the transformative impact of industry 4.0 on china's automotive industry

TheTransformativeImpactofIndustry4.0onChina’sAutomotiveIndustry

BillRussoRobertZhangEmilyWangJackieWang

May2016

©2016GaoFengAdvisoryCompany

Introduction

The invention of the steam-powered loom by Edmund Cartwright in 1784 marked the start of the first industrial revolution (Industry 1.0). It allowed textile making to be done faster than if done by a human, and marked the beginning of mechanized production. The second revolution (Industry 2.0) came a century later and involved new forms of power (electricity), a more specialized workforce, and assembly line mass production methods. A century later, a third revolution (Industry 3.0) led to the incorporation of advanced electronics and information technology in order to improve automation. Today, we are entering into the fourth stage of the industrial revolution (Industry 4.0), representing the convergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) with the control of cyber-physical systems.

The introduction of Industry 4.0 will have a significant transformative impact across a range of industries, including automotive. We will consider the impact of these developments on China’s automotive industry along four dimensions of vision, trends, strategy and organization.

© 2016 Gao Feng Advisory Company


TheTransformativeImpactofIndustry4.0onChina’sAutomotiveIndustry3

The term Industry 4.0 originated in 2011 from a high-tech strategy project sponsored by the German government which promoted the computerization of manufacturing. Since then, China’s government has been actively embracing the principles of Industry 4.0. In October 2014, China and Germany signed the Sino-Germany Cooperation Action Plan, under the theme “Design Innovation Together”. This plan facilitates bilateral cooperation by creating a China-Germany “Industry 4.0 dialogue”, and incorporating the Industry 4.0 topic into the China-Germany Standardization Cooperation Commission. Meanwhile, the two countries have committed to improving cooperation in areas such as mobile internet, Internet of Things, cloud computing and big data, while providing policy and regulatory support.

In addition, China is also promoting “Made in China 2025” and “Internet +” as themes within its 13th 5-year plan. “Made in China 2025” is an effort to drive manufacturing innovation, strengthen the industrial base and promote breakthroughs in ten key industrial sectors - with the intention of promoting the international competitiveness and image of Chinese brands. On the other hand, the “Internet +” strategy emphasizes integration of the mobile internet, cloud computing, big data and the Internet of Things with modern manufacturing.

While such efforts are a good start, there is a general lack of understanding among business, academia and government regarding the developments related to Industry 4.0. Given China’s rapid industrialization and economic development, it is not surprising that there may be different opinions of where China stands in the development of its various industrial sectors. For example, some view that China’s automotive industry may have reached the Industry 3.0 era from the hardware perspective, but from the software perspective it’s still in the 2.0 era, while the leadership mindset remains in the 1.0 era.

The China Rubber Industry Association, which works closely with automotive tire manufacturers, has stated that the “industry should not blindly pursue industry 4.0, as it needs migrate to 2.0, 3.0 before leaping to the intelligent 4.0 age.”


TheTransformativeImpactofIndustry4.0onChina’sAutomotiveIndustry4

From Industry 2.0 to Industry 4.0In the Industry 1.0 era, horses were initially used to power personal transportation. In 1886, the invention of the internal combustion engine marked the birth of the modern “automobile”. In 1908, Henry Ford’s introduction of the moving assembly line made automobile ownership affordable for the average wage earner. This marked the automotive industry’s evolution to Industry 2.0, and this new form of affordable personal mobility fundamentally changed the way we work and live.

In the Industry 3.0 period of the late 20th

century, technological advances further enhanced the productivity and efficiency of the auto industry. In this era of the modern automobile, vehicles were engineered to optimize highway driving speeds and occupant safety, while delivering solid on-highway performance.

During this period, there was a shift from Ford’s “Mass Production” paradigm to Toyota’s “Lean Production System”, with an emphasis on optimizing automotive supply chains and assembly operations. However, modern cars were assembled in a mass production environment very much rooted in early 20th century industrial practices.

