theglobal nuclear future · developed some nuclear fuel cycle capa-bilities without any us...

SPRING • 2002

The Next Eraof NuclearPower

A QUARTERLY RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT JOURNALVOLUME 4, NO. 1

theGLOBALNUCLEAR FUTURE

Sandia Technology is a quarterly journal published bySandia National Laboratories. Sandia is a multiprogramengineering and science laboratory operated by SandiaCorporation, a Lockheed Martin company, for theDepartment of Energy. With main facilities in Albuquerque,New Mexico, and Livermore, California, Sandia has broad-based research and development responsibilities for nuclearweapons, arms control, energy, the environment, economiccompetitiveness, and other areas of importance to the needsof the nation. The Laboratories’ principal mission is tosupport national defense policies, by ensuring that thenuclear weapon stockpile meets the highest standards ofsafety, reliability, security, use control, and militaryperformance. For more information on Sandia, see ourWeb site at http://www.sandia.gov.

To request additional copies or to subscribe, contact:Michelle FlemingMedia Relations Communications Dept.MS 0165Sandia National LaboratoriesP.O. Box 5800Albuquerque, NM 87185-0165Voice: (505) 844-4902Fax: (505) 844-1392e-mail: [email protected]

Sandia Technology Staff:Laboratory Directed Research & Development ProgramManager: Chuck Meyers, Sandia National LaboratoriesEditor: Will Keener, Sandia National LaboratoriesWriting: Chris Burroughs, John German, Howard Kercheval,Bill Murphy, Neal SingerPhotography: Randy J. Montoya and John Heald,Sandia National LaboratoriesDesign: Douglas Prout, Technically Write

Frank Bouchier, of Sandia's Entry Control and Contraband Detectiondeparment, tests a version of an airport portal device for sniffingexplosives on airline passengers, which is now being commercialized.Sensors — in devices like this — and many other applications arebecoming commonplace. The next issue of SANDIA TECHNOLOGY examinesthe challenges of turning data from these sensors into streams of valuableinformation for many applications. Sandia Photo by Randy J. Montoya

S A N D I A T E C H N O L O G Y

ON THE COVER:This one-quarter scale-model concrete containment vessel was tested tofailure in 2001 to gather experimental data. This experiment marks one of themany pieces Sandia is contributing to making a better Global Nuclear Future.Photo: Randy J. MontoyaDesign: Doug Prout

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Dear Readers:

A nuclear power renaissancein the US is at hand. After decadesof mistrust surroundingenvironmental, safety and costconcerns, the New York Timesobserves that the energy sector is“bubbling with new hopes andplans.” The trick is to turn the hopesand plans into reality.

This issue of SandiaTechnology outlines some of theissues connected with such an effort,provides a vision of how therenaissance can be achieved, andreviews some of the critical researchnow under way at Sandia.

Sandia researchers are atwork providing the nation and theworld with the technical capabilitiesto respond to the needs of thenuclear renaissance. Together withindustry, universities and othergovernmental agencies, this workcan lead decision-makers to a betterunderstanding of issues,opportunities and options for abeneficial Global Nuclear Future.

Will KeenerEditor

F R O M T H EE d i t o r

T A B L E O FC o n t e n t s

I N S I G H T Sby U.S. SenatorPete V. Domenici

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The Global Nuclear Future:

An Overview

Atoms for Peace

Vision

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Nuclear Power 2010

The Peaceful Atom

Russia and U.S.

Working Together

After September 11

Seeds of the Future

Researchersa t S a n d i aNational Lab-orator ies andelsewhere believe itis critical that the USdefine a new role fornuclear power in thecoming months. Thisissue of Sandia Tech-nology i s a imed a texploring aspects of America’srole in the future of nuclear power aroundthe globe. It’s a role that started in theDwight Eisenhower administration of theearly 1950s, with his “Atoms for Peace”strategy. The globe is a much more tangledweb of interests and issues a half centurylater, but the need for an internationalstrategy — with the US as a key player —is more critical than ever.

Recently scientists at Sandia begantalking to their Russian counterparts via aninternational video conferencing networkabout a global model for the next nuclearera that they will provide in coming monthsto US and Soviet policy-makers. One ofthe first things needed, experts from bothcountries agreed, was an understanding ofthe energy past and present. How did weget to where we are today? That brings usback to the question we began with.

How does nuclear power fit intoconsiderations about the new global politicalstructure, the industrialization of China andthe third world, and increasing concernabout terrorism? Why did we mention thoseindispensable gasoline-burning autos? Let’stake them one at a time.

Decline of US Leadership

Twenty-five years ago, the USsupplied 50 percent of the world trade innuclear materials, hardware and services.Currently, we actually import most of theenriched uranium used in this countryironically, through an arms controlagreement with Russia. Governmentpolicies – aimed at successfully controllingthe spread of nuclear technologies – haveforced civilian nuclear energy suppliers inthe US to compete in a new, unfamiliarmarketplace. The result is that other nationsare now independently developing suppliercapabilities to provide nuclear energyservices throughout the world. US influencehas waned.

This decline is tied to US policy inthe first nuclear era, which has seen threemajor changes over the last fifty-plus years.These changes are marked by the initialAtomic Energy Act, Eisenhower’s “Atomsfor Peace” initiative and a convergence ofevents during the 1970s. With the end ofthe Cold War, a new global nuclearinfrastructure is evolving, presentingdifferent challenges to safe, secure nuclearpower commerce and operations.

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Question:What do the

collapse of the Berlinwall, the increasingnumber of Chinese-made goods at yourlocal discount store,global warming, the

attacks on the WorldTrade Center, and your

four-year-old, fuel-efficient automobile

have in common?

Answer:While it’s certainly

not clear they haveanything in common,

each one impactsAmerica’s 21st Century

role in a newnuclear era.

the Global Nuclear Future:An Overview


By Thomas Sanders

The Atomic Energy Act of 1946 wasdesigned to control the spread of nuclearweapons know-how by maintaining a USmonopoly and discouraging peaceful usesof nuclear energy. By the early 1950s,Eisenhower and his advisors realized thatsecrecy – the main component of the earlyapproach – could not contain interest inpeaceful uses of nuclear energy. His “Atomsfor Peace” proposal (see page 7) resulted inactive international collaboration for peacefuluses of nuclear energy over the next twentyyears.

The turbulent 1970s started withpositive collaborations, many fueled by theso-called “energy crisis,” and ended withthe Three Mile Island incident. Perceivedrapid expansions of demand for nuclearpower, India’s explosion of a “peaceful”nuclear device and European plans toreprocess fuel, provoked severe restrictionson nuclear trade and cooperation in the US.

US decisions on nuclear power madein the 1970s called for:

• Cutting back uranium enrichmentcapacities,• Stopping civilian reprocessing of nuclearfuel, (and by default, research onadvanced breeder reactors)• Reducing research on advanced fuel-cycle reactors, and• Limiting US interactions globally(because of the Nuclear NonproliferationAct of 1978)

One impact of these policy decisionsis that several nations weaned themselvesfrom the need for US support during the1980s and 90s. By 1996, fifteen nations haddeveloped some nuclear fuel cycle capa-bilities without any US involvement. Weexpect that countries like Japan, Russia,China, South Korea, Argentina, India, andBrazil could become very competitivesuppliers in the future. (In fact, the next US-built reactor may be a South African design.)Many nations have established networks forfuture nuclear cooperation. Some nationsin these networks have not signed the non-proliferation treaty.

The end of the Cold War has set thestage for the next nuclear era. Other nations– among them some of those formed in theSoviet Union breakup – now stand to reapthe economic benefits of supplying nuclearpower to support industrialization indeveloping nations as energy demand climbsglobally. The growing appeal of nuclearpower as an environmentally safe, secure,and affordable alternative has set the stagefor a new nuclear era. If present trendscontinue, the US may not be in a positionto set foot on this stage, however.

But promising developments havebegun. A new energy policy recognizingnuclear energy’s potential contribution andthe announcement of Nuclear Power 2010initiative (see page 12) by the Bush adminis-tration show renewed interest in the peacefulpossibilities of a new nuclear era. At researchinstitutions like Sandia, there are seeds ofideas that could revolutionize the nuclear

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The growing appeal ofnuclear power as an

environmentally safe,secure, and affordablealternative has set the

stage for a newnuclear era. If present

trends continue, theUS may not be in a

position to set foot onthis stage, however.

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fuel cycle of the futureto achieve betterefficiencies, minimizenuclear wastes andgenerate electricity andtransportation fuels fora cleaner environment.

Demand for Power

Another dynamiccomponent of the worldenergy situation isgrowing demand forpower. As the centuryturned, conventionalwisdom offered a rosyview of available supplyfor the future. As is oftenthe case, that view failedto consider a number ofcomplex, butinterrelated issues.Californians caught a

first glimpse of the dire possibilities broughtby electrical shortages last summer. Russianexperts, faced with aging or non-existentinfrastructure for petroleum supplies believethey face a similar type shortage as theirnation’s economy begins to grow.

Current tensions in the Middle Eastserve as a reminder that nearly 50 percentof the world’s supply of oil comes from oneof the most unstable regions in the world.Among the real costs of our over-relianceon imported oil is a significant share of theUS $300 billion defense budget. Keepinga US naval fleet near the Strait of Hormuz– where some 14 million barrels of oil passdaily – is a part of the cost of a fossil-fueleconomy. This and other energy securityissues will grow in importance as the worldindustrializes during the next fifty years.

In countries like China – a major tradepartner with a 6 to 7 percent annual growthrate – energy demand is rising on a steeplyincreasing slope. By 2020, the InternationalEnergy Outlook projects that demand willincrease by 160 percent in the Asian nations

and by 60 percent in other developingcountries. In the most populous nation inthe world, China’s rapidly increasingeconomy is causing ripples in the energycurrents of the world. To deal with thisdemand, China has embarked upon a numberof approaches. Among them is theconstruction of eight new nuclear powerreactors in addition to three now in operation. China is aiming to be self-sufficient indesign, construction, fuel supply andproduction. Chinese scientists are alsoexploring advanced reactor concepts.

In both the areas of transportation,where petroleum fuels are still predominant,and electricity, the thirst of the developingnations is growing dramatically. Electricityis an essential component of industrializationand has come to be seen as integral to modernlife. Expanding electrical supplies to thosewho lack access is linked to raising livingstandards and has become a high prioritythroughout the world.

Terrorism and Eroding Controls

Despite the end of the Cold War, nuclearweapons continue to pose a security threatto Americans and the world. The powerfulrole of terrorism and the potential for massdestruction all too clear here and abroad.“We will work closely with our coalition todeny terrorists and their state sponsors thematerials, technology and expertise to makeand deliver weapons of mass destruction,”President George W. Bush promised in hisJanuary State of the Union address. With the collapse of the Soviet Union,control over nuclear materials has grown asan issue of importance. Russia, for example,has reduced its available weapons throughCooperative Threat Reduction initiatives.The US has worked with Russia and otherSoviet-bloc nations to prevent the diversionof these materials to terrorists or nationsintent on establishing nuclear weaponprograms. Early this year, US EnergySecretary Spencer Abraham and RussianEnergy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev


China is aiming tobe self-sufficient in

design, construction,and fuel supply andproduction. Chinese

scientists are alsoexploring advanced

reactor concepts.

agreed to expand jointefforts to protect nuclearmaterials. These efforts atbilateral materialsprotection, control andaccountability havebeen successful. TheRussians have alsorealized that within theirold defense complexlies a huge source oftalent, technology andinfrastructure, which –

if properly used – could transition to civiliangoods and services, reducing the worldwidecost of energy. Some other former Sovietrepublics are following this lead. But thetransition of a “secret” infrastructure to acommercial enterprise raises issues of safety,security, and proliferation prevention.Transparency is the key so both technologiesand partnerships will have a critical role. The Center for Strategic and InternationalStudies (CSIS) recently identified two keyareas were action is needed to even betterachieve better materials control:

• Continued improvement in the securityof materials management in the formerSoviet Union to decrease the level of stressin the world community (an area whichthe US is now addressing), and• Bolstering a foundation for USleadership.

