the technical take - september 16, 2013

7/29/2019 The Technical Take - September 16, 2013

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Report prepared by:

Ryan Lewenza, CFA. CMT

Inside

Technical Commentary...................... 2

Technical Almanac Trading Ideas ... 10

Relative Strength Analysis .............. 13

Sentiment Indicators ........................ 17

Overbought/Oversold Stocks .......... 18

Market Statistics .............................. 19

This Document is for distribution to Canadian

clients only.

Please refer to Appendix A of this report for

important disclosure information.

Volume 5 Highlights

Since bouncing off its 50-day moving average (MA) in early August

the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) is up over 3% and fo

the first time in over a year, is outperforming the S&P 500 Index

(S&P 500). However, it is now once again trading at the key

technical resistance level of 12,900, which has contained the

S&P/TSX over 2013. Because the S&P/TSX remains range-boundwe expect the S&P/TSX to be capped at 12,900 in the near-term

and see it heading lower in the September/October period, which

has historically been a weak period for the equity markets.

The REIT sector had a rough summer, with the S&P/TSX Capped

REIT Index down roughly 20% since May. The weakness in the

sector can largely be attributed to the recent rise in government

bond yields. Given our view that government bond yields should be

nearing their peak on an intermediate basis, the recent pressure on

REITs should soon abate.

With the S&P 500 approaching technical resistance and a nearoverbought condition, we expect the S&P 500 to struggle in thecoming days and see the potential for some near-term profit taking

resulting in a pullback to its uptrend, currently intersecting at 1,650.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to announce a tapering

of asset purchases following its September 17-18 meeting, and theS&P 500 near technical resistance (and all-time highs), we believe

the S&P 500 is approaching an important inflection point, with the

market reaction in the coming days, possibly providing a window

into the next few quarters.

The S&P 500 Industrials Index remains in a clear, long-term upward

channel but the sector is quickly approaching short-term technica

resistance and is nearing an overbought condition, which could lead

to some near-term profit taking. However, we would look to increase

exposure to the industrials sector on weakness, as its technica

profile remains bullish in our view.

In this weeks report we highlight Bank of America Corp. (BAC-N

and Dundee REIT (D.UN-T) as attractive buy candidates and

recommend investors trim/sell Conagra Inc. (CAG-N), Campbel

Soup Co. (CPB-N) and Kellogg Co. (K-N).

September 16, 2013


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The Technical Take September 16, 2013

Page 2

Technical Commentary

S&P/TSX Composite Index

Since bouncing off its 50-day moving average (MA) in early August, the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) is

up over 3% and for the first time in over a year, is outperforming the S&P 500 Index (lower panel). However, it is

now once again trading at the key technical resistance level of 12,900, which has contained the S&P/TSX over

2013.

The recent strength in the S&P/TSX was in large part driven by strength of the financials sector, which represents35% of the S&P/TSX. Following strong Q3/13 earnings results, the financials sector has gone on to make new

highs, outperforming the broader market.

However, with the financials sector near overbought technically, and the S&P/TSX at key resistance, we expect the

S&P/TSX to rollover and decline to its support around 12,550, which is the convergence of the 50- and 200-day

MAs. A break below this level would likely lead to a deeper correction, with the S&P/TSX possibly trading down to

the bottom of its year-long range of 11,900.

Conversely, if the S&P/TSX were to break above the key 12,900 resistance level, we would likely re-evaluate our

near-term cautious view.

Overall, because the S&P/TSX remains range-bound, we expect the S&P/TSX to be capped at 12,900 in the near-

term and see it heading lower in the September/October period, which has historically been a weak period for the

equity markets.


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Canadian Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at September 11, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

The telecommunications sector came back to life after Verizon Communications Inc. announced that it would not be

entering the Canadian marketplace, moving on to post the strongest sector returns over the last two weeks.

As already discussed, the financials sector remains strong, hovering near the top of our sector rankings over the

last three weeks. The materials sector fell to the bottom of our sector rankings over the last two weeks, following strong gains made

in August. As we predicted in the Weekly Insights report dated August 23, 2013, the strength in August was likely

just an oversold bounce, with technicals remaining weak for the sector.

Market Condition:

All sectors are neutrally ranked, with Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings between 30 and 70.