A Vision of Industry 4.0 for the Automotive Industry

As we migrate to the Industry 4.0 era, the automotive industry is moving toward “Mass Customization” to enable a more personalized customer experience. Deployment of new technology in the form of alternative propulsion, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and autonomous driving are beginning to find their way into the mainstream. Composite materials and lightweight alloys are being used to optimize performance, and modern smart device connectivity with Internet of Vehicles (IoV) technology is finding its way into the automobile and transforming how humans and machines interact.

With the advancement of technology towards Industry 4.0, we can foresee a future with shortened model and upgrade cycles, and a higher degree of personalization. In the near future,personal mobility devices will be engineered for use in China’s urbanized context, designed specifically for city-use,to transport a few people and light cargo over short distances. Such devices will operate at lower driving speeds in cities, and utilize vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) crash avoidance technology, reducing crash protection requirements and enabling smaller and lighter vehicles. In addition, we believe there is a natural evolution from on-demand connected mobility solutions to the electrification of the transportation services fleet1.

1 China Drives the Future of Automotive Innovation, Gao Feng Viewpoint, by Bill Russo and Aloke Palsikar, October 2015.


5TheTransformativeImpactofIndustry4.0onChina’sAutomotiveIndustry

From Mass Production to Mass PersonalizationUnder the Industry 2.0 and Industry 3.0 paradigm, standardized production processes and lean manufacturing principles required production processes to be highly routine in order to ensure high quality and productivity. Advanced manufacturing techniques were devised in order to allow flexibility and enable customization of the product within an “envelope” of the product architecture. However, the objective of achieving a “lot size of 1” where every product is customizable, has not been fully achieved.

We envision a future where a “smart car” mobility solution is fully personalized to the individual user’s needs2. This individual would launch their Personal Mobility App (PMA), which is served by a cloud-based history of the user’s mobility profile. The first choice within the PMA would be whether the user would select the manner of payment for the mobility solution (by either owning the hardware or paying for the usage of it).

If they choose to own, an auto factory would allow the user to select a car type, choose a color and trim options, or even specify materials. Recommendations would be made based on the user’s mobility profile. An order would be scheduled and the factory and production would begin upon arrival of the personalized components. Whether owned or used, the smart mobility device would arrive directly to the door from an Industry 4.0 mobility solutions provider.

In short, Industry 4.0 will connect users, equipment and products in real time,

allowing factories to produce products that are fully personalized to the individual’s usage patterns and preferences. Industry 4.0 will connect consumers, equipment and products in real time and will improve the overall customer experience of mobility. Owners would have even more choices, perhaps including the option of a factory experience allowing the consumer to observe or even participate in the manufacturing process. Factories will produce based on individual orders and save order-to-delivery cost.

The Digital “Factory of the Future”The “factory of the future” will be an expert system based on the internet of things (IoT). This expert system will dynamically balance demand and supply by linking customers, factory equipment, and supply chains in real time, thereby reducing order-to-delivery cycle time and cost. Simultaneously, digital simulation technology used within advanced manufacturing engineering will shorten the time needed for factory design, and decrease cost through use of digital model simulation to optimize logistics processes.

With flexible production capability, factories will be able to produce more models on the same production line, saving investment in tooling. Key performance indicators will be self-monitored throughout the smart factory, allowing the diagnosis and optimization of the production processes. Direct communication between products and machines will ensure fully automatic production with traceability in the event of a failure at any point in the process.

2 Reimagining Mobility in the China Context, Gao Feng Viewpoint, by Bill Russo, Edward Tse, Alan Chan, and Alexander Loke, February 2016.


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Trend 1: Digitization of the Traditional Value ChainBefore the advent of the digital factory, production processes were largely determined according to the product design. If the product design changes, much of the manufacturing process would require adjustment. Recently, flexible manufacturing techniques would permit some adaptation of product design within a pre-determined product platform or architecture. While more efficient, this approach does not provide for “mass customization.”

The digital factory will employ Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) methods (see Exhibit 1) which leverage a core capability of simulation and virtual production to facilitate true simultaneous engineering of product and process design. With this capability, products can be simulated without investing in expensive soft-tooling of prototypes for trial-and-error pilot production.

