the value of earned value management - micro planning · 2014-03-24 · the value of earned value...
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THE VALUE OF EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENTPMI Pittsburgh Chapter Meeting
February 8, 2001
Marilyn McCauleyMcManagement Group703-455-0602703-455-0598 (f)[email protected]
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AGENDA
Twelve Reasons Why Programs FailProgram Management PrinciplesEarned Value Management’s Role in PMWhat is Earned Value ManagementHistory of Earned Value ManagementThe Value of Earned Value Management
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REASONS WHY PROGRAMS FAILJohn Gioia, Robbins Gioio, Inc., PM Network, November 1986
1. Understanding Program Complexity
2. Lack of Management Access and Internal Communication
3. Not Integrating the Key Elements of Project Management
4. No Measurable Controls
5. Requirements Creep
6. Ineffective Implementation Strategy
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REASONS WHY PROGRAMS FAIL7. A Software Tool is Not the Only Answer
8. Different Contractor and Customer Expectation
9. No Shared “Win-Win” Attitude
10. No Formal Project Management Education
11. Lack of Top Management Commitment and Sponsorship
12. Projects Not Viewed as a Business
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REASONS WHY PROJECTS FAIL1995 Standish Group Report
1. Incomplete requirements2. Lack of user involvement3. Lack of resources4. Unrealistic expectations5. Lack of executive support6. Changing requirements and specifications7. Lack of planning8. Didn’t need it any longer9. Lack of IT management10. Technology illiteracy
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PROGRAM MANAGEMENT PROCESSESInitiating Recognizing that a project or phase should begin
and committing to do so
Planning Devising and maintaining a workable scheme toaccomplish the business need that the project wasundertaken to address
Executing Coordinating people and other resources to carry outthe plan
Controlling Ensuring that project objectives are met by monitoringand measuring progress and taking corrective action when necessary
Closing Formalizing acceptance of the project or phase andbringing it to an orderly end
Source: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge
published by Project Management Institute
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EVM’S ROLE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Initiate
Close out
Control
Execute
Proj
ect m
anag
emen
t cyc
le
Plandevelop a realistic plan of the work scope, the budget, and the schedule
organize the work and the teams
program manager needs
authorize work properly
control changes understand variances
corrective actions forecast of final cost and schedule
performance reporting
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Earned Value Management
EVMS fits naturally into theProject Management Cycle
Initiate
Close out
Control
Execute
Proj
ect m
anag
emen
t cyc
le
Plan
program manager needs
develop a realistic plan of the work scope, the budget, and the schedule
organize the work and the teams
authorize work properly
control changes understand variances
corrective actions forecast of final cost and schedule
performance reporting
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WHAT IS EARNED VALUE MANAGMENT
EVMS IS THE PRIMARY PROJECT MANAGEMENTTOOL……
THAT INTEGRATES THE TECHNICAL, SCHEDULE, AND
COST OBJECTIVES OF THE CONTRACT OR WORK EFFORT
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WHAT IS EARNED VALUE VALUE
A Way To MeasureHow much work should be done?How much work was completed?How much did the work cost?How much is the job supposed to cost?What do we expect the job to cost
A Way To ManageThe best way known to integrate scope, schedules,
Resources and risk management
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EVM PROCESSES• PLAN - The supplier establishes a system to control management processes
– An integrated baseline plan is established- work is defined, scheduled, and resources are allocated
EXECUTE - Work and resources are driven down to lowest level for execution– Budgets are “earned” as work is completed = EARNED VALUE
CONTROL - The system is used to control changes to the baseline– Status provided against baseline
- schedule and cost variances are isolated- Problem assistance
- early warning- corrective plans
- Early insight provided into final estimated cost- Project manager uses EVMS data to manage and control
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FIVE CORE PRINCIPLES
Organize the project team and the scope of work,using a work breakdown structure. Each task should have a single WBS number and organizational code.
Schedule the tasks in a logical manner so that lower level schedule elements support other elements and the top level milestones.
Allocate the total budget resources to time-phased control accounts.
Establish objective means for measuring workaccomplishment. Budget should be earned in the same way that it was planned.
Control the project by analyzing cost and performance variances, assessing final costs, developing corrective actions, and controlling changes to the integrated baseline.
