the way i see it! - imperialism’s tinder box is full: no nuclear attack on iran
TRANSCRIPT
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8/8/2019 The Way I See It! - Imperialisms Tinder Box is Full: No Nuclear Attack on Iran
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TheWayISeeIt!ImperialismsTinderBoxisFull:NoNuclearAttackonIran
By:DonCurrieChairCanadiansforPeaceandSocialismEditorFocusonSocialismAugust27,2010
www.FocusOnSocialism.ca
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DearComradesandFriends
The prcis below by Fidel Castro Ruz of the work of the proIsraeli journalist Jeffrey
Goldberg must shake the complacency of every Communist, labour militant and peace
activisttothecore.
It isclear,as theWorldPeaceCouncil (WPC)and the InternationalMovementofWorkers
andCommunistParties(IMWCP)hasbeenwarningforsometime,thatIsraelwillattackIran,
withintheyearwithorwithouttheapprovaloftheObamaadministration.
The consequences of an aerial bombardment of Irans nuclear facilities can be so
catastrophic and destabilizing not only for theMiddle East and CentralAsia, but for the
entire
current
shaky
framework
of
international
relations,
that
it
can
cause
a
chain
reaction
thatwill create the conditions foruncontrollablemassivewarwithmisery anddeath for
millionsofpeople,includingthepeopleofIsrael,Palestineandtheirclosestneighbours.
WeshouldneverforgetasSoviethistorianswarnedus, thatWW2wasnotasingleevent,
but the culminationof awhole seriesof capitalistwars, culminating in theunleashingof
Hitlersarmiesthatledtothedeathsof50millionpeople.
Today the tinder box of imperialism is full. There are 12000 nuclear weapons, the
militarizationofspaceviasatellites,andthegreatestconcentrationofmilitarypowerinthe
hands
of
the
leading
imperialist
state
the
USA,
organized
globally,
exceeding
anything
we
haveseensincetheendofWW2.
TheinternalsituationintheUSAisunstable.TheUSeconomyisstagnantandmayevenbe
sliding into another phase of economic crisis. The rightwing extremist pressures on the
ObamaAdministrationtoaccedetowideningthewarsinCentralAsiaaregrowing.Nothing
emanating from the Obama Administration gives us confidence that without enormous
pressure,ithaseitherthewillortheintenttostaythehandofIsrael.
The twin evils of capitalism at the imperialist stage, extreme economic instability and
militarism,are
merging
with
speed
and
with
unparalleled
peril
and
misery
for
the
people
of
theworld.
Comradesandfriends.
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Wewho know better and from our own experience thatwar in themodern era solves
nothingexcepttobreedmorewararecalledupontoputthemattersquarely:Whatarewe
goingto
do?
The situation that is maturing and that is leading to another war demands that the
responsibleprogressiveleftactnow.
The responsibility toactfallsmosturgentlyontheCommunistsandtheirsupporters,past
and present and in the first place on the current leadership of the Communist Party of
Canada.
Whatshouldwedoasaminimumtofulfillourresponsibilitytoourpeople,toourcause,to
our
class
and
to
our
country?
What
is
the
concentration
task
around
which
we
can
all
unite?
TopreventanIsraeliUSHarpersanctionedattackonIranwouldbeagreatvictoryforpeace
and the best way we can help the people of Iran who are struggling under the most
contradictoryanddifficultcircumstanceforprogressiveadvance,democracyandpeace.The
consequences for the people of Israel are unforeseen. They can be quite terrible. The
consequenceforthebeleagueredpeopleofGazaandLebanonwillbedire.Howcanawar
againstIranhelptobringanendtotheordealofthepeopleofIraqandAfghanistan?
Weknowthereare inourowncountry,prowarforces,drivenbyhatredandrevengeand
myopia
that
will
welcome
such
a
war.
War
profiteering
as
always,
is
a
major
motive.
The
rest
isdeceit!
Whereverwemaybeatinourunderstandingofpeaceandprogress,whateverhasbeenour
personaljourney,noneofussupportwhatisbeingplannedinTelAvivandWashingtontobe
intheinterestsofanyofthepeoplesoftheMiddleEastandtheworld.WaragainstIran is
nottheanswer.ItwasntinIraqanditwasntinAfghanistanandwillnotbeinIran.
Wheretostart? Withtheobvious aplanofaction.