US nuclear infrastructure, research anddevelopment, and its core of experiencedpersonnel have been in decline for the pasttwo decades, the CSIS report noted. “TheUS can no longer credibly claim a leadershiprole in nuclear technology or is seen ashaving no interest in the future of nuclearenergy,” the report concluded.

Global Climate Change

The science of global warming took amajor step forward early last year with thepublication of a United Nations and WorldMeteorological Organization report, Climate

Change 2001. The report concluded thatthere is new and stronger evidence that mostof the warming in the past 50 years isattributable to human activities and that theseinfluences will continue to change theatmosphere in the new century. The UnitedNations panel suggested that nuclear power,hydropower and low-carbon energy supplysystems, such as renewable energies, shouldbe put forward to address these problems. The two major uses of energy throughoutthe world are for electrical generation andfor transportation. Striking increases areexpected in both of these areas – on the orderof 60 percent – within the next 20 years. Current surplus nuclear materials in theworld can supply 100 million kilowatts ofelectricity for 20 years. That’s enough topower 100 cities the size of Boston for twodecades. If the surplus materials were usedin high-efficiency advanced plants, twomillion kilowatts of electricity could begenerated for 20 years.

If these materials were recycledthey could:

• Avoid the generation of billions of tonsof air emissions that contribute to globalwarming,• Generate hydrogen efficiently to reducethe amount of petroleum needed fortransportation,• Avoid the import of billions of barrels ofoil, and• Pave the way to provide valuablediagnostic and treatment technologies forthose in need on a worldwide basis.

According to the World NuclearAssociation, new nuclear power plantscoming on line in 2001 avoided 2.4 billiontons of carbon dioxide emissions fromelectrical generation. While coal-firedgeneration plants and other fossil-fuel plantscontribute to the greenhouse gas problem –leading to global warming concerns – nuclearand hydro-powered plants do not directlycontribute any emissions. Emissions from fossil-fuel generation ofelectricity and transportation are alreadycreating health problems in many places, theWorld Health Organization (WHO) notes.

The two majoruses of energy

throughout the worldare for electrical

generation and fortransportation.

Striking increases areexpected in both of

these areas – on theorder of 60 percent –

within the next20 years.

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China, the world’s most populous country,experiences serious air pollution problems. These include greenhouse gases, acid rain,and particulates, tied to its overwhelmingdependence on coal. Seven of the ten mostpolluted cities are in China, WHO reports. Lung cancer, associated with the breathingof coal particulates, has increased. Concerns about internal combustionengines have caused the world’s majorautomobile manufacturers to devotesignificant research resources. Uncertain about long-term supply, severaloil companies have joined in these ventures.While alternative technologies will not beavailable in any meaningful role before about2020, some market shift to lower emissionvehicles can be expected in the next tenyears. Hydrogen is catching on as the cleancombustion fuel of the future. All we needto do is liberate it from our most abundantresources—coal and eventually water. Itturns out that nuclear power may be the bestway to do that efficiently. Until recently, environmental concernsin providing energy had begun to displaceconcerns about energy security in policydecisions. Now we see these concerns asinter-related and equally important to ourvision of a safe and healthy future.

Atoms for Peace and Prosperity

Given this background, the balance ofthis issue of Sandia Technology presents alook at what is possible for the future, andwhere science and technology is taking us.We’ve taken some steps backward, but it’stime to go forward again. The end of the Cold War, and the supportof much of the world in a common frontagainst terrorism have created a new, butperishable opportunity for the next nuclearera. By sharing internationally themanagement of the stresses caused byproliferation, excess nuclear materials,damage to the environment, and terrorism,a new future is possible. It is a futurecharacterized by energy security, non-

proliferation, deterrence to terrorism and ahealthier environment. A half-century after President Eisenhowerposed his vision of “Atoms for Peace,” theUS may at last be in a position to help launcha new, “Atoms for Peace and Prosperity”program in partnership with other nationsaround the world. It a vision of the futurethat could lead to realistic, inexpensive,long-lived energy supplies to eradicate theunderlying seeds of terrorism, covert “swordsinto plowshares,” and provide a basis forlasting peace with prosperity.

Hydrogen is catchingon as the clean com-

bustion fuel of thefuture. All we need todo is liberate it fromour most abundant

resources —coal andeventually water. It

turns out that nuclearpower may be the

best way to do thatefficiently.


Tom Sanders managesSandia’s Nuclear InitiativesDepartment. He has been

involved in studying energysystems, resources and issues

for most of his 18-yearcareer at the Labs.

He may be reached at505/845-8542,or

[email protected]

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• Provide a basis for world peace and prosperity• Reduce tension over access to finite resources• Improve developing world health and well being• International participation in converting “swords to plowshares”• Proliferation resistance through partnerships and transparency

Global Goals

“The United Statesknows that peacefulpower from atomic

energy is no dream ofthe future. That

capability, alreadyproved, is herenow – today.”

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Atoms for PeaceImagine the President of the United

States announcing an important new initiativeto exploit the vast potential of nuclear power.Imagine a speech to an influential group, suchas the United Nations.

The President might couch this visionin terms of achieving world peace bypreventing the spread of nuclear weaponsand providing commercial opportunitiesfor industry:

• “The United States knows that if the fearfultrend of atomic military build-up can bereversed, this greatest of destructive forcescan be developed into a great boon for thebenefit of all mankind.”

• “The United States knows that peacefulpower from atomic energy is no dream ofthe future. That capability, already proved,is here now – today.”

While helping to provide cheap, safepower to the world, the effort would also helpcontinue US influence over nuclear programsaround the globe.

In reality, we need not imagine any ofthese words: President Dwight D. Eisenhowerspoke them before the United Nations GeneralAssembly on December 8, 1953, in his now-famous “Atoms for Peace” speech.

Although much has happened in theintervening 49 years, the words still ring true. A “new era” of nuclear power is approaching. As a nation, Americans have gained a betterunderstanding of the issues involved inmaking peaceful nuclear power a reality. Now,new policies are needed to make Eisenhower’svision a reality.

Although electrical production can varywidely with the type of reactor and operations,on average, a ton of natural uranium willgenerate 45 million kilowatt-hours.

Another way to think about the enormouspotential of nuclear power is to consider thatone cubic inch of uranium has the sameenergy content as 250,000 gallons of gasoline,or 3,000 tons of coal. Faced with the possibility of sharp increasesin demand, shown in the graph, the potentialof nuclear power becomes critical. Even withconservation and improved efficiencieselectrical generation and transportationdemands will expand in much of the world.Use of alternative energy forms can meetsome of the demand. Increased reliance onfossil fuels can have a harmful impact onthe environment.

Potential Demand

U.S./World Electricity Demand

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5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. World

Mill

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Meg

awat

t-ho

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Source: World Energy Council and EIA projections

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Three Sandia executives — Senior VicePresident for Nonproliferation ProgramsRoger Hagengruber, Senior Vice Presidentfor Nuclear Weapons Tom Hunter, and VicePresident for Energy Programs Bob Eagan– have been especially active in this effort. They believe it is time for the US to returnto the field as a key player, after more thantwo decades on the sideline.

The three call their vision the “GlobalNuclear Future.” It’s a concept they havedeveloped over the past three years. It takesinto account nuclear weapons, nuclear energyand issues of nuclear proliferation,deterrence, and nuclear waste management.More than a “solution,” Global NuclearFuture is an “approach” to the issues andopportunities the world now faces.

The effort began with a proposal forglobal nuclear materials management,championed by Hunter and Hagengruber.The concept was to manage weapons-gradenuclear materials, both fuels and dismantledweapon materials, in an environmentallysound and proliferation-resistant way.Recognizing that the role of deterrence – theneed to maintain some level of nuclear

weapon capability – is not likely to go away,Hunter’s concept was expanded. It includesnuclear power as a key in the future energymix and nonproliferation as a long-termnational security goal.

To do this, an approach to nuclearpower is needed that will wring everypossible bit of energy from the uranium fuelsused. In place of the “once through” fuelcycle approach, used in the US, a “holistic”,or integrated approach is being called for.Such an approach involves the open, ortransparent, use and reuse of fuel in a waythat can be tracked and managed throughoutthe life cycle of the materials. The transparentaspect of the fuel management helps alleviateproliferation concerns. Tracking or managingthroughout the life cycle makes maximumuse of every atom of these valuable materials. The Department of Energy (DOE) isbeginning to address these issues and madea significant step forward with SecretarySpencer Abraham’s announcement of newnuclear initiatives (see page 12) to foster aprocess that will encourage privateinvestment in nuclear power, improve reactordesigns to make better use of fuel, and

As the world findsitself on the verge ofa nuclear renaissance,the US struggles withits role in this global

movement. As anational security

laboratory, with a longhistory of integratedsystems experiencein energy, weapons

and environment,Sandia NationalLaboratories is

prepared to play arole. Anticipating this

opportunity, its topleaders have sketchedout a concept of the

nuclear future and thepart the US can play.


Vision

Bob Eagan, Roger Hagengruber, and Tom Hunter

Other nations mustalso be recognized inlooking to the future.

“Many emergingeconomies, such asChina and India, are

going to have verysubstantial needs forenergy. They face the

problem that theworld faces, which

is that they haveabundant supplies ofcoal, but it produces

a lot of carbonand pollution,”

Hagengruber says.“Nuclear energy will

be attractive for them. We can’t simply walkaway from that fact.”

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ultimately return the US to a key role in thenuclear future.

As nuclear investment dried up duringthe 1980s and 1990s, so did US influenceover non-weapons nuclear activities.Observes Hagengruber, “It leads you to askif the national reprocessing policy producedthe desired benefit in controllingproliferation? The argument we’re makingis that an alternative policy about nuclearenergy and reprocessing would be morebeneficial. The additional problems ofpotential energy shortages, global warmingand energy security only add greaterurgency.”

The core thesis of the Global NuclearFuture concept is that “the US must engageall the elements, including a proactive policyfor nuclear energy to achieve peace andprosperity in the world,” Hagengruberexplains. A big piece of the success is thefull engagement of Russia, as well, he adds.

“I don’t think you can think about aGlobal Nuclear Future without recognizing

the Russian situation. Theyare still advocates for a broadspectrum of nuclear activities,including power generation,”Hunter agrees. Russia has thedesire and the capability topromote nuclear powergeneration for its own usesand to serve the developingnations of the world. Theycontinue to be a majorweapons state, as well. “It’sclear that we need to havesome cooperation with themin a way that they aresignificant contributors tohow our plan shapes up.”Hunter cites the recentSandia-Kurchatov agreementto develop a joint paper onthe global future of nuclearenergy (see page 14) as an“important step.”

