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TRANSCRIPT
Think Global, Act Local
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Craig Ebert – Senior EconomistJanuary 2019
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Global Issues/Risks
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• Global economy – slowdown (recession?)• Inverted yield curves• A correction in (equity) markets• US economy coming off a solid 2018 (Fed pause)• China slowing further (as intended?)• BREXIT – political quagmire with economic
consequences• Australian economy not so strong
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Flagging Rather Than Faltering
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Just A Healthy Correction?
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
New Zealand Economy
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• A sense of resilience• Policy change important to keep monitoring• Government (industrial policy?)• RBNZ (Phase1, Phase2, bank capital proposals)• NZIER’s QSBO weak only in confidence• Capacity constraints still to the fore• Rates and NZD awaiting direction
PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Confidence Still (A Bit) Below Par
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
But Activity Indicators Not Too Bad
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Employing and Investing
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Knee-Deep in Capacity Constraints
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Pressure on Costs (Profits)
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Rate Cuts?
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
A Broadly Robust Currency
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PRIVATE & CONFIDENTIAL | BNZ MARKETS
Disclaimer
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