Nothingthatissaidherehasnotalreadybeenconsidered. Whatisconcerningisthatithas
notasyetbeendone.Therefore:
1. Weurgentlyappeal toGeneralSecretaryMiguelFigueroa leaderof theCommunistParty ofCanada to immediately,with the help of hismost trusted coworkers, to
prepareacarefullyworded,sober,succinctandbriefaspossiblestatement, inboth
French and English, to all of organized labour, peace and democratic forces of
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Quebec andCanada includingallof themembersof theoppositionpartieswith a
specialappealtotheNDPCaucusinParliament,theNDPGovernmentsofNovaScotia
andManitoba,
to
all
of
the
NDP
MLAs
in
all
of
the
provinces
and
territories,
to
the
responsible environmentalists and to the working class at large, warning of the
extremeconsequencesforpeaceofanIsraeliattackonIranandtodoeverythingin
theirpowertopreventit.
2. The issuingofsuchastatementshouldbeaccompaniedwith thecallingofapressconference and consideration given towhat can be done to have the statement
carriedonCPAC,theCBCandallwebsiteswithwhichtheCPCmaybeincontact.
3. We urge theCECof theCPC to consider requesting theopportunity for itspublicspokespersons
to
hand
deliver
their
statement
personally
to
a
representative
of
the
embassies and or consulates of Israel, Iran and the USA and to circulate such a
statementtotheentireambassadorialcommunityinOttawa.
4. Considerationmay be given to issuingof joint statementswith representativesofpropeacestateswithembassiesinCanada.
5. WerecommendthatallprovincialpartyorganizationsandtheCommunistsinQuebecbecalledupontogodirectlytotheirmembersandsupportersandappealto them
forhelptocirculateanddistributesuchastatementandtowhereverpossiblehand
deliverit
to
all
local
news
media
and
distribute
as
widely
as
possible
to
all
local
and
community papers, cable networks, and to the most progressively consistent
bloggersforpeace.
6. WeurgetheeditorialboardofPeoplesVoicetoassignamemberof itsboardwiththespecialconcentration task toprepareandedita featuredcolumndedicated to
the struggle forpeace that carries as a regular feature, the appeals of theWorld
PeaceCouncil,theCanadianPeaceCongress,theCanadianpeacemovementandthe
InternationalCommunistMovement relating topreventingan imperialistattackon
Iran.
7. WeappealtotheCECoftheCPCtoconveneanemergencyenlargedmeetingoftheCCassoonaspossibleandtomobilizealloftheresourcesathandwithanappealto
allofitscandidatestoissuestatementscallinguponallothernominatedcandidates
ofotherpoliticalpartiestorenounceanysupportforanattackbyIsraelonIran.This
should be done publicly and as part of the CPCs federal election work with the
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specificandpubliclystatedintenttodefeattheHarperGovernmentsprowarpolicy
andoustitfrompowerassoonaspossible.
8. We call upon all progressives to assist CPCon tomount a campaign for funds tosupportaCPConpubliccampaigntopreventanattackonIran.
9. Wecall for fullsupport toDaveMcKee,Presidentof theCanadianPeaceCongress(CPCon) andhiscommitteeandtodoallwecantoassistthemwithrealresources
requiredtoactivateCPCononacountrywidescale.
10.WerecommendthatCPConplanforanemergencyenlargedmeetingofitsexecutive,whereanappealcanbe issued totheCanadianPeaceAllianceandallof thepeace
organizations
of
Canada
calling
upon
them
to
speak
over
the
heads
of
the
politicians
directlytotheCanadianpeopletoopposeanIsraeliUSHarpersanctionedattackon
Iran.
11. We recommend that CPCon immediately speak with all of its Iranian and MiddleEasternandCentralAsiansupporterstospeakdirectlytotheircommunitiesandurge
them to publicly denounceplans forwar on Iran and towork resolutely for non
proliferationofnuclearweapons incooperationswithCPConand theWorldPeace
Council.
12.We
appeal
to
comrade
Professor
Daniel
Goldstick,
Editor
of
Spark
to
immediately
go
totheUnitedJewishPeoplesOrder(UJPO)andurgethemtoworkincollaboration
withCPConandtoconveneameetingofalloftheirsupporterstopubliclydenounce
theNetanyahuGovernmentanditsaggressivepoliciesandtoimmediatelyspeakout
againstthethreatofanIsraeliattackonIran.
13.We urge President Dave McKee or someone from his committee to immediatelyspeakwiththe leadingcommitteeoftheAssociationofUnitedUkrainianCanadians
appealing to them to act in cooperations with CPCon to alert and appeal to its
memberstoopposeanIsraeliUSsanctionedattackonIran.
14.WeurgePresidentDaveMcKeeoramemberofhiscommittee tospeakwithMikeLucas and his organization appealing to them to begin toworkwith CPCon on a
campaignofpeaceandtopreventanIsraelattackonIran.
15.WecallupontheCECoftheCPCtoconveneameetingofthefourteentradeunionmembers,newlyelectedtothe CCtodiscussaplanofactionthatwouldincludethe
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organizingofarankandfile labourpeacecommittee.Parttheirworkwouldinclude
opening up direct communicationswith theWFTU, consideration of attending its
nextWorld
Congress
and
circulating
the
work
of
the
WFTU
for
peace,
among
Canadiantradeunionists.
