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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IS ACCELERATING TODAY AT AN UNPRECEDENTED SPEED AND COULD CREATE A WORLD WE CAN BARELY BEGIN TO IMAGINE. TOMORROW’S    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

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Page 1: TOMORROW’S WORLD - Nature

T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E I S A C C E L E R AT I N G T O D AY AT A N U N P R E C E D E N T E D S P E E D A N D C O U L D C R E AT E A W O R L D W E C A N B A R E LY B E G I N T O I M A G I N E .

TOMORROW’S    WORLD

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Page 2: TOMORROW’S WORLD - Nature

n March 2001, futurist Ray Kurzweil published an essay arguing that humans found it hard to comprehend their own future. It was clear from history, he argued, that technological change is exponential — even though most of us are unable to see it — and that in a few decades, the world would be unrecog-nizably different. “We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate),” he wrote, in ‘The Law of Accelerating Returns’.

Fifteen years on, Kurzweil is a director of engineering at Google and his essay has acquired a cult following among futurists. Some of its predictions are outlandish or over hyped — but technology experts say that its basic tenets often hold. The evidence, they say, lies in the exponential advances in a suite of enabling technolo-gies ranging from computing power to data storage, to the scale and performance of the Internet (see ‘Onwards and upwards’). These advances are creat-ing tipping points — moments at which technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), biology, nanotechnology and 3D printing cross a threshold and trigger sudden and significant change. “We live in a mind-blowingly different world than our grandpar-ents,” says Fei-Fei Li, head of the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in California, and this will be all the more true for our children and grandchildren.

Kurzweil and others have argued that people find this pace of change almost impossible to grasp, because it is human nature to perceive rates of progress as linear, not exponential — much as when one zooms in on a small part of a circle and it appears as an almost straight line. People tend to focus on the past few years, but pulling back reveals a much more dramatic change. Many things that society now takes for granted would have seemed like futuristic nonsense just a few decades ago. We can search across billions of pages, images and videos on the web; mobile phones have become ubiquitous; billions of connected smart sensors monitor in real time everything from the state of the planet to our heart-beats, sleep and steps; and drones and satellites the size of shoeboxes roam the skies.

If the pace of change is exponentially speeding up, all those advances could begin to look trivial within a few years. Take ‘deep learning’, a form of artificial intelligence that uses powerful microprocessor chips and algorithms to simulate neural networks that train and learn through experience, using massive data sets. Last month, the Google-owned AI company DeepMind used deep learning to enable a computer to beat for the first time a human professional at the game of Go, long considered one of the grand challenges of AI. Researchers told Nature that they foresee a future just 20 years from now — or even sooner — in which robots with AI are as common as cars or phones and are integrated into families, offices and factories. The “disruptive expo-nentials” of technological change will create “a world where everybody can have a robot and robots are pervasively integrated in the fabric of life”, says Daniela Rus, head of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory

at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. After decades in development, applications of AI are moving into the

real world, says Li, with the arrival of self-driving cars, virtual reality and more. Progress in AI and robotics is likely to accelerate rapidly as deep-pocketed companies such as Google, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft pour billions of dollars into these fields. Gill Pratt, former head of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s Robotics Challenge, asked last year whether robotics is about to undergo a ‘Cambrian explo-sion’ — a period of rapid machine diversification (G. A. Pratt J. Econ.

Perspect. 29, 51–60; 2015). Although a single robot cannot yet match the learning ability of a toddler, Pratt pointed out that robots have one huge advan-tage: humans can communicate with each other at only 10 bits per second — whereas robots can com-municate through the Internet at speeds 100 million times faster. This could, he said, result in multitides of robots building on each other’s learning experi-ences at lightning speed. Pratt was hired last Sep-tember to head the Toyota Research Institute, a new US$1-billion AI and robotics research venture head-quartered in Palo Alto, California.

Many researchers say that it is important to pre-pare for this new world. “We need to become much more responsible in terms of designing and operating these robots as they become more powerful,” says Li.

