the$diﬀusion$of$cash/crops$since$the$ageof$explora-on$ 3_2.pdf ·...

The diffusion of cash-‐crops since the Age of Explora-on

Alfonso Díez Minguela Universitat de València

Mª Dolores Añón Higón Universitat de València-‐ERICES

Valencia FRESH meeIng 2013 June 13, 2013

Universitat de València

Outline

2

•  MoIvaIon

•  Which crops?

•  Model

•  Case study: Coffee and Tea

•  Conclusions

MoIvaIon

3

•  The discovery of the New World and the opening of the Asian route through the Cape of Good Hope gave way to the Age of Explora-on.

•  Since then, the world economy witnessed a conInuous

process of market integraIon: More goods, lower prices. Hersh and Voth (2012): ‘Sweet diversity and welfare gains’, co_on and the Industrial revoluIon.

What about producIon?

MoIvaIon? The 2000s

4

Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons

0.8$1.00.6$0.80.4$0.60.2$0.40.0.$0.2No+data

Map. Share of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials of total exports, 2000s

MoIvaIon: The 1960s

5

80#100%60#80%40#60%20#40%0#20%No+data

Map. Share of 8 cash-‐export crops in total exports, 1960s

Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons

Which cash-‐export crops?

6

England'and'Wales JapanCash'export'crop Year Year Source Year

SpicesCinnamon .. 1358 Navarra na

Cloves na 1358 Navarra naGinger 1265 1351 Navarra naPepper 1212 1358 Navarra na

Sugar 1265 1354 Navarra na

Coffee 1682 na = naTea 1673 na = 1741

Cotton 1770 1552 Valencia na

Cacao na 1683 Barcelona naTobacco 1741 na = 1741

Spain

Source: England and Wales: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914); Navarra: Earl J. Hamilton (1936), Money, Prices and Wages in Valencia, Aragon and Navarre, 1351-‐1500; Valencia: Earl J. Hamilton (1934), El Tesoro Americano y la Revolución de los Precios en España, 1501-‐1650; Barcelona: Gaspar Feliu (1991), Precios y salarios en la Cataluña Moderna Vol. I: Alimentos; Japan: Mitsui Bunko (1989) Trends of Major Prices in Early Modern Japan.

Which cash-‐export crops?

7

England'and'Wales JapanCash'export'crop Year Year Source Year

SpicesCinnamon .. 1358 Navarra na

Cloves na 1358 Navarra naGinger 1265 1351 Navarra naPepper 1212 1358 Navarra na

Sugar 1265 1354 Navarra na

Coffee 1682 na = naTea 1673 na = 1741

Cotton 1770 1552 Valencia na

Cacao na 1683 Barcelona naTobacco 1741 na = 1741

Spain

Source: England and Wales: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914); Navarra: Earl J. Hamilton (1936), Money, Prices and Wages in Valencia, Aragon and Navarre, 1351-‐1500; Valencia: Earl J. Hamilton (1934), El Tesoro Americano y la Revolución de los Precios en España, 1501-‐1650; Barcelona: Gaspar Feliu (1991), Precios y salarios en la Cataluña Moderna Vol. I: Alimentos; Japan: Mitsui Bunko (1989) Trends of Major Prices in Early Modern Japan.

Cash-‐export crops: Historical relevance

8

Figure. Share of Coffee, Co_on, Sugar, Tea and Tobacco of Imports in Great Britain 1700-‐1804

1020

3040

50

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800

Total Sugar

Source: Mitchell, B. R. (2011): BriIsh Historical StaIsIcs

Cash-‐export crops: Historical relevance

9

Figure. Share of Coffee, Co_on, Sugar, Tea and Tobacco of Imports in Great Britain 1700-‐1804

1020

3040

50

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800

Total Sugar


Spain (1782-‐1796): 27-‐28% imports. Source: Fisher (1993)

Related literature

10

•  Many crop-‐specific studies at region and/or country level: Maize in Africa (McCann, 2005); Maize in China (Chen and Kung, 2012); Co_on (Riello, 2013) among others; Rubber and conflict in Benin (Fenske, 2013). Also general overviews: Kiple and Ornelas (2000)

Contrary to the previous studies, we a_empt to first describe and study the worldwide diffusion.