Ifthesemodeststepsweretaken,wecouldlaythebasisforconveningearlyintheNewYear
ofthemostrepresentativeconferenceofleftprogressivepeaceforceswecanmobilizewith
invitationstotheWPC,theWFTU,theWFDY,theWIDFtosendgreetingsasaminimumand
delegates if possible, with the express purpose of repositioning our movement as the
leadingforceforpeaceinCanada.
Dearcomradesandfriends.
Theseproposalsaremade inthefullknowledge that the leftprogressiveforcesdonotas
yetcommandthemasssupportwewouldwish.Thatisnotanexcusenottoactinthemost
organized,purposefulandunitedwaythatwecanwiththeresourceswehave.
AsChairofCPS,Iamdeeplyconvinced,not justfromtheexperienceofthepast,butfrom
whatIbelievetobeagrowingwarwearinessamongCanadianswithwhathashappenedin
Afghanistan, that a united campaign initiated by the left progressive forces,with CPCon
leading it,appealingtotheCanadianpeoplenottopermittheHarperGovernmenttodrag
us into anotherwar,would resonatepositively andhave an inspiring affecton allof the
forcesfor
peace
across
the
whole
country.
Icallfordiscussions,urgentdiscussions,
Thereisnooneelsetodoit
Comradely
DonCurrie,Chair,CanadiansforPeaceandSocialism
From:SolidNet[mailto:[email protected]]
Sent:Friday,August27,20101:19AM
Subject:Cuba,ReflectionsbyComradeFidel:TheOpinionofanExpert
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http://www.solidnet.org
News,documentsandcallsforactionfromcommunistandworkersparties.The itemsare
theresponsibilityoftheauthors.
Jointhemailinglist:info/subscribe/unsubscribemailto:[email protected] .
Cuba,ReflectionsbyComradeFidel:TheOpinionofanExpertFrom:EmbassyofCubainGreece,Friday,27August2010ReflectionsbyComradeFidel
TheOpinionofAnExpertIf Iwere tobeaskedwhobestknowsabout Israeli thinking, Iwouldanswer thatwithout
questionitisJeffreyGoldberg.Heisanindefatigablejournalist,capableofhavingdozensof
meetingstoascertainhowsomeIsraelileaderorintellectualmaythink.
Heisnotneutral,ofcourse;heisproIsraeli,noandsifsorbuts. Whenoneofthemdoesnot
agreewiththepolicyofthatcountry,thattooisnotdonehalfway.
Formyaim, it is importanttoknowthethinkingthatguidesthemainpoliticalandmilitary
leadersofthatState.
IfeelthatIhavetheauthoritytohaveanopinionbecauseIhaveneverbeenantiSemiticand
IsharewithhimaprofoundhatredofNaziFascismand thegenocideperpetratedagainst
children,womenandmen,youngoragedJewsagainstwhomHitler,theGestapoandthe
Nazistookouttheirhatredagainstthatpeople.
Forthesamereason,IabhorthecrimescommittedbythefascistgovernmentofNetanyahu
whichkillschildren,womenandmen,youngandoldintheGazaStripandontheWestBank.
InhisillustratedarticleThePointofNoReturnthatwillbeprintedinTheAtlanticjournal
inSeptember
2010,
now
available
on
the
Internet,
Jeffrey
Goldberg
starts
his
more
than
40
pagepaper;Iamtakingtheessentialideasfromitinordertoenlightenthereaders.
It is possible that at some point in the next 12 months, the imposition of devastating
economicsanctionsonthe IslamicRepublicof Iranwillpersuade its leaders toceasetheir
pursuitofnuclearweapons. []It ispossible,aswell, thatfoilingoperationsconducted
by the intelligenceagenciesof Israel, theUnitedStates,GreatBritain,andotherWestern
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powers[]willhavehinderedIransprogressinsomesignificantway.Itisalsopossible
that President Obama, who has said on more than a few occasions that he finds the
prospectof
a
nuclear
Iran
unacceptable,
will
order
a
military
strike
against
the
countrys
mainweaponsanduraniumenrichmentfacilities.
I am not engaging in a thought exercise, or a onemanwar game,when I discuss the
plausibilityandpotentialconsequencesofan Israelistrikeon Iran. Israelhas twicebefore
successfullyattackedanddestroyedanenemysnuclearprogram.In1981,Israeliwarplanes
bombed the Iraqi reactoratOsirak,haltingforever,as it turnedoutSaddamHusseins
nuclear ambitions; and in 2007, Israeli planes destroyed aNorth Koreanbuilt reactor in
Syria.AnattackonIran,then,wouldbeunprecedentedonlyinscopeandcomplexity.
