tibor farago, honorary professor at st. istvan university/ former hungarian chief negotiator for...

Faragó,T:Climate sci-pol interface 1

CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE-POLICY INTERFACE AND CHALLENGES

DR. TIBOR FARAGÓEuropean Journalism Centre's Climate Action Conference, Budapest, 23 March 2011

1. Unprecedented ? are there precedents and other processes from which we can learn ?2. Uncertainties ? what we know already with adequate level of certainty to act ? 3. Concern ? why this problem "bothers" even the high-level policymakers ?4. Reparation ? we have interfered with the global env/climate system; how to heal it ?5. Adaptation ? mitigation and/or adaptation ? 6. Responsibility ? common but differentiated responsibility and how to quantify it ?7. Convergence ? international sci and pol developments: convergence or divergence ?


1. UNPRECEDENTED ? are there precedents and other processes from which we can learn ?

many other forms of human interference with Earth's env. Theme of global climate change is very "popular". For many

this hazard seems to be an unprecedented one, a large-scale environm-l problem caused inadvertently by human activities.

There are many other incidences identified by science .. But managed successfully? Good for dealing with c.c.?

various components of global environment rapidly increasing rate of loss of global forest cover; generally: global land use change (agric., urbanization, transport systems) significant rate of loss of global biodiversity

(shrinking habitats, invasive species ..) release of chemicals to environment and

their long-range transmission and impacts over-consumption of finite, non-renewable natural resources

atmosphere long-range transboundary air pollution (SO2, NOx)

and the environmental acidificationproduction and release of ODS (CFC etc.)

and the ozone layer depletion emission of greenhouse gases (CO2 etc.)

and the global climate change process

acidification: emisson-transmission-deposition

„ozone hole”: 1979-1988(UNEP, 2005)


UNPRECEDENTED ?comparison of "perception" of atmo-related pressures

Time period from sci. discovery to pol. agreement:"some" hypothesis sci. linking pol. perception pol.

agreementSO2 ……………………. 1967 Odén: 1972 UNCHE 1979 C-LRTAP

acid-rain & SO2 1977 OECD, EMEPCFC 1971 Crutzen ……. 1974 Molina- 1985 Farman:1985 C-POL

Rowland: CFC ozone-holeCO2 1895 Arrhenius ….. 1938 Callendar 1979 WCC-1 1988, 1990 UNGA

1957 Revelle 1988 Toronto 1992 UNFC-CC Reasons for the very long time period in case of CO2/ghg emissions?

longer time for "enough" sci. certainty, less evident potential adverse consequences, significant and multiple sectoral policy consequences, WW2 and cold war period .. ..

What could be learnt from the precedents? realization of ability for global level interference; listening to science; precautionary approach; understanding of mutual international interdependence (E-W; N-S); modalities of international pol. negotiations BUT: complexity of the problem and the policy conflicts turned to be unprecedented ..


2. UNCERTAINTIES ?what we know already with adequate level of certainty to act ?

Emission, concentration of greenhouse gases: evidence CO2: man-made emissions contribute to incr. concentrations

other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O etc.) Atmospheric Residence/life- Time; Global Warming Potential

ART: CO2 ~100ys CH4_12ys N2O_114ys .. SF6_3200ys! GWP: CO2_1 CH4_25 N2O_298 .. CFC11_4750 SF6_22800

emissions 1970-2004: +70% deforestation ~25% of ghg-em. + lessening C-sink capacities Concentrations from preind (1750) by 2010 (CDIAC):

280 -> 389ppm CO2: +39% CH4: +159% N2O +20% Global climate: causes of recent changes - very likely

complex system: atmo/hydro-/cryo-/lito-/bio-.. past: long-term changes, variability (composition, cl.param-s)

Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age .. since pre-industrial period >0.7 C warming Attribution (IPCC): "Most of the..increase in globally-averaged

temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the .. increase in anthropogenic ghg concentrations"

Obs-ed impacts on reg. climates, env., soc-econ systems ice cover, permafrost, glaciers; circulation; extreme events on natural systems: water cycle, biosphere/vegetation .. on social systems: water management, agriculture etc. ..

climate system and processes

CO2 1958-

CO2: 900-

90010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000260

280300320340360380

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

v)


UNCERTAINTIES ?decision-making under uncertainties and the precautionary approach

Scenarios "if-then": emissions, atm comp., climate, impacts climate system modeling - assessments 1990-2100 (IPCC, 2007)

global aver. surface temp. rise: 1,8 - 4,0C (sea: +18-59 cm)huge spatial differences ..

scaling the levels of hazard - if temp increases 1-2-3-4-5Cimpacts on water, ecosystem, food, coasts, health if 2C< terrestrial biosph. tends toward net C-sourcetendencies for cereal prod. to decrease in low lat-s

Irreversibility change in the state of the system .. impacts: loss of ice sheets on polar land

>> metres of sea-level rise etc. Decision-making under uncertainties

precaution: "take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures"

set thresholds: <2CCO2eq<450 ppm (445-490ppm2.0-2.4C) emissions: peaking by 2015 and red. by at least 50% by 2050 emission red. pathway ..

