Science and Implementation Planswww.wmo.int/thorpexFour sub-programmes + TIGGE

– Predictability and Dynamical Processes

– Observing Systems– Data Assimilation and Observing

strategies– Societal and Economic Applications

First Science Symposium (Montreal,2004);

Second Science Symposium

(December, 2006)

THORPEX is a significant contribution towards the WMO effort to mitigate the effects of natural disasters

THORPEX will fully realise the societal and economic benefits of improved weather forecast especially in developing and least developed countries

extend the range of skilful weather forecasts of high impact weather up to 14 days and beyond

Develop accurate and timely warnings in a form that can be readily used in decision-making support tools

ORGANISATION

International committee structure for the science established

Regional THORPEX Committees coordinate activities of regional groups of nations

-North America (NARC),

-Asia (ARC),

-Europe (ERC), and

-Southern Hemisphere (SHRC)

The International Projects Office directs, coordinates and monitors activities

REGIONAL COMMITTEES

The implementation of the international structure for THORPEX has revitalised activities in each region

The ARC, ERC, NARC and the SHRC are now developing implementation plans for their THORPEX involvement

A first draft of an African (mainly north of the equator) THORPEX plan will be discussed in Niamey in January 2007

Development of a major international plan for a Pacific Regional Campaign (TPARC) and an integrated plan for European Regional Campaigns

A Major THORPEX deliverable is a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users, using

targeted observations called on in ‘sensitive areas’, adaptive data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, grid computing and distributed archives accessible through a single entry point.

ATREC (2003) many groups are actively working with the data

European ETReC – D-Phase (MAP), COPS

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC 2008) – cyclone tracks, extra-tropical transitions, tropical warm-pool physics and down-stream propagation (link to, Beijing Olympics & International Polar Year)

Winter Olympics in Canada (2010)

Tropical convection (2012)

REGIONAL CAMPAIGNSContributing to elementsof a GIFS

An enhanced collaboration on development of ensemble prediction, internationally and between operational centres and universities

New methods of combining ensembles from different sources and of correcting for systematic errors (biases, spread over-/under-estimation)

A deeper understanding of the contribution of observation, initial and model uncertainties to forecast error

Real-time support for demonstration projects and field experiments

Societal applications leading to increased benefits to society

TIGGE – a major elementof a GIFS

TIGGE Workshop (March 2006)

Technical proposal for Phase 1 (global) developed by archive centres and agreed by ten potential providers (BMRC, CMA, ECMWF, FNMOC, JMA, KMA, Meteo-France, Environment Canada, NCEP, UKMO)

CMA, ECMWF and NCAR (the three phase 1 archive centres) have been in close contact for some time and test data have been sent routinely from ECMWF to NCAR

Access to the data base of global forecasts will be possible in Autumn 2006

TIGGE

With the WCRPJoint project to develop a unified approach to the development of high-resolution systems for weather prediction, seasonal forecasting and climate simulation

With GEOSSContribute to GEOSS societal benefit areas – for health, weather (TIGGE), agriculture and energy

With IPYTo improve the understanding of physical/dynamical processes in polar regions; utilise improved forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment

With AMMAInvolvement with the AMMA field campaign - results in stronger links for observing system experiments, modelling & predictability and societal and economic applications

PARTNERSHIPS FORRESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

A Brief Overview Of The THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

Assembled By

D. Parsons, P. Harr, and T. Nakazawa

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

• Summer – Fall 2008

• Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with hopes for some significant EU participation

• Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in:

– tropical cyclone formation– intensification – Motion/track– decay and/or ET

• North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in

– tropical and midlatitude predictability – tropical cyclones, – ET – intense extratropical cyclogenesis

T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts

NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

NRL P-3 and NRL P-3 and HIAPER with theHIAPER with theDLR Wind LidarDLR Wind Lidar

Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY

Winter storms Winter storms reconnaissancereconnaissanceand driftsondeand driftsonde

Proposing InstitutionsAccording to Regional Chairs

• North America– US Academic Community: SUNY at Stony Brook, U. of Hawaii, Naval Post Graduate School, U. of North

Carolina Charlotte, Pen. State, U. of Washington, U of Maryland, SUNY Albany, U of Miami, U of Wisconsin, Florida State U

– US Research Institutions: NCAR, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/NWS, Naval Research Lab, NASA/Goddard– Canadian: U McGill, MSC and Others

• Asia– China: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Chinese Meteorological Administration plus members of

the Academic Community in China– Japan: Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC), Kyoto U,

Nagoya U, Tohoku U, Tsukuba U, U of Tokyo– Korea: Korean Meteorological Administration, Cheju National U, Ehwa Womans U, Kongju National U,

Kyungpook National U, Seoul National U,Yonsei – Collaboration with an expanded DOTSTAR program

• Europe– Germany: U of Karlrsuhe, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, DLR – Hopefully Met Centers (ECMWF, Meteo France, Met Office, etc)

Note work with TIGGE will result in collaborations with all the world’s global forecast centers.

Scientific Objectives1) Advancing knowledge of the factors that limit the regional and

downstream predictability of high-impact weather events (e.g, persistent deep convection, tropical cyclones, extratropical transition events, and other intense cyclogenesis events) that occur over the North Pacific, adjacent land areas and other downstream areas;

2) Improved understanding of forecast error growth and the role of scale interactions;

3) Developing, advancing, and evaluating data assimilation strategies in concert with superior utilization of satellite measurements with the goal of improving prediction of high-impact weather events both over the Pacific rim and downstream locations;

4) To quantitatively predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations and to test new strategies

and observational systems for adaptive observing and modeling;

What causes decreased predictability? How is predictability decreased? What is needed to prevent decreases in predictability?

5) Testing the improvement in local and downstream forecast skill afforded by high-resolution, non-hydrostatic modeling of these high-impact weather events;

6) Improving the interpretation and utility of ensemble forecast systems;

7) Advancing knowledge of the dynamics that produce high impact weather events over the North Pacific and govern the downstream response to processes over the North Pacific and western Asia;

8) Understanding and improving society’s response to weather disasters, including the appropriate use and evaluation of probabilistic information, and estimating the “value” to society that results from improvements in forecast skill.

Scientific Objectives

ASIAN THORPEX Committee:

supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges

Prediction of Tropical Convection, Typhoon Genesis

Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

Typhoon Tokage, After Killing Almost 100 People, is Worst in Japan in 25 Years; Japan’s 10 Typhoons in 2004 are Record for Worst Ever (Oct. 2004)

Tokyo, Japan (HDW) October 23, 2004 - Typhoon Tokage ravaged Kyoto and Tokyo on Japan’s main islands, potentially killing almost 100 people. This typhoon is reported to be the worst since 1979, making it the worst in a generation. Japan has suffered through 10 typhoons this year, which makes this the worst typhoon season by far in Japan’s history. The 2004 season has also been the worst hurricane season on record for the State of Florida within the United States, and the worst typhoon season for the country of China within Asia. Researchers are still trying to setermine exactly what made this one of the worst seasons globally for cyclone activity. The picture above, taken by a NASA satellite, shows Typhoon Tokage devastating the Japanese main islands.Typhoon Tokage was originally expected to weaken, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC), as it tracked into cooler sea surface temperatures and sucked drier air into itself, but the storm maintained much of its strength as it moved through the ancient Japanese capital of Kyoto, and the modern Japanese capital of Tokyo. This typhoon was originally expected to lose power and spare major Japanese cities from the calamities of other typhoons that have hit Japan in this worst of Japanese typhoon seasons. Typhoon Tokage, however, caused great flooding and heavy rains, and many people are still missing. (http://www.hdweather.com/typhoon/typhoon_361.htm)

Total Damages in public infrastructure(agriculture, Road, etc) by Typhoon and Heavy Rainfall in Japan this year are US $10 billion.

Typhoon Tokage insurance claims are estimated at 88.5 billion Yen ($839 million).

U. S. projects nationwide hurricane damages in 2004 at $850 million.

Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia

TY Tokage, October 2004Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system

Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

Westward

Northward

Ensemble Forecast for Tokage　　 Initial: 8 day before landfall

Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogenesis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide

The Arctic: A residence in Shishmaref, Alaska – A Direct Hit By Tokage After ET

(Loss of Permafrost Coupled with Wave Actions)

Courtesy of James Partain, NWS

20 Oct 200427 Oct 2004

20 Oct 200427 Oct 2004

Major precipitation event on the west coast of North America at the timeTokage is making landfall on Japan

Downstream Indirect Impacts

200 hPa

TY TokageWest coast rainfall event

20 October

200 hPa meridional wind anomalies 40o-60o N

TY Nabi TY Saola

Impacts on Numerical Model Performance

200 hPa meridional wind anomalies

Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response

Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response

Ex-TY Nabi

Ex-TY Saola

a

c

b

d

NOGAPS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005 NOGAPS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005

GFS +120 0000 UTC 23 Sep 2005 GFS +00 0000 UTC 28 Sep 2005

Forecast Verification500 hPa heights

TY SAOLA

Forecast Verification

NOGAPS

GFS

Major Science Issues•Mechanisms

- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure

- outflow

- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow

- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

Tropical cyclone core region

Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface

Midlatitude impact region

Major Science Issues•Mechanisms

- Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics- influence of TC structure

- outflow

- warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow

- Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics

•Predictability (understanding and assessment)- Ensemble spread- Forecast difficulty- Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response

- Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle

•Predictability (increase)- Data sampling strategies

- adequate sampling of important physical characteristics- data platform types

- Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide

Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide

Western WA flood (Seattle 1-day record)

CA Wild Fires(downslope winds)

BC’s flood of the Century (18.5”)

A Series of Three Poorly Predicted Major Downstream Events Initiated by Tropical Convection

Materials provided by L. McMurdie, M.