Ihave
been
exploring
the
possibility
that
such
a
strike
will
eventually
occur
for
more
than
sevenyears, []Inthemonthssincethen,Ihaveinterviewedroughly40currentandpast
Israelidecisionmakersaboutamilitarystrike,aswellasmanyAmericanandArabofficials.In
mostof these interviews, Ihaveaskeda simplequestion:what is thepercentagechance
that Israelwillattack the Iraniannuclearprogram in thenear future?Noteveryonewould
answer this question, but a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent
chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July. [] But I tested the consensus by
speaking to multiple sources both in and out of government, and of different political
parties.Citingtheextraordinarysensitivityofthesubject,mostspokeonlyreluctantly,and
oncondition
of
anonymity.
[]The
reasoning
offered
by
Israeli
decision
makers
was
uncomplicated: Iran is,atmost,one to three yearsaway fromhavingabreakoutnuclear
capability[]andthemostcrucialcomponentof Israelinationalsecuritydoctrine,atenet
thatdatesbacktothe1960s[]isthatnoregionaladversaryshouldbeallowedtoachieve
nuclearparitywiththerebornandstillbesiegedJewishstate.
Inourconversationbeforehisswearingin,Netanyahuwouldnotframetheissueinterms
ofnuclearparity[]Instead,heframedtheIranianprogramasathreatnotonlytoIsrael
buttoallofWesterncivilization.
Whenthe
wide
eyed
believer
gets
hold
of
the
reins
of
power
and
the
weapons
of
mass
death,thentheworldshouldstartworrying,andthatswhatishappeninginIran.
In our conversation, Netanyahu refused to discuss his timetable for action, or even
whether he was considering military preemption of the Iranian nuclear program.
[]Netanyahusbelief is that Iran isnot Israelsproblemalone; it is theworldsproblem,
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and theworld, ledby theUnitedStates, isdutybound tograpplewith it.ButNetanyahu
does not place great faith in sanctionsnot the relatively weak sanctions against Iran
recentlypassed
by
the
United
Nations
Security
Council,
nor
the
more
rigorous
ones
being
putinplacebytheU.S.anditsEuropeanallies.
But,basedonmyconversationswithIsraelidecisionmakers,thisperiodofforbearance,in
whichNetanyahuwaitstoseeiftheWestsnonmilitarymethodscanstopIran,willcometo
anendthisDecember.
TheNetanyahugovernment isalready intensifying itsanalyticeffortsnot juston Iran,but
onasubjectmany Israelishavedifficultyunderstanding:PresidentObama.The Israelisare
struggling to answer what is for them the most pressing question: are there any
circumstancesunder
which
President
Obama
would
deploy
force
to
stop
Iran
from
going
nuclear?Everythingdependsontheanswer.
Irandemandstheurgentattentionoftheentireinternationalcommunity,andinparticular
theUnitedStates,withitsunparalleledabilitytoprojectmilitaryforce.Thisisthepositionof
manymoderateArableadersaswell.Afewweeksago,inuncommonlydirectremarks,the
ambassadoroftheUnitedArabEmiratestotheUnitedStates,YousefalOtaiba,toldme
[]thathiscountrywouldsupportamilitarystrikeon Iransnuclearfacilities.[]hesaid.
Small,rich,vulnerablecountries intheregiondonotwanttobetheoneswhosticktheir
fingerinthebigbullyseye,ifnobodysgoingtocometotheirsupport.
SeveralArab leadershavesuggestedthatAmericasstanding intheMiddleEastdepends
on itswillingness to confront Iran.They argue selfinterestedly that an aerialattackon a
handfulof Iranianfacilitieswouldnotbeascomplicatedorasmessyas,say, invading Iraq.
ThisisnotadiscussionabouttheinvasionofIran,oneArabforeignministertoldme.We
arehoping for thepinpoint strikingof severaldangerous facilities.America coulddo this
veryeasily.
Barack Obama has said any number of times that he would find a nuclear Iran
unacceptable.
[]A
nuclear
Iran
would
be
a
game
changing
situation,
not
just
in
the
Middle East, but around the world. Whatever remains of our nuclear nonproliferation
framework, I think,wouldbegin todisintegrate.Youwouldhave countries in theMiddle
Eastwhowouldseethepotentialneedtoalsoobtainnuclearweapons.
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ButtheIsraelisaredoubtfulthatamanwhopositionedhimselfastheantithesisofGeorge
W. Bush, author of invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq, would launch a preemptive
attackon
a
Muslim
nation.