11

Model

Data

12

•  Area harvested. Source: FAOSTAT

•  Land suitability. Source: GAEZ-‐FAOSTAT. Land suitability is defined as land classified as being of medium, good, high and very high class for the culIvaIon of each crop (SI>40). A Suitability Index (SI) of 40 indicates a potenIal yield of at least 40 per cent of the maximum possible yield. We also assume the following condiIons: rain-‐fed culIvaIon, low input intensity and the climate baseline period 1961-‐1990.

Land suitability

13

Model

14

Yi = α + βXi+ γZi + εi

Yi: Country share of world harvested area for each crop Xi: Country share of world suitable land for culIvaIon

Zi: Control variables

Note: The dependent variable is a frac5on [0,1). Therefore, we use an esImaIon method proposed by Papke and Wooldridge (1996) for regression models with fracIonal response variable (Roper et al. , 2006).

LimitaIons

15

Problem 1. ProducIon is severely skewed towards zero.

Possible solu5on: “Two-‐part-‐model”

Part 1. Probability of culIvaIon

Part 2. CondiIonal on culIvaIon, what explains the rest?

Problem 2. Few observaIons as a result of specialisaIon.

Possible solu5on: Study regional/provincial level

GLM esImaIon: 1960s

16

! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !

! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa!

! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!

Land!suitability! 16.160***! 13.495***! 30.508***! 19.805***! 16.867***! 10.874***!

! (2.293)! (1.417)! (4.163)! (3.724)! (5.934)! (3.217)!

Constant! =5.441***! =5.366***! =5.861***! =5.759***! =5.438***! =5.311***!

! (0.358)! (0.212)! (0.302)! (0.235)! (0.400)! (0.467)!

! ! ! ! ! ! !

N! 168! 168! 168! 168! 168! 168!

!

GLM esImaIon: 1960s

17

! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton!! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!Land!suitability! 13.532***! 15.191**! 16.095***! 8.544***! 3.934***! 7.764**!! (2.145)! (7.614)! (4.992)! (1.674)! (1.474)! (3.056)!New!World! 3.058***! A1.871*! A1.719! 3.201***! 0.194! 0.873*!! (0.572)! (0.992)! (1.354)! (0.789)! (0.573)! (0.530)!British!colony! A0.529! 0.974*! 3.146**! 0.024! A0.086! 0.640!! (0.561)! (0.504)! (1.540)! (0.511)! (0.257)! (0.397)!French!colony! 1.709**! A1.307! 1.725! A0.755! A0.977***! A0.174!! (0.684)! (0.881)! (1.293)! (0.606)! (0.367)! (0.543)!Dutch!colony! 0.924**! A0.542! A2.732! A1.376**! 0.174! A2.802***!! (0.421)! (0.903)! (1.735)! (0.541)! (0.270)! (0.351)!Portuguese!colony! 1.977*! 0.326! 1.090! 0.534! A1.188***! 1.097**!! (1.059)! (0.895)! (1.583)! (0.546)! (0.357)! (0.552)!Distance!to!coast! A1.527! A2.929! A0.203! A3.043*! A0.513! 2.034***!! (0.968)! (2.210)! (0.842)! (1.698)! (0.407)! (0.520)!Distance!to!Britain! 0.631*! 2.021! 0.105! 0.664*! 0.204**! 0.181!! (0.347)! (1.454)! (0.240)! (0.403)! (0.100)! (0.144)!Population!in!1965! 0.685***! 0.925***! 0.397***! 0.882***! 0.809***! 0.852***!! (0.086)! (0.120)! (0.123)! (0.108)! (0.071)! (0.084)!Urbanisation!in!1965! A0.640! A3.702! 2.299*! A0.536! 0.364! A0.963!! (0.882)! (2.275)! (1.259)! (0.801)! (0.496)! (0.693)!Distance!to!origin! A1.260***! A0.127! A1.267*! A1.067***! 0.212! !! (0.147)! (0.407)! (0.647)! (0.378)! (0.227)! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !N! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167!

!