In January 2015, a group including Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Stephen Hawking penned an open letter calling for extensive research to maxi-mize the benefits of AI and avoid its potential pitfalls. The letter has now been signed by more than 8,000 people.

Yet predicting the future can be a fool’s game — and not everyone is convinced that technological change will hit humanity quite so fast. Ken Goldberg, an engineer at the University of California, Berkeley, questions the idea that technologies advance exponentially across the board, or that those that do will continue indefinitely. “The danger of overly optimistic exuberance is that it could set unrealistic expecta-tions and trigger the next AI winter,” he says, alluding to periods in AI’s history where hype gave way to disappointment followed by steep cuts in funding. Goldberg says that recent warnings that AI and robots risk surpassing human intelligence are “greatly exaggerated”.

And Stuart Russell, a computer scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, questions the notion that exponential advances in technology necessarily lead to transformative leaps. “If we had comput-ers a trillion times faster we wouldn’t have human-level AI; half in jest, one might say we’d just get wrong answers a trillion times sooner,” he says. “What matters are real conceptual and algorithmic breakthroughs, which are very hard to predict.”

Russell did sign the Hawking letter — and says it is important not to ignore the ways that technologies could be taken in potentially

harmful directions with profound results. “We made this mistake with fossil-fuel technologies 100 years ago — now it’s probably too late.” ■

Declan Butler is a senior reporter for Nature.

W E L I V E I N A M I N D - B L O W I N G L Y

D I F F E R E N T W O R L D T H A N O U R G R A N D P A R E N T S .

TOMORROW’S    WORLD B Y D E C L A N B U T L E R

ILLU

STR

ATIO

N B

Y G

REY

GO

UA

R

I

FUTURE GENERATIONSA Nature special issuenature.com/futuregenerations

Nature

2 5 F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 6 | V O L 5 3 0 | N A T U R E | 3 9 9

FEATURE NEWS

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Page 3: TOMORROW’S WORLD - Nature

STAR

THE

RE!

COMP

UTIN

G POW

ERTh

e ex

pon

enti

al g

row

th in

su

per

com

put

ing

per

form

ance

is

one

ind

icat

or o

f d

izzy

ing

adva

nces

acr

oss

com

put

ing.

EN

ABLE

RS

ONWA

RDS

UPWA

RDS

Exp

onen

tial

adv

ance

s in

ena

blin

g te

chno

logi

es

have

rea

ched

the

poi

nt a

t w

hich

the

y co

uld

trig

ger

disr

upti

ve c

hang

e in

sec

tors

from

art

i�ci

al

inte

llige

nce

to r

obot

ics

to m

edic

ine.

As

a re

sult

, m

any

expe

rts

argu

e th

at t

omor

row

’s w

orld

will

be u

nrec

ogni

zabl

e fr

om t

hat

of t

oday

.

REAL

LY BI

G DAT

ATh

e am

ount

of

dat

a w

orld

wid

e is

p

red

icte

d t

o re

ach

a w

hop

pin

g 4

4 z

etta

byt

es (

10

21 b

ytes

) b

y 2

02

0 —

nea

rly

as m

any

dig

ital

b

its

as t

here

are

sta

rs in

the

U

nive

rse.

Thi

s gi

ves

mor

e ra

w

mat

eria

l for

art

i�ci

al-i

ntel

ligen

ce

mac

hine

s to

lear

n fr

om.

COMM

UNIC

ATIO

N SPE

EDM

eanw

hile

, the

per

form

ance

and

sc

ale

of t

he I

nter

net

imp

rove

s.

Bro

adb

and

and

WiF

i sp

eed

s ar

e in

crea

sing

, and

Int

erne

t d

ata

tra�

c w

ill e

xcee

d a

zet

tab

yte

this

ye

ar a

nd d

oub

le b

y 2

01

9.

All

thes

e fa

ctor

s ar

e no

w c

onve

rgin

g to

pus

h se

emin

gly

futu

rist

ic t

echn

olog

ies

out

of t

he la

b,

and

set

the

m o

n th

e sa

me

pat

h ta

ken

by

per

sona

l com

put

ing

and

con

sum

er e

lect

roni

cs.

