tipping points and indicators

Tipping Points and Indicators: Engaging Great Lakes Communities to Develop Tipping Point Action Plans

__________________________________________Kara Salazar, Sustainable Communities Extension SpecialistPurdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources

Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant

Miller , B. K., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant Doucette, J. S., Purdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Pijanowski, B. C., Purdue University, Department of Forestry & Natural Resources

Rutherford, E., NOAA‐Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Schomberg, J., University of Minnesota, Duluth, Minnesota Sea Grant

Jaffe, M., University of Illinois @ Chicago, Department of Urban Planning & Policy, IISGTePas , K. S., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant

Decision Support: Land Use Impacts on Natural Resources

(www.tippingpointplanner.org)

Research Project Team• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory –

Rutherford*, Mason• University of Illinois (IISG) – Miller*• Purdue University – Pijanowski*, Doucette, Pekin, Salazar,

Jung, Frederick, Robinson, Kim, Ghadiri• University of Michigan – Wiley, Riseng• Michigan State University – Stevenson, Hyndman, Rose,

Kendal, Martin• University of Minnesota ‐ Duluth – Johnson• University of Windsor – Ciborowski• University of Illinois ‐ Chicago – Jaffe *Principal Investigator

Outreach Project Team• Great Lakes Sea Grant Network Specialists

– Illinois‐Indiana (Salazar, Jaffe, Doucette, TePas)– Michigan (Breederland)– Minnesota (Schomberg)– New York (Penney)– Ohio (Lucente)– Pennsylvania (Rafferty)– Wisconsin (Hart, Noordyk)

Acknowledgements for Funding Directly for Tipping Points Research

Tipping Points • Tipping points help to define zone that we

should not cross

• Forecast models help to determine direction of community and where they might be relative to a tipping point

Tipping Points • Science team identified land use

indicator variables that determine the threshold, or tipping points, that when exceeded impact ecosystems

• Indicators ‐ land use, urban intensity, etc.

• Response variables – aquatic diversity, nearshore zone health, coastal ecosystem health, wetlands, beach health (e coli), fish community structure

Defining User Needs• User needs assessment for professional planners and Extension Specialists

(Kim Robinson, PhD) – Survey (302 respondents, all 8 GL states, Multiple scales: Municipal,

County/Township, Regional)

• Summary of desired elements users want in a DSS1. Visioning tools2. Current conditions of land use and water resources3. Identify and delineate key natural lands4. User identified “what if” models for future land use scenarios5. Impact of land use change on terrestrial and aquatic species6. Impact of land use change on human health and recreation

Program Design• Great Lakes‐wide Extension

program and companion web‐based decision support system (DSS)– Supports facilitated community

visioning discussions and action plan development

• Facilitation led by Sea Grant Specialists, Extension Professionals, Partnering Consultants and Agency Staff• Process incorporates weTables or touch screen monitors to support

participatory decision making

• Primary audiences • Watershed Planning and Land Use Planning

Photo: Texas Sea Grant College Program

Program Design

Users can log in and save their work as projects, which is necessary when you are working with a community for a few days

A set of instructional videos are available outlining each of the main steps with project management tips

Program Design

Presentations by each member of the research team puts to science in terms easy to understand and relevant for decision making (some are augmented with outreach specialist comments)

http://tippingpointplanner.org1. Visioning

Project DescriptionCommunity Characteristics

2. Community OverviewPast Land Use ChangeFuture Land Use ChangeNatural Resource AssetsAreas of Environmental Concern

3. Tipping PointsStream Invertebrate HealthNutrient Sources (MI only)Coastal Wetland Health

4. Land Use Planning ToolsPrime Farmland LocationsOpen Space LocationsRunoff and Water Quality

5. Action Strategies

6. Action Plan

Module 1 ‐ VisioningLinks natural resources management actions to community values

I can walk, bike, or take public transit

Comprehensive plans provide an opportunity for stakeholders to discuss the non‐automotive transportation options valued by the community and determine what needs to happen to make those available.

I can walk, bike, or take public transit

26%

6%

23%14%

10%

21%

0 1 2 3 4 5

Least 0 ‐ 1 ‐ 2 ‐ 3 ‐ 4 ‐ 5 MostImportant Important

Mean = 2.4143

Community Characteristics Summary/Results

Characteristic Value/RankMy community has clean air and water 3.375

The natural beauty around me is protected 3.1268

My house will significantly appreciate in value 3.0694

I can walk, bike, or take public transit 2.4143

I am safe from flooding 2.1831

There is common open space or park near house 1.9275

Outdoor recreation areas are easily accessible 1.7778

I can have a large yard 0.7536

I can live a rural lifestyle 0.7536

I can always find a parking spot quickly 0.6429

Module 2 – Community OverviewHelps communities identify assets and determine threats to sustainability

Past Land Use –Land Cover Statistics

Module 2 – Community Overview StepsFuture Land Use –Growth Projections

Module 2 – Community Overview StepsNatural Resources Assets – Open Space, Water Quality, Prime Farmland

Module 2 – Community Overview StepsExisting Environmental Concerns –Impervious Surfaces, NPDES Sites, Impaired Lakes and Streams

Module 3 – Tipping PointsIdentifies goals and actions of highest priority with tipping points models

Stream Health –Land Use and Invertebrate Health

ATTRIBUTION

University of Michigan

Mike Wiley and Catherine Riseng

Module 3 – Tipping Points StepsNutrient Loads and Sources –Phosphorus Loading / Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Map

ATTRIBUTION

Michigan State University

Jan Stevenson

Module 3 – Tipping Points StepsCoastal Wetland Health –Developed and Agriculture Lands

ATTRIBUTION

Lucinda Johnson

Module 4 – Land Use Planning ToolsIdentifies goals and actions of highest priority with data and mapping tools

Paints Tools –Interactively change land uses and visualize how changes affect runoff

Module 4 – Land Use Planning Tools StepsPrioritize Prime Farmland and Open Space

Module 5 – Action Strategies and PlansProvides a framework for discussing and selecting ordinances, BMPs,

and action strategies consistent with community values

Decision Support: Action Strategy Selection ToolsProvides strengths, weaknesses and examples of strategies under consideration

Module 6 – Action Plan DocumentCustomized PDF documents containing maps,

practices and strategies developed throughout the process into a single document

Timeline• Beta Version – October 2013

• Train the trainer (Sea Grant Specialists) – October 2013

• Training and community programs in Great Lakes states – May –June 2014

• Final changes based on state programs – Summer 2014

• Program development, training, and project expansion –Summer 2014 and Ongoing

State Pilots and TrainingsTrain the Trainer Programs Watershed Programs

• New York• Michigan• Ohio• IL (CMAP)

• MN ‐ Knife River Watershed Group

• WI ‐ Bay Lake Regional Planning Commission

• IN• Fawn River Watershed Group

• City of Hobart –Comprehensive Plan Update

Contactwww.tippingpointplanner.org

Technical Contact__________________

Jarrod Doucette

[email protected]

(765) 494‐3573

IN Program Contact__________________

Kara Salazar

[email protected]

(765) 496‐1070