Transforming NOAA Water

Resources Prediction

WestFAST May 18, 2017

Presentation Outline

• Impetus for Change

• NOAA Water Initiative

• National Water Center (NWC) Status and Plans

• Partnerships

• New Prediction Capabilities: The National Water Model (NWM)

• Summary

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Impetus for Change Growing Water Challenges

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Multiple Threats

• Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability

• A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality, increasing uncertainty

• An aging water infrastructure is forcing critical, expensive decisions

• Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating

A significant gap exists between the state of hydrologic science and current hydrologic operations The level of sophistication, representation of processes, and characterization of uncertainties in external research and operational communities outpace those used in NWS hydrology operations

NWS Hydrologic Forecasters are extensively “in the forecast loop”

Improve pathways for collaboration & accelerate R2O

Establish a hydrologic prediction testbed as part of the National Water Center

Implement a consistent framework for hydrologic prediction skill assessment

Transition RFC forecasters to “over the loop” enabling a shift in focus to model and product development, forecast interpretation, and decision support

National Academy of Sciences Report, 2012 Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None

Findings Recommendations

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Lack of skill in modern computational programming, construction and use of new Earth System Models, current hydrologic data assimilation methodologies, and preparation and interpretation of meaningful ensemble predictions

Hydrologist staff require re-education and continual retraining to enable adoption of state-of-the-art prediction methodologies

Instill evolutionary culture

Add value to hydrologic forecasts through the use of more advanced models, data assimilation and employment of more sophisticated ensemble techniques

Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions

Collaborative Science-Based Solutions to Address Societal Needs

Water Information: Collects and disseminates reliable,

impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's

water resources to minimize loss of life and property from natural

disasters

US Army Corps

of Engineers

Water Prediction: Provide weather, water, and climate data,

forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

IWRSS Partnership

will expand over time

IWRSS Partnership anticipated to expand over time

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Water Management: Strengthens our Nation's security,

energizes the economy, and reduces risks from disasters

FEMA

Response and Mitigation: Supports our citizens and first

responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards

Initial Stakeholder Priorities

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Flooding Water

Quality Water

Availability Drought

Climate Change

Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks

Provide consistent, high resolution (“street level”), integrated water analyses, predictions and data to address critical unmet information and service gaps

Transform information into intelligence by linking hydrologic, infrastructural, economic, demographic, environmental, and political data

Integrate Social Science to create Actionable Water Intelligence

NOAA Water Initiative Overarching Goal: Transform water information service delivery

to better meet and support evolving societal needs

• User-Oriented, informed by Regional and National Conversations on Integrated Water Information

• Leverages the National Water Center to provide next-generation, science-based water information and decision support services.

• Calls for collaboration across federal agencies and with partners outside government

• Released in December 2016

http://www.noaa.gov/explainers/noaa-water-initiative-vision-and-five-year-plan

Improve Modeling & Prediction

Enhance Water-Related Observations

Strengthen Decision

Support Tools

Enhance Service Delivery

Accelerate Research & Development

Informed by social science

NOAA Water Initiative Key Objectives

Integrated Water Prediction Setting the Stage for Transformation

•National Water Model

(NWM) Development and

Demonstration

•Centralized Water Resources Data Services

•Water Resources Test and Evaluation Service

• Hyper-Resolution

Modeling

• Real-Time Flood Forecast Inundation Mapping

• Enhance Impact-Based Water Resources Decision Support Services

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• Stand up the National Water Center Operations Center

• Couple terrestrial freshwater and coastal estuary models for total water predictions in the coastal zone

• Increase high performance computing capacity

Centralized Water Forecasting

Demonstration (2015)

Integrated Water

Prediction

(2017 Proposed)

Enhanced Water Prediction Capability

(2016)

National Water Center

Initial Operating Capacity: May 26, 2015

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A catalyst to transform NOAA’s water prediction program

Mission: Nationally Integrated Water Prediction

• Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction

• Interagency and Academia Collaboration

• Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services

• Proving ground to accelerate research to operations

• Earth system modeling and geo-intelligence

National Water Center Annual Innovators Program

• Partnership between NWS and the academic community via an Interagency Agreement with the National Science Foundation and CUAHSI with two fundamental goals:

