tobacco in kenya in the african context data for the who tobacco control meeting of sub-saharan...
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Tobacco in Kenyain the African context
Data for the WHO Tobacco Control Meeting of Sub-Saharan Countries
Nairobi, October 2000
Emerging Tobacco Problem in Africa
• Disease and death caused by tobacco is an emerging problem in Africa.
• The age for smoking initiation is getting younger and younger
• In 1999, Africa smoked 4% of World cigarette consumption.
Adolescent Smoking in Africa
Males Females
Senegal (Dakar) (10-20 year old) 1989 70% 52%
Niger (15-35 years old) 1991 41% 11%
Ethiopia (18-20 years old) 1980 38% 3.4%
Benin (400 students) 1986 12% 2%
Ghana (secondary school) 1994 6% 1%
Cigarette Consumption Increasing in Kenya
Total Cigarette Sales in Kenya 1970-1999
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1970 1980 1990 1999
Mil
lio
n s
tick
s o
f ci
gar
ette
s
Cigarette Consumption Per Capita of 15+ age group in Selected African Countries
1999(pieces of cigarettes)
20 80 111 161 196 205282 295 305 331 382 408
580 616744
1734
Gui
nea
Ethi
opia
Moz
ambi
que
Mal
awi
Gha
na
Tanz
ania
Mad
agas
car
Nig
eria
Zim
babw
e
Zam
bia
Sier
raLe
one
Ken
ya
Cot
ed'
'Ivoi
re
Cam
eroo
n
Sene
gal
Mau
ritiu
s
Smoking Prevalence by Gender for Selected Africa Countries
24%33% 36% 39% 39% 40% 42%
47%51%
60%65%
7% 8%15%
1%7%
25%
2% 4%10%
44%35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Ni
geria
(90)
Swaz
iland
Zim
babw
e (9
0s)
Leso
tho
(92)
Zam
bia
Zaire
(92)
Cote
d''I
voire
(77)
Mau
ritiu
s (9
2)
Seyc
helle
s (8
9)
Gui
nea
(98)
Nam
ibia
(94)
Prev
alen
ce ra
te
Men
Women
Evidence of the Adverse Health Impact of Tobacco Use for Selected African Countries
• Botswana Lung cancer accounted for 14% male cancer deaths, 7% for females during 1985-89.
• Mali 82% of ischaemic heart disease patients, 89% of emphysema patients and 66% of lung cancer patients are smokers.
• Seychelles Tobacco related causes one-third of all deaths in men and women
• South Africa25,450 smoking related deaths were reported in 1988
• Zimbabwe Lung cancer cases increased in men from 64 in 1986 to 112 in 1992.
Changing burden of disease pattern in developing countries, 1990 and 2020
Changing burden of disease pattern in 1990
Noncommunicable diseases 38%
Injuries 15%
Communicable diseases 47%
Changing burden of disease pattern in 2020
Noncommunicable diseases 58%
Injuries 21%
Communicable diseases 21%
Smokers spend significant amounts on tobacco products
• In 1996, a smoker in Kenya who works:– in public sector spent 3.1% of annual
income on cigarettes
– in private sector spent 2.8% of annual income on cigarettes
Average Tobacco Expenditure as % of GDP Selected African Countries in 1999
0.6% 0.6%1.0%
1.3% 1.3%1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
3.2%
3.8%
Gab
on (9
8)
Zim
babw
e
Gha
na
Mal
awi
Sene
gal
Sier
raLe
one
Cote
d'Iv
oire
Zam
bia
Tanz
ania
Mau
ritiu
s
Nige
ria
Keny
a
Cam
eroo
n
Ango
la
Tobacco Control Policies tend to be weak in Countries in Africa
• ADVERTISING BAN ON SALES HEALTH BAN ON BAN TO MINORS WARNING PUBLIC PLACES
• Benin N/A No Yes Some• Botswana All media age < 16 yes Some• Burkina Faso Regulated No Yes• Cote d'Ivoire Yes but, not on TV No No Some • Ghana No Yes No No
• Kenya No No No Some• MauritiusYes 18 years No Yes• Namibia No No Yes Some• Niger Banned No No Yes• Nigeria Banned No Yes Some• South Africa Regulated Banned Yes Some• Togo Radio No No No• Uganda No No No Some• Zaire No No No Some• Zambia Media No Yes Some
Tobacco Tax Revenues (Excise+VAT) as % of Total Tax and
GDP in Kenya in 1998
43%
7%2%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
% of excise % of total tax % of GDP
% S
har
e o
f to
bac
co t
ax
reve
nu
e
Cigarette Excise Tax Rate in Selected African Countries in 1999
10%13%15%
32%
60%
125%
171%180%
25%21%
65%70%
75%80%
90%
135%
58%
20%30%
40%
To
go
Bu
rkin
a F
aso
Mala
wi
Ch
ad
CA
R
Cam
ero
on
Nam
ibia
Nig
er
Co
te d
''Ivo
ire
Sie
rra L
eo
ne
Tan
zan
ia
Sen
eg
al
Nig
eri
a
Mali
So
uth
Afr
ica
Mad
agascar
Mo
zam
biq
ue
Co
ng
o
Eth
iop
ia
Zim
bab
we
Gu
inea
Zam
bia
Ken
ya
Gh
ana
Mau
riti
us
% o
f ex
-man
ufa
ctu
rin
g o
r re
tail
pri
ce
Choosing the Right Types of Excises
Types oftaxes
BetterQuality andMoreVariety
Under highinflation regime,generating highrevenues
Protection todomestic brandsagainstinternationalbrands
Need to setminimum pricesfor securingrevenue
Administration
Specific Yes(upgradingeffect)
No(should beadjusted by CPI)
No No Easy
Ad-Valorem
No Yes Yes(multiplier effect,higher the price,higher the taxes)
Yes(due to differentdefinition set for ad-valorem bycountries)
Not easy(not easy to definebase for advalorem)
Mauritius Tobacco Excise Tax Revenue 1993/94 and 1997/98
CPI, 1990=100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
No
min
al r
even
ue
(mil
lio
n
rup
ees)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Rea
l ta
x re
ven
ue
(mil
lio
n
rup
ees)
Nominal Tob. Excise Revenue
Real Tob. Excise Revenue
Trends in Tobacco Leaves Production and its % Change from the Previous Year in
Kenya, 1980-1997
85%
74% 14% -10% 11%-30%
42% 0%0%
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.00019
80
1985
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
MT
Tobacco Trade and Net Earnings (Export-Import) in Kenya 1980-1995
31141646
70327015 9087 12122
-1694
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1980 1985 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
(100
0 U
S$)
Import Export Balance
WHY DEAL WITH TOBACCO CONTROL WHILE AFRICA FACES OTHER IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES
• TOBACCO IS AN EMERGING PROBLEM
• HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE IS LOW IN MOST AFRICAN COUNTRIES, TOBACCO CONTROL CAN PREVENT DISEASE
• INCREASING TOBACCO TAX RATES COULD HELP TO BALANCE THE BUDGET
• AFRICA STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BE TOBACCO-FREE CONTINENT IN THE 21 ST. CENTURY