the third quarter of 2011 analysis of all industrial …. trends of all industrial activities (1)...

1. Trends of all industrial activities

(1) Outline of all industrial activities

(2) Outline of industrial activities

1) Production trends for the quarter

2) Production trends by item

3) Inventory trends

(3) Outline of tertiary industry activities

【Topics】 Trends in the Tertiary Industry Seen from Employment

2. Supply trends and final demand

(1) Outline of supply trends for final demand

1) Supply trends for the quarter

2) Trends in IT-related consumption and investment

(2) Outline of exports and imports

1) Export trends for the quarter

2) Import trends for the quarter

【Topics】 Exports from Ports Located in the Earthquake-stricken

Areas

The Third Quarter of 2011

Analysis of All Industrial Activities

Summary

Contents

December 7, 2011 Research and Statistics Department,

Minister’s Secretariat, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

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Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2006

Ⅲ Ⅳ┘

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2007

Ⅲ Ⅳ┘

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2008

Ⅲ Ⅳ┘

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2009

Ⅲ Ⅳ┘

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2010

Ⅲ Ⅳ┘

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2011

Ⅲ

Indices of All Industrial ActivitiesIndices of Construction Industry ActivityIndices of Industrial ProductionIndices of Teritary Industry ActivityIndices of Government Services, etc.

Ⅳ2010

Ⅰ└

Ⅱ2011

Ⅲ

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

(%)

Indices of Industrial ProductionIndices of Teritary Industry ActivityIndices of Construction Industry ActivityIndices of Government Services, etc.Indices of All Industrial Activities

1. Trends of all industrial activities

(1) Outline of all industrial activities (third quarter of 2011) ～ Industrial activities almost recovered from the damage of the earthquake ～

【Characteristics】

・The indices of all industrial activities increased by 2.0% from the previous quarter, up for the first time

in four quarters.

・In spite of a decrease in government services, industrial production, tertiary industry activities, and

construction activities increased.

Changes in the Indices of All Industrial Activities (2005 = 100)

① Index level (2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted) ② Ratio to the previous quarter,

Contribution ratio to growth rate

Notes: 1. The weight is based on the contribution ratio, by sector, of gross value added in the input-output table of YR 2005 (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). Since the Indices of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries Production contain no data corresponding to the Indices of All Industrial Activities for quarters, the weight was calculated without them.

2. The annual values and % change from the same quarter of the previous year are original indices, and others are based on seasonally adjusted indices.

3. The indices of all industrial activities and the indices of agriculture, forestry and fisheries for 2010 are provisional.

2009 2010 2011

Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ

93.0 P 95.9 93.8 93.9 95.1 95.9 96.6 96.4 94.6 94.2 96.1

-7.7 P 3.1 1.1 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.7 -0.2 -1.9 -0.4 2.0

－－ -7.0 -3.7 3.9 3.5 3.2 2.1 -0.5 -1.7 -0.4

Indices of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 94.8 P 92.0 ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) -3.3 P -3.0 ・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year －－・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・・

Indices of Construction Industry Activity 81.6 75.9 79.8 75.6 76.1 75.4 76.8 75.4 77.4 71.8 74.5

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) -5.6 -7.0 -6.2 -5.3 0.7 -0.9 1.9 -1.8 2.7 -7.2 3.8

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year －－ -6.4 -13.5 -12.4 -11.3 -3.2 -0.6 1.6 -4.8 -2.9

Indices of Industrial Production 81.1 94.4 83.2 88.1 94.6 95.3 94.3 94.2 92.3 88.6 92.4

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) -21.9 16.4 5.3 5.9 7.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.1 -2.0 -4.0 4.3

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year －－ -19.4 -4.3 28.0 21.3 14.0 5.9 -2.5 -6.8 -2.1

Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity 96.5 97.8 96.8 96.5 97.2 97.6 98.2 98.5 97.1 97.1 98.2

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) -5.2 1.3 0.6 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 -1.4 0.0 1.1

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year －－ -4.7 -3.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1

Indices of Government Services, etc. 98.5 97.8 98.4 98.4 98.0 97.8 97.8 97.5 97.7 98.4 98.3

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year) 0.1 -0.7 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.7 -0.1

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year －－ 0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.5

2009 2010

Indices of All Industry Activity

%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)

%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year

－1－

(2) Outline of industrial activities ～ Industrial production almost recovered from the damage of the earthquake ～ 1) Production trends for the quarter


・ The indices of industrial production for the third quarter of 2011 increased by 4.3% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in five quarters. ・ By type of goods, non-durable consumer goods showed a decline, but durable consumer goods and producer goods increased. ・ By type of business, nine industries, such as transport equipment industry, increased, while eight industries, including the chemicals industry, decreased. ・ By demand, shipments for domestic demand increased for the first time in five quarters, and shipments for exports increased for the first time in two quarters.

2) Production trends by item


＜Major items that increased during the third quarter of 2011＞

①Large passenger cars (for the first time in six quarters)

・・・Production for the U.S. and East Asia in addition to domestic use increased.

②Small passenger cars (for the first time in seven quarters)

・・・Production for the U.S. and Europe in addition to domestic use increased.

③Drive, transmission and control parts (for the first time in three quarters)

＜Major items that decreased during the third quarter of 2011＞

①Semiconductor products machinery (for the first time in two quarters)

・・・Production for domestic use, Taiwan, South Korea, and China, etc. decreased. ②Liquid crystal television (for three consecutive quarters)

・・・Due to a fall-off of demand that had been spurred by the complete transition to digital

terrestrial transmission

③Plastic film and plastic sheets (for the first time in four quarters)

Changes in the Indices of Industrial Production (by type of goods) (2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted)

Changes in shipments for exports and domestic shipments

(Change from previous quarter, growth rate contribution)

Changes from the Previous Quarter by Item and Contribution Ratio(Note) (Third quarter of 2011)

Note: Degree of contribution to total growth rate of 4.3% (% points)

Items that Contributed to IncreaseChanges from

the Previous

Quarter (%)

Contribution

Ratio

(% points)

Items that Contributed to DecreaseChanges from

the Previous

Quarter (%)

Contribution

Ratio

(% points)

①Large passenger cars 41.2 1.87 ①Semiconductor products machinery -25.1 -0.32

②Small passenger cars 54.9 0.62 ②Liquid crystal television -23.9 -0.14

③Drive, transmission and control parts 29.7 0.53 ③Plastic film and plastic sheets -9.2 -0.11

④Chassis and Body parts 49.3 0.41 ④Skin lotion and beauty essence -10.6 -0.07

⑤Cellular tehephone 72.1 0.27 ⑤Makeup foundation -16.6 -0.06

－2－

-40

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%Change in production from the same quarter of the previous year

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Unintended decreasing stage of inventory

Expanding inventory stage

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3) Inventory trends


・The inventory cycle for the third quarter of 2011 was as follows.

