 22s B 206m

All core intersections are expected to operate with acceptable delays and queues during each of the three (3) peak hours under the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario.



A high-level summary of the performance of key intersection on the periphery of the model (outside the core area) are presented in Table 28 below.

Table 28. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 Base Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak




Under the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:






6. FUTURE CONDITIONS (EGHS CASES) The future (EGHS case) analysis assesses the operation of the surrounding road network in the future with the contribution of the EGHS.

The future (EGHS case) scenario identifies the impact of general growth, key developments in the nearby area and the proposed EGHS development on the surrounding road network.

6.1 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT TRAVEL DEMANDS

As previously detailed (Section 2), the proposed development is for an 800-student high-school, to begin operation in 2023. Allowances have also been made for an additional 200 high-school students, plus the construction of a 750-student primary school and a 44-place pre-school on the subject site. The following sections present the anticipated public transport, active travel and traffic demands associated with the proposed development along with the proposed access arrangements.

6.1.1 Public Transport Demands

The level of student use of public transport has been estimated based on data for the existing mode split for High Schools across Canberra, as shown in Figure 31 below.

Figure 31. High School Across Canberra – Existing Mode Split To determine the likely split between light rail and bus usage, recent ‘MyWay’ data for the Harrison School has been utilised as detailed in Table 29 below. For the purposes of this assessment, the average split for the two peak periods has been adopted.

Table 29. Harrison School – MyWay Data – Student Light Rail / Bus Usage

Mode AM School Peak PM School Peak Average of Peak Periods

Bus 14 (18%) 21 (19%) 18 (18%)

Light Rail 65 (82%) 91 (81%) 78 (82%)

Total 79 (100%) 112 (100%) 96 (100%)

The future primary school has a catchment that this is limited to the adjacent Kenny development. On this basis, we would expect non-vehicle trips for the primary school to be driven by walking / cycling rather than public transport (based on the close proximity). On this basis, the primary school and the




pre-school have been assumed to generate negligible public transport volumes and have not been included in this analysis.

Based on the above data, an estimate of the EGHS public transport usage for the 2023 and 2031 design years is shown in Table 30 below.

Table 30. EGHS – Public Transport Volumes

Mode 2023 2031

Students 800 1,000

Public Transport Trips (27% of Students) 216 270

Bus Trips (18% of PT Trips) 40 49

Light Rail (82% of PT Trips) 176 221

6.1.2 Active Travel Demands

The likely demand for walking and cycling trips has been estimated based data for existing mode split for schools across Canberra. For sensitivity testing, an aspirational mode split of 30% walking/cycling and 30% public transport has also been assessed, representing the potential upper limit for walking, and cycling trips. This aspirational mode split was agreed at a consultation meeting with TCCS during the development of the Transport Impact. Minutes of this meeting are provided at Appendix U.

A summary of the estimated trip generation is shown in Table 31 below.

Table 31. EGHS – Active Travel Volumes

Mode 2023 2031

Existing Mode Split

Aspirational Mode Split

Existing Mode Split

Aspirational Mode Split

High School

Students 800 1,000

Walking 160 184 200 230

Cycling 24 56 30 70

Light Rail 176 196 221 245

Bus 40 44 49 55

Primary School

Students 0 750

Walking 0 0 79 143

Cycling 0 0 30 83

The route choice for active travel trips has been based on the school catchment populations and the likely active travel routes to these catchments.

The indicative school catchment, provided by the Education Department is presented at Figure 32 below, includes Forde, Throsby, Franklin, Gungahlin and Kenny. It is important to note that the catchment does not currently include any areas to the south of the proposed school site. Table 32 below summarises the proportion of trips likely to be associated with each suburb in the catchment based on population.




Figure 32. EGHS – Indicative EGHS Catchment Area (Aerial Source: Nearmap) Table 32. EGHS – Active Travel Trips – Proportion of Trips by Suburb

Mode 2023 2031

Population Percentage Population Percentage

High School

Forde 2,866 19% 2,866 15%

Throsby 2,500 16% 2,500 13%

Franklin 6,370 42% 6,370 34%

Gungahlin 3,041 20% 3,041 16%

Kenny 520 3% 3,900 21%

Primary School

Kenny 520 100% 3,900 100%

The key walking and cycling desire lines have been assessed to each of the school catchments based on existing facilities and general accessibility. A summary of the key desire lines is shown in Figure 33 below.

Kenny

Throsby

Forde

Franklin

Gungahlin (50%)

EGHS




Figure 33. Active Travel Desire Lines (Aerial Source: Nearmap) Based on the above inputs and assumptions, the peak hour active travel volumes have been estimated for the key linkages in the vicinity of the proposed school site, as shown in Figure 34 below.

Figure 34. EGHS Generated Active Travel Peak Hour Volumes Given the above trips are generated by school children, for the purpose of this assessment it is assumed that all walking and cycling trips will occur on the off-road facilities rather than on-road.

A full summary of the active travel volume analysis is provided in Appendix V.

Legend:Existing Mode SplitAspirational Mode Split

W Walking VolumeC Cycling Volume

NULLABOR AV NULLABOR AV

W C W C W C W C W C W C2023 49 7 56 17 2023 16 2 18 6 2023 37 6 42 132031 50 8 58 18 2031 16 2 19 6 2031 38 6 43 13

W C W C W C W C W C W C2023 33 5 38 12 2023 49 7 56 17 2023 20 3 23 72031 34 5 39 12 2031 50 8 58 18 2031 20 3 23 7

WELL STATION DR WELL STATION DR

W C W C2023 225 7 252 17 KENNY COLLECTOR2031 271 8 303 18

W C W C2023 5 1 6 22031 121 6 191 15

FLEM

INGT

ON

RD

HOSK

INS

ST

NULL

ABO

R AV

HORS

E PA

RK D

R

OLD

WEL

L STA

TIO

N

ALBA

TRO

SS C

R W

ALBA

TRO

SS C

R E

SCHOOL

Proposed School

Throsby

Kenny

Throsby / Forde /

Gungahlin

Franklin / Forde /

Gungahlin

Franklin




6.1.3 Traffic Demands

6.1.3.1 Traffic Generation

The principle source of traffic generation rates for primary and secondary school is the RMS Trip Generation Surveys Schools Analysis Report.

This report summarises a series of traffic generation surveys undertaken across 22 schools in metropolitan and regional NSW in both the government (public) and private sectors.

The EGHS is a government (public) school and therefore we have reviewed the survey results for schools that fall into the ‘Sydney Metro’ and ‘Public’ categories that represent the most comparable dataset. This sample includes:

Secondary Schools – 6 sites. Primary Schools – 4 sites.

An analysis of the data was undertaken and detailed in a memorandum dated 21/08/20, which is provided in Appendix N. The recommended traffic generation rates were adopted at the 70th percentile level as follows:

High School:

AM Peak – 0.64 trips/student PM Peak – 0.34 trips/student

Primary School:

AM Peak – 0.64 trips/student PM Peak – 0.57 trips/student

The above recommended traffic generation rates were endorsed by TCCS in the meeting held on 02/09/2020, as noted in the meeting minutes provided at Appendix O.

In the PM commuter peak period, a similar approach to the previous Calibre EGHS TIA has been adopted, whereby 48% of the PM school peak traffic generation occurs.

For the pre-school component, the RMS Validation Trip Generation Surveys Childcare Centres was utilised for ‘pre-school’ surveys. Similar to the high school / primary school analysis, the rates adopted were the 70th percentile of the data set.

A summary of the overall traffic generation for the 2023 and 2031 scenarios is provided in Table 33 and Table 34 below, while full details are provided at Appendix P.

Table 33. EGHS – 2023 Traffic Generation

Component Size Rate Volume

AM Commuter Peak

High School 800 0.64 trips/student 515 trips

PM School Peak


PM Commuter Peak





Table 34. EGHS – 2031 Traffic Generation

Model Size Rate Volume

AM Commuter Peak

High School 1,000 0.64 trips/student 644 trips

Primary School 750 0.64 trips/student 482 trips

Pre-School 44 0.36 trips/student 16 trips

Total - - 1,142 trips

PM School Peak



Pre-School 44 0.54 trips/student 24 trips

Total - - 793 trips

PM Commuter Peak



Pre-School 44 0.00 trips/student -

Total - 197 trips

6.1.3.2 Staff Trips in Peak Periods

Staff movements to/from the school do not necessarily align with the overall peak periods. This is due to staff needing to arrive and be prepared for the school day prior to the commencement in the AM period and finalising the daily activities after the end of the school day in the PM peak period.

On this basis, we have adopted the following level of staff movement during the peak periods.

Table 35. EGHS – Staff Trips in Peak Hours

Model Period High School Primary School Pre-School

AM Commuter Peak 80% 80% 80%

PM School Peak 20% 40% 80%

PM Commuter Peak 60% 40% 0%

6.1.3.3 In/Out Splits

The combined in/out splits for the school movements have been sourced from the RMS reports identified in the traffic generation sections above.

The staff in/out splits have been estimated based on typical arrival and departure patterns, with the student trip splits calculated from the overall split and the adopted staff split.

A summary of the adopted in/out splits is provided in Table 36 below.




Table 36. EGHS – In/Out Splits

Component Combined Staff Students

In Out In Out In Out

AM Commuter Peak

High School 57% 43% 90% 10% 52% 48%

Primary School 52% 48% 90% 10% 46% 54%

Pre-School 64% 36% 100% 0% 58% 43%

PM School Peak

High School 42% 58% 20% 80% 44% 57%

Primary School 49% 51% 20% 80% 51% 49%

Pre-School 62% 38% 0% 100% 70% 30%

PM Commuter Peak

High School 42% 58% 20% 80% 55% 45%

Primary School 34% 66% 30% 70% 80% 20%

Pre-School - - - - - -

6.1.3.4 Trip Linking

Trips to/from the school can occur from a number of origins / destinations. Two key situations have been reviewed for the purpose of this analysis, as follows:

School Trips Combined with Work Trips – A portion of trips to school will be associated with parents dropping off children on their way to/from school. Linked work/school trips will have differing traffic distributions in the surrounding road network due the variation in ‘home’ and ‘work’ locations.