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

GtCO

2-equ

i

Baseline Emission Reduction Scenario

2C


3. CONCERN ?why this problem "bothers" even the high-level policymakers ?

Sources: sectors/activities of man-made emissions energy production/cons. CO2; transport CO2;

agriculture (plant cultiv. CO2, N2O, animal husb. CH4); manufacturing ind-s CO2; other ind-s HFCs, PFC, SF6

sinks/reservoirs capacities' decreaseforest management, land use (change)

Impacts: sectors/activities influenced by env. change water management, agriculture, forestry, energy

management, health and healthcare; nat.systems these are key sectors of soc-econ development:

significant changes are (would be) required ..= at stake e.g.: global energy or food supply future of the societies; its national and internat'l aspects

Extreme concerns: c.c. enthusiasts and skeptics (+) oversimpl., overlook.uncertainties, exaggeration .. (-) pos.impacts; neglecting the hazard, other reasons ..

share of sectors in glob ghg-emissions

sectors bearing the c.c. impacts

Remainder10%

Agricultural Soils (N2O)5%

Mineral Products (CO2)3%

Enteric Fermentation (CH4)3%

Manufacturing Industries (CO2) 14%

Solid Waste Disposal on Land (CH4)

2% Energy Industries (CO2)27%

Transport (CO2)20%Other Sectors (CO2)

16%


4. REPARATION ?we have interfered with the global env/climate system: how to heal it?

Natural carbon cycle and human interference natural carbon cycle: dyn. equilibrium for quite a long time period man-made CO2 emissions: small compared to nat. sources (3-4%) man-made reduction of CO2 sink capacities: small compared to .. but these were leading to an imbalance, atm. accum. of CO2/ghg-s

Gradual refinement of "todo's" i.e. options: 1972 UNCHE: be mindful of activities in which there is an appre-

ciable risk of effects on climate; monitor long-term global trends in atm. constituents and properties which may cause ..climatic changes

1987 WCED: formulate and agree upon management policies for all environ-ly reactive chemicals released into the atmo. by human activities, particularly those that can influence the radiation balance

1988 Toronto: developed countries' gov-s pledged: vol-ly cut CO2 emissions by 20% by the year 2005

1990 IPCC, WCC2-declaration: developed countries limit emissions ..

1992 UNFCCC: Developed countries: taking the lead in modifying longer-term trends in anthropogenic emissions ..and as 1st step: stabilize emissions by 2000 at 1990 level

Global carbon cycle (IPCC, 2007, Fig. 7.3.)

Toronto, 1988:


REPARATION ?options to stabilize atmospheric ghg concentrations (at a level ..)

reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (all sectors) energy (supply and demand side):

saving, effic. (convert, use),chp,"clean-coal",coal-to-gas .. transport (territ.planning; modal shift, less fuel; fuel eff.),

agriculture, industry etc.reduce CO2 em. by switching to non-fossil fuels for energy:

renewables (?), nuke (?); hydrogen (?) collect CO2 (post comb., from atm.) and dispose or convert

carbon capture and storage (CCS) CO2 to methanol (?)

enhance CO2 sink capacities: save forests (red. em-s from deforestation, degrad., REDD) reforest, afforest .. ; harvested wood products ..

reduce other GHG emissions from sectoral activities: industries (also "ind. gases"), agriculture (CH4, N2O) ..

collect, use CH4 as energy resource agriculture, landfill, coal bed methane ..

broader context and approach: decarbonisation: less C-intensive (low-carbon) development fossil fuels' reserves ("peak oil"); energy supply security

afforestation,re-, red-def

reduce: CO2-emission

convert to methanol

sequestration:capture, storage

em-reduction:save. efficien.

em-reduction:renewables

em-reduction:coal-to-gas

enhance: CO2-removal


5. ADAPTATION ?mitigation and/or adaptation ? - case of natural env variability

Vulnerability & adaptation to natural climatic variability vulnerability of natural systems and human soc-s

to varying env. conditions - to different extent resilience depends on adaptation ability, capacity

(early perception, preparedness, means, flexibility etc.) West-Europe: the Little Ice Age

after a warm period prolonged cold centuries (14)16-19 c-s1-2C below average, large interannual/-seasonal variability

impacts: agric. - shorter veget. seasons; fishing, settlementssome adaptation since limited options .. (changes in plant cultivation, abandoning settlements ..)