① Mining and manufacturing

・・・Shifting from an inventory adjustment stage to an expanding inventory stage again

② Final demand goods

・・・Shifting from an inventory adjustment stage to an expanding inventory stage again

③ Producer goods

・・・ Still remained at an expanding inventory stage

④ Electronic parts and devices


⑤ Iron and steel


⑥ Transport equipment

・・・Shifting from an inventory adjustment stage to an unintended decreasing stage of inventory

Changes in Inventory Cycle

①Mining and manufacturing ②Final demand goods ③ Producer goods

④ Electronic parts and devices ⑤Iron and steel ⑥Transport equipment

-80

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－3－

(3) Outline of tertiary industry activities ～ Tertiary industry activities remaining unchanged ～

Trends for the quarter

【Characteristics】・Tertiary industry activities for the third quarter of 2011 increased by 1.1% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in three quarters. ・By type of business, eight out of 13 major categories, including the wholesale trade and retail trade industries, showed increases. ・ Although tertiary industry activities showed a quarterly increase thanks to a sharp increase in the previous quarter, no significant rise is observed in monthly data, and as a whole, tertiary industry activities have remained unchanged.

Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity of Major Industry Sectors (2005=100, seasonally adjusted)

Note: The line graph shows the indices of tertiary industry activities of five major industries.

Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities (2005=100)

Note: The annual figures and the changes from the same quarter of the previous year are based on the original indices, while the others are based on seasonally-adjusted indices.

2009 2010 2009 2010 2011

Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ ⅢTertiary Industry 96.5 97.8 96.8 96.5 97.2 97.6 98.2 98.5 97.1 97.1 98.2

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -5.2 1.3 0.6 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 -1.4 0.0 1.1

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -4.7 -3.4 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1

Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply & Water 98.1 103.1 97.1 100.1 103.2 103.0 105.0 101.9 104.0 98.4 97.3

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -5.8 5.1 -0.9 3.1 3.1 -0.2 1.9 -3.0 2.1 -5.4 -1.1

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -7.1 -1.5 5.2 5.2 8.8 1.4 1.1 -4.5 -7.5

Information & Communications 105.0 106.6 104.1 106.1 104.8 107.6 107.2 108.4 103.8 106.6 105.8

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -0.9 1.5 -2.7 1.9 -1.2 2.7 -0.4 1.1 -4.2 2.7 -0.8

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -2.1 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.1 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4

Transport & Postal Activities 95.7 98.5 95.8 96.4 98.5 98.3 98.8 98.8 97.5 97.8 97.7

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -5.9 2.9 0.6 0.6 2.2 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.1

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -5.7 -2.0 3.9 3.1 3.4 1.6 -0.8 -0.5 -1.1

Wholesale Trade & Retail Trade 89.4 91.0 89.8 89.8 89.9 90.6 91.7 92.4 90.9 90.8 92.2

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -12.6 1.8 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.8 -1.6 -0.1 1.5

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -12.2 -9.3 -0.2 1.7 2.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.5

Finance & Insurance 94.8 96.3 94.8 95.3 96.3 96.8 95.9 96.5 96.6 95.1 97.3

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -2.7 1.6 -0.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 -0.9 0.6 0.1 -1.6 2.3

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -2.8 0.2 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 -1.5 1.4

Real Estate & Goods Rental and Leasing 100.2 99.7 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.9 99.7 99.1 98.6 98.3 98.1

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -1.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5

Scientific Research, Professional and Technical Services 96.2 94.3 100.1 96.0 95.1 93.5 94.9 93.8 95.2 96.4 95.8

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -2.7 -2.0 6.5 -4.1 -0.9 -1.7 1.5 -1.2 1.5 1.3 -0.6

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ 2.1 -0.2 0.0 -2.2 -3.8 -1.8 0.3 2.8 1.1

Accommodations, Eating and Drinking Services 101.2 103.0 101.1 101.2 102.2 101.9 103.6 103.9 100.1 99.9 103.8

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -3.5 1.8 0.1 0.1 1.0 -0.3 1.7 0.3 -3.7 -0.2 3.9

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -3.0 -3.0 1.4 0.7 2.5 2.6 -2.4 -2.0 0.2

Living-Related and Personal Services & Amusement Services 91.5 89.8 91.6 90.4 90.4 89.7 90.1 88.8 82.8 83.2 88.4

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -2.8 -1.9 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -0.8 0.4 -1.4 -6.8 0.5 6.3


Learning Support 80.7 80.9 79.7 81.3 80.4 80.0 81.3 81.7 81.1 79.4 79.9

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -1.6 0.2 -0.3 2.0 -1.1 -0.5 1.6 0.5 -0.7 -2.1 0.6

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -2.9 -1.9 -1.6 -0.5 1.8 1.1 0.9 -0.8 -1.7

Medical, Health Care & Welfare 106.9 111.0 107.7 108.0 108.9 110.9 111.7 112.4 114.4 113.6 114.4

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) 3.0 3.8 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.6 1.8 -0.7 0.7

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ 3.4 3.1 2.8 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.7 2.4 2.4

Compound Services 92.1 88.8 91.2 92.4 89.7 87.7 89.0 89.0 85.4 76.9 82.9

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -2.3 -3.6 2.0 1.3 -2.9 -2.2 1.5 0.0 -4.0 -10.0 7.8


Miscellaneous Services (Except Government Services, etc.) 99.5 98.8 99.1 96.8 100.2 99.5 98.3 97.6 97.6 101.0 101.5

(%Change from the Previous Quarter (Year)) -7.0 -0.7 -0.8 -2.3 3.5 -0.7 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 3.5 0.5

