timber market survey€¦ · the competitiveness of australian hardwood products. respondents...

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DECEMBER QUARTER 2009 Contents Economic & construction update There are strong indications that recovery from the economic downturn continued over the quarter. Australian economic conditions were better than expected in 2009, with Australia one of the few economies that did not record negative growth over the calendar year (RBA 2010). The basis for the economic recovery in the second half of 2009 can be attributed to low interest rates, government stimulus policy, strong resource exports to Asia, high population growth and a sound financial system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by 1.5 percent over the first three quarters of 2009 in Australia. Considering that the GDP of many other developed countries has been either growing very slowly or not at all, Australia’s GDP result is comparatively strong. In light of the strengthening economy, the RBA increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points in each of the October, November and December board meetings, resulting in an overall increase from 3 percent to 3.75 percent. The RBA decided to keep the cash rate at 3.75 percent at their February 2010 meeting as inflation was seen to be moderating, however in the March meeting, interest rates were again raised by 25 basis points. Despite the positive economic outlook, the strong Australian dollar will continue to impact exporters and domestic manufacturers competing with overseas imports. Westpac Economics predict that the Australian dollar will gain further strength in the second half of 2010, due to continued high resource demand from China and a slow recovering US economy. Household demand is expected to strengthen through 2010 which will sustain economic growth. Export volumes rose solidly over the quarter (RBA 2010), supported by record high resource commodity exports to China. Overall performance in the domestic manufacturing sector stayed relatively stable over the quarter, after improving steadily from early to mid 2009 (AIG/PWC 2010). The domestic wood products and furniture manufacturing sectors were reported to have experienced moderate declines through the quarter and into January 2010. Timber Market Survey 1 About the Timber Market Survey The quarterly Timber Market Survey (TMS) report provides comprehensive information on timber price movements and market trends in Australia. The TMS contains national price indexes for a range of timber products, as well as an update on economic conditions influencing wood product markets and the latest trade data. Price data are collected through quarterly surveys of a representative sample of timber market participants in eastern Australia. All TMS reports contain pricing information for softwood timber, panel and engineered wood products. In addition, the June and December quarter editions include pricing information for hardwood timber products. Key messages Recovery of the housing market is now well underway, with strong growth in national dwelling approvals and commencements. Imports of sawn timber increased in the December quarter 2009, spurred on by the strong Australian dollar and low freight prices. Prices for solid structural softwood timber generally rose in the December quarter 2009, while the price of engineered wood products fell. Prices for kiln dried structural hardwood timber products and flooring products increased in the six months to December 2009. Key messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Economic & construction update . . .1 Import and exports . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 SPECIAL FOCUS: Illegal timber trade . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Softwood price changes – December quarter 2009 . . . . . . . .6 Long term softwood price changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Hardwood price changes – December half year 2009 . . . . . . .8 Long term hardwood price changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

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Page 1: Timber Market Survey€¦ · the competitiveness of Australian hardwood products. Respondents pointed out that this competition is predominantly in the decking timber market, where

DECEMBER QUARTER 2009

Contents

Economic & construction updateThere are strong indications that recovery from the economic downturn continued over the quarter.Australian economic conditions were better than expected in 2009, with Australia one of the feweconomies that did not record negative growth over the calendar year (RBA 2010). The basis forthe economic recovery in the second half of 2009 can be attributed to low interest rates,government stimulus policy, strong resource exports to Asia, high population growth and a soundfinancial system. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to have grown by 1.5 percentover the first three quarters of 2009 in Australia. Considering that the GDP of many otherdeveloped countries has been either growing very slowly or not at all, Australia’s GDP result iscomparatively strong.

In light of the strengthening economy, the RBA increased the official cash rate by 25 basis pointsin each of the October, November and December board meetings, resulting in an overall increasefrom 3 percent to 3.75 percent. The RBA decided to keep the cash rate at 3.75 percent at theirFebruary 2010 meeting as inflation was seen to be moderating, however in the March meeting,interest rates were again raised by 25 basis points.