As a result, production launch issues can be anticipated in a virtual environment, saving time and R&D cost. The core capabilities of PLM and process simulation as core capabilities will transform the traditional development process.

5 Key Trends Reshaping China’s Automotive Industry

Exhibit 1Product Lifecycle Management


Source: Siemens, Gao Feng Analysis


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Trend 2: A Consumer-to-Business (C2B) Model PrevailsThe traditional product-centric value chain where suppliers interact with manufacturers who sell to dealers who then sell to customers will be replaced with a user-centric value chain where customers value the experience of the product. In the Industry 1.0 – 3.0 era, production was a “push system” which delivered products to be sold to an established design. In the Industry 4.0 era, users within a “pull system” will demand a personalized solution and pay for the utility derived from the product.

A traditional Business-to-Consumer B2C product-centric paradigm is depicted in Exhibit 2, and suggests a linear chain from procurement through after-sales service. While end-users may have input to design, their experience is often separated by years from the decisions that shaped this design.

The Industry 4.0 paradigm is shifting towards a Consumer-to-Business (C2B) model as shown in Exhibit 3. In this business model, end-users are engaged throughout the value chain via community marketing, crowd-sourced design optimization, flexible production and socialized customer relationship management.

Exhibit 2Traditional Model: B2C Product-Centric Value Chain

Exhibit 3The new model: C2B user-centric value chain


Source: http://www.huxiu.com, Gao Feng analysis

Source: http://www.huxiu.com, Gao Feng analysis


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Trend 3: Connectivity Transforms the Vehicle into a Platform for ServicesFour key technological capabilities are driving a fundamental shift in industrial technologies: cloud computing, big data, social networks and mobile/connected technologies. The convergence of these technologies will revolutionize business, society, and industry - disrupting traditional business models and creating new ones.

Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are challenged to effectively develop processes for integrating technology into their product lines and thereby find new ways of achieving a competitive advantage in the marketplace. This will also spark the creation of new business models which are adapted to new mobility trends which view the vehicle as a platform for services.

In addition, connected car technology is already revolutionizing the auto industry and is likely to be one of the key innovation frontiers for the auto industry of the coming years. Big data services are at the core of intelligent mobility and as a result, a services-based ecosystem powered by Internet of Things is rapidly emerging. As depicted in Exhibit 4, connectivity will transform the automobile into an intelligent platform for an explosive variety of in-vehicle and external services. Automakers and suppliers are deploying connectivity features which seamlessly integrate with users’ personal devices and cloud-based content delivery services -connecting the driver and users to multiple external points of information which transform the car into a platform for managing everyday life tasks.

Exhibit 4Connected Vehicles


Source: Gao Feng analysis


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Trend 4: Evolution From “Transportation Hardware" to “Connected Mobility Solutions"

Cars are set to become technologically and socially connected platforms, with the capability to facilitate interaction between vehicles and users with external objects, infrastructure and even enterprises. Independent of whether the car is individually owned or accessed via a mobility service, the experience of driving will be highly personalized and flexible with the reliance on cloud computing for storing and processing of individual data (including usage parameters such as seat adjustmentsand music preferences), making the experience highly tailored to the individual user.

Users of mobility services will be empowered with choices based on

seamlessly integrated, processed real-time data including traffic information and V2V communication, all accessible via their infotainment system or their personal connectivity devices, a illustrated in Exhibit 5.

Collaborations among OEMs and Information and Communications Technology (ICT) firms are already starting to blur the line of separation between the business models of hardware companies and mobility solutions providers. Leading examples include cooperation between Alibaba and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC), LeEco and Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation (BAIC), and Huawei with Dongfeng Motors and Changan Auto. In all cases, these companies are experimenting in the boundary between the traditional product-centric value chain and the emerging services-centric connected mobility value chain.