Weallwatchedhisspeech inCairo,asenior Israeliofficialtoldme,referringtotheJune
2009 speech in which Obama attempted to reset relations with Muslims by stressing
Americancooperativenessand respect for Islam.Wedontbelieve thathe is thesortof
personwhowould launchadaring strikeon Iran.Weareafraidhewould seeapolicyof
containinganuclearIranratherthanattackingit.
Bushwastwoyearsago,butthe Iranianprogramwasthesameandthe intentwasthe
same, the Israeliofficial toldme.So IdontpersonallyexpectObama tobemoreBush
thanBush.
If the Israelis reach the firm conclusion thatObamawill not, under any circumstances,
launchastrikeonIran,thenthecountdownwillbeginforaunilateralIsraeliattack.
a strike on Iran, Israeli intelligence officials believe, could provoke allout retaliation by
IransLebanesesubsidiary,Hezbollah,whichnowpossesses,bymostintelligenceestimates,
asmanyas45,000rocketsat leastthreetimesasmanyas ithad inthesummerof2006,
duringthelastroundoffightingbetweenthegroupandIsrael.)
Netanyahu
is
not
unique
in
his
understanding
of
this
challenge;
several
of
the
prime
ministerswhoprecededhimcast Irans threat insimilarlyexistential terms. []Hehasa
deepsenseofhis role inJewishhistory,MichaelOren, IsraelsambassadortotheUnited
States,toldme.
JeffreyGoldberggoesonforseveralpagestotellthestoryofNetanyahusfather,BenZion,
whomheconsiderstobethemostoutstandinghistorianintheworldonthesubjectofthe
Spanish Inquisition and other important merits, and who recently celebrated his 100th
birthday.
BenjaminNetanyahu
is
not
known
in
most
quarters
for
his
pliability
on
matters
concerning
Palestinians, though he has been trying lately tomeet at least some of BarackObamas
demandsthathemovethepeaceprocessforward.
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At theendof thispartofhisarticle,Goldbergcarriesonwiththeanalysisof thecomplex
situation. Attimesheisrathertoughanalyzinga2001commentarybytheformerpresident
ofIran,
Hashemi
Rafsanjani,
in
which
he
is
certainly
speaking
about
a
bomb
that
would
destroyIsrael;athreatthatwascriticizedevenbytheleftwingforcesthatareNetanyahus
enemies.
ThechallengesposedbyanuclearIranaremoresubtlethanadirectattack,Netanyahutold
me. [] Iransmilitantproxieswouldbe able to fire rocketsandengage inother terror
activitieswhile enjoying a nuclear umbrella. []Instead of being a local event, however
painful, it becomes a global one. Second, this development would embolden Islamic
militants farandwide,onmany continents,whowouldbelieve that this isaprovidential
sign,thatthisfanaticismisontheultimateroadtotriumph..
Youdcreateagreatseachangeinthebalanceofpowerinourarea,hewenton.
Other Israeli leadersbelieve that themere threatofanuclearattackby Irancombined
withthechronicmenacingofIsraelscitiesbytherocketforcesofHamasandHezbollah
willprogressivelyunderminethecountrysabilitytoretainitsmostcreativeandproductive
citizens..[]Therealtestforus istomakeIsraelsuchanattractiveplace,suchacutting
edgeplaceinhumansociety,education,culture,science,qualityoflife,thatevenAmerican
Jewishyoungpeoplewanttocomehere.
Patriotismin
Israel
runs
very
high,
according
to
numerous
polls,
and
it
seemed
unlikely
to
me that mere fear of Iran could drive Israels Jews to seek shelter elsewhere. But one
leadingproponentofan Israeli attackon Iransnuclear facilities,EphraimSneh,a former
generaland formerdeputydefenseminister, isconvinced that if Irancrossed thenuclear
threshold, thevery ideaof Israelwouldbeendangered.Thesepeoplearegoodcitizens,
andbravecitizens,butthedynamicsof lifearesuchthat ifsomeonehasascholarshipfor
twoyearsatanAmericanuniversityandtheuniversityoffershimathirdyear,theparents
willsay,Goahead,remainthere,SnehtoldmewhenImetwithhiminhisofficeoutsideof
TelAvivnot longago.IfsomeonefinishesaPh.D.and theyareoffereda job inAmerica,
theymight
stay
there.
It
will
not
be
that
people
are
running
to
the
airport,
[]The
bottom
line is thatwewouldhaveanacceleratedbraindrain.Andan Israel that isnotbasedon
entrepreneurship,thatisnotbasedonexcellence,willnotbetheIsraeloftoday.
OneMondayeveninginearlysummer,IsatintheofficeofthedecidedlynongoyisheRahm
Emanuel, theWhiteHousechiefofstaff,and listened toseveralNationalSecurityCouncil
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officials he had gathered at his conference table explainin so many wordswhy the
JewishstateshouldtrustthenonJewishpresidentoftheUnitedStatestostop Iranfrom
crossingthe
nuclear
threshold.