– Provide a Framework for Collaboration – Target Emerging Technologies

• Year one included a competitive Summer Institute for 44 graduate students from 19 Universities at the National Water Center, June 1 to July 17, 2015

– Demonstrated ability to simultaneously model the entire continental United States river network at high spatial resolution, in near real-time for 2.7 million stream reaches

• Year two included a competitive Summer Institute for 34 graduate students from 21 Universities at the National Water Center, June 6 to July 21, 2016

– Demonstrated the ability to generate flood inundation maps utilizing NWM output

– Engaged social scientists and stakeholders from the Fire, Police and Emergency Management Communities to explore ways to best communicate water information

National Water Model Version v1.1 implemented in May 2017

• Spatially continuous estimates of major water cycle components (snowpack, soil moisture, channel flow, major reservoir inflows, flood inundation)

• Operational forecast streamflow guidance for currently underserved locations: 3,600 forecast points -> 2.7 million (NHDPlus river reaches)

• Implement an Earth system modeling architecture with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) that permits rapid model evolution of new data, science and technology (i.e. WRF-Hydro)

• Ongoing Water Resource Evaluation Service (WRES) and Data Service (WRDS) to compliment implementation efforts

Current NWS River Forecast Points

overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches

National Water Model

Initial Operating Capability:

Model Chain

5. Channel &

Reservoir

Routing

Modules

4. NHDPlus Catchment

Aggregation

(2.7M unique

catchments and

river reaches)

2. NoahMP LSM

(1 km grid)

1. NWM Forcing Engine

(1 km grid)

3. Terrain Routing

Module

(250 m grid) 2-way coupling

Forecast

Products

NWM uses NCAR supported community WRF-Hydro system

NWM: http://water.noaa.gov/about/nwm

WRF-Hydro: https://www.ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro

National Water Model v1.1 Analysis and Forecast Cycling Configurations

Cycling Forecast

Forcing Outputs

Model output available at: https://water.noaa.gov

Movie (slide show to view)

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Three of four simulations capture peak magnitude

Strong agreement

NWM Forecast for Illinois River Near Tahlequah, OK on 4/27/17 Three Days Before Major Flooding

NWM V1.1 Forecast Assessment: Midwest Flooding April-May 2017 Illustrating the challenges of hydrologic forecasting

Event Summary • Indication of flooding 9 days in advance • Large forecast variability as precipitation

forcing evolves • Good though somewhat low-biased

streamflow forecasts at this location • Mixed performance across region • Quality of forcing impacts NWM forecast

Beyond Streamflow…Additional NWM Forecast Guidance Midwest Flooding April-May 2017

• NWM outputs several other water resource fields which can offer insight into potential for flooding

– Streamflow anomaly, near-surface soil saturation, depth to saturation, and ponded water

– Ponded water correlates well with placement of flash flood warnings and local storm reports

– Good performance of 18-hour forecast 17

Real-time NWM Analysis

NWM Ponded Water Field (mm) at 23Z on April 29th, 2017

Local Storm Report

Flash Flood Warning

Local Storm Report

Flash Flood Warning

Short-Range NWM Forecast (18-hour lead time)

Beyond Streamflow…Additional NWM Hydrologic Guidance NWM Analysis Output at 23Z on April 29th, 2017

Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Warning

Ponded Water

Depth to Saturation

Surface Layer Soil Moisture Saturation

Hourly Precipitation

Preventing Information Overload Prototyping Innovative Displays of NWM Information

• End users cannot click through 2.7 million stream reaches…they need data packaged in a way that draws their attention to critical areas

NWM Short Range Six-Hour Time Lagged Ensemble Forecast (probability of exceeding high flow threshold, based on 12 members)

Valid at 23Z on April 29th, 2017 High Flow Threshold

ln(flow) - ln(annual flow) > 4

Areas of high probability align with flash flood

watches and warnings

20 Precipitation-Streamflow Bias Comparison

Multivariate Verification: Focus on Precipitation and Streamflow

HRRR QPF Bias at 0.254 mm/h threshold

• Precipitation forcing is critical to NWM forecasts

• Active focus on precipitation forecast assessment and impact on streamflow

• Special emphasis on mountainous terrain in Western US

Focus on the West: NWM Version 1.1 Snow Modeling Enhancements

NoahMP multi-layer snow model was updated to modify surface roughness length formulation.