Sup

erco

mp

uter

s in

20

20

ar

e lik

ely

to b

e 3

0 t

imes

m

ore

pow

erfu

l tha

n th

ose

of t

oday

.

A fu

ll br

ain-

activ

ity m

ap a

nd c

onne

ctom

eby

202

0 an

d by

204

0 it

will

be

rout

ine

to re

adan

d w

rite

dat

a to

bill

ions

of n

euro

ns. B

y 20

40,

1 bill

ion

peop

le w

ill h

ave

thei

r who

le g

enom

e se

quen

ced

and

get c

onst

ant u

pdat

es o

f the

ir

imm

unom

es a

nd m

icro

biom

es.

GEOR

GE C

HURC

HG

enet

icis

t at

Har

vard

Med

ical

Sch

ool,

Cam

brid

ge, M

assa

chus

etts

�e

prom

ise

for t

he fu

ture

is a

wor

ld w

here

ro

bots

are

as c

omm

on a

s car

s and

pho

nes,

a

wor

ld w

here

eve

rybo

dy c

an h

ave

a ro

bot a

nd

robo

ts a

re p

erva

sivel

y in

tegr

ated

in th

e fa

bric

of li

fe.

DANI

ELA

RUS

Hea

d of

the

Com

pute

r S

cien

ce a

nd A

rti�

cial

Int

ellig

ence

La

bora

tory

at

the

Mas

sach

uset

ts I

nsti

tute

of

Tech

nolo

gy,

Cam

brid

ge

In th

e ne

xt c

oupl

e of

gen

erat

ions

, we

will

see

the

first

pha

se o

f tru

e pe

rson

al, a

ssis

tive

robo

ts

in th

e ho

me

and

othe

r hum

an e

nvir

onm

ents

. �

ere

will

be

a hu

ge o

ppor

tuni

ty to

bet

ter t

he

qual

ity o

f life

, for

exa

mpl

e by

free

ing

up p

eopl

e fr

om w

ork.

FEI-

FEI L

IH

ead

of t

he S

tanf

ord

Art

i�ci

al I

ntel

ligen

ce L

abor

ator

y, C

alif

orni

a To

mor

row

’s sc

ient

ists

will

hav

e ar

mie

s of v

irtu

al

grad

uate

stud

ents

, doi

ng la

b w

ork,

stat

istic

al

anal

ysis

, lite

ratu

re se

arch

and

eve

n pa

per-

wri

ting

for t

hem

.PE

DRO

DOM

INGO

SM

achi

ne-l

earn

ing

rese

arch

er,

Uni

vers

ity

of W

ashi

ngto

n, S

eatt

le

A p

ossi

ble

‘Cam

bria

n ex

plos

ion’

in ro

botic

s w

ith a

rapi

d pe

riod

of i

ncre

dibl

e m

achi

ne

dive

rsifi

catio

n. R

obot

s com

mun

icat

ing

with

ea

ch o

ther

at s

peed

s tha

t are

100

mill

ion

times

fa

ster

than

hum

ans m

ight

allo

w sw

arm

s of

robo

ts to

bui

ld o

n ea

ch o

ther

’s le

arni

ng

expe

rien

ces a

t lig

htni

ng sp

eed.

GILL

PRA

TTH

ead

of t

he T

oyot

a R

esea

rch

Inst

itut

e, P

alo

Alt

o, C

alif

orni

a

BIOLO

GY BO

OMS

Con

cep

tual

and

tec

hnol

ogic

al

adva

nces

are

dri

ving

pro

gres

s in

b

iolo

gy. D

NA

seq

uenc

ing

cost

s ha

ve

falle

n at

an

exp

onen

tial

rat

e an

d t

he

num

ber

of

sequ

ence

s ha

s so

ared

sin

ce

19

85

(se

e in

set)

. Sim

ilar

adva

nces

are

ha

pp

enin

g in

neu

rosc

ienc

e an

d

bio

logi

cal n

anot

echn

olog

y.

