three decades of Integrated Assessment:the way forward

Jan RotmansJan RotmansEgmond aan Zee, 11-03-2009Egmond aan Zee, 11-03-2009

It would be naive to suppose that the

unsustainability problems humankind is faced

with could be solved with current tools and

methods (models!) that were applied –

or seemed to work - in the past

Rotmans, 2002

SUSTAINABILITY PARADOX

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

Interdisciplinary process of combining

different strands of disciplinary knowledge

to coherently represent complex societal

problems of interest to decision-makers

POLICYANALYSIS

RISK ANALYSIS

TECHNOLOGYASSESSMENT

INTEGRATEDASSESSMENT

RELEVANT RESEARCH FIELDS

HISTORY• Early Seventies Club of Rome

first global computer simulation models linking

population, pollution and resource depletion

• 1980s

IA-models for environmental issues, e.g. acid rain

• 1990s

IA-models for global climate change

• 2000-

IA-models for sustainable development

Agenda setting Strategicalpolicy making

Politicaldecision making

Implementation

IMPORTANCE of INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTim

po

rta

nce

Social and economic processes

Land coverprocesses

Atmospheric & climate processes

Processes of economic and

ecological impacts

Interventions

Pressure

State

Impact

Response

forcingfeedbackhuman interventions

IA MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

METHODS OF INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

• modelsmodels• sscenarioscenarios• uncertainty / risk uncertainty / risk

analysisanalysis

• dialogue methoddialogue method• policy exercisespolicy exercises• mutual learningmutual learning

Analytical methods Participatory methods

natural scientific basis social-scientific basis

EVOLUTION OF IA-TOOLS

fromfrom• supply-driven supply-driven to to demand-driven demand-driven• mono-disciplinary mono-disciplinary to to inter-disciplinary inter-disciplinary• technocratic technocratic toto participatory participatory• objectiveobjective toto subjective subjective• certaintycertainty toto uncertainty uncertainty• predictivepredictive toto explorative explorative

EVOLUTION OF IA-TOOLS

Shackley & Winne (1998)Shackley & Winne (1998)

we used to build we used to build

truth machinestruth machines

but now we buildbut now we build

heuristic toolsheuristic tools

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

Insights from two decades of sustainability assessment:Insights from two decades of sustainability assessment:

• generic tool for integrated assessment is not possiblegeneric tool for integrated assessment is not possible• diversity of tools hinders practical use in policy-settingdiversity of tools hinders practical use in policy-setting• inter (and trans-)disciplinary approach is requiredinter (and trans-)disciplinary approach is required• subjectivity and plurality of sustainability needs to be subjectivity and plurality of sustainability needs to be

incorporated in our toolsincorporated in our tools

• current paradigm underlying integrated assessment current paradigm underlying integrated assessment

has reached its limits has reached its limits

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT

Limits of current paradigm:Limits of current paradigm:

• rational actor paradigmrational actor paradigm

• standard equilibrium approximationstandard equilibrium approximation

• single scale representationsingle scale representation

• market failures rather than system failuresmarket failures rather than system failures

NEW PARADIGM EMERGING

• inter- and transdisciplinaryinter- and transdisciplinary

• complex systems theory as overarching mechanismcomplex systems theory as overarching mechanism

co-evolution, emergence and self-organizationco-evolution, emergence and self-organization

• evolutionary management approachevolutionary management approach

forget about command-and-controlforget about command-and-control

• co-production of knowledgeco-production of knowledge

• learning-by-doing and doing-by-learninglearning-by-doing and doing-by-learning

• system innovation rather than system optimizationsystem innovation rather than system optimization

NEXT GENERATION OF ISA-TOOLS

methodological challengesmethodological challenges

• uncertaintyuncertainty• social-cultural dimensionsocial-cultural dimension• multiple scalingmultiple scaling• stakeholder representationstakeholder representation• discontinuities and surprisesdiscontinuities and surprises• transition dynamicstransition dynamics

MULTIPLE SCALING

Various modelling approaches to multiple scaling

1. Grid-based modelssystem dynamics type of models

2. Cellular Automata modelsintelligent cell communication models

3. Multiple scale modelsland allocation regression models

Integrated

Dynamic

Model

Cellular Automata Modelling

• dynamics is more determined by macroscopic trends dynamics is more determined by macroscopic trends than by microscale dynamicsthan by microscale dynamics

• rules for determining the suitability are controversialrules for determining the suitability are controversial

• rules behind 'clustering mechanism' are not well knownrules behind 'clustering mechanism' are not well known

• reliability of CA models on macro-scale seems low, reliability of CA models on macro-scale seems low, just as reliability on the long time scale just as reliability on the long time scale

Grid-Based IA Modelling

• social, demographic, economic and technological driving forces are not represented at the grid level

• states and impacts changes are represented at the grid level (e.g. 0.5 x 0.5)

• no dynamic interactions among the grid cells

• grid cell output suggests more precision than can be fulfilled

Multiple-scale Modelling

• relatively coarse scale on which land use trends are relatively coarse scale on which land use trends are calculated and the land use driving mechanisms that calculated and the land use driving mechanisms that act over longer distanceact over longer distance

• relatively fine scale on which the local land use patterns relatively fine scale on which the local land use patterns are calculated, taking local constraints into accountare calculated, taking local constraints into account

• the dynamics of changing land use is based on the dynamics of changing land use is based on correlations and not on causal mechanismscorrelations and not on causal mechanisms

• quasi-static method which is more directed towards the quasi-static method which is more directed towards the spatial than the temporal componentspatial than the temporal component

Recommendation

Why not try combinations of system dynamics,Why not try combinations of system dynamics,

cellular automata and multiple scale models?cellular automata and multiple scale models?