Despite the positive economic outlook, the strong Australian dollar will continue to impactexporters and domestic manufacturers competing with overseas imports. Westpac Economicspredict that the Australian dollar will gain further strength in the second half of 2010, due tocontinued high resource demand from China and a slow recovering US economy. Householddemand is expected to strengthen through 2010 which will sustain economic growth.

Export volumes rose solidly over the quarter (RBA 2010), supported by record high resourcecommodity exports to China. Overall performance in the domestic manufacturing sector stayedrelatively stable over the quarter, after improving steadily from early to mid 2009 (AIG/PWC 2010).The domestic wood products and furniture manufacturing sectors were reported to haveexperienced moderate declines through the quarter and into January 2010.

Timber Market Survey

1

About the Timber Market SurveyThe quarterly Timber Market Survey (TMS)report provides comprehensive informationon timber price movements and markettrends in Australia. The TMS containsnational price indexes for a range of timberproducts, as well as an update on economicconditions influencing wood product marketsand the latest trade data. Price data arecollected through quarterly surveys of arepresentative sample of timber marketparticipants in eastern Australia. All TMSreports contain pricing information forsoftwood timber, panel and engineered wood products. In addition, the June andDecember quarter editions include pricinginformation for hardwood timber products.

Key messages• Recovery of the housing market is now well underway, with strong growth

in national dwelling approvals and commencements.

• Imports of sawn timber increased in the December quarter 2009,spurred on by the strong Australian dollar and low freight prices.

• Prices for solid structural softwood timber generally rose in the Decemberquarter 2009, while the price of engineered wood products fell.

• Prices for kiln dried structural hardwood timber products and flooringproducts increased in the six months to December 2009.

Key messages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Economic & construction update . . .1

Import and exports . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

SPECIAL FOCUS:Illegal timber trade . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Softwood price changes – December quarter 2009 . . . . . . . .6

Long term softwood price changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

Hardwood price changes– December half year 2009 . . . . . . .8

Long term hardwood price changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

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Economic & construction update continued

Figure 1: Performance of the ASX 200 index and the share price of publicly listedAustralian forest and wood products companies

Source: Trading Room

Australian housing marketReports on the Australian housing sector indicate that a recovery indwelling construction is well underway. Table 1 lists key housing marketindicators for the latest available quarterly period. In the Decemberquarter 2009, finance approvals (for dwelling construction) increased by10.74% on the previous quarter, improving from the September quarter’sgrowth of 8.64%. Growth in housing finance approvals continues despitethe rise in the Official Cash Rate in the last three months of 2009.

Figure 2 shows historic movement of national dwelling approvals andcommencements. There were strong results for national private sectordwelling approvals through the December quarter. The housingconstruction market has been benefiting from the positive effects of theFirst Home Owners Grant and Boost Scheme which continued (albeit in areduced form after 30 September 2009) until 31 December 2009. It willremain to be seen how housing construction activity performs followingthe withdrawal of this program and the effect of rising interest rates.

Housing market indicators Latest data period Movement for period

Finance approvals for December quarter 2009 � 10.74%dwelling construction

Dwelling approvals December quarter 2009 � 13.48%

Dwelling commencements September quarter 2009 � 9.40%

Total spending on September quarter 2009 � 3.74%alterations & additions

Table 1: Summary of dwelling construction indicators

Source: ABSNB: Dwelling approvals and commencements are seasonally adjusted results for the public and privatesectors. Last quarter’s TMS report presented results for the private sector only.

Figure 2: Quarterly national dwelling approvals and commencements

Source: ABSNB: Dwelling approval data is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on a monthly basisand the latest data for December 2009 has been included in the figure.

Figure 1 shows trends in the share prices of a selection of Australianforest and wood products companies against the ASX 200 index. After asteady recovery from March 2009, the ASX 200 levelled off in theDecember quarter through to February 2010. The share prices of forestrycompanies did not follow the upward trend of the ASX 200 over thesecond half of 2009.

Growth in housing finance approvals

continues despite the rise in the

Official Cash Rate...