(%Change from the Same Quarter of the Previous Year) －－ -6.1 -8.3 -1.5 -0.1 -1.1 0.0 -2.2 1.5 3.1

－4－

Trends in the Tertiary Industry Seen from Employment

Fig. I-2-5 Changes in Indices of Industrial Production

Notes: 1. Figures are the sums of industries classified as follows, based on the Japan Standard Industrial Classification (revised in Nov. 2007). Primary industry: Agriculture and forestry, and Fisheries Secondary industry: Mining and quarrying of stone and gravel; Construction; and Manufacturing Tertiary industry: Electricity, gas, heat supply and water; Information and communications; Transport and postal activities; Wholesale and retail trade; Finance and insurance; Real estate and goods rental and leasing; Scientific research, professional and technical services; Accommodations, eating and drinking services; Living- related and personal services and amusement services; Education, learning support; Medical, health care and welfare; Compound services; Services, n.e.c.; and Government, except elsewhere classified 2. As some industries cannot be classified, the sum of workers engaged in the primary to tertiary industries does not match the total number of workers. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” by MIC

Fig. I-2-6 Changes in Number of Workers

【Analysis Point 1】～ The percentage of those working in the tertiary industry among all workers rose from 67.8%, which was recorded in 2007, prior to the Lehman Shock, to 70.2% in 2010 ～【Characteristics】・The number of workers in Japan decreased at an accelerated pace due to expanding overseas transfer of production bases in response to the appreciation of the yen, and drastic production adjustments in the manufacturing industry after the Lehman Shock, which occurred in September 2008. ・Under such circumstances, the number of workers engaged in the tertiary industry has continued to increase, and their percentage among all workers rose by 2.4% points from 67.8%, which was recorded in 2007, prior to the Lehman Shock, to reach 70.2% in 2010.

Note: The figure for October 2011 is preliminary.

Source: “Indices of Industrial Production” (METI)

Source: “Labor Force Survey”

(Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

Fig. I-2-7 Changes in Number of Workers Engaged in Primary to Tertiary Industries

－5－

【Analysis Point 2】～ Since the Lehman Shock, the number of workers has continued to decline sharply in the manufacturing industry, while the number increased significantly in the medical, health care and welfare industry ～【Characteristics】・The number of workers engaged in the manufacturing industry has continued to show yearly declines, by 210,000 in 2008, by 710,000 in 2009, and by 240,000 in 2010. In the mean time, those engaged in the medical, health care and welfare industry increased by 190,000 in 2008, by 230,000 in 2009, and by 320,000 in 2010. ・The percentage of those engaged in the manufacturing industry among all workers declined from 18.2% in 2007 to 16.8% in 2010, while the percentage of those engaged in the medical, health care and welfare industry rose from 9.0% to 10.4%. ・ Those engaged in the wholesale and retail trade industry, which account for the largest share in tertiary industry workers, decreased from the previous year by 100,000 in 2008 and by 120,000 in 2009, but increased by 20,000 in 2010. ・ The information and communications industry, which showed a largest yearly increase of 120,000 in 2007, saw a decline of 30,000 in 2008, but regained an increase in 2009 by 40,000 and in 2010 by 30,000. ・ The number of those engaged in the services industry (n.e.c.), including dispatched workers, continued to increase up until 2008, but decreased from the previous year by 220,000 in 2009 and by 80,000 in 2010.

Fig. I-2-8 Changes in Number of Workers by Industry

Fig. I-2-9 Share by Industry among Total Number of Workers

Source:

“Labor Force Survey” (MIC)

Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” by MIC

－6－

①Men ②Women

【Analysis Point 3】～ By gender, since 2008, the number of female workers has increased significantly in the medical, health care and welfare industry, while the number of male workers showed a large drop in the manufacturing and construction industries ～【Characteristics】・The number of male workers decreased by 1.38 million from 2007, prior to the Lehman Shock, through to 2010. The drop was much larger than that of the total number of workers (down by 0.84 million). ・The numbers of male and female workers both have continued to decline sharply in the manufacturing industry. The decline of male workers from the previous year was by 80,000 (accounting for around 40% of the total decline in the manufacturing industry) in 2008, by 420,000 (around 60% (id.)) in 2009, and by 160,000 (around 70% (id.)) in 2010. ・ The numbers of male and female workers have also decreased in the construction industry. The decline of male workers from the previous year was by 120,000 (accounting for around 80% of the total decline in the construction industry) in 2008, by 170,000 (around 90% (id.)) in 2009, and by 130,000 (around 70% (id.)) in 2010. ・ The numbers of male and female workers both continue to increase in the medical, health care and welfare industry. The increase of female workers from the previous year was by 140,000 (accounting for around 70% of the total increase in the medical, health care and welfare industry) in 2008, by 160,000 (around 70% (id.)) in 2009, and by 250,000 (around 80% (id.)) in 2010. ・ Other major industries where the number of male workers increased were the wholesale and retail trade industry (up by 40,000 from the previous year in 2010) and the information and communications industry (up by 40,000 (id.) in 2009 and by 20,000 (id.) in 2010).

Fig. I-2-11 Changes in Labor Force Population and Number of Workers by Gender

Source: “Labor Force Survey” (MIC)

Fig. I-2-12 Changes in Number of Workers by Industry (Men)

Fig. I-2-13 Changes in Number of Workers by Industry (Women)


－7－

【Analysis Point 4】～ By age group and gender, the number of middle-aged female workers increased significantly in the medical, health care and welfare industry, while the number of young male workers decreased sharply in the manufacturing and construction industries ～【Characteristics】・ Looking at changes in the number of workers (from 2007 to 2010) by age group and gender, male workers aged between 15 and 24, and between 25 and 34 decreased by 390,000 and 850,000, respectively. These declines were larger than those in the labor force population of the same age groups (by 360,000 and 740,000, respectively) in simple comparison without considering changes in cohort effects. ・ Young male workers decreased in the manufacturing and construction industries. ・ The number of middle-aged female workers increased in the medical, health care and welfare industry.