Exhibit 5The Future Car is a Connected Mobility Platform


Source: Gao Feng analysis

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Trend 5: “Big Data” and Ecosystem-Based Engagement with Mobility Solutions UsersUntil recently, mobility needs were served in a “binary” manner - either through public transportation services such as metro (rail), bus, and taxi or via individually-owned personal mobility devices (automobiles, bicycles). With the emergence and pervasiveness of mobile internet technology, a new form of on-demand mobility service has rapidly emerged, especially in China.

Connected car services providers (car sharing, navigation services, auto insurance, web credit, finance/leasing services, software applications, cloud services, multimedia services, etc.) will require access to the central car computer bus in order to offer “big data” derived services to the driver and the passengers in the car.

Visionary companies are reimagining mobility as frequent engagement between a user and an ecosystem services provider, which stands in stark contrast with the traditional model of a transaction between an owner and a manufacturer.


Competitive Strategies in the Industry 4.0 EraExploring the Connected Mobility Solutions FringeAutomakers and their suppliers must consider expanding their focus beyond the core hardware in order to maintain customer engagement and maximize value capture in the Industry 4.0 era. In a world of pervasive connectivity, consumer loyalties often gravitate to the products and services which are delivered through providers who have the deepest insight on the daily usage patterns and mobility habits of the mobility end user.

Realizing growth potential in this area requires a strategic transformation of traditional manufacturers to a new business model which captures a broader range of services (the mobility solutions “fringe”) which are enabled via the connected mobility platform (the mobility “core”). Successfully transforming in this manner requires a recognition that customers are not simply seeking to own hardware, but rather view the mobility platform as a part of their mobile lifestyle. Services needed in that broader concept of the value chain could be captured as part of the new connected mobility ecosystem.

In an effort to capture such opportunities, leading automakers and suppliers are expanding their focus beyond their core hardware business:

▪ BMW expanded its mission statement from “the world’s leading provider of premium products,” to include the words “and premium services for individual mobility.”


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▪ Mark Fields, CEO of Ford Motor Company, has launched a Smart Mobility division, stating that “we need to keep investing in our core business, which is making and selling cars and trucks…but we’re also a mobility company, and that means encouraging an innovation mindset, challenging assumptions and moving fast.”

▪ Bosch, a German Tier-1 supplier of components, has launched its own-branded aftermarket car services network.

▪ Federal-Mogul, a US auto component supplier, has established a joint venture with China Automotive Import and Export Co., Ltd (CAIEC), an automotive dealer operator, to offer an aftermarket vehicle repair business.

Competition and Collaboration Among EcosystemsIn the Industry 4.0 era, both traditional and new automotive enterprises will compete to deliver value to both owners and end users.


Some of these businesses will embrace the expanded view of the value chain and create their own ecosystem of mobility solutions, while others will either formally or informally collaborate with a partner-led ecosystem.

Disruptive Chinese tech firms are actively experimenting in building such mobility ecosystems, typically in partnership with traditional automakers and suppliers. For example, LeEco (formerly LeTV) has built its own Super Electric-car Ecosystem (SEE) which views the smart car as the third space in an overall connected lifestyle (as depicted in Exhibit 6). Recognizing that the capabilities needed to fulfill this vision are outside of the former LeTVbusiness scope, LeEco is forming new ventures and collaborative partnerships with Faraday Future, Aston Martin, and others in order to fill capability gaps.

Meanwhile, Alibaba builds up its ecosystem with a focus on mobility services with big data as its core, focused on adding value along the mobility experience journey.

Exhibit 6The Future Car is a Connected Mobility Platform


Source: LeTV, Alibaba, Gao Feng analysis

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Competing in the Industry 4.0 era will require a new set of organizational capabilities, which will require a new talent acquisition and business development strategy. For example, Information Technology professionals must not only be capable of handling corporate database and internal user requirements, but must also be capable of building sticky ecosystems for the B2C customer, often in collaboration with an ICT partner. Also, some of the automotive and ICT companies will collaborate to extend big data capability as well. ICT companies may also acquire traditional automotive capabilities in order to extend the reach of their mobility ecosystems.

