threadneedle dynamic real return fund retirement … · 31.08.2017 · threadneedle dynamic real...
TRANSCRIPT
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund
Retirement Advantage – The Drawdown Strategies Conference
For professional investors only
October - November 2017
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
All content in this presentation is the copyright of Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
Although the content is freely available, it is not in the public domain. This presentation may
not be reproduced, copied or published in any form, in print or electronically, in whole or in
part, or passed on to any third party, without the express written permission of Columbia
Threadneedle Investments.
Learning objectives
Understand the investment approach adopted by
Columbia Threadneedle Investments from a Multi Asset
perspective1
Learn more about Columbia Threadneedle
Investments’ views on the key factors to consider in
post-retirement solutions2
Gain an insight into the investment process, current
positioning and performance of the Dynamic Real
Return Fund 3
2
Columbia Threadneedle InvestmentsAsset allocation is central to our business
4
All data is for the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies as at 30 June 2017.
1 AUM includes externally managed funds under administration as well as all assets managed on a discretionary or non-discretionary basis by the entities in the Columbia and Threadneedle group of
companies.
An established global asset management
group
AUM of £364.1 billion
Offices in 19 countries
Over 450 investment professionals and over
2,000 people
Focus is active management of client assets
£106.1 billion AUM in asset allocation
strategies
Offers a broad spectrum of capabilities
Equities
Fixed Income
Alternatives
Asset Allocation
Investment Solutions
Part of Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
Assets under management1
Asset allocation
strategies
29.2%
Other
70.8%
AUM – institutional vs. wholesale
Wholesale59%
Institutional41%
Equities53%
Fixed Income
39%
Alternatives8%
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Client considerations post- retirement
6
Longevity InflationRisk /
volatility
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Longevity
7
Source: https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/retirement-income-options/income-drawdown#health-and-longevity ; ONS Data, 2014.
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Impact of Inflation over time
8
1985 2017 % change
£0.26 250%
1st class
stamp
Pint of milk
Mars bar
Loaf of bread
£0.17 £0.65 382%
£0.23 £0.43 187%
£0.65
£0.40 £1.00 250%
Source: pensionsworld.co.uk “40 years of UK price rises – the devastating effect of inflation”, 13 October 2014
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
In accumulation the sequence of returns does not
matter…
9
Annual
returns
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
£
Year
£100,000 invested – IA UK Equity Income
2007-1990 1990-2007
£427,313
… the investor ends up at the same place at the end of
the period
This is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
In decumulation the sequence of returns matters…
10
Annual
returns
£108,455
£57,419
For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, UK Stocks is FTSE 100 and Multi Asset portfolio is mix of 45% MSCI World, 45% Barclays Global and 10% UK
property. Source Bloomberg 31 August 2017
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
… as does diversification
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16
Po
t siz
e
£100,000 invested, taking 5% withdrawal each year Capital Return – FTSE 100 and Multi Asset Portfolio
Multi Asset UK Stocks
Our solution to these considerations
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 30 June 2017. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Where references are made to portfolio guidelines and features, these may be
subject to change over time and prevailing market conditions. Actual investment parameters will be agreed and set out in the prospectus or formal investment management agreement. Please note
that the performance target may not be attained.
13
Differentiating features Portfolio characteristics
StrategyThreadneedle Dynamic Real
Return
Performance targetUK CPI+4% (gross of fees) over 3-5
year investment horizon
Asset class weightings
Equities 0-75%; bonds & cash 0-
100%; property 0-20%; commodities
0-20%; alternatives 0-10%
Holdings
Portfolio is invested in direct
investments, derivatives, beta
strategies and in-house
Threadneedle funds
Targeting UK CPI+4% in line with long-
run real return of equities
Aiming for equity-like returns with up to
two-thirds volatility
A volatility-controlled strategy
Real returns
and lower
volatility
Long-only, unleveraged, risk-controlled,
index-unconstrained
Dynamically managed asset allocation;
there is no ‘neutral’
Uses direct holdings, derivatives, beta
strategies, and in-house funds
Dynamic &
unconstrained
Drawing on the expertise of our entire
investment platform
Full look-through to all positions better
enables portfolio construction
No double charging on internal funds
Effective
governance
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Investment philosophy
We believe that we can deliver strong
risk-adjusted returns for our clients through:
An active approach that takes advantage
of market inefficiencies
Our global perspective advantage – the
combination of macro and micro insights
The appropriate allocation of risk
14
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Investment process overviewA collaborative and risk-oriented approach
15
Identify investment regime
Identify asset preference
Identify our key differentiators
to the consensus
Set current risk tolerance levels
Asset allocation Strategy Group
Attribute and size risk budget
according to value conviction
Implement via internal funds,
direct holdings, and passive
strategies
Full look-through bottom-up
risk analysis ex post
Portfolio management
Economic Research Group –
what is going to happen?