Oneofthoseatthetable,BenRhodes,adeputynationalsecurityadviserwhoservedas
theleadauthoroftherecentNationalSecurityStrategyfortheUnitedStatesaswellasof
thepresidentsconciliatoryCairospeech,suggestedthatIransnuclearprogramwasaclear
threat to American security, and that the Obama administration responds to national
securitythreatsinthemannerofotheradministrations.Wearecoordinatingamultifaceted
strategy to increasepressureon Iran, but that doesntmeanweve removed any option
from the table, Rhodes said. This president has shown again and again thatwhen he
believes it isnecessarytouseforcetoprotectAmericannationalsecurity interests,hehas
doneso.Werenotgoingtoaddresshypotheticalsaboutwhenandifwewouldusemilitary
force,butIthinkwevemadeitclearthatwearentremovingtheoptionofforcefromany
situationinwhichournationalsecurityisaffected.
Emanuel,whosedefaultstateisexasperation[](AformerBushadministrationofficial
toldmethathispresidentfacedtheoppositeproblem:Bush,boggeddownbytwowarsand
believingthat Iranwasntthatclosetocrossingthenuclearthreshold,opposedtheuseof
forceagainstIransprogram,andmadehisviewclear,butnoonebelievedhim).
Atonepoint,Iputforwardtheideathatforabundantlyobviousreasons,fewpeoplewould
believeBarackObamawouldopenupa third front in thegreaterMiddleEast.Oneof the
officials responded heatedly, What have we done that would allow you to reach the
conclusionthatwethinkthatanuclearIranwouldrepresentatolerablesituation?
Obama administrationofficials,particularly in thePentagon,have several times signaled
unhappinessatthepossibilityofmilitarypreemption.InApril,theundersecretaryofdefense
forpolicy,MicheleFlournoy,toldreportersthatmilitaryforceagainstIranwasoffthetable
inthenearterm.She laterbacktracked,butAdmiralMichaelMullen,thechairmanofthe
JointChiefsofStaff,hasalsocriticizedthe ideaofattacking Iran.[]Inanareathatsso
unstableright
now,
we
just
dont
need
more
of
that.
PresidentObama has by nomeans ruled out counterproliferation by force.. []Gary
Samore, the National Security Council official who oversees the administrations
counterproliferationagenda,toldmethattheIsraelisagreewithAmericanassessmentsthat
Iransuraniumenrichmentprogramisplaguedwithproblems.
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we can measure, based on the IAEA reports, that the Iranians are not doing well,
Samoresaid.Theparticularcentrifugemachines theyre runningarebasedonan inferior
technology.They
are
running
into
some
technical
difficulties,
partly
because
of
the
work
weve done to deny them access to foreign components. When they make the parts
themselves,theyaremakingpartsthatdonthavequalitycontrol.
DennisRoss, the formerMiddleEastpeacenegotiatorwho iscurrentlyaseniorNational
Security Council official, said during the meeting that he believes the Israelis now
understand thatAmericaninstigatedmeasureshave slowed Iransprogress, and that the
administrationisworkingtoconvincetheIsraelisandotherpartiesintheregionthatthe
sanctionsstrategyhasachanceofworking.
Thepresident
has
said
he
hasnt
taken
any
options
off
the
table,
but
lets
take
a
look
at
why
we think this strategy could work, []Last June, when they hadnt responded to our
bilateraloutreach,thepresidentsaidthatwewouldtakestockbySeptember.
Ross[]thesanctionsIrannowfacesmayaffecttheregimesthinking.Thesanctionsare
going to cut across the board. They are taking place in the context of Iranian
mismanagementthe Iranians are going to have to cut [food and fuel] subsidies; they
alreadyhavepublicalienation; theyhavedivision intheelites,andbetween theelitesand
therestofthecountry.
Onequestion
no
administration
official
seems
eager
to
answer
is
this:
what
will
the
United
States do if sanctions fail? Several Arab officials complained to me that the Obama
administrationhasnotcommunicateditsintentionstothem,evengenerally.
ObamasvoterslikeitwhentheadministrationshowsthatitdoesntwanttofightIran,but
this isnotadomesticpolitical issue, the foreignministersaid.Iranwillcontinueon this
recklesspath,unlesstheadministrationstartstospeakunreasonably.Thebestwaytoavoid
strikingIranistomakeIranthinkthattheU.S.isabouttostrikeIran.Wehavetoknowthe
presidents intentionson thismatter.Wearehisallies. (According to twoadministration
sources,
this
issue
caused
tension
between
President
Obama
and
his
recently
dismissed
directorofnationalintelligence,AdmiralDennisBlair.Accordingtothesesources,Blair,who
wassaidtoputgreatemphasisontheIranianthreat,toldthepresidentthatAmericasArab
alliesneededmorereassurance.Obamareportedlydidnotappreciatetheadvice.)
