THE UK ECONOMY UNSPUN!

Let’s get started…

According to the government our economy…

According to the government our economy…

According to the government our economy…

is on the mend thanks

to their austerity policies

However, that’s not entirely true

However, that’s not entirely true

Let’s start unspinning…

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

31000

They say: “There are a record number of people in work”

Number of people in work

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

31000

They say: “There are a record number of people in work”

Number of people in work

This is technically true but…

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

31000

…there are also a record number of people!

Number of people in work

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

31000

…and here’s how many jobs we’d need just to keep pace with the rising population!

Number of jobs needed to keep up with 2008 employment

Number of people in work

…there are also a record number of people!

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

They say: “Rising GDP is

a sign of recovery”

GDP

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

True, after a slump, GDP is on the rise again…

GDP

They say: “Rising GDP is

a sign of recovery”

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep-

11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep-

12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

GDP GDP Per Head

…but growth has been boosted

by a rising population

…and GDP per head is still lower than in mid 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

They say: “We need to slash spending as the national debt is so large”

Government Debt/GDP (%)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

They say: “We need to slash spending as the national debt is so large”

But, historically, it’s been much larger…

Government Debt/GDP (%)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

1855

-56

1859

-60

1863

-64

1867

-68

1871

-72

1875

-76

1879

-80

1883

-84

1887

-88

1891

-92

1895

-96

1899

-190

0 19

03-0

4 19

07-0

8 19

11-1

2 19

15-1

6 19

19-2

0 19

23-2

4 19

27-2

8 19

31-3

2 19

35-3

6 19

39-4

0 19

43-4

4 19

47-4

8 19

51-5

2 19

55-5

6 19

59-6

0 19

63-6

4 19

67-6

8 19

71-7

2 19

75-7

6 19

79-8

0 19

83-8

4 19

87-8

8 19

91-9

2 19

95-9

6 19

99-2

000

2003

-04

2007

-08

2011

-12

In reality, the UK has had much higher debt/GDP in the past…

They say: “We need to slash spending as the national debt is so large”

Government Debt/GDP (%) Government Debt/GDP since 1990, as shown on previous graph (%)

The UK economy is finally starting to grow again but the recovery has come three years later than hoped for.

The UK economy is finally starting to grow again but the recovery has come three years later than hoped for. The longest squeeze on incomes looks set to continue and we won’t get a real recovery until people see their real wages rising again.

We need investment in growth and jobs

We need investment in growth and jobs

not complacency & spin!

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