Sector & Thematic
Research Group –
create investment themes
Valuation Research Group –
what is in the price?
Firm-wide research
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Asset allocation team
16
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments investment professionals as at 31 August 2017.
Portfolio
management
Toby Nangle
Lead Portfolio
Manager
Maya Bhandari
Deputy Portfolio
Manager
Valuation
Research Group
Seven Investment
Professionals across
all asset classes
Jeff Knight
Global Co-Head
of Asset
Allocation
Alex Lyle
Head of Managed
Funds, EMEA
William Davies
Global Head of
Equities
Mark Burgess
Chief Investment
Officer, EMEA &
Global Head of Equities
Toby Nangle
Global Co-Head
of Asset
Allocation
Maya Bhandari
Portfolio
Manager
Alex Lyle
Head of
Managed Funds
Maya Bhandari
Portfolio Manager
Craig Nowrie
Client Portfolio
Manager
Rajeev Kapur
Asset Allocation
Manager
Jeff Knight
Global Head of
Investment Solutions,
Co-Head of Global
Asset Allocation
Bill Landes
Deputy Head of
Investment
Solutions
Anwiti Bahuguna
Senior Portfolio
Manager
Fred Copper
Senior Portfolio
Manager
Josh Kutin
Senior Portfolio
Manager
Brian Virginia
Portfolio Manager
Dan Boncarosky
Portfolio Manager
Maria Garrahan
Research
Analyst
Vincent Poon
Research
Analyst
Marc
Khalamayzer
Portfolio Manager
Andrew Gruet
Research
Analyst
Corey Lorenzen
Quantitative
Analyst
Drew Gleckler
Quantitative
Analyst
Toby Nangle
Head of Multi-Asset
Allocation,
Co-Head of Global
Asset Allocation
Ben Rodriguez
Multi Asset
Analyst
Alex Wilkinson
Portfolio Manager
Martin
Truszkowski
Manager Research
Adam Scully-Power
Client Portfolio Manager
Benjamin Simonds
Client Portfolio Manager
Robert Webb
Asset Allocation
Analyst
Matthew Rees
Portfolio Manager
Adrian Hilton
Head of Interest
Rates & Currency
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
100% Short Dated Govt Bonds 75% Equity
DRR
4.2% 5.5% 6.8% 8.1% 9.3% 10.6%
Ex Ante Portfolio Volatility - 10yr Monthly
How is risk being rewarded?Focusing on risk adjusted returns
17
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Asset Allocation Matrix as at 31 August 2017.
In an environment where we Strongly Favour “risk” we will be investing in assets that have greater
volatility with the expectation that volatility will be rewarded
In an environment where we Strongly Dislike “risk” we will be investing in assets that aim to protect
investor’s capital and are less volatile, as we believe volatility will not be well rewarded
Protect Participate
Strongly Dislike Dislike Neutral Favour Strongly Favour
Current risk
appetiteX
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%Portfolio 2/3rds Equity
Process in actionDynamically managing the allocation to suit market
opportunities
18
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments as at 31 August 2017. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Based on 180 weeks of equally weighted weekly data.
