towards a sustainable energy future the global energy landscape the problem of energy –diminishing...

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future

The Global Energy Landscape

• The Problem of Energy– Diminishing supply?

– Resources in unfriendly locations?

– Environmental damage?

• The Solution– Adequate domestic supply

– Environmentally benign

– Conveniently transported

– Conveniently used


World Energy Consumption

2005 totals: 490 Q-Btu, 515 EJ, 16TW2030 projections: 720 Q-Btu, 760 EJ, 24TW

86% fossil

81%

Year

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

En

erg

y, Q

ua

dri

llio

n B

TU

0

50

100

150

200

250

Exa

Jou

les

(101

8)

0

52

104

156

208

260

Equ

ival

ent

Pow

er (

TW

, 10

12)

0

2

4

6

8History Projections Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

HydroelectricNuclear

Total Renewables

Other Renewables

Source: US Energy Information Administration

260,000,000,000 60W bulbs continuously


World Energy Consumption

Source: US Energy Information Agency(annual)264

211

158

106

52

0

Exa

Jou

les

(1018

)

8.4

6.7

5.0

3.3

1.7

0

Equ

ival

ent

Pow

er (

TW

, 10

12)

How good is the EIA at making projections??

Coal, actual


Fossil Fuel Supplies

0.0E+00

5.0E+04

1.0E+05

1.5E+05

2.0E+05

(Exa)J

OilRsv

OilRsc

GasRsv

GasRsc

CoalRsv

CoalRsc

Unconv

Conv

Rsv = Reserves (90%)Rsc = Resources (50%)

Source Reserves, yrs Resources, yrs Total, yrs

Oil 13 - 20 10 – 35 23 - 55

Gas 11 - 25 7 – 40 18 - 65

Coal 32 270 300

400 yrs

56-77 287-345



Reserves History for American Coal

0

500

1,000

1,500

1920 1960 2000

Re

serv

es,

Gt

Coal Commission (based on surveys by Marius Campbell of the USGS)

4,045 years

Paul Averitt (USGS)

2,136 years

1,433 years

Bureau of Mines/EIA (based on Paul Averitt’s surveys)

368 years 270 years 236 years

Courtesy: David Rutledge

“Hubbert Peak” type of analysis suggests 90% depletion by 2076


US Energy Imports/Exports: 1949-2004

1957: Net Importer

• 65% of known petroleum reserves in Middle East• 3% of reserves in USA, but 25% of world consumption

Total

Coal

Petroleum

Total

Petroleum

Net

Imports Exports


1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Qua

d B

TU

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Qua

d B

TU

Qua

d B

TU

35

30252015105

0


Environmental Outlook

year

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

[ppm

]

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340Global CO2 levels

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2009: 385 ppm

Projections:

500-700 ppm by 2020

• Anthropogenic– Fossil fuel (75%)– Land use (25%)

Industrial Revolution


Environmental Outlook

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001; http://www.ipcc.chN. Oreskes, Science 306, 1686, 2004; D. A. Stainforth et al, Nature 433, 403, 2005

- 8

- 4

0

+ 4

400 300 200 100

Thousands of years before present (Ky BP)

0

T r

ela

tive t

o

pre

sent

(°C

)

300

400

500

600

700

800

CH4 (ppmv

) -- CO2

-- CH4

-- T

325

300

275

250

225

200

175

CO2 (ppmv

)

CO2 in 2008: 385ppmv


Future Scenarios

Most optimitistic scenario Centuries for CO2 to decay

Courtesy: John Seinfeld


Future Scenarios

Highly optimitistic scenario: stabilize at 380 ppm

(aerosols)

Courtesy: John Seinfeld


Energy Outlook

Supply

• Uncertainty in assessing

• High geopolitical risk

• Rising costs

Environmental Impact• Target, by 2050

– Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppm

• Requires– 20 TW carbon-free power– One 1-GW power plant

daily from now until then

Urgency

• Transport of CO2 or heat into deep oceans:

– 400-1000 years; CO2 build-up is cummulative

• Must make dramatic changes within next few years


The Energy Solution

Solar1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface

600 TW practical

Biomass5-7 TW gross

all cultivatable land not used

for food

HydroelectricGeothermal

Wind2-4 TW extractable

4.6 TW gross1.6 TW technically feasible0.9 TW economically feasible0.6 TW installed capacity

12 TW gross over landsmall fraction recoverable

Tide/OceanCurrents2 TW gross

The need:~ 20 TW by 2050

Fossil with sequestration1% / yr leakage -> lost in 100 yrs

NuclearWaste disposal

60 yr uranium supply

Courtesy: Nate Lewis


A Sustainable Energy Cycle

Solar power plant

H2O

H2e-

Batteries

Capture

Storage

Delivery

Utilization

Hydrides? Liquid H2?

C-free Source

Hydrocarbon

???

Fuel cell

e-

H2O, CO2

+ CO2

towards a sustainable energy future the global energy landscape the problem of energy –diminishing...

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