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Figure 3 shows historical dwelling commencements by states andterritories up to the September quarter 2009. Most states showed anincrease in dwelling commencements in the September quarter.Queensland experienced a 25.1% increase in commencements after anextended period of decline. Victoria continued to account for the largestshare of housing commencements, making up 33% of the national total.New South Wales commencements have stayed behind Victoria andQueensland since March 2006.

In addition to the federal First Home Owners Grant scheme, the NSWgovernment introduced a housing construction stimulus of its own in July2009, for people outside the first home buyer market. The HousingConstruction Acceleration Plan (HCAP) reduces duty payable upon thepurchase of a new home by 50%, with no limit on the number of newhomes a person may purchase (www.osr.nsw.gov.au). HCAP has beenextended from the end of 2009 until 30th June 2010 and its impact onthe NSW housing market will be evaluated later in the year.

Alterations and additionsAfter a 10.5% fall in the June quarter, the national value of alterationsand additions recovered slightly in the September quarter, growing by3.74%. The alterations and additions market is typically a large source ofdemand for hardwood timber in Australia since it concerns homerenovations and upgrades. Apart from Victoria and Tasmania, whichexperienced declines of 2.64% and 4.49% respectively, all other statesand territories either remained relatively stable or increased theirspending on alterations and additions in the September quarter 2009(Figure 4).

DECEMBER QUARTER 2009TIMBER MARKET SURVEY

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Figure 4: Quarterly value of dwelling alterations and additions by state

Source: ABSNB: Value of alterations and additions are seasonally adjusted figures for the public and private sector.

Figure 3: Quarterly total dwelling commencements by state

Source: ABSNB: Dwelling commencements are seasonally adjusted figures for the public and private sectors.

Recovery of the housing market

is now well underway...

Economic & construction update continued

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Figure 5 shows the trend in Australian trade of softwood sawn timber.After a large spike around June 2008, import volume decreased for thesecond half of 2008. Since March 2009, imports have been increasingsteadily, with 6.3% growth reported in the December quarter 2010. Nodata are available from ABARE on export volumes for the second half of2009.

Figure 5: Quarterly Australian trade in softwood sawn timber by volume

Source: Imports: Global Trade Atlas, Exports: ABARE

Figure 7 illustrates the historic trend in Australian imports and exports ofhardwood sawn timber. The volume of hardwood timber imports hasincreased over the past 9 months. This has been driven in part by thestrength of the Australian dollar and relatively low international timberprices following the financial crisis (ITTO 2009).

Figure 6: Quarterly Australian imports of softwood sawn timber by source country

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Figure 7: Quarterly Australian trade in hardwood sawn timber by volume

Source: Imports: Global Trade Atlas, Exports: ABARE

Imports and exports

Figure 6 shows the breakdown of softwood timber imports by sourcecountry. The large increase in imports reported in June 2008 was theresult of a significant increase in timber volume imported from Canadaand central eastern European countries, particularly the Czech Republic,Austria and Germany. The increase in imports around June 2008 washelped by a strong Australian dollar, however the housing downturnfollowing this period meant that imports dropped to a historic low in March2009.

Figure 8: Quarterly Australian imports of hardwood sawn timber by source country

Source: Global Trade Atlas

The majority of the increase in hardwood timber imported since March2009 has been sourced from Malaysia and Indonesia – these twocountries accounted for 92% of the growth in import volume over thisperiod. Figure 8 shows the volume of hardwood sawn timber imported intoAustralia by source country.

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Increases in the volume of timber imported from Malaysia and Indonesiahas meant there is an increasing volume of tropical species such asMerbau (Kwila) available in the Australian timber market. In the DecemberTMS, participants were asked if they thought the increase in Merbau hadany impact on the price of Australian species and products. Of allrespondents, 64% thought that imported Merbau was having an impact onthe competitiveness of Australian hardwood products. Respondentspointed out that this competition is predominantly in the decking timbermarket, where tropical timber competes with spotted gum, ironbark,blackbutt and yellow stringybark timbers.

