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TRANSCRIPT
Too Many Medical Students:Too Few Residency Spots?
The Osteopathic ViewpointMark Cummings, Ph.D.Associate Dean, [email protected] May 25, 2011
Part I: COM Historical Developments
• Pace of COM Growth
•Enrollment Trends
•New Models for COMs
•Disconnect with Osteopathic GME
•What the Future Bodes for COMs
Total Enrollment in COMs1968-2010
Data drawn from the AACOM Annual Osteopathic Medical School Questionnaire
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201002468
10121416182022
Thousands
Total Enrollment
Total Enrollment 1.879 2.780 4.221 6.212 6.614 7.822 9.882 11.857 12.525 13.406 14.409 15.634 16.893 18.143 19.427
Part II: Postdoctoral Efforts To Keep Up
• Understanding Osteopathic GME
• Trends and Capacity in OGME
• Limited Educational Offerings
• A Troubled Future for Graduates
Trends in Osteopathic Matching1988-2011
*Data drawn from AOA Office of Education and the AACOM Annual Report
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20110
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Funded Slots Number Matched
No. of Non-Participants Unfilled Slots
Funded Slots 1515 1701 1799 1676 1877 1878 1814 1989 2147 2206 2312 2443 2553
Number Matched 1369 1257 1145 1385 1255 1353 1314 1291 1205 1196 1353 1473 1640
No. of Non-Participants 661 663 994 1212 1363 1356 1748 1992 2114
Unfilled Slots 146 502 654 291 622 525 500 698 942 1010 959 970 913
AOA Deficit in Residency Positions2005 to 2011
.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.4
1.6
2.8
4
Thousands
Match Participants
Option 1 & 2 Slots
Residency Deficit
Match Participants 2.908 2.886 3.173 3.600 3.899 4.106 4.581
Option 1 & 2 Slots 928 1.030 1.154 1.558 1.754 1.801 1.918
Residency Deficit 1.980 1.856 2.019 2.042 2.145 2.305 2.663
Top Ten Postdoctoral Choices2011 AOA Match Results
Specialty Number PercentFamily Practice 373 22.7
Internal Medicine 305 18.6Trad. Internship 245 14.9Emergency Med. 214 13.1General Surgery 102 6.2
Orthopedic Surgery 84 5.1OB/GYN 69 4.2Pediatrics 53 3.2
Anesthesiology 27 1.6Diag. Radiology 24 1.5
Positions Left Over in the AOA Match Program
2006-2011
Year Traditional Internships
Family Practice
Internal Medicine
Other Specialties
# of Unmatched
Students
Unfilled Positions
2006 615 170 93 132 123 1010
2007 534 180 88 120 182 922
2008 397 310 152 100 273 959
2009 422 306 173 101 361 1002
2010 379 339 174 78 423 970
2011 390 333 144 46 572 913
Number of DOs Scrambling*2006-2011
*Includes Current and Past Graduates
Year Match Participants
AOA Match Results
NRMP Match Results
No. in Scramble
2006 2886 1196 1024 6662007 3173 1267 1136 7702008 3600 1353 1339 9082009 3899 1433 1408 10582010 4106 1473 1444 11892011 4581 1640 1561 1380
DOs in Residency Training, 1995-2009Totals in AOA and ACGME Programs*
*DOs in AOA/ACGME Accredited Programs are Counted Twice
Year AOA ACGME Total Percent in AOA
1995 2606 3333 5939 43.9
1996 2141 3288 5429 39.4
1997 2632 3367 5999 43.8
1998 2998 3639 6637 45.1
1999 2928 3869 6797 43.1
2000 2781 4175 6956 39.9
2001 2499 4658 7157 34.9
2002 2532 5327 7859 32.2
2003 2523 5838 8361 30.2
2004 2422 5675 8097 29.9
2005 2535 6474 9009 28.1
2006 2989 6629 9618 31.1
2007 3289 6784 10073 32.7
2008 4794 7237 12031 39.8
2009 5247 7628 12875 40.8
Number of DOs in ACGME Residencies, 1992-2009 The Annual Number of DO Graduates, 1992-2009
92 94 96 98 OO O2 O4 O6 O8 O91200
2000
2800
3600
4400
5200
6000
6800
7600
DOs in ACGME Progs. No. of DO Grads.
DOs in ACGME Progs. 3137 3264 3288 3639 4176 5327 5675 6629 7237 7628
No. of DO Grads. 1532 1732 1932 2096 2279 2536 2769 2814 3462 3724
Based on Current Trends, Here are Some Concluding Thoughts
• The Number of COMs Will Continue To Increase Into the Future
• The Osteopathic Student Population Will Continue to Expand
• OGME Will Grow Slowly and Not Match the Pace of the COMs
• Osteopathic Dependence on ACGME Programs Will Increase
• Heightened Competition for AOA & ACGME Slots Will Occur
• The Number of AOA/ACGME Programs May Decline
• Osteopathic Medicine Will Remain Rooted in Primary Care
• The Disparity Between Students and GME Slots Will Worsen