Fig. I-2-14 Changes in Labor Force Population and Number of Workers by Age Group and Gender (2007 → 2010)

Notes: 1. It should be noted that Fig. I-2-14 only shows the results of simple comparison without considering changes in cohort effects (merely changes in labor force population and the number of workers by age group). See Table I-2-6 in the main text for the composition of labor force population and the number of workers. 2. It should also be noted that the first baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1949) were in their 50s in 2007 but became between 61 and 63 in 2010, and that the second baby-boom generation (those born between 1971 and 1974) were between 34 and 37 in 2007 but became between 37 and 40 in 2010. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” by MIC

Notes: 1. It should be noted that Fig. I-2-15 only shows the results of simple comparison without considering changes in cohort effects (merely changes in the number of workers in respective industries by age group). See Table I-2-6 in the main text for the composition of the number of workers. 2. It should also be noted that the first baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1949) were in their 50s in 2007 but became between 61 and 63 in 2010, and that the second baby-boom generation (those born between 1971 and 1974) were between 34 and 37 in 2007 but became between 37 and 40 in 2010. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” by MIC

Fig. I-2-15 Changes in Number of Workers in “Construction,” “Manufacturing,” and “Medical, Health Care and Welfare” Industries by Age Group and Gender (2007 → 2010)

－8－

【Analysis Point 5】～ By employment format, female non-regular employees increased, while the number of male regular employees declined significantly ～【Characteristics】・ Looking at changes in the number of regular and non-regular employees (excluding officers) from 2007 to 2010, regular employees decreased by 860,000 but non-regular employees increased by 230,000. ・ As male regular employees decreased significantly in the manufacturing and construction industries, the total number of male regular employees decreased by 930,000 in all industries. ・ Female non-regular employees increased significantly in the medical, health care and welfare industry, and the total number of female non-regular employees increased by 240,000 in all industries. ・ Regular employees decreased among young men, and non-regular employees increased among middle- aged women. ・ Regular employees increased in some of the tertiary industry, such as the information and communications industry, but such increase is smaller than the decline in the number of regular employees in the manufacturing and construction industries, falling short of absorbing regular employees from these industries (the percentage of regular employees among all employees is 79.0% for the manufacturing industry and 83.0% for the construction industry).

Fig. I-2-16 Changes in Number of Regular and Non-regular Employees (excl. Officers) by Industry (2007 → 2010)

Note: It should be noted that Fig. I-2-16 only shows changes in number. See Table I-2-7 in the main text for the composition of the number of employees. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey, Detailed Tabulation” by MIC

Fig. I-2-17 Changes in Number of Regular and Non-regular Employees (excl. Officers) by Gender and Industry

(2007 → 2010)

Fig. I-2-18 Changes in Number of Regular and Non-regular Employees (excl. Officers) by Gender (2007 → 2010)

Notes: 1. It should be noted that Fig. I-2-17 only shows changes in number. See Tables I-2-8 and I-2-9 in the main text for the composition of the number of employees. 2. Those aged between 15 and 24 do not include students. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey, Detailed Tabulation” by MIC

Notes: 1. Figures for regular and non-regular employees aged between 15 and 24 do not include students. 2. It should be noted that Fig. I-2-18 only shows the results of simple comparison without considering changes in cohort effects (merely changes in the number of employees by age group). See Table I-2-6 in the main text for the composition of labor force population, and Table I-2-10 in the main text for the composition of the number of employees. 3. It should also be noted that the first baby-boom generation (those born between 1947 and 1949) were in their 50s in 2007 but became between 61 and 63 in 2010, and that the second baby-boom generation (those born between 1971 and 1974) were between 34 and 37 in 2007 but became between 37 and 40 in 2010. Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” and the “Labor Force Survey, Detailed Tabulation” by MIC

－9－

Fig. I-2-19 Changes in Overall Unemployment Rate by Gender and Age Group

① Total

② Men

③ Women

【Analysis Point 6】～ The overall unemployment rate improved for women in 2010 but continued to deteriorate for men in 2009 and 2010, and has been at a high level especially among young people ～【Characteristics】・ When breaking down changes in the overall unemployment rate into factors related to workers, factors related to the population aged 15 or over, and factors related to the population not in labor force, it becomes clear that the improvement of the overall unemployment rate for women in 2010 was brought about by factors related to workers and factors related to the population not in labor force. In the meantime, the deterioration of the overall unemployment rate for men after the Lehman Shock has been slowed not by an increase in the number of workers but by the expansion of the population not in labor force. ・ The overall unemployment rate among young people (aged between 15 and 24, and aged between 25 and 34) has remained at a high level, but that for women improved in 2010. On the other hand, the overall unemployment rate for men deteriorated in 2009 and 2010.

Fig. I-2-20 Factor Analysis of Changes in Overall Unemployment Rate by Gender

① Total

② Men

③ Women

Source: “Labor Force Survey” (MIC) Source: Prepared based on the “Labor Force Survey” (MIC)

Note: Factors of the unemployment rate are analyzed as follows.

U=U/L and U=L–E, L=F–nL

∆U={∆(L–E)・L–(L–E)∆L}/L2

= –∆E/ L + E∆F/L2 – E∆nL/L2

Factors: (Workers) (Population aged 15 or over) (Population not in labor force)

U: Unemployment rate F: Population aged 15 or over L: Labor force population

nL: Population not in labor force E: Workers U: The unemployed

－10－

【Analysis Point 7】～ Tertiary industry activities, which involve nearly 70% of all workers, have yet to regain the level prior to the Lehman Shock, and the overall recovery has not been achieved ～【Characteristics】・ Looking at the trends in tertiary industry activities, which involve nearly 70% of all workers and account for nearly 60% of the value added by all industries, the indices of tertiary industry activity, which declined significantly after the Lehman Shock, have been recovering, led by the wholesale and retail trade industry with a considerable weight, but has not regained the level prior to the Lehman Shock. ・ DIs for all industries adopted in the indices of tertiary industry activity show that favorable business confidence has not expanded much to businesses categorized into subdivisions after the Lehman Shock. The overall recovery involving all industries has not been achieved. ・ The indices of tertiary industry activity have recovered after the earthquake, but DIs for all industries have continued to be negative since last March.

Fig. I-2-21 Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity

Source: “Indices of Tertiary Industry

Activity” (METI)

Fig. I-2-22 Changes in Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity (Original indices)

(Comparison with the same month of the previous year)

Fig. I-2-23 Changes in DIs for All Industries in Indices

of Tertiary Industry Activity (By type of business)

Note: The shaded part indicates the economic contraction stage.

