the third wave - university of washington · the third wave Œ terrorism as warfare introduction...
TRANSCRIPT
Lect
ure
2:
The
Third
Wav
e
Intro
duct
ion
to H
omel
and
Secu
rity
Sept
. 7, 2
005
Step
hen
M. M
aure
rG
oldm
an S
choo
l of P
ublic
Pol
icy
Toni
ght �
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
rori
sm: 1
960s
-19
80s
The
Thi
rd W
ave
1. N
ew G
oals
-T
erro
rism
as W
arfa
reA
Sen
sibl
e G
oal?
Te
chno
logy
Issu
esH
uman
Fac
tors
& M
anag
emen
t
2. N
ew T
actic
s -T
erro
rism
as a
Bus
ines
s Mod
elEn
trepr
eneu
rs, O
utso
urci
ng &
Ven
ture
C
apita
l.
Ove
rvie
w
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1960
s �19
80s
Gro
wth
of I
nter
natio
nal T
erro
rism
�No
Alte
rnat
ive�
Failu
re o
f Con
vent
iona
l War
s Fa
ilure
of T
erro
rism
Insi
de Is
rael
Pres
s Bia
s in
Favo
r of �
Inte
rnat
iona
l� E
vent
s.
Inno
vatio
nsSt
ate
Spon
sors
hip
Prof
essi
onal
izat
ion
of T
erro
rism
Terr
oris
t Ent
repr
eneu
rs (C
arlo
s, A
bu N
idal
)
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m19
68 -1
990
His
tory
1968
:-P
FLP
terr
oris
ts h
ijack
El A
l flig
ht fr
om R
ome.
-PFL
P m
achi
ne g
uns E
l Al A
irlin
er in
Ath
ens,
killi
ng 1
.
1969
-Ter
roris
ts a
ttack
El A
l pla
ne a
t Zur
ich,
kill
ing
4.-P
FLP
hija
cks T
WA
flig
ht a
fter i
t lea
ves R
ome.
-Al F
atah
thro
ws h
and
gren
ades
at E
l Al o
ffic
e in
Bru
ssel
s.-H
and
gren
ade
atta
ck o
n El
Al o
ffic
e in
Ath
ens k
ills 1
.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
Hija
ckin
gM
ajor
Non
-Hija
ckin
gSm
alle
r Atta
cks
1970
:-U
nsuc
cess
ful a
ttem
pt to
hija
ck E
l Al p
lane
from
Mun
ich.
1 Is
rael
i ki
lled.
-PFL
P at
tack
s El A
l bus
at M
unic
h A
irpor
t, ki
lls 1
.-P
FLP
blow
s up
Swis
s Airl
iner
by
acci
dent
, kill
ing
47.
-Atta
ck o
n Is
rael
i Em
bass
y in
Par
agua
y ki
lls 2
.-P
PSF
hija
cks G
reek
pla
ne.
-PFL
P hi
jack
s TW
A, S
wis
sAir,
Pan
Am
, and
BO
AC
pla
nes c
arry
ing
400
pass
enge
rs to
Daw
son�
s Fie
ld in
Jord
an.
Atte
mpt
ed h
ijack
ing
of E
l A
l flig
ht fa
ils.
Pass
enge
rs re
leas
ed a
fter S
wiss
and
Brit
ish
gove
rnm
ents
gi
ve in
. -P
FLP
hija
cks B
OA
C p
lane
from
Bom
bay
to R
ome.
-Jor
dan
expe
ls PL
O.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1971
:-B
lack
Sep
tem
ber a
ssas
sina
tes J
orda
nian
Prim
e M
inist
er in
Cai
ro.
1972
:-B
elgi
an a
irlin
er is
hija
cked
to T
el A
viv.
Isr
aeli
com
man
dos s
torm
pl
ane,
free
ing
host
ages
. O
ne p
asse
nger
and
five
sold
iers
are
kill
ed.
-PFL
P an
d Ja
pane
se R
ed A
rmy
kill
27 c
ivili
ans a
t Lod
Airp
ort.
-Mun
ich
Oly
mpi
cs M
assa
cre.
Eig
ht B
lack
Sep
tem
ber t
erro
rists
take
11
Isra
eli a
thle
tes h
osta
ge.
Nin
e ho
stag
es a
nd fi
ve te
rror
ist a
re k
illed
.-L
ette
r bom
b to
Isra
eli e
mba
ssy
in L
ondo
n ki
lls 1
.-A
l Fat
ah g
roup
hija
cks L
ufth
ansa
flig
ht fr
om B
eiru
t to
Zagr
eb.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1973
:-~
12
Isra
eli �
Wra
th o
f God
� A
ssas
sina
tions
-Bla
ck S
epte
mbe
r ter
roris
ts m
urde
r US
amba
ssad
or to
Sud
an.
-Bla
ck S
epte
mbe
r ter
roris
ts m
urde
r Isr
aeli
busi
ness
man
in C
ypru
s.-T
erro
rists
atta
ck E
l Al o
ffic
e in
Rom
e, k
illin
g 1.
-Tw
o A
rabs
send
lette
r bom
bs to
Isra
elis
livi
ng in
Brit
ain
and
Hol
land
.-B
lack
Sep
tem
ber t
erro
rists
atta
ck p
asse
nger
term
inal
in A
then
s,ki
ll 3.
-Jap
anes
e A
irlin
es F
light
hija
cked
to B
engh
azi a
nd d
estro
yed.
-F
ive
terr
oris
ts a
ttack
Sau
di E
mba
ssy
in P
aris
.-T
wo
terr
oris
ts ta
ke th
ree
Jew
ish
imm
igra
nts h
osta
ge a
boar
d a
train
to
Vie
nna.
-Thr
ee te
rror
ists h
ijack
pla
ne fr
om N
ew D
elhi
to A
bu D
habi
.-5
terr
oris
ts at
tack
term
inal
and
des
troy
airli
ner a
t Rom
e ai
rpor
t kill
ing
30 in
clud
ing
4 se
nior
Mor
occa
n of
ficia
ls a
nd 1
4 A
mer
ican
oil
com
pany
em
ploy
ees.
Ter
roris
ts ta
ke fi
ve It
alia
ns h
osta
ge a
boar
d Lu
fthan
sa
airli
ner a
nd h
ijack
it to
Bei
rut,
Ath
ens,
and
ultim
atel
y K
uwai
t.1
host
age
is k
illed
. Te
rror
ists
are
allo
wed
to e
scap
e to
unk
now
n de
stin
atio
n. P
LO d
enie
s res
pons
ibili
ty.
-Ter
roris
t bom
b Pa
n A
m o
ffic
e at
Rom
e ai
rpor
t, ki
lling
32.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1974
:-P
LO m
akes
con
cilia
tory
stat
emen
t im
plyi
ng Is
rael
�s ri
ght t
o ex
ist.
PF
LP, D
FLP,
ALF
, PFL
P-G
C, P
PSF
form
�R
ejec
tion
Fron
t.� A
bu
Nid
al (w
ho d
oes n
ot jo
in th
e Fr
ont)
begi
ns a
ssas
sina
tion
cam
paig
n ag
ains
t PLO
off
icia
ls.
-PFL
P-G
C se
ize
Qira
yat S
hem
ona.
18
Isra
elis
kill
ed in
resc
ue a
ttem
pt.
