thursday, march 6, 2014 -grain speaker-kurt soupir
DESCRIPTION
Thursday, March 6, 2014 -Grain Speaker-Kurt Soupir. Corn planted acres by county. USDA lowered 2013/14 corn carryout from 1.631 in Jan to 1.481 in Feb billion bushels on 1.456 March 10. Exports were raised 25mb and subsequently carryout was lowered 25mb… - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Thursday, March 6, 2014
-Grain Speaker-Kurt Soupir
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn planted acres by county
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• USDA lowered 2013/14 corn carryout from 1.631 in Jan to 1.481 in Feb billion bushels on 1.456 March 10.
• Exports were raised 25mb and subsequently carryout was lowered 25mb…
• Feed/residual, at 5.3bb, remains nearly 1.0bb larger than a year ago with animal consuming units near last year’s numbers.
• The residual may eventually find its way to the carryout or other demand lines.
• USDA left the 2013/14 US soybean carryout at 145mb. They raised imports, raised exports and left residual unchanged.
• Wheat marketing year carryout was unchanged from last month at 558 mb. Exports were unchanged at 1.175bb.
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Corn Supply and Demand
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Corn Planted Acres
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
80.981.8
78.3
93.6
86.0 86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
95.4
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Harvested Acres
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
72.670.5 72.4
68.8 69.3 70.973.6 75.1
70.6
86.5
78.6 79.5 81.484
87.4 87.7
Mill
ion
Acre
s
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Yield 1998-201319
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*110
120
130
140
150
160
170
134.4 133.8136.9 138.2
129.3
142.2
160.4
148.0149.1
151.1153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
158.8
Bus
hels
per
Acr
e
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Production 1998-201319
98
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
9,7599,431
9,9159,507
8,967
10,089
11,807
11,11410,535
13,074
12,092
13,092
12,447 12,360
10,780
13,925
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Exports 1998-2013
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889
1,592
1,8971,814
2,147 2,125
2,435
1,8591,987
1,835
1,543
732
1,625
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Domestic Use and exports
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*500
2,500
4,500
6,500
8,500
10,500
12,500
7,318 7,577 7,805 7,931 7,8988,335
8,848 9,122 9,086
10,33610,199
11,07911,22010,98510,379
11,700
1,983 1,937 1,941 1,889 1,592 1,897 1,8142,147 2,125 2,435
1,859 1,987 1,835 1,543
732
1,625
Domestic Use
Exports
Mill
ion
Bus
hels
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Corn Ground for Ethanol
02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14*0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
9961167
13231603
2117
3026
3677
4568
5021 5011
46485000
Mill
ion
Bush
els
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21
U.S. corn use projections: Corn-based ethanol
expansion slows
Billion bushels
Feed use
Exports
Ethanol
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Ending Stocks
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,7851,719
1,894
1,596
1,087
958
2,114
1,968
1,303
1,6241,672 1,708
1,128
989
821
1,456
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Carryout vs Average Farm Price
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
1,7851,719
1,894
1,596
1,087
958
2,114
1,968
1,303
1,6241,672 1,708
1,128
989
821
1,456
1.94 1.93 1.83 1.932.32 2.42
2.06 1.98
3.04
4.20 4.06
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.89
4.25-4.75
Carry-Out Avg. Farm Price
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Stocks/Use ratio
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
19.2%18.1%
19.4%
16.3%
11.5%
9.4%
19.8%
17.5%
11.6%12.7%
13.9%13.1%
8.6%7.9% 7.4%
10.9%
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Corn Prod and Ending Stocks
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
605.31 606.72 588.26 599.35 600.99 623
712.27 696.86 711.05
792.44 798.82 819.23 832.49885.99 862.95
998.09
121.93171.5 153.91 129.75 122.25 130.51 103.61 125.11 108.74 129.86 149.07 146.01 128.19 132.76 134 157.3
ProductionEnd. Stox
Mill
ion
tons
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China Corn Production and Imports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
