global corporate platforms: competitive or obsolete for tomorrow’s world?
TRANSCRIPT
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GlobalStrategy
GlobalChallenges
Executable
Solutions
Brazil 2020: What BraGlobal Corporate Platforms Competi
Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.
zil will Look Like in the Future
ive or Obsolete for Tomorrows World?
France Houdard
Mana in [email protected]
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Preface: What Does the Worlds 5th L
W
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argest Country look Like from Space?
y?
1Source: NASA (United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
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. . .
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Framework: Structural Determinants
West Largely Uninhabitable
Manaus
Amazon Forest
Porto Aleg
Curiti
Worlds 5th Largest Country
Energy Independent, 45% Green
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Worlds 3rd Largest Food Exporter
of Brazils Economic Geography
80% Population in East
ACities HighestPopulationandFDI
SCities MidHighPopulationandFDI
Fortaleza
Salvador
ec e
Sao Paulo
Belo Horizonte
Rio De Janeiro
re
ba
Highly Advanced Economy
Aircraf t, Automobiles, Petrochem
3
Agr ibusiness & Natural Resources
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Economy: Growth in Brazils Econom
IMF Projected Growth
Brazil GDP (P3.0 (USD,
2.5
2.0
USDtrillio
n
1.5
1.05 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
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19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
19
9
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
Rate at 6% for Next 5
PP Adjusted)
Host the World Cup(2014)
trillion) Host Olympics(2016)
Global Financial Crisis
FForecas
t
I
Actua
l
2x
5 6 7 8 9 f f f f f f
4Source: World Bank, IMF
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
20
0
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
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Wealth: Brazil to have 2nd Highest G
Brazil GDP per Capita: USD 5,70
$10,000
$8,000
,
,
0
,
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Brazil Russia
P per Capita among BRIC Countries
0 (2009) USD8,800 (2020)
2020
5Source: ERSUSDA
China India
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Income: Brazil Per Capita Disposable
Per Capita Disposable Income Gr
80,000
(USD pe
60,000
70,000
40,000
50,000
20 000
30,000
10,000
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0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20
Income in Tandem with China
wing at Average 6% Per Annum
Brazil
Russia
China
India
annum)
6Source: GS Global ECS Research
5 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
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Resources: Rich in Mineral Resource
Worlds 3rd Largest Iron Producer
IRON
Worlds
3rd largest iron producer
4th largest iron reserves
MANGANESE
Worlds
6th largest manganese producer
3rd largest manganese reserves
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Iron Ore, Manganese, Gold
3rd Largest Manganese Reserves
World Iron Production(13% share, 2009) China
us ra a
Brazil
India
Russia
Ukraine
South Africa
Iran
Canada
United States
Kazakhstan
Sweden
Venezuela
World Manganese Reserves(17 % share, 2009)
MexicoMauritaniaOther
Australia
raz
China
Gabon
India
17%
Mexico
South Africa
Ukraine
7Source: US Geological Survey
Othercountries
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Resources: Global Power in Natural
Worlds Second Fuel Ethanol Produ
ETHANOL
Worlds
2nd
fuel ethanol producer
First (#1) fuel ethanol exporter
TIMBER
Worlds
4th timber producer
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esources, Energy Production
er 4th Largest Timber Producer
World Ethanol Production(33% share, 2009)
USA
Brazil
EU
China
Thailand
Canada
Colombia
India
Australia33 %
United StatesTop 10 Timber Producers(7.1% share, 2003)
Other
China
Brazil
Canada
Russia
Indonesia
Ethiopia
8Source: Renewable Fuels Association
7.1%ongo
Nigeria
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Resources: A Global Power in Agricul
Worlds Largest (#1) Green Coffee
SOYBEANS
Worlds
2nd soybeans producer
Largest (#1) soybeans exporter
COFFEE
Worlds
Leading (#1) coffee producer
Leading (#1) coffee exporter
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ure Soybeans, Coffee, Beef
roducer 2nd Soybeans Producer
United States
Brazil
World Soybeans Production26% share, 2008
Argentina
China
India
Paraguay
Canada
Bolivia
Uruguay
Ukraine
Indonesia
26% RussiaOther
World Green Coffee Production36% share 2008
Brazil
Vietnam
36%
Colombia
Indonesia
Peru
Ethiopia
Mexico
India
Guatemala
Uganda
Honduras
9Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, International Coffee Organization
Costa Rica
Phillipines
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The Future 2020: 1 of 5 Countries Highest
> USD3 trillion GDP 100+ m
Over3 million sq km
Canada
razUS
IndiaChina
Australia
Germany
United Kin
Franc
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Combined - GDP, Population, Resources
illion people > 3 million sq km
Over100 mil lion People
Indonesia
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Philippines
Nigeria
Mexico
Ethiopia
J apan
OverUS$3 trillion GDP (PPP)dom
e Italy
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, ,
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Corporate Burning Platforms: Market
Market Access/Revenue Growth
R&D
Knowledge
Engineering IT
F&A
Effi
Pr/A
C
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es
s, Resources, Innovation
Global Structural Cost Reduction
Sales
Markets
ServiceHR
ProcureEfficiency/
Shared Services
ciency
ductionsembly
Resources/
Innovation
Knowledge
STMarkets /
Revenues
12
urces DRIVINGShareholder Value
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1. Market: Car Sales/Production Pro
Leading Position for Car
Brazil
700
ChinaIndia
(units per 1,000 people)
600
400
200
300
100
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
y for Directional Market Sizing?