Source: Prepared based on “Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity”

(METI)

Notes: 1. DIs are calculated as follows. Weights and change rates are not taken into consideration. DI = (Number of industries that showed increases compared with the same quarter of the previous year – Number of industries that showed decreases (id.)) / Number of all industries×100 (% points) DI>0 means that the number of industries with yearly increases is larger. DI=0 means that the number remained unchanged. DI<0 means that the number of industries with yearly decreases is larger. 2. The shaded part indicates the economic contraction stage. Source: Prepared based on “Indices of Tertiary Industry Activity” (METI) －11－

While the number of workers engaged in the secondary industry continues to decrease and the weight

of the tertiary industry has been increasing in Japan’s industrial structure, the tertiary industry is

expected to play a role as the employment basis for those out of jobs in the manufacturing industry,

etc., creating employment opportunities not only for women and non-regular employees but also for

young men to obtain regular jobs, and to further expand their business activities.

【Analysis Point 8】～ Since January 2011, the number of workers has continued to increase in the medical, health care and welfare industry, but the overall number has been on a decline ～【Characteristics】・ The number of workers (comparison with the same month of the previous year) has continued to increase in the medical, health care and welfare industry since January 2011. ・ Increases have also been observed in some other industries, such as the scientific research, professional and technical services industry, and the education and learning support industry. However, the overall number of workers has been on a decline.

Fig. I-2-24 Changes in Number of Workers by Industry (Comparison with the Same Month of the Previous Year) since January 2011

Note: Figures from March to August exclude those for Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures.


－12－

2. Supply Trends and Final Demand

(1) Outline of supply trends for final demand

1) Supply trends for the quarter


・Supply for final demand of domestic products as a whole increased by 4.4% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in three quarters. ・Overall industrial supply for consumption increased by 2.6% from the previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter, thanks to an increase in personal consumption, etc. ・Overall industrial supply for investment increased by 4.3% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in three quarters, due to increases in demand for private corporation facilities and private housing, in spite of a decrease in demand for public investment. ・Exports increased by 7.7% from the previous quarter, up for the first time in two quarters, while imports decreased by 2.4% (id.), down for the first time in two quarters. ・IT-related consumption and IT-related investments increased by 8.8% and 0.3%, respectively, from the previous quarter, both up for the second consecutive quarter.

Changes in the Indices of All Industries (Final Demand Components)

(2005=100, ratio to the previous year (quarter))

Note: 1. As the indices of all industries (final demand components) are calculated using various statistical data, preliminary figures are used for some basic data. Therefore, note that the indices of the previous quarters have been corrected to the revised figures. 2. Ratios to the previous year are original indices and other figures are based on seasonally adjusted indices. Source: “The Indices of All Industries Activity (Final demand components)” (Estimated values)

2009 2010 2009 2010 2011Ratio to

the

previous

year

Ratio to

the

previous

year

Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ

Total of final demand sector -7.8 4.4 1.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 -2.9 -1.8 4.4

Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -21.9 18.8 8.4 10.0 0.3 4.0 2.5 -0.1 -9.9 -7.1 19.3

Tertiary industries (Services) -3.8 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 -1.5 0.2 1.4

Consumption -3.6 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -2.4 0.2 2.6

Personal consumption -5.4 4.0 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.4 -0.4 -3.5 0.1 3.5

Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -10.5 12.1 7.7 3.8 0.0 1.7 4.3 -1.0 -8.7 -1.9 11.0

Tertiary industries (Services) -3.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.3 -1.1 0.1 1.4

(Special) IT-related -3.5 7.7 -1.2 2.0 0.1 4.6 1.8 0.6 -6.3 1.4 8.8

Government consumption 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3

Investment -14.6 2.0 -1.2 0.2 2.2 -0.5 2.2 0.7 -3.7 -1.2 4.3

Public investment 2.8 -4.6 -3.0 -0.9 2.2 -5.9 -1.3 -5.8 -0.8 0.9 -0.9

Private housing -12.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.0 1.8 -2.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 -3.8 6.6

Private corporation facilities -20.5 6.1 -0.9 0.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.8 -4.2 -2.2 4.5

Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -31.1 20.6 4.7 2.8 15.2 2.0 3.5 1.2 -6.4 0.4 8.6

Construction -9.4 -6.7 -13.2 -6.3 -0.5 3.6 3.6 8.3 0.9 -15.6 2.3

Tertiary industries (Services) -15.0 0.7 -0.6 1.4 -2.2 3.4 -0.8 2.3 -3.3 2.9 0.0

(Special) IT-related -8.7 1.6 -2.3 1.5 -0.3 3.4 -1.0 0.3 -6.8 6.1 0.3

Exports -24.4 24.2 7.5 7.7 10.7 1.3 -0.9 3.0 1.6 -11.1 7.7

Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -26.4 27.1 7.9 12.3 9.9 0.7 -1.3 3.2 3.1 -11.1 7.7

Tertiary industries (Services) -19.3 17.7 6.8 5.5 6.7 2.1 -0.4 0.3 1.9 -11.4 6.7

Imports -14.4 12.4 9.3 1.4 3.1 1.9 3.3 0.7 -0.5 3.1 -2.4

Mining and manufacturing (Goods) -14.5 15.7 8.5 1.0 5.9 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 6.6 -6.5

Tertiary industries (Services) -12.3 4.1 4.6 4.6 -0.9 -1.2 1.4 -1.8 -0.2 -5.4 8.4

－13－

2) Trends of IT-related consumption and investment

【Characteristics】・ IT-related consumption for the third quarter of 2011 increased by 8.8% from the previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter, and non-IT-related consumption also showed an increase of 3.4% (id.), up for the first time in four quarters. ・ IT-related investment for private corporation facilities increased by 0.3% from the previous quarter, up for the second consecutive quarter, and non-IT-related investment also increased by 4.8% (id.), up for the first time in three quarters.

Note: 1. IT-related consumption consists of that of mobile phones, car navigation systems, desktop computers, notebook computers, regional and long-distance telecommunications, ISP, mobile telecommunications, software products, and Internet-related services, all of which are supplied for personal consumption.