GLM esImaIon: 1960s

18

! ! GLM! ! ! GLM! !! Coffee! Tea! Cocoa! Sugar!cane! Tobacco! Cotton!! (1)! (2)! (3)! (4)! (5)! (6)!Land!suitability! 13.532***! 15.191**! 16.095***! 8.544***! 3.934***! 7.764**!! (2.145)! (7.614)! (4.992)! (1.674)! (1.474)! (3.056)!New!World! 3.058***! A1.871*! A1.719! 3.201***! 0.194! 0.873*!! (0.572)! (0.992)! (1.354)! (0.789)! (0.573)! (0.530)!British!colony! A0.529! 0.974*! 3.146**! 0.024! A0.086! 0.640!! (0.561)! (0.504)! (1.540)! (0.511)! (0.257)! (0.397)!French!colony! 1.709**! A1.307! 1.725! A0.755! A0.977***! A0.174!! (0.684)! (0.881)! (1.293)! (0.606)! (0.367)! (0.543)!Dutch!colony! 0.924**! A0.542! A2.732! A1.376**! 0.174! A2.802***!! (0.421)! (0.903)! (1.735)! (0.541)! (0.270)! (0.351)!Portuguese!colony! 1.977*! 0.326! 1.090! 0.534! A1.188***! 1.097**!! (1.059)! (0.895)! (1.583)! (0.546)! (0.357)! (0.552)!Distance!to!coast! A1.527! A2.929! A0.203! A3.043*! A0.513! 2.034***!! (0.968)! (2.210)! (0.842)! (1.698)! (0.407)! (0.520)!Distance!to!Britain! 0.631*! 2.021! 0.105! 0.664*! 0.204**! 0.181!! (0.347)! (1.454)! (0.240)! (0.403)! (0.100)! (0.144)!Population!in!1965! 0.685***! 0.925***! 0.397***! 0.882***! 0.809***! 0.852***!! (0.086)! (0.120)! (0.123)! (0.108)! (0.071)! (0.084)!Urbanisation!in!1965! A0.640! A3.702! 2.299*! A0.536! 0.364! A0.963!! (0.882)! (2.275)! (1.259)! (0.801)! (0.496)! (0.693)!Distance!to!origin! A1.260***! A0.127! A1.267*! A1.067***! 0.212! !! (0.147)! (0.407)! (0.647)! (0.378)! (0.227)! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! !N! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167! 167!

!

19

Case study: Coffee and Tea

Coffee and Tea: Basics

20

•  The coffee (coffea arabica/robusta) and tea (camellia sinensis) tree or bush are perennials.

•  Coffee was first domesIcated in Ethiopia and the Arabian peninsula, whereas tea is essenIally Asian.

•  Nowadays, coffee and tea are two of the most popular

beverages worldwide.

Coffee and Tea: Prices

21

0500

1000

1500

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850

Coffee Tea

Figure. Coffee and Tea prices (relaIve to wheat) in England and Wales, 1673-‐1869

Source: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914)

Coffee and Tea: Prices

22

0500

1000

1500

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850

Coffee Tea

Figure. Coffee and Tea prices (relaIve to wheat) in England and Wales, 1673-‐1869

Source: Clark (2004: The Price History of English Agriculture 1209-‐1914)

Coffee and Tea: The Great Divergence

23

02

46

8

1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910

Tea Coffee1(GBR) Coffee1(UK)

Figure. Coffee and Tea consumpIon (lb/cap/year) in UK, 1789-‐1914


Coffee and Tea: ProducIon before the Great war

24

Cotton Tobacco Rubber Tea Sugarcane Sugarbeet Cocoa Coffee

Independent 0.251 0.306 0.342 0.361 0.408 0.426 0.481 0.929

Great>Britain 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021

France 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.109 0.008 0.003Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.008 0.003

Germany 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.258 0.020 0.001Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.001

Netherlands 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.033 0.016 0.042Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.000 0.016 0.042

Belgium 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.003 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000

Spain 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.016 0.011 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000

Italy 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Portugal 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004

Denmark 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

United>States 0.584 0.366 0.000 0.000 0.122 0.081 0.003 0.000Non;contiguous(territory 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.003 0.000

SUM 0.998 0.973 0.789 1.000 0.984 1.000 0.998 1.000

Table. Share of world producIon by crop, 1909-‐13/14

Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926) Notes: Cocoa column includes BriIsh West Indies; Rubber column excludes African producIon.