LIKE I

T, PR

INT I

T3

D p

rint

ing

is b

ecom

ing

chea

per

and

qui

cker

— o

ne

fact

or t

hat

coul

d d

isru

pt

man

ufac

turi

ng a

nd a

llow

on

ce-p

rice

y ro

bot

ics

to b

e m

ass

pro

duc

ed.

—RISE

OF RO

BOTS

Pur

chas

es o

f ro

bot

s ar

e se

t to

roc

ket

as t

heir

cap

abili

ties

incr

ease

and

cos

ts

fall,

a t

rend

dri

ven

by

mas

sive

in

vest

men

ts in

art

i�ci

al in

telli

genc

e an

d r

obot

ics

by

the

mili

tary

and

by

com

put

ing

gian

ts s

uch

as G

oogl

e.

TALK

ING D

EVICE

SB

y 2

02

0, t

he n

umb

er o

f co

nnec

ted

sen

sors

and

d

evic

es in

bui

ldin

gs, c

itie

s an

d fa

rms

— t

he ‘I

nter

net

of

Thin

gs’ –

– w

ill b

e tw

ice

that

of

the

hum

an p

opul

atio

n.

BY D

ECLA

N BU

TLER

/ DE

SIGN

BY

WES

FER

NAND

ES

1

2

34

5

6

7

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

04

20

13

20

18

20

23

20

15

20

09

20

20

20

19

20

14

&

ILLUSTRATIONS BY GREYGOUAR

DRIVE

RS

TO TH

EFU

TURE

!

FUTU

REFO

CUS

Exp

ert

pred

icti

ons

END

HERE

!2

00

62

00

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01

02

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cast

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cast

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cast

0

10

,00

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ytes

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0 g

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ter

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ld’s

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com

pute

r

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ions

of

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hine

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ns)

0

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SOURCES: 4. CISCO VNI GLOBAL IP TRAFFIC FORECAST, 2014–2019; 5. NCBI; 6. EPSRC; DIRECT MANUFACTURING RESEARCH CENTER; ROLAND BERGER; 7. INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF ROBOTICS, JAPAN ROBOT ASSOCIATION; JAPAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, TRADE & INDUSTRY; EUROBOTICS; BCG.

FEAT

URE

NEW

S

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Page 4: TOMORROW’S WORLD - Nature

STAR

THE

RE!

COMP

UTIN

G POW

ERTh

e ex

pon

enti

al g

row

th in

su

per

com

put

ing

per

form

ance

is

one

ind

icat

or o

f d

izzy

ing

adva

nces

acr

oss

com

put

ing.

EN

ABLE

RS

ONWA

RDS

UPWA

RDS

Exp

onen

tial

adv

ance

s in

ena

blin

g te

chno

logi

es

have

rea

ched

the

poi

nt a

t w

hich

the

y co

uld

trig

ger

disr

upti

ve c

hang

e in

sec

tors

from

art

i�ci

al

inte

llige

nce

to r

obot

ics

to m

edic

ine.

As

a re

sult

, m

any

expe

rts

argu

e th

at t

omor

row

’s w

orld

will

be u

nrec

ogni

zabl

e fr

om t

hat

of t

oday

.

REAL

LY BI

G DAT

ATh

e am

ount

of

dat

a w

orld

wid

e is

p

red

icte

d t

o re

ach

a w

hop

pin

g 4

4 z

etta

byt

es (

10

21 b

ytes

) b

y 2

02

0 —

nea

rly

as m

any

dig

ital

b

its

as t

here

are

sta

rs in

the

U

nive

rse.

Thi

s gi

ves

mor

e ra

w

mat

eria

l for

art

i�ci

al-i

ntel

ligen

ce

mac

hine

s to

lear

n fr

om.

COMM

UNIC

ATIO

N SPE

EDM

eanw

hile

, the

per

form

ance

and

sc

ale

of t

he I

nter

net

imp

rove

s.

Bro

adb

and

and

WiF

i sp

eed

s ar

e in

crea

sing

, and

Int

erne

t d

ata

tra�

c w

ill e

xcee

d a

zet

tab

yte

this

ye

ar a

nd d

oub

le b

y 2

01

9.