2. IT-related investments are investments related to communication wires and cables, power wires and optical fiber products for cables, digital and full-color copying machines, key system telephone equipment, electronic switching systems, digital transmission equipment, fixed communication equipment, cellular telephones, basic exchanges for mobile customer premises equipment, general purpose computers, mid-range computers, desktop computers, notebook computers, external storage, input-output units, terminal equipment, system-use cash registers, projectors, industrial-use television equipment, and software development and program creation (subcontracts) that are supplied to private corporation facilities.

Source: “The Indices of All Industries Activity (Final demand components)” (Estimates)

Changes in IT-related Consumption Changes in IT-related Investment (2005=100, seasonally adjusted) (2005=100, seasonally adjusted)

3) Trends of capital investment of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

【Characteristics】・ Looking at capital investment of SMEs in the third quarter of 2011 by using the indices of

tertiary industry activity (wholesale trade of general machinery and equipment) as its surrogate, it decreased by 0.7% from the previous quarter, down for the first time in four quarters.

Sources: “Indices of Tertiary Industry Activities” (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry),

“Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (Quarterly Report)” (Ministry of Finance)

Changes in Capital Investment (2005=100, seasonally adjusted)

－14－

(2) Outline of exports and imports

1) Export trends for the quarter

【Characteristics】・Looking at the trends of exports for the third quarter of 2011 (on a quantity basis), in terms of the indices of all industries (final demand components), exports of goods (the mining and manufacturing industry) increased by 7.7% from the previous quarter and exports of services (the tertiary industry) increased by 6.7% (id.), resulting in a 7.7% increase from the previous quarter for all exports. ・By region, exports of goods to the United States, Europe, ASEAN, East Asia, and the Middle East all increased.

Changes in Exports by Region (Goods; 2005 = 100; Seasonally adjusted)

Changes in Imports by Region (Goods; 2005 = 100; Seasonally adjusted)

Notes: 1. The export index by region is estimated by rearranging the trade statistics into shipment index groups, and the import index by region is estimated by rearranging the trade statistics into supply index groups. 2. The names of each country or region are as follows: ASEAN: Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Brunei and Cambodia East Asia: Republic of Korea, Taiwan and China (including Hong Kong) Middle East: Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Gaza and Yemen Sources: “The Indices of Industrial Domestic Shipments and Exports,” “The Indices of Industrial Domestic Shipments and Imports” (both estimates)

2) Import trends for the quarter

【Characteristics】・ Looking at the trends of imports for the third quarter of 2011 (on a quantity basis), in terms of the indices of all industries (final demand components), imports of goods (mining and manufacturing industry) decreased by 6.5% from the previous quarter, although imports of services (the tertiary industry) increased by 8.4% (id.), resulting in a 2.4% decrease from the previous quarter for all imports. ・ By region, imports of goods from ASEAN, the United States, East Asia, the Middle East, and Europe all decreased.

－15－

Exports from Ports Located in the Earthquake-stricken Areas

(i) Data of the Trade Statistics of Japan show trade values by regional customs or branch office, but not by port. However, most of these customs and branches are located close to trading ports, and trade values by regional customs or branch office can be mostly regarded as values for the relevant port. It should be noted that analysis here treats regional customs and branch offices as respective trading ports, for simplicity.

(ii) The earthquake-stricken areas refer to areas that were considerable damaged due to the Great East Japan Earthquake as designated by the Minister of Finance through the public notice (Public Notice of the Ministry of Finance No. 83 of March 15, 2011) based on the provisions of Article 2-3 of the Customs Act (Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, and Ibaraki prefectures).

【Analysis Point 1】～ All ports within these areas have resumed exports and the export value is gradually recovering ～【Characteristics】・The value of exports from ports(i) located in the earthquake-stricken areas(ii) marked a sharp monthly decline of 35.0% and 71.7%, respectively, in March and April. ・Exports from those ports only accounted for 2.0% of the nationwide total (in 2010), but Japan’s overall export value decreased by 12.4% in April. This is considered to be due to damages to production facilities and disruption of supply chains caused by the earthquake.

Table II-3-5 Export Value by Port Located in the Earthquake-stricken Areas and Comparison with the Same Month (Period) of the Previous Year

Notes: 1. Figures for Hitachi include those for Hitachi Naka Port 2. As Tsukuba is located inland, it is difficult to specify which ports are used for trading. 3. Regional customs and branch offices other than “Hitachi” and “Tsukuba” are close to trading ports, and figures for these offices can be recognized as reflecting the export value by port. Source: Prepared based on the “Trade Statistics of Japan” (Ministry of Finance)

Annual total March April Apr.-Aug. March April Apr.-Aug. March April Apr.-Aug.

Aomori 9,244 578 718 4,254 689 832 5,075 19.1 15.9 19.3

Hachinohe 151,688 16,799 11,503 68,261 9,233 1,079 34,481 -45.0 -90.6 -49.5

Aomori Airport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - -

Miyako 40 0 7 7 0 0 0 - -100.0 -100.0

Kamaishi 10,387 1,083 500 4,880 593 8 2,958 -45.3 -98.4 -39.4

Ofunato 8,461 964 787 3,028 698 745 4,307 -27.6 -5.4 42.2

Sendai-Shiogama 298,790 25,845 26,054 122,656 12,182 1,119 19,788 -52.9 -95.7 -83.9

Ishinomaki 31,424 799 2,881 13,539 974 0 166 21.9 -100.0 -98.8

Kesennuma 588 78 53 248 9 0 23 -88.1 -100.0 -90.6

Sendai Airport 18,367 1,512 1,281 8,499 761 0 31 -49.6 -100.0 -99.6

Onahama 38,808 2,650 3,479 17,790 1,697 1,543 7,185 -36.0 -55.6 -59.6

Soma 13,915 1,370 1,357 5,116 703 171 5,640 -48.7 -87.4 10.2

Fukushima Airport 65 0 19 33 0 0 0 - -100.0 -100.0

Kashima 350,020 29,559 27,646 129,774 21,452 10,694 99,810 -27.4 -61.3 -23.1

Hitachi 343,457 29,482 20,459 134,815 20,553 6,433 52,749 -30.3 -68.6 -60.9

Tsukuba 101,372 8,486 7,618 41,041 7,988 6,908 33,694 -5.9 -9.3 -17.9

Total of the areas 1,376,626 119,205 104,361 553,939 77,531 29,531 265,906 -35.0 -71.7 -52.0

