to understand the voting behavior of the urban youth (india)

TYBBA C - GROUP 6

Arveen Shaheel C007

Dhawal Pasad C011

Jasmeet Kaur Dhillon C017

Rabani Kharbanda C034

Surbhi Mehta C045

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CONTENTS Particulars Page Number

Acknowledgement 3

Executive Summary 4

Introduction 5

Methodology 7

Limitations 8

Results/Findings 9

Conclusion & Recommendations 40

Bibliography 41

Appendix 42

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We sincerely thank ASM-SOC of NMIMS Deemed-to-be University for giving us an opportunity to conduct and prepare a research project. The project gave us immense field knowledge through both primary and secondary research.

We would like to thank Mr. Kamlesh Kedarnath Rai, Councillor, K/E Ward for giving us the opportunity to interact with him and help us understand our topic in an enhanced manner.

Further, we would like to thank our professor, Ms. Pallavi Rallan, for her guidance and invaluable inputs that helped steer our project in the right direction.

Thank you.

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Executive Summary

With India going into elections in 2014, there’s been a constant buzz and unavoidable conversations about Politics. People have shifted from indifference & resentment towards Politics, to talking about the subject & finally finding solutions. With majority of Indians comprising of the Youth, we believed they held the key to unlocking the future of Politics, & their thought process is one, that no longer can the Political Parties ignore.

It’s this idea that inspired us to go ahead with our research which is- “To understand the Voting Behavior of the Urban Youth”. We understood Politics is something personal, and talking about it & revealing ones real intentions may not be easy. Hence, whatever findings from the survey have been received are compared & correlated with past/secondary data. Also, to make a questionnaire on politics and what influences ones thinking about it is not exhaustive. Hence, to create the questionnaire, we first had in-depth interviews with the Youth, to try and gauge the factors that influence one’s vote, and make the questions exhaustive in nature. Thereby, creating a questionnaire with questions that will be close ended, so that statistical tools can be applied to it.

After obtaining the results, we were aware the results might hold biases & politically correct answers that may not reveal their true intentions. Hence, it was compared with secondary data to verify the application of our findings in the real world. And, to also get a more holistic picture, we have spoken to an expert from the field who provided us information from his vast experience and knowledge, regarding this complex field.

The intention of the research is to find the factors that influence the vote of the urban youth, & whether the urban youth exercise their right to vote.

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Introduction

India is known to the world as the Largest Democracy. It comprises of 28 different states, each with its own unique characteristic. It’s also known for its vast diversity, and being home to different religions, making it a truly remarkable country on the World Map.

With such diversity, and various contradicting viewpoints existing in the Indian Society, it’s noting to see how the country chooses its Leader. A Leader who can maintain this balance in diversity, and at the same time, satisfy the growing aspirations and needs of this young ambitious nation.

With the median age of young India being 26.21, & rapid urbanization taking place across India, We’re witnessing a new India. These winds of change & peculiar characteristics of India and its people inspired us to understand the thought process of the urban youth when they decide to cast their vote.

1 http://mg.co.za/article/2013-‐04-‐19-‐00-‐india-‐the-‐worlds-‐largest-‐democracy

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Research Problem

Hence, we wanted to investigate on –

“To understand the Voting Behavior of The Urban Youth”

Source of Research Problem

Brainstorming amongst the group & being exposed to extensive Political updates from News & Conversations (Daily Experience) helped us choose the research problem

Research Objective:

1. Factors influencing the vote of the urban youth

2. Choice between Political party v/s Individual Leader

3. Activities of political party influencing voting behavior (past history, current activities, events etc.)

4. Biased/Unbiased behavior towards casting a vote (caste, creed, religion, family values, opinion of peers etc.)

5. Reflection of youth's behavior on the final outcome

Criteria for selecting the Problem

• Internal Factors: Researcher’s Interest

• External Factors: Social Relevance

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Methodology

Research Design:

We have adopted two designs in moving forward with this research.

Exploratory Research to understand the various possible factors that may influence the Urban Youths’ choice of voting. And Descriptive Research to understand "What" is the behavior of the Urban Youth towards voting by analyzing the factors that we had noted in our Exploratory Research.

Data Collection Method:

For the purpose of data collection both secondary data and primary data have been used.

Secondary data is collected from an interview with Mr. Kamlesh Rai and various online political forums, articles from newspapers and magazines, blogs, past political results etc.

Primary data has been collected in the form of a survey comprising of a detailed questionnaire, which has been filled by a sample population comprising of urban youth.

Population:

Youth population (age group 18-25) of Mumbai are surveyed

Sampling Method:

Sample was chosen through Deliberate Sampling.

Sample Size:

100 for survey; 1 for qualitative research

Questionnaire Design:

The questionnaire design used here is Structured and Non-disguised as a fixed set of questions are asked to every respondent and the respondent is aware about the purpose of the research. The questions are structured to obtain facts and are asked in a prearranged order.