InIsrael,ofcourse,officialsexpendenormousamountsofenergytounderstandPresident
Obama,despitetheassurancestheyhavereceivedfromEmanuel,Ross,andothers.
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Not longago, thechiefof Israelimilitary intelligence,MajorGeneralAmosYadlin,paida
secret visit to Chicago to meet with Lester Crown, the billionaire whose family owns a
significantportion
of
General
Dynamics,
the
military
contractor.
Crown
[]
I
share
with
theIsraelisthefeelingthatwecertainlyhavethemilitarycapabilityandthatwehavetohave
thewilltouseit.TheriseofIranisnotinthebestinterestoftheU.S.'
I support thepresident,Crown said.But Iwish [administrationofficials]werea little
moreoutgoing in theway theyhave talked. Iwould feelmorecomfortable if Iknew that
theyhadthewilltousemilitaryforce,asa lastresort.Youcannotthreatensomeoneasa
bluff.Therehastobeawilltodoit.
Severalofficialsevenasked if I consideredObama tobeanantiSemite. Ianswered this
questionby
quoting
Abner
Mikva,
the
former
congressman,
federal
judge,
and
mentor
to
Obama,who famouslysaid in2008,I thinkwhen this isallover,peoplearegoing tosay
thatBarackObamaisthefirstJewishpresident.IexplainedthatObamahasbeensaturated
withtheworkofJewishwriters,legalscholars,andthinkers,andthatalargenumberofhis
friends, supporters, and aides are Jewish. But philoSemitism does not necessarily equal
sympathyforNetanyahusLikudPartycertainlynotamongAmericanJews,whoare, like
thepresidenttheyvotedforinoverwhelmingnumbers,generallysupportiveofatwostate
solution,anddubiousaboutJewishsettlementoftheWestBank.
RahmEmanuel suggested that theadministration is trying to threadaneedle:providing
unshakeablesupportforIsrael;protectingitfromtheconsequencesofanIraniannuclear
bomb;butpushingittowardcompromisewiththePalestinians.[]hepastsixIsraeliprime
ministersincludingNetanyahu,whoduringhis firstterm inthe late1990s, tohisfathers
chagrin, compromised with the Palestiniansto buttress his case. Rabin, Peres,
Netanyahu,Barak,Sharon,Olmerteveryoneofthempursuedsomeformofanegotiated
settlement,whichwouldhavebeeninIsraelsownstrategicinterest,hesaid.Therehave
beenplentyofother threatswhile successive Israeli governmentshavepursued apeace
process.
Israelshould
consider
carefully
whether
a
military
strike
would
be
worth
the
trouble
it
would unleash. Im not sure that given the time line, whatever the time line is, that
whatever they did, they wouldnt stop the nuclear program, he said. They would be
postponing.
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ItwasthenthatIrealizedthat,onsomesubjects,theIsraelisandAmericansarestilltalking
pasteachother.
INMYCONVERSATIONSwithformerIsraeliairforcegeneralsandstrategists,theprevalent
tonewascautious.ManypeopleIinterviewedwereready,onconditionofanonymity,tosay
whyanattackonIransnuclearsiteswouldbedifficultforIsrael.AndsomeIsraeligenerals,
liketheirAmericancolleagues,questionedthevery ideaofanattack.Our timewouldbe
better spent lobbying Barack Obama to do this, rather than trying this ourselves, one
generaltoldme.Weareverygoodatthiskindofoperation,but it isabigstretchforus.
TheAmericanscandothiswithaminimumofdifficulty,bycomparison.This istoobigfor
us.
Theseplanes
would
have
to
return
home
quickly,
in
part
because
Israeli
intelligence
believes that Iranwould immediatelyorderHezbollah to fire rockets at Israeli cities, and
IsraeliairforceresourceswouldbeneededtohuntHezbollahrocketteams.
in the event of a unilateral Israeli strike on Iran, his mission would be to combat
Hezbollah rocket forces. []tokeepHezbollah in reserveuntil Irancancross thenuclear
threshold.
Hezbollahlostalotofhismen.[] Thatisonereasonwehavehadfouryearsofquiet.
WhathaschangedinfouryearsisthatHezbollahhasincreaseditsmissilecapability,butwe
haveincreased
our
capabilities
as
well.
He
concluded
by
saying,
in
reference
to
a
potential
IsraelistrikeonIran,OurreadinessmeansthatIsraelhasfreedomofaction.
America,too,wouldlookcomplicitinanIsraeliattack,evenifithadnotbeenforewarned.