Coffee and Tea: ProducIon before the Great war

25


Independent 0.251 0.306 0.342 0.361 0.408 0.426 0.481 0.929

Great>Britain 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.162 0.177 0.403 0.560 0.293 0.000 0.303 0.021

France 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.109 0.008 0.003Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.008 0.003

Germany 0.000 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.258 0.020 0.001Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.020 0.001

Netherlands 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.033 0.016 0.042Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.001 0.061 0.044 0.079 0.142 0.000 0.016 0.042

Belgium 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.003 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000

Spain 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.016 0.011 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.000

Italy 0.000 0.008 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Portugal 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.000 0.153 0.004

Denmark 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.015 0.000 0.000Colonies(and(Protectorates 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

United>States 0.584 0.366 0.000 0.000 0.122 0.081 0.003 0.000Non;contiguous(territory 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.000 0.003 0.000

SUM 0.998 0.973 0.789 1.000 0.984 1.000 0.998 1.000

Table. Share of world producIon by crop, 1909-‐13/14

Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926) Notes: Cocoa column includes BriIsh West Indies; Rubber column excludes African producIon.

Tea: SpaIal Diffusion

26

Map. The spaIal diffusion of tea producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s

Source: InternaIonal StaIsIcs Yearbook (1926); FAOSTAT and authors’ calculaIons

1909$141960s2000sNone

Tea: SpaIal Diffusion

27

Map. The spaIal diffusion of tea producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s


1909$141960s2000sNone

origin

Coffee: SpaIal Diffusion

28

Map. The spaIal diffusion of coffee producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s


1909$131960s2000sNone

Coffee: SpaIal Diffusion

29

Map. The spaIal diffusion of coffee producIon, 1909-‐13, 1960s and 2000s


1909$131960s2000sNone

origin

Coffee and Tea: Catching-‐up?

30 Source: FAOSTAT

0.2

.4.6

.81

1.2

Kilogram

s/capita/year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

coffee tea

Figure. World coffee and tea consumpIon (kg/capita/year), 1961-‐2009

Conclusions

31

•  This is a preliminary a_empt to describe and evaluate the diffusion of some relevant agricultural crops.

•  Our empirical analysis indicates that each crop has its own specific history.

•  Does geography ma_er? Yes. However, geography (i.e land suitability) does not fully explain the worldwide distribuIon of cash-‐export crops producIon.

•  Future research is needed to shed further light, e.g. prices, colonial rule, land tenure, trade policies.

32

Thank you

33

Appendix

Cash-‐export crops: Historical data

34

Commodity 1829/31 1859/61 1911/13 1927/29

Sugar 1 1 4 2Coffee 3 2 3 3Cotton 2 4 2 4Tea 6 5 10 10Tobacco 14 9 11 14Cocoa 7 7 7 19

Gold,<silver 4 8 12 7Petroleum 7 7 17 6Silk 8 7 18 17Wool 15 15 13 15

Table. Ranking of a selecIon of historical cash-‐export crops

Source: Bairoch and Etemad (1985), authors’ calculaIons

Cash-‐export crops: Relevance

35

Table. Export shares by commodity, 1960s (>40%)

Country (%) Country (%) Country (%)Sao$Tome$and$Principe 0.679 Burundi 0.685 Chad 0.601Ghana 0.654 Colombia 0.657 Sudan 0.528Equatorial$Guinea 0.539 Ethiopia$PDR 0.575 Egypt 0.513

Rwanda 0.563 Syrian$Arab$Republic 0.456El$Salvador 0.499TimorKLeste 0.457Brazil 0.451Haiti 0.441Guatemala 0.441Uganda 0.438Angola 0.429Costa$Rica 0.406

Country (%) Country (%) Country (%)Mauritius 0.904 Comoros 0.422 Sri$Lanka 0.607Saint$Kitts$and$Nevis 0.848 Bhutan 0.400Cuba 0.806Fiji 0.547Barbados 0.523Dominican$Republic 0.504Antigua$and$Barbuda 0.439

cocoa coffee cotton

sugar spices tea

Source: FAOSTAT, authors’ calculaIons Notes: (a) Rubber: Malaysia (39.7%), Indonesia (31.3%); (b) Tobacco: Malawi (36.2%), Greece (28.7%)

Cash-‐export crops: ConcentraIon

36

Table. Herfindhal index of concentraIon , 1909-‐13/14, 1960s and 2000s



Index3of3concentration3(1910s) 0.364 0.144 0.186 0.124 0.119 * 0.096 0.433N 34 44 5 8 36 * 24 31



Tobacco: SpaIal Diffusion

37

Map. The spaIal diffusion of tobacco producIon, 1909-‐14, 1960s and 2000s


1909$141960s2000sNone

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