Penetration among BRIC
ar ene ra on n raz(units per 1,000 people)
250
200
150
100
50
13
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sources: GS Global ECS Research, Other
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1. Market: Projected to be Worlds 5t
USD47 billion Market
Pharmaceutical Marke(2000 2015
USA 150
J apan 58
USA 262
J apan 65
ermany
France 17
UK 11
ermany
France 21
UK 16
Italy 11
China 6.8
Brazil 6.7
Italy 15
China 13
Brazil 10
Canada 6.3
Spain 6.2
Canada 10
Spain 9.8
Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.. Sources: IMS; GSK, Assessment of Opportuni
Largest Pharma Market by 2015
y 2015 5th in World
Size Country Ranking- USD billion)
USA 441
J apan 75
USA 524
China 103
ermany
France 39
China 34
apan
Germany 55
Brazil 47
UK 32
Italy 28
Brazil 24
France 44
UK 36
Italy 31
Canada 22
Spain 21
Russia 30
India 28
14y for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets J MCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus
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1. Market: High Spending Growth Re
Sales Growing
Retail Sal
900
700
800
DMillion
400
500
U
200
300
100
2003 2004 2005 2006
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sumes after Global Crisis
at 28% CAGR
s Growth
2007 2008 2009 2010
15Source: EIU, Planet Retail
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2. Revenue/Costs: Where are Pareto-
Intersection of Natural Resources (W
Per Capita Annual Income(USD, PPP-Adjusted) Per Ca ita GDP
Ama
Roraima
> 14,500
10,000 14,500
7,500 - 10,000
5,500 -7,500
Para
AmazonasACities
SCities
0 5,500
Mato Grosso
RondoniaAcre
Mato Grosso
do Sul
Rio Gran
Para
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Optimal Market/Resource Envelopes?
st) A/S Cities People (East)
/ A/S-Cit Overla
pa
Paraiba
Rio Grande do NorteCearaMaranhao
Bahia
au
TocantinsSergipe
Alagoas
ernam uco
Sao Paulo
Minas GeraisGoias
Espirito Santo
o e ane ro
de
na
Santa Catarina
16Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
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2. Production/Resources: Where are
Car Investment Proxy for
Brazil Automot
Manaus
OEMs
Suppliers
CuritibOEMs
SuppliersPorto Aleg
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other Key Investment Nodes?
Investment Destinations?
ive Production
Fortaleza
OEMs
Salvador
ec e
Suppliers
Sao Paulo
Belo Horizonte
Rio De Janeiro
oianis
OEMs
a
re
Suppliers
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2. Production/Resources: Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo State (248,209 km sq) l a r g e
Sao Paulo State(248,209 km sq)
Sao Paulo State
Sao Paulo City
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tate Immense, Larger than the UK
t h a n United Kingdom (243,610 km sq)
United Kin dom Countr (243,610 km sq)
18Sources: Publically Available Information
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2. Production/Resources: Manageme
Sao Paulo Brazils Leading Fo
Sao Paulo State,
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nt Sourced in Sao Paulo, Labor Local
reign Investment Destination
Campinas
Pau
lo
OsascoMau
San J ose dos Campos
S
Sao Bernardo do Campo
19Sources: Publically Available Information
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2. Production/Resources: Rio State I
Rio de Janeiro State (43,696 km
Rio de Janeiro (State)(43,696 km sq)
Rio de J aneiro City
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o e ane ro a e
mense, as Large as Countries
q) r o u g h l y s am e si ze Sw i t z e r l a n d
Switzerland Countr(41,285 km sq)
20Sources: Publically Available Information
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2. Production/Resources: Manageme
Rio de Janeiro Region a Leading Invest
Rio de Janeiro State,
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nt Sourced in Rio, Labor Local
ent Destination for Oil and Gas Sector
21Sources: Publically Available Information
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3. Innovation: Where are Leading In
Innovatio
Manaus
San PSao J
Santa Rita d
Curitiba
Sao Leopoldo
Copyright2010Exolus.Allrightsreserved..