-PFL
P te
rror
ists
seiz
e sc
hool
at M
a�a
lot.
27
Isra
elis
are
kill
ed in
resc
ue
atte
mpt
.-P
FLP
raid
s Sha
mir
Kib
butz
. Fo
ur te
rror
ists
and
seve
ral I
srae
lis a
re
kille
d.-F
atah
terr
orist
s atte
mpt
to la
nd in
Isra
el b
y bo
at.
All
are
kille
d, a
long
w
ith th
ree
Isra
elis
.-R
ejec
tion
Fron
t hija
cker
s hija
ck a
Brit
ish
Airl
iner
at D
ubai
. 1G
erm
an p
asse
nger
is k
illed
.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1975
:-P
FLP/
Car
los a
ttack
s Orly
airp
ort t
wic
e us
ing
rock
ets.
Polic
e fr
ustra
te
seco
nd a
ttack
, whi
ch e
nds w
ith C
arlo
s sei
zing
ten
host
ages
in b
athr
oom
. Te
rror
ists
are
allo
wed
to ta
ke A
ir Fr
ance
flig
ht to
Iraq
.-P
FLP-
SOG
/Car
los t
ake
OPE
C M
inis
ters
Hos
tage
. Sa
udi A
rabi
a an
d Ir
an p
ay $
20m
+ ra
nsom
.
1976
:-R
AF
and
PFLP
seiz
e A
ir Fr
ance
airl
iner
with
258
pas
seng
ers a
boar
d.
Isra
eli c
omm
ando
s sto
rm th
e pl
ane
at E
nteb
be.
1 so
ldie
r and
3
pass
enge
rs d
ie.
-PFL
P an
d JA
L te
rror
ists
atta
ck p
asse
nger
term
inal
in Is
tanb
ul, k
illin
g 4.
1977
-Ter
roris
ts h
ijack
Luf
than
sa a
ircra
ft. P
ilot i
s kill
ed. G
erm
an sp
ecia
l fo
rces
stor
m p
lane
in M
ogad
ishu
, res
cuin
g ho
stag
es, c
aptu
ring
3 te
rror
ists
and
kill
ing
one.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1978
:-A
l Fat
ah se
a bo
rne
raid
into
Isra
el k
ills 2
6 ci
vilia
ns.
-PFL
P op
en fi
re o
n El
Al p
asse
nger
s in
Paris
. 2
Fren
chm
en a
re k
illed
.-P
FLP
atta
cks E
l Al c
rew
bus
in L
ondo
n, k
illin
g 1.
1979
:-A
ttack
on
El A
l pas
seng
ers a
t Bru
ssel
s Airp
ort,
no o
ne k
illed
.
1980
:-E
l Al e
mpl
oyee
kill
ed in
Ista
nbul
.-A
ttack
on
syna
gogu
e in
Par
is ki
lls fo
ur.
1981
:-A
ttack
on
syna
gogu
e in
Vie
nna
kills
two.
1982
:-A
bu N
idal
terr
oris
ts c
ritic
ally
inju
re Is
rael
i Am
bass
ador
to U
K.
-Abu
Nid
al te
rror
ists
atta
ck sy
nago
gue
in B
russ
els.
-Abu
Nid
al te
rror
ists
atta
ck sy
nago
gue
in R
ome,
kill
ing
1.
1983
:-T
ruck
bom
b on
US
emba
ssy
in B
eiru
t kill
s 63.
-Sim
ulta
neou
s tru
ck b
ombs
kill
242
Am
eric
an a
nd 5
5 Fr
ench
troo
ps.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1985
:-A
bu N
idal
terr
oris
ts b
omb
Brit
ish
Airw
ays O
ffic
e in
Mad
rid, k
illin
g 1.
-Abu
Nid
al te
rror
ists
ass
assi
nate
Brit
ish c
ultu
ral a
ffai
rs o
ffic
er in
A
then
s.-A
bu N
idal
terr
oris
ts a
ssas
sina
te B
ritish
off
icia
l in
Bom
bay.
-Gre
nade
atta
ck o
n R
ome
Caf
é.-P
LO k
ills 3
Isra
eli t
ouris
ts in
Cyp
rus.
-El A
l Sta
ff a
t Hea
thro
w fi
nd 1
.5 k
g. S
emte
x bo
mb
in h
and
lugg
age.
Th
ree
Syria
n di
plom
ats a
re su
bseq
uent
ly a
rres
ted.
-TW
A fl
ight
from
Ath
ens t
o R
ome
is h
ijack
ed to
Bei
rut b
y H
ezba
llah
terr
oris
ts.
145
pass
enge
rs a
nd 8
cre
w a
re ta
ken
host
age.
1 A
mer
ican
sa
ilor i
s mur
dere
d. H
osta
ges a
re re
leas
ed a
fter I
srae
l fre
es 4
35 p
rison
ers.
-Fou
r PFL
P te
rror
ists
hija
ck A
chill
e La
uro
taki
ng 7
00 p
asse
nger
s and
cr
ew h
osta
ge.
One
US
pass
enge
r is m
urde
red.
Egy
ptia
n go
vern
men
t off
ers t
erro
rists
safe
hav
en o
ver U
S ob
ject
ions
.-A
bu N
idal
gro
up h
ijack
s Egy
ptA
ir fli
ght f
rom
Ath
ens t
o M
alta
. Eg
yptia
ns ta
ke b
ack
the
plan
e. 5
7 ho
stag
es a
nd 3
terr
oris
ts a
reki
lled.
-Abu
Nid
al te
rror
ists
atta
ck E
l Al a
nd T
WA
cou
nter
s in
Rom
e an
d V
ienn
a. 1
6 pa
ssen
gers
and
4 te
rror
ists
are
kill
ed. T
hree
terr
oris
ts
surr
ende
r.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
1986
:-P
ales
tinia
n sp
linte
r gro
up b
ombs
TW
A fl
ight
nea
r Ath
ens,
killi
ng 4
U
S ci
tizen
s.-B
erlin
Dis
coth
eque
Bom
bing
. Tw
o U
S so
ldie
rs a
re k
illed
. U
S bo
mbs
Li
byan
targ
ets i
n re
talia
tion.
-Abu
Nid
al a
ttem
pts h
ijack
ing
of P
an A
m fl
ight
in K
arac
hi, k
illin
g 22
. -A
bu N
idal
terr
oris
ts a
ttack
a sy
nago
gue
in Is
tanb
ul, k
illin
g 22
.
1988
:-L
ocke
rbie
Bom
bing
. 25
9 pa
ssen
gers
kill
ed.In
tern
atio
nal T
erro
rism
:19
68 -
1990
Goa
lsSu
ppor
ting
Dip
lom
acy
Succ
ess o
r Mis
lead
ing
Exam
ple?
Obt
aini
ng C
once
ssio
ns &
�D
e-R
ailin
g th
e Pe
ace
Proc
ess�
The
Com
mitm
ent P
robl
em
Res
pons
es Targ
eted
Ass
assi
natio
ns &
Pre
empt
ive
Atta
cks
Arm
ed C
onfr
onta
tions
Cre
atio
n of
Spe
cial
ized
Ant
iterr
oris
t Uni
ts
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
Stat
e Sp
onso
rs (P
t. 2)
. PF
LP, D
PFLP
, Sai
qa -
$20-
30m
/yea
r, 50
�50
0 m
embe
rs.