In addition, the new model of industry collaboration would create the need for innovative approaches to extend capabilities via inorganic means. Many companies are creating innovation labs and setting up sources of funding for new ventures in order to build and formulate the new automotive Industry 4.0 ecosystem. For example, SAIC and Alibaba established a foundation for a “connected-car fund” with a pool of RMB 1 Billion, and launched a joint venture to create a platform for development and operation of the web-enabled car.

Perhaps even more fundamentally, competing in the Industry 4.0 era will require that traditional companies see beyond their traditional product-centric mindset in order to truly understand the experiences that their smart, connected products can enable.


Too often, traditional companies are fixated on the requirements of whoever is next in the linear B2B2C value chain. For example:

▪ A European folding and pasting machine company focuses on the packaging needs and primarily interacts with color printing and corrugated paper companies. They rarely get in touch with the end consumers who purchase the products from distributors who serve their food or pharmaceutical industry clients.

▪ An automotive component supplier focuses on standardizing production processes to further reduce costs as per the demands of the automotive OEM. The supplier has no B2C interactions with the car owners of fleet operators.

However, a C2B consumer-centric mindset is very different as it emphasizes the needs from an end user perspective. The focus is on improving customer satisfaction and thereby seeks to profit by delivering more value. For example, Alibaba’s Taobao e-Commerce platform, Tao Factory, is designed to fully satisfy customer needs through highly flexible production. It has built a capability of delivering make-to-order products by connecting Taobao customers with sellers and factories to realize quick production of custom products. This was made possible by consolidating small producers in the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang which are capable of delivering a minimum order quantity of 30 products, and upgrading the factories with more flexible production equipment. All of this is done with direct connectivity to the end user.


Building a Disruption-Ready Organization

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Competing in the Industry 4.0 will require a fundamental transformation of the mindset of the automotive industry and its leadership in order to build the new ecosystem-based business model that can deliver value in new ways to the end users of the car. In the future, the automotive industry must develop a “4.0-DNA” in order to successfully transform itself.


In a world of digital factories, the skills needed in the workforce will also fundamentally change. As a Siemens executive once commented: “Take our Amberg base as an example, even the average machine operators are technicians with a master’s degree or above.”

The focus of the workforce will shift from direct production toward indirect production planning, quality, procurement and logistics. In such an environment, people will be more engaged in creative and knowledge work, and less involved in routine tasks which will increasingly be automated.

In the period of transition, employees can contribute to the development of this new mindset, since a new corporate culture based on creative management is a key factor for the success of the digital factory. As business strategies and production patterns transform, organizational structures will significantly change under the influence of Industry 4.0. In such an environment, organizational structures are likely to evolve from a hierarchical “pyramid” to a more horizontal “platform.”

A Paradigm Shift for the Automotive IndustryAs the business model evolves, Industry 4.0 companies must build a more diverse talent pool. Beyond the core mechanical and manufacturing engineering talent which has guided the industry for the past century, there will also be high demand for electronics and information technology professionals to build the mobility ecosystems and IoV solutions, as well as operate and optimize the smart manufacturing system that produces the connected products that serve that ecosystem. In addition, Industry 4.0 companies will require even more design and creative talent to further innovate new connected products and services in an industry operating at “internet speed.”


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Non-Automotive Case Example: Haier’s Connected FactoryAs an example, Haier, a leading Chinese home appliance manufacturer, has started a Connected Factory program (see Exhibit 7) which allows customers to participate in the whole process including interface, design, production and service. The interaction along this chain is transparent and visible to all the participants.

In 2013, Haier announced the entrance into its fifth “Networking Strategy” development stage. The focus of this stage is to build a “border-free enterprise, manager-free management, and scale-free supply chains”. Middle management has been eliminated to encourage workers to form self-managed teams, while incentives are provided for workers to engage customers and suppliers to develop new ideas.

