Download - Tipping points and indicators
![Page 1: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Tipping Points and Indicators: Engaging Great Lakes Communities to Develop Tipping Point Action Plans
__________________________________________Kara Salazar, Sustainable Communities Extension SpecialistPurdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources
Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant
Miller , B. K., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant Doucette, J. S., Purdue University, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Pijanowski, B. C., Purdue University, Department of Forestry & Natural Resources
Rutherford, E., NOAA‐Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Schomberg, J., University of Minnesota, Duluth, Minnesota Sea Grant
Jaffe, M., University of Illinois @ Chicago, Department of Urban Planning & Policy, IISGTePas , K. S., University of Illinois Urbana‐Champaign, Illinois‐Indiana Sea Grant
![Page 2: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Decision Support: Land Use Impacts on Natural Resources
(www.tippingpointplanner.org)
![Page 3: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Research Project Team• Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory –
Rutherford*, Mason• University of Illinois (IISG) – Miller*• Purdue University – Pijanowski*, Doucette, Pekin, Salazar,
Jung, Frederick, Robinson, Kim, Ghadiri• University of Michigan – Wiley, Riseng• Michigan State University – Stevenson, Hyndman, Rose,
Kendal, Martin• University of Minnesota ‐ Duluth – Johnson• University of Windsor – Ciborowski• University of Illinois ‐ Chicago – Jaffe *Principal Investigator
![Page 4: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Outreach Project Team• Great Lakes Sea Grant Network Specialists
– Illinois‐Indiana (Salazar, Jaffe, Doucette, TePas)– Michigan (Breederland)– Minnesota (Schomberg)– New York (Penney)– Ohio (Lucente)– Pennsylvania (Rafferty)– Wisconsin (Hart, Noordyk)
![Page 5: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Acknowledgements for Funding Directly for Tipping Points Research
![Page 6: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Tipping Points • Tipping points help to define zone that we
should not cross
• Forecast models help to determine direction of community and where they might be relative to a tipping point
![Page 7: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Tipping Points • Science team identified land use
indicator variables that determine the threshold, or tipping points, that when exceeded impact ecosystems
• Indicators ‐ land use, urban intensity, etc.
• Response variables – aquatic diversity, nearshore zone health, coastal ecosystem health, wetlands, beach health (e coli), fish community structure
![Page 8: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Defining User Needs• User needs assessment for professional planners and Extension Specialists
(Kim Robinson, PhD) – Survey (302 respondents, all 8 GL states, Multiple scales: Municipal,
County/Township, Regional)
• Summary of desired elements users want in a DSS1. Visioning tools2. Current conditions of land use and water resources3. Identify and delineate key natural lands4. User identified “what if” models for future land use scenarios5. Impact of land use change on terrestrial and aquatic species6. Impact of land use change on human health and recreation
![Page 9: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Program Design• Great Lakes‐wide Extension
program and companion web‐based decision support system (DSS)– Supports facilitated community
visioning discussions and action plan development
• Facilitation led by Sea Grant Specialists, Extension Professionals, Partnering Consultants and Agency Staff• Process incorporates weTables or touch screen monitors to support
participatory decision making
• Primary audiences • Watershed Planning and Land Use Planning
Photo: Texas Sea Grant College Program
![Page 10: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Program Design
Users can log in and save their work as projects, which is necessary when you are working with a community for a few days
A set of instructional videos are available outlining each of the main steps with project management tips
![Page 11: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Program Design
Presentations by each member of the research team puts to science in terms easy to understand and relevant for decision making (some are augmented with outreach specialist comments)
![Page 12: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
http://tippingpointplanner.org1. Visioning
Project DescriptionCommunity Characteristics
2. Community OverviewPast Land Use ChangeFuture Land Use ChangeNatural Resource AssetsAreas of Environmental Concern
3. Tipping PointsStream Invertebrate HealthNutrient Sources (MI only)Coastal Wetland Health
4. Land Use Planning ToolsPrime Farmland LocationsOpen Space LocationsRunoff and Water Quality
5. Action Strategies
6. Action Plan
![Page 13: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Module 1 ‐ VisioningLinks natural resources management actions to community values
![Page 14: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
I can walk, bike, or take public transit
Comprehensive plans provide an opportunity for stakeholders to discuss the non‐automotive transportation options valued by the community and determine what needs to happen to make those available.