104.3
133.0 128.0
106.0 114.0 121.3 115.8
130.3 139.4
151.6 152.3 165.9 164.0
177.3 192.8
205.6 222.0
0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0.05 1.3 0.098 5.23 2.7 5
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Brazil Corn Production and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
30.1 32.4 31.6
41.5 35.5
47.6
42.8
35.0 41.7
51.0
58.6
51.0 56.1 57.4
73.0
81.0
70.8
0.0 0.0 0.4 6.5
1.9 5.2 4.1
0.7 4.5
10.8 7.8 7.1
11.6 8.4
24.3 25.0 20.0
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
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Argentina Corn Production and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
19.4
13.5
17.2 15.4 14.7 15.5 15.0
20.5
15.8
22.5 22.0
15.5
23.3 25.2
21.0
26.5
24.0
11.7
7.9
12.0 9.7
10.8 11.2 10.9
14.6
9.5
15.3 14.8
10.3
16.5 16.4 17.2 18.5
16.0
Mill
ion
Ton
nes
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybeans planted by county
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November 2014 Soybeans
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Soybean Supply and Demand
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Soybean Production
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1,861
2,0991,9431,938
1,549
1,9241,9261,987
2,190
1,870
2,515
2,174
2,380
2,6892,7412,654
2,7582,891
2,756
2,454
3,1243,0633,188
2,676
2,967
3,3593,329
3,0943,034
3,289
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybean Yield 1984-2012
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
25
30
35
40
45
28.1
34.133.3
33.9
27.0
32.334.1
34.3
37.6
32.6
41.4
35.3
37.6
38.938.9
36.6
38.139.6
38.0
33.9
42.243.042.7
41.7
39.7
44.043.5
41.9
39.8
43.3
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybean-Exports versus Domestic Use
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
847 885 898 851973 1,000
1,063 1,045
885
1,103
947
1,118 1,1611,283
1,501 1,501
1,360 1,320
1,5301,4791,555
1,723 1,742 1,7431,805
1,8711,745
1,641
1,883 1,927 1,9551,893
1,7641,860
1,779 1,796 1,778 1,789
Exports
Domestic Use
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Crush
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1,3701,434
1,595 1,592 1,5791,641
1,7001,615
1,530
1,696 1,7391,806 1,801
1,6621,752
1,6481,703 1,689 1,690
Mill
ion
bush
els
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybean Ending Stocks
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
187
132
205
352
290247
207179
112
256
448
573
206
138 151
215
169141 145
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybeans Stocks/Use Ratio
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
8%
5%
8%
14%
11%
9%
7%6%
4%
9%
16%
19%
7%
5% 4%
7%5%
5% 4.4%
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soybeans-Carryout vs Average Farm Price
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
*
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
332
280294
215
340
187
132
205
352
290
247
207179
112
256
448
573
206
138 151
215
169145
5.74 5.58 5.56
6.4
5.48
6.727.35
6.47
4.934.63 4.54 4.38
5.53
7.34
5.74 5.66
6.43
10.1 9.979.59
11.3
12.5
14.4
12.20-13.70
Carryoutave farm price
mill
ion
bush
els
pric
e
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Beans Production and End Stocks
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
158.02 159.81 159.88175.1
184.87197.31
186.75
215.72 220.54237.54
221.21 211.96
261.08 263.9
239.15
268.27287.69
21.64 26.66 27.02 30.9 32.14 39.72 35.6648.36 53.35 62.69 52.89
42.5860.76 70.11
55.15 60.5573.01
ProductionEnd. Stox
Year
Mill
ion
tons
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
35
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
50
100
150
200
250
Stocks / Use
Total world grain & oilseedsStocks-to-use ratio
1 Oilseeds = soybeans + rapeseed + sunflowers
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Brazil Soy Production and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
32.50 31.3034.20
39.0043.50
52.50 51.00 53.00
57.0059.00
61.00 57.80
69.00
75.30
66.50
82.00
88.5
8.80 8.90 9.3012.30
15.0020.40 19.80 20.14
25.91 23.49 25.3629.99 28.58 29.95
36.3241.90
45.00
Year
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Argentina Soy Production and Exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
18.70 20.00 20.20
27.80 30.00
35.5033.00
39.00 40.50
48.8046.20
32.00
54.50
49.00
40.10
49.30
54.00
3.20 3.20 3.505.50 6.00
8.706.70
9.577.25
9.56
13.84
5.59
13.099.21
7.37 7.74 8.00
Year
Mill
ion
tonn
es
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