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Limitations:

The limitations to the research are as follows:

• The sample for our survey is restricted to individuals ranging from 18 years to 25 years as the research tries to study the behavior of the youth.

• The sample for our survey just targets youth of Mumbai, which might not match with the results of the entire urban youth if considered.

• The research has been conducted in a time frame of 10 days, which does not take into account the change in behavior of the urban youth.

• The number of respondents is restricted to 112 due to ease and simplicity of analysis. • The responses we received in our survey cannot be held true to the word as, politics is a

sensitive topic and answers can be manipulated or lack honesty. • Getting detailed information for our secondary research was difficult.

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RESULTS/FINDINGS

Demographics/Sample:

Analysis:

We have begun the Questionnaire with the primary question of –

Q1. Do you have a Voter ID card?

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An important aspect about this Research Topic is that whatever findings we have collected of the Voting Behavior & the factors that influence it, it will hold no value in the real world, if these don’t convert to Votes on the day of the elections.

For the purpose of it to convert to Votes, the Urban Youth must possess a Voter’s ID card. This question acts as a first step to understanding the characteristics & impact of our population on Indian Politics.

From the results, it is observed that 60% of the Youth don’t possess a Voter ID, hence disqualifying them from casting a vote. And, only 40% possess the Voter ID.

Questions that follow will probe further & help answering the reasons of why we observe this trend.

If the respondent’s answer to Q1. - No.

Q2. Why don't you have a Voter ID card?

This question deals with finding the probable reasons of Why the Urban youth doesn’t have a Voter ID card with them.

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From the results, it can be observed that there are 2 choices that are the most recurring. They are:

1. Your Application is in Process – This is an encouraging number to see, as it shows the Urban Youth are taking the first step towards exercising their right to Vote. It also gives more importance to our research findings, as the opinions we have recorded have a higher probability of getting exercised in the Real World. A high number of responses for “Application in Process” can also be attributed to the fact that, The Lok Sabha Elections are scheduled to take place next year – 2014, & with Election Drives & awareness being created during this period, a lot of people Apply for their Voter’s ID.

2. Too Lazy to Apply/Process is Cumbersome – This is another factor that the Urban Youth believe is the reason for not having a Voter ID. The responses shows the Youth don’t prioritize/value their right to Vote, as they believe the work towards obtaining a Card is an obstacle. However, on further investigation by doing Secondary Research it can be seen that obtaining a Voter ID card may not seem like so much of a cumbersome process. The image shown below explains the process of obtaining a Voter ID.

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This shows that the process is simple and requires very minimal work from the Voter’s part. Also, considering our population to be the Urban Youth, requiring the access to a cellphone and internet, doesn’t justify terming the process as “cumbersome”.

2 http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/Print/1048790.aspx

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One can’t take this reason on face value. It could be attributed to a general indifference and/or laziness on behalf of the Voter rather than the process being Cumbersome.

However, in many developed countries, the process is much more efficient. For e.g.

In Denmark, All citizens and residents of Denmark are included in the national register, Det Centrale Personregister. CPR is a Danish nationwide centralized register of personal information; where each person is assigned a personal number of ten digits that include the person's date of birth. The register is used for tax lists, voter lists, and membership in the universal health care system, official record of residence and other purposes. All eligible voters receive a card in the mail before each election, which shows the date, time and local polling place.3

Probably, when & if India can adopt such a system, it can expect better Voter Turnouts.

Interaction with the councillor

He mentioned that, a few weeks before every election, representatives of the election commission visit houses with an updated list of individuals including those who recently turned 18, informing them to make their Voter ID. They give you a requisite form to fill up and along with photocopies of your documents and you will receive your Voter ID card at home.

If the respondent’s answer to Q1. – No.

Q3. Given a situation of you having a Voter ID, Would you cast your Vote on the day of the Elections?

3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_registration#Denmark

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The results show encouraging numbers with a turnout of 89% on the day of the elections if they had a Voter ID card. This is a good response, and should incentive the stakeholders of the Voting process (Election Commission, Political Parties etc.) to empower the Urban Youth by providing them Voter ID cards. Addressing the responses from the previous question of - Why they don’t have a Voter ID card, can solve this. However, it should be carefully judged that these responses may be given to save-face &/or answered to be politically correct. Voting or not will depend on how the person may feel on that day, which is extremely erratic to measure.

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If the respondent’s answer to Q1. – Yes.

Q4. Would you cast your Vote on the day of the Elections?

The result here again shows encouraging numbers with a turnout of 89% on the day of the elections from the sample that already have a Voter ID card. It’s only apt to compare this turnout % with the past data. It must be noted that the % of voter turn out of youth & adult is not available separately. However, if we compare the All India Voter turn out, which is between 56-58%, the response we have obtained seems to contradict it. Even if we assume the result from our survey is for the Urban youth, such a large difference doesn’t seem possible.