![Page 16: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
I can walk, bike, or take public transit
26%
6%
23%14%
10%
21%
0 1 2 3 4 5
Least 0 ‐ 1 ‐ 2 ‐ 3 ‐ 4 ‐ 5 MostImportant Important
Mean = 2.4143
![Page 17: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Community Characteristics Summary/Results
Characteristic Value/RankMy community has clean air and water 3.375
The natural beauty around me is protected 3.1268
My house will significantly appreciate in value 3.0694
I can walk, bike, or take public transit 2.4143
I am safe from flooding 2.1831
There is common open space or park near house 1.9275
Outdoor recreation areas are easily accessible 1.7778
I can have a large yard 0.7536
I can live a rural lifestyle 0.7536
I can always find a parking spot quickly 0.6429
![Page 18: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Module 2 – Community OverviewHelps communities identify assets and determine threats to sustainability
Past Land Use –Land Cover Statistics
![Page 19: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Module 2 – Community Overview StepsFuture Land Use –Growth Projections
![Page 20: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Module 2 – Community Overview StepsNatural Resources Assets – Open Space, Water Quality, Prime Farmland
![Page 21: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Module 2 – Community Overview StepsExisting Environmental Concerns –Impervious Surfaces, NPDES Sites, Impaired Lakes and Streams
![Page 22: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Module 3 – Tipping PointsIdentifies goals and actions of highest priority with tipping points models
Stream Health –Land Use and Invertebrate Health
ATTRIBUTION
University of Michigan
Mike Wiley and Catherine Riseng
![Page 23: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Module 3 – Tipping Points StepsNutrient Loads and Sources –Phosphorus Loading / Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Map
ATTRIBUTION
Michigan State University
Jan Stevenson
![Page 24: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Module 3 – Tipping Points StepsCoastal Wetland Health –Developed and Agriculture Lands
ATTRIBUTION
Lucinda Johnson
![Page 25: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Module 4 – Land Use Planning ToolsIdentifies goals and actions of highest priority with data and mapping tools
Paints Tools –Interactively change land uses and visualize how changes affect runoff
![Page 26: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Module 4 – Land Use Planning Tools StepsPrioritize Prime Farmland and Open Space
![Page 27: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Module 5 – Action Strategies and PlansProvides a framework for discussing and selecting ordinances, BMPs,
and action strategies consistent with community values
![Page 28: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Decision Support: Action Strategy Selection ToolsProvides strengths, weaknesses and examples of strategies under consideration
![Page 29: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Module 6 – Action Plan DocumentCustomized PDF documents containing maps,
practices and strategies developed throughout the process into a single document
![Page 30: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Timeline• Beta Version – October 2013
• Train the trainer (Sea Grant Specialists) – October 2013
• Training and community programs in Great Lakes states – May –June 2014
• Final changes based on state programs – Summer 2014
• Program development, training, and project expansion –Summer 2014 and Ongoing
![Page 31: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
State Pilots and TrainingsTrain the Trainer Programs Watershed Programs
• New York• Michigan• Ohio• IL (CMAP)
• MN ‐ Knife River Watershed Group
• WI ‐ Bay Lake Regional Planning Commission
• IN• Fawn River Watershed Group
• City of Hobart –Comprehensive Plan Update
![Page 32: Tipping points and indicators](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022052909/55999cdf1a28ab730d8b4810/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Contactwww.tippingpointplanner.org
Technical Contact__________________
Jarrod Doucette
(765) 494‐3573
IN Program Contact__________________
Kara Salazar
(765) 496‐1070