South America Soy Production and exports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
51.20 51.30 54.40
66.80 73.50
88.00 84.00
92.00
97.50 107.80 107.20
89.80
123.50 124.30
106.60
131.3
150.6
12.00 12.10 12.80 17.80 21.00
29.10 26.50 29.71 33.16 33.05 39.20
35.58 41.67 39.16
43.69 49.64 57.3
Year
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
China Bean Production and Imports
97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-140.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
14.73 15.15 14.29 15.40 15.41 16.51 15.3917.40 16.35 15.97 14.00 15.54 14.98 15.10 14.48 13.05 12.20
2.94 3.86
10.1113.25
10.39
21.4216.93
25.8028.32
28.73
37.82 41.10
50.34
52.34 59.23 59.87
69.00
Year
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
China Pulls Ahead as Top Market
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Wheat Supply/Demand
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Wheat Production96
-97
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
08-0
9
09-1
0
10-1
1
11-1
2
12-1
3
13-1
4
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
582610
590 586 582 581568
554
629 620594
610
683 684
648
696
655
712
(Million Metric Tons)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
World Wheat Stocks/Use96
-97
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
08-0
9
09-1
0
10-1
1
11-1
2
12-1
3
13-1
4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
25%
29%
31%30% 30%
29%
23%
19%
21%20%
17%17%
22%
27%25% 25%
23% 22.7%
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
48
100
150
200
250
300
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Total world grain & oilseeds
Production
Oilseeds = soybeans + rapeseed+ sunflowers
Index: 1970 = 100
2013 increase was7.8 %
43-year trend is a 1.8 % annual increase
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
China
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Chinese population and land area
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Harvesting another record Chinese corn crop
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U.S.
China
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Point to ponder: China accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s population but only 9% of the land, In Sept 2013 China signed a deal with the Ukraine for 3 million hectares of farm land for a 50 year lease, May, 2013 Chinese meat processor Shuanghui bought Smithfield Foods for $4.7 billion, by the end of the year China will begin digging a 180 mile canal across Nicaragua and has rights to operate and manage it for up to 100 years and today’s announcement that Chinese Cofco bought 51% of grain trader Nidera. The growing wealth in China is prompting an increase in demand for more food. This opens the door to many potential questions about exports/imports as we move further into a world economy.
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Factors that may influence future Ag prices
• Economic growth & world economy• Global consumption & import demand• Weather / world ag production• Stock levels• Exchange rates• Energy & other non ag prices / Ag
production costs• Policy changes by food commodity
exporters & importers
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Chris found these pictures of Brazilian roads.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a
solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Conclusions World production rose sharply in 2013 in
response to high prices and good weather. Stocks have risen.
Expect prices to decline from recent peaks, but to remain historically high• Global economic recovery and renewed growth in
demand for crops, animal products, and energy• Slower productivity growth• Continued low value of the dollar• Much slower growth in global biofuels output
World ag production prospects• In short-run: production can respond to higher
prices – if the weather cooperates. • Over next 10 years, global production growth is
projected to keep pace with population.
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Upcoming USDA reports – 2013/14
• March 31 --- March 1 grain stocks, Prospective planting
• April 9 --- Crop Production• May 9 --- Crop Production• June 11 --- Crop Production• June 30 --- June 1 grain stocks, 2014 acres• July 11 --- Crop Production• August 12 --- Crop Production• Sept 11 --- Crop Production• Sept 30 --- Sept 1 grain stocks, 2014 Annual
small grains summary
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solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
•Questions?
