QUARTERLY REPORT THUMB AREA COUNTIES Q1 2015HURON, LAPEER, SANILAC, TUSCOLA

SUMMARY

The thumb area in Michigan is comprised of four individual counties that have a joint Michigan Works! agency, Thumb Works! The counties served by Thumb Works! include Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. These counties are joined by Genesee, Shiawassee, and St. Clair counties to form Prosperity Region 6 in Michigan. Employment averaged 92,878 workers in the thumb area during 2014 with a peak in October 2014 of 94,569. 2014 levels are up 2.1% from those in 2013. The unemployment rate in the area rested at 8.6% on average for 2014, lower than the 2013 average of 10.5%. The drop in unemployment is attributable to job gains as employment has grown and the labor force has remained at steady levels.Q4 2014 postings reached new highs at 1,551 job ads, the highest recorded since online jobs data has been collected by WIN. In Q1 2015, postings dropped to 1,099. For the past two years, postings in this area peaked in Q3 and Q4 2014 and were driven in large part by increases in retail & hospitality and transportation distribution and logistics (TDL) job needs. If trends continue, postings will fall again in Q2 and increase sharply in Q3.

Overall postings fell 29.1% with the drop fueled by declines in retail & hospitality and TDL postings. This drop is likely related to a decline in activity following the holiday and harvest seasons. While postings fell this quarter, looking at the year to year change, postings are up 15% overall and almost double in many clusters.

*This report includes top jobs and postings over time highlights for clusters that have made major shifts ormovements in the past quarter. The data is updated each quarter based on the clusters with the most noteworthy changes. For complete top jobs lists, educational attainment, and wage information, please see the regional reports or contact WIN's Research Director Colby Cesaro at colby.cesaro@win-semich.org.

ANALYSISHeavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers was the top in-demand job in the thumb area during Q1 2015 with 50 job postings. Truck drivers are in high demand across all of the Southeast Michigan, topping the demand charts in nearly every county. Postings for this occupation peaked in Q4 2014 (153 postings in the thumb area) and have dropped since to 50 postings while retaining the top job position. Other top trending jobs in the thumb area are registered nurses (40 postings), physical therapists (33 postings), and retail sales supervisors (also 33 postings).

TOP JOBS Q1 2015

THUMB AREA Q1 2015 DEMAND OVERVIEW

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HIGHLIGHTS

ANALYSIS

ANALYSISNext to retail & hospitality, health care is the highest posting occupational cluster in the thumb area representing 14.3% of online job ads in the region. Postings for health care jobs increased in Q1 2015 to 190 from 17 in Q4 2014. Postings have followed a generally positive trend in this cluster with one major peak in Q3 2013 (240 postings) and several troughs (96 postings in Q2 2014 most recently). During the past two years, Q2 postings dropped in comparison to Q1. Even if postings drop in the coming quarter, employer demand is likely to stay on a generally positive trend for the long-term.

HEALTH CARE POSTINGS OVER TIME

ANALYSISAgriculture postings over timeWhile it is the smallest posting cluster in the thumb area analyzed by WIN, agriculture is an important cluster to watch due to its employment levels in the region (12,759 workers employed and a 9.2% increase in the past decade). Agriculture employers do not often use online job postings, but in many counties the number is growing. It is important to note that in the thumb area, online job ads for agriculture workers has not increased during the time data has been collected starting in 2011. Postings peaked this quarter (and in Q1 2011) at 29 online job ads and have hovered around an average of 15 postings. Postings and employment growth are mismatched at the moment and employers are likely finding workers through other means.

AGRICULTURE POSTINGS OVER TIME

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LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW

ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS

ANALYSISEmployment averaged 92,878 workers in the thumb area during 2014 with a peak in October 2014 of 94,569. 2014 levels are up 2.1% from those in 2013. The number of employed workers did not drop in 2010 as it did in many other part of Michigan. Instead, the thumb area experienced its greatest employment drop in late 2008 and has been recovering since. Employment is on a slow, positive trend upward. The labor force, on the other hand, did not experience a significant drop at a single point in time but instead fell steadily from 2008 through 2012. In 2013 the labor force picked up slightly and has been fluctuating around an average of about 101,000 since that point. The unemployment rate in the area rested at 8.6% on average for 2014, lower than the 2013 average of 10.5%. The drop in unemployment is attributable to job gains as employment has grown and the labor force has remained at steady levels.

EMPLOYMENT & LABOR FORCE

ANALYSISTotal online job postings in the thumb area are on an upward trend with much fluctuation. Q4 2014 postings reached new highs at 1,551 job ads, the highest recorded level since online jobs data has been collected by WIN. In Q1 2015, postings dropped to 1,099. For the past two years, postings in this area peaked in Q3 and Q4 2014 and were driven in large part by increases in retail & hospitality and TDL job needs. If trends continue, postings will fall again in Q2 and increase sharply in Q3.

TOTAL POSTINGS OVER TIME

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POSTING TRENDS BY CLUSTER

ANALYSIS

With one exception, postings dropped In all clusters analyzed by WIN in the thumb area in Q1 2015. Adding seven postings, agriculture was the sole cluster to increase posting levels. Postings overall fell 29.1% with the drop fueled by declines in retail & hospitality and TDL postings. This drop is likely related to a decline in activity following the holiday and harvest seasons.

Despite the overall decline, postings remained high for skilled trades & technicians and engineers & designers. Skilled trades & technicians postings represent 8.4% of online job ads in the area. This grouping constitutes one of the largest shares in the region and the 3rd largest cluster analyzed by WIN. While postings fell this quarter compared to last, they are up 15% since Q1 2014.

The clusters analyzed by WIN in the thumb area represent 61.8% of all online job postings in the region.

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TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER

ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS

ANALYSISCNC machinist postings top the charts with 17 online job ads in Q1 2015. This is up from 14 postings (and 2nd place) in Q4 2014. Next most in-demand, and close behind, are supervisors of production and operating workers with 16 postings. Other top jobs includes production workers (10 postings), milling and planing machinists (10 postings), and welders (6 postings). While the order and number have shifted, the top jobs in this cluster are fairly consistent quarter to quarter.

SKILLED TRADE & TECHNICIAN TOP JOBS

ANALYSISHeavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers is the top job in TDL in the thumbs area along with top overall job in the region. Outpacing the next most in-demand job in TDL by more than 2:1, truck drivers are in very high demand with 50 postings. Positions for laborers and materials movers take the 2nd most in-demand position with 19 postings and bus drivers, industrial tractor operators, and auto/watercraft service attendants tie for 3rd with 3 postings each. TDL is an important cluster in the area and is driven by demand for truck drivers.

TDL TOP JOBS

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ANALYSISDemand for registered nurses in the thumb area is following demand trends in the rest of Southeast Michigan, placing this occupation as the top health care position.. With 40 postings in Q1 2015, demand for registered nurses is up from 30 postings in Q4 2014 even with overall postings for this cluster dropping. The next most in-demand job in the area is physical therapist with 33 postings, up from 10 in Q4 2014.

HEALTH CARE TOP JOBS

ANALYSISRepresenting 25.6% of all job postings in the thumb area, retail & hospitality postings have a strong effect on total posting levels. While retail salespersons is the top job in this cluster in most geographies, the thumb area differs. Customer service representatives is the top posting job with 37 postings, the same number of postings as Q4 2014. Demand for retail salespersons and supervisors of retail workers both stand at 33 postings, down from 79 and 44, respectively, in Q4 2014.

RETAIL & HOSPITALITY TOP JOBS

TOP JOBS BY CLUSTER

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