Combined Education Trips – The proposed EGHS will include three (3) level of education facilities including high school, primary school, and pre-school. There will be a level of trips that are combined, with parents dropping off or picking up students at more than one of the schools in the same trip. This results in an overall reduction in the total number of trips.

To determine the number of trips associated with the above situations, we have reviewed the Victorian Government ‘VISTA’ household travel surveys. The Victorian data has been utilised given the lack of comparable data publicly available for the ACT. The data has been reviewed based on origin and destinations including ‘home’, ‘work’ and ‘school’.

A summary of the data utilised for input in the school traffic generation is presented in Table 37 below.

Table 37. EGHS – Linked Trips

Origin Destination High School Primary School Pre-School

AM Commuter Peak

Home

School

91% 86% 71%

Other 4% 4% 5%

School (other) 5% 10% 24%

School

Home 39% 45% 43%

Other 47% 47% 29%





Origin Destination High School Primary School Pre-School

PM School Peak

Home

School

55% 69% 41%

Other 30% 23% 28%


School

Home 77% 80% 64%

Other 10% 14% 7%


PM Commuter Peak

Home

School

48% 34% 39%

Other 44% 59% 49%


School

Home 93% 80% 91%

Other 5% 14% 0%


6.1.3.5 Trip Distribution – Staff Trips

The distribution of staff trips has been based on the 2016 ABS Census information for the ‘place of usual residence’ for workers in ‘Secondary Education’, ‘Primary Education’ and ‘Pre-school Education’.

Each SA2 area was assigned a likely travel route to the school, with the number of workers residing in each SA2 utilised to determine a percentage split.

A summary of the staff traffic distribution to the zone in the model is provided in Table 38 below. Note, the zones with no staff traffic distribution have not been shown in the table.

Table 38. EGHS – Staff Traffic Distribution

Model Zone High School Staff Primary School Staff Pre-School Staff


Z02 10.2% 10.2% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Z05 62.8% 62.8% 64.0% 64.0% 53.2% 53.2%

Z06 4.4% 4.4% 2.8% 2.8% 6.4% 6.4%

Z09 2.2% 2.2% 5.2% 5.2% 9.6% 9.6%

Z19 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 11.7% 11.7%

Z21 8.8% 8.8% 13.9% 13.9% 19.1% 19.1%

Z24 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%

Z25 8.8% 8.8% 6.7% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Z26 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

6.1.3.6 Trip Distribution – Student Trips

The distribution of student trips is based on ‘home’ trips and linked ‘linked work’ trips.

For ‘home’ trips, as the final catchment area for EGHS has not yet been finalised, Education have provided an indicative catchment area to be utilised for this study. The indicative catchment includes Kenny, Franklin, Throsby, Forde and 50% of student population of Gungahlin. A summary diagram of the indicative catchment area is provided at Figure 32 (page 50).




Each suburb has been reviewed at an SA1 level to determine the 2023 and 2031 populations and likely travel routes.

Different distributions have been developed for 2023 and 2031 given the change in population, particularly associated with the development of Kenny between the two horizon years.

For the primary school and pre-school components, the proposed catchment area is only Kenny. Therefore, all trips will travel to/from Kenny via the internal collector road network (Z30).

A summary of the distribution of ‘home’ student trips is summarised in Table 39 and Table 40 below.

Table 39. EGHS – Student ‘Home’ Trips Traffic Distribution (2023)

Model Zone High School Primary School Pre-School


Z05 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z06 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z07 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z08 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z09 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z21 33.4% 33.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z22 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z30 3.4% 3.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Table 40. EGHS – Student ‘Home’ Trips Traffic Distribution (2031)



Z05 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z06 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z07 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z08 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z09 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z21 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z22 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z30 20.8% 20.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

For ‘linked work’ trips, the 2016 ABS census data has been reviewed for workers ‘place of usual residence’ within the school catchments and the place of work.

The likely traffic routes have been the proposed EGHS site and the work location (SA2 level) have been assigned, with the number of workers in each location determining the percentage split.

A summary of the student ‘linked work’ trips is provided in Table 41 below.

Table 41. EGHS – Student ‘Linked Work’ Trips Traffic Distribution



Z02 20.7% 20.7% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6%

Z03 4.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4%

Z05 29.9% 29.9% 29.2% 29.2% 29.2% 29.2%






Z06 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Z09 7.7% 7.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Z19 1.0% 1.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

Z21 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Z24 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Z25 34.1% 34.0% 36.2% 36.2% 36.2% 36.2%

6.1.3.7 School Access Point Usage

Vehicle access to the school site is proposed to operate as follows:

2023 – Albatross Crescent West (all movements) 2031 – Albatross Crescent West (all movements) and Well Station Drive (left in / left out)

In the 2023 scenario all vehicle access occurs to a single vehicle access to Albatross Crescent West and no access point selection is required.

In the 2031 scenario, two vehicle access points are available. The usage of the access points has been allocated based on the origin / destination of the trips. This is due to the left in / left out restriction on movements at the Well Station Drive access which limits its attractiveness for right turning vehicles. A summary of the allocation of vehicle movements from the school access point for the high school in 2031 are provided in Table 42 below. Table 42. EGHS – 2031 High School Trips – School Access Point Usage

Origin Destination Access Point Usage

Albatross Crescent West Access

Well Station Road Access

Student Trips

Kenny Schools 67% 33%

Schools Kenny 100% 0%

Well Station Drive W Schools 67% 33%

Schools Well Station Drive W 33% 67%

Well Station Drive E Schools 33% 67%

Schools Well Station Drive E 0% 100%

Staff Trips

Well Station Drive W Schools 100% 0%

Schools Well Station Drive W 0% 100%

Well Station Drive E Schools 100% 0%

Schools Well Station Drive E 100% 0%

6.1.3.8 Discount for Kenny / Park and Ride Trips

It is assumed that the introduction of the schools into the model area will result in the redistribution of trips associated with the residences within Kenny, rather than the generation of additional trips (i.e. without EGHS, students residing within Kenny would travel to other nearby schools). On this basis, the proportion of school trips associated with the Kenny development (‘Z30’ in Table 39 and Table 40, above) have been ‘added’ as school trips and ‘discounted’ from the Kenny-based journey to work trips under the EGHS Case scenarios.




Similarly, the trips generated to/from the Park and Ride includes a component of trips that have already been accounted for in the Kenny development volumes. These trips also underwent a redistribution process whereby trips associated with the Park & Ride were ‘added’ as Park & Ride trips and ‘discounted’ as Kenny-based journey to work trips.

6.1.4 School Access Arrangements

The proposed school site has frontages to Well Station Drive and the future connector road into the Kenny development (extension to Albatross Crescent West).

Well Station Drive is classified as an arterial road and the Albatross Crescent West extension will be classified as a major collector road. From a structural perspective, it is desirable to take primary access from the Albatross Crescent West extension (collector road) on the following basis:

The site frontage to Well Station Drive is approximately 400m long, with intersections at each end (Kings Canyon Street at the western end and Albatross Crescent West the eastern end).

The Kings Canyon Street intersection does not align with the western boundary of the school site, due to the heritage-listed Old Well Station Road track. Hence, the provision of a cross intersection with Kings Canyon Street is not possible.

The 400m length between the existing intersections is not a sufficient length to provide another significant intersection (all movements), with a potential intersection spacing of only 200m to the existing intersections.

The Kenny development will require the construction of the fourth (south) leg of the Albatross Crescent West intersection and therefore it would be efficient to also provide the school access via this leg.

In the interim conditions (2023), when only the high school component is operating, it is proposed for all vehicle access to occur to Albatross Crescent West extension at the southern boundary of the school site. This approach will result in a three-leg intersection with the future connection to Kenny to the east (Kenny West Access Road). On this basis, it is recommended that this intersection is constructed as a roundabout to provide improved control, vehicle management and facilitate U-turn movements.

The intersection of Well Station Drive and Albatross Crescent West is best controlled by traffic signals, on the following basis:

For intersections between arterial roads and major collector road, traffic signals are typically applied to provide sufficient capacity.

Traffic signals provide for controlled pedestrian movements in close vicinity to the site. This arrangement results in significantly improved pedestrian safety and amenity when compared to a roundabout.

The provision of traffic signals also allows for improved cyclist operation when compared to a roundabout.

It is noted that while initially considered, the service road along the northern boundary of the school has since been omitted from this analysis, due to the anticipated impacts on the future left-in, left-out access (discussed below) and bus stops along Well Station Drive. Furthermore, for safety reasons, no direct pedestrian access is proposed along the northern boundary of the school site.

A summary diagram of the interim arrangement is shown in Figure 35 below.




Figure 35. EGHS – Interim Vehicle Access Arrangements (Aerial Source: Nearmap) In the ultimate conditions, when the high school, primary school and pre-school are assumed to be operating, it is recommended to provide a secondary access point to the overall site, to better serve the increased traffic demands expected at the school site.

Options for a secondary access point to Well Station Drive are limited, given the short frontage to Albatross Crescent West and the footprint of the proposed school. On this basis, the only possible location for a secondary access is at the north-west corner of the site, via the boundary loop road. Given the proximity to the Kings Canyon Street intersection, this access would need to operate in a left in / left out only configuration.

The key benefit of this arrangement is the distribution of vehicle trips away from Albatross Crescent West, particularly for trips towards the high school kiss-and-go area on the eastern boundary of the school site. Similarly, those trips departing the school site to the west along Well Station Drive, will be permitted to do so without circulating via Albatross Crescent West.

It is noted that the drawbacks of this arrangement include the limited offset (approximately 45m) between the recommended left-in, left-out access and the existing King’s Canyon Street / Well Station Drive ‘T’-intersection. It is noted that the Estate Development Code identifies a minimum off-set of 150m for this type of staggered intersection arrangement, primarily to reduce the impacts of queuing on the major road (Well Station Drive), should there be significant traffic demands for the crossing movement (School Loop Road to Kings Canyon Street).