Fata
h -$
150-
200m
/yea
r, 70
00 m
embe
rs.
Abu
Nid
al -
Stat
e Sp
onso
rshi
p +
Crim
e +
Legi
timat
e B
usin
esse
s.
Liby
aM
unic
h &
Var
ious
Hija
ckin
gsLi
byan
Arm
s Shi
pmen
tsFo
ur la
rge
ship
men
ts to
IRA
(198
5 �
87)
~ 17
5 to
ns o
f wea
pons
and
Sem
tex
expl
osiv
es.
Als
o: S
yria
, Ira
q, Ir
an, S
udan
.
Stat
e Sp
onso
rshi
p
Stat
e Sp
onso
rshi
p
Impa
ct o
n Te
rror
ists
�Goa
ls.
Prof
essi
onal
izat
ion
Mor
e Te
rror
ism
?C
aree
rism
& N
on-I
deol
ogic
al G
oals
Mor
e C
onst
rain
ts
Stat
e Sp
onso
rshi
p
Impa
ct o
n Sp
onso
rs� G
oals
Giv
es S
mal
l Gov
ernm
ents
A F
orei
gn P
olic
y C
apab
ility
Incr
ease
s Nui
sanc
e V
alue
But
Onl
y if
Spon
sor C
an R
enou
nce.
Car
los:
Eas
t Ger
man
y, S
yria
, Sud
an
Dra
wba
cks f
or S
pons
ors
Diff
icul
t to
Term
inat
e Sp
onso
rshi
pPo
ssib
ility
of M
isca
lcul
atio
n (E
l Dor
ado
Can
yon)
Smal
l vs.
Med
ium
-Siz
ed S
tate
sIn
cons
iste
nt W
ith W
MD
Com
plic
ates
Con
vent
iona
l For
eign
Pol
icy,
Lea
ding
to
Isol
atio
n.
Inte
rnat
iona
lizat
ion
of T
erro
rism
Terr
oris
t Sum
mits
Cub
a 19
66; L
eban
on 1
972;
Yug
osla
via
1978
; Li
sbon
198
1
Trai
ning
Cam
ps
Join
t Ope
ratio
nsLo
d A
irpor
t Mas
sacr
eM
ogad
ishu
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1968
-19
90
Inte
rnat
iona
lizat
ion
of T
erro
r,ct
d. �
Mak
ing
Terr
oris
m S
cale
able
?C
ompa
rativ
e A
dvan
tage
Com
petit
ion
Bet
wee
n G
roup
s
Why
Did
the
Hija
ckin
gs S
top?
Dec
linin
g Pu
blic
ity V
alue
Polit
ical
Nee
dsC
ount
erte
rror
ism
Uni
ts
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m:
1960
s -19
80
Mun
ich
and
Afte
rwar
d
1972
: 22
SA
S (U
K),
Gen
darm
erie
Roy
ale
(Bel
gium
)19
73:
Gre
nzsh
utzg
rupp
e-9
(Wes
t Ger
man
y),
Gen
darm
erie
Kom
man
do (A
ustri
a).
1974
: G
enda
rmer
ie d
� int
erve
ntio
n G
enar
mei
er N
atio
nale
(Fra
nce)
1975
:B
erad
skap
tropp
en (N
orw
ay).
1977
:D
elta
For
ce (U
SA)
1978
:G
rupo
Esp
ecai
l de
Ope
raci
ones
(Spa
in),
Nuc
leo
Ope
rativ
o C
entra
le d
i Sic
urez
za (I
taly
)19
79:
Gru
po d
e O
pera
coes
Esp
ecia
ls (P
ortu
gal)
Why
Did
the
Hija
ckin
gsSt
op?
Pre-
Mun
ich
Out
com
es
Isra
eli:
No-
nego
tiatio
n po
licy,
hija
ckin
gs b
ecom
e fe
wer
bu
t mor
e vi
olen
t.
Euro
pean
: 2 o
f 161
Pal
estin
ians
arr
este
d fo
r act
s of t
erro
r in
third
cou
ntrie
s bet
wee
n 19
68 a
nd 1
973
wer
e ac
tual
ly p
unis
hed.
Hija
ckin
gs a
re c
omm
on b
ut la
rgel
y sy
mbo
lic.
Cf.
Fren
ch R
espo
nses
to E
TA, B
elgi
an R
espo
nses
to
IRA
.
Why
Did
the
Hija
ckin
gsSt
op?
Post
-Mun
ich
Out
com
esC
apab
ility
is N
ot E
noug
h!D
eter
renc
e N
eeds
a C
omm
itmen
t Stra
tegy
.Se
ptem
ber 1
1 as
Seq
uel
Shar
ing
the
Bur
den
Achi
lle L
auro
El D
orad
o C
anyo
n
Why
Did
the
Hija
ckin
gsSt
op?
Con
clus
ions
Goa
ls:
Rev
olut
ion
�D
estro
ying
and
Rep
laci
ng th
e St
ate
Des
troyi
ng th
e Ec
onom
yPu
blic
ityO
btai
ning
Con
cess
ions
Forc
ing
With
draw
alPr
ovok
ing
a C
rack
dow
nFo
reig
n In
terv
entio
nC
atal
yzin
g D
iplo
mac
ySu
ppor
ting
Maj
or M
ilita
ry O
pera
tions
Publ
icity
C
redi
bilit
yB
lock
ing
Polit
ical
Sol
utio
nsM
oney
Hol
ding
Ter
ritor
yEc
onom
ic G
oals
Con
clus
ions
Con
clus
ions
Cou
nter
mea
sure
s:
Libe
raliz
atio
nPu
blic
Opi
nion
Rew
ards
Info
rmer
sC
enso
rshi
pM
ass A
rres
tsM
ass R
epris
als
Inte
rnal
Exi
leSu
rvei
llanc
eC
rimin
aliz
ing
Adv
ocac
yTa
rget
ed A
ssas
sina
tions
& P
reem
ptiv
e A
ttack
sM
ilita
ry T
ribun
als
Tortu
reA
rmed
Con
fron
tatio
n
Terr
oris
m is
a M
argi
nal S
trate
gy.
Onc
e St
arte
d, T
erro
rism
Ten
ds to
Be
Pers
iste
nt.
Stat
e Po
wer
is O
verw
helm
ing,
Eve
n M
odes
t Mea
sure
s Are
Eff
ectiv
e.
Sanc
tuar
ies,
Spon
sors
, and
Crim
e M
ake
Terr
oris
m D
ram
atic
ally
M
ore
Pers
iste
nt.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Ter
roris
m W
eake
ns T
radi
tiona
l Con
stra
ints
Aga
inst
V
iole
nce.
Con
clus
ions
The
Third
Wav
e �
Terr
oris
m a
s War
fare
Intro
duct
ion
The
Seco
nd W
ave
Con
tem
plat
es M
ass V
iole
nce
Liby
an A
rab
Airl
ines
Flig
ht 1
14 (F
ebru
ary
1973
)O
pera
tion
Mt.
Car
mel
(Jul
y 21
, 197
3)
Expl
anat
ions
Cla
ssic
al T
erro
rism
did
not
nee
d m
ass v
iole
nce.
Mas
s vio
lenc
e w
as c
onst
rain
ed b
y id
eolo
gy,
sym
path
izer
s, pu
blic
opi
nion
, and
stat
e sp
onso
rs.
