three lenses on poverty - robert humphries & aaron fallon (tap)
TRANSCRIPT
THREE LENSES ON POVERTY
Jobs, Education, Healthcare
& the Distribution of Opportunity
In the state of Virginia
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
f(x) = − 36.4640681329622 ln(x) + 333.915531055468R² = 0.270402084978799
Median incomes between all localities converged somewhat
during the 1970's
1969 Median Income
Grw
oth
of m
edia
n in
com
e 1
969-
1979 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
f(x) = 0.000217211520346241 x − 18.1391717705904R² = 0.210536868295276
and then diverged again
Median Income 2000
Gro
wth
of
Real
Med
ian
Inco
me
2000
-201
0
Poverty rates in Virginia localities closely correlate over time, and poverty has increased in most.
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.00.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
f(x) = 1.24854555775916 xR² = 0.990350138858458
Area poverty rate in 2011
Area
pov
erty
rate
in 2
003
So where does this leave Roanoke?
• Roanoke’s median income is expressed here in constant 2011 dollars.
1969 CONST 1979 CONST 1989 CONST 2000 CONST 2011 CONST35000
36000
37000
38000
39000
40000
41000
42000
43000
44000
45000
Roanoke's real median income declined during the 70's and again over the past decade.
Poverty is a product. Impoverishment is a process.
The Area’s occupation & job mix is decidedly tilted toward lower average wages
14% average less than $10/hr
20 % average $10.01-$13/hr
12 % average $13.01-$15/hr
54 % average more than
$15.01 + / hr
Average earnings in Roanoke MSA job mix 2012: out of 147,800 jobs ...
12.4% average less than $10/ hr
15% average $10.01-$13 /
hr
13% average $13.01-$15 /
hr
59.6% aver-age more than
$15.01 /hr
Average earnings in Roanoke MSA job mix 2003: out of 136,1910 jobs (in 2012$) ...
Roanoke lags the state in educational attainment.
no diploma12%
diploma26%
Some college/Assoc-iates27%
Bachelor's+35%
Virginia Educational Attainment 2011 persons 25 years and older
no diploma19%
diploma30%
Some collage/Assoc-iates30%
Bachelor's+22%
Roanoke Educational Attainment 2011 persons 25 years and older
The cost of health insurance
$11,194 29%
$27,263 71%
2003: Average Family Health
Insurance Cost of $11,194 is 29%
of Roanoke's Median Income of
$38,458 (2011$) $14,822, 39%
$23,660 61%
2011:Average Family Health
Insurance Cost of $14,822 is 39%
of Roanoke's Median Income of
$38,482
Living Wages?
“The second line on the sample budget leaves room for income from a second job, which many called an admission by the fast food giant that its
workers can't live on its wages alone.” – CNN Money
Education reflects in earnings…
No Diploma Diploma/GED only Some college/Associates Bachelor's Graduate Degree
20,913
27,905
32,060
40,049
51,219
17,221
21,520
33,036
42,325
52,045
Real median earnings have fallen for those with only a diploma or less in Roanoke since 2005 (2011$)
Median Earnings in Roanoke 2005 (2011$) Median Earnings in Roanoke 2011
- 17.6 % de-crease
22.9% decrease
3 %increase
5.7 % in-crease
1.6 % increase
A locality’s incomecorrelates more
NEGATIVELY with the proportion of adults without a high school diploma than it does
POSITIVELY with the proportion of adults with at least a Bachelor’s degree.
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.00
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
f(x) = − 33690.2409696981 ln(x) + 145307.915198113R² = 0.629209951049232
Percent of adults without a high-school diploma 2011
Med
ian
Inco
me
2011
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.00
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
f(x) = 1068.36250084766 x + 25200.7834875794R² = 0.554415099858927
Percent of adults with at least a Bachelor’s degree 2011
med
ian
inco
me
2011
White mobility out of poverty
Rate
African-American mobility out of
poverty rate
High School
Diploma
Bachelor’s Degree
Mobility Rates equalize between races with Bachelor’s Degree
Head Start effect: High-quality early childhood
education improves chances of
on time 3rd Grade achievement and thus
finishing High School
Project Discovery effect: improves
chances of achieving
Bachelor’s
Mobility rate
Child’s adult level
of educationOn-Time
Third Grade achievement
Roanoke’s income structure is polarizing.
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
20
40
60
80
100
120
f(x) = 0.0114095314111185 x² − 0.213934038150558 xR² = 0.993709022488254
Income Polarization in Roanoke 2011 Quinitle Distribution
Proportion of Population by Quintiles
Porp
ortio
n of
Inco
me
Roanoke’s GINI co-efficient is .45
which is 12% above the national aver-
age and the same as Mexico’s
• In Roanoke, the poorest 20% of the population make 3.36% of Roanoke’s total income. The richest five percent accounts for 22.32% of its total residential income.
Position in the Distribution
Average Income
Lowest Quintile
$ 8,641
Second Quintile $24,020Third Quintile $38,641Fourth Quintile $58,834Highest Quintile
$127,222
Top 5 Percent $229,738
Education Defeats Poverty & Promotes Racial Equity
Head Start & Project Discovery help ALL CHILDREN increase their chances of
Escaping Intergenerational Poverty