“It’s interesting that inRussia plutonium is viewedas an extremely valuable

national asset,” Eagan notes. “In this countrymany view it as intolerably bad. We actuallythink the Russians have it right.”

Other nations must also be recognizedin looking to the future. “Many emergingeconomies, such as China and India, aregoing to have very substantial needs forenergy. They face the problem that the worldfaces, which is that they have abundantsupplies of coal, but it produces a lot ofcarbon and pollution,” Hagengruber says.“Nuclear energy will be attractive for them.We can’t simply walk away from that fact.”

“The time is right for America to revisitnuclear energy – only now with a newexpanded sense of what it means in light ofSeptember 11 and looming economic andenvironmental developments in the world,”Eagan says. Eagan notes that President Bushand Vice President Cheney have expressedsupport for pragmatic approaches to solvingthese problems. “I think there’s a highprobability we’ll get a favorable hearing onthe Global Nuclear Future concept from the

Predicted Changesin Use of Nuclear

Power, 2000and 2020

0 2 4 6 8 10

2000

2020

IndustrialCountries

DevelopingCountries

IndustrialCountries

DevelopingCountries

9.5%

1.2%

1.3%

5.9%

Percent of total energy consumed

Projections from the International Energy Outlook show a pessimistic futurefor nuclear power, as its use declines in the industrial nations and levels

remain flat in developing countries. New approaches are needed toencourage use of nuclear power.

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environmental community, also, as we lookat the issue of balancing greenhouse gasemissions with using nuclear power.”

All three vice presidents have stressedthe role that government must play, leadingto a new generation of nuclear energy. “Ithink we in the national laboratories shouldbe seen as willing to engage in the dialogue,support policy makers and provide factualobjective information,” Hunter says. “The challenge is to realize that prolifer-ation prevention and secure disposition arewell within the capabilities of research,development and application in the foreseeablefuture,” said Eagan. “Addressing the issuesof public trust and capital costs remainsignificant challenges, but ones that can andmust be addressed.”

“The nuclear community has a uniqueopportunity today to work for globalmanagement of nuclear deterrents, nuclearmaterials, and nuclear power,” Hagengruberbelieves. “It is the scientists and engineersresponsible for the stewardship of the world’snuclear stockpiles, who are responsible forhelping to control the spread of nuclear armsand weapons-grade materials, and for findingways to dispose of nuclear waste safely andin a way protective of our environment,”he concludes.

Based on thevision outlined in

the accompanyingstory, here are some

of the possibleingredients for a

Global Nuclear Futurethat includes the USin a meaningful way:


• Creation of economic and regulatoryclimates that will (1) recognize growingUS energy demands and (2) support a50 percent share of US electric demandsupplied from nuclear power sourcesby 2050.

• Assisting Russia with development ofa safe exportable reactor in partnershipwith Western industry. At the sametime, partner with other weapon statesto export nuclear reactors and materialsfor energy production and public healthapplications.

• Including cradle-to-grave accountabilityfor fuel supply as a part of the reactor-export arrangement. This meansproviding nuclear power to developingcountries while supplier nations maintainresponsibility for nuclear materials.

• Recognizing that civilian reprocessingof uranium and military weaponsreductions create surplus plutonium.Move the focus from reducing the supplyof this critical element to increasing andencouraging its use in energyproduction.

By joining with other nations todevelop a more efficient material and fuelcycle, nuclear power can be shared withthe developing world through the use ofreactor lease agreements and cradle-to-grave fuel supply contracts. Suchagreements enable non-nuclear nationsto have access to inexpensive power andshare in the consumption of nuclearwarheads and byproduct materials leftover from the Cold War.

“The opportunityis now and it is

perishable.”

A Recipe for the Nuclear Future

The nuclear fuelcycle is a series of

processes involved inthe production of

electricity fromuranium in nuclear

power reactors.

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the NuclearFuel Cycle

Uranium, which is relatively plentifulin the world, is mined and milled to extractits elemental form from uranium ores.Processing — called enrichment — isneeded to concentrate the uranium. Fuelis made from ceramic pellets of uraniumoxide, baked a high temperature. Thepellets are encased in metal tubes asfuel rods and arranged into assemblies,or bundles, for use in a reactor. In light-water reactors — prevalenttoday for commercial electrical power –the fuel generates heat inside the reactorto produce steam and drive a turbine. Anisotope of uranium, U-238, in the fuel isturned into plutonium during thisoperation. Plutonium and other fissionfragments, formed within the fuel ,increase over a year or two of use. Thenthe fuel is described as “spent.” Recycling separates spent fuel intouranium, plutonium, and other usefulproducts. The uranium can be reused asfuel. Although the process is more costly,the plutonium can be mixed with uraniumto create a mixed oxide (MOX) fuel forreactors designed to use it. The use of recycling and MOXtechnologies describes “closed” fuelcycles. If the fuel rods go directly to

storage and disposal, the cycle is called“open” or “once through.” Transmutation is the altering of long-lived isotopes to short-lived ones. Thiscreates other useful products (see page13) or reduces toxicity of wastes. At the present, there are no approveddisposal facilities for spent fuel in the US.The Waste Isolation Pilot Project in NewMexico accepts some processing wastes.Most spent fuel is stored at or near reactorsites in cooling ponds or in specialcontainers. Efforts are under way toestablish the DOE’s Yucca MountainProject in Nevada as a permanent USrepository. Permanent geologic disposalis preferred by a number of othernuclear nations. The events of September 11, 2001,created a call for spent fuel to be movedto a safe permanent location away frompopulation centers. Until a decision canbe made on a permanent storage site,however, the fuel cycle can’t becompleted.

This diagram illustrates key parts of the nuclear fuel cycle. Arrowsrepresent another key aspect - transportation.

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Secretary of EnergySpencer Abraham has

announced majorDepartment of Energy

initiatives aimed atfostering an expanded

role for nuclearenergy and strength-

ening America’senergy security. The

initiatives supportthe National Energy

Plan unveiled in May2001 by President

George W. Bush.


The view of nuclear power as tooexpensive, too risky and too unreliable isbeing overturned, the secretary told membersof the Global Nuclear Energy Summitmeeting in Washington, D.C. Power plantefficiencies have increased to 90 percent ofcapacity – up dramatically from the 1970sand 1980s.

A key to these efficiencies has been bettermanagement of the plants, which havesharply rebounded in value as theseimproving records of uptime have broughtdown generation costs, making them looklike bargain power sources. Reactorrefueling, once an operation requiringmonths, now can be done safely in aboutthree weeks, Abraham noted. An industrythat looked nearly moribund a few yearsago is now anticipating some applicationsfor getting Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC) approval to build new plants. At the same time, safety records haveimproved. Public trust has risen to the pointthat one recent public opinion poll revealedthat 65 percent of the American publicbelieves in the use of nuclear power as apart of a power mix for the future, Abrahamsaid. This safety record has been temperedby “the realities of life since September 11”,the Secretary noted. Concerns that powerplants could become terrorist targets arelegitimate. “Both NRC and the International

Atomic Energy Agency are working hardto address these new challenges.” The Secretary called for a number ofactions to further the role of nuclear poweras a safe, environmentally friendly fuel:

• Extend the Price Anderson Act. This actis a promise made by the government toensure any victim of an accident involvingnuclear power is justly compensated.“Only in such an environment can weexpect investors to risk the capital for anexpansion of nuclear power.”

• Establish a permanent geologic repositoryat Yucca Mountain in Nevada – “ascientifically sound and suitable location”for the nation’s nuclear wastes. This willprovide a secure and environmentallysuitable solution for relocation of spentfuel assemblies, now in storage nearreactors around the country.

• Remove barriers to locating new plants,licensing them, and advancing nuclearpower technologies available for use in theUS. To tackle these issues, SecretaryAbraham announced a public-private part-nership to enable “a new US nuclear powerplant to be built and brought on-line bythe end of this decade.”

Nuclear Power 2010 is an initiative thatwill explore sites that could host new nuclearplants, demonstrate NRC processes to makelicensing of new plants more efficient, andconduct research to make the safest andmost advanced plant technologies available.In addition to a proposed $38 million budget,Abraham called for strong internationalcooperation to leverage the US funding. “Together we can establish a clear visionof the future and carry out the work neededto realize that vision,” he said.

Nuclear Power 2010

90%

80%

70%

60%

3

2

11980 1990 2000

Gene

ratin

g Co

sts

(¢/k

wh)

Ope

ratin

g Ca

paci

tyImproved US Nuclear Plant Efficiencies

Source: Nuclear Energy Institute

13


Often unannounced,and usually unappre-ciated, the atom has

quietly become a partof our lives during the

past 50 years. Inaddition to thegeneration of

electrical power andits use in weaponry,the uses of radiation

have impacted avariety of human

activities.

The so-called “peaceful atom” isused to better control applications offertilizer and to cut harvest losses causedby insects. Spoilage of harvested foodshas been sharply reduced by foodirradiation technologies. Radioactivityalso has uses in measuring the extentof underground water resources. In medicine, isotopes are used inboth diagnosis and treatment. Doctorsalso sterilize medical equipment, band-ages, ointments, powders, and otherpreparations using gamma radiation. Late last year radiation was used tosterilize mail and to kill bio-terrorismagents, such at anthrax. Other uses include environmentaltracers and instruments to gauge thick-ness and density of materials. One ofthe most common radioisotopes todayis used in smoke detectors. Thesecontain a small amount of americium-241, a decay product of plutonium-241originating in nuclear reactors.

Some radioactive materials emitsufficient energy as they decay to beconsidered as power sources. Thesematerials can power navigational aids,satellites, and human heart pacemakers. Finally, the use of radioactivematerials to date the age of rocks andother materials has made a significantcontrbution in the sciences ofarchaeology, anthropology and geology.

Sources: World Nuclear Association, NuclearEnergy Institute

the PeacefulATOM

14

Scientists at SandiaNational Laboratoriesand at the KurchatovInstitute, in Moscow,

are working toprepare a joint paperon the global future

of nuclear energy asa point of departurefor policy makers in

Russia and theUnited States.


After discussing a variety of nuclearpower issues on a video link in mid-February,a group of Sandia executives, including LabsPresident C. Paul Robinson, fashioned theagreement with their Kurchatov Institutecounterparts. Joining Sandia executives inAlbuquerque for the occasion was KurchatovInstitute President Evgeny P. Velikhov. “It is now appropriate that we have arevival that addresses energy, economy,ecology connected with straight thinking inthe U.S. and Russia about counter-proliferationand non-proliferation,” Velikhov said. He saidSandia and the Kurchatov Institute are wellmatched, because both have workedhistorically to move from scientific discoveryto solutions useful to society. The two institutions agreed to develop an“executive summary” as a first step, includingproposals for development of nuclear powerbased on points of agreement. A more detailedeffort – making use of the strengths of thetwo research facilities – would follow. “I think it’s important that we look moreholistically at the problem of power

generation,” Robinson toldhis Russian counterpartsduring the video link-up.“Working together, can leadto a solution.” Bob Eagan, Sandia VicePresident for Energy andCritical Infrastructure,described a number of areaswhere cooperation with theKurchatov Institute can bebeneficial. These includeeconomic modeling andfusion research, he said. “Wesee a lot of similaritiesbetween our vision of a globalnuclear future and where Dr.