Based on the school catchment areas, the demand for vehicles to exit the School Loop Road and immediately turn right into Kings Canyon Street is expected to be negligible. On this basis, the offset between the intersections, is considered to be appropriate for the inclusion of a left in / left out arrangement. Should it be considered that drivers exiting the School Loop Road would not have sufficient sight-distance to the Kings Canyon Street traffic signals, additional signal lanterns could be incorporated on the School loop Road to control exit movements when the Well Station Drive signals are ‘red’. The provision of the second access will result in improved site circulation, distribution of the traffic volume across the site and will improve access for emergency / service vehicles. On balance, the benefits of the second access are considered to outweigh the negatives of the reduced off-set between the intersections.

A minor driveway access to the Albatross Crescent West extension is also proposed for the small carpark (15 spaces) serving the pre-school at the north-east corner of the site. It is recommended that this access operates as left in / left out. Entry movements from Well Station Drive are facilitated by the roundabout proposed at the southern end of the Albatross Crescent West extension with U-turn

School Site

Internal School Access Roundabout

Traffic Signals




movements. It is noted that this driveway access can only be constructed after the relocation of one or more of the bus bays from Albatross Crescent West to Well Station Drive.

A summary of the proposed vehicle access arrangements in the ultimate conditions is provided in Figure 36 below.

Figure 36. EGHS – Ultimate Vehicle Access Arrangements (Aerial Source: Nearmap)


6.2.1 Light Rail

The proposed school site is located approximately 400m from the Light Rail operating along Flemington Road. The closest stop is located on the south side of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

In terms of the capacity of the light rail, the existing frequency of the light rail services during the school peak periods is as follows:

AM School Peak (8am-9am) – Every 5 minutes (approximately 12 services), and PM School Peak (3pm-4pm) – Every 6-10 minutes (approximately 6-10 services).

Whilst detailed information regarding the capacity of the light rail services is not available, discussions with TCCS have identified that the existing light rail services may not have adequate capacity to cater for the additional trips generated by the school (177-221 trips). We note that public transport usage in the Gungahlin area is expected to continue to grow more broadly as additional development. In particular, usage of the Well Station Drive stop is expected to increase with the development of Kenny.

In view of the above, it is recommended that the light rail scheduling is reviewed to identify if any further capacity can be added to cater for the expected demands.

6.2.2 Bus Services

Existing bus services in the vicinity of the subject site are limited to Route 18, which travels east-west along Well Station Drive.

Existing bus stops are located on the west side of the Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West intersection, as shown at Figure 37 below. These stops are provided in a basic suburban format, including a minimal hardstand area, storage for one bus and a shelter for the westbound stop only.

School Site

Internal School Access Roundabout

Traffic Signals Left In / Left Out Accesses




Figure 37. Existing Bus Stops west of Albatross Crescent West (Aerial Source: Nearmap) Given the basic nature of these stops existing stops, they are not adequate to cater for the future school demands.

A consultation meeting was held with TCCS, Education, MPC during the development of the Transport Impact Assessment to discuss the provision of bus services to the school. Minutes of this meeting are provided at Appendix O.

The key directions provided by TCCS for the future provision of bus services are as follows:

Bus services are primarily used by high school students, not primary school students. A general policy is for high school students to utilise route buses rather than dedicated school bus

services where possible. The bus stops at the school should provide for up to three (3) buses, two (2) associated with the

school and one (1) for public services. Relocation of existing bus stops should be avoided where possible so as not to impact the catchment

area of the public transport network.

Given the likely future duplication of Well Station Drive, a strategy for the provision of bus services for the school was developed for an ‘interim’ (prior to the duplication of Well Station Drive and opening of the primary school and pre-school) and ‘ultimate’ (after the duplication of Well Station Drive and opening of the primary school and pre-school) as follows:

Interim Provision:

Bus stops (provision for three (3) buses) to service the school located on the west side of the proposed Albatross Crescent West extension, along the school frontage.

Buses diverted via the Albatross Crescent West extension during school peak periods. Turn around facility at the south end of Albatross Crescent West to be designed to cater for bus

movements (i.e. roundabout). Traffic signals at Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West to facilitate bus movements in both

directions. Basic bus stops on Well Station Drive retained for public route services outside of the school

peaks.

Ultimate Provision:

New bus stops to be constructed at the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street intersection as part of the Well Station Drive duplication to service both (high) school and general public services.




To minimise the impact to the catchment area for the public transport network, it is recommended to also reconstruct the bus stops at the Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West intersection.

Bus movements generally operate east-west along Well Station Drive. Bus stops constructed in the interim along school frontage in Albatross Crescent West utilised

exclusively for school operation (excursions, camps, etc.). On this basis, it is anticipated that one (1) of these bus stops could be removed to provide a driveway access to the pre-school.

A summary of the proposed bus service arrangements is shown in Figure 38 below.

Figure 38. Proposed Interim/Ultimate Bus Provision (Aerial Source: Nearmap)

6.3 ACTIVE TRAVEL

6.3.1 Adequacy of Existing Active Travel Links

The future volume on each existing path linkage in the vicinity of the subject site has been assessed in the 2023 and 2031 scenarios. Two values are provided for each link being a ‘likely’ volume based on the existing mode split associated with existing schools across Canberra and an ‘upper’ volume based on the aspirational active travel mode share for the school (30% walking and cycling).

A summary of the assessment is provided in Figure 39 below.

Proposed School

Ultimate Bus Movements

Ultimate Bus Stops – Integrated School &

General Public

Interim School Bus Stops

Proposed Traffic Signals – Facilitates

Bus Movements

Turn Around Facility to be Designed for Buses

Ultimate Bus Stops – Primarily for General

Public




Figure 39. Future Active Travel Peak Hour Volumes The path widths have been considered with regard for the Municipal Infrastructure Standard 05 (MIS 05), with the general path requirements for suburban settings shown in Table 43 below.

Table 43. Municipal Infrastructure Standard 05 – Path Widths

Facility Community Route Level Function Width

Minor Path Access – Special

Predominately for pedestrian use, cyclist use permitted: low volumes, Local access street A.

1.5m

Intermediate Path

Access – General

Predominately for pedestrian use, cyclist use permitted, Local access street B.

2.0m

Intermediate / Trunk Path

Access – Special

Access – Feeder

Higher levels of pedestrian and/or cyclist use associated with a major community facility Higher levels of pedestrian and/or cyclist use associated with access from a residential catchment to a Main or Local Community Route

2.0-3.0m

Trunk Path Main or Local in suburban

High levels of pedestrian and cyclist use in both directions: commuting; speeds greater than 20km/h. May require greater width when overlaid with an APR or RR.

Min. 3.0m, up to 5m

wide

MIS 05 indicates that path widths should have regard for guidance in Austroads Guide to Road Design Part 6A (AGRD6A), in relation to user volumes. AGRD6A presents a series of graphs that consider path width, pedestrian volume and cyclist volume, for the purpose of this assessment the graph with a 75%/25% direction split has been adopted given the tidal nature associated with school volumes (shown at Figure 40 below).

This graph provides guidance on shared paths between 2.5m-3.0m wide, with separated pedestrian cycling facilities guidance for higher volume situations. As no guidance is provided for lower order paths, we have set volume limits for 1.5m and 2m paths as follows:

1.5m paths – 25 pedestrians and 5 cyclists per hour 2.0m paths – 30 pedestrians and 10 cyclists per hour

Legend:Existing Mode SplitAspirational Mode Split

W Walking VolumeC Cycling Volume

NULLABOR AV NULLABOR AV

W C W C W C W C W C W C2023 54 61 61 20 2023 21 4 23 8 2023 42 8 47 152031 55 21 63 31 2031 21 4 24 8 2031 43 8 48 15

W C W C W C W C W C W C2023 38 8 43 15 2023 54 9 61 19 2023 25 5 28 92031 39 18 44 25 2031 55 10 63 20 2031 25 5 28 9

WELL STATION DR WELL STATION DR

W C W C2023 236 12 262 22 KENNY COLLECTOR2031 281 43 313 53

W C W C2023 10 3 11 42031 126 8 196 17

SCHOOL

FLEM

INGT

ON

RD

HOSK

INS

ST

OLD

WEL

L STA

TIO

N

ALBA

TRO

SS C

R W

ALBA

TRO

SS C

R E

NULL

ABO

R AV

HORS

E PA

RK D

R




Figure 40. AGRD6A – Path Width Selection – 75%/25% Directional Split An assessment of each path linkage based on MIS-05 and AGRD6A is provided at Table 44 below.

Table 44. Assessment of Path Linkages

Road Side Section Classification

Existing Provision

MIS 05 Requirement

AGRD6A Requirement

Recommendation

Well Station Dr

North Kings Canyon St to Nullarbor Av

N/A 2m path 2m path 2m path2 No Change

South Kings Canyon St to Albatross Cr West

Main CR None 3-5m path 2.5m path New 3m Path

North Kings Canyon St to Flemington Rd

Main CR 1.5-2m path

3-5m path 3m path New 3m Path

South Main CR None 3-5m path 4m path New 4m Path

North Flemington Rd to Hoskins St

Main CR 2.5m path 3-5m path 2.5m path No Change




Road Side Section Classification

Existing Provision

MIS 05 Requirement

AGRD6A Requirement

Recommendation

Flemington Rd

East Well Station Dr to Nullarbor Av

Principal CR

1.5m footpath

3-5m path 1.5m path1 No Change

West Principal CR

2.5m path 3-5m path 3m path Widen to 3m

Old Well Station Rd

Path Well Station Dr to Nullarbor Av

Local CR 2.5m path 2-3m path 2.5m path No Change

Albatross Cr W

East Well Station Dr to Kenny West Access Rd

Future Main CR

None 3-5m path 2.5m path New 3-4m Path

West3 Future Main CR

None 3-5m path 3-4m path New 3-4m Path

Kenny West Access Rd

- East of Albatross Cr West

Future Main CR

None 3-5m path 3-4m path New 3-4m wide path

Note 1 – Upper limit for 1.5m path based on 25 pedestrians / 5 cyclists Note 2 – Upper limit for 2.0m path based on 30 pedestrian / 10 cyclist Note 3 – Along desire lines for school trips

A discussion regarding the recommended provision for the surrounding active travel network is provided below:

Well Station Drive – No existing facilities are currently provided on the south side of Well Station Drive. The school is predominantly expected to generate volumes to the west, towards Flemington Road (light rail stop and the majority of the catchment areas). The volume predicted on the south side (276-308 pedestrians/hour & 41-51 cyclists/hour) is significantly higher than the north side (55-63 pedestrians/hour & 10-20 cyclists/hour). The north side of the road falls within the range for a 3m path. For the south side of Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and the school site, Figure C1 1 from AGRD6A provides a flow chart for the selection of path treatments including cyclists as shown below (with the yellow lines representing the decision steps for the proposed section of path).