Exhibit 7 Haier’s Connected Factory

In 2014, Fast Company magazine picked Haier as one of the world’s most innovative companies for its flat management innovation. To drive entrepreneurial innovation among employees and enable rapid adaptation to market changes, Haier encourages its staff to track evolving market trends and form autonomous project teams to address emerging opportunities. The recently launched Tianzun air conditioner was developed by a self-managing group that recognised growing customer demand for a more flexible and responsive air conditioning unit, through an online engagement programme involving more than 670,000 Internet users.

Haier also launched the Haier Open Partnership Ecosystem (HOPE) platform to create an open innovationecosystem, which is by far the largest in China. It enables communications andknowledge transfer between leading


Source: http://www.robot-china.com

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institutions such as MIT, Stanford and innovative companies such as 3M, Dow Chemical, BASF and many start-up makers on its HOPE community.

In addition, Haier has launched the “U+” platform to create an open innovation ecosystem. “U+” is a smart living platform that provides complete integration and enables consumers to manage the smart appliances from anywhere wirelessly. Nearly 300 companies, including Risco, Baidu Cloud, WeChatand JD have joined the U+ ecosystem.

Looking Forward

China’s auto industry is being digitally disrupted and is rapidly entering the Industry 4.0 era, which will fundamentally transform the business model of the industry, and unlock new ways of delivering value to the end user. The scope of this transformation is far beyond just technological innovation or industrial upgrading, requiring a fundamental re-thinking of the value capture and delivery system of the industry.

Key stakeholders including dealers, manufacturers and suppliers, and new mobility solutions companies must think beyond improving their hardware or production facilities, but also learn and digest the implications of Industry 4.0 as a new paradigm for a C2B connected enterprise.

Automotive companies must re-examine how to pursue an Industry 4.0 strategy in order to deliver a sustainable competitive advantage. The forces of technology change, along with the presence of disruptive Chinese companies with an innovative and experimental mindset make it even more imperative to move quickly. Automotive enterprises must act now to build the capability system, organizational structure and operating model of a business that is ready to compete in the Industry 4.0 era.


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Robert Zhang is a Senior Associate at Gao Feng Advisory Company based in Beijing. He previously worked at Siemens Limited China as a senior manager. He led a major channel management project for transforming the client’s distribution network, covering multiple product business units and regional sales organizations. In his management consulting career, he has helped a range of leading global Automotive, Industrial Products and Energy companies to deploy their market entry strategy, optimize their local production and distribution networks, and create their product strategy and investment models.


Emily Wang is a Senior Consultant at Gao Feng Advisory Company based in Shanghai. She has worked with clients from various industries including Automotive, Industrial Goods, Real Estate, Home Appliances, Consumer Goods and Agriculture. She is experienced with solving client’s most strategic problems, ranging from operating model design, organizational transformation, go-to-market strategy, and market opportunity assessment. Ms. Wang has worked with multinational organizations and start-up companies across China and the United States.

Jackie Wang is a Consultant at Gao Feng Advisory Company based in Shanghai. She has worked with clients from various industries including Automotive, Technology, Consumer Goods, Chemicals, Government and NGOs. She also has working experience in Finance, Human Resources and Education. She has worked and studied in China, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Bill Russo is Managing Director and the Automotive Practice leader at Gao Feng Advisory Company based in Shanghai. With 15 years as an Automotive executive, including over 11 years of experience in China and Asia, Mr. Russo has worked with numerous multi-national and local Chinese firms in the formulation and implementation of their global market and product strategies. He was previously Vice President of Chrysler North East Asia, where he managed the business operations for the Greater China and South Korea markets. Prior to this, Mr. Russo was Head of Product & Business Strategy for Chrysler. He also has nearly 12 years of experience in the electronics and IT industry, having worked at IBM Corporation as a manufacturing and systems engineer, and formerly served as Vice President of Corporate Development at Harman International.

About the authors

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For More Information:

Bill RussoManaging DirectorGao Feng Advisory [email protected]

Robert ZhangSenior AssociateGao Feng Advisory [email protected]

Emily WangSenior ConsultantGao Feng Advisory [email protected]

Jackie WangConsultantGao Feng Advisory [email protected]