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1. DEFINE THE WORK AND ORGANIZE TEAMS
Planning is a 3 Step ProcessPlanning is a 3 Step Process
100
4060
1525
3030
2. SCHEDULE THE WORK
3. ALLOCATE BUDGETS
$
CONTRACT BUDGET BASE
TIMEIN
TEGRATE
D BASELIN
E
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Earned Value techniquesDiscrete
• physical, tangible end productApportioned
• discrete, dependent on another discrete work package• example: quality assurance• planned as historical estimating factor (e.g., 7%)
Level of Effort• no tangible end product• basis of measurement: time• when clock starts ticking, you automatically accumulate earned value• no schedule variance• example: management personnel
Should be a quantitative and discrete way to measure the workMay tie in with success criteria or technical measure
• e.g., successful completion of a specific test, reliability growth curve
ESTABLISH OBJECTIVE MEASURES
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FIVE BASIC PERFORMANCE DATAQUESTIONS & ANSWERS
QUESTION ANSWER ACRONYM
How much work should Budgeted Cost for BCWSbe done? Work Scheduled
How much work is done? Budgeted Cost for BCWPWork Performed
How much did the is done Actual Cost of ACWPwork cost? Work Performed
What was the total job Budget at Completion BAC supposed to cost?
What do we now expect the Estimate at Completion EACtotal job to cost?
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Schedule Variance
BC WSBC WP
of the work I scheduled to have done,how much did I budget for it to cost?
of the work I actually performed,how much did I budget for it to cost?
SCHEDULE VARIANCE is the difference between work scheduled and work performed (expressed in terms of budget dollars)
formula: SV $ = BCWP - BCWS
example: SV = BCWP - BCWS = $1,000 - $2,000 SV= -$1,000 (negative = behind schedule)
SCHEDULE VARIANCE is the difference between work scheduled and work performed (expressed in terms of budget dollars)
formula: SV $ = BCWP - BCWS
example: SV = BCWP - BCWS = $1,000 - $2,000 SV= -$1,000 (negative = behind schedule)
BU
DG
ET B
ASED
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Cost Variance
BC WPAC WP
of the work I actually performed,how much did I budget for it to cost?
of the work I actually performed,how much did it actually cost?
COST VARIANCE is the difference between budgeted costand actual cost
formula: CV $ = BCWP - ACWP
example: CV = BCWP - ACWP = $1,000 - $2,400 CV= -$1,400 (negative = cost overrun)
COST VARIANCE is the difference between budgeted costand actual cost
formula: CV $ = BCWP - ACWP
example: CV = BCWP - ACWP = $1,000 - $2,400 CV= -$1,400 (negative = cost overrun)
PER
FOR
MAN
CE
BAS
ED
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Variance at Completion (VAC)
B AC what the total job is supposedto cost
E AC what the total job is expectedto cost
VARIANCE AT COMPLETION is the difference between what the total job is supposed to cost and what the total job is now expected to cost.
FORMULA: VAC = BAC - EAC
Example: VAC = $5,000 - $7,500VAC = - $2,500 (negative = overrun)
VARIANCE AT COMPLETION is the difference between what the total job is supposed to cost and what the total job is now expected to cost.
FORMULA: VAC = BAC - EAC
Example: VAC = $5,000 - $7,500VAC = - $2,500 (negative = overrun)
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Estimate at Completion (EAC)defined as actual cost to date + estimated cost of work remainingsupplier develops comprehensive EAC at least annually
• reported by WBS in cost performance reportcustomer should develop a range of independent EACs for comparisonshould examine on monthly basisconsider the following in EAC generation
• performance to date• impact of approved corrective action plans• known/anticipated downstream problems• best estimate of the cost to complete remaining work
WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL COST?
ACWP + ETC = EAC
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Common EAC Formulae:
EAC = BACCPI
= ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
CPI3
=ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
.8(CPI) +.2(SPI)
= ACWPcum + Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
CPI * SPI
One method: statistical formulae
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THE VALUE OF EARNED VALUE MANAGEMENT
Early and accurate identification of trends and problems
Accurate picture of project statusCost, schedule and technical
Basis for course correction
Supports mutual goals of supplier and customerBring project in on schedule and cost
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Why do we needEVMS?
Course corrections are easier when you have time to make
small adjustments
It’s too late when you’re this close to the iceberg!
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EARNED VALUE EVOLUTIONDept of Defense Instructions – late 1960’3
Cost/Schedule Control Systems CriteriaFinancial Management SubcultureContractor “Validation” Procedures
Evolution in Late 1990’sValue reaffirmed Industry OwnershipPrinciples in Federal PolicyGlobal Acceptance of EVMApplication to DoD In-House ActivitiesEnterprise-Wide UtilizationCommercial Use
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ANSI/EIA-748-1998Earned Value Management Systems
INDUSTRY DEVELOPED GUIDELINES FOR EVALUATION OF SUPPLIER’S SYSTEM
32 Guidelines 1. Organization
2. Planning and Budgeting3. Accounting4. Analysis5. Revisions and Access to Data
Standard does not prescribe specific systems, software, or procedures, only general guidelines
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INTERNATIONAL USERSAUSTRALIA
CANADA
JAPAN
SWEDEN
UNITED KINGDOM
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REFERENCESINDUSTRY EVM STANDARD – ANSI/EIA-748-98
www.cpm-pmi.org
www.pmi.org
www.acq.osd.mil/pm
www.deskbook.osd.mil