The
Third
Wav
e is
Diff
eren
t�
Is W
arfa
re a
Rea
sona
ble
Stra
tegy
?
Thin
king
Abo
ut W
arfa
re.
No
Goo
d Th
eory
Wha
t Are
the
Impo
rtant
Var
iabl
es?
The
Lens
of C
asua
lties
War
fare
Type
s of W
arfa
re
1. W
arfa
re B
etw
een
Arm
ies
2. T
otal
War
fare
3. L
imite
d W
ars
4. D
esta
biliz
atio
n5.
Dec
apita
tion
Wha
t Was
Bin
Ladi
nTr
ying
to D
o?D
id B
inLa
din
Wan
t a L
imite
d W
ar?
Did
Bin
Ladi
nG
et a
Tot
al W
ar?
War
fare
1. W
arfa
re B
etw
een
Arm
ies
Pre-
Mod
ern
War
sA
n Ec
onom
ic Im
poss
ibili
ty
War
fare
2.To
tal W
arfa
re
Fren
ch R
evol
utio
n to
Wor
ld W
ar II
Mas
s Arm
ies
Stro
ng D
efen
se A
dvan
tage
Mob
iliza
tion
& A
ttriti
on
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: 19th
Cen
tury
Nap
oleo
nic
War
s
Tot
als:
1.4
mill
ion
Fren
ch so
ldie
rs (5
% o
f pop
ulat
ion)
Rat
es:
25 y
ear c
ampa
ign
400,
000
Alli
ed S
oldi
ers d
ied
in R
ussi
a.~
1 m
illio
n on
bot
h si
des (
incl
udin
g ci
vilia
ns)
Shoc
ks:
10,0
00 F
renc
h so
ldie
rs k
illed
at W
ater
loo
5,50
0 A
llied
sold
iers
kill
ed a
t Wat
erlo
oR
esul
ts:
Res
ilien
ce o
f the
Mod
ern
Stat
e.
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: 19th
Cen
tury
Am
eric
an C
ivil
War
Tot
als:
360,
000
Uni
on S
oldi
ers (
1.4%
)20
0,00
0 C
onfe
dera
te S
oldi
ers (
2.5%
)R
ates
:A
4 Y
ear C
ampa
ign
Shoc
ks:
Bat
tle o
f Ant
iete
m: (
7,00
0 U
nion
, 3,
000
Con
fede
rate
KIA
)R
esul
ts:
Res
ilien
ce o
f the
Mod
ern
Stat
e
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: Wor
ld W
ar I
Tot
als:
1.7
mill
ion
Fren
ch so
ldie
rs (4
.4%
)2
mill
ion
Ger
man
sold
iers
& c
ivili
ans (
3.1%
)1
mill
ion
Brit
ish
& E
mpi
re so
ldie
rs (2
.4%
)1.
5 m
illio
n A
ustri
an so
ldie
rs (2
.9%
)
Rat
es:
434,
000
Ger
man
sold
iers
wer
e ki
lled
in 1
915.
Shoc
ks:
Firs
t Day
of t
he S
omm
e: 1
9,24
0 B
ritis
h so
ldie
rs k
illed
.
Res
ults
:G
erm
any,
Aus
tria-
Hun
gary
, Rus
sia,
Fra
nce.
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: Wor
ld W
ar II
Tot
als:
US
405,
000
sold
iers
(0.4
%)
USS
R7
mill
ion
sold
iers
+ 2
3 m
illio
n ci
vilia
ns
(4.2
% +
13.
8% =
18%
!)
Brit
ain
300,
000
(0.6
%)
Ger
man
y3.
5 m
illio
n so
ldie
rs k
illed
(5%
)1
mill
ion
civi
lians
kill
ed (1
%)
305,
000+
civ
ilian
s kill
ed b
y bo
mbi
ng (0
.4%
)
Japa
n2
mill
ion
all c
ause
s (2.
7% o
f pop
ulat
ion)
900,
000
kille
d in
stra
tegi
c bo
mbi
ng (1
.2%
)
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: Wor
ld W
ar II
Rat
es:
US
400
sold
iers
/day
(~ 1
WTC
atta
ck/w
eek!
)Lo
ndon
Blit
z95
civ
ilian
s/da
y
Shoc
ks:
Ham
burg
(194
3):
60-1
00,0
00 c
ivili
ans k
illed
.O
kina
wa
(194
5):
18,9
00 A
mer
ican
sold
iers
kill
ed.
Hiro
shim
a (1
945)
80 -
100,
000
civi
lians
kill
ed.
Ope
ratio
n O
lym
pic
(194
6 -p
roje
cted
)10
0,00
0 A
mer
ican
sold
iers
kill
ed
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: W
orld
War
II
Res
ults
:US,
Ger
man
y, It
aly
Res
ilien
ce o
f the
Nat
ion
Stat
e
Res
ults
:USS
RLa
ck o
f Alte
rnat
ives
Cav
eats
:H
as T
he W
orld
Cha
nged
?N
ot S
o Lo
ng A
go�
Elec
troni
c M
edia
The
Som
me
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: W
orld
War
II
Res
ults
:Jap
an
Hig
h te
chno
logy
, sta
te-s
pons
ored
suic
ide.
Oki
naw
a: 3
,000
sorti
es, 3
00-p
lane
wav
es, 3
6 sh
ips s
unk,
368
ship
s dam
aged
, 490
0 U
S sa
ilors
de
ad, 4
,824
wou
nded
.
Why
the
Empe
ror S
urre
nder
ed.
War
fare
3. L
imite
d W
ars
Boe
r War
21,0
00 B
ritis
h so
ldie
rs k
illed
(0.0
5%)
Vie
tnam
: Tota
l: 58
,000
US
sold
iers
kill
ed(0
.03%
)R
ate:
16,8
69 U
S so
ldie
rs k
illed
in 1
968.
Shoc
k:54
3 U
S so
ldie
rs k
illed
(T
et O
ffen
sive
)
Stra
tegy
Tot
al vs.
Lim
ited
War
�If G
reat
Brit
ain
goes
dow
n, th
e A
xis p
ower
s will
con
trol t
he
cont
inen
ts o
f Eur
ope,
Asi
a, A
fric
a, A
ustra
lasi
a an
d th
e hi
gh se
as
�an
d th
ey w
ill b
e in
a p
ositi
on to
brin
g en
orm
ous m
ilita
ry a
nd
nava
l res
ourc
es a
gain
st th
is h
emis
pher
e. I
t is n
o ex
agge
ratio
n to
sa
y th
at a
ll of
us i
n th
e A
mer
icas
wou
ld b
e liv
ing
at th
e po
int o
f a
gun.
�
Fran
klin
D. R
oose
velt
Dec
embe
r 12,
194
0
War
fare
Tota
l War
fare
: W
orld
War
II
Tot
al vs.