Por
Sources: Kirsten Bound, Brazil t
ovation Nodes?
n clusters
FocusAreas
Fortaleza
Sao Luis
Electronics
Lifesciences
Informationtechnology
Recife
Health
Microelectronics
Nuclearenergy
Salvador
Belo Horizonte
Aeronaut cs
Oiltechnology
Agriculture
Bioenergy
ulo Rio De Janeiroose de Campos
e SapucaiVitoria
Florianopolis
22
to Alegre
e Natural Knowledge Economy; Isabel Bortagaray, Innovation Clusters in Latin America
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3. Innovation: The Largest Aerospac
Anchor: Em b r a e r Worlds 3r
AerolaneLacit
Akaer
Brascopter
Embrasim
UTEC
PanMetal
Friuli
EQE
ESRA
Finetornos
GloboUsinagem
AmbraSolutions
GeometraBTE
Copyright2011Exolus.Allrightsreserved..
ovann assare a
GraunaAerospaceInbraAerospace
Cluster in Southern Hemisphere
Largest Aircraft Manufacturer
Solutions&DesignEngineering
Tec las
Lima&Bonf
VBJEngenharia
VectraTechnology
Rastreal
LaneDesign
FlightSolutions
FlightTechnologies
TKA
MikroStamp
PhoenixServiosAeronuticos
GMPMarcatto
Gyrofly
Lanmar
23
FibraforteEngenharia
Massucato
Sources: DECOMI, Brazilian Aerospace Cluster, Believing in Great Ideas
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3. Innovation: A Global Leader in Gr
Installed Green Energy: Brazil 45%
Primar En
100%Green 45% Gree
70%
80%
50%
60%
30%
40%
10%
20%
Copyright2011Exolus.Allrightsreserved..
Brazil OE
en Energy - Biomass, Hydro
OECD Average 7% World 12%
er Su l *
8% Green 12%
Geo/Sol/Wind
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
24Source: International Energy Agency, Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy
D World *For Year 2008
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Brazil Economic Outlook: Large Forex
Worlds 7th Largest Forex Reserves Low
z BrazilHoldsTheWorlds7thLargestForeign In2011theCentralBankhasaccumulatedove
billion
in
2004.
Theaccumulationoflargeexternalsurpluses
z LowExternalDebt/GDPRatioandPositiveCu Healthy
external
debt
to
GDP
ratio
at
14%
of
Federalbudgetdeficitat2.3%GDPin2010;p
z BrazilsBankingSystemunderStableandRap Banking
deposits
grew
at
CAGR
or
over
29%
du
peopletobanksystem. Moreover,thedeposit
creditcrunch.
Bankingsectorassetsareprojectedtogrowat
Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved..
eserves, Positive Fundamentals
External Debt Growing Banking System
xchangeReserves: USD316billionrUSD316billioninforeignreserves,upfromUSD50
eansfinancialsystemenjoysabundantliquidity.
rrentAccountBalanceDP
in
2010.
rojectedtodecreaseto1.7%ofGDPin2011.
dExpansionring
2002
2008
which
indicate
strong
confidence
of
systemremainedmostlyunaffectedthroughtheglobal
CAGRof10%from2010to2013.
27Source: CentralBankofBrazil,OECD
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For a Comparative PerspectivePlease Refer to the Foll
China 2020 India
Found on S
http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worl
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2
Download
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www.exolus.com/en/k
with the other BRIC Countrieswing Research Reports
2020 Russia 2020
lideshare @
s-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future
020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future
Reports @
28
owledge/research.html
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Global Ex ansiCross-Border Inve
(Greenfield, M&A, Joint
About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consultmanagement teams in the development of their global eformats: Greenfield, M&A, J oint Ventures and Outsourcirovidin ro ram mana ement across all hases of cro
searches and evaluation, through investment structuring
The founders of Exolus have spent the past two decadeexperience operating in nearly all of the major investmenas serve c en s o a s zes, o pu c an prva e, o
million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served cliSciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail
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on Strate & stment Executionentures, Outsourcing)
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and negotiations.
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Disclaimer
In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders ocontributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are aselfless, contributions that are availed in the process.
The opinions represented herein were prepared for inThe information represented herein is believed to be r
various public sources also believed to be reliable. Tpo n o crea on, an ur er, any vews, orecas s, orat anytime without notice. The opinions expressed oralso Exolus, or any associated affiliates.
as, used or relied upon as advice on any matter. It shrecommendation or solicitation on behalf of the authorreason of this document. Thus, the reader shall make
The author shall not accept responsibility, express or i
completeness of the information herein, and the autho.and liability to all persons, entities, or organizations foon the whole or any part of this publication.This publication should not be reproduced or distributdistribution in an urisdiction in which this would be
Copyright 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved..
others and, in the process, we strive to make our ownlways tremendously grateful for the many, often
ormation purposes only, at the time of publication.liable, at the time of publication, and was obtained by
e opinions were considered to be accurate at thes ma es con a ne ere n may e su ec o c angeimplied herein may not be the opinions of the author,
, ,
ll not constitute or be construed as a, and no legal commitment or obligation shall arise byan independent assessment of opinions stated
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mplied, with regards to the accuracy and
r shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoever, ,all consequences arising out of any use or reliance
d without the authors consent and is not intended forohibited.
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