Velikhov wants to go,”Eagan said. Velikhov, who has advised Soviet PremierMikhail Gorbachev and now Russian PresidentVladimir Putin, spent two days at Sandia,where he was briefed on a variety of tech-nologies relevant to the future of nuclearenergy. On his second day, he spoke forabout an hour with a group of high-rankingSandia executives on issues of nuclear powerand the future. The video-link discussionfollowed his talk. “I think this is an opportune time for usto work in parallel to understand the energyfield. We have good agreement in oureconomic models, although there are somedifferences,” Velikhov said. Russia would liketo make use of its materials, manpower andexperience to become a leader in developingglobal nuclear power. Velikhov said hisgovernment is taking important steps that willaid joint-nation collaboration.

Russia and U.S.Working Together

Sandia President C. Paul Robinson and Executive Vice President JoanWoodard with Evgeny Velikhov (center) President of Russia’s

Kurchatov Institute.

15


The survey — conducted by BiscontiResearch, Inc. — found higher support thanever before for:

• Favoring the use of nuclear power to provideelectricity (65 percent),

• Believing nuclear energy should play animportant future role (74 percent), and

• Finding nuclear power plantsto be safe (66 percent.)

“Support for nuclear energyhistorically has increased withdisruptions in the Middle Eastand upturns in patrioticsentiment,” said Ann StoufferBisconti, who conducted thesurvey for the Nuclear EnergyInstitute. Although concernabout energy shortages and pricespikes earlier in 2001 haddeclined, “the public still believesthat more electricity will beneeded as our population grows,”she said.

Among other trends reported in the surveywere:

• Growing agreement (59 percent) that theUS should build more nuclear power plantsin the future,

• Agreement that it is acceptable to build morenuclear power plants at the nearest existingplant sites (66 percent),

• Strong support for renewing the operatinglicenses for existing nuclear plants(84 percent), and

• Support for keeping the option to build morenuclear power plants in the future(72 percent.)

A Shift in Public OpinionRecord Numbers Favor Nuclear Energy

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

65%Favor the

use ofnuclear

energy asone of theways toprovide

electricity

74%Believenuclearenergy

should playan important

role

66%Find nuclearpower plants

safe

Record Levels of Support in 2001

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

84%

72%

59%

Support LicenseRenewal

Keep the Optionto Build New

Nuclear Plants

Definitely BuildNew Nuclear

Plants

Percent Agree

Energy Future

While many economists thesedays are being asked to provide apreview of next week’s economy,Sandia’s Arnie Baker is taking a longerview. Baker, chief economist at Sandia,has led development of two importanteconomic tools to help decision-makers inthe future energy and environmental debate. One tool—the US Energy and GreenhouseGas model (USEGM)—looks at US energyuse by economic sector and fuel, as well asgreenhouse gases. It runs possible scenarios20 years into the future. Another – called theGlobal Nuclear Future model – looks atcommercial nuclear power, fuel cycles,materials in weapons and dismantledweapons, and the economics of five globalregions. It projects 50 years into the future. Baker’s work has been praised by energyexperts and will be the basis of some near-term cooperation between US and Russiannuclear power researchers. (See page 14.)The international team hopes to use Baker’smodels to better understand the valuablefuture role of nuclear power in maintainingglobal economic growth and the environment. The USEGM uses laptop computertechnologies to calculate carbon emissionsfrom fossil fuels and track oil imports. It usesdata from the Department of Energy’s EnergyInformation Administration and offers usersthe option of changing the energy mix usedin the transportation, electricity, industrial,residential and/or commercial sectors. Userscan vary economic growth rates, prices forpetroleum or other fuel types, and energyefficiency in this model. “The idea is forpolicy makers, students, or others to plug indata and sit around a conference table withthe computer and a projector and discussalternative impacts,” Baker said. “There is historical evidence to suggestthat the world may move to a less carbonintensive energy future,” Baker said, referring

to past shiftsfrom wood, to coal

(about 1900) and then to oil (in the 1970s.)“Perhaps oil will be overtaken by natural gasand in turn by nuclear, renewables and zerocarbon energy sources. Sound policy andtechnology development choices can acceleratethese transitions.”

The Global Nuclear Futures model addsmore detail in the nuclear power supply sector.It allows input as to wastes at the end of thefuel cycle from commercial reactors and weaponconversion to energy. It addresses howeconomics in the US, other industrializedcountries, China, the former Soviet states, andother developing nations may impact the globalpower, transportation and other energy demandpicture. Users can set shares for various powersources and economic growth levels and modelcarbon emissions, other environmental effluents,and spent nuclear fuels. The model tracksmethane, nitrous and sulfur oxides, particulates,volatile organic compounds and mercury, amongother environmental effluents.

“Present trends would indicate that the energyintensity of economic growth in the developingworld will make those nations and China thelargest carbon emitters,” Baker said. “This is atool that will give people a common referencepoint to focus their discussions.”

International Security

Sandia’s International Security ProgramsCenter is playing a role in the Global NuclearFuture by reducing the threat of nuclearweapons and bringing technologies to bearthat help nations manage their energy futures.

“While others look at safety, environment,and defense aspects of nuclear energy, ourfocus is on the nonproliferation part of theequation,” explained Dori Ellis, centerdirector. The center’s activities includecooperative programs and efforts to secure

16

Seeds of theFutureS A N D I A T E C H N O L O G Y

special nuclear material at weaponproduction and storage facilitiesin Russia and other former SovietUnion states.

Through the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA),Sandia also supports efforts tosafeguard nuclear materialsworldwide, by preventingcountries from diverting civilnuclear materials to militarypurposes. These efforts supportthe provisions of the Nonprolifer-ation Treaty, under which nuclearweapon states have pledged tohelp others pursue peaceful usesof nuclear energy in return forpledges from the non-nuclearweapons states not to developnuclear weapons. Through theIAEA, Sandia is providingtechnologies, such as videocameras at facilities, tags and sealsfor nuclear materials containers,and other monitoring technologies

In another project Sandia isworking with the RussianFederation to provide alternativesfor weapon scientists as Russia

downsizes its weapons program and spins upcommercially viable enterprises. “We areinvolved in the National Nuclear SecurityAgency- funded Russian Transition Assistanceprogram,” explained Larry Walker, managerfor Cooperative International Programs. “Wego to their nuclear cities and bring Americanbusinessmen who are willing to invest inRussia, and match them with scientists.” Theprogram also helps with direct investments inbusiness infrastructures as well. You have tohave banking and Internet connections to workin a competitive modern world,” said Walker.

National Power Grid

Question: What has 11,000 generatingfacilities, 200,000 miles of high-voltagetransmission line and thousands of substations? Answer: a complex, national power grid.It’s a grid that is really three regional powerareas, each uniquely developed over the years,according to David Robinson, of Sandia’s Risk

and Reliability Analysis Department. “Eachof the three regions is pretty autonomous,”Robinson explained. “Each reacts to failureevents in unique ways.”

With few exceptions, inter-regional powerlines “simply don’t exist,” David explains, butmajor energy problems in one area will impactothers as well. “The movement towardderegulation, with power companies operatingcloser to acceptable reserve power marginsand emphasis on cost-effective generation, hascreated economic ties between the regions.“The US economy is very energy oriented andproblems in one area will cascade quickly intothe other regions,” Robinson explained.

Sandia lends its systems analyses abilitiesto this transmission system in a number ofways. Labs’ researchers in New Mexico andCalifornia study the security of communicationsbetween control systems, the distribution ofpower generating facilities and how it couldbe improved, and system vulnerabilities.

Studying the vulnerabilities of the massivegrid became the predominant focus in the daysafter September 11, Robinson said. Potentialattacks on the system have long beenrecognized to have implications to the economyand national security, he noted. A recent studyfocused specifically on nuclear plants and theimplications of the loss of one or more of theseplants from the power grid.

New Regulatory Approaches

Sandia’s decades-long experience in riskassessment studies for the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission (NRC) is now leading to a newrole for the Labs -- suggesting new approachesfor regulating reactors. This work applies tomodifying existing regulations as well asshaping regulations that will be needed fornew reactors now in design.

“The NRC has the job of preparing for andlicensing new nuclear power plants,” said AllenCamp, Deputy Director of the Nuclear andRisk Technologies Center. “We are helpingwith what we call ‘risk-informed regulation,’which is a way to focus on the most importantaspects of design and operations in terms ofpublic safety.”

Potential attacks onthe system have long

been recognized tohave implications to

the economy andnational security, he

noted. A recent studyfocused specifically onnuclear plants and the

implications of theloss of one or more of

these plants fromthe power grid.

17


18

Risk-informed regulation combines theresults from risk assessments with soundengineering practices to develop regulationsthat ensure a cost-effective approach. “After20 years of research, we’ve gained a clearerunderstanding of how accidents begin andprogress. We know which requirements makea plant safe and which one’s don’t. A risk-informed approach allows the NRC to relaxrequirements that aren’t important and focuson those that are,” Camp explained.

Sandia began conducting risk assessmentwork for the NRC in the mid-1970s. Theserisk assessments provide evidence to the NRCthat power plants are meeting the goal of notexposing the public to significant additionalrisk. The evidence shows that nuclear energycontinues to be a very safe method forgenerating electricity. Risk assessments haveshown plant workers areas where improvementwas needed and it has shown areas whereregulations may be overly conservative.

Following the Three Mile Island incidentin 1979, NRC regulations became extremelyburdensome, building many safety layers intoplant designs. In some cases, this caused plantpersonnel to spend time training for extremelyunlikely accidents instead of events that posedmore of a threat to the public. Following twodecades of visits by Sandia researchers topower plants, testing, and risk assessmentstudy, the Labs now provide a uniqueperspective to NRC on nuclear power safety.

Earlier this year, Sandia presented technicaldocumentation to the NRC on alternativeregulations for emergency core cooling. Thesecooling systems provide water in light waterreactor designs in the even of a loss of normalcoolants. Jeff LaChance, one of the researchersinvolved in the study, estimates consumerscould save as much as $1 billion with improvedregulations, which would allow plants to runat higher power levels, while reducingoperations costs.

The potential for savings using risk-informed approaches are even greater inadvanced reactor designs, where improvementscan be made during design. Sandia issupporting the Department of Energy’s NuclearEnergy Research Initiative as part of a teamto develop risk-informed approaches foradvanced designs. The team involves national

laboratory, university and industry players,Camp said, and has suggested some generalapproaches. The next step will be to work withNRC on a regulatory approach for the advanceddesigns. That work is just getting under way,as researchers look at the options of re-writingthe existing regulations or adapting them tobetter fit the advanced designs.

Sandia continues to shine in the venue ofrisk assessment work as well. Risk studies onthe pebble bed modular and advanced gasturbine reactor designs are under way at theLabs. (See page 26)

Nuclear Waste Management

The Yucca Mountain site in Nevada isscientifically sound and suitable for develop-ment as the nation’s long-term geologicalrepository for nuclear waste. That is therecommendation made in January by Secretaryof Energy Spencer Abraham to PresidentGeorge W. Bush.