Source: refers to the origin of uncertainty

Type: how uncertainty manifests itself in a particular context

UNCERTAINTY

TYPOLOGY OF UNCERTAINTIES

Societal randomness

inexactness

lack of observations/ measurements

practically immeasurable

ignorance

indeterminacy

Uncertaintydue to lack of

knowledge

Natural randomness

Value diversity

Behavioural variability Uncertainty

due to variability conflicting

evidence

unreliability

structural uncertainty

Technological surprise

SOURCES AND TYPES OF UNCERTAINTY IN IA-MODELING

Uncertainty due to variability

inexactness

uncertainequations

model structureuncertainties

uncertainties

parameter

in input data

uncertainties

Uncertainty inmodel quantities

((technical uncertainties)

uncertain levelsof confidence

uncertainty aboutmodel validity

Uncertainty aboutmodel form

(methodological uncertainties)

Uncertainty about model completeness

(epistemological uncertainties)

lack ofobservations/measurements

practicallyimmeasurable

ignorance

indeterminacy

conflictingevidence

RECOMMENDATION

Build in pluralism inBuild in pluralism intoto models models

• uncertainties can be estimated according to different uncertainties can be estimated according to different perspectivesperspectives

• perspective-based model routesperspective-based model routes

• integration of participatory processes and modelling integration of participatory processes and modelling approachesapproaches

AGENT REPRESENTATION two schools of agent representation:two schools of agent representation:

• emergent behaviouremergent behaviour

behaviour of agents ‘emerges’ primarily through behaviour of agents ‘emerges’ primarily through interaction with other agents [genetic algorithms]interaction with other agents [genetic algorithms]

• rational behaviourrational behaviour

prescribed rules for agents behaviour according to prescribed rules for agents behaviour according to

rational decision rules [neo-classical economics]rational decision rules [neo-classical economics]

SCALE REPRESENTATION OF AGENTS

Macro level (landscape)(trans-)national

authorities

Meso level (regimes)institutions/organisations

Micro level (niches)

individual agents

RECOMMENDATION

• combination of emergent behaviour & rational behaviourcombination of emergent behaviour & rational behaviour

deliberative behaviourdeliberative behaviour

• different modes of behaviour under different different modes of behaviour under different circumstancescircumstances

• automat: decision agent with a cognitive cell, linked to a automat: decision agent with a cognitive cell, linked to a memory cell, and external stimulimemory cell, and external stimuli

AGENT MODEL

Repetition

Deliberation Imitation

Social comparison

Cognitive processing

Mental map

Abilities-time

-money-age

-children

Uncertainty

Decision

Personality

Locus of control threshold

time | source | dest. | loc. | p | # visitors | conflict

Location

Peers

Peers

Intermediaries

Media

Experience

Intermediaries

Transition dynamics

• macro-meso-micro level dynamicsmacro-meso-micro level dynamics

• four different stages of transitionfour different stages of transition

• co-evolution, emergence and self-organisationco-evolution, emergence and self-organisation

• niche- and regime playersniche- and regime players

• transformative changetransformative change

Transition Model

• agent basedagent based

• market and physical infrastructure representationmarket and physical infrastructure representation

• regime, niche and empowered niche as agentsregime, niche and empowered niche as agents

regime = ICEregime = ICE

nichesniches = hybrid cars, biofuels, hydrogen cars= hybrid cars, biofuels, hydrogen cars

empowered niche = public transportempowered niche = public transport

• key concept is key concept is supportsupport for agents from consumers for agents from consumers

• landscape developments and lifestyle changes landscape developments and lifestyle changes

Fossil Fuel Signal

Ecological Signal

Economic Signal

Physical Infrastructure Signal

I

II

III

IV

Initial results

Integrated Sustainability Assessment

‘‘MATISSE’ MATISSE’ definitiondefinition

ISA is a cyclical, participatory process of ISA is a cyclical, participatory process of scopingscoping, , envisioningenvisioning,,

experimentingexperimenting and and learninglearning through which a shared interpretation through which a shared interpretation

of sustainability for a specific context is developed and appliedof sustainability for a specific context is developed and applied

in an integrated manner in order to explore solutions to persistentin an integrated manner in order to explore solutions to persistent

problems of unsustainable developmentproblems of unsustainable development

ISA conceptual framework

Envisioning stage

[sustainability vision with pathways]

Scoping stage [shared interpretation of what sustainability means]

Experimental stage[testing visions, pathways

and policy options]

Learning and

evaluating stage

[learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning]

CONCLUSIONS

• we need a new paradigm for assessing sustainable we need a new paradigm for assessing sustainable development: a transformative paradigmdevelopment: a transformative paradigm

• we need to invest more effort in improving the we need to invest more effort in improving the methodological basis of our IA-toolsmethodological basis of our IA-tools

scaling / agent representation / uncertaintyscaling / agent representation / uncertainty

• we need to invest substantially more in ISA-tools:we need to invest substantially more in ISA-tools:innovative, integrated and interactive [ triple-I ]innovative, integrated and interactive [ triple-I ]