In view of the above, the Austroads guide suggests that a separated path facility is most appropriate facility for the south side of Well Station Drive (between Flemington Road and the school site). However, the critical pedestrian demands are associated with the school, which will generally occur




in two 30-minute peak periods each day. On this basis, we recommend that a 4m wide shared path is provided in preference to a separated facility to improve pedestrian capacity during these short peak events. This active travel infrastructure will comfortably cater for active travel demands associated with the future Kenny development. Along the frontage of the school site to Well Station Drive, trips are generally only associated with the Kenny development and high school trips towards Throsby. As, the reduced volume warrants a 3m wide shared path in accordance with the minimum requirements for a main community route. The section to the east of the school (north side) principally serves Throsby and the existing 2m wide path is considered sufficient. The section of path between Flemington Road and Hoskins Street is currently 2.5m wide, with the predicted future volumes at approximately 39-44 pedestrians/hour within the capacity of a 2.5m wide path.

Flemington Road – A principal community route is designated along the west side of Flemington Road to the north of Well Station Drive. However, the existing facilities are limited to a 2.5m shared path on the west side (MIS-05 requires a 3-5m path) and a 1.5m path on the east side. The future volumes are expected to exceed 50 pedestrians/hour on the west side and therefore a 3m wide shared path is warranted and is recommended to be widened as part of the school development.

Old Well Station Road Shared Path – The Old Well Station Road shared path (to the north of Well Station Drive) is expected to carry future pedestrian volumes below 50 pedestrian/hour and below 15 cyclist per hour. On this basis, the existing 2.5m path can cater for the expected future demands and no changes to the existing conditions are required as part of the school development.

Albatross Crescent West – Active travel infrastructure along Albatross Crescent West should suit the likely desire lines for both school and commuter trips. It is anticipated that school trips (of which between 121-191 pedestrians/hour and 6-15 cyclists per hour are expected) will primarily wish to travel from the north side of the Kenny West Access Road, to the school site on the west side of Albatross Crescent West. To cater for these trips, it is recommended to extend the 3-4m wide shared path from Kenny West Access Road to the children’s crossing and then on to the school entrance. Elsewhere on Albatross Crescent West (primarily on the east side of the roadway to the north of the children’s crossing, it is recommended to provide a 2.5m wide shared path to accommodate the anticipated 5 pedestrians/hour and 34 cyclists/hour.

Kenny West Access Road – Kenny forms a large catchment for the secondary school and the sole catchment for the primary school. On this basis, pedestrian volumes are expected to range between 121-191 pedestrians/hour and 6-15 cyclists per hour. This level of activity exceeds the capacity of a 3m shared path (due to the pedestrian volumes); however, the cyclist levels are predicted to be low. The Kenny West Access Road is expected to only have development on the north side in the future and it is unclear if a pedestrian provision will be included on both sides of the road or only one side of the road. On this basis, it is recommended that a 3-4m shared path be provided to cater for the predicted volumes. It is recommended that the location of this path (i.e. north or south of the roadway) be considered as part of the Kenny Estate Development Plan, once further information is known about the broader Kenny development.

6.3.2 Old Well Station Road Track – South of Well Station Drive

Old Well Station Road to the south of Well Station Drive provides an existing track through to Federal Highway. This track is identified strategically as a future local community route and includes heritage elements constraining the potential design outcomes.

The current school catchment provided by Education for this project does not include any areas to the south of the school site. On this basis, no active travel demands/volumes are expected to utilise the Old Well Station Road Track to the south of Well Station Drive.

If the school catchment is modified in the future to include any areas to the south (i.e. North Watson), the development of the Old Well Station Road track should be revisited.

6.3.3 Road Crossing Facilities

Pedestrian movements across the roads in the vicinity of the school site have been reviewed based on the expected desire lines and the general school access points identified in the preliminary school Master Plan, as shown at Figure 41 below.

For the High School, the main entry is located on the western side of the school site. Therefore, there is expected to be a strong desire for movements across Well Station Drive in the vicinity of the western




access at Kings Canyon Street. Given the arterial road classification of Well Station Drive, the 80km/h speed zoning and the younger age profile of the pedestrians, a signalised pedestrian crossing is required. From a structural perspective, it is difficult to locate a mid-block POS given the various existing and proposed access points and the spacing between them. Therefore, the only option of providing signalised pedestrian movements is to signalise the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street intersection. The signalised intersection at Kings Canyon Street is recommended to be constructed at the commencement of the school operations (2023) for pedestrian safety.

Any pedestrian movements heading further west are able to cross Well Station Drive and Flemington Road at the existing traffic signals.

Figure 41. Pedestrian Desire Lines from School Access Points As part of the vehicle accessibility considerations discussed previously, the intersection of Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West is proposed to be signalised. This will facilitate any pedestrian movements seeking to head east, principally towards Throsby.

While undesirable to install without a demonstrated need, pedestrian fencing could be installed along Well Station Drive to prevent pedestrians from crossing at inappropriate locations. It is recommended that a review be undertaken after EGHS is operational to identify whether a need for pedestrian fencing exists.

It is noted that the path network in the vicinity of Nullarbor Avenue is discontinuous, with the path on the north side of Well Station Drive terminating and pedestrian movements being required to divert via Carpentaria Street to access the Well Station Drive / Horse Park Drive signalised crossing. The current footpath network requires pedestrian to walk to Cape York Street to cross the road, a reasonably long detour. We would not expect high school children to follow this route and would be likely to cross in the vicinity of Adder Street (the most direct route). On this basis, we recommend that kerb ramps are provided to the south-east of Adder Street to facilitate these movements as shown at Figure 42 below.




Figure 42. Nullarbor Avenue Crossing – Recommend Kerb Ramp On the eastern boundary of the site, the primary school main entry is located on the new Albatross Crescent West extension. Given that the primary school catchment is 100% to/from Kenny, a strong desire line is expected to cross the road in the vicinity of the main entry. Given the collector road nature of this road, it is recommended that school crossing is provided to facilitate these movements. It is noted that a level of high school trips will also head to/from Kenny, with the internal path network expected to direct these student trips to the proposed crossing.

With respect to the location of the school crossing on the Albatross Crescent West access, it is desirable from the traffic impact perspective to maximise the off-set from the proposed Well Station Drive traffic signals, which also better aligns the crossing with the route likely to be taken by unsupervised high school children (who are more likely to avoid using the school crossing where it is not directly on their desire line). In general, we would expect primary school aged children to be supervised and parents would divert the short distance south from the main entrance to use the crossing.

6.3.4 Summary of Recommended Active Travel Upgrades

A summary of the recommended active travel upgrades in the vicinity of the school site are presented at Figure 43 below.

Existing Pedestrian Route

Recommend Kerb Ramps to Match Desire Line




Figure 43. Summary of Recommended Active Travel Upgrades


The following sections describe the anticipated traffic conditions within the study area under the future scenarios with the proposed EGHS development. As with the Base Cases above, the results for the 2031 scenarios are presented first, with the results for 2023 presented second. This again provides an overview of the total works required, to 2031, before identifying which Works Packages are required in 2023, to maintain a safe and efficient road network within the study area.

6.4.1 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the road upgrades adopted and the performance of the road network under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario.


The road upgrades adopted under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario are required in order to provide access to future developments (including the proposed EGHS) within the study area. This includes Works Package A to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and Works Package G to provide access to the latter stages of the proposed Kenny development, both of which were adopted under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.1.1, page 28).

Additionally, Works Package E has been adopted to provide access to both the initial stages of the proposed Kenny development and to the subject site, while Works Package L has been adopted to provide a second access to the subject site directly via Well Station Drive.

Works Package E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals Works Package E primarily includes the signalisation of the Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive intersection. This package of works is recommended to improve access to the school site for pedestrians and buses.

The model represents these works as a signalised cross-intersection with two (2) approach and one (1) departure lane on the south leg, four (4) approach and two (2) departure lanes on the east leg, one (1) approach and one (1) departure lane on the north leg and four (4) approach and two (2) departure lanes on the west leg. For pedestrian safety, all left-turns at the intersection are signalised (i.e. no high-angle left-turns) and traffic signal timings have been developed assuming pedestrian signals are called at least 80% of signal cycles during the AM commuter and PM school peak hours. At all times, the intersection operates with single diamond overlap signal phasing on the east and west approaches and with split approach signal phasing on the north and south approaches.




Also included as part of this works package is a roundabout at the southeast corner of the subject site to provide access to the initial stages of the proposed Kenny development, the School Loop Road and to enable school buses to undertake a U-turn to access the bus stops located along the eastern frontage of the school site.

The model represents these additional works as a three-legged roundabout providing access to the north (Albatross Crescent West extension), east (Kenny West Access Road) and west (School Loop Road).

Figure 44 below presents the model representation of Works Package E.

Figure 44. Works Package E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

Works Package L – School Loop Road / Well Station Drive: Left-In, Left-Out Access Works Package L includes a new priority-controlled left-in, left-out intersection on Well Station Drive at the northwest corner of the school site (approximately 50m east of Kings Canyon Street). This package of works is recommended to improve vehicular access and traffic circulation in the vicinity of the school site, in the case that the primary school and pre-school are constructed.