Other:

With the recent strength in the S&P/TSX, the utilities sector is the only sector trading below its 50-day MA

The telecommunications, utilities and materials sectors remain below their 200-day MAs, which is one reason why

we suggest an underweight in these sectors within portfolios.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX 1094.74 1051.06 Uptrend 1106.66 Downtrend 62.93 Neutral 1 1 7 3 9 6

S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX 1703.23 1699.74 Uptrend 1639.79 Uptrend 55.26 Neutral 2 9 5 7 8 5

S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX 1911.19 1861.73 Uptrend 1811.52 Uptrend 63.82 Neutral 3 4 3 6 6 8S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX 1372.87 1343.63 Uptrend 1199.04 Uptrend 55.70 Neutral 4 10 6 8 4 4

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 12804.04 12572.03 Uptrend 12516.89 Uptrend 58.94 Neutral 5 6 4 4 5 9

S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX 2770.51 2738.44 Uptrend 2704.06 Uptrend 61.34 Neutral 6 2 9 5 10 3

S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX 1704.95 1 780.03 Downtrend 1885.36 Downtrend 41.65 Neutral 7 5 11 10 11 10

S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX 2513.62 2493.25 Uptrend 2274.46 Uptrend 60.03 Neutral 8 3 10 11 7 7

S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX 1393.49 1345.96 Uptrend 1130.27 Uptrend 53.25 Neutral 9 7 8 9 2 1

S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX 136.03 130.30 Uptrend 123.95 Uptrend 56.04 Neutral 10 8 2 2 3 2

S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX 2190.42 2 163.11 Uptrend 2502.55 Downtrend 48.01 Neutral 11 11 1 1 1 11

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index

The REIT sector had a rough summer, with the S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index down roughly 20% since May.

The weakness in the sector can largely be attributed to the recent rise in government bond yields.

As seen in the chart above, the peak of the REIT sector in May was concurrent with the breakout and rapid rise in

the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which moved up nearly 130 bps over this period.

Given our view that government bond yields should be nearing their peak on an intermediate basis (longer term, we

see rates moving higher), the recent pressure on REITs should soon abate. Additionally, given how oversold the

REIT space is, we could see a decent countertrend rally in the coming weeks.

If this thesis plays out, we would focus on names such as Dundee REIT (D.UN), H&R REIT (HR.UN) and RioCan

REIT (REI.UN).


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S&P 500 Index

In the Weekly Insights report dated August 23, 2013, we stated that with the S&P 500 approaching uptrendsupport at 1,630 and momentum near oversold levels, that we see the potential for a trading bounce over the nexweek or so.

This short-term call has materialized and now, we note that the S&P 500 is quickly approaching its next technicaresistance around 1,700.

Given recent market strength, the S&P 500 is nearing an overbought condition, with an RSI reading of 62.23 (above70 indicates overbought).

With the S&P 500 approaching technical resistance and a near overbought condition, we expect the S&P 500 tostruggle in the coming days and see the potential for some near-term profit taking, resulting in a pullback to itsuptrend, currently intersecting at 1,650.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) likely to announce a tapering of asset purchases following its September 17-18 meeting, and the S&P 500 near technical resistance (and all-time highs), we believe the S&P 500 is approachingan important inflection point, with the market reaction in the coming days, possibly providing a window into the nextfew quarters.

We remain bullish on U.S. equities longer term as: 1) the S&P 500 remains in a clear, long-term uptrend and isabove its rising 50- and 200-week MAs; 2) the Advance/Decline Line for the S&P 500 continues to make new highsshowing strong market participation; 3) the S&P 500 has broken and remained above its previous resistance andall-time highs of 1,575; and 4) sector performance continues to indicate a strong market, with the cyclical sectors(consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials) outperforming the broader market.


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U.S. Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at September 11, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

Last week was a clear risk on week with the financials, industrials, consumer discretionary and information

technology sectors outperforming the broad market. The health care sector was the top-performing sector last week, and continues its trend of outperformance versus

the broad market.

With the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a two and a half year high of 3% last week, the interest sensitive consumer

staples, utilities and telecommunications sectors underperformed the broad market last week.

Market Condition:

All sectors are neutrally ranked, with RSI readings between 30 and 70.

Other: The utilities and telecommunications sectors remain below their 50- and 200-day MAs.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX 589.98 578.13 Uptrend 532.88 Uptrend 62.15 Neutral 1 4 4 8 4 9

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX 272.35 271.74 Uptrend 249.66 Uptrend 57.77 Neutral 2 11 10 5 10 6

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX 397.86 387.34 Uptrend 362.10 Uptrend 64.56 Neutral 3 10 8 2 9 1S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX 474.95 466.90 Uptrend 426.13 Uptrend 60.12 Neutral 4 5 3 10 7 2

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX 519.88 510.09 Uptrend 487.87 Uptrend 63.73 Neutral 5 9 2 1 3 3

S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX 265.94 254.94 Uptrend 247.32 Uptrend 66.61 Neutral 6 7 1 3 1 4

S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX 612.87 601.10 Uptrend 577.44 Uptrend 60.39 Neutral 7 1 6 4 5 10

S&P 500 INDEX 1687.15 1668.23 Uptrend 1570.80 Uptrend 60.47 Neutral 8 8 5 6 6 5

S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX 413.92 419.72 Downtrend 403.12 Uptrend 46.00 Neutral 9 6 11 9 2 7

S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX 186.39 193.81 Downtrend 191.22 Downtrend 43.33 Neutral 10 3 7 11 8 8

S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX 150.46 155.29 Downtrend 155.31 Downtrend 44.33 Neutral 11 2 9 7 11 11

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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U.S. S&P 500 Industrials Index

The S&P 500 Industrials Index remains in a clear, long-term upward channel, being supported by rising 50- and

200- day MAs.