All

thes

e fa

ctor

s ar

e no

w c

onve

rgin

g to

pus

h se

emin

gly

futu

rist

ic t

echn

olog

ies

out

of t

he la

b,

and

set

the

m o

n th

e sa

me

pat

h ta

ken

by

per

sona

l com

put

ing

and

con

sum

er e

lect

roni

cs.

Sup

erco

mp

uter

s in

20

20

ar

e lik

ely

to b

e 3

0 t

imes

m

ore

pow

erfu

l tha

n th

ose

of t

oday

.

A fu

ll br

ain-

activ

ity m

ap a

nd c

onne

ctom

eby

202

0 an

d by

204

0 it

will

be

rout

ine

to re

adan

d w

rite

dat

a to

bill

ions

of n

euro

ns. B

y 20

40,

1 bill

ion

peop

le w

ill h

ave

thei

r who

le g

enom

e se

quen

ced

and

get c

onst

ant u

pdat

es o

f the

ir

imm

unom

es a

nd m

icro

biom

es.

GEOR

GE C

HURC

HG

enet

icis

t at

Har

vard

Med

ical

Sch

ool,

Cam

brid

ge, M

assa

chus

etts

�e

prom

ise

for t

he fu

ture

is a

wor

ld w

here

ro

bots

are

as c

omm

on a

s car

s and

pho

nes,

a

wor

ld w

here

eve

rybo

dy c

an h

ave

a ro

bot a

nd

robo

ts a

re p

erva

sivel

y in

tegr

ated

in th

e fa

bric

of li

fe.

DANI

ELA

RUS

Hea

d of

the

Com

pute

r S

cien

ce a

nd A

rti�

cial

Int

ellig

ence

La

bora

tory

at

the

Mas

sach

uset

ts I

nsti

tute

of

Tech

nolo

gy,

Cam

brid

ge

In th

e ne

xt c

oupl

e of

gen

erat

ions

, we

will

see

the

first

pha

se o

f tru

e pe

rson

al, a

ssis

tive

robo

ts

in th

e ho

me

and

othe

r hum

an e

nvir

onm

ents

. �

ere

will

be

a hu

ge o

ppor

tuni

ty to

bet

ter t

he

qual

ity o

f life

, for

exa

mpl

e by

free

ing

up p

eopl

e fr

om w

ork.

FEI-

FEI L

IH

ead

of t

he S

tanf

ord

Art

i�ci

al I

ntel

ligen

ce L

abor

ator

y, C

alif

orni

a To

mor

row

’s sc

ient

ists

will

hav

e ar

mie

s of v

irtu

al

grad

uate

stud

ents

, doi

ng la

b w

ork,

stat

istic

al

anal

ysis

, lite

ratu

re se

arch

and

eve

n pa

per-

wri

ting

for t

hem

.PE

DRO

DOM

INGO

SM

achi

ne-l

earn

ing

rese

arch

er,

Uni

vers

ity

of W

ashi

ngto

n, S

eatt

le

A p

ossi

ble

‘Cam

bria

n ex

plos

ion’

in ro

botic

s w

ith a

rapi

d pe

riod

of i

ncre

dibl

e m

achi

ne

dive

rsifi

catio

n. R

obot

s com

mun

icat

ing

with

ea

ch o

ther

at s

peed

s tha

t are

100

mill

ion

times

fa

ster

than

hum

ans m

ight

allo

w sw

arm

s of

robo

ts to

bui

ld o

n ea

ch o

ther

’s le

arni

ng

expe

rien

ces a

t lig

htni

ng sp

eed.

GILL

PRA

TTH

ead

of t

he T

oyot

a R

esea

rch

Inst

itut

e, P

alo

Alt

o, C

alif

orni

a

BIOLO

GY BO

OMS

Con

cep

tual

and

tec

hnol

ogic

al

adva

nces

are

dri

ving

pro

gres

s in

b

iolo

gy. D

NA

seq

uenc

ing

cost

s ha

ve

falle

n at

an

exp

onen

tial

rat

e an

d t

he

num

ber

of

sequ

ence

s ha

s so

ared

sin

ce

19

85

(se

e in

set)

. Sim

ilar

adva

nces

are

ha

pp

enin

g in

neu

rosc

ienc

e an

d

bio

logi

cal n

anot

echn

olog

y.