Although the state of Nevada is challengingthe recommendation, the move signals thenext step in a process that has already takenseveral decades. Congress will ultimatelydecide the fate of the Yucca Mountain project.

“Because of widespread public concernabout nuclear waste, there have been no easysolutions to the tasks of packaging, transport-ing, and ultimately disposing of the nuclearwaste and spent nuclear fuel now temporarilystored in literally hundreds of locationsthroughout the United States,” explainedDennis Berry, director for Sandia’s NuclearWaste Management program. His organizationbrings to bear the capabilities of the Labs onnuclear waste disposal problems, often deemedthe Achilles’ heel of nuclear power.

Sandia has participated in scientific researchto validate the effectiveness of geologic wastestorage at Yucca Mountain and at the WasteIsolation Pilot Plant, near Carlsbad, NewMexico. Sandia has taken the view that wastedisposal must be safe and based on scienti-fically sound principles that withstand thescrutiny of both regulators and the public,Berry said. The Labs have a history ofsuccessful work in cleaning up environmentalsites and of working with regulatory agencies,citizen groups, scientific oversight groups and

The potential forsavings using risk-

informed approachesare even greater in

advanced reactordesigns, where

improvements can bemade during design.Sandia is supporting

the Department ofEnergy’s NuclearEnergy Research

Initiative as part of ateam to develop risk-informed approachesfor advanced designs.


The Yucca Mountain site in Nevada

other stakeholders onwaste issues.

Lessons learned from theseefforts have given Sandiastature in the areas of geo-logical analyses, contaminanttransport, barrier effective-ness, and risk assessment inthe US and around the world.As part of this, Sandia isactively engaged withscientists and governmentofficials from Japan, Taiwan,and other countries to sharetechnical knowledge aboutthe best ways to dispose ofnuclear waste.

Test to Failure

Although much of Sandia’s nuclear powerresearch is in the form of analyses andmodeling, the Labs also offer the capabilitiesfor real world testing of plant components andsystems. Researchers are presently polishinga final report to an organization representingeight nations on series of nuclear plant tests.The tests subjected scale model pressurevessels – the heart of a nuclear reactor – tohigh pressures and temperatures anticipatedin severe accident conditions. The result: a better understanding of thematerials properties and structural factors atwork in a severe reactor accident. The pressure vessel is designed to withstandextremely high internal pressures andtemperatures. Between June 2000 and July2001, Sandia engineers completed a series offour tests to provide data to computer modelers.In the fall of 2001, an international teamreviewed the first test and assessed the abilityof several programs and modeling techniquesto predict the vessel’s response to conditions. In a 1/5th-scale test conducted in October2000, a lower-head assembly was heated to1880oF, began to deform, stretching like aballoon, and finally failed with a loud bang ata temperature of 2780oF. “These tests are veryimpressive to watch,” said Sandia test engineerLarry Humphries. “The strength of the steeleven under these conditions is remarkable.”

The data from the work will help improvemodeling of failures. This, in turn, will helpoperators at nuclear plants to better understandwhat actions they can take to allay an accident.It will help improve designs of newer reactorparts, as well. The tests were done for the Organizationfor Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD), representing Germany, France, theCzech Republic, Belgium, Spain, Sweden,Finland, and the US. The Nuclear RegulatoryCommission (NRC), which had funded eightearlier tests of this type and the Departmentof Energy provided US funding. In another example of internationalcooperation, Japan has partnered with Sandiaand the NRC on a number of nuclear powerplant safety projects in the past 20 years. A10-year program with the Nuclear PowerCorporation of Japan to study the response ofnuclear plant containment structures topressures beyond design ranges was recentlyculminated with the failure test of a one-quarter-scale model. Previous programs haveincluded a spectacular F-4 Phantom rocketsled crash test.

Weapons to Energy

Sandia is playing a key security role intwo major efforts to reduce weapons materialsin Russia. These programs are convertingweapons materials – plutonium and highlyenriched uranium – to use as fuel for thegeneration of electricity. Researchers inSandia’s International Security Center aredeveloping plans to assure the US that theplutonium and uranium being disposed of isfrom Russian weapons and is being handledappropriately, explained Larry Walker, managerfor Cooperative International Programs. The two programs:

• In 2001, the Department of Energy (DOE)announced an agreement with the Russianfederation, to dispose of 34 tons of surplusUS plutonium by making it intocommercial reactor fuel. The Russiangovernment agreed to do the same.

• Earlier the US agreed to purchase 500 tonsof highly enriched uranium from theRussians. As part of this agreement, theRussians will “down-blend” the weapons-grade uranium to produce material suitable

The data from thework will help improvemodeling of failures.

This, in turn, will helpoperators at nuclear

plants to betterunderstand what

actions they can taketo allay an accident. It

will help improvedesigns of newer

reactor parts, as well.

19


Richard Simpson, of Sandia'sApplied Nuclear Technologies

department, measures a weld in a1/5 scale model pressure vessel

lower head assembly.

20

for reactors, but not for weapons. A UScompany will buy the down-blended fuel.

In the case of both agreements, Sandiahas developed monitoring plans to assesscompliance. Although some controversy hassurrounded the plans, the work is importantto efforts to reduce proliferation and bringsome economic stability to Russia, governmentproject managers maintain.

The DOE announced early this year thatit would dispose of the US plutonium byconverting it into a mixed oxide (MOX) form.The oxide can be used in commercial reactors,although some of the plutonium will have tobe further refined to meet MOX standards forpurity. Even with the oxide conversion andpurification costs, the MOX plan will save anestimated $2 billion over earlier plans, whichcalled for immobilization of some of theplutonium in glass. It will also put theplutonium to work providing electricity toAmericans instead of keeping it in storage.

Controversy has surrounded the MOXapproach to plutonium disposal and theproposed down-blending of the Russianuranium. Some groups fear these measurescould serve to legitimize reprocessing and re-use of plutonium, which in the long run couldmake weapons grade materials more readilyavailable to terrorists or other nations wantingto start weapons programs. Another key part of the Sandia job has beento design a monitoring approach that willassure the US that the amounts of Russianuranium and plutonium processed are accurate.

Proliferation Scorecard

Researchers from Sandia’s non-proliferationand nuclear energy organizations are workingto identify how different technologies in thefuel cycle impact the potential for the spreadof weapons. If technologies have the impact of makingweapon’s grade nuclear materials moreavailable — thus making the creation of newweapons more likely — the team will assigna higher number to that impact. If the tech-nology or activity has the impact of making itless likely that additional nuclear weapons canbe built, it will be judged more proliferation

resistant and assigned a relatively lowernumber. “We are looking at the fuel cycle frommining through reprocessing, through whatgets buried in a once-through fuel cycle ascompared to one where there is recycling andreuse,” explained Gary Rochau, manager ofSandia’s Modeling and Analysis departmentand team leader. Using laboratory funding theteam will look at nuclear energy processesused around the world. “We want to look atthe Japanese breeder and French mixed oxideprocess and the Russian high temperature gastechnologies as well as our own,” he said. The team will use a process called riskinformed proliferation analysis. This involvesa detailed knowledge of the various processesand the risks associated with them. It thenmakes use of this knowledge to calculate“proliferation scores” for the various activities.

License Renewal

To achieve energy independence and meetAmerica’s goals for a cleaner environment,renewal of licenses at many of the nation’sexisting nuclear power plants becomes acritical issue.

Presently nuclear plants are licensed for40 years, with the option for a 20-yearextension. The first US license renewalapplication was filed in 1998 and approvedby the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)in 2000. A half-dozen other applications forrenewal have followed. Experts expectsomething like a third of the nation’s 103power plant operators to file for renewal bynext year, with more to follow.

The NRC, recognizing likely problemsthat come with an aging group of reactors, ismoving cautiously in this arena. Sandia ishelping the NRC address these issues withresearch in several areas. (See page 17.) Oneexample is a project under way to evaluateconcerns about plant pressure vessels. RobertWaters, manager for Risk and ReliabilityAnalysis Department at Sandia, explained thatpressure vessels could be subjected to severestresses in the case of certain operationaldisruptions. An example would be theinadequate or inappropriate use of emergency

To achieve energyindependence and

meet America’s goalsfor a cleaner environ-

ment, renewal oflicenses at many

of the nation’sexisting nuclear

power plantsbecomes a

critical issue.


Sandia is inthe process of taking

an established soft-ware product used by

the nuclear powerindustry to a

new level.

21


cooling procedures, whichprovide cool water in the placeof lost hot water or steam withina pressure vessel.

Because the vessels areoperated at high pressures andtemperatures, the potential forcracks or damage are of concernand could limit the life of a plant,Waters said. “We are nowstudying this problem from a riskpoint of view.” The study,expected to be complete by latesummer, will help the NRC andplant operators to bettercommunicate on this issue.“Human operators at the plantshave a key role in thesesituations,” Waters said. Bylooking at what can happen, howit is likely to happen, andconsequences, in a riskassessment process, Sandia canassist NRC in proposing effectivetraining at the sites to preventthe scenarios where pressurevessel damage might occur.

A key to the Labs’ success inrisk assessment is Sandia’s real-

world experiments and the subsequent datadeveloped from them, explained Waters. “Whenyou do a risk assessment, you need good datafor the scenarios you are considering,” heexplained. “When good data aren’t available, experiments often offer the best way to obtainthe needed data. Sandia has done these kindsof experiments for years - most recently thequarter-scale containment vessel tests conductedthrough the (DOE- and NRC-sponsored) Inter-national Nuclear Safety department.”

MELCOR

To accomplish this, researchers are updatingspecial computer software that models thecomplex physical phenomena that occur in anuclear power plant accident. Distributed todomestic and foreign power plant operators ona compact disk, the software — namedMELCOR — incorporates 20 years of nuclearsafety research. The effort to expand analysiscapabilities to advanced designs is expected to

take about two years.“Our goal is to look at advanced reactor

designs from a safety viewpoint before webuild them,” explains Gary Rochau, managerof Sandia’s Modeling and Analysis Department.“We also want to look at mixed oxide issuesto help better utilize the plutonium and otherspent fuel products from reactors. This is ahuge step for the NRC in working to knowwhat to expect with the advanced reactors.”

Sandia issued its most recent version ofMELCOR late last year. Using the latestexperimental data, the software is designed tohelp regulators and utilities define operationalmargins of safety. “It will allow them to revisitsome of the perhaps overly conservativeregulations…and refocus on areas where greatersafety precautions might make a difference,”said Randy Gauntt, Sandia project leader.

MELCOR models the whole power plantfrom cooling systems and control wiring tophysical interactions between the nuclear fuelrods and their pressure vessels. A user definesdetails of a plant’s design and equipment andspecifies an initiating event – such as a breakin a cooling system pipe or power outage.MELCOR calculates a play-by-play summaryof the accident, based on experimental data,past experiences and probabilities.

Sandia began work on MELCOR in 1982and made its first release in 1989. Four updatedversions have been released through the NRC.