Lim
ited
War
Japa
n�s A
ttriti
on S
trate
gyTh
e C
omm
itmen
t Pro
blem
Cha
lleng
ing
the
Stat
us Q
uo: N
apol
eon
& H
itler
War
fare
4. D
esta
biliz
atio
n
Fund
ing
Cha
lleng
ers,
Dis
info
rmat
ion
Gua
tem
ala
(195
4)C
uba
& E
aste
rn E
urop
eW
este
rn D
emoc
raci
es
Stra
tegy
5. D
ecap
itatio
n
Col
d W
ar F
ears
Kat
yn F
ores
t1
adm
iral,
2 ge
nera
ls, 2
4 co
lone
ls,
79 li
eute
nant
col
onel
s, 25
8 m
ajor
s, 65
4 ca
ptai
ns, 1
7 na
val c
apta
ins,
3,42
0 N
CO
s, 7
chap
lain
s, 3
land
owne
rs, 1
prin
ce, 4
3 of
ficia
ls, 8
5 pr
ivat
es, a
nd 1
31 re
fuge
es, 2
0 un
iver
sity
pro
fess
ors,
300
phys
icia
ns, s
ever
al
hund
red
law
yers
, eng
inee
rs, a
nd te
ache
rs; a
nd
mor
e th
an 1
00 w
riter
s and
jour
nalis
ts; 2
00
pilo
ts.
~ 5,
000
Mur
ders
, nea
rly o
ne-h
alf t
he P
olis
h of
ficer
co
rps.
Stra
tegy
Impl
icat
ions
:
Min
imum
Req
uire
d C
asua
lties
:
Lim
ited
War
: 10
s of T
hous
ands
of K
illed
+
Com
mitm
ent S
trate
gy
Al Q
aeda
�s A
mbi
tions
Tota
l War
: 10
0s o
f Tho
usan
ds o
f Kill
ed
Bin
Lad
in�s
Estim
ateW
arfa
re
Tech
nolo
gy Is
sues
Security
Con
veni
ence
Con
vent
iona
l Te
rror
ism
Can
dida
te T
echn
olog
ies
-Rep
eate
d A
ttack
s-W
MD
-Com
plex
ity?
Rep
eate
d A
ttack
sR
epea
ted
Atta
cks
Rep
etiti
on R
ates
x 1
00C
ount
erm
easu
res
Larg
e Pu
blic
Spa
ces
Con
vent
iona
l Te
rror
ism
WM
D? -W
MD
(Pt.
1): C
hem
ical
, Bio
logi
cal &
Rad
iolo
gica
l W
eapo
ns
-WM
D (P
t. 2)
: Nuc
lear
Wea
pons
(66,
000
�10
0,00
0 de
ad)
WM
D
True
WM
D is
Har
d!
The
Idea
of W
MD
:H
einz
en, F
enia
ns, A
narc
hist
s, So
cial
Rev
olut
iona
ries
Ric
hard
Fey
nman
�s D
epre
ssio
n
Tech
nolo
gy a
nd In
dust
rial R
esou
rces
Nuc
lear
Wea
pons
Rad
iolo
gica
l Wea
pons
Che
mic
al W
arfa
reB
iolo
gica
l Wea
pons
Diff
icul
t, B
ut N
ot Im
poss
ible
.
Com
plex
ityV
ulne
rabi
lity
in C
ompl
ex S
ocie
ties
The
Pow
er L
ines
Arg
umen
t
Som
e H
isto
ryN
orm
an A
ngel
l, Th
e G
reat
Illu
sion
(191
1)C
hurc
hill
& T
he A
dmira
ltySa
bota
ge a
t Bla
ck T
omU
S St
rate
gic
Bom
bing
(Ger
man
y, V
ietn
am)
Naz
i Sab
oteu
rsTe
rror
ists
in th
e 19
60s
PLO
, IR
A, N
ew W
orld
Lib
erat
ion
Fron
t, EL
N
(Col
ombi
a), e
tc.
Rat
iona
l Age
nt M
odel
s
Sear
chin
g fo
r the
Mag
ic T
ree
Hum
an F
acto
rs &
Man
agem
ent
Security
Con
veni
ence
Wha
t�s S
o H
ard
Abo
ut T
erro
rism
?(a
nd w
hy d
oes i
t tak
e so
long
�)
Hum
an F
acto
rs
& M
anag
emen
t
Hum
an F
acto
rs
& M
anag
emen
t
Ove
rvie
w
Prob
(Suc
cess
) = P
rob
(Ste
p 1)
x P
rob
(Ste
p 2)
x
Prob
(Ste
p 3)
�.
Com
mon
Obs
tacl
esM
anag
emen
t Tec
hniq
ues
Com
plex
Ope
ratio
ns
Firs
t Ans
wer
: Te
rror
ism
Isn�
t Har
d at
All
�
Eric
Meu
nta
(191
5)
Car
los (
1970
s)U
nabo
mbe
r (19
90s)
Not
Sca
leab
le!
Supe
rterr
oris
ts a
re R
are!
Japa
nese
Uni
ted
Red
Arm
y (1
972)
.Ja
mal
Ahm
ed a
l Fad
l & L
�Hou
ssai
ne K
herc
htou
(199
0s)
IRA
(197
0s �
Pres
ent)
Obs
tacl
es:
Peop
le
Impl
icat
ions
for D
efen
sePr
otec
ting
Info
rman
tsR
ewar
ds
Obs
tacl
es:
Peop
le
Seco
nd A
nsw
er:
Expl
oitin
g Te
chno
logy
Peop
les W
ill (1
880s
)B
ombm
aker
s Rok
otilo
v an
d D
embo
v di
e in
sepa
rate
acc
iden
ts.
Feni
ans (
1884
)Th
ree
Feni
ans d
ie tr
ying
to b
omb
Lond
on B
ridge
Ana
rchi
sts (
1893
)V
ailla
nt b
low
s him
self
up a
ttem
ptin
g to
bom
b C
ham
ber o
f Dep
utie
s
Soci
al R
evol
utio
narie
s (19
05)
Bom
bmak
er S
chw
eitz
er d
ies i
n ac
cide
nt.
Obs
tacl
es:
Tech
nolo
gy
PFLP
-SO
G (1
974)
Gre
nade
acc
iden
t dur
ing
hija
ckin
g.
IRA
(197
4, 1
976,
199
1, 1
996)
Four
pre
mat
ure
expl
osio
ns; t
wo
bom
bers
are
kill
ed.
Red
Arm
y Fa
ctio
n (1
976)
Te
rror
ists
hol
ding
Sto
ckho
lm e
mba
ssy
deto
nate
s exp
losi
ves p
rem
atur
ely;
ex
plos
ion
caus
es se
cond
acc
iden
t in
volv
ing
gren
ade.
IRA
(197
4, 1
992,
199
6)
Bom
bs a
re p
lant
ed b
ut fa
il to
de
tona
te.
Iran
ian
Inte
llige
nce
(198
9)Te
rror
ist k
ills s
elf w
hile
ass
embl
ing
bom
b to
kill
Sal
man
Rus
hdie
.
Obs
tacl
es:
Tech
nolo
gy
Al Q
aeda
(199
5)B
omb
fact
ory
fire
lead
s to
colla
pse
of
plot
aga
inst
Am
eric
an a
irlin
ers.
Al Q
aeda
(199
9)A
ttack
on
The
Sulli
vans
fails
whe
n ex
plos
ive-
lade
n bo
at si
nks i
n ha
rbor
.
Isla
mic
Jiha
d (1
990s
)M
ultip
le su
icid
e ve
sts f
ail t
o ex
plod
e.
Al Q
aeda
(200
5)Se
cond
-wav
e at
tack
fails
in L
ondo
n.