Theassumptionoften,butnotalways,correctthatIsraelactsonlywiththeapprovalof
theUnitedStatesisafeatureoflifeintheMiddleEast,anditisonetheIsraelissaytheyare
taking into account. I spoke with several Israeli officials who are grappling with this
question,amongothers:what ifAmerican intelligence learnsaboutIsraeli intentionshours
beforethescheduled launchofanattack?It isanightmareforus,oneoftheseofficials
told
me.
What
if
President
Obama
calls
up
Bibi
and
says,
We
know
what
youre
doing.
Stop
immediately.Dowestop?Wemighthaveto.Adecisionhasbeenmadethatwecantlieto
theAmericansaboutourplans.Wedontwanttoinformthembeforehand.Thisisfortheir
sakeandforours.Sowhatdowedo?Thesearethehardquestions.
ManyIsraelisthinktheIraniansarebuildingAuschwitz.Wehavetoletthemknowthatwe
havedestroyedAuschwitz,orwehavetoletthemknowthatwetriedandfailed.
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Thereare,ofcourse, Israeli leaderswhobelieve thatattacking Iran is too risky. []We
dontwantpoliticianstoputusinabadpositionbecauseofthewordShoah,onegeneral
said.
Afterstaringat thephotographof the Israeliairforce flyoverofAuschwitzmore thana
dozendifferenttimesinmorethanadozendifferentoffices,Icametoseethecontradiction
atitscore.IftheJewishphysicistswhocreatedIsraelsnucleararsenalcouldsomehowhave
rippedaholeinthespacetimecontinuumandsentasquadronoffightersbackto1942,
BenjaminNetanyahufeels,forreasonsofnationalsecurity,thatifsanctionsfail,hewillbe
forcedtotakeaction.ButanIsraeliattackonIransnuclearfacilities,successfulornot,may
causeIrantoredouble itseffortsthistimewithameasureof internationalsympathyto
createa
nuclear
arsenal.
And
it
could
cause
chaos
for
America
in
the
Middle
East.
[]Peres
seestheIraniannuclearprogramaspotentiallycatastrophic,[]WhenIaskedifhebelieved
inamilitaryoption,hesaid,WhyshouldIdeclaresomethinglikethat?
Basedonmonthsofinterviews,Ihavecometobelievethattheadministrationknowsitisa
nearcertaintythatIsraelwillactagainstIransoonifnothingornooneelsestopsthenuclear
program; []Earlier this year, I agreed with those, including many Israelis, Arabsand
Iranianswhobelieve there isnochance thatObamawouldever resort to force to stop
Iran; I still dont believe there is a great chance hewill takemilitary action in the near
futureforonething,thePentagonisnotablyunenthusiasticabouttheidea.ButObamais
clearlyseizedbytheissue.[]DenisMcDonough,thechiefofstaffoftheNationalSecurity
Council,toldme,WhatyouseeinIranistheintersectionofanumberofleadingprioritiesof
thepresident,whoseesaseriousthreattotheglobalnonproliferationregime,athreatof
cascadingnuclearactivities inavolatileregion,andathreattoaclosefriendoftheUnited
States,Israel.Ithinkyouseetheseveralstreamscomingtogether,whichaccountsforwhyit
issoimportanttous.
When IaskedPereswhathe thoughtofNetanyahuseffort tomake Israelscase to the
Obamaadministration,heresponded[]hiscountryshouldknowitsplace,andthatitwas
upto
the
American
president,
and
only
the
American
president,
to
decide
in
the
end
how
besttosafeguardthefutureoftheWest.Thestorywasabouthismentor,DavidBenGurion.
ShortlyafterJohnF.Kennedywaselectedpresident,BenGurionmethimattheWaldorf
AstoriainNewYork,Perestoldme.Afterthemeeting,KennedyaccompaniedBenGurion
to theelevatorandsaid, Mr.PrimeMinister, Iwant to tellyou, Iwaselectedbecauseof
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yourpeople,sowhatcanIdoforyouinreturn?BenGurionwasinsultedbythequestion.He
said, Whatyoucando isbeagreatpresidentof theUnitedStates.Youmustunderstand
thatto
have
a
great
president
of
the
United
States
is
a
great
event.
PereswentontoexplainwhathesawasIsraelstrueinterest.Wedontwanttowinover
thepresident,hesaid.Wewantthepresidenttowin.
JeffreyGoldberg
JeffreyMarkGoldberg isanAmericanIsraeli journalist. He isoneofthewritersandstaff
journalists on The Atlantic journal. Previously heworked for TheNew Yorker. Goldberg
mainlywriteson internationalsubjects,preferring theMiddleEastandAfrica. Somehave
called
him
the
most
influential
journalist
blogger
on
matters
dealing
with
Israel.
FidelCastroRuz
August25,2010
6:18p.m.