Figure 9 shows the export volumes of plywood, veneer and laminatedwood from the United States to Australia. Since 2007, there has been asubstantial increase in the volume of US exports of veneer basedproducts into Australia. Industry reports suggest that large volumes oflaminated veneer lumber (LVL) have been purchased by Australianwholesalers at very competitive prices as the weak US housing market iscurrently oversupplied. As a result there has been continued pressure onLVL prices in Australia. LVL also competes with structural hardwoodproducts, particularly F17. Structural hardwood producers have reportedincreased pressure from LVL imports, although F17 prices have generallyremained more stable than softwood engineered wood product prices.

Figure 9: Quarterly US export to Australia of plywood, veneer and laminated woodproducts

Source: Global Trade Atlas

Ocean freightFigure 10 illustrates trends in ocean freight rates through the Baltic DryIndex, a daily index constructed from the price of moving bulk rawmaterials over twenty key shipping routes. Shipping rates increasedconsiderably for five years until May 2008, mostly due to surging demandfor imported raw materials from China and India and a shortage in supplyof ships. A sharp fall in demand for shipping between May and Decemberin 2008 saw rates plummet. As forest and wood product trade in the AsiaPacific region began to strengthen in the second half of 2009, lowshipping rates gave some relief to exporters (Pulpwatch 2010).

Figure 10: International shipping prices – Baltic Dry Index

Source: Pulpwatch

TMS perspective: LVL market trendsIn the December quarter 2009, TMS survey respondents were askedseveral questions about market trends in LVL sales in Australia. Insummary:

• 86% of respondents thought that LVL had the potential to replacestructural hardwood products in the future;

• 77% of respondents stated that demand for LVL is either growingor strongly growing; and

• The reason most commonly cited for the growth in LVL sales wasprice competitiveness (76% of respondents). Other importantfactors were, in order, the structural properties of LVL, productquality, ease of handling and the availability of longer lengths.

Imports and exports continued

The strong Australian dollar is

creating favourable conditions for

timber imports.

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Table 3 shows price movements in green softwood timber products(outdoor products and case grade). Case grade experienced an increasein price this quarter of over 2%. Fencing timber declined this quarter bynearly 4%.

Table 4 shows price changes in wood based panel products. MDF pricescontinued to increase steadily while other panel products have shownmore price volatility. Particleboard and plywood products generally showedprice declines this quarter.

Softwood price changes — December quarter2009Table 2 shows the December quarter price changes for structuralsoftwood timber products. The major structural grades of MGP10 andMGP12 showed price increases this quarter. Treated F7 (H3) showed cleardownward movement for the quarter, deepening the price decline reportedover the 12 months to date.

Product Dimensions 12 months to 3 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

F5+ 140 x 45 x 4.8 � 5.03% � 1.24%

F5+ 240 x 45 x 4.8 � 0.43% � 1.58%

MGP 10 70 x 35 x 4.8 � 0.70% � 3.43%

MGP 10 90 x 35 x 4.8 � 1.97% � 1.09%

MGP 12 70 x 35 x 4.8 � 3.18% � 1.30%

MGP 12 90 x 35 x 4.8 � 0.39% � 2.32%

Treated F7 (H3) 70 x 35 x 4.8 � 5.75% � 3.06%

Treated F7 (H3) 90 x 45 x 4.8 � 4.36% � 2.27%

Table 2: Structural softwood timber – nominal price changes to December quarter 2009

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Product Dimensions 12 months to 3 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Treated decking 90 x 20 � 2.60% � 0.36%

Treated sleepers 200 x 75 x 2.4 – 0.00% � 0.19%

Case grade 90 x 35 � 9.14% � 2.17%

Fencing timber 100 x 12 x 1.8 � 4.85% � 3.93%

Fencing rails 100 x 50 x 5.4 � 0.78% – 0.00%

Table 3: Green softwood sawn timber – nominal price changes to December quarter 2009

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Product Dimensions 12 months to 3 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Plywood C/D Grade 2400 x 1200 x 12 � 4.21% � 1.42%