The model represents these works as an access road (School Loop Road) extending south from Well Station Drive, approximately 50m east of Kings Canyon Street as shown at Figure 45 below. Given the close proximity to the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection, only left-turn movements have been permitted at the School Loop Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

New Signalised Intersection




Figure 45. Works Package L – School Loop Road / Well Station Drive: Left-In, Left-Out Access (Unduplicated Well Station Drive)


A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios is presented at Table 45 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2031 EGHS Case are presented at Appendix S, while full results from the 2031 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix T1.

Table 45. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 31,272.59 87.51 24,247.87 85.26 28,831.81 76.31

VHT [hours] 1,084.68 4.99 475.82 3.53 1,094.53 3.86






Total Stops 44,333.80 185.80 14,518.20 148.20 47,394.40 153.60


Vehicles Waiting to Enter [veh] 2,093.40 3.80 6.80 0.00 1,386.60 1.80

New Left-In, Left-Out Intersection




The network performance summary for the 2031 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades demonstrates the broad impacts of the additional traffic demands on the road network (associated with the proposed school), compared to the 2031 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase (by 1.3%). The total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to increase (by 2.4%). This reflects a marginal increase in congestion as indicated by the decrease in average vehicle speeds (-2.0%) and a marginal increase in the number of stops (2.1%).


Table 46 below presents a summary of the performance for the core area intersections along Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and Horse Park Drive.

Table 46. Core Area Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 185s F 136m 219s F 230m 338s F 288m

E: Well Station Dr 86s F 260m 53s D 289m 97s F 264m

N: Flemington Rd 65s E 227m 31s C 76m 32s C 67m

W: Well Station Dr 748s F 979m 94s F 613m 445s F 911m

TOTAL 182s F 979m 97s F 613m 240s F 911m


S: Park & Ride 135s F 8m 95s F 66m 1,052s F 98m

E: Well Station Dr 86s F 242m 30s C 215m 101s F 228m

W: Well Station Dr 1,027s F 204m 51s D 10m 40s C 37m

TOTAL 1,027s F 242m 95s F 215m 1,052s F 228m


E: Well Station Dr 25s B 98m 6s A 81m 28s B 85m

N: Kings Canyon St 1,033s F 24m 36s C 14m 691s F 24m


TOTAL 1,033s F 98m 36s C 81m 691s F 85m

Well Station Drive / School Loop Road – ‘Give-Way’ Control

S: School Loop Rd 1,907s F 96m 47s D 71m 319s F 95m

E: Well Station Dr 228s F 570m 25s B 212m 194s F 506m

TOTAL 1,907s F 570m 47s D 212m 319s F 506m

Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West - Traffic Signals

S: Albatross Cr W 90s F 179m 32s C 69m 132s F 69m

E: Well Station Dr 699s F 413m 38s C 121m 53s D 146m

N: Albatross Cr W 181s F 105m 36s C 28m 41s C 34m

W: Well Station Dr 49s D 112m 36s C 119m 31s C 91m

TOTAL 269s F 413m 36s C 121m 49s D 146m







S: Albatross Cr E 176s F 191m 3s A 39m 3s A 38m

E: Well Station Dr 162s F 606m 7s A 92m 6s A 82m

N: Albatross Cr E 61s E 58m 3s A 6m 3s A 8m

W: Well Station Dr 29s C 191m 8s A 41m 7s A 39m



S: Well Station Dr 19s B 257m 3s A 10m 2s A 29m

N: Well Station Dr 21s B 130m 6s A 2m 6s A 10m




S: Horse Park Dr 50s D 118m 10s A 86m 4s A 33m


N: Horse Park Dr 16s B 138m 29s C 138m 35s C 131m

W: Well Station Dr 49s D 210m 15s B 103m 30s C 106m

TOTAL 28s B 210m 16s B 138m 13s A 131m

During the AM and PM commuter peak hours under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario, a lack of capacity on the south, east and west approaches to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection is expected to cause significant queueing and delays throughout the core area and to the west along Well Station Drive, as shown at Figure 46 and Figure 47 below.

Figure 46. 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades Scenario during the AM commuter peak hour




Figure 47. 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades Scenario during the PM commuter peak hour

During the PM school peak hour, capacity constraints are expected to be more localised:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: o The south approach (Flemington Road) is expected to operate with average delays of 219s

(LOS F) in the PM school peak hour. This capacity constraint is primarily associated with the right-turn movement from this approach, which operates in a single lane and with limited green time due to the light rail priority.

o The queue on the east approach is expected to extend back to block the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection during the PM school peak hour (289m queues in 155m storage). The lack of capacity on this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

o The west approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to operate with an average delay of 94s (LOS F) in the PM school peak hour. The lack of capacity on this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

Well Station Drive / Park & Ride: o The south approach (Park & Ride) is expected to operate with average delays of 95s (LOS

F) during the PM school peak hour. This delay is due to the intersection being blocked by vehicles queued from the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

o The queue on the east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to extend back to block the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street intersection (215m queue in 155m storage). This queue is an extension of the queue from the east approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street: o The queue on the east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to extend back to block

the Well Station Drive / School Loop Road intersection (81m queue in 45m storage). This is an extension to the queue from the east approach of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection.

It is noted that in 2031, the Kenny development is expected to contribute significantly greater additional traffic demands to the road network, compared to the additional traffic demands associated with the proposed school development. This is primarily due to the significant number of occupied dwellings assumed within the Kenny development in 2031.


It is noted that the vehicle arrival patterns at these intersections do not necessarily reflect real-world conditions and as such, are presented below to provide context to the performance of the core area




intersections. To assess the impacts of road upgrades at these external intersections, additional, more detailed modelling would be required.


Table 47. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak

Well Station Dr / Hoskins St Delays & Queues Acceptable Delays &

Queues



Horse Park Dr / Kenny Southeast Access Rd Delays Acceptable Acceptable


Under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:

Well Station Drive / Hoskins Street: The Well Station Drive / Hoskins Street intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the west approach to the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. It was noted that increased traffic demands along Well Station Drive are likely to result in increased delays at the intersection. In the AM commuter peak hour, it is expected that the demand for the right-turn movements from the north and west approaches will significantly limit the capacity of the east approach.


Horse Park Drive / Kenny Southeast Access Road: The Horse Park Drive / Kenny Southeast Access Road intersection was found to operate with unacceptable delays and long queues on the north approach (Horse Park Drive) during the AM commuter peak hour. This is primarily due to downstream effects from the Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange).


6.4.2 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the recommended road upgrades adopted and the performance of the 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario.


The 2031 EGHS Case with Recommended Road Upgrades includes Works Packages A, E, G and L, as adopted in the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 6.4.1.1, page 69) to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility, Kenny development and school site. Also included are Works Packages C, D, H, I, J and K, as adopted in the 2031 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario to achieve acceptable operating conditions by increasing capacity at key locations on the arterial road network throughout the study area.




Furthermore, Works Package F has been adopted to address geometric constraints on Well Station Drive between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent West. Works Package M has also been adopted, primarily to improve pedestrian safety and amenity at the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection.

Works Package F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West Works Package F includes the duplication of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent West, to provide a typically four-lane, two-way midblock cross-section. This package of works is recommended to address geometric constraints, given the additional eastbound and westbound traffic lanes at both ends of this section, at Kings Canyon Street (Works Package C) and Albatross Crescent West (Works Package E).

The model represents these works as a typically four-lane, two-way midblock cross section along Well Station Drive, between approximately 100m east of Kings Canyon Street and approximately 100m west of Albatross Crescent West as shown at Figure 48 below.

Figure 48. Works Package F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West

Works Package M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals Works Package M includes the signalisation of the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection. This package of works is recommended primarily to improve the safety and amenity of pedestrians wishing to cross at this location.

The model represents these works as a signalised ‘T’-intersection with three (3) approach lanes and two (2) departure lanes on the east leg, one (1) approach lane and one (1) departure lane on the north leg and three (3) approach lanes and two (2) departure lanes on the west leg. For pedestrian safety, all left-turns at the intersection are signalised (i.e. no high-angle left-turns) and traffic signal timings have been developed assuming pedestrian signals are called every signal cycle during the AM commuter and PM school peak hours. At all times the intersection operates a standard three (3) phase signal cycle for ‘T’-intersections.

Figure 49 below presents the model representation of Works Package M.

Four-Lane, Two-Way Midblock Cross-Section




Figure 49. Works Package M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals


A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrade scenarios is presented at Table 48 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2031 EGHS Case are presented at Appendix S, while full results from the 2031 EGHS Case with Recommended Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix T2.

Table 48. Network-Wide Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 36,870.08 103.23 24,747.65 88.78 31,723.07 79.68

VHT [hours] 816.29 4.70 454.58 3.78 863.43 3.22






New Signalised Intersection





All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

Total Stops 27,856.80 192.00 13,308.00 158.60 35,177.00 129.80



The network performance summaries for the 2031 EGHS Case with Recommended Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the recommended road upgrades on the road network, compared to the 2031 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to significantly increase (by 17.9%) while the total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to significantly decrease (by -24.7%). The average vehicle speed is expected to increase significantly (by 21.6%), while the number of stops decreases (by -37.2%).



Table 49. Core Area Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 45s D 48m 56s D 95m 26s B 50m

E: Well Station Dr 68s E 302m 29s C 143m 39s C 173m


W: Well Station Dr 69s E 231m 25s B 118m 51s D 227m

TOTAL 49s D 302m 35s C 143m 37s C 227m








N: Kings Canyon St 44s D 29m 39s C 18m 34s C 18m


TOTAL 10s A 155m 9s A 116m 11s A 143m

Well Station Drive / School Loop Road – ‘Give-Way’ Control

S: School Loop Rd 6s A 34m 2s A 22m 2s A 10m









S: Albatross Cr W 30s C 114m 31s C 74m 39s C 44m

E: Well Station Dr 65s E 197m 39s C 109m 35s C 93m

N: Albatross Cr W 58s E 93m 36s C 28m 33s C 28m

W: Well Station Dr 69s E 298m 31s C 129m 31s C 82m

TOTAL 61s E 298m 34s C 129m 33s C 93m


S: Albatross Cr E 5s A 62m 3s A 44m 4s A 44m











S: Horse Park Dr 49s D 123m 6s A 50m 5s A 39m


N: Horse Park Dr 14s A 130m 13s A 103m 36s C 130m


TOTAL 24s B 130m 10s A 103m 13s A 130m

The aforementioned road network upgrades significantly improve the performance of the road network under the 2031 Base Case traffic demands. A summary of the remaining minor capacity issues for the 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario are as follows:


the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection during the AM and PM commuter peak hours (302m and 173m queues, respectively, in 155m of storage). The provision of ‘Keep Clear’ linemarking across the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection will permit vehicles to make the right-turn from Well Station Drive into the Park & Ride, despite a queue of westbound vehicles.

Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon Street: o The queue on the east approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to extend back to block

the Well Station Drive / School Loop Road intersection during the AM and PM commuter peak hours (56m and 76m queues in 45m storage). This is not considered to be a significant issue as these queues clear quickly, allowing vehicles to exit the School Loop Road without significant delays.







Table 50. Key External Intersections Summary – 2031 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak




Horse Park Dr / Kenny Southeast Access Rd Acceptable Acceptable Acceptable


Under the 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:



6.4.3 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the road upgrades and the performance of the road network under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario.


The road upgrades adopted under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario are required in order to provide access to future developments, including the proposed EGHS, located within the study area. This includes Works Package A, as adopted under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.1.1, page 28) to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility. Also included is Works Package E, as adopted under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 6.4.1.1, page 69), to provide access to both the initial stage of the proposed Kenny development and to the subject site.

It is noted that while EGHS is expected to generate pedestrian crossing demands in the vicinity of the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection, Works Package M (traffic signals at this intersection) has not been adopted as part of this scenario. This is due to the cascading effect of additional upgrade works that would result and the desire to present the performance of the road network without the additional works (i.e. the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenario). On this




basis, the lack of signalised pedestrian crossing on Well Station Drive in the vicinity of Kings Canyon Street is noted and considered to be a significant limitation of this scenario.


A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios is presented in Table 51 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2023 EGHS Case are presented at Appendix Q, while full results from the 2023 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix R1.

Table 51. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 30,793.99 109.64 20,072.33 90.98 27,781.13 77.69

VHT [hours] 634.03 4.73 334.38 3.57 644.59 3.02






Total Stops 19,154.60 186.40 7,938.40 143.00 24,260.40 119.60



The network performance summaries for the 2023 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the additional traffic demands on the road network (associated with the proposed school), compared to the 2023 Base Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase (by 3.5%). The total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) is expected to increase (by 7.3%). This reflects a marginal increase in congestion as indicated by the decrease in average vehicle speeds (-4.1%) and an increase in the number of stops (10.2%).


Table 52 below presents a summary of the AM commuter peak intersection performance for the core area intersections along Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and Horse Park Drive.

Table 52. Core Area Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 42s C 60m 31s C 114m 23s B 81m



W: Well Station Dr 61s E 256m 22s B 156m 25s B 157m

TOTAL 35s C 260m 28s B 201m 28s B 200m

















S: Albatross Cr W 27s B 94m 28s B 94m 28s B 37m

E: Well Station Dr 45s D 87m 42s C 82m 28s B 68m

N: Albatross Cr W 32s C 63m 33s C 30m 23s B 24m

W: Well Station Dr 42s C 95m 36s C 100m 29s C 63m

TOTAL 38s C 95m 36s C 100m 28s B 68m












S: Horse Park Dr 29s C 98m 20s B 157m 21s B 222m



W: Well Station Dr 72s F 233m 19s B 109m 29s C 109m

TOTAL 28s B 233m 22s B 157m 23s B 222m

Under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following localised capacity constraints were identified at core intersections:

Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: o Queues on the east approach (Well Station Drive) are expected to extend back to block the

Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection during each of the three analysed peak hours (260m, 201m and 200m queues, respectively, in 155m storage). The lack of capacity on




this approach is due to both the single through lane arrangement and the traffic signal operation which provides strong priority for light rail services.

Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue: o The west approach (Nullarbor Avenue) is expected to operate with an average delay of

985s (LOS F) during the AM commuter peak hour. This is due to the intersection being blocked by vehicles queued on the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection.

Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue: o The west approach (Well Station Drive) is expected to operate with an average delay of 72s

(LOS F) during the AM commuter peak hour. Furthermore, queues on this approach are expected to extend back to block the Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection (233m queue in 180m storage). These capacity constraints are primarily due to a lack of capacity for the right-turn movement from this approach.

It is noted that in 2023, the proposed EGHS is expected to contribute in the order of twice the additional traffic demands at these critical approaches, compared to the additional traffic demands associated with the Kenny development. This is primarily due to the limited number of occupied dwellings assumed within the Kenny development in 2023. On this basis, and noting the similar performance of the road network under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario, the poor performance of part of the road network is expected irrespective of whether only EGHS or the Kenny development were to proceed.



A summary of the performance of key intersection on the periphery of the model (outside the core area) are presented in Table 53 below.

Table 53. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Minimal Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak




Under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:






6.4.4 2023 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades

The following sections summarise the recommended road upgrades adopted and the performance of the 2023 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario.


Works Packages A and E have been retained from the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrades scenario (section 6.4.3.1, page 80), to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility, initial stages of the Kenny development and the school site.

Also included are Works Packages C and D, as adopted under the 2023 Base Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario (section 5.3.4.1, page 44), to achieve acceptable operating conditions on the arterial road network.

Finally, Works Packages F and M, as adopted under the 2031 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrade scenario (section 6.4.2.1, page 75), have been included to, respectively, address geometric constraints on Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent West and to improve pedestrian safety and amenity at the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection.


A summary of the overall network wide operation in the 2023 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrade scenarios is presented in Table 54 below.

The traffic demands adopted for the 2023 EGHS Case are presented at Appendix Q, while full results from the 2023 EGHS Case with Recommended Road Upgrades are presented at Appendix R2.

Table 54. Network-Wide Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)


All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

All Vehicles

Public Transport

VKT [km] 31,048.43 110.96 20,092.82 90.96 27,820.49 78.75

VHT [hours] 616.59 4.68 333.39 3.51 648.06 3.07






Total Stops 18,573.60 189.20 8,026.60 146.80 24,839.40 123.80



The network performance summaries for the 2023 EGHS Case with Recommended Road Upgrades demonstrate the broad impacts of the recommended road upgrades on the road network, compared to the 2023 EGHS Case with Minimal Road Upgrades. In the AM commuter peak hour, the total distance travelled by vehicles in the network (VKT) is expected to increase marginally (by 0.8%) along with the total travel time of vehicles in the network (VHT) (2.8%). The average vehicle speed is expected to increase (by 2.2%), while the number of stops is expected to decrease (by 3.0%).


Table 55 below presents a summary of intersection performance for the core area intersections along Well Station Drive between Flemington Road and Horse Park Drive.




Table 55. Core Area Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)




S: Flemington Rd 42s C 54m 33s C 121m 22s B 80m




TOTAL 30s C 187m 28s B 121m 27s B 87m








N: Kings Canyon St 30s C 32m 36s C 18m 23s B 16m


TOTAL 11s A 108m 10s A 108m 10s A 74m


S: Albatross Cr W 27s B 97m 28s B 80m 28s B 37m

E: Well Station Dr 46s D 100m 41s C 81m 28s B 64m

N: Albatross Cr W 32s C 63m 33s C 30m 23s B 24m

W: Well Station Dr 33s C 86m 27s B 63m 32s C 57m

TOTAL 35s C 100m 32s C 81m 30s C 64m




















W: Well Station Dr 47s D 164m 23s B 62m 27s B 58m

TOTAL 20s B 164m 18s B 143m 23s B 222m

The aforementioned road network upgrades significantly improve the performance of the road network under the 2023 EGHS Case traffic demands. A summary of the remaining minor capacity issues for the 2023 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario is as follows:


the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection (187m queue in 155m of storage), during the AM commuter peak hour. The provision of ‘Keep Clear’ linemarking across the Well Station Drive / Park & Ride intersection will permit vehicles to make the right-turn from Well Station Drive into the Park & Ride, despite a queue of westbound vehicles.



A summary of the performance of key intersection on the periphery of the model (outside the core area) are presented in Table 56 below.

Table 56. Key External Intersections Summary – 2023 EGHS Case (Recommended Road Upgrades)

Intersection AM

Commuter Peak

PM School Peak

PM Commuter

Peak




Under the 2023 EGHS Case – Recommended Road Upgrades scenario the following observations were made at intersections outside the core area:


Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange): The Horse Park Drive / Federal Highway (West Interchange) intersection acted to ‘meter’ the arrival of vehicles at the south approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection. It is noted that the model does not include the two (2) signalised intersections immediately east of Federal Highway and on this basis, the signal timing has not been optimised for the increased traffic demands. Under these increased traffic demands, increased delays are expected at the intersection, particularly on




the south approach during the AM commuter peak hour and on the east approach during the PM commuter peak hour.

7. SUMMARY OF FUTURE CONDITIONS The following section presents a high-level summary of the traffic analysis, particularly in relation to the road upgrades recommended to maintain the safe and efficient operation of the road network.


The existing public transport network in the vicinity of the proposed development comprises public bus stops located on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West and a light rail station located on Flemington Road at Well Station Drive.

Under the Base Case scenarios (i.e. without the proposed EGHS) no changes to the public transport network are recommended. It is noted that the proposed Kenny development is expected to be served by public buses that circulate through the internal road network.

Under the interim EGHS Case scenarios (i.e. with the proposed high school, but without the primary school and pre-school), it is recommended to construct three (3) bus bays along the eastern frontage of the school site. These buy bays will be served by school buses and by public route buses at the start and end of the school day. Outside these times, public route buses are expected to continue to serve the bus stops located on Well Station Drive. To support this arrangement, Works Package E is recommended to support bus movements from Well Station Drive into the new section of Albatross Crescent West, ‘U’-turns at the southern end of Albatross Crescent West and the exit movements back onto Well Station Drive.