Outcome: Improved characterization of peak snowpack and snow ablation

Snotel

Snotel

• V1.1 implemented in May • Mean absolute error, correlation and bias of

SWE improved versus V1.0 • Validation using SNOTEL, SNODAS, NASA

Lidar, MODIS/MODSCAG, VIIIRS snow cover • Work underway to understand role of forcing

versus snow model physics on model skill

V1.0

V1.1

Change in NWM SWE MAE from V1.0 to V1.1 10-day NWM forecasts initialized on 12/24/16

(blue=improvement)

Snowpack improved in critical water supply areas

Focus on the West: NWM Version 1.1 Snow Modeling Enhancements

Month-Long CONUS-Wide Assessment

SNODAS used as baseline observation

NWM: Experimental Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts

• Began in WY2016 for Upper Rio Grande Compact basins • Custom NWM WRF-Hydro configuration • Colorado-NCAR-OWP collaboration • No water management

• Utilized classic ‘ESP’-based methodology • 2004-present period • NLDAS2 meteorological forcings (with

some downscaling) • Posterior bias correction applied to

accumulated Apr 1-Sep 30 flows • Results comparable to those of WGRFC

and NRCS methods

• WY2017 for all of Colorado Mountain Headwater locations • New domain • Utilizing NOAA-NWM physics configuration

and calibrations • Still using NLDAS2 meteorological forcings

WY 2017

WY 2016

WY 2017

“The WRF-Hydro forecast takes into account a much wider range of variables than the older NRCS forecasting technique, and is providing us with more accurate forecasts as we face a changing landscape caused by climate change, beetle kill, and wildfires in our watersheds.” -Craig Cotton, CDWR District Engineer for the Upper Rio Grande

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1. Forecast discharge with National Water Model 2. Convert discharge to depth using rating curve 3. Convert depth to inundation using HAND (relative elevation of land surface cell above cell in NHDPlus stream to which it flows)

Flood Inundation Mapping

Source: Yan Liu and Hu Hao, University of Illinois

at Urbana-Champaign David R. Maidment

University of Texas at Austin

Summary

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• NOAA’s Water Services are Evolving – We are building a foundation for change – but have a long way to go

– Stakeholder input will continue to inform future development activities, and the delivery and evolution of new services

• New Organization, Cornerstone Facility and Philosophy – Office of Water Prediction/National Water Center

– Collaborative, cross-NOAA, interagency, academic partnerships

• Implementing State-of-the-Art Technical Approach – Impact-based decision support services underpinned by geo-intelligence

– NWM establishes foundation for sustained improvement in water prediction and first ever nationally consistent operational hydrologic forecasting capability

– Focus moving forward will be on expanding evaluation capabilities, working with end users to improve NWM’s base capabilities and establish new connections

– NWM V1.1 implemented in May, will be followed by V1.2 in Fall of 2017

– Longer-term efforts will focus on improved regulation, domain expansions, coupling to coastal models, and hyper-resolution, low flow/drought and water quality modeling

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Backup Slides

NWM: Experimental Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts

• Example plots of ESP water supply forecast traces (left) and background model simulation performance (right) • Background multi-year

performance used as a statistical bias correction for current forecasts

• Total seasonal water supply forecasts (volume in thousands of acre-feet) bias corrected and calculated as median and mean of these ensembles

• Version 1.0 implemented August 2016, V1.1 implemented on May 8th

• Version 1.2 upgrades in progress for Fall 2017 release

– Expanded calibration of soil, vegetation, and groundwater parameters to 1,100 basins across CONUS

– Updates to NHDPlus geofabric to fix topology errors and extension to US-draining Mexico basins

– Inclusion of additional lakes and reservoirs

– Improved harmonization between DEM and NHDPlus channel network

– Improved stream flow data assimilation using time-varying bias-correction

– Capability for dynamic parameter updates

Future Plans: Upgrading to NWM V1.2

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