Obs
tacl
es:
Tech
nolo
gy
Impl
icat
ions
for D
efen
seEm
barg
os
Air-
to-A
ir M
issi
les
Encr
yptio
n
Obs
tacl
es:
Tech
nolo
gy
Obs
tacl
es:
Trad
ecra
ftTh
ird A
nsw
er:
Trad
ecra
ft
1974
IRA
: Bom
ber p
anic
s and
runs
aw
ay a
fter
spot
ting
secu
rity
at R
itz H
otel
.
1975
IRA
: Lon
don
polic
e sp
ot a
nd c
hase
su
spic
ious
man
. Res
ultin
g m
anhu
nt
unco
vers
wea
pons
, cas
h, a
nd n
ame
of a
ce
ll m
embe
r.
JRA
: Tw
o te
rror
ists
arr
este
d in
Sto
ckho
lm w
hile
ph
otog
raph
ing
and
carr
ying
out
surv
eilla
nce
on
emba
ssie
s.
1978
IRA
: Civ
ilian
s rep
ort e
xplo
sive
s cac
he; 3
terr
oris
ts ar
e ar
rest
ed w
hen
they
arr
ive
to in
spec
t it.
1982
RA
F: C
ivili
ans f
ind
and
repo
rt w
eapo
ns c
ache
.
1992
IRA
: Pol
icem
an sh
ot d
urin
g ro
utin
e tra
ffic
st
op.
1993
IRA
: Pol
icem
an sh
ot a
fter s
topp
ing
susp
icio
us
van.
1998
IRA
: Iris
h po
lice
spot
two
car b
ombs
bef
ore
they
ca
n be
driv
en n
orth
.
1999
Al Q
aeda
. B
orde
r sto
p fo
ils M
illen
nium
Bom
b pl
ot.
Obs
tacl
es:
Trad
ecra
ft
Impl
icat
ions
for D
efen
seC
APP
S an
d Pr
ofili
ngPo
lice
Pres
ence
& R
oust
ing
Susp
ects
�Dis
rupt
ing
Atta
cks�
Airp
ort S
cree
ning
Cus
tom
sV
isas
Vid
eo S
urve
illan
ceN
atio
nal I
dent
ity C
ards
Obs
tacl
es:
Trad
ecra
ft
Obs
tacl
es:
Com
bat
Four
th A
nsw
er:
Com
bat
Com
bat i
s Har
d
Ente
bbe,
Mog
adis
hu, e
tc.
Kill
ing
is H
ard
SAC
, SA
S, W
orld
War
II In
fant
ryN
azi S
abot
eurs
Suic
ide
is H
ard
Al Q
aeda
Req
uire
d Su
cces
s Rat
eW
hy N
ot U
se F
light
Sim
s?Pr
otec
ting
Goo
d Id
eas
Cas
ualti
es, F
utili
ty, R
idic
ule
Req
uire
d Su
cces
s R
ate
Man
agem
ent
Tech
niqu
es:
Prep
arat
ion
Firs
t Ans
wer
: Pre
para
tion
Staf
f Wor
k &
Inte
llige
nce
Sele
ctiv
ity
Man
agem
ent
Tech
niqu
es:
Trai
ning
Seco
nd A
nsw
er: T
rain
ing
Hum
an M
ater
ial
Rec
ruitm
ent,
Trai
ning
& D
isci
plin
eTr
aini
ng P
eopl
e to
Kill
Trai
ning
Peo
ple
to D
ie
Trai
ning
Peo
ple
to K
ill
Lyin
g &
Dru
gsFi
ring
Squa
dsSi
mul
atio
n &
Tra
inin
gM
adne
ss in
Sm
all G
roup
sC
ults
, Sto
ckho
lm E
ffec
t, M
ilita
ry D
isci
plin
e
Ideo
logy
& D
ogm
a
Kar
l Hei
nzen
(184
9): T
erro
rists
can
hav
eno
room
fo
r lov
e, fr
iend
ship
, gra
titud
e, o
r hon
or �
only
the
revo
lutio
nary
cau
se.
Man
agem
ent
Tech
niqu
es:
Trai
ning
W.B
. Yea
ts
�Hea
rts w
ith o
ne p
urpo
se a
lone
/Thr
ough
sum
mer
and
win
ter,
seem
/Enc
hant
ed to
a st
one/
To tr
oubl
e th
e liv
ing
stre
am.�
�And
wha
t if e
xces
s of l
ove/
Bew
ilder
ed th
em ti
ll th
ey d
ied?
�
-Eas
ter 1
916
�I k
now
not
wha
t the
you
nger
dre
ams -
/Som
e va
gue
Uto
pia
-and
sh
e se
ems,/
Whe
n w
ither
ed o
ld a
nd sk
elet
on-g
aunt
,/ A
n im
age
of
such
pol
itics
. �
-In
Mem
ory
Of E
va
Gor
e-Bo
oth
And
Con
Mar
kiew
icz
Dar
k Fo
rces
(Aga
in)
Trai
ning
Peo
ple
to D
ie
Suic
ide
Wea
pons
The
Wor
ld W
ars
Rel
igio
n &
Nat
iona
lism
Com
mitm
ent
Wha
t We
Kno
w A
bout
Sui
cide
The
Wer
ther
Eff
ect �
The
Pow
er o
f Exa
mpl
esFa
rew
ell L
ette
rs a
nd O
ther
Com
mitm
ent S
trate
gies
Mad
ness
of S
mal
l Gro
ups
Sacr
ifice
& A
tone
men
t?
Man
agem
ent
Tech
niqu
es:
Trai
ning
Man
agem
ent
Tech
niqu
es:
Supe
rvis
ion
Third
Ans
wer
: Sup
ervi
sion
Why
Man
ager
s?A
cces
s to
�Big
Pic
ture
� St
rate
gyR
epre
sent
ing
the
Org
aniz
atio
nPs
ycho
logi
cal N
eeds
Man
agem
ent v
s. Se
curit
yIn
visi
bilit
y vs
.Cap
abili
tyC
ells
& A
SUs
Com
plex
A
ttack
sC
ompl
exity
and
Ris
k
Suic
ide
Bom
bers
~ 25
% fa
ilure
rate
.Is
lam
ic Ji
had
vs. H
amas
The
Wal
l
Bom
bing
sIR
A A
SUs
Ass
assi
natio
nsA
ttack
s on
Hitl
erIr
ania
n A
ssas
sina
tion
Squa
ds~
50 �
70%
failu
re ra
te?
Truc
k B
ombi
ngs
Al Q
aeda
Atta
ck o
n Th
e Su
lliva
ns
Kid
napp
ings
Red
Brig
ades
Hija
ckin
gs
Com
plex
Ope
ratio
ns
Naz
i Sab
oteu
rs9/
11
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
The
Naz
i Sab
oteu
rsEl
even
Man
Tea
mSt
abili
ty, L
angu
age,
Tec
hnic
al S
kills
Sym
path
izer
s
Trai
ning
and
Equ
ipm
ent
Rai
dW
illin
gnes
s to
Kill
Secu
rity M
oney
, Fam
ily &
Frie
nds,
Girl
s, Li
quor
, Fea
r.
