to gabon or not to gabon a game on geoengineering research and policy by pablo suarez, ph. d
TRANSCRIPT
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To Gabon or Not to Gabon
A Game on Geoengineering Research and Policy
by Pablo Suarez , Ph. D.
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(Caldeira & Wood 2008)
We Sho
uld
EXPECT
CONFU
SION…
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A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable
Info
Audience: Passive Role
?
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Game Time: Snap!
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LET’SPLAY!
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SNAP !
0. Form Duos
1. Create deck of (imaginary) cards
2. Flip cards simultaneously and ‘say’ your card
3. If same card, say ‘Snap!’ ASAP
4.Observe your mind at work
Designed by Paul Z. Jackson(Applied Improv Network)
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Documenting your “Snap!” Cards
Form Trios
Create 3 cards that you’d want to add to deck Up to 3 words per card (‘Cat’, ‘Black Panther’, ‘Southern Right Whale’)
Select one card per table
Most & Least ‘snapped’ cards: Eliminated
Among remaining cards, Top & Bottom ‘snapping’ cards win
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desi
gned
by
Pabl
o
Suarez
&
Janot
Mendl
er
de
Suarez
(Red
Cross
/
Red
Crescent
Cli
mate
Centre)
for
the
Worl
d
Bank
(Offi
ce
of
the
Chi
ef
Econom
ist
for
Sustai
nabl
e
Devel
opment)
Decisions for the DecadeHow to make smart long-term decisions?
?All Partic
ipate!
(...expect confusion...)
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1. Simplification of realityNo challenging the rules!
2. Decisions are individualBut team consultations welcome
3. We will make 4 decades of investment decisions Each round is 10 years
BASIC GAME RULES
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Losers: Most red stones (humanitarian crises)
Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises(if tied: Most beans for prosperity)
Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ Points
… but eliminated if:• Player with most crises is in your Table/Region• Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank
WINNERS & LOSERS
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DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
DECADE DEV CRISIS
1
2
3
4
TOTAL
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DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis by end of decade
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
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Probability Distribution Functionof Precipitation
(based on the Historical Record)
= Drought
= Flood
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DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…
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DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
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DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
Let’s protect against 1 drought…When a drought occurs, use a protection bean…
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
If just 1 drought occurs in the decade……you gain 9 Prosperity Points!
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DEVELOPMENT Investment Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean,
But only if no Crisis
DROUGHT PROTECTION Investment If you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
But, what if we had a second drought?Not enough protection!
…triggers humanitarian crisis …NO prosperity points!
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Decade 2:
Our CLIMATE is CHANGING…
= Drought
= Flood
1
6 7 8
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NEGOTIATINGClimate Engineering Research
By Half-Room, then Sector ( .Edu .Gov .Org )
Your Goal: As much ‘Completed Research’ as possible in 3 minutes
A ‘Completed Research’ is:a special post-it notewith your Sector’s name (“.Edu” “.Gov” “.Org”) written on it with a special pencilplaced on your Team’s tablebefore the deadline
Decade 3:
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Applying Climate Research
3 ‘Top Research’ tables: Select one representative per trioCome to the front to examine climate
projections (bags)
You’ll have ~7 minutes to select representatives, study the research, disseminate knowledge, discuss plans, etc (before investment deadline)
Decade 3 (cont.):
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Deploying Geoengineering?
The Global Climate may continue to change…
Decade 4:
If you have enough Research + Prosperity:
You may be able to deploy Solar Radiation Management
Come to the front to examine models and choices
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NEW MODEL for climate change...The cone can land 3 ways:
Normal
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A Model of the Usual Experience Allegedly Actionable
Info
Audience: Passive Role
?
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A Model of the Gameplay Experience
Info Consequences
Decisions
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Making ‘The Cone of Uncertainty’
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(Caldeira & Wood 2008)
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“Externalities”? Two science-based predictions
1. How will the most vulnerable help make geoengineering decisions?
2. Who will pay for humanitarian work in a geoengineered world?
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1.Active learning (Peer-to-peer, “Aha!” moments UNFCCC)
2.Serious, fun engagement (Emotions matter! RockFound)
3.Data collection on decisions (In real time GEC)
4.Optimization platform (illiteracy no problem)
WWW.CLIMATECENTRE.ORG
Gameplay beats Powerpoint
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with University Students
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with IPCC Lead Authors
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at the White House
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WHY GAMES for Actionable Info:
HUH?AHA!
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Problem /
Context
Risks
Options
Decisions
Actions
Evaluation
Engage Stakeholde
rs
Omenn, 2001
Risk Management Framework
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Concrete experiences (doing)
Observation & Reflection (reviewing)
Formation of abstract concepts (concluding /
learning)
Testing implications
for new situations (planning / trying
out)
The Experiential Learning Cycle
Kolb, 1984
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T H A
N K
Y O U
!
! !
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DEVELOPMENT Investment
Earn 1 Prosperity Point per bean, But only if no Crisis by end of decade
FLOOD PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a flood: lose 1 bean
DROUGHT PROTECTION InvestmentIf you roll a drought: lose 1 bean
DECADE DEV CRISES
1
2
3
4
TOTAL
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Player DEV CRISES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
TOTALPlayer with most Crises
2211 33
5544
66
88
77
99
Winning Trio/Country: Fewest crises(if tied: Most beans for prosperity)
Winning Player/Province: Most ‘Dev’ … but eliminated if:•Player with most crises is in your Table/Region•Your Table is in the bottom half of ‘crises’ rank
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2211 33
5544
66
88
77
99
Management of Regional Aid Pool: First to ask for a disaster-averting bean, gets itUnless:•Majority delegates mgment to ‘Aid’ playeror•‘Standard Operating Procedure’ is agreed
Regional “Aid” PoolInvest in humanitarian system
to help avert crises
DECADE Starting Budget
Crises Averted
1
2
3
4
TOTAL