Under the ultimate EGHS Case scenarios (i.e. with the high school, primary school and pre-school), it is recommended that two (2) of the bus bays be retained on the eastern frontage of the school site. These bays will be utilised primarily for school excursions, while the daily school buses and public route buses will serve a pair of new bus stops located on Well Station Drive in the vicinity of the Kings Canyon Street intersection.

7.2 ACTIVE TRAVEL

The existing active travel infrastructure in the vicinity of the school site is limited to the northern side of Well Station Drive.

Under the Base Case scenarios (i.e. without the proposed EGHS) the only additional active travel demands in the area are expected to be associated with the proposed Kenny development. The active travel infrastructure improvements that are required to support the Kenny development are outside the scope of this analysis.

Under the EGHS Case conditions, active travel demands are expected between the school site (primarily the western end where the high school is located) and the indicative catchment area. To support these pedestrian and cyclists movements, a range of infrastructure is recommended, including: Works Packages E and M to support the safety and amenity of pedestrians as they cross Well Station Drive, as well as a range of shared paths in the vicinity of the school site, including a 4m wide shared path along the southern side of Well Station Drive, between Flemington Road and the school site to support student trips to the light rail network.


7.3.1 2019 Existing Conditions

Under the 2019 existing conditions, all core intersections were found to operate satisfactorily during each of the three (3) analysis peak hours. It was however noted that the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue intersection was operating at a level approaching maximum practical capacity.

7.3.2 2023 Base Case

Under the 2023 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios the core intersections are generally expected to operate satisfactorily. However, queues from the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive and




the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersections are expected to extend back to block upstream intersections.

On this basis, Works Packages A and B are required to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility and the initial stage of the Kenny development. Furthermore, Works Packages C and D are recommended in order to maintain an acceptable level of performance across the road network under the 2023 Base Case traffic demands.

7.3.3 2031 Base Case

Under the 2031 Base Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios, significant congestion is expected throughout the study area.

In addition to those upgrades recommended under the 2023 Base Case, Works Package G is required to provide access to the latter stages of the Kenny development. Additionally, Works Package H is recommended to improve the performance of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. Furthermore, Works Packages I and K have been adopted in the modelling to address capacity constraints identified outside the core area of the model. Further analysis into the performance of the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive and Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway intersections is recommended. Finally, Works Package J has also been included to address geometric constraints that arise from the inclusion of Works Package I.

7.3.4 2023 EGHS Case

Under the 2023 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios the core intersections are generally expected to operate satisfactorily. However, queues from the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive and the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive intersections are expected to extend back to block upstream intersections, causing excessive delays.

On this basis, Works Package A is required to provide access to the Park & Ride Facility, while, Works Package E is recommended to provide safe and efficient access to the initial stages of the Kenny development and the school site (including for pedestrians). Similarly, Works Package M is recommended to improve pedestrian safety at the Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive intersection. Works Packages C and D are recommended to improve the performance of the arterial road network within the study area and Works Package F is recommended to address geometric constraints on Well Station Drive.

7.3.5 2031 EGHS Case

Under the 2031 EGHS Case – Minimal Road Upgrade scenarios, significant congestion is expected throughout the study area.

In addition to those upgrades recommended under the 2023 EGHS Case, Works Package G is required to provide access to the latter stages of the Kenny development. Similarly, Works Package L is recommended to provide an additional access to the school site. Works Package H is recommended to improve the performance of the Flemington Road / Well Station Drive intersection. Furthermore, Works Packages I and K have been adopted in the modelling to address capacity constraints identified outside the core area of the model. Further analysis into the performance of the Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive and Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway intersections is recommended. Finally, Works Package J has also been included to address geometric constraints that arise from the inclusion of Works Package I.

7.3.6 Comparative Impacts of EGHS and Kenny

All future scenarios considered as part of this analysis included some traffic demand contribution associated with the Kenny development. On this basis, it is not possible to quantify the impacts to the road network due specifically to the Kenny development.

However, a high-level comparative analysis has been undertaken to estimate the impacts of the Kenny development, relative to the proposed school development.

In 2023, the proposed school development (EGHS) is expected to contribute approximately twice the number of peak hour vehicle trips to the critical approaches, compared to the Kenny development. This is primarily due to the small number of occupied dwellings within Kenny, assumed as part of the 2023




scenarios. As such, the duplication of Well Station Drive is recommended irrespective of whether only EGHS or the Kenny development were to proceed in 2023.

In 2031, the Kenny development is expected to contribute significantly more peak hour vehicle trips to these critical approaches, compared to EGHS. This is primarily due to the significant number of occupied dwellings within Kenny (full build out), assumed as part of the 2031 scenarios.

7.4 RECOMMENDED WORKS PACKAGES

Table 57 below summarises the works packages recommended in order to maintain the safe and efficient operation of the road network, under the various future scenarios: Table 57. Recommended Works Packages


2023 2031

Base EGHS Base EGHS

A – Park & Ride Access Access Yes Yes Yes Yes

B – Kenny Access (2023) Access Yes Yes

C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to Kings Canyon Street


D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach


E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

Access and Pedestrian Safety Yes Yes

F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West


G – Kenny Accesses (2031) Access Yes Yes

H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on South Approach

Road Network Performance Yes Yes

I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals


J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to Flemington Road


K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway: Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane


L – School Loop Road / Well Station Drive: Left-In, Left-Out Access

Access Yes

M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals Pedestrian Safety Yes Yes




8. PARKING ASSESSMENTS

8.1 BICYCLE PARKING REQUIREMENTS

The provision of bicycle parking is set out in the ACTPLA Bicycle Parking General Code.

A summary of the bicycle parking requirements is provided in Table 58 below.

Table 58. EGHS – Bicycle Parking Assessment

Component Students Bicycle Parking Rate Requirement

High School 1,000 Employee/Student: 1 space per 10 students 100

Visitors: 1 space per 200 students, after the first 200 students

4

Primary School 750 Employee/Student: 1 space per 15 students 50

Visitors: 1 space per 200 students, after the first 200 students

3

Total - 157

In view of the above, a total of 157 bicycle parking spaces are required for the proposed development, including 104 spaces for the high school and 53 spaces for the primary school.

For the employee / student parking (150 spaces), these spaces should be provided in a locked cage / compound. The preliminary Master Plan shows separate compounds for the high school and primary school adjacent to the car parking areas.

The Bicycle Parking General Code also requires the provision of end of trip facilities (showers and change rooms) for education uses. The rate of provision is 2 showers, plus 2 showers per 20 long term spaces after the first 24 long stay bicycle spaces. On this basis, the development requires the following end of trip facilities:

High School – 6 showers and associated change rooms Primary School – 4 showers and associated change rooms

The visitor spaces (7 spaces) can be provided via bicycle rails at a convenient location (i.e. in the vicinity of the school reception / administration / entry).

8.2 OVERALL CAR PARKING REQUIREMENT

8.2.1 PVAGC Car Parking Requirement

The ACTPLA Parking and Vehicular Access General Code (PVAGC) provides car parking requirements for developments.

The three (3) proposed on-site uses of pre-school, primary school and high school all fall under the ‘Education Establishment’ category and have the same car parking rates as follows:

Education Establishment (Pre-school, Primary and High School):

0.8 space / 10 students, plus 0.4 set-down/pick-up spaces / 10 students

Based on the above rates, the car parking requirements for the proposed development are shown in Table 59 below.




Table 59. EGHS – PVAGC Car Parking Requirements

Component Students Long Term Parking Short Term Parking Total

Spaces Rate No. Rate No.

High School 1,000 0.8 spaces/ 10 students

80 0.4 spaces/10

students

40 120

Primary School 750 60 30 90

Pre-School 44 4 2 6

Total - - 144 72 216

In view of the above, the car parking requirement for the overall site is 216 spaces including 120 spaces associated with the high school and 90 spaces associated with the primary school.

8.2.2 First Principles Car Parking Demand

A secondary car parking assessment has been developed based on the conservative traffic generation adopted previously (Section 5.3.3).

This assessment estimates the level of car parking demand based on the following approach:

Long Term Car Parking Demands – Principally associated with staff who arrive prior to school starting and depart after school concludes (more than 6-8 hours).

Short Term Car Parking Demands – Associated with parent drop-off and pick-up movements and can be further categorised as follows:

o ‘Kiss and Go’ – Parents parking for a very-short period of time (less than 2 minutes) to allow children to exit the vehicle.

o Short Term – Parents park and accompany their child into the school grounds, with demands typically occurring over a 15-minute period.

The three proposed components will have differing levels of the short-term parking, with high school students more likely to ‘Kiss and Go’, a more balanced split for the primary school and all of the pre-school children required to be accompanied into the centre. A summary of the splits adopted for each education component are detailed in the table below.

In the typical 30-minute pick-up / drop-off periods, each space used for ‘Kiss and Go’ could turn over up to 15 times (2 minute parking duration) and each space used for short term parking could turn over twice (15 minute duration).

A summary of the first principles car parking assessment is provided in Table 60 below.

Table 60. EGHS – First Principles Car Parking Demand

Component Traffic Generation Split

Overall Parking Demand

Parking Duration Turnover

Peak Car Parking Demand

High School

Long Term 100 trips 100% 100 spaces 6+ hrs All day 100 spaces

Short Term 294 trips

20% 59 spaces 15 mins 2 times 30 spaces

‘Kiss & Go’ 80% 235 spaces 2 mins 15 times 16 spaces

Sub-Total 146 spaces

Primary School


Short Term 195 trips


‘Kiss & Go’ 60% 117 spaces 2 mins 15 times 8 spaces

Sub-Total 122 spaces




Component Traffic Generation Split

Overall Parking Demand

Parking Duration Turnover

Peak Car Parking Demand

Pre-School


Short Term 7 trips


‘Kiss & Go’ - - - - -

Sub-Total 8 spaces

OVERALL TOTAL 276 spaces

In view of the above, the car parking demands for the overall site is 276 spaces including 146 spaces associated with the high school and 122 spaces associated with the primary school.

8.2.3 Provision of Car Parking

Table 61 below reviews the current Master Plan parking provision against the PVAGC requirements and the first principles demand assessment.