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Therefore, this response should not be taken on face value, & may be given to save-face &/or answered to be politically correct. Voting or not will depend on how the person may feel on that day, which is extremely erratic to measure. 4 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2009-‐06-‐03/news/28460398_1_voter-‐turnout-‐poor-‐turnout-‐middle-‐class

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If the respondent’s answer to Q3 or Q4. - No.

Q5. Why would you not Vote on the day of the Elections?

This question is to analyze if they have a Voter ID or are given a situation they do, and still decide not to vote- What’s the reason for this behavior.

“Other” needs to be ignored, as these were invalid responses. As, most of the responses said they would Vote, we have a small size of the sample saying they won’t Vote, hence to make an accurate interpretation of the response from the above graph would not provide the correct picture. However, one can say, due to being located in a different city as compared to the city in which they can vote is one of the strong reasons.

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This section of the analysis deals with the influence Political Events have on the Voter’s choice. The first question apt would be to understanding our sample’s exposure to Political Events. Hence the question asked,

Q6. Have you attended any Event of a Political Party?

The above graph indicates that majority of our sample have not attended Events organized by Political Parties. This cannot be generalized for the entire urban youth as our sample has been primarily from Mumbai. In certain cities like Delhi & other areas in North India we may have obtained different results. Questions below further analyze this behavior with respect to the responses we have received.

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If the respondent’s answer to Q6. – No.

Q7. Why have you not attended any Political Event?

This question investigates the reasons for our sample to not attend Political Events. The responses show that a large section of our sample have not attended because, they are unaware of Political Events.


The councillor believes not all are interested in politics/political events. Parties do organize political events targeting the youth. In K/E Ward, “Andheri Mahotsav” is organized to create a platform for students where they get to interact with industry experts and gather immense knowledge. Promotions for such political events are done through banners, hoardings, pamphlets and most importantly through word of mouth.

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There have been countless Political Events all across the India. However, because most of our responses are from the youth of Mumbai, above are some rallies that have taken place in the City.

Our secondary research hence shows, it’s not the not-conducting-of-rallies that is the reason, but a lack of communication from the Political Parties to the youth of these rallies that results in most of the Youth not attending Political Events. Also, the fact that the Media extensively covers these Political Events/Rallies, which can be viewed from Home without the hassles of going to the location in the middle of a lot of crowd, seems like a better option for the youth. This is also observed in our response, as the second highest responses corresponds to it.

We can observe in our responses that people believe it’ll be ineffective and won’t influence your vote. This can be correlated to the standard format in the manner of which these events are conducted (involving a speech, plans, and a plea for voters to vote for the party).

5 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Politicians_campaing_in_Mumbai_-‐_Flickr_-‐_Al_Jazeera_English.jpg 6 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-‐08-‐21/mumbai/33301827_1_mns-‐activists-‐raj-‐thackeray-‐maharashtra-‐navnirman-‐sena

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Recently, many political parties have understood these responses/perceptions of the youth and have modified their campaign accordingly.

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With the Youth being more technologically advanced and being a part of the ‘Instant’ generation, Political parties, recently, have started connecting with the youth on the platform the Youth prefers i.e. Social Media; & are moving away from the conventional Rallies/Speeches.

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7 http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/narendra-‐modi-‐rock-‐concert-‐in-‐delhi-‐for-‐prime-‐minister-‐post/1/271511.html 8 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-‐12-‐09/india/44988373_1_bogus-‐voters-‐new-‐voters-‐electoral-‐participation

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Q9. What type of Event(s) have you attended?


Q10. Did attending the Political Event(s) influence your vote?

Mean: 2.33

Standard Deviation: 1.23

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These responses are of the Sample who have attended Political events. There are two aspects to this:

• What type of Event they have attended (1st Aspect) • Did attending the event influence their vote (2nd Aspect)

As we can see, the people who have attended are low in number, & hence to analyze this data may not lead to an accurate conclusion.

In general, we can conclude that both the Medium used by the Party to interact – 1st Aspect, and the effectiveness of this medium – 2nd Aspect is not effective. An average of 2.33 on 5 is the impact of Political Events on deciding the Youth’s vote. For the youth to engage and listen to the Political Parties, they must come up with better Mediums & effectiveness of the same to ensure an active engagement.

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Q11. Does the History of a Political Party affect Your Vote?

As per our research we have a neutral response from the sample and so does our analysis.

Lets look at the 1984 riots where approximately 8000 Sikhs were killed out of which around 3000 were from Delhi. Congress was the main master mind behind this movement. Another case we can take is the Gujarat riots, 2002. This was against the minority (Muslims) and it is claimed that Narendra Modi (BJP) was behind this massacre. But when we look at the current scenario Narendra Modi (BJP) has been winning Gujarat elections whereas, Sheila Dixit (Congress) has served a term of 15 years in Delhi. If we look at the current State polls, BJP has won in all 4 states in the name of Narendra Modi. This indicates that people have a very short memory and do not look at the history to a great extent. We can observe that, after serving a term of 15 years, Sheila Dixit lost the seat to Kejriwal (Aam Aadmi Party) & Congress lost majority of seats to BJP in Rajasthan. There could be many reasons like Delhi was awaiting a corrupt free leader or another party who is better than congress. Or we can say that today’s generation is concerned more about the development of the country, observing the way Modi has developed Gujarat. Hence, we can conclude that it is the recent past that matters.


Yes, history definitely matters but recent actions also matter equally.

Today’s youth believes in quick action, quick decision. If you do not take care of current issues that come up recently you will not be able to win a vote. People are more aware of what is happening currently and make their decisions with current activities keeping the past in mind.

Mean: 3.12


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Q12. Considering you like a particular party/leader on the National Scale, would you still vote for their local representative even if the representative were not the ideal choice for your area?

This question helps to understand the Voter’s preference, whether they vote on Macro (Country-related) or Micro (Area- related) factors.

From our findings, it’s evident, by a large margin, that people give higher importance to Micro factors. It is difficult to conform our findings with secondary data, as Congress winning in 2009 elections doesn’t ensure all of its fielded candidates get elected. Hence, examples for each of the factors exist, and an accurate conclusion cannot be drawn.

A limitation to this question is the manner in which it’s framed, & also the assumption of the Voters interaction with a Local Representative and having the knowledge of his actions. On face value it’s evident, people will vote for something that will give them personal benefits, as seen in our findings too.


The amount work done by a candidate matters more than anything to the public. But it is considered important that the party to which your leader belongs to wins the maximum votes, as that is interlinked to your say in the government.

To perform activities for the betterment of the society, one of the major things that you need funds. If your party has not formed a government, you will not have a higher say in policy making which will affect your plans, your funding and then your work for the society.

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Q13. Which Political Ideology do you support?

This question relates to the political ideology preferred by the Sample. A conscious choice of avoiding an option – “Mix of Capitalism & Socialism” is done; as the purpose of this question was to observe what the Sample inclines towards.

From the response, we notice the ideologies that are on each extreme ends of the scale – Capitalism & Communism receive the highest preference and have the same number of responses.

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This truly reflects the diversity of the Country, & how it’s difficult to strike the right balance. Both of these leaders are popular and have an impeccable track record.

It’s difficult to verify the data, and to check which ideology has worked because many Political Parties follow a mixed ideology, for example:

• Under Congress’ rule the FDI Bill has been passed – Capitalist Characteristic • The same party has also passed the Right to Food Law – Populist/Communist

Characteristic

& Each of these is well received by their respective audiences that prefer it (which our research shows are equal in number). However, linking this to the last question where Growth/Development being a key area which can ideally be achieved by Capitalism is slowly taking the trend. This is also proved by the rising Popularity of Narendra Modi who has been Capitalist oriented.

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9 http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/DEL-‐nitish-‐kumar-‐socialism-‐vs-‐narendra-‐modi-‐capitalism-‐a-‐fight-‐within-‐nda-‐4211118-‐NOR.html 10 http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-‐news/allaboutnarendramodi/capitalist-‐hero-‐how-‐modi-‐made-‐reforms-‐work-‐for-‐gujaratis/article1-‐953137.aspx

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Q14. What influences Your Vote more?

The findings of the research show a minimal gap between the above two choices. Analyzing the secondary data, we have observed certain cases to correlate our findings.

1. Raj Thackeray who initially was a part of Shiv Sena quit, and formed his own party - Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Taking many other members along with him, he formed a party, which till some extent was a successful one. We can see this from the results of General elections 2009: Mumbai North.

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From the above results we see that MNS has secured a second position leaving behind the former party Shiv Sena. It proves that Voters in this case have voted for the party where the leader joins after quitting.

2. With excessive rise of scams in the country, the people have lost faith in the government. To cure this prevailing problem of the country, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) wants the approval of the Jan Lokpal Bill.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has a vision to create a corruption-free India. The recent Delhi elections have shown that people believe in AAP’s vision and ideology, and are hence, voting for them even though it’s their debut elections.

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These two stands contradict each other, & leave ambiguity on whether the urban youth votes for the Leader or Ideology of the Party.

To confirm that there’s an ambiguity, we had asked the below Situational question, and as expected, we got an answer that gives no clear indication of their preference.

Q15. Given a Situation where the Political Leader of your preferred party – ‘A’, quits the said party and joins another Political Party – ‘B’, you would?

11 http://www.deccanchronicle.com/131216/news-‐politics/article/modi-‐wave-‐no-‐it’s-‐aap-‐tsunami?page=3

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Q16. Do the Allies/Coalitions of a Political Party/Leader influence Your vote?

The mean of the response shows a Value close to 3. This indicates that this does play a Factor in a person’s preference of a Party, however it may not be a deciding factor. There have been many successful and unsuccessful coalitions. Like, BJP and JMM (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha) had a coalition but it was not successful. Arjun Munda claims that it had a lot of power struggle, lack of co-ordination among coalition partners, etc. There have been successful coalitions also, like UPA where parties like Congress, NCP, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Indian Union Muslim Dal etc. who are in power for almost 10 years. Thus there have been successful and unsuccessful coalitions. These Coalitions are created out of Political necessities. They’ll affect the youth’s perception of the party, however but as seen from the mean of our responses, it’s not a deciding factor; & hence, unless the Party allies with a contradicting ideology, Political Parties dictate coalitions based on Political necessities.


It is more of a need in today’s society. With various different parties/ideologies, it is even difficult for a party to form a coalition. Differences arise among coalition parties

Currently the situation is Delhi is awful, as the congress government knows that conducting a re-election in Delhi will cost crores of rupees, which can be put to some other use. So the Congress is even ready to form a coalition with AAP agreeing to all their terms and conditions.

Mean: 2.93


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Q17. Do You/Your family/Your friends have any associations with your preferred Political Party/Leader?

This question helps in understanding the quality of our sample. Having ‘close associations’ with Political Parties will give us biased responses. However, ‘close’ would be a subjective term, hence it was avoided.

81% of the respondents don’t have political associations, which indicates a good sample, however, it will still be subject to some error.

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Q18. Does Your Internal Environment (i.e. Upbringing/Family values/Peers) influence your decision of whom to vote?


A candidate, who is approachable and ready to help, most influences a person’s decision to vote.

Caste/Creed does matter to some extent but it is most prevalent in rural areas with a more uneducated audience.

Apart from a person’s caste, his area of residence/upbringing matters to a high extent. If a candidate belongs to a particular region, we will end up getting more votes on the basis of favoritism and won’t have much of an impact of cast/creed.

Mean: 2.57


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Q19. Do Media Reports and Debates influence your choice of voting?

Media plays an important role in exposing to the public the truth behind various scams through its reports/ debates.

In 2003, Adarsh Cooperative Housing Society Scam was unearthed by the Indian Express. Over a period of ten years, top politicians, bureaucrats and military officers proceeded to bend several rules and perpetrate various acts of omission and commission in order to have the building constructed and then get themselves allotted flats in this premier property at artificially lowered prices. Then Chief Minister, Ashok Chavan was accused of nepotism when he gave two flats in the Adarsh Housing society in Colaba to some of his close relatives, the society was originally meant for war widows. Chavan was summoned to Delhi where he offered to resign before party chief Sonia Gandhi.12 Here we can see how much a media expose has impacted a party; they asked a Chief Minister to resign, understanding what such a report will have a negative impact on the image of the party. According to the councillor, Media reports have a lot of impact on voters. A tiny bit of rumor can collapse a government.


Media reports have a lot of impact on voters. A tiny bit of rumor can collapse a government.

12 http://mediashame.blogspot.in/2010/11/adarsh-‐scam-‐whose-‐expose-‐is-‐it-‐anyway.html

Mean: 3.43


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Q20. The stands the Political Party/Leader takes on Economic/Social/Environmental issues impact the personal biases you hold of the preferred Party?

The responses give a mean value of 3.4, hence denoting that this does influence the Voting preferences to an extent.

Political Parties also consider this an important factor; a quote from an article best describes how one of India’s major political party controls this factor.

“Rahul is learnt to have asked how the party decides the names of those leaders, who represent Congress on various television channels. After Rahul's interaction was over, Congress general secretary Janardan Dwivedi briefed the new spokespersons about the do's and don'ts during media briefing.”13

13 http://www.firstpost.com/politics/rahul-‐gandhi-‐interacts-‐with-‐new-‐cong-‐spokespersons-‐768535.html

Mean: 3.4


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Q21. Do the Future Promises made during Speeches/mentioned in the Manifesto impact your choice of Party/Leader to vote?

The respondents have given a low influence on the scale with the mean at 2.73. This could be because the Youth gives more importance on the fulfillment of the promises rather than the Promises itself. The anti-Congress wave in the country (as seen by exit poll results) is proof of this, where people believe the Current party has not lived up to its promises.


Future promises made in a parties manifesto have the maximum impact on a person’s decision to vote. At least 75% of the promises should be fulfilled by the party.

It is not very easily possible to do so. Funds available are most important in this case. It requires crores of rupees to complete certain procedures to fulfill a promise, implementation escalates the cost further. You submit an application in the legal cell, make a change in certain laws, and pass through all procedures; all this can take up to 4 years. Within another year elections are conducted again. And certain policies fail in this process.

Mean: 2.73


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Q22. Does the Educational background of a Political Leader influence Your choice of vote?

The above result tells us that the educational background of the leaders does influence the voting behavior. To verify this, we have first analyzed the Educational Background of leaders who have been elected in the past.

Mean: 3.82


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The Educational Background of elected politicians conforms to our findings.

However, having a good educational background may not ensure success of the Leader.

The rising anti-congress wave in the nation is proof to this. And the news clip below perfectly highlights the same.

People will give preference to their leadership skills rather than just their education background. A well-educated leader who fails to prove his leadership qualities will not get re-elected.

Q23. Does the Social background (Religion, Economic Status) of a Political Leader influence your choice of vote?


It first has an impact on the leader himself and then on the people. If a person is well educated/decently brought up, he/she will know what to say/what not to say to convince the voters.

Mean: 2.15


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Q24.

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Hypothesis Testing14

Step 1:

H0 – The proportion obtained for Corruption/Scam free is the same as the proportion for Current activities.

H1 – The proportion obtained for Corruption/Scam free is not the same as the proportion for Current activities.

Step 2:

Level of Significance = 10%; hence Z value = 1.645

14 http://www.statisticslectures.com/topics/ztestproportions/

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Step 3:

Hence for the above p^ is = !" ! !!!"" ! !""

= 0.515

Therefore,

Z = !.!"!!.!!

!.!"!(!!!.!"!) ! !!""!

!!""

= 1.84

This Z value is greater than the defined 1.645. Hence, we accept Alternative Hypothesis.

Similarly, we do another Hypothesis to compare:

H0 – The proportion obtained for Growth/Development of the country is the same as the proportion for Corruption/Scam free.

H1 – The proportion obtained for Growth/Development of the country is not the same as the proportion for Corruption/Scam free.

Following the above steps, we get:

p^ is = !" ! !"!"" ! !""

= 0.76

Z = !.!"!!.!"

!.!"(!!!.!") ! !!""!

!!""

= 0.83

This value is less than our defined Z of 1.645. Hence, the Null Hypothesis is accepted.

Hence from Hypothesis Testing we can conclude, Growth/Development of the Country & Corruption/Scam free are the two most important factors considering 10% Level of Significance.

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Scam- When you do a large amount of work, you might make mistakes, to learn from your mistakes is what will help make the country corruption free.

All parties work towards the unity of all sections of the society.

Growth/Development of the country is very important but the price that we pay for this should not be very high.

We can maintain minimal growth of around 4% without making the economy suffer too much. At the end of the day, a local person doesn’t care about the economy but he cares about how much he can buy with a certain amount of money.

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Conclusion

Our research was set out to gauge the Voting Behavior of the youth. To a large extent, we have been successful in decoding the Youth’s voting behavior.

The stakeholders of the Voting Process need to stand up and take note of this Target Audience if they want to gain an edge over the others & sustain in the future. Though the Youth is impacted & influenced by various factors, they take informed decisions. They’re more open to ideas & thoughts, and are willing to form/change their opinions. Making not just the audience dynamic in thought, but forcing the Political sphere to adopt this dynamism.

The findings from our research truly depict this. However, this dynamism displayed by both the Political sphere & the mindset of the Youth, imply that the data we have collected today, may not hold value on a future date.

Recommendations

After conducting this research we have been able to understand the voting behavior of the urban youth. We have come up with a few recommendations which we feel can help the nation as a whole to have a better-enlightened youth population for selecting the leaders of our country.

• The politicians in India need to shift their attention to the urban youth for gaining support. Their rallies and events do not concentrate on the youth which if done can help them to a large extent.

• The urban youth today can’t be influenced by false promises. They wish to see results, which should replicate the promises made. Thus the political parties need to start giving quality results and work towards the development of the country. People are driven by a vision and not promises made.

• The major reason for the youth not voting is the cumbersome process for making a voting card. We need a speedy and easy process to be implemented and not just made.

• The need of the hour is a corruption free country, which will surely increase the urban youth voters’ turnout. If we want our urban youth to participate fully we need to provide them with a scam free government.

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Bibliography

Web Links:

http://mg.co.za

http://www.hindustantimes.com

http://en.wikipedia.org

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com

http://commons.wikimedia.org

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com

http://indiatoday.intoday.in

http://daily.bhaskar.com

http://www.deccanchronicle.com

http://www.firstpost.com

http://www.statisticslectures.com

http://mediashame.blogspot.in

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APPENDIX

Questionnaire – Urban Youth (Quantitative):

In certain questions, you may feel more than 1 option applying for you. In such cases, please select the most important factor.

1. Age 2. Gender 3. Religion 4. Caste 5. Native State/Place

6. Do you have a Voter’s ID? a. YES b. NO

7. If No – Why don’t you have a Voter’s ID? a. Your Application is in Process b. Under-Age c. Too Lazy to apply/The Process is Cumbersome d. Not interested in Politics e. Don’t have the necessary Documents to apply for a Voter’s ID f. Unaware of the Procedure g. Others:

8. Given the situation you having a Voter’s ID, Would you cast your Vote? a. YES b. NO

9. If No – Why don’t you Vote? a. Too lazy; Don’t want to ruin a Holiday to Vote b. You believe your Vote won’t matter c. You treat Voter’s ID as just an Identification Proof d. No liking towards the Representatives/Parties in your area e. No faith/resentment towards Politics in India f. Others:

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10. Have you attended any Event of a Political Party? a. YES b. NO

11. If No – Why have you not attended any Political Event? a. Too lazy b. Ineffective/You believe the event will not impact your choice c. Not accessible/Location problems d. No faith/resentment towards Politics in India e. Media reports is adequate; physical presence not required f. Others:

12. If Yes – What type of an event have you attended? a. Rallies b. Manifesto Distribution c. Open Discussions d. Meetings e. Festival Celebrations f. Others:

13. Did attending the Political Event influence your Vote? a. YES b. NO

14. Do the Past/Historic actions of a Political Party affect your Vote?

a. YES b. NO – only the Present & Future matter.

15. Which Political Ideology do you support?

a. Anarchism (The belief that the best government is absolutely no government) b. Autocracy (Supreme political power is in the hands of one person whose decision

are unregulated) c. Capitalism (Principle means of production and distribution are in private hands) d. Communism (All means of production are controlled by the state. Each should

work to their capability and receive according to their needs) e. Populism (Ideologies which demand the redistribution of political power and

economic leadership to the 'common people') f. Socialism (principle means of production, distribution and exchange are in

common ownership) g. Others:

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16. Considering you like a particular party/leader on the National Scale, would you still vote for their local representative even if the representative is not the ideal choice for your area?

a. YES – Vote for Local Representative of the preferred Party b. NO – Vote for the Representative who’s best for your Area

17. What influences your Vote more?

a. Beliefs/Ideals of a Political Party b. Leader of a Political Party

18. Do the Allies/Coalitions of a Political Party/Leader influence your vote?

a. YES b. NO

19. Do you/your family/your friends have any associations with your preferred Political

Party/Leader? a. YES b. NO

20. Does your Internal Environment (i.e. Upbringing/Family values/Peers) influence your

decision of whom to vote? a. YES b. NO

21. Media Reports and Debates influence your choice of voting?

a. YES b. NO

22. Given a Situation where the Political Leader of your preferred party – ‘A’, quits the said party and joins another Political Party – ‘B’, you would?

a. Vote for the ‘A’ Party (The Leader’s first party) b. Vote for the party where the Leader Joins after quitting – ‘B’ Party c. Vote for a third-party/Abstain d. Don’t Know

23. The stands the Political Party/Leader take on Economic/Social/Environment issues

impact the personal biases you hold of the preferred Party? a. YES b. NO

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24. Do the Future Promises made during Speeches/mentioned in the Manifesto impact your choice of Party to vote?

a. YES b. NO

25. Does the Education background of a Political Leader influence your choice of vote?

a. YES b. NO

26. Does the Social background (Religion, Economic Status) of a Political Leader influence your choice of vote?

a. YES b. NO

27. Below are mentioned some factors that may have an impact on you choosing whom to vote for. Kindly rate the 3 most important factors that impact your choice of voting.

a. Corruption/Scam free b. Unity of the Country c. Growth/Development of the Country d. Benefits you get from the Party coming into power e. Current Activities of the Party/Leader f. Future Promises of the Party/Leader g. Allies of the Party/Leader h. Political Ideology i. Family/Peer Biases j. Political Events k. Media Reports l. Past History of the Party m. Others:

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Questionnaire – Experts from the Political Sphere (Qualitative):

Q1. We conducted a survey targeting the youth, while trying to start with whether they have a Voters ID, through our responses we found that many people who do not possess a Voter ID and believe that the process is cumbersome. What do you suppose about this situation?

It is a simple process. Also, few weeks before every election, representatives of the election commission visit houses with an updated list of individuals including those who recently turned 18, informing them to make their Voter ID. They give you a requisite form to fill up and along with photocopies of your documents and you will receive your Voter ID card at home.

Q2. We asked questions about attendance in political events and found that most of them are unaware of such events. Are political events targeting the youth conducted?

Not all are interested in politics/political events. Parties do organize political events targeting the youth. In K/E Ward, “Andheri Mahotsav” is organized to create a platform for students where they get to interact with industry experts, gather immense knowledge and promote the party. Promotions for such political events are done through banners, hoardings, pamphlets and most importantly through word of mouth.

Q3. How much does the history of a political party affect a person’s decision to cast a vote? Does recent past matter more than history?

Yes, history definitely matters but recent actions also matter equally.

Congress has a history of fighting for the country, which lead to independence. Earlier, people used to wait for 15-20 days to be able to interact with a political leader, address their issues. It is a different era now. Everyone is closely linked and accessible.

Today’s youth believes in quick action, quick decision. If you do not take care of current issues that come up recently you will not be able to win a vote. People are more aware of what is happening currently and make their decisions with current activities keeping the past in mind.

Q4. Who do you think the youth votes for?

a) Local Representative of a preferred party b) Representative who’s best for their area

The amount work done by a candidate matters more than anything to the public. But it is considered important that the party to which your leader belongs to wins the maximum votes, as that is interlinked to your say in the government.

To perform activities for the betterment of the society, one of the major things that you need is funds. If your party has not formed a government, you will not have a higher say in policy making which will affect your plans, your funding and then your work for the society.

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Q5. What influences a vote more?

a) Beliefs/Ideals of a Political Party b) Leader of a Political Party

Leader slightly matters more than beliefs. Implementing the belief is what is in the hands of the leader.

Q6. AAP is considered to be winning due to their vision of a corruption-free India?

The face of AAP is Kejriwal, who is portrayed as a very honest person who knows the system well. People believe that he can follow his beliefs and live up to expectations and therefore, he is showered with votes.

Q7. Do allies/coalitions affect the votes in favor of a party?

Yes, allies/coalitions do impact.

But it is more of a need in today’s society. With various different parties/ideologies, it is even difficult for a party to form a coalition. Differences arise among coalition parties

Currently the situation is Delhi is awful as the congress government knows that conducting a re-election in Delhi will cost crores of rupees, which can be put to some other use. So the Congress is even ready to form a coalition with AAP agreeing to all their terms and conditions.

Q8. Does the internal environment (caste, creed, upbringing, family values, peers) influences the youths decision to cast a vote?

A candidate, who is approachable and ready to help, most influences a person’s decision to vote.

Caste/Creed does matter to some extent but it is most prevalent in rural areas with a more uneducated audience.

Apart from a person’s caste, his area of residence/upbringing matters to a high extent. If a candidate belongs to a particular region, we will end up getting more votes on the basis of favoritism and won’t have much of an impact of cast/creed.

Q9. Do media reports impact the youths vote?

Media reports have a lot of impact on voters. A tiny bit of rumor can collapse a government.

It is only because of this that congress is losing now.

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Q10. Do personal statements of a Party/Leader on Economic/Social/Environment issues impact the youths vote?

Yes, they do have an impact but do not do a lot of damage. A candidate could lose out on around 5% of his votes not much.

Q11. Do the future promises made during speeches/mentioned in the manifesto impact the youths vote?

Future promises made in a parties manifesto have the maximum impact on a person’s decision to vote. At least 75% of the promises should be fulfilled by a party.

It is not very easily possible to do so. Funds available are most important in this case. It requires crores of rupees to complete certain procedures to fulfill a promise, implementation escalates the cost further. You submit an application in the legal cell, make a change in certain laws, and pass through all procedures; all this can take up to 4 years. Within another year elections are conducted again. And certain policies fail in this process.

Now, AAP has promised to cut down the electricity bill to 50%, make free water available, but there is no way they can fulfill those promises. By making free water available, the government will make an annual loss of 400 crores and with further cutting down the electricity bill they will incur further losses. The law will not allow this to happen on an immediate basis.

Q12. Does the Educational/Social Background of a leader influence the youths vote?

It first has an impact on the leader himself and then on the people. If a person is well educated/decently brought up, he/she will know what to say/what not to say to convince the voters.

Q13. We asked our respondents to pick any three most important factors that impact their vote. The options that received maximum votes are:

a) Corruption/Scam Free b) Unity of the country c) Growth/Development of the country d) Future Promises of the Party/Leader

Scam- When you do a large amount of work, you might make mistakes, to learn from your mistakes is what will help make the country corruption free. All parties work towards the unity of all sections of the society.

Growth/Development of the country is very important but the price that we pay for this should not be very high.

We can maintain minimal growth of around 4% without making the economy suffer too much. At the end of the day, a local person doesn’t care about the economy but he cares about how much he can buy with a certain amount of money.

As we just discussed, future promises should be made with a vision to materialize them.

to understand the voting behavior of the urban youth (india)

Data & Analytics

urban youth

research project

future of politics

ones vote

secondary research

real world

vast diversity

ones real intentions