Additionally, relative strength continues to improve, with the industrials sector recently making a new relative high.

The sector is approaching its short-term technical resistance and is nearing an overbought condition, which could

lead to some near-term profit taking.

However, we would look to increase exposure to the industrials sector on weakness, as its technical profile remains

bullish in our view.


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Intermarket Picture

U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index recently rallied off its short-term support around 80.50, up to resistance o

82.50, which is the convergence of the 50- and 100-day MAs. The U.S. Dollar Index remains range-bound between 80.50

and 84.50 but we expect a stronger U.S. dollar in the months ahead, given our belief that the Fed will soon begin to taper

its asset purchases, which should be dollar bullish.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continues to move higher, recently hitting our technica

target of 3%. With the recent move, the 10-year yield broke its 7-year downtrend (green circle). Next technical resistance

comes in at 3.25%, then 3.75%. While the upside break in yields is technically significant in the long term, we continue to

expect an upside cap in yields of 3.0% to 3.25% on an intermediate basis, given our expectations for continued anemic

economic growth and benign inflationary pressures. For the near term, we note that yields remain technically overbought

while sentiment around government bonds remains heavily bearish. Given these extreme readings, we see the potentia

for a countertrend rally in bond prices, and lower yields in the coming weeks.


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Gold Following a significant sell-off in June, gold was technically oversold. With gold entering its strong seasonal period

in September, it was set up for an oversold bounce. Since the bottom in July at US$1,180/oz, gold has traded in a short-

term upward channel, but more recently found technical resistance around the US$1,430/oz level, which was resistance in

the May June period. Gold is now pulling back to its lower channel line, and with momentum rolling over (lower panel),

we believe gold prices could pull back further, into a range of US$1,328/oz (50-day MA) to US$1,270/oz (August lows)

With our expectations of: 1) a Fed taper in the coming months, which could be dollar bullish and in turn put pressure on

gold prices; 2) gold prices nearing the end of their strong seasonal period; and 3) a delay of a potential military strike in

Syria, we continue to believe upside is limited in the near term and expect gold prices to pull back in the coming weeks.

On an intermediate basis, we see gold trading in a range between US$1,180/oz and US$1,480/oz.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil The recent escalation of geopolitical issues in the Middle East has put a bid under

oil prices, and as a corollary, has led to the highest net long position in WTI oil futures positions seen for some time. With

the U.S. stepping back from a potential military strike on Syria, and our belief that the recent rally in oil prices is more

technical than fundamental, we continue to expect a pullback in WTI oil prices, possibly back to the US$98 to

US$100/barrel range. Additionally, we note that natural gas prices have recently started to outperform oil prices (lower

panel), as the strong seasonal period for natural gas approaches. We prefer natural gas to oil in the coming fall months.


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Technical Almanac Trading Ideas

Bank of America Corp. (BAC-N) Published September 9, 2013

Over the last year BAC has been trading in a solid uptrend and above its rising 200-day moving average (MA)BACs relative trends have also been strong, and the stock has been outperforming the broader market over theperiod.

On a near-term basis the stock has formed a flag pattern which is continuation pattern, and is close to registering amomentum buy signal (middle panel).

Given BACs strong price and relative technical trends, and near-term potential buy signals, we believe additionaupside is possible. We would employ a stop-loss just below the 200-day MA at $12.50.


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Dundee REIT (D.UN-T) Published September 11, 2013

2013 has been challenging for Dundee REITs share price, with the stock down 22% year-to-date. The weakness inD.UN can largely be attributed to the recent rise in government bond yields. This can clearly be seen in the chartwith D.UN peaking in May, concurrent with the rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Given our view that the rise ingovernment bond yields may be nearing its end (on an intermediate-term basis), we believe D.UN could experiencean oversold bounce soon.

Supporting this thesis we note that D.UN recently broke its short-term downtrend (green circle), and that there is apositive momentum divergence, with the MACD indicator putting in a higher low (lower panel).

Given the recent upside trend break, the positive momentum divergence, and our view that government bond yieldscould be near a peak on an intermