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Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

of 70 27th February 2018

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Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

Contents Introduction 1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of

Change model 2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change

model 3 The participatory process of identifying the

Theory of Change for a programme or idea 3.1 Working with stakeholders

4 Using assumptions to help identify key risks Summary Self-assessment questions (SAQs) End of Module Quiz References and acknowledgements




Theory of Change

IntroductionThis module will support your understanding and use of the Theory

of Change Tool from the DIY Toolkit. You should look at the

Theory of Change template before working through the

module. You will find it helpful to have a printout of the Theory of

Change template with you while you work through this module.

The Theory of Change is a tool that helps explain the relationship

between a development problem being addressed and the

strategies used to address it, showing why and how change takes

place.

A Theory of Change can come in many different formats, but

commonly involves a diagram containing boxes and arrows laid

out to show how elements fit together, and why this arrangement

should work.

Carrying out a Theory of Change should be a collaborative and

consultative process. It connects stakeholders, clarifying a

common pathway to a shared goal, promoting understanding of

stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership among those

involved. It is also a tool to enhance accountability, explaining the

value in particular activities and so justifying the use of resources.




http://diytoolkit.org/tools/theory-of-change/

Theory of Change

A key element of the Theory of Change is the identification of

assumptions. Analysing and talking through these assumptions

can help you to identify and plan for potential risks.

This module provides an overview of the Theory of Change model

and an introduction to its value and use.

Learning outcomesAfter studying this module, you should be able to:

describe the purpose and benefits of using a Theory of

Change model (SAQ 1)

identify the steps involved in reaching a goal using the

Theory of Change model (SAQ 2)

lead a participatory process of identifying the Theory of

Change for a programme or idea (SAQ 3)

recognise how identifying assumptions helps to

manage risks (SAQ 4).




Theory of Change

1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of Change modelDevelopment is a results-driven sector. Those involved in

delivering development projects are accountable to a range of

stakeholders, including people directly affected – primary

stakeholders or beneficiaries – as well as partners, donors and

groups within their own organisations. A rigorous approach to a

development problem involves critical analysis of all of the key

steps that must take place in order to achieve the desired social

change.

The Theory of Change is termed a ‘theory’ because development

pathways are complicated and can be difficult to predict. For the

same reason, throughout this module the word ‘model’ is used to

describe the process or the tool. Through developing a Theory of

Change, you can identify and analyse a range of interrelated

elements to help ensure you are on the right path. You can also

challenge key assumptions and mitigate risks. A well-planned

Theory of Change can help ensure that the project framework is fit

for purpose and therefore more likely to lead to the desired

changes.

Critically, a Theory of Change must be the result of an effective

participatory process where stakeholders work together to define




Theory of Change

and refine the model. The stakeholders are then more likely to own

the result, increasing the likelihood of project success as well as

enhancing accountability.

Figure 1 summarises the key purposes and benefits of a Theory of

Change.

Figure 1: Purposes and values of a Theory of Change

Activity 1Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity

Now have a closer look at the Theory of Change template used in

the DIY Toolkit. As you do so, think about a project you are familiar

with or have been involved in. What was the ultimate aim or goal of

the project? Can you briefly identify various elements of the project

design that could fit within the template?




Theory of Change

You will work through the Theory of Change in more detail later in

the module. For now, the point of this first activity is to begin to

think about how elements of the Theory of Change are

sequentially linked. Long-term change is the result of a sequence

of steps. Each step involves assumptions about people’s

behaviours and motivations as well as external factors that may be

beyond the control of stakeholders.

Note your thoughts in the box below.

Provide your answer...




Theory of Change

2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change modelThis section will take you through the Theory of Change model

using a development example – the problem of high maternal

mortality (deaths of women in childbirth) in sub-Saharan Africa.

The specific challenges are that expectant mothers often do not

have access to specialist obstetric care facilities and deliver their

babies at home without specialist care or in facilities without

trained staff or adequate equipment. Where adequate facilities do

exist, women may be unaware of the benefits of using them.

Access to specialist care during delivery can therefore relate both

to availability and awareness.

Maternal mortality was addressed in Millennium Development Goal

5 (MDG5) (United Nations, n.d.) and is now part of Sustainable

Development Goal 5: ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing

for all at all ages’. The MDG5 goal (which was not met) was to

reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal

mortality ratio. (This is the ratio of the number of maternal deaths

during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same

time period.)




Theory of Change

Note that it is important to recognise that what follows is a learning

exercise rather than a Theory of Change process, which must, by

definition, involve other stakeholders.

Now refer to the Theory of Change template in the DIY toolkit.

Starting on the left-hand side of the template, you enter the

problem you are trying to solve. In the example of maternal

mortality, this is poor access to, or awareness of, obstetric care

facilities, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in

healthcare facilities.

Moving to the right on the template, you would then identify the key

audience. In this example, there are two key audiences. The first is

women of childbearing age. The second is the health workers

involved in childbirth, from traditional birth attendants through to

midwives in healthcare facilities.

In the next box you should detail the entry point for reaching the

key audiences. In this example, this is village health workers (who

can reach women of childbearing age as well as traditional birth

attendants) and district-level health officers (who are responsible

for the training of healthcare facility staff as well as the provision of

equipment).

Moving further to the right you should now enter the steps needed

to bring about the change. In this example, these steps involve




Theory of Change

training of midwives and traditional birth attendants, improved

equipment and facilities, and raising awareness among women of

childbearing age to know when to seek assistance and deliver their

baby in a healthcare facility.

Of the next three columns on the right, it is often the longer-term

goal that is quite clear and implicit in the identified problem.

Activity 2Allow around 5 minutes for this activity

Can you identify the longer-term goal in the example of maternal

mortality?


View discussion - Activity 2

You may have recognised that the longer-term goal is not

necessarily the same as the direct output (or measurable effect) of

the work. In this example, the measurable effects are increased

awareness among women of childbearing age of the benefits of

delivering their babies in a healthcare facility, improved knowledge

and skills of midwives and traditional birth attendants, and

improved provision of equipment and facilities.

The wider benefits, or outcomes of the intervention, are that more

women have better-quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth. of 70 27th February 2018



Theory of Change

The logic is that if women are more aware of the benefits of

delivering their babies in healthcare facilities, and if health workers

are better trained and have better equipment, then more women

receive specialist care, which contributes to a reduction in

maternal mortality.


Using the information in Section 2 and the template provided

below, try to complete a Theory of Change for the example of

maternal mortality. At this stage, don’t worry about completing the

boxes headed ‘Key assumptions’ – you are going to work through

these in Section 4. However, if you have any ideas about these

now then do make some notes.

What is the problem you are

Who is your key audien

What is your entry point for

What steps are needed to

What is the measurable eff

What are the wider benefits

What is the long-term chan




Theory of Change

trying to solve?

ce?

reaching your key audience?

bring about change?

ect of your work?

of your work?

ge you see as your goal?

Measurable effect?

Wider benefits?




Theory of Change

Measurable effect?

Wider benefits?

Key assumptions

Key assumptions

Key assumptions

Key assumptions

Key assumptions

Key assumptions

Stakeholders





Theory of Change

3 The participatory process of identifying the Theory of Change for a programme or ideaThe example used in Section 2 was based on personal knowledge

and experience of similar interventions. However, this was for the

purposes of introducing the tool. In practice this is not an effective

way to develop a Theory of Change. One person is unlikely to fully

understand all of the issues involved, and they would not get broad

consensus about the theory if nobody else has been involved in

developing it.

Key pointA Theory of Change model is more effective if it is the result of a

participatory process that involves as wide a range of stakeholders

as practicable.

Even when you, as a development practitioner, think you have a

clear idea of the problem and what needs to be done, it is still a

good idea to begin a participatory process that sets aside your own

preconceptions. This is because:

1. you are bound to learn more from other stakeholders,

and

2. you want your stakeholders to own the process.




Theory of Change

It is reasonable to identify the goal you are hoping to reach as well

as some ideas about the problem, otherwise it would be difficult to

assemble the appropriate stakeholders. It is likely that you will also

have ideas and options about how to address the problem. But

from there it is critical to develop the Theory of Change in a

participatory way.

Normally this will involve inviting stakeholders to a planning

session to develop the ideas further and agree on a way forward.

Your stakeholders may be

primary: those directly affected by the intervention

being planned, or

secondary: those affected indirectly.


The Theory of Change used in Section 2 identifies two key

audiences and mentions other groups but does not list possible

stakeholders. Can you list groups or individuals that you would

consider as primary and secondary stakeholders who could be

part of a participatory process of developing the project further,

including defining the Theory of Change?

Use the text boxes below to create your two lists.




Theory of Change

Primary stakeholders


Secondary stakeholders


View discussion - Untitled part

3.1 Working with stakeholdersIt is not a straightforward process to identify stakeholders, let alone

gather so many together. Usually you will have to make

compromises. It is important to consult your key partners, such as

the district health officers in this case, to help identify and invite

your other potential stakeholders. You need also to consider the

total number of participants. Aim for no more than about 20. With

more than this it becomes difficult to ensure effective participation.

It is important to do some thorough research prior to gathering

your stakeholders. Presenting the information that is available on

the identified problem will help to set the scene (e.g. a map of

healthcare facilities, data on the distribution of health workers, and

details of other interventions that are currently taking place or

planned). A summary of evidence in favour of possible

interventions (steps needed to bring about change) can also be

useful as you move through the model.




Theory of Change

When you hold your workshop, you can discuss the problem with

stakeholders and see if there is broad agreement about the way

the problem has been identified. You may find it useful to review

the Causes Diagram in the DIY toolkit. This can help to build a

shared understanding about the problem, its effects and possible

solutions. From there, you could break into small groups and ask

each group to complete the section in the Theory of Change on

identifying the key audience. You could then ask a representative

from each small group to present back to the whole group and

discuss any variations that have arisen.

The next step would be to try to narrow down the options and seek

agreement, perhaps using a democratic process, voting from a

choice of options (Figure 2). You could have a master version of

the template on the wall that you complete as you gain consensus,

then moving on to the next section to repeat the process. What

arises in later sections may cause you to challenge what has been

discussed in previous sections, so the process is likely to be

iterative.




http://diytoolkit.org/tools/causes-diagram/%20

Theory of Change

Figure 2: Using group discussions to gain broad consensus (Theory of

Change workshop, Kathmandu, November 2015)

Activity 5Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity

Imagine that you are going to facilitate a Theory of Change

workshop. You have about 20 stakeholders coming to your

workshop. Develop an outline agenda for the day and type it in the

box below.






Theory of Change

4 Using assumptions to help identify key risksAt the bottom of each column of the DIY Theory of Change

template is a box labelled ‘Key assumptions’. Assumptions help to

explain the Theory of Change process and the connections

between the measurable effects, wider benefits and the longer-

term goal, as well as how and why proposed activities are

expected to bring these changes about.

Assumptions are often taken for granted and may be based on

opinions or beliefs. However, they can also be founded on

research or best practice. Assumptions can help to catalyse a

discussion about critical questions and lead to consensus among

stakeholders, strengthening the case for the pathway selected.

Figure 3: Challenging assumptions can help avoid mistakes

Assumptions that turn out to be incorrect can lead to mistakes

(Figure 3). It is therefore very important in developing a Theory of

Change that you identify, analyse and challenge assumptions with

your stakeholders. This will lead to increased understanding and a




Theory of Change

process of refining both assumptions and other elements of the

theoretical framework.

Case Study 1: The problems with assumptionsGrace works on a livelihoods project in Malawi funded by

development partners. The problem being addressed is high levels

of youth unemployment, so the target group is ‘out-of-school

youths’. However, there are several assumptions underlying this

definition. Grace summarises some of these below together with

their associated problems.

Assumption

Problem

Youths belong to an accepted age grou

The definition of youth is variable. In




Theory of Change

p. Malawi it includes everyone between the ages of 10 and 35. However, the project may not be ai




Theory of Change

med at everyone in this age range. Also, there is an assumption that everyone can identify his or he




Theory of Change

r own age, which is not always the case.

Out-of-school youths are in need of support.

Some young people may have opted out of school an




Theory of Change

d started enterprises or are in gainful employment.

Out-of-school youths are beyond school age.

Out-of-school youths can be of school age (se




Theory of Change

e above). In many countries, including Malawi, not all children enrol in, or complete, school. Som




Theory of Change

etimes children do not attend because they are unable to afford school fees, or they are required




Theory of Change

to help in the home.

Levels of youth unemployment are known.

Unemployment is not always easy to define and measure. Youths may be invo




Theory of Change

lved in some kind of economic activity while still not fully or gainfully employed. In many case




Theory of Change

s systems may not be adequate to accurately measure unemployment.

Each one of Grace’s assumptions (and you may have thought of

more) could lead to discussion and debate among stakeholders.

Within a Theory of Change process, this discussion, and

subsequent refining/redefining, can contribute to a theoretical

framework that more accurately reflects the reality of a situation.




Theory of Change

If you proceed without working through assumptions you increase

the likelihood of encountering unforeseen difficulties along the

way. Building on the example above, if Grace had not adequately

defined ‘youths’ before promoting the project in the community

there could have been confusion about eligibility or an inconsistent

approach adopted by partners, potentially risking the success of

the project.


Building on the example of maternal mortality, try to identify

possible assumptions.





Theory of Change

SummaryThis module showed you how to use a Theory of Change to help

define the relationship between a development problem and the

actions designed to address it.

A Theory of Change should be the result of an effective

participatory process, ensuring that stakeholders own the process

and the result. This enhances accountability and promotes a

greater sense of ownership, and hence increases the likelihood of

achieving the desired results.




Theory of Change

Self-assessment questions (SAQs)SAQ 1A friend of yours has never heard the term ‘Theory of Change’

before. In no more than two sentences, describe to her what the

Theory of Change is, what it is used for and why it is important.

Type your answer into the text box below.


View discussion - SAQ 1

SAQ 2Match each of the elements of a Theory of Change below with the

element that comes after it:

The problem

The entry point

The wider benefits

The steps needed to bring about change

The goal

The audience




Theory of Change

SAQ 3Identify the statements below as true or false:

a. In developing a Theory of Change it is useful to gather

stakeholders together in order to get them on board

and bring them around to your point of view.

True

False


a. Planning and preparing for a participatory process to

develop a Theory of Change will involve at least partly

identifying the goal and problem.

True

False


a. If you develop a Theory of Change without a

participatory process it is unlikely to be effective.

True

False of 70 27th February 2018



Theory of Change


a. A completed Theory of Change may be the result of a

democratic process.

True

False


SAQ 4In the example of maternal mortality, an assumption was made

that if women deliver their babies in a healthcare facility they will

have a better outcome (i.e. maternal mortality will be reduced).

Can you challenge this assumption? Make a few brief notes in the

text box below.


View discussion - SAQ 4




Theory of Change

End of Module QuizCongratulations, you have now reached the end of this module!

We hope that you have enjoyed it, and have learned useful skills.

End of Module Quiz

This quiz allows you to work towards your badge for DIY Learn: Theory of Change. To achieve your badge, you must answer six

out of eight questions correctly.

You can try each question three times.

There is no limit to the number of attempts you can

have to take the whole quiz.

If you answer fewer than six questions correctly, you

will need to start again if you want to earn your badge.

Don’t worry if you are not successful first time, as you will be able

to attempt the quiz again in 24 hours.

You need to enrol in this course before you can attempt this quiz

which you can do by clicking on the Sign up / Sign in button at the

top of this page.

End of module quiz




http://www.open.edu/openlearnworks/mod/quiz/view.php?id=81121

Theory of Change

When you have finished the quiz, click on ‘Next’ to review your

‘Summary of attempt’. Once you are happy with your answers,

click ‘Submit all and finish’. Once you have finished this quiz you

will be redirected back to this page.

Don’t forget there are another nine modules to choose from which

you can find on the DIY Learn home page.




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Theory of Change

References and acknowledgementsInspired by: Nesta (2011) Theory of Change.

This Module should be cited as follows:

DIY Learn (2016) Theory of Change, Copyright © The Open

University and Nesta

Except for third party materials and otherwise stated below, this

content is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-

ShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ ). The material acknowledged below is Proprietary and

used under licence for this project, and not subject to the Creative

Commons Licence. This means that this material may only be

used un-adapted within the DIY Learn project and not in any

subsequent OER versions.

Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following sources for

permission to reproduce the material in this module:

Figure 2: courtesy © Anna Childs

United Nations (n.d.) 'We can end poverty: millennium

development goals and beyond 2015', United Nations [Online].

Available at www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml (Accessed 12 November 2015). of 70 27th February 2018



http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

http://www.nesta.org.uk/library/documents/TheoryOfChangeDiagram_Editable.pdf

Theory of Change

Return to the DIY Learn home page




http://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/index.php?categoryid=142

Theory of Change

Activity 2DiscussionThe longer-term goal is to reduce maternal mortality.

Back to Session 3 Activity 1




Theory of Change

Activity 3DiscussionYours may not be exactly like the example here, but did you

capture the key elements summarised in the Theory of Change

below?

What is the problem yo

Who is your key audienc

What is your entry poin

What steps are neede

What is the measurable

What are the wider be

What is the long-term




Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

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Stakeholders





Theory of Change

Activity 4Untitled partDiscussionYou may have included the following:

Primary stakeholders

Beneficiaries (e.g. representatives of women of

childbearing age)

Traditional birth attendants’ and midwives’

representatives

Local traditional leaders

Youth group representatives

Disabled people’s unions

Local women’s groups

Secondary stakeholders

Head of healthcare facilities

District-level health officials

District-level government officials

National-level Ministry of Health officials, Nursing and

Midwifery Council, etc.

Donor agencies of 70 27th February 2018



Theory of Change

Local non-governmental organisations (NGOs)

International NGOs

Secondary school representatives

In identifying stakeholders you may find it useful to use the People and Connections Map from the DIY toolkit.

Back to Session 4 Part 3




http://diytoolkit.org/tools/people-connections-map/%20

http://diytoolkit.org/tools/people-connections-map/%20

Theory of Change

Activity 5DiscussionIt’s a good idea to start the day by explaining the model of the

Theory of Change to your group, perhaps using an example, and

then use small-group work (Figure 2) to complete the model for

your project stage by stage, reverting to whole-group discussions

to talk through areas of contention and to challenge assumptions.

Don’t forget to build in tea and lunch breaks to keep energy levels

high. You can also consider using energisers – short physical

activities – to keep people active, and build in competitions,

perhaps for the clearest, best-worded statements that others vote

on. You can give out prizes – tasty treats, perhaps?





Theory of Change

Activity 7DiscussionBuilding on the Theory of Change that focused on reducing

maternal mortality and identified some assumptions that could lead

to discussion and adjustment of the theoretical framework.

What is the problem yo

Who is your key audienc

What is your entry poin

What steps are neede

What is the measurable

What are the wider be

What is the long-term




Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

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Theory of Change

SAQ 1DiscussionAnswer: Did you use any phrases similar to those below?

It is a tool that helps define the relationship between a

development problem and the strategies used to

address it.

It is usually a diagram containing boxes and arrows

laid out to show how various elements fit together,

and why the proposed strategy should work.

It is used to explain why particular activities are

planned to take place and so justifying the use of

resources.

It connects stakeholders, clarifying a common pathway

to a shared goal, promoting understanding of

stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership

among those involved.

It includes identification of assumptions, which can

help to identify and plan for potential risks.

Back to Session 7 SAQ 1




Theory of Change

Untitled partDiscussionFalse: You want stakeholders to be part of the process and learn

together.





Theory of Change

Untitled partDiscussionTrue: The process is likely to involve challenging assumptions

about the goal and problem, but you cannot assemble relevant

stakeholders if you do not have initial ideas about the goal and the

problem.





Theory of Change

Untitled partDiscussionTrue: This is probably true, although you would not be the first to

try.





Theory of Change

Untitled partDiscussionTrue: There is unlikely to be unanimous agreement at each step

of the way and a majority decision may sometimes be a feasible

outcome.





Theory of Change

SAQ 4DiscussionThis may seem a reasonable assumption, but whether delivery in a

healthcare facility leads to a better outcome depends on many

factors. For example:

Women may live far from healthcare facilities and the

travel may pose a risk to them.

The healthcare facility may be understaffed or staffed

by untrained personnel.

Equipment in the healthcare facility may be

inadequate.

Traditional birth attendants in village settings may be

well trained and a better option for women in some

cases.

Although many of these issues are addressed in the Theory of

Change, they may raise some questions about the timing of the

changes that need to happen. For example, improvements at the

healthcare facilities should take place before women are

encouraged to attend there to deliver their babies.

Back to Session 7 SAQ 4




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