National total 67,399,627 6,000,424 5,889,744 28,257,230 5,861,236 5,156,620 26,829,761 -2.3 -12.4 -5.1

Export value (Million yen)Comparison with the Same Month

(Period) of the Previous Year (%)

2010 2011 2011

Regional customs and

branches

－16－

【Analysis Point 2】～ Composition of export items changed at Hachinohe, Sendai-Shiogama, Onahama, and Hitachi ～【Characteristics】・We compared the composition of export items before and after the earthquake, based on the accumulated export value from April to August 2010 (as data before the earthquake) and that from April to August 2011 (as data after the earthquake), and ascertained the following changes. ・After the earthquake, Hachinohe has recorded no exports of “equipment for manufacturing semiconductor devices or semiconductor ICs” (in fifth-place before the earthquake with a trade value of 7.01 billion yen). ・Sendai-Shiogama recorded significant declines of 22.38 billion yen compared with the same period of the previous year in “parts and accessories for printing machines” (previously in second-place with a trade value of 23.36 billion yen) and of 17.02 billion yen (id.) in “rubber pneumatic tires” (previously in first-place with a trade value of 24.96 billion yen). In addition, there have been no records of exports of “propylene” (previously in fifth-place with a trade value of 2.96 billion yen) and “light oil and preparations” (previously in eighth-place with a trade value of 2.35 billion yen) since the earthquake.

Notes: 1. Shaded items on the left are those that dropped out of the top ranks after the earthquake (hereinafter the same). 2. Shaded items on the right are those that were not top-ranked before the earthquake (hereinafter the same). 3. Item names in the tables are abbreviated. See the list of item codes in the Trade Statistics of Japan (MOF) for details (hereinafter the same). 4. Only items with a trade value of 100 million yen or more are shown in the tables (hereinafter the same). Source: Prepared based on the “Trade Statistics of Japan” (MOF) (hereinafter the same)

Table II-3-6 Composition of Export Items Before and After the Earthquake <Hachinohe>

Table II-3-8 Composition of Export Items Before and After the Earthquake <Sendai-Shiogama>

Fig. II-3-8 Changes in Export Values <Hachinohe> Fig. II-3-10 Changes in Export Values <Sendai-Shiogama>

HS code Item (Million yen) (%) HS code Item (Million yen) (%)

1 401110 Rubber pneumatic tires for passenger cars 24,956 20.3 401110 Rubber pneumatic tires for passenger cars 7,938 40.1

2 844399 Other parts and accessories for printing machines 23,355 19.0 840991 Parts of spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines 2,450 12.4

3 840991 Parts of spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines 8,276 6.7 720449 Other ferrous waste and scrap 1,115 5.6

4 722790 Other bars and rods, hot-rolled, of other alloy steel 3,406 2.8 853890 Parts for electrical switching apparatus 1,039 5.3

5 290122 Propene (propylene) 2,959 2.4 844399 Other parts and accessories for printing machines 976 4.9

6 720449 Other ferrous waste and scrap 2,916 2.4 722790 Other bars and rods, hot-rolled, of other alloy steel 657 3.3

7 721320 Bars & rods, hot-rolled, of iron or non-alloy steel 2,528 2.1 852990 Tuners, etc. for television receivers 620 3.1

8 271011 Light oil and preparations 2,351 1.9 721399 Other bars and rods, hot-rolled, of iron or non-alloy steel 446 2.3

9 721420 Other bars and rods of iron or non-alloy steel 2,286 1.9 853390 Parts of electrical resistors 426 2.2

10 852990 Tuners, etc. for television receivers 2,195 1.8 903290 Parts and accessories for automatic regulating instruments 373 1.9

Total of all items 122,656 100.0 Total of all items 19,788 100.0

Ran

k Before the earthquake (Apr. to Aug. 2010) After the earthquake (Apr. to Aug. 2011)


1 720260 Ferro-nickel 23,044 33.8 844399 Other parts and accessories for printing machines 11,598 33.6

2 844399 Other parts and accessories for printing machines 18,709 27.4 890120 Tankers 10,400 30.2

3 848630 Equipment for manufacturing flat panel displays 7,761 11.4 720260 Ferro-nickel 7,327 21.3

4 890120 Tankers 7,152 10.5 848630 Equipment for manufacturing flat panel displays 2,785 8.1

5 848620 Equipment for manufacturing semiconductor devices or semiconductor ICs 7,007 10.3 720449 Other ferrous waste and scrap 475 1.4

6 720449 Other ferrous waste and scrap 587 0.9 847989 Other machines and mechanical appliances 363 1.1

7 481013 Rolled paper and paper board for writing and printing 531 0.8 030799 Cuttlefish, etc., frozen 219 0.6

8 030799 Cuttlefish, etc., frozen 460 0.7 293090 Organo-sulphur compounds 186 0.5

9 481019 Other paper and paper board for writing and printing 368 0.5 852872 Television receivers 165 0.5

10 790112 Zinc, not alloyed (contained amount: less than 99.99%) 352 0.5


Ran


－17－

・Since the earthquake, Onahama has recorded no exports of items that were top-ranked before the earthquake, such as “other ferrous waste and scrap” (in second-place before the earthquake with a trade value of 1.65 billion yen), “vinylidene chloride polymers, in primary forms” (previously in third-place with a trade value of 1.52 billion yen), “waste and scrap of stainless steel” (previously in fourth-place with a trade value of 1.11 billion yen), and “parts of cranes” (previously in fifth-place with a trade value of 0.98 billion yen). ・At Hitachi, there have been no or very little records of exports of generator-related items, such as “electric motors and generators” (in sixth-place before the earthquake with a trade value of 4.2 billion yen), “other steam and vapour turbines” (previously in seventh-place with a trade value of 4.18 billion yen), and “other gas turbines” (previously in ninth-place with a trade value of 1.8 billion yen). ・It is considered that the changes in export items at Hitachi were caused by favorable domestic demand for generators, etc., as power companies increased power supply so as to cover shortages caused by the accident at the nuclear power plant and some large companies started in-house power generation so as to cope with the power shortage.

Table II-3-10 Composition of Export Items Before and After the Earthquake <Hitachi>

Table II-3-9 Composition of Export Items Before and After the Earthquake <Onahama>

Fig. II-3-11 Changes in Export Values <Onahama> Fig. II-3-12 Changes in Export Values <Hitachi>

Note: Some parts of the line graph for the comparison with the same month of the previous year are not indicated where calculation results are extremely large.