Risk Allocation
Pro
tec
tP
art
icip
ate
Ris
k
What
2014 - Concerned risk was not being rewarded so increased protection assets; re-orientated equity allocation and reinitiated a position in Euro High Yield
2015 – Chinese currency devaluation in August, reduced Indian equity allocation in favour of Japanese equities and reduced Australian government bond position in favour of Mexican government bonds
2016 – Increased risk through increasing participate assets; Euro High Yield from c. 10% to c. 15% and increased equities from 29% to 33%
Brexit
China
Currency
Devaluation
Fears of
global
recession
Brexit
Process in action - BrexitDynamically managing the allocation to suit market
opportunities
19
What
Reduced risk on run up to election on 23 June 2016
Before 23 June
Reduced
– UK equity small cap exposure
– European ex UK equities allocation by hedging some of the physical exposure with a EuroStoxx 50 hedge up to c.4% (which is more financials orientated compared to underlying fund)
– Japanese equities and removed currency hedge
– European High Yield exposure
Post 23 June
Exited
– UK equity small cap exposure
– EuroStoxx 50 hedge on 24th June
– UK Property
Reduced physical European ex UK equity exposure
Un-hedged part of Mexican government bond exposure
Increased
– UK short dated corporate bonds
– UK large cap equities
Hedged some of UK equity exposure into US dollars
Why
AAS moved Current Risk Appetite from Neutral to Dislike
Initial asymmetry of trade
UK breakup from the EU and implications
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Bloomberg, as at 30 June 2016. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
-20.0% -10.0% - 10.0% 20.0%
FTSE100
FTSE250
S&P500
EuroStoxx50
Topix
Leave
Remain
Forecasted impact of Remain or Leave in
GBP terms
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Asset allocation strategy view – August 2017Risk adjusted menu of ideas
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments as at 31 August 2017.
Strongly Dislike Dislike Neutral Favour Strongly Favour
Asset AllocationGovernment
I/L
Cash
Credit
Commodity
Equity
Property
Equity Region USUK
EM
EU x UK
Japan
Pac x Jpn
Global Equity Sector
Materials
Utilities
Telco
Real Estate
Financials
Industrials
Consumer Cyclicals
Energy
Staples
Health
Technology
Bond – FX Hedged Japan
Germany
US
UK
Nordic
Australia
EM Local
CreditCorporate IG
EMDCorporate High Yield
Commodity
Livestock
Softs
Energy
Base Metals
Grains
Precious
FXAUD
GBP
USD
JPY
Euro
Nordics
20
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
How are we invested?Dynamic, active, index-unconstrained
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 31 August 2017. Data is shown is for the Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund.
21
Earnings growth exposure – 24.6%
where company profits are underpriced
Participate but protect in EM – 13.3%
buy EM assets (participation) with AUD
bonds (protection)
Avoid expensive duration – 43.0%
short duration assets
Eurozone opportunities – 17.9%
invest in Eurozone risk assets
Other – 1.2%
Opportunistic investments
UK Equities, 6.7%
Japanese Equities, 13.3%
Asia ex Japan Equities, 2.5%
Indian Equities, 2.1%
Mexican Bonds, Partly FX Hedged,
6.1%
Commodities, 6.4%
Australian Gvt Bonds, FX Hedged,
0.8%Short Dated UK Credit, 22.4%
Property, 5.1%
Short Dated UK Gvt, 5.7%
Cash, Cash like & FX, 9.9%
High Yield, FX Hedged, 2.8%
Europe ex UK equities, 15.1%
US TIPS, 1.2%
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17
US Equities Europe ex UK Equities UK Equities
Japanese Equities EM Equity HY Credit
Dev Govt Bonds IG Credit EM Local
Commodities Property Cash & FX
Dynamic allocation
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 31 August 2017.
Data is shown is for the Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund.
22
Historic asset allocation Historic currency allocation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17
USD AUD CAD Europe x UK GBP JPY Commod EM
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17
Cu
mm
ula
tive
Re
turn
(%
)
Fund
CPI +4%
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return PerformanceSince Inception Annualised Return and Risk Profile
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 31 August 2017. Performance is in GBP, on an offer-to-offer basis, gross of annual management charges, using Global Close prices. Arithmetic
relative. CPI is represented with 2/3 the volatility of global equities. Past performance is no guide to future returns. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up.
Changes in exchange rates may also cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise.
