the u.s. natural gas and shale production outlook
DESCRIPTION
The U.S. Natural Gas and Shale Production Outlook. for North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014 by Adam Sieminski, Administrator. The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
The U.S. Natural Gas and Shale Production Outlook
forNorth American Gas ForumSeptember 29, 2014
byAdam Sieminski, Administrator
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
2
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through July 2014 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
U.S. natural gas prices are expected to remain well below crude oil prices
3
energy spot prices2012 dollars per million Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case
history projections2012
Henry Hub natural gas spot price
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
Brent crude oil spot price
oil to gas price ratio:
7.1
ratio:3.6
4North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
marketed gas production
non-marketed gas production
Rig productivity has increased greatly, making rig count no longer correlated with production
Sources: Natural gas production figures from EIA Short-term Energy Outlook, rig counts from Baker Hughes
marketed natural gas production
total rig count
natural gas-directed rigs
oil-directed rigs
billion cubic feet per dayrig countNatural gas and oil-directed rig counts and natural gas marketed production
5North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
marketed gas production
non-marketed gas production
A larger share of new wells produce both oil and natural gas
natural gas only
oil only
oil and natural gas
Source: EIA based on DrillingInfo
Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years
6
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case; Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2014
Alaska
tight oil
other lower 48 states onshore
lower 48 states offshore
STEO September 2014 U.S. crude oil projection
2012projectionshistory projectionshistory
2012
Alaska
tight oil
other lower 48 states onshore
Reference casemillion barrels per day
High Oil and Gas Resource casemillion barrels per day
lower 48 states offshore
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day
7
U.S. dry natural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case
Associated with oilCoalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
AlaskaNon-associated offshore
Non-associated onshore
projectionshistory2012
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
billion cubic feet per day
8
U.S. dry gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case
projectionshistory
industrial*
electricpower
commercial
residential
transportation**
11.2
4.1
1.7
11.0
3.6
9.1
4.2
0.7
8.5
2.9
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel**Includes pipeline fuel
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
Manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term
9
manufacturing natural gas consumptionquadrillion British thermal units
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, Reference case
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
aluminumglass
iron and steel
paper
food
refining andrelated
bulk chemicals
other
metal-based
billion cubic feet per day
durables
manufacturing
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future
10
U.S. dry natural gastrillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
projectionshistory
2012
consumption
domestic supply
net exports
100
75
50
25
0
-25
billion cubic feet per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and High Oil and Gas Resource case
11North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference casetrillion cubic feet per year
exports to Mexico
exports to Canada
lower 48LNG exports
imports from Canada
LNG imports
High Oil and Gas Resource casetrillion cubic feet per year
billion cubic feet per day
0
5
20
15
10
-5
-10
For more information
North American Gas Forum September 29, 2014 12
U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/