0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08

Bea

rish

Sent

imen

t and

JSC

O P

ain

Inde

x

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

S&P

6 m

o. fw

s pe

rfor

man

ce

AAII Bearish Sentiment Bearish Sentiment + 2 StdDevCurrent Bearish level in relation to period reviewed Normal BearishJSCO Pain Index (S&P weekly data) JSCO Pain Index 8 wk AvgS&P 6 months forward performance

Maximum bearish sentiment in 21 years

In 2002, 2004, and 2005, bearish sentiment was nearly as high as it was in March 2009; 6 months later (as indicated by the black dots), share prices rose higher.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8

Aug

-08

Sep

-08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Dec

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr

-09

May

-09

Jun-

09

Jul-0

9

JSC

O P

ain

Inde

x

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

DJI

A

t JSCO Pain Index µ Pain Index of VIX VIX rescaled DJIA

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

170%

190%

210%

Dec

-05

Dec

-06

Dec

-07

Dec

-08

JSC

O P

ain

Inde

x

$5

$11

$18

$24

$31

$37

$44

$50

$57

$63

$70

$76

$83

$89

VIX

JSCO Pain Index using VIX µ Pain Index 10 d ma VIX