23
Since Inception Annualised Return Since Inception Risk
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund 7.1% 4.9%
CPI +4% (lagged) 5.2% 7.9%
Fund -0.9%
Global Equities -5.5%
Global government bonds
2.0%
BREXIT
Fund 3.0%
DRR
Global BondsUK Bonds
UK Equities
Global Equities,
hedged to sterling
CPI (Lagged) +4%
CPI (Lagged)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
An
nu
ali
se
d R
etu
rn
Annualised Risk
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Performance
1 month 3 months YTD 1 Year
3 year
annualise
d
Since
Inception
annualise
d
2013** 2014 2015 2016 2017**
Fund
(gross)1.6 2.4 6.9 7.9 7.0 7.1 4.2 6.7 3.4 8.7 6.9
CPI +4%
p.a.0.3 0.8 3.9 6.3 5.0 5.2 3.3 4.6 4.2 5.3 3.9
Relative +1.3 +1.6 +2.9 +1.5 +1.9 +1.8 +0.9 +2.1 -0.9 +3.4 +2.9
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 31 August 2017. Performance is in GBP, on an offer-to-offer basis, gross of annual management charges, using Global Close prices. Arithmetic
relative. CPI is represented with 2/3 the volatility of global equities. Past performance is no guide to future returns. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up.
Changes in exchange rates may also cause the value of investments to fall as well as rise. * Periods one year and above are annualised ** Partial year
24
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year Since Inception
Re
turn
(%
)
Fund CPI+4% Actual
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
SummaryKey points
25
Clients have numerous needs and considerations, but longevity, inflation and volatility are at the core of them
when in income drawdown.
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return Fund was developed as a solution to help with these considerations
Equity like returns with 2/3rds volatility
An actively managed multi asset fund
Available via Retirement Advantage
RETIREMENT ADVANTAGE ADVISER EVENT
Learning outcomes
Understand the investment approach adopted by
Columbia Threadneedle Investments from a Multi Asset
perspective1
Learn more about Columbia Threadneedle
Investments’ views on the key factors to consider in
post-retirement solutions2
Gain an insight into the investment process, current
positioning and performance of the Dynamic Real
Return Fund 3
26
Threadneedle Dynamic Real Return FundObjective and key risks
27
Objective – The aim of the Fund is to provide a positive real rate of return above inflation (defined as the Consumer Price Index) over
the medium to long term and to provide a positive return over a three year time period, notwithstanding market conditions.
Investment Risk – The value of investments can fall as well as rise and investors might not get back the sum originally invested.
Investment in Funds – The Investment Policy allows the fund to invest principally in units of other collective investment schemes.
Investors should consider the investment policy and asset composition in the underlying funds when assessing their portfolio exposure.
Currency Risk – Where investments are made in assets that are denominated in multiple currencies, changes in exchange rates may
affect the value of the investments.
No Capital Guarantee – Positive returns are not guaranteed and no form of capital protection applies.
Issuer Risk – The fund invests in securities whose value would be significantly affected if the issuer either refused to pay or was
unable to pay or perceived to be unable to pay.
Interest Rate Risk – Changes in interest rates are likely to affect the fund’s value. In general, as interest rates rise, the price of a fixed
rate bond will fall, and vice versa.
Valuation Risk – The fund’s assets may sometimes be difficult to value objectively and the actual value may not be recognised until
assets are sold.
Investment in Derivatives – The Investment Policy of the fund allows it to invest materially in derivatives.
Volatility Risk – The fund may exhibit significant price volatility.
Important information
28
For internal use by Professional and/or Qualified Investors only (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by
exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested.
Threadneedle Opportunity Investment Funds ICVC (“TOIF”) is an open-ended investment company structured as an umbrella company, incorporated in England and Wales,
authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as a Non-UCITS scheme.
Subscriptions to a Fund may only be made on the basis of the current Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document, as well as the latest annual or interim reports and
the applicable terms & conditions. Please refer to the ‘Risk Factors’ section of the Prospectus for all risks applicable to investing in any fund and specifically this Fund. The above
documents are available in English only and may be obtained free of charge on request from Columbia Threadneedle Investments at PO Box 10033, Chelmsford, Essex CM99
2AL.
This presentation is not investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Investors should consult with their own professional advisors for advice on any investment, legal, tax, or
accounting issues relating an investment with Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
The mention of any specific shares or bonds should not be taken as a recommendation to deal.
This material is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an order to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment
advice or services.
The research and analysis included in this document has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been
acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and
should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
This presentation and its contents are confidential and proprietary. The information provided in this presentation is for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not
be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of Columbia Threadneedle Investments. This presentation is the property of
Columbia Threadneedle Investments and must be returned upon request.
Issued by Threadneedle Investment Services Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 3701768, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AG, United
Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.