LIKE I

T, PR

INT I

T3

D p

rint

ing

is b

ecom

ing

chea

per

and

qui

cker

— o

ne

fact

or t

hat

coul

d d

isru

pt

man

ufac

turi

ng a

nd a

llow

on

ce-p

rice

y ro

bot

ics

to b

e m

ass

pro

duc

ed.

—RISE

OF RO

BOTS

Pur

chas

es o

f ro

bot

s ar

e se

t to

roc

ket

as t

heir

cap

abili

ties

incr

ease

and

cos

ts

fall,

a t

rend

dri

ven

by

mas

sive

in

vest

men

ts in

art

i�ci

al in

telli

genc

e an

d r

obot

ics

by

the

mili

tary

and

by

com

put

ing

gian

ts s

uch

as G

oogl

e.

TALK

ING D

EVICE

SB

y 2

02

0, t

he n

umb

er o

f co

nnec

ted

sen

sors

and

d

evic

es in

bui

ldin

gs, c

itie

s an

d fa

rms

— t

he ‘I

nter

net

of

Thin

gs’ –

– w

ill b

e tw

ice

that

of

the

hum

an p

opul

atio

n.

BY D

ECLA

N BU

TLER

/ DE

SIGN

BY

WES

FER

NAND

ES

1

2

34

5

6

7

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

04

20

13

20

18

20

23

20

15

20

09

20

20

20

19

20

14

&

ILLUSTRATIONS BY GREYGOUAR

DRIVE

RS

TO TH

EFU

TURE

!

FUTU

REFO

CUS

Exp

ert

pred

icti

ons

END

HERE

!2

00

62

00

82

01

02

01

22

01

42

01

62

01

82

02

0

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

Fore

cast

Fore

cast

Fore

cast

0

10

,00

0

20

,00

0

30

,00

0

40

,00

0E

xab

ytes

10

0 g

iga�

op s

–1

10

ter

a�op

s–1

Per

form

ance

(lo

gari

thm

ic s

cale

)

1 p

eta�

op s

–1

10

0 p

eta�

op s

–1

10

exa

�op

s–1

10 0

20

30

40

50

Meg

abyt

e s–

1

WiF

i

Bro

adba

nd

Data

Wor

ld’s

mos

t pow

erfu

l super

com

pute

r

2 0468

10

3.3

4.1

5.2

6.6

8.4

10

.5

Bill

ions

of

mac

hine

-to-

mac

hine

con

nect

ions

Seq

uen

ce r

ecor

ds

in G

enB

ank

Whol

e ge

nom

e se

quen

ces

1,0

00

10

,00

0

10

0,0

00

1,0

00

,00

0

10

,00

0,0

00

10

0,0

00

,00

0

1,0

00

,00

0,0

00

Num

ber

of

sequ

ence

s (l

ogar

ithm

ic s

cale

)

Pri

ntsp

eed

10

cm

3 h

r –1

40

cm

3 h

r –1

80

cm

3 h

r –1

Glo

bal

rob

otic

mar

ket

(US

$b

illio

ns)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

MIL

ITA

RY:

Exo

skel

eton

s,

unm

anne

d a

eria

l veh

icle

s

IND

UST

RIA

L: W

eld

ing,

as

sem

bly

, pai

ntin

g ro

bot

s

CO

MM

ER

CIA

L: M

edic

al,

bui

ldin

g, fa

rmin

g ro

bot

s

PE

RS

ON

AL:

Cle

anin

g,

teac

hing

, chi

ldca

re r

obot

s

19

85

20

15

20

04

SOURCES: 1. TOP500; 2. IDC DIGITAL UNIVERSE STUDY, 2012; 3. CISCO VISUAL NETWORK INDEX (VNI), 2015.

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