Plywood C/D Grade 2400 x 1200 x 17 � 1.94% � 1.72%

Particleboard T&G 3600 x 900 x 19 � 0.21% � 0.47%

Particleboard T&G 3600 x 900 x 22 � 0.37% � 0.78%

Particleboard Plain 2400 x 1200 x 16 � 1.57% � 0.34%

Particleboard Plain 2400 x 1200 x 18 � 3.30% � 3.00%

MDF 2400 x 1200 x 16 � 2.14% � 0.61%

MDF 2400 x 1200 x 18 � 2.92% � 0.91%

Table 4: Wood based panel – nominal price changes to December quarter 2009

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Product Dimensions 12 months to 3 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Wood I-joist/I-beam 240 x 47 � 1.91% � 0.28%

Wood I-joist/I-beam 300 x 63 � 4.39% � 0.34%

LVL 200 x 36 � 5.83% � 0.56%

LVL 300 x 45 � 5.48% � 0.77%

Table 5: Engineered wood products – nominal price changes to December quarter 2009

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

SPECIAL FOCUS: Illegal timber tradeIncreasing international attention is being given to the issue of tradein illegally sourced wood products. Many countries are developingregulations and policies that aim to reduce the imports of illegallysourced timber. In Australia, there is no present law or restriction forimporting illegally sourced timber, although voluntary industry codesexist.

Recent policy changes in the United States and the European Unionprovide examples of some of the more interventionist measures thathave been put in place. In the US the Lacey Act was amended in May2008 to effectively ban the import and export of illegally sourced plantmaterial which includes forest and wood products. The EuropeanCommission approved draft legislation in December 2009 intendedto reduce illegal logging. The draft measures include stricter rules oncertification of timber entering the EU and a requirement forcompanies marketing wood products to undertake due diligence onthe legality of their sources

It is estimated that around 10% of Australian timber product importsmay include illegally logged timber (CIE 2010). Australia and NewZealand are taking some initial steps towards potentially banningillegally sourced forest and wood products. The Australian governmentis committed to its election promise to combat illegal logging andrestrict the importation of illegally logged wood products. Thegovernment recently received a report into the issue from the Centrefor International Economics and has consulted with stakeholders. Thegovernment is now determining its preferred approach. In December2009, the New Zealand government introduced a policy thataddresses the issue of illegal logging and associated trade, whichincludes industry support for a voluntary labelling scheme(www.maf.govt.nz).

Table 5 shows the price changes for engineered wood products, which fellslightly again this quarter. The price changes reported for this quartercement a 12 month decline for all engineered wood products surveyedas part of the TMS. The continued price declines are likely to be the resultof the increasing supply of imported engineered wood products, asdiscussed above.

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DECEMBER QUARTER 2009TIMBER MARKET SURVEY

Long term softwood price changes

Figure 11 shows a historic price index of some key softwood timberproducts. This quarter showed a turnaround in prices for key structuralproducts which are rising off a low in the June and September quarters2009. Contrary to this, treated F7 and fencing showed strong pricedeclines this quarter.

Figure 12 shows historic wood panel price indexes. The major trend hasbeen in plywood price where the product has experienced a continuousquarterly price fall since the March quarter 2009. By contrast, MDF priceshave continued to increase steadily, while particleboard prices have heldrelatively stable over 2009.

Figure 11: Historic quarterly nominal price index1 of key softwood timber products

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Figure 12: Historic quarterly nominal price index1 of key wood based panel products

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Figure 13: Historic quarterly nominal price index1 of engineered wood products

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Structural softwood timber prices

increased this quarter in response

to the recovering housing market.

Prices for engineered wood products have experienced a sustaineddecline since June 2008, as illustrated in Figure 13. The product I-joist240 x 47 mm has experienced a more moderate decline than the otherengineered wood products.

71 Price indexes are based on weighted average price changes across New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland using weightings of 50%, 25% and 25% respectively to represent the approximate size of softwood markets in each state. In Figure 11, the indexes for MGP-10, MGP-12 and Treated F7 are calculated using product weightings of 40% for 70 x 35 mm and60% for 90 x 45 mm. In Figures 12 and 13, the indexes are calculated for each product using a simple average across the two product dimensions.