Modeling Many Factors

The cooling tower for a nuclear power planthas become a symbol to many Americans ofthat form of energy. To researchers, trying todetermine how plants can be constructed onschedule and on budget, the abandoned plantmay be an even more powerful symbol. “I havevisited abandoned, unfinished plants, whereutility companies have just walked away fromhuge investments, in the billions of dollars,”said Gary Rochau, manager of Sandia’sModeling and Analysis department. “Unlesswe can show that nuclear is profitable toinvestors, nuclear power won’t happen.” Rochau is involved in a multi-organization,multi-disciplinary approach to try to overcomesome of the obstacles faced in building newnuclear power plants. “We have looked at all

Randy Cole (left) and Randy Gauntt,of Sandia's Modeling and Analysis

department, with copies ofMELCOR 1.8.5. One-quarter scalemodel containment vessel (back-

ground) was tested to failure in2001 to gather experimental data.

22

the reactor plants built to date and watched howthe time from start to operations increaseddramatically with the creation of environmentaland other regulations in the 1970s. Three tofive years is a reasonable period for investors,but when the period of construction islengthened, it is no longer cost effective.” Newlaws created regulatory obstacles that slowedconstruction, but they also opened avenuesallowing nuclear power opponents to filelitigation. New regulatory processes are nowin place, but they have never been used. Now a Sandia team is working withresearchers from Stanford and Texas A&Muniversities and architectural engineers fromStone and Webster, to study the process oflocating and constructing new power plants.The team includes environmental engineers,regulators, social and political scientists andnuclear engineers. The goal is to visualizeimpacts and address them in advance. Part ofthe effort will involve a charette approach,Rochau said. A charette is a meeting whereinterested stakeholders meet well ahead ofconstruction to discuss how all of the variousinterests in a project can be addressed. “There are ways you can reduce plant coststhrough smart construction, but if you can’tassure a process that can be completed in areasonable amount of time and at reasonablecost, nuclear power is likely to fail to becompetitive with other power generation

technologies like natural gas,” said Rochau.The team’s objective will be to create a modelincorporating environmental, social andregulatory impacts of building a new plant. Themodel should be available within the next threeyears to assist in the deployment of theDepartment of Energy’s Nuclear Power 2010initiative (see page 12) to construct and operatea new US power plant in the next decade.

Fission Battery

The fission battery is a marked departurefrom traditional reactor concepts, where wateris converted to steam to drive a turbine. Instead,positively charged heavy atoms and negativelycharged electrons — released during fissionreactions in fuel — are separated and collectedat electrodes. This can create a usable voltage.

Achieving the separation is part of thecurrent challenge. Designs call for the use ofmagnetic fields to stop electrons from bridgingthe gap. After looking at several concepts,researchers are now pushing ahead with whatthey view as the best path.

The DOE-funded project will take aboutthree years to reach the critical experimentstage, Rochau estimated. “We want to demon-strate that the basic physics that works on thenanosecond level in the Z machine (Sandia’sfusion research facility) can also work in acontinuous time frame.” If successful, the effortcould lead to a dramatic new source of power“A baseball-sized device could generate fourmillion volts,” said Rochau.

The concept isn’t just for high-intensitypower levels, either. “We are also looking atamericium and strontium 90, essentially nuclearwaste materials, to build batteries the size ofresistors to put in MicroElectroMechanicalSystems (MEMS), or micro-machines.”

Micro-machines are so small that they areimperceptible to the human eye, with workinggears no larger than a grain of pollen. They canbe batch-fabricated – tens of thousands at atime – at a cost of only pennies each. “We havea research project to see how small we can buildpower sources for these devices and how muchpower we can generate,” Rochau said.Radioactivity levels are tiny on such a scaleand could easily be shielded to protect humans.

A fission battery?Gary Rochau, man-

ager of the Labs’Modeling and Analy-sis Department, and

his research staff areplanning a “proof of

principle” experimentto demonstrate that

electricity can beprovided directly from

fission, withoutboiling water.


Gary Rochau holds a cutaway model of magnetically insulated fission electric cell.

“We know we canuse radiolytic

processes to scrubpollutants out of fluegases,” Powers said.

“So we asked thequestion, could we

find a way to useradiolysis to strip out

CO and CO2 in aprocess designed to

make hydrogen?”Radiolysis is use of

radiation to breakchemical bonds and

re-arrange molecules.It has been used indecontamination of

mail – to kill anthrax– and is also used to

help preservesome foods.

23


“We could have lady-bug-sized probes. Thisopens up new vistas for self-powered devices.”

Hydrogen Fuels

Hydrogen, a promising fuel of the future,faces some difficult technical hurdles. Althoughit’s plentiful – it’s right there in our water afterall – getting it can be very energy intensive.The question of finding an inexpensive, cleanway to generate hydrogen may tie directly tothe development of new generation nuclearreactors.

As a part of a Nuclear Energy ResearchInitiative funded by the Department of Energy,Sandia is partnering with the University ofKentucky and General Atomics Corporationon a new chemical method to generatehydrogen. The work also has implications forthe National Climate Change TechnologyInitiative (NCCTI), announced recently by theBush administration.

The NCCTI is aimed at research,development, and deployment initiatives forrenewable energy projects; hydrogen productionand storage; life extension of nuclear powerplants; more efficient coal and natural gasgeneration; the capture and storage of carbondioxide; and other projects with potential forimproving climate.

Sandia and partners are experimentingwith a thermal-chemical cycle for creatinghydrogen from sulfuric acid and hydrogeniodine, using high temperatures. “There are alot of aggressive chemicals needed to makehydrogen in the current process,” explainedPaul Pickard, manager for Sandia’s AdvancedNuclear Concepts department. But simpleelectrolysis – taking the hydrogen from water– is not as efficient as the thermal-chemicaltechniques.

Interest in hydrogen as a fuel grew duringthe energy crises of the 1970s, when it wasbelieved that fossil fuel prices would continueto climb. The prospect of using new low-costnuclear energy to produce hydrogen for mobileand stationary applications looked promisingunder those circumstances.

“Those conditions didn’t materialize,”said Pickard. But new generation reactors withhigher running temperatures – in the 700 to800 degree Celsius range – and better energy

conversion rates, may make the hydrogen-nuclear link work in the future.

Currently most hydrogen used in industrialprocesses is produced from natural gas througha steam reforming process. Hydrogen producedby this process results in greenhouse gasproduction, another concern. Another classicapproach to hydrogen production is to runsteam over coal, explains Dana Powers, seniorscientist in Sandia’s Nuclear and RiskTechnologies center. Again greenhouse gasesare an issue.

Economic hurdles also exist for hydrogenstorage systems – they are too expensive anddo not meet the performance requirements ofthe various applications. This is especially truefor hydrogen's potential use as a transportationfuel, where there is a need for high energydensity. Hydrogen has a very low energy densityat normal conditions. Mobile fuel tanks mustoperate at very high pressure and be light inweight. Researchers at Sandia California arenow testing new materials, called hydrides toaddress this problem.

“Our concept is to create a solid statematerial that a lot of hydrogen can soak intoreversibly,” explained Jim Wang, manager ofSandia’s Analytic Materials Science department.“Hydrogen gas is very flammable and as it iscompressed this becomes more of a problem.Our goal is to develop materials wherehydrogen is stored near ambient pressures andtemperatures in solid form.”

New hydrides that are different from thoseused for cell phones and laptop batteries offerhope to store hydrogen on-board for trans-portation applications. One of the goals of therecently announced FreedomCAR initiative, acollaboration among national laboratories,industry, universities and government, is todevelop solid state materials for storing 7.5percent and higher hydrogen by weight.Presently, Wang’s California group successfullysynthesized complex aluminum hydrides thatare capable of storing hydrogen up to 5 weightpercent reversibly at temperatures below1000 C. Research efforts are underway todevelop other hydrides by studying themechanisms of the current complex hydrides.

In the long run, hydrogen could be animportant source of energy in the US. Sandia’sresearch is helping to support that effort.

24

Transparency Frameworks

A Sandia-developed technique, calledTransparency Frameworks, is being used tocreate a way for countries to observe oneanother and assure themselves that nuclearenergy activities are not fostering the spreadof weapons.

This new tool draws heavily on an oldidea, called “transparency.”

“Transparency is the ensuring ofconfidence by the public of nuclear facilities,said Kent Biringer, a researcher at Sandia’sCooperative Monitoring Center (CMC.) TheCMC has been busy since the mid-1990sdemonstrating how activities at remote sitescan be monitored using video systems, seals,tags, sensors, tracking devices, and dataauthentication. Sometimes simple, sometimessophisticated, transparency methods helpnations earn trust from one another.

With researchers from Sandia’s infor-mation systems, nuclear energy, and non-proliferation organizations, the team is readyto kick off an effort to extend the CMCexperience and create new transparencysoftware. British Nuclear Fuels is also a partnerin the effort.

“The industry is pushing more and moretoward automation of its nuclear energyprocesses. It is proving cost efficient, but italso provides a dearth of information,” explainsGary Rochau, manager of Sandia’s Modelingand Analysis department. “If you can provideinformation with the automation, you cananalyze it with risk informed proliferationassessment methods. You can constantlycalculate the probability that somethingimportant is being stolen.”

Sandia envisions a multi-disciplinaryapproach to a transparent and proliferationresistant future. This approach that involves avariety of technologies, including advancedcontrols, cyber security, sensors, informationand computational developments, andinformation sharing. Sandia also hopes toapply its experience in radiation effects testingand radiation hardening to develop new sensorsthat can be placed in very radioactiveenvironments like a reactor core. Thesetechnologies will be woven together into a

Transparency Framework to provide continuousreal-time monitoring of global nuclear fuelcycle activities.

The CMC started working towardtransparency with Internet observation methodsand the current project would propose to buildupon that. “The idea is observation withoutinterference,” explained Rochau. “Withtransparency, people can look at all kinds offuel cycles. We have a philosophy that withcontrol, there are far more possibilities for thefuture. Without control, there is fear of theunknown. Through transparency, Sandia canmake a strong contribution.”

Transport Testing

Containers used to move spent fuel byrail or by highway are designed to withstandaccidents. United States and internationalregulations require that these containers beable to pass a series of tests that simulate severeaccidents. The NRC reviews and certifies thatspent fuel container designs meet theseregulations. The containers must be able tosurvive a sequence of four accident testsinvolving impact, puncture, fire, and sub-mersion. During and after the tests, the casksmust maintain a leak-tight seal that wouldprevent escape of any of the contents.

Working closely with Sandia, the NuclearRegulatory Commission (NRC) completed itsfirst comprehensive study on the risks oftransporting radioactive materials includingspent nuclear fuel in 1977. This has becomethe “baseline” study, used to compare newinformation and studies completed since. In1987, improved research methods were usedto study the ability of spent fuel shippingcontainers to withstand severe accidents andto estimate the risks to the public of possiblereleases of radioactive materials during severeaccidents. This study added assurances aboutthe ability of spent fuel shipping casks towithstand an accident and confirmed that riskestimates in the 1977 study were conservative.

An NRC study conducted at Sandia andreleased in March 2000 used even newertechnologies to analyze the ability of containersto withstand severe accidents. This studyconcluded that the risks are even smaller thanestimated by the 1987 study.

An NRC studyconducted at Sandiaand released in March

2000 used evennewer technologies to

analyze the abilityof containers to

withstand severeaccidents. This study

concluded that therisks are even smaller

than estimated bythe 1987 study.


Through theCenter for Strategic

and InternationalStudies (CSIS),

Sandia leaders haveparticipated in task

forces on nuclearmaterials and arms

control, a revisiting ofthe “Atoms for

Peace”concept,domestic energy

policy, education, anda variety of other

subjects.