Res
ults
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Al Q
aeda
Mid
-199
6:K
SM p
itche
s plo
ts to
Bin
Ladi
n. I
deas
incl
ude
ca
r bom
bing
s, po
litic
al a
ssas
sina
tion,
hija
ckin
gs,
rese
rvoi
r poi
soni
ng, a
nd su
icid
e hi
jack
ing
of
airli
ners
.
1998
:B
inLa
din
appr
oves
Sep
t. 11
Plo
t. K
SM
begi
ns w
ork
but c
ontin
ues t
o de
velo
p ot
her i
deas
.A
l Qae
da p
erfo
rms s
ucce
ssfu
l tria
l run
at N
Y
airp
ort.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Afg
han
�Pilo
ts�
Ham
burg
�Pi
lots
�O
ther
�Pi
lots
��M
uscl
e� H
ijack
ers
Sprin
g, 1
999:
Bin
Ladi
nm
eets
with
KSM
repe
ated
ly, s
calin
g ba
ck o
rigin
al p
ropo
sal.
Bin
Ladi
nse
lect
s Kha
lid
al M
ihda
r, N
awaf
al H
azm
i, Ta
wfiq
bin
Atta
sh
(�K
halla
d�),
and
Abu
Bar
a al
Yem
eni.
Mid
-199
9:K
SM re
sear
ches
Wes
tern
avi
atio
n m
agaz
ines
, fli
ght s
ched
ules
, and
flyi
ng sc
hool
s. H
e gi
ves
Haz
mi,
Abu
Bar
a,an
d K
halla
dba
sic
train
ing
in
Engl
ish
phra
ses,
read
ing
phon
e bo
oks,
rent
ing
apar
tmen
ts, e
tc.
1999
:Y
emen
i citi
zens
Kha
llad
and
Abu
Bar
raca
nnot
ob
tain
vis
as a
nd a
re u
nabl
e to
lear
n En
glis
h. B
in
Lade
n in
sist
s tha
t the
y pl
ay a
role
. K
SM in
vent
s se
cond
airl
ine
bom
bing
plo
t tha
t req
uire
s nei
ther
pi
lot t
rain
ing
nor E
nglis
h.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Mid
-199
9Y
emen
i pol
ice
arre
st K
halla
dby
mis
take
as p
art o
f th
e C
ole
inve
stig
atio
n. K
halla
d�s f
athe
r get
s him
re
leas
ed.
Nov
. 199
9M
oham
med
Atta
, Ram
zi B
inal
shib
h, M
arw
an e
l Sh
ehhi
, and
Zia
d Ja
rrah
trav
el to
Afg
hani
stan
to
volu
ntee
r for
Jiha
d.
Janu
ary
2000
Haz
mia
nd M
ihda
rent
er th
e U
S. K
SM re
laxe
s se
curit
y so
that
they
can
rece
ive
supp
ort f
rom
Sa
n D
iego
Mos
que.
Sprin
g 20
00H
ani H
anjo
urar
rives
in A
fgha
nista
n tra
inin
g ca
mp
and
is re
crui
ted
to th
e pl
ot.
Atta
appl
ies f
or
USD
A lo
an.
Mar
ch 2
000
Mih
dars
tarts
�ra
ntin
g an
d ra
ving
� ov
er a
secu
rity
depo
sit.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
May
200
0:H
azm
iand
Mih
darg
ive
up tr
ying
to le
arn
Engl
ish.
Fl
ight
scho
ol b
ecom
es im
poss
ible
.
June
200
0:M
ihda
rgoe
s AW
OL
and
tells
his
cou
sin
that
Bin
La
den
is p
lann
ing
five
atta
cks i
n th
e U
S. B
in
Lade
n pr
even
ts K
SM fr
om fi
ring
him
.
June
200
0H
azm
iis b
ored
in M
ihda
r�s a
bsen
ce a
nd a
sks
KSM
for p
erm
issi
on to
sear
ch fo
r a w
ife o
n th
e In
tern
et.
He
tells
a c
owor
ker t
hat t
hat h
e w
ill
�bec
ome
fam
ous.�
May
200
0 A
tta, e
l She
hhia
nd Ja
rrah
com
plet
e fli
ght t
rain
ing.
�
Janu
ary
2001
A
tta is
a ru
de a
nd a
busi
ve st
uden
t. F
ourth
H
ambu
rg p
lotte
r fai
ls to
obt
ain
entry
vis
a.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Oct
ober
200
0K
SM se
ndsM
ouss
aoui
to M
alay
sia
for f
light
tra
inin
g, b
utM
ouss
aoui
deci
des t
o w
ork
on a
di
ffer
ent p
lot i
nste
ad.
KSM
reca
lls M
ouss
aoui
, an
d se
nds h
im to
the
US
for f
light
trai
ning
. In
terv
iew
ed b
y FB
I on
Aug
ust 1
5 20
01an
d ar
rest
ed o
n im
mig
ratio
n ch
arge
s the
follo
win
g da
y.
2000
-200
1:B
inLa
din
choo
ses �
mus
cle
hija
cker
s.� N
ine
othe
r hi
jack
ers a
re se
lect
ed w
ho d
o no
t par
ticip
ate
beca
use
they
fail
to o
btai
n tra
vel d
ocum
ents
, bac
k ou
t, or
are
rem
oved
by
the
lead
ersh
ip.
Pilo
t hi
jack
ers m
eet m
uscl
e hi
jack
ers a
nd h
elp
them
re
nt a
partm
ents
, etc
.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Sum
mer
200
1A
tta, e
l She
hhi,
al H
amzi
, Jar
rah,
and
H
anjo
urm
ake
at le
ast s
ix tr
ips t
o La
s Veg
as.
Sept
. 11,
200
1:H
anjo
ur, M
ihda
rand
one
mus
cle
hija
cker
are
flagg
ed b
y C
APP
S. F
ourth
airl
iner
hija
ckin
g fa
ils.
Res
ults
.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Isra
eli �
Wra
th o
f God
� Te
ams
Rec
ruitm
ent
Isra
eli A
rmy.
Trai
ning 1
year
bas
ic c
ours
e, 1
5% g
radu
ate.
Hyp
er-R
ealis
m
Dis
cipl
ine
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
�Wra
th o
f God
� Te
amsc
td�
Ale
ph (K
iller
s):
2B
eth
(Gua
rds/
Get
away
Per
sonn
el)
2H
eth
(Log
istic
s)2
Ayi
n (S
urve
illan
ce &
Pla
nnin
g)6
�8
Oop
h (C
omm
unic
atio
ns)
2
Res
ults
:Sim
ple
Task
, Com
plet
e Su
rpris
e, ~
90%
Eff
ectiv
e.Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Impl
icat
ions
Vio
lenc
e �
and
espe
cial
ly c
ompl
ex v
iole
nce
�is
diff
icul
t. R
adic
al im
prov
emen
t is u
nlik
ely.
Smal
l def
ensi
ve st
eps m
atte
r.V
isas
, CA
PPS,
will
ingn
ess t
o in
form
aut
horit
ies,
surv
eilla
nce.