Table 61. EGHS – Masterplan Car Parking Review

Component Master Plan Parking Provision

PVAGC First Principles Assessment

Requirement Surplus / Shortfall

Demand Surplus / Shortfall

High School 120 spaces 120 0 146 -26

Primary School 86 spaces 90 -4 122 -36

Pre-School 15 spaces 6 +9 8 +7

Total 221 spaces 216 spaces +5 spaces 276 spaces -55 spaces

From an overall perspective, the preliminary Master Plan shows car parking provided at marginally above the requirements of the PVAGC (surplus of 5 spaces). However, it is noted that the provision for the primary school is 4 space below the requirement and the provision for the pre-school is 9 spaces above the requirement.

With regard for the first principles assessment, both the high school and primary school are below of the likely upper level (conservative) parking demands by 26-36 spaces. The pre-school is still expected to provide a surplus of parking when comparing with the first principles demands.

For the provision of car parking, it is important to consider the role that the quantity of car parking plays in mode choice. Provision of high car parking numbers (i.e. at the levels for the first principles assessment) would provide a comfortable experience for staff/parents to drive to the school site and therefore encourage the usage of private vehicles. Whereas the provision of car parking at levels similar to the PVAGC requirements results in a level of constraint on parking, therefore making alternative travel modes more attractive.

On this basis, we recommend that car parking is provided in line with the PVAGC rates, to encourage mode shift to public transport and active travel.

8.3 DISABLED CAR PARKING REQUIREMENT

The ACPLA Parking and Vehicular Access General Code indicates that disabled parking is to comprise a minimum of 3% (rounded up) of the total number of parking spaces required in accordance with the code.

Therefore, the overall school site has a requirement for 7 disabled parking spaces based on the PVAGC requirement of 221 car parking spaces. It is recommended that the disabled parking is spread across the parking areas as follows:




High School – 3 spaces Primary School – 3 spaces Pre-School – 1 space

The design of the disabled space must comply with the requirements of AS2890.6:2009, including an adjacent shared area.

8.4 MOTORCYCLE PARKING REQUIREMENT

The ACPLA Parking and Vehicular Access General Code requires that parking for motorcycles and motor scooters is provided at a rate of 3 spaces for each 100 car parking spaces provided.

On this basis, 6 motorcycle parking spaces should be provided based on the PVAGC requirement of 221 car parking spaces.




9. CONCLUSION Indesco were engaged by Major Projects Canberra (MPC) on behalf of Transport Canberra and City Services (TCCS) to undertake a Traffic Impact Assessment (TIA) for the proposed East Gungahlin High School (EGHS). After undertaking a range of analyses and assessments related to the public transport, active travel, traffic and car parking elements of the proposed development, it has been concluded that:

1. The proposed development is: a. to be located on the south side of Well Station Drive, between Old Well Station track

and Albatross Crescent West b. to accommodate approximately:

i. 800-1,000 high school students, ii. 600-750 primary school students, and iii. 44 pre-school students.

c. to be accessed (by car) via a loop road along the south and west boundaries of the site. 2. The existing public transport network in the vicinity of the site consists of:

a. A bus stop located on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West (served by Route 18 approximately every 30 minutes), and

b. A light rail stop located on Flemington Road at Well Station Drive (served approximately every 6-10 minutes).

3. To serve the proposed development it is recommended to provide: a. Interim provision (before Well Station Drive is duplicated):

i. Bus stops (accommodating three buses) on the west side of Albatross Crescent West along the school frontage,

ii. Public route buses to divert via this new stop during school peak times, iii. Turn around facility for buses (roundabout) at the southeast corner of the school

site, iv. Traffic signals at the Well Station Drive / Albatross Crescent West intersection,

and v. Existing bus stops on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West to be

reconstructed to serve public route buses during non-school times. b. Ultimate provision (after Well Station Drive is duplicated):

i. New bus stops to be constructed at the Well Station Drive / Kings Canyon intersection to serve both school and public route buses,

ii. Existing bus stops on Well Station Drive at Albatross Crescent West to be reconstructed to maintain public transport network coverage,

iii. Bus stop on west side of Albatross Crescent West to be used exclusively for school excursions, camps, etc.

4. The active travel network in the vicinity of the development site has been assessed against active travel demands associated with both expected and aspirational mode splits. It was found that:

a. The following existing shared paths are suitable to accommodate the anticipated active travel demands:

i. The 2.0m wide shared path on the north side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Nullarbor Avenue,

ii. The 2.5m wide shared path on the north side of Well Station Drive, between Flemington Road and Hoskins Street,

iii. The 1.5m wide footpath on the east side of Flemington Road, between Well Station Drive and Nullarbor Avenue,

iv. The 2.5m wide path along the Old Well Station track, between Well Station Drive and Nullarbor Avenue,

b. The following existing shared path will require widening to accommodate the anticipated active travel demands:




i. The existing 2.5m wide shared path on the west side of Flemington Road, between Well Station Drive and Nullarbor Avenue, requires widening to 3.0m,

c. New shared paths are required in the following locations to accommodate the anticipated active travel demands:

i. A new 3.0m wide shared path on the north side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Flemington Road,

ii. A new 4.0m wide shared path on the south side of Well Station Drive, between the school site and Flemington Road,

iii. A new 3.0m wide shared path on the south side of Well Station Drive, between Kings Canyon Street and Albatross Crescent West (along the frontage of the school site),

iv. A new 2.5m wide shared path on the east side of Albatross Crescent West, between Well Station Drive and the children’s crossing,

v. A new 3-4m wide shared path on the east side of Albatross Crescent West, between the children’s crossing and Kenny West Access Road,

vi. A new 3.0m wide shared path on the west side of Albatross Crescent West, between Well Station Drive and the Kenny West Access Road, and

vii. A new 3-4m wide shared path parallel to the Kenny West Access Road. 5. The traffic impacts of the proposed development were assessed through the use of a

microsimulation model, developed as an extension to a previous model built by Calibre in 2019. 6. Under the 2019 existing conditions the road network was generally found to operate acceptably,

with the exception of: a. the west approach to the Horse Park Drive / Well Station Drive / Bettong Avenue

intersection, where the maximum queue length was found to extend back to block the upstream Well Station Drive / Nullarbor Avenue intersection during the AM commuter peak hour (213m queue in 170m storage).

7. Under the Base Case scenarios (without the proposed development, but including Kenny and the Park & Ride), the following road upgrades are recommended:

a. 2023 Base Case: i. Works Package A – Park & Ride Access (Access), ii. Works Package B – Kenny Access (2023) (Access), iii. Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to

Kings Canyon Street (Road Network Performance), and iv. Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station

Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach (Road Network Performance).

b. 2031 Base Case: i. Works Package A – Park & Ride Access (Access), ii. Works Package B – Kenny Access (2023) (Access), iii. Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to

Kings Canyon Street (Road Network Performance), iv. Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station

Drive: Dual Right-Turn Lanes on West Approach (Road Network Performance),

v. Works Package G – Kenny Accesses (2031) (Access), vi. Works Package H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn

Lanes on South Approach (Road Network Performance), vii. Works Package I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

(Further Analysis Required), viii. Works Package J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to

Flemington Road (Geometric Constraints), and ix. Works Package K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway:

Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane (Further Analysis Required).




8. Under the EGHS Case scenarios (with the proposed development, Kenny, and the Park & Ride), the following road network upgrades are recommended to maintain an acceptable level of performance across the road network:

a. 2023 EGHS Case: i. Works Package A – Park & Ride Access (Access), ii. Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to

Kings Canyon Street (Road Network Performance), iii. Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station


iv. Works Package E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals (Access and Pedestrian Safety),

v. Works Package F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West (Geometric Constraints), and

vi. Works Package M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals (Pedestrian Safety).

b. 2031 EGHS Case (in addition to the above): i. Works Package A – Park & Ride Access (Access), ii. Works Package C – Well Station Drive Duplication: Flemington Road to

Kings Canyon Street (Road Network Performance), iii. Works Package D – Bettong Avenue / Horse Park Drive / Well Station


iv. Works Package E – Albatross Crescent West / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals (Access and Pedestrian Safety),

v. Works Package F – Well Station Drive Duplication: Kings Canyon Street to Albatross Crescent West (Geometric Constraints),

vi. Works Package G – Kenny Accesses (2031) (Access), vii. Works Package H – Flemington Road / Well Station Drive: Dual Right-Turn

Lanes on South Approach (Road Network Performance), viii. Works Package I – Hoskins Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic Signals

(Further Analysis Required), ix. Works Package J – Well Station Drive Duplication: Hoskins Street to

Flemington Road (Geometric Constraints), x. Works Package K – Federal Highway / Horse Park Drive / Majura Parkway:

Third Eastbound Through Traffic Lane (Further Analysis Required), xi. Works Package L – School Loop Road / Well Station Drive: Left-In, Left-

Out Access (Access), and xii. Works Package M – Kings Canyon Street / Well Station Drive: Traffic

Signals (Pedestrian Safety). 9. A range of parking assessments have been undertaken as follows:

a. Under the Bicycle Parking General Code, the proposed development has a requirement for:

i. 150 secure bicycle parking spaces at the high school, ii. Seven (7) convenient bicycle parking spaces, and iii. 10 showers and associated change rooms.

b. Under the Parking and Vehicular Access General Code, the proposed development has a requirement for:

i. 144 long-term car parking spaces, and ii. 72 short-term car parking spaces

c. The preliminary school Master Plan shows a total of 221 car parking spaces, which marginally exceeds the 216 car parking spaces required under the Parking and Vehicular Access General Code,




d. The 216 car parking spaces required under the Parking and Vehicular Access General Code must include:

i. 7 disabled car parking spaces, and ii. 6 motorcycle parking spaces.

e. A first principles car parking demand assessment was undertaken, based on the conservative traffic demands, and found that the car parking demands are likely to exceed the proposed and required car parking provision. This is considered to be acceptable as it will assist in driving a shift away from trips by private motor vehicle.

On the basis of the above, there are no traffic engineering reasons why the proposed development should not be approved, subject to appropriate conditions.

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