1 900211 Objective lenses for cameras, projectors, etc. 1,681 9.4 900211 Objective lenses for cameras, projectors, etc. 1,651 23.0

2 720449 Other ferrous waste and scrap 1,652 9.3 850140 Other AC motors, single-phase 812 11.3

3 390450 Vinylidene chloride polymers, in primary forms 1,519 8.5 853400 Printed circuits 420 5.9

4 720421 Waste and scrap of stainless steel 1,111 6.2 820740 Tools for taping or threading 364 5.1

5 843149 Parts of cranes 979 5.5 850131 DC motors, DC generators (output: 750W or more) 290 4.0

6 401110 Rubber pneumatic tires for passenger cars 896 5.0 853690 Other electrical apparatus for electrical circuits 207 2.9

7 850140 Other AC motors, single-phase 713 4.0 854239 Other integrated circuits 185 2.6

8 382490 Correction fluid and tape for retail 601 3.4 401110 Rubber pneumatic tires for passenger cars 180 2.5

9 853890 Parts for electrical switching apparatus 503 2.8 701400 Signalling glassware and optical elements of glass 175 2.4

10 853400 Printed circuits 440 2.5 711049 Iridium, osmium & ruthenium in semi-manufactured forms 136 1.9


Ran



1 870324 Passenger cars, other vehicles (cylinder capacity: over 3000cc) 42,959 31.9 870410 Dumpers 27,357 51.9

2 842952 Mechanical shovels, etc. with a 360°revolving super-structure 31,121 23.1 842952 Mechanical shovels, etc. with a 360°revolving super-structure 6,965 13.2

3 870410 Dumpers 23,486 17.4 870324 Passenger cars, other vehicles (cylinder capacity: over 3000cc) 5,762 10.9

4 840690 Parts of steam and vapour turbines 4,844 3.6 840690 Parts of steam and vapour turbines 2,793 5.3

5 842951 Front end shovel loaders 4,506 3.3 854460 Insulated electric conductors (voltage: over 1,000v) 1,977 3.7

6 850164 AC generators (alternators) (output: over 750Kva) 4,199 3.1 842951 Front end shovel loaders 1,483 2.8

7 840681 Other steam and vapour turbines (output: over 40MW) 4,175 3.1 854470 Optical fibre cables 616 1.2

8 850300 Parts for electric motors and generators 2,298 1.7 843149 Parts of cranes 483 0.9

9 841182 Other gas turbines (output: over 5,000kw) 1,803 1.3 840991 Parts of spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines 443 0.8

10 382490 Correction fluid and tape for retail 1,427 1.1 392010 Plates, foils, strips of polymers of ethylene, etc. 322 0.6


Ran


－18－

【Analysis Point 3】～ Significant decreases and rapid recovery in exports and changes in the composition of export items after the latest earthquake were similar to those seen at Kobe Port after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake ～【Characteristics】

・The export value at Kobe Port declined to 153.3 billion yen (down by 50.8% from the same month of the previous year) in January 1995, during which the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake occurred, and further dropped to 73.7 billion yen (down by 79.5% (id.)) in February. However, exports gradually recovered from March of the same year. ・Gradual recovery in exports observed at Sendai-Shiogama and Hitachi after the latest earthquake has been similar to the trends in exports at Kobe Port after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. ・After the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, Kobe Port experienced a significant decline in exports of electrical machinery-related items, in particular.

Fig. II-3-13 Changes in Export Values at Kobe Port Before and After the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake

Source: Prepared based on the “Trade Statistics of Japan” (MOF) (hereinafter the same)

Table II-3-11 Composition of Export Items at Kobe Port Before and After the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake


1 8708 Parts and accessories for motor vehicles 56,924 2.9 8711 Motorcycles, etc. 31,804 3.9

2 5407 Woven fabrics of synthetic filament yarn 50,549 2.6 8429 Self-propelled bulldozers, angledozers, etc. 29,413 3.6

3 8521 Video recording or reproducing apparatus 49,718 2.5 8542 Integrated circuits 29,405 3.6

4 8479 Machines having individual functions 38,664 2.0 8407 Spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines 26,747 3.3

5 8540 Thermionic, cold cathode and photocathode tubes 38,635 2.0 8708 Parts and accessories for motor vehicles 24,400 3.0

6 8407 Spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines 36,554 1.9 5407 Woven fabrics of synthetic filament yarn 17,434 2.1

7 8429 Self-propelled bulldozers, angledozers, etc. 34,951 1.8 8479 Machines having individual functions 16,581 2.0

8 8525 Television cameras and transmission apparatus for radio-telephony, etc. 34,140 1.7 8703 Passenger cars and other vehicles 12,478 1.5

9 8536 Apparatus for electrical circuits, etc. 31,443 1.6 8540 Thermionic, cold cathode and photocathode tubes 12,330 1.5

10 8482 Ball or roller bearings 30,403 1.6 8482 Ball or roller bearings 11,106 1.4

Total of all items 1,956,197 100.0 Total of all items 818,143 100.0

Ran

k Before the earthquake (Feb. to Jun. 1994) After the earthquake (Feb. to Jun. 1995)

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【Analysis Point 4】～ The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake accelerated a decline of Kobe Port’s share among the nationwide export value and changed its export structure ～【Characteristics】

・The share that Kobe Port accounted for among the nationwide export value was around 12% before the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. The earthquake accelerated the decline and the share was 7.6% as of 2010. ・By item, export of “video recording or reproducing apparatus” has not recovered even on a mid-term basis.

・After the Great East Japan Earthquake, changes in the composition of export items were also observed at some ports. We should keep an eye on the future trends to ascertain whether the former composition will be restored in the end or exports of some items may fail to recover to the pre-quake level even on a mid-term basis, as in the preceding case seen at Kobe Port.

Fig. II-3-14 Changes in Export Values at Kobe Port and Its Shares

Fig. II-3-15 Export Trends of Items that were Top-ranked at Kobe Port Before the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (1994=100)

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the third quarter of 2011 analysis of all industrial …. trends of all industrial activities (1)...

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