Com
plex
A
ttack
s
Entre
pren
eurs
, Out
sour
cing
&V
entu
re C
apita
l
Out
sour
cing
&
V
entu
re C
apita
l
Al Q
aeda
: G
rant
s, V
entu
re C
apita
l & In
-Hou
se F
undi
ngTh
e (N
on)-
Stat
e Sp
onso
r St
artu
psEn
trepr
eneu
rsM
erge
rs &
Ext
erna
l Inn
ovat
ion
In-H
ouse
Pro
ject
sTh
e C
ole
Bom
bing
(199
9)9-
11 A
ttack
s (20
01)
Evad
ing
Lim
its to
Gro
wth
?Th
e Fi
nanc
ial W
ar
Out
sour
cing
&
V
entu
re C
apita
l
New
Pro
blem
s
Ron
ald
Coa
se &
The
The
ory
of th
e Fi
rm
The
Dow
nsid
e of
Pro
fess
iona
lism
Jam
al A
hmed
al F
adl &
L�H
ouss
aine
Khe
rcht
ou
Age
ncy
Prob
lem
sC
ompe
ting
Star
t-Ups
The
Ura
nium
Fra
ud
Coo
rdin
atio
n Pr
oble
ms
The
Jord
ania
n M
illen
nium
Plo
tTh
e C
anad
ian
Mill
enni
um P
lot
Out
sour
cing
&
V
entu
re C
apita
l
Doe
s Al Q
aeda
Out
sour
ce B
ecau
se It
�s E
ffic
ient
�
. . .
Or B
ecau
se it
Has
To?
. . .
Or B
ecau
se it
Pro
vide
s Sta
tus?
Con
clus
ion:
The
Fra
gilit
y of
Te
rror
ism
?
Con
clus
ion
Is T
erro
rism
Fra
gile
?
Econ
omie
s of S
cale
Mem
bers
, Rec
ruits
, Sym
path
izer
sSu
cces
s, H
orro
r & R
idic
ule
Is T
erro
rism
Sel
f-Li
miti
ng?
Mes
sian
ic E
xpec
tatio
ns, E
xam
ple,
and
Fut
ility
A G
ener
atio
nal C
ycle
?
Furth
er R
eadi
ngTe
rror
ism
The
ory
Wal
ter L
aque
ur, A
His
tory
of T
erro
rism
(Tra
nsac
tion:
200
2)__
____
____
__, T
he N
ew T
erro
rism
: Fan
atic
ism
and
the
Arm
sof
Mas
s Des
truc
tion
(Oxf
ord
Uni
vers
ity P
ress
: 199
9)__
____
____
__, N
o En
d to
War
: Ter
rori
sm in
the
Twen
ty-F
irst
C
entu
ry(C
ontin
uum
: 200
4)A
lan
Der
show
itz, W
hy T
erro
rism
Wor
ks(Y
ale
Uni
vers
ity
Pres
s: 2
002)
Terr
oris
m H
isto
ry
Nat
iona
l Com
mis
sion
on
Terr
oris
t Atta
cks,
The
9/11
C
omm
issi
on R
epor
t (N
orto
n: 2
004)
Pete
r Har
cler
ode,
Sec
ret S
oldi
ers:
Spe
cial
For
ces i
n th
e W
ar A
gain
st T
erro
rism
(Cas
sell:
200
0)D
avid
Tin
nin,
The
Hit
Team
(Del
l: 19
76)
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
Terr
oris
m H
isto
ry, c
td.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Cen
ter f
or C
ount
er-T
erro
rism
, ava
ilabl
eat
http
://w
ww
.ict.o
rg.il
/inte
r_te
r/org
det.c
fm?o
rgid
=70
US
Stat
e D
epar
tmen
t, �S
igni
fican
t Ter
roris
t Inc
iden
ts,
1961
-200
3: A
Brie
f Chr
onol
ogy,
� av
aila
ble
at
http
://w
ww
.stat
e.go
v./r/
pa/h
o/pu
bs/fs
/inde
x.cf
m?d
ocid
=590
2
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
Inte
llige
nce
R. A
ldric
h, T
he H
idde
n H
and:
Bri
tain
, Am
eric
a,
and
Col
d W
ar S
ecre
t Int
ellig
ence
(Ove
rlook
Pr
ess:
200
2)M
. Bea
rden
and
J. R
isen
, The
Mai
n En
emy:
The
Insi
de
Stor
y of
the
CIA
�s F
inal
Sho
wdo
wn
with
the
KG
B (B
alla
ntin
e B
ooks
: 200
3)
Sabo
teur
s Jule
s Whi
tcov
er, S
abot
age
at B
lack
Tom
Mic
hael
Dob
bs, S
abot
eurs
: The
Naz
i War
Aga
inst
Am
eric
a (A
lfred
A. K
nopf
: 200
4)
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
Suic
ide
& S
uici
de W
eapo
ns
A. A
lver
ez, T
he S
avag
e G
od: A
Stu
dy o
f Sui
cide
(Ran
dom
Hou
se: 1
972)
R. O
�Nei
ll, S
uici
de S
quad
s of W
orld
War
II(S
alam
ande
r: N
ew Y
ork:
198
1)Is
rael
Min
istry
of F
orei
gn A
ffai
rs, �
Suic
ide
Bom
bers
fr
om Je
nin,
� (J
uly
2, 2
002)
, ava
ilabl
e at
ht
tp://
ww
w.n
ewyo
rk.is
rael
.org
/mfa
/go.
asp?
MFA
H0l
lu0.
A. H
arel
, �Th
e 10
0thSu
icid
e B
ombe
r,� H
aare
tz (A
ug.
10 2
001)
, ava
ilabl
e at
ht
tp://
ww
w.h
aare
tzda
ily.c
om/h
asen
/pag
es/
ShA
rt.jh
tml?
item
No=
8084
1.
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
How
War
s End
J. W
inic
k, A
pril
1865
: The
Mon
th T
hat S
aved
Am
eric
a(H
arpe
r-C
ollin
s: 2
001)
R. F
rank
, Dow
nfal
l: Th
e En
d of
the
Impe
rial
Ja
pane
se E
mpi
re(R
ando
m H
ouse
: 199
9)
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
Com
plex
ity The
Uni
ted
Stat
es S
trat
egic
Bom
bing
Sur
vey,
ava
ilabl
e at
http
://w
ww
.ane
si.c
om/u
ssbs
02.h
tm
Cas
ualti
es
Mat
thew
Whi
te, S
ourc
e Li
st a
nd D
etai
led
Dea
th T
olls
fo
r the
Man
-mad
e M
egad
eath
s of t
he T
wen
tieth
C
entu
ry, a
vaila
ble
at
http
://us
ers.r
cn.c
om/m
whi
te28
/war
stat
s.htm
Flig
ht S
imul
ator
s & T
erro
rism
Josh
ua T
ompk
ins,
�Air
Osa
ma,
� Sa
lon
(Jul
y 23
300
3)av
aila
ble
at
http
://w
ww
.salo
n.co
m/te
ch/fe
atur
e/20
03/0
7/23
/flig
htsi
m_t
erro
rism
.
Furth
er R
eadi
ng
W.B
. Yea
ts
____
____
____
___,
�Ea
ster
191
6,�
avai
labl
e at
ht
tp://
ww
w.a
ngel
fire.
com
/in/p
dutta
/eas
ter1
916.
htm
l
____
____
____
___,
�In
Mem
ory
Of E
va G
ore-
Boo
th
and
Con
Mar
kiew
icz�
ava
ilabl
e at
ht
tp://
ww
w.p
oetry
conn
ectio
n.ne
t/poe
ts/W
illia
m_B
utle
r_Y
eats
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5.