Shapiro, and D. Parsons

TS 21

TY 20TD 22TD 23

Western WA Flood (Seattle1-day record)

CA Wild Fires(downslope winds)

BC’s flood of the Century (18.5”)

Region oftropical cyclones

Examples of Asian and North American Forecast Challenges

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Genesis

Accurate Prediction of Typhoon Track Forecasts for Recurvature and Extratropical Transition (ET)

Accurate Prediction of ET and Other Intense Middle Latitude Cyclogensis Events and Their Pronounced Downstream Influence via the Northern Wave Guide

Accurate Prediction of Tropical Convection, Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity and the Downstream Impacts via the Southern Wave Guide

“To Target or Not to Target That Is The Question!” or is it “When Do We Target and How (satellite, lidar winds or In-situ Sensing?”

Operational analysis at 500 hPa （12UTC 8 June2004）

Broken circles: Areas withtyphoon bogusing

Red: Dropsonde data byDOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004BAMS)

Dropsonde Observations forTyphoon Track Forecasts

Guam, Anderson AFB

Tropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, Aerosonde

Subtropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3,

Okinawa, Kadena AFB

Midlatitude operating regionNRL P-3, HIAPER, Aerosonde

Japan, Yokota AFB

Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation

TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction

ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis

TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005

T-PARC North American Components

Extratropical Transition, Winter Storms andDownstream Impacts

Tropical Measurements

T-PARC • Tropical and ET Measurements:

– Driftsondes• Launch from Hawaii or suitable location• 30 gondolas, 50 sondes/gondola• Multiple heights to get broad coverage• August-September 2008

– NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes• Operation from Anderson AFB, Guam and Kadena AFB, Okinawa• Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each )• Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)

– Other Components• DOTSTAR• Tibetan Plateau Observations• Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

Simulated Driftsonde Trajectories

(Supplied by W.-C. Lee and M.-D. Chou)

Monsoon Depression: Pre-TY Robyn

Guam

Figures from Harr et al. (1996)

NRL P-3 Strategy

Operational analysis at 500 hPa （12UTC 8 June2004）

Broken circles: Areas withtyphoon bogusing

Red: Dropsonde data byDOTSTAR (Wu et al. 2004BAMS)

Dropsonde Observations forTyphoon Track Forecasts

T-PARC

• Extratropical Transition and Downstream Impacts:

– Gulfstream-V High Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER)• Operation from Yokota AFB, Japan• 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each)• 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)• DLR Wind Lidar

– NRL P-3/ NCAR ELDORA/ GPS Dropwindsondes• Operation from Kadena AFB, Okinawa and Yokota AFB, Japan• Portion of 150 research hours (15 missions @ 10 h each )• Portion of 450 dropwindsondes (30 sondes per mission)

Other Components• DOTSTAR• Enhanced Siberian Observation network• Korean/Japan contributions to Targeting Aircraft • Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

From Klein et al. (2000)

Components

Tropical cyclone core region

Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface region

Midlatitude impact region

Downstream impacts may be forced by:• Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in the tropical cyclone core region

•Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region

• Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.

NSF/NCAR HIAPER G-VStrategies

Tropical Cyclone – midlatitude interface region

Midlatitude impact region

T-PARC • Winter Storms and Downstream Impacts

Driftsondes• Launch from two locations throughout Japan• Missions at mutliple heights• 30 gondolas with 30 sondes each• 5-week period: Nov-Dec 2008

Other Components• NOAA G-IV Shifted Westward toward Asia • Hurricane Hunter Training flights in Central Pacific for the

Winter Reconnaissance Program • Enhanced Siberian Observation network• Satellite: MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms

T-PARC: a global effort

• In the spirit of A-TREC, the North America and Asian Regional Committees encourage scientific participation from other regions

• Based on the Cardinali (ECMWF) and Weissmann (DLR) results, the DLR Doppler lidar on HIAPER is our highest (and currently only) observational system requested from the EU. It is a high priority for T-PARC, but may be difficult for us to fully fund.

• We have requested TIGGE in “real-time” for the field phase.

• We ask that the operational centers in the EU consider data impact and denial studies for T-PARC.

• We hope that some of the research expertise from the EU academic, operational and research laboratories become entrained into T-PARC in the areas of ET, Rossby wave dynamics, data assimilation and other fields. This is happening already and T-PARC, like other THORPEX efforts, will have a relatively open data policy.

T-PARC Status• Science Plan Overview and the Experiment Design Overview submitted to NSF

in January 2006 and received very strong scientific reviews– Includes letters-of-intent from approximately 30 investigators – Approved to allow submission of a detailed facility request document.

• Facility Request for NSF/EOL supported platforms submitted September 2006

• International:– Funding in place for several components

• Canada ($100-150K for instrumentation, plus in-kind scientific support) :• Korea• DOTSTAR• Tibetan Plateau • Others to be defined at the Asian THORPEX meeting in October 2006.

– Driftsonde – Observations for the 2008 Olympics– Korean or Japan airborne facilities

• Discussion: – Further input from T-PARC countries– Suggestions to T-PARC Committee– Suggestions for other THORPEX tropical

related priorities and activities

– Thank you!