Africa: the Sahel belt and the famine of 1970s long-term adaptation to general severe conditions: traditional

cattle pastoralism and migration ~ key to lower vulnerability unusual good conditions 1950s-60s and rapid adaptation: fast

agric. development (maladaptation), pastoralism marginalized abrupt switch to usual dryness from late 1960s: starvation

~200 thousands of people, millions of animals were dead .. Mitigation in case of natural env/clim. variability

only for the human factors exacerbating vulnerability to natural env. variability

Little Ice Age: 14/16-19 centuries, Northern-H, W-Europe (Mann, 2002)

Sahel: annual rainfall, 1900-20071968-74 and recurring dr. periods

1400 1600 18001200


ADAPTATION ?mitigation and/or adaptation ? - case of man-made env. change

Mitigation in case of man-made env/clim. change both for the human factors causing and/or exacerbating the

changes in env. conditions and the vulnerability to the changesLimits in adaptability: extent and rate of the change

Ecosys: Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5ºC

Agric.: Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming

IPCC: Even the most stringent mitigation efforts cannot avoid further impacts of climate change in the next few decades, which makes adaptation essential .. . Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacityof natural, managed and human systems to adapt. (AR4, WGII)

UNFCCC: The ultimate objective is to achieve stabilization of ghg concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change .. and to enable economic dev. to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Cancun Adaptation Framework - 2010 // DCs: 45 NAPAs

EU: adaptation policy(COM: White Paper, 2009)

Addressing c.c. requires two types of response. Firstly, and importantly, we must reduce our ghg emissions and secondly we must take adap-tation action to deal with the unavoidable impacts.

Climate change, Hungarymitigating the hazard. pre-paring for impacts (2003-8)

Objective of the Project: systemization of the scientific results on the c.c. hazard, assessment of its impacts, the science-based national mitigation and adaptation response policy options.

NAPA: Maldives.. to present a coherent frame-__work to c.c. adaptation that enhances the resilience of the natural, human, and social systems and ensures their sustainability in the face of predicted climate hazards


6. RESPONSIBILITY ?- common but differentiated responsibility and how to quantify it ?

Who is responsible: extent, indicator? present emissions (ghg-s + lucf): huge diff-s

*traditional distinction between ICs and DCs*diff-s within groups (ICs: EiTs / DCs: emerg, LDCs)

"accumulative" type problem vstoday's emissions: grad. changing contributions

responsibility at various stages of interference:ultimately, the share in resp. for adverse impacts

responsibility at diff. levels of "emitters":groups of countries, countries, companies, individuals

present-future: intra- & intergenerational equity Historical responsibility

past and future C-based dev and em-s: ICs and DCs accepted in principle (FCCC): largest share of hist.

glob emissions has originated in ICs - should take the lead

At which stage of interference? emissions? +concentrations? +GWP? +temperature? responsibility for adverse global impacts ?

Per capita responsibility: present (and future ?) Carbon-footprint for each individual vs glb=3.8 tCO2 GHGs+lucf 2000 (WRI) tCO2eqL: MY 37 AUS 26 CAN 24

USA 23 RF 14 DE 12 UK 11 HU 7 CN 4 IN 2 vs glb=6.8

1960-2005 US

CN

CN

US

CO2-emissions tCO2/cap, 2002 (UNEP-GRID, 2005)

US 20S-Arabia, AUS 18

CAN 14RF 10

UK, DE 10S-Afr 7.5

CN 2IN 1

Togo 0.5

Malaysia 6

http://images.wri.org/chart_chinachart2.gif


7. CONVERGENCE ?international sci. and pol. developments: convergence or divergence ?

Past: side-by-side sci and pol developments 1988 establ of IPCC - spec mandate, spec. structure

1988 Toronto meeting and UNGA resolution 1990 WCC2; IPCC AR1: "Emissions resulting

from human activities are substantially increasing the atm. concentrations of ghg-s .." 1990 UNGA, 1991 nego-s, 1992 UNFCCC stabilize (ICs)

1997 AR2: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate .."1997 Kyoto Protocol - reduce (ICs)

2001 AR3: "An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system"2001 Marrakech Accords - completing the KP ..

2007 AR4: "Continued ghg emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the glob climate system during the 21st century"2007 Bali Mandate for further nego-s - to agree by 2009 ..

Future? more evidence, policy options but more diff to agree 2010: CO2 389 ppm +39% and other obs, but 2014: AR5 2009-2010 Copenhagen-Cancun > post-2012 agreement?

C.Y.Lam, Hong Kong Observatory 2007 + completed

2010:389

'07 BM

'97 KP '97 AR2

2013?

'14 AR5

COP15: HOPEnhagenand there are

still hopes after Cancun towards next

COPs


THANK YOU

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dr. Tibor Faragó hon. professor, former national focal point for the UNFCCC and the IPCC

[email protected]

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tibor farago, honorary professor at st. istvan university/ former hungarian chief negotiator for...

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