”We felt that toreally create and take

advantage of newopportunities, the

entire managementteam had to be

engaged. We neededa ‘shared vision’ that

both tied us to therest of the Labs

and challenged usto develop an

exciting future.”

25


The NRC is continuing to followdevelopments in spent fuel shipping to assurethat risks remain within safe limits. Followingthe most recent study, NRC initiated a four-yearproject at Sandia, which will conduct a high-speed impact test and a long-duration fire testof a rail cask, said Ken Sorenson, manager ofSandia’s Transportation Risk and Packagingdepartment.

Sandia made history in the nuclearmaterials transport field by conducting the firstfull-scale crash tests in the late 1970s. One ofthese tests involved crashing a tractor-trailer rigcarrying a shipping cask into a concrete target,using the Labs’ 2000-foot rocket sled track.Another test crashed a 120-ton diesel locomotivetraveling at more than 80 miles per hour into acask and trailer at a simulated rail crossing.Videos of these tests are still being shown todayto demonstrate the robustness of thetransportation casks. Other experiments havefollowed using Sandia facilities to conduct drop,burn and puncture tests of the casks.

The chance of a radioactive material releasein an accident cannot be entirely eliminated.However, based on more than 20 years ofshipments without a radioactive release andongoing testing and simulation work, the NRChas determined that the chance of a release isextremely small and that the existing regulationsare still valid.

Engaging the Debate

Since the late 1990s, Sandia has recognizedthe need for a nuclear renaissance and haspushed for the US to be a participant by engagingin a number of forums. The Sandia – KurchatovInstitute Initiative to provide decision-makerswith information about nuclear power (see page14) is only the latest in this series of efforts byLabs’ leadership to engage in the nuclear powerdebate.

In fact, the nuclear effort grew out of awider vision, said Joan Woodard, Sandia’sExecutive Vice President, who led the Labs’energy programs from 1995 to 1999. “We startedin the context of trying to bring an active debateabout energy strategy as a whole,” she said.“We highlighted the idea that no one energysupply was the answer given the world’s energysituation. We stressed the need for an integratedenergy strategy across a portfolio of energy

options, so as not to close the door on any oneoption, including one like nuclear power thatwe will need in the future.”

Those early efforts led to Sandia’s 1997participation in a seven-lab study, whichrecommended the inclusion of nuclear poweras an element in the US energy mix.

Sandia executives C. Paul Robinson, RogerHagengruber, Tom Hunter and Bob Eagan havebeen at the forefront in working with a numberof organizations over recent years to furthertheir vision of the role nuclear power can playin the world’s energy future.

Through the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies (CSIS), Sandia leadershave participated in task forces on nuclearmaterials and arms control, a revisiting of the“Atoms for Peace”concept, domestic energypolicy, education, and a variety of other subjects.Under the direction of the Labs’ leadership,researchers have performed a number of studiesto help advance policy toward the beneficialuse of nuclear technology.

In June 2000, the CSIS initiated a briefingfor Senate and House staffers that grew into a“Nuclear Caucus” with growing attendancefrom lawmakers and staff. Sandia and othernational laboratories experts joined the CSISin sponsoring the caucus. New Mexico’s twoUS Senators, Pete Domenici and Jeff Bingaman,have since urged that the caucus become a bi-partisan base for energy policy action.

Sandia’s efforts have paid dividends in theyears since. Numerous leaders and decision-makers have picked up on the idea of an inte-grated national energy strategy and multi-yearinitiative to create such a strategy has grown.

Sharing the Vision

Imagine a group of independent, motivatedmanagers and their staff, each dedicated to anindividual research direction in areas that havesteadily declined for many years. Imagine thatsome managers, at multiple levels, begin tobelieve that the business environment can changeand that Sandia can influence that change in away that will help the country. Yet, others seethis belief as a mirage, not a real opportunity.

This was the challenge faced by TomBlejwas, director for Sandia’s Nuclear and RiskTechnologies Center, and his management team.

26

One of the bigchallenges in achiev-

ing a successfulnuclear future will be

bringing advancedreactor technology to

the marketplace.


A part of the impetus for the change was anew vision statement, crafted by three Sandiavice presidents (see page 8.) At the same time,Blejwas and some of his managers realizedthat changes in political and social views inthe US and elsewhere were making thepossibility of reaching the new vision a strongerpossibility.

”We felt that to really create and takeadvantage of new opportunities, the entiremanagement team had to be engaged. Weneeded a ‘shared vision’ that both tied us tothe rest of the Labs and challenged us todevelop an exciting future,” said Blejwas.

To address these issues and move frommultiple independent visions to a single sharedone involved a somewhat different approachto management, explained John Guth, of thecenter’s program management office. “I toldthe group when we convened that we weren’tgoing to start by spending two days to writea one-page mission statement,” he said.Instead, Guth focused on the behaviors thatwere going to be needed to succeed.

The behavior approach can be a painfulprocess, Guth conceded. It calls for putting all

issues and concerns on the table, discussingthem and then moving toward a consensus.The first step in the process was not a finalmission, but a group of agreed upon ways tocommunicate and behave to reach the goals,yet to be established. In this case the behavioralplan led to a consensus on where the centerfit into Sandia’s larger mission.

“We are a national security laboratory,we had the Global Nuclear Future vision, andwe were working on a number of NuclearEnergy initiatives for the Department ofEnergy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission,and others,” explained Blejwas. “We believethe Nuclear Energy initiatives are a key partof the Global Nuclear Future vision and thatenergy independence is a pivotal part ofnational security.”

From this realization, the team “down-scoped” to identify thrust areas to focus effortson in a way that tied them together and to theLabs’ broader missions. Identifying these areasalso helped the team to establish linkagesbetween the center and other Sandia organi-zations. These include international securityprograms, geosciences and environment, andnuclear waste management organizations.

Advanced Reactors

“Sandia is working on advanced reactorconcepts,” Tom Blejwas, Sandia’s Director forNuclear and Risk Technologies, said. “We arelooking at integrated fuel cycles in more detailto see the impact. We think we have to showthe policy makers more detail to demonstratewhat is needed.” Researchers at Sandia arelooking toward an evolutionary suite of reactordesigns, each improving on cost effectiveness,safety, and more efficient use of available fuels.

To reach a level where 50 percent of USpower is provided from nuclear by 2050 —with an 80 to 90 percent reduction in waste— advanced reactors are a must, Blejwasexplained. The nuclear future can expect tosee a movement away from the present light-water reactor technologies, which operate athigh temperatures to heat water to make steam,to newer gas reactors, which generate powermore efficiently. Breeder reactors actually

Sandia's Annular Core Research Reactor can be used in a vareity of experiments.

27


create new fuel while generating power andwill further extend uranium resources. Theexperimental concept of direct energyconversion, which makes use of the heavyionization of nuclear materials to generateelectricity directly from the fuel materials, isfurther into the future. Finally, beyond thesefission efforts lies the promise of fusion.

For the next 10 to 20 years, proposednew nuclear power plants are likely to looklike improved versions of today’s water-cooleddesigns, said Paul Pickard, manager of Sandia’sAdvanced Nuclear Concepts Department.Investors for the next generation of reactors– 30 to 50 years out – will be looking for more.They will want inherently safe, proliferationresistant, highly efficient reactors that minimizewaste and offer multiple uses.

“You have to start with the fuel cycle andconsider the full picture, including wastes andproliferation concerns, and decide where youwant to go,” said Pickard. “We could fill YuccaMountain by 2030, but if we expand nuclearpower we’re going to either need morerepositories like that or develop a more efficientuse of the fuel cycle. We have to minimize theload on the repository and look at transportation

and proliferation issues. When you look at theintegrated fuel cycle issue in the long term,you can see we’re going to need a mix ofreactors to optimize nuclear power resourcesand costs.”

Pebbles and Gas

Oak Ridge National Laboratory and theIdaho National Engineering and EnvironmentalLaboratory are taking the lead in DOE researchfor two near-term gas reactors under theSecretary of Energy’s Nuclear Power 2010initiative. These designs should meet some ofthe demands for optimizing future reactors.The pebble bed modular reactor and theadvanced gas turbine helium reactor both areconsidered real options for future powergeneration because of the promise they holdfor lower costs and inherent safety.

Sandia’s likely role in these near-termprojects will be in addressing regulatory andsafety issues. New reactor types will requireregulators to look at different issues than inthe past and perform new types of analyses.(See page 17.)

In the pebble bed concept, pipes pumphelium to flow around carbon-coated uranium“pebbles.” The helium absorbs heat and flowsout of the reactor to produce electricity. Highertemperatures and pressures result in theefficient generation of power. Further, thedesign is seen as safer in that it will conductheat away from the fuel and is unlikely tomelt down.

In the pebble bed approach, modularconstruction will allow addition of capacityat existing plants in many cases, eliminatingthe issues of finding a new site with acceptingneighbors. The pebble bed design may notrequire a large containment building, as dolight-water reactors. Some observers havesuggested it could even be earth sheltered toprotect from the possibility of terrorist attack.

Further into the future, advanced very-high temperature gas reactors are also on thedrawing board. These so-called “GenerationIV” reactors take advantage of highertemperature operation to create bettergenerating efficiencies. They also provide theability to generate hydrogen from water and

reactorvessel

pebblebed

core

helium

turbine

compressor

electricalgenerator

recuperator

helium

Schematic of Pebble Bed Modular Reactor

turbine

The pebble beddesign may notrequire a large

containment building,as do light-water

reactors. Someobservers have

suggested it couldeven be earth

sheltered to protectfrom the possibility of

terrorist attack.

28

The basic idea isa wheel of a dozen

Z-type machines witha distribution center

at the hub to providerecyclable cartridges.The cartridges include

transmission linesand targets and are

manufactured at thehub and connected

to each of 12 contain-ment chambers. In

the present plan,turbine systems

adjacent to each ofthe containmentchambers would

generate the actualelectricity.


other hydrogen-containing compounds, suchas fossil fuels. Hydrogen (see page 22) maybe valuable as a future transportation fuel.

Sandia is involved in conducting researchon these concepts from the perspective ofassociated safety and engineering issues, saidPaul Pickard, manager of Sandia’s AdvancedNuclear Concepts Department. Achieving ahigher output of electricity per plant, reducingwastes and generating clean transportationfuels can help the US move toward its goalof energy independence.

Fusion Power

While uranium is a potent fuel source,fusion power makes use of resources abundantin nature – such as the hydrogen isotopedeuterium – to extend available energy to thepoint where it is essentially limitless. To getto the point of sustainable energy from fusionpower, however, many technical issues mustbe addressed. Sandia is working with a numberof groups – national laboratories, universitiesand international collaborations – to addressfusion from multiple approaches, explainsCraig Olson, Scientific Advisor for the Labs’Pulsed Power Sciences center. At the sametime, the Labs’ own focus has been largelyon inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and it’sunique “Z-pinch” technology.

Researchers atSandia’s Z-machineare working todevelop z-pinchdriven x-ray sourcesto drive ICF targets.Their long-rangevision is to achievehigh fusion yield ona future machinecalled X-1. Mean-while, another groupof researchers areworking on a firstconcept to harnessrepetitive pulses offusion power toproduce an inertialfusion energy power

plant that would produce electricity.“We have to scale up the x-ray output

energy of the Z-machine by a factor of 10 to25 per shot and have a shot once every 10seconds,” says Gary Rochau, manager ofSandia’s Modeling andAnalysis department.