Thursday, March 6, 2014
-Insurance Speaker-Mark Kubesh
Commodity, Crop Insurance, and Livestock Programs
Component Conference ReportDirect Payments, except cotton NoCCP Payments NoACRE NoSURE NoAgriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) Yes Area or Farm levelPrice Loss Coverage (PLC) YesSTAX YesSCO combined with PLC YesMarketing Loans YesLivestock Disaster Programs Yes
1. Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC)
2. Price Loss Coverage (PLC)
3. Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO)
4. Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX) for upland cotton
Safety Net Programs in Farm Bill
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) Guarantee Farm or County RevenueReference price 5 year Olympic avg MYA Price
Benchmark Guarantee 85% X Ref Price X benchmark YieldActual Revenue County Yield X MYA pricePayment per Acre Guarantee - Revenue Produced
Program Selection 1 time Select ARC or PLC + SCO
Max Payment 10% X Guarantee
Updated program yields = 90% of yields for 2008-2012
85% of planted acres (30% of PP); 65% (Farm)
Benchmark Yield
Payment Acres
Payment Limit $125K for Title I programs, ARC, PLC, LDP, MLG, No limit f or SCO
MYA – Market Year Average Price
Price Loss Coverage (PLC)
Guarantee Farm LevelReference price Set by Law ("Target Price")
Guarantee Reference priceActual Price MYA price
Payment Acres 85% of base acresProgram Selection 1 time Select ARC or PLC + SCO
Payment Limit $125K for Title I programs, ARC, PLC, LDP, MLG, No limit f or SCO
(Ref Price - Max (MYAprice, loan rate)) X Reference YieldPayment per Acre
Benchmark Yield Updated program yields = 90% of yields for 2008-2012
Market Year Average Price
3.70 Corn 5.00 Soybean
Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO)
Guarantee County RevenueBenchmark Guarantee 86% X Price X benchmark county yieldActual Revenue County Yield X price
Payment per Acre 86% X Exp County Revenue - CountyRevenue
Payment Acres Planted AcresProgram Selection 1 time Select ARC or PLC + SCOPayment Limit NoneMax Payment Stop Los @ Crop Coverage LevelStart Date 2015
Strike Prices1. Wheat, $5.50 per bushel2. Corn, $3.70 per bushel3. Grain sorghum, $3.95 per bushel4. Soybeans, $8.40 per bushel5. Other oilseeds, $20.15 per hundred weight6. Barley, $4.95 per bushel7. Oats, $2.40 per bushel8. Long grain rice, $14.00 per hundred weight9. Medium grain rice, $14.00 per hundred weight10. Peanuts $535.00 per ton11. Dry peas, $11.00 per hundredweight12. Lentils, $19.97 per hundredweight13. Small chickpeas, $19.04 per hundred weight14. Large chickpeas, $21.54 per hundred weight
FSA Free “Puts”, Price loss coverage payments if price is less than reference price
Strike Prices1. Wheat, $2.94 per bushel2. Corn, $1.95 per bushel3. Grain sorghum, $1.95 per bushel4. Soybeans, $5.00 per bushel5. Other oilseeds, $10.09 per hundredweight 6. Barley, $1.95 per bushel7. Oats, $1.39 per bushel8. Upland cotton, simple average world price, s.t. Min 47 cent; max 52 cents/lb9. Extra long staple cotton, $0.7977 per pound10. Long grain rice, $6.50 per hundred weight11. Medium grain rice, $6.50 per hundred weight12. Dry peas, $5.40 per hundred weight13. Lentils, $11.28 per hundred weight14. Small chickpeas, $7.43 per hundredweight15. Large chickpeas, $11.28 per hundredweight16. Graded wool, $1.15 per pound17. Case of non-graded wool, $0.40 per pound18. Case of mohair, $4.20 per pound19. Honey, $0.69 per pound20. Peanuts, $355 per ton
Nonrecourse Marketing Loan Rates
Insurance CostCorn – Redwood County
Enterprise Unit Quote 175 Actual to 185 Trend Adjusted APH
Insurance CostCorn – Redwood County
75% 80% 85%0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$6.39
$12.97
$25.48
$5.09
$10.32
$20.20
2013 2014
Insurance CostSoybeans – Redwood County
2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014Guarantee-BU/Acre 37.50 37.50 40.00 40.00 42.50 42.50Coverage-$/Acre 482.63 426.00 514.80 454.40 546.98 482.80Net Premium-$/Acre 4.97 3.73 9.40 7.04 18.27 13.45Acres 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00Price Election 12.87 11.36 12.87 11.36 12.87 11.36
75% 80% 85%Enterprise Unit Quote 47 Actual to 50 Trend Adjusted APH
Basic Insurance CostSoybeans – Redwood County
75% 80% 85%0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$6.39
$12.97
$25.48
$5.09
$10.32
$20.20
2013 2014
Questions?