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Product Dimensions 12 months to 6 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Flooring products

Victorian ash – Select grade 100 x 25 � 3.32% � 2.87%

Victorian ash – Standard grade 100 x 25 � 2.75% � 2.50%

Victorian ash – Utility grade 100 x 25 � 0.72% � 2.12%

Tasmanian oak – Select grade 100 x 25 � 4.17% � 3.85%

Tasmanian oak – Standard grade 100 x 25 � 2.31% � 2.07%

Tasmanian oak – Utility grade 100 x 25 � 2.04% � 2.35%

Blackbutt – Select grade 100 x 25 � 6.87% � 5.12%

Blackbutt – Standard grade 100 x 25 � 4.85% � 4.00%

Blackbutt – Utility grade 100 x 25 � 2.84% � 1.89%

Spotted gum – Select grade 100 x 25 � 8.36% � 4.85%

Spotted gum – Standard grade 100 x 25 � 6.91% � 5.52%

Spotted gum – Utility grade 100 x 25 � 3.08% � 1.85%

Cypress 100 x 25 � 2.46% � 1.99%

Joinery products

Victorian ash – Select grade 100 x 50 � 3.20% � 1.38%

Table 7: Hardwood appearance products – nominal price changes to December 20092

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Table 7 outlines price movements for flooring and joinery productssurveyed as part of the TMS. The range of products surveyed all showedupward price movements this half year with select grade flooring productsgenerally showing the strongest price growth.

Table 8 shows the price movements for outdoor hardwood timbers. Priceswere mixed in the December 2009 half year with fence palings and pallettimbers showing strong upward price movements, but landscape sleepersshowing a downward movement.

Product Dimensions 12 months to 6 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Fence palings All dimensions � 6.49% � 6.66%

Landscape sleepers All dimensions � 2.91% � 3.70%

Pallet timbers 100 x 25 � 3.06% � 3.06%

Table 8: Outdoor hardwood products – nominal price changes to December 20092

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Table 6 presents the average price movements of structural hardwoodtimber products for the 6 month period to December 2009. Kiln driedstructural timber F17 and F27 showed clear upward price movements,whereas green structural timber showed mixed results for the half year.

Hardwood price changes – December half year 2009

Product Dimensions 12 months to 6 months to(mm) Dec-09 Dec-09

Kiln dried (KD) structural timber

F17 90 x 45 x 4.8 � 1.54% � 1.32%

F27 90 x 45 x 4.8 � 5.55% � 4.61%

Green timber

F8 100 x 50 x 4.8 � 2.37% � 2.63%

F11 100 x 50 x 4.8 � 3.96% � 2.69%

F14 100 x 50 x 4.8 � 2.31% � 0.20%

Table 6: Structural hardwood timber products – nominal price changes to December 20092

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Hardwood timber prices generally

increased this quarter.

2 The hardwood price changes reported in Tables 6-8 are based on weighted average price changes across New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland using weightings of 40%, 35%and 25% respectively to represent the approximate size of hardwood markets in each state.

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Long term hardwood price changesFigure 14 shows the long term price trend for green and kiln-driedhardwood structural products. Hardwood structural timber did notexperience the same price volatility as many structural softwood productsduring the 2008 housing market downturn.

Figure 14: Historic six monthly nominal price index3 of selected hardwood structuralproducts

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Figure 15: Historic six monthly nominal price index3 of fencing and pallet timberproducts

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Figure 16: Historic six monthly nominal price index of select grade flooring products – New South Wales market

Source: Timber Market Survey December 2009

Figure 15 shows the historic price movements of hardwood fencing andpallet timbers. The two products have shown a similar price movementover time although fence palings have had a higher overall increase inprice. Prices for both products rose significantly in the six month periodto December 2009.

Figure 16 shows the price trend of three major NSW select gradehardwood flooring products. Prices for all three products have shown astrong increasing trend since the late 1990s in nominal terms. The onlyinterruption in this trend occurred between 2004 and 2007 when therewas a modest short term decline in price. Blackbutt and spotted gumcontinued the increasing price trend in the half year to December 2009,however prices for Sydney blue gum were comparatively flat.

3 The price indexes in Figures 14 and 15 are based on weighted average price changes across New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland surveys using weightings of 40%, 35% and 25% respectively to represent the approximate size of hardwood markets in each state.

Hardwood structural timber did not

experience the same price volatility

as many structural softwood

products...

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References

Funding provided by:

The Timber Market Survey (TMS) was prepared with funding from Forest and Wood Products Australia, Forests NSW, Timber Queensland, VicForests, HVP Plantations, Forestry Plantations Queensland,the Department of Environment and Resource Management Queensland, Forestry Tasmania, ForestrySA and the Forest Products Commission Western Australia ('the funding bodies').

URS Australia Pty Ltd (URS) has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession for the use of the funding bodies. It is based on generallyaccepted practices and standards at the time it was prepared. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this report. It is prepared in accordancewith the scope of work and for the purpose outlined in the Agreement for Provision of Consulting Services dated 1 March 2009. The methodology adopted and sources of information used by URSare outlined in this report. URS has made no independent verification of this information beyond the agreed scope of works and URS assumes no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions.No indications were found during our investigations that information contained in this report as provided to URS was false.

This report was prepared between 10 February 2010 and 15 March 2010 and is based on the conditions encountered and information reviewed at the time of preparation. URS disclaims responsibilityfor any changes that may have occurred after this time. This report should be read in full. No responsibility is accepted for use of any part of this report in any other context or for any other purposeor by third parties.

DECEMBER QUARTER 2009TIMBER MARKET SURVEY

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Next quarter...The March quarter 2010 TMS report will be available around the beginning of June 2010. It will include the latest quarterly pricechange data for softwood timber products.

ABARE (2009) Australian Forest and Wood Products Statistics – March & June quarters 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural andResource Economics, Canberra.

ABS (2009) 3101.0 – Australian Demographic Statistics, June 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

ABS (2009) 8750.0 – Dwelling Unit Commencements, Preliminary, September 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

ABS (2009) 8752.0 – Building Activity, Australia. September 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

ABS (2010) 5609.0 – Housing Finance, Australia, December 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

ABS (2010) 8731.0 – Building Approvals, Australia, December 2009. Published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

AIG/PWC (2010) Performance of Manufacturing Index. Monthly report prepared by Pricewaterhouse Coopers for the Australian Industry Group.Available at http://www.aigroup.com.au/economicindicators/pmi

CIE (2010) A Final Report to inform a Regulation Impact Statement for the proposed new policy on illegally logged timber, 29th January 2010.Prepared for the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry by the Centre for International Economics, Canberra and Sydney.

Financial Times (2009) Brussels plans new systems on wood imports, 16th December 2009.http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/810ed2fa-e9ba-11de-9f1f-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

GTIS (2010) Global Trade Atlas. Global Trade Atlas database provided by Global Trade Information Service. Available at:http://www.gtis.com/gta/default.cfm?msg=1

Hawkins Wright (2009) Pulp Watch. Vol 16, No. 7. 4th February 2010. Published by Hawkins Wright.

ITTO (2010) Tropical Timber Market Report. Fortnightly report of the Market Information Service of the International Tropical Timber Organization,Tokyo.

MAF (2010) New Zealand policy to address illegal logging and associated trade, December 2009. http://www.maf.govt.nz/forestry/illegal-logging/index.htm

RBA (2010) Statement on Monetary Policy, 7th February 2010. Published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney.

Sydney Morning Herald (2009) Stop importing illegal timber, US tells Rudd, 15th December 2009. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/stop-importing-illegal-timber-us-tells-rudd-20091214-ksd4.html

Sydney Morning Herald (2010) Crackdown on outlaw timber imports, 12th February 2010. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/crackdown-on-outlaw-timber-imports-20100211-nv7c.html

Timber & Forestry e-news (2010) Issue 112, 15th February 2010.

Trading Room (2010) Online market data provided by Trading Room, a division of Fair fax Digital. Available at:http://tradingroom.com.au/apps/index.ac

Westpac Economics (2010) Westpac Market Insights – Australia, G3 and New Zealand, February 2010. Monthly report produced by WestpacEconomics.