The scaling up of energy may meana plant that is two or three times the size ofthe current Z machine, according to project-ions. Reaching the frequency of one shot every10 seconds requires pulsed power develop-ment. “Right now we have one shot a day andit is very labor intensive,” says Rochau.Working with researchers from several Sandiagroups, several universities and privateindustry, the Sandia team is developing aninitial Z-pinch power plant concept.

The basic idea is a wheel of a dozenZ-type machines with a distribution center atthe hub to provide recyclable cartridges. Thecartridges include recyclable transmissionlines and targets that are manufactured at thehub and supplied to each of 12 containmentchambers. In the present plan, turbine systemsadjacent to each of the containment chamberswould generate the actual electricity.

In a cycle, the chambers – at the heartof each of the machines – would be fitted withcartridges from the central distribution hub.Then, z-pinch driven intense x-ray energy

An early concept: Inertial Fusion Energy Power Plant

29


In the past, themain energy needs in

space – propulsionand station support –

have been providedby chemical and solar

methods, respec-tively. Nuclear power

fits into the spacepicture in cases where

larger power de-mands are called for

or propulsion isneeded over lengthiertimes and distances.

compresses and heats the target until it ignites.Heat and energy are produced, melting thecartridge and contents of the chamber. Thickliquid walls made of the molten salt mixturecalled Flibe (containing fluorine, lithium andberyllium) would be used to capture the energyfrom the explosion, shield the walls of thechamber and breed new tritium fuel. The turbineplant uses the heat to generate electricity.Finally, the molten material in each chamberis recycled into new cartridges and coolant forthe next cycle.

“There are physics issues in developingfusion targets, but basically power generationis an engineering problem,” says Rochau. “Ifthis worked, it would be clean, there would beno long-lived radioactive products, and it wouldgreatly reduce proliferation-associated issues.”Olson agrees. The process is inherently muchsafer than fission, he notes. “There is a con-siderable amount of research and developmentthat needs to be done, but we have not foundor heard of any fundamental objections thatwould prevent this concept from working.”

Space Power

Sandia researchers are finding aresurgence of interest in nuclear power andother nuclear applications in space. A smallnuclear reactor can provide very large amountsof energy for extended space missions withonly a small fraction of the weight of

conventional power systems. DOE has beensupporting space nuclear research and now theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA) has announced interests in nuclearpower for planetary missions and space stationsupport. The Department of Defense (DoD)and several commercial enterprises have alsoindicated interests in nuclear technology forspace applications.

In the past, the main energy needs in space– propulsion and station support – have beenprovided by chemical and solar methods,respectively. (For extended space missions,where solar may be less effective, RTGs –radioisotope generators – have been used tosupply smaller amounts of power.) Nuclearreactor power fits into the space picture incases where larger power demands are calledfor, or propulsion is needed over lengthier timesand distances. Small, special-purpose reactorsystems that provide more power in smallerpackages for space could become an importantarea forSandia, believes Paul Pickard, managerof Sandia’s Advanced Nuclear ConceptsDepartment.

Getting a satellite to low earth orbit (LEO)at 400 miles above earth has become relativelyroutine with chemical rocket technology.However, moving a satellite to geosynchronousearth orbit (GEO) at 22,000 miles above thesurface is much more difficult and expensive.One innovative potential application for specialpurpose reactors currently being discussed isa nuclear powered transport vehicle that could

pick up satellites in LEOand move them to GEO.Such a capability couldbe valuable in a numberof ways. It could makeorbital corrections, recoverdamaged satellites andreduce both expense andrisk for placement oflarger, more capablesatellites in the future. Sandia’s history inthe design, building,operation and testing ofspecial purpose nuclearreactors can be valuable

An Advanced Electric Propulsion Concept using special purpose reactor technologies

“We look forwardto continuing this

team approach,” saysPaul. “We have a

combination ofnuclear energy andweapons expertiseand our integratingsystems strengths.We can bring them

together on anational level.”

in developing power or propulsion units forspecial cases like the LEO-GEO transportsystem. NASA-proposed planetary explorationand other deep space activities will also requirenew propulsion systems. “These are spaceapplications only a nuclear reactor can provideeconomically. At some point you need to moveto a reactor to meet the higher energydemands,” Pickard explains. “Current conceptscall for small reactors – with dimensions gen-erally less than a meter – to be coupled withelectric propulsion systems, called ion thrusters.These nuclear electric propulsion systems areclearly what NASA is thinking about rightnow to maximize propulsion efficiency.” Sandia has already had some experiencewith nuclear power in space. “We have workedon safety and thermal aspects of the SpaceNuclear Thermal Propulsion Program, theCassini space probe to Saturn, the RussianSpace reactor TOPAZ and other spaceapplications,” Paul explains. Sandia has been involved in the DOESpecial Purpose Fission Technology Program(SPFT.) In this program, DOE is looking athow its nuclear technologies can help NASAwith manned missions to outer planets. Thesenuclear-electric propulsion systems cansignificantly reduce trip times for mannedflights to distant targets. Further, these reactorscould go up “cold” with their uranium fueland then start up and head for the outer planetsor other targets, minimizing any potential safetyproblems. For manned flights, shielding canbe designed to reduce the radiation levels fromthe reactor to well below the naturalbackground of space. NASA’s recently announced NuclearSystems Initiative dedicates one billion dollarsand five years to the study of advanced nuclearpower for propulsion. “We have already beeninvolved in this technology through the DOE’sSPFT program, looking at small systems forpropulsion and for terrestrial power. We wantto provide technical options for NASA thatare achievable in the near term,” says Paul.DoD has also recently announced interests in

nuclear power in space applications and thatthey would work with NASA on research intothese systems. "We can hopefully provide support toDOE, NASA and now DoD, plus commercialinterests, who are all looking at similartechnologies,” Paul says. Sandia’s charter toprovide testing capabilities for the nuclearstockpile has created unique facilities with theLabs’ Technical Area V research reactors.These test reactors can be reconfigured forflexible testing and also have applications forspace propulsion. Sandia and Los Alamos NationalLaboratory have teamed on SPFT and NASAprojects on small, special-purpose reactors.“We look forward to continuing this teamapproach,” says Paul. “We have a combinationof expertise in nuclear energy technologiesand our systems integration strengths. We canbring them together on a national level.”

30


31


“Together, we havemuch more toaccomplish.”

In 1997 I presented a speech atHarvard University calling for a newnational dialogue on nuclear tech-nologies. I noted that the benefits ofnuclear energy can only be realized ifwe carefully control the proliferationand military issues associated withnuclear technologies. Progress in nuclear energy since1997 is nothing short of phenomenal.The industry has performed verywell. The Nuclear Regulatory Com-mission is much more predictable andresponsive. There is growing appre-ciation for the role of nuclear energyin limiting emissions of greenhousegas emissions. There’s a rebirth of enthusiasmwithin the industry for new expansionand a growing recognition that nuclearenergy is our only expandable sourceof emission-free baseload power. Wearen’t alone in this conclusion, Japanand France are well ahead of us.

The Senate hasnow completed itswork on a compre-hensive energy bill,which passed with alarge margin. I’vebeen very pleasedwith acceptance ofseveral nuclearenergy amendmentsthat I’ve supported.

Extension of the Price-Andersonlegislation to cover liabilities associatedwith all nuclear activities was accepted. A new Office of Spent Nuclear FuelResearch has been created to evaluatethe role that advanced fuel cycles,including reprocessing and transmu-tation, can play in alternative manage-ment strategies for spent fuel. TheNuclear Power 2010 initiative wasauthorized, establishing a goal for newnuclear capacity. The debate has shown strongsupport for nuclear energy. Now I’mlooking forward to serving on theconference committee to develop thefinal legislation. Later this year, the Senate shoulddeal with the veto by the Governor ofNevada of the proposed high-levelwaste repository at Yucca Mountain.Some Senators may favor parli-amentary maneuvers to sustain hisveto, but it’s too early to predict thefinal outcome. I‘m hopeful we’llproceed with licensing activities atYucca Mountain. But independent of that vote, Isupport research in reprocessing andtransmutation. There’s an immenserole for the national laboratories in thisarea, along with universities and

industry, to study new reprocessingconcepts that avoid proliferationconcerns and minimize waste gener-ation. Other exciting areas for involve-ment of the national labs include newreactor designs, fuel cycles, andlicensing issues. A move towards reprocessing wouldbe an immense step in moving nuclearenergy towards a sustainable powersource. Transmutation – after stillmore research – could provide sustain-able energy for future generations. Finally, I want to return to my initialcomment about the importance ofaddressing potential security riskscaused by nuclear technologies at thesame time that we seek to benefit fromthe opportunities they enable. We mustwork towards a world where these risksare understood and controlled. The national labs must providestrong leadership to realize this vision.Their expertise will help determine thefate of nuclear energy. They mustdevelop new approaches for globalcontrol of nuclear materials. And theymust develop new nonproliferationtools to ensure that nuclear tech-nologies never threaten global stability,but instead remain a vital force inpreserving stability. You know of my interests in theseareas from my past work with Sandiaand other national laboratories. Myinterest in these subjects has onlyincreased over these years. Together,we have much more to accomplish.

INSIGHTS By U.S. Senator Pete V. Domenici

32


Managing the Global Nuclear Materials Threat, January 2000, a Center for Strategicand International Studies panel report, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20006, orhttp:www.csis.org/

China: Environmental Issues, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy InformationAdministration (EIA), at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chinaenv.html and ChinaCountry Analysis, also EIA, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html

Fire in the East: the rise of Asian military power and the second nuclear age,Paul J. Bracken, New York: Harper Collins, 1999.

Climate Change 2001, authored by a joint United Nations and World MeteorologicalOrganization Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, January 2001.

Global Warming: Focus on the Future, the official website of a traveling exhibitiondeveloped by the Environmental Defense Fund as an educational tool, athttp://globalwarming.enviroweb.org

The Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century, November 2000, a Center forStrategic and International Studies panel report, 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC,20006, or http:www.csis.org/

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle, March 2001, World Nuclear Association, at:http://www.world-nuclear.org/ and Washington Nuclear Corporation site of informationand links at : http://www.nuke-energy.com/

America The Powerless, Alan E. Waltar, Cogito Books, Madison, Wisconsin, 1995.

Frontline: Nuclear Reaction, 1997, PBS Video on the question of why Americansfear nuclear power generation. Narrated by Pulitzer Prize winner Richard Rhodes.

For Further

Reading….

“The national labs must providestrong leadership to realize this vision.Their expertise will help determine

the fate of nuclear energy. They mustdevelop new approaches for global

control of nuclear materials.And they must develop new

nonproliferation tools to ensure thatnuclear technologies never threatenglobal stability, but instead remain avital force in preserving stability. “

US Senator Pete V. Domenici

PRSRT STDU.S. PostagePAID

Albuquerque, NMPermit NO. 232

Media Relations & Communications Dept.MS 0165Sandia National LaboratoriesP.O. Box 5800Albuquerque, NM 87185-0165

SAND 2002-1400P

theglobal nuclear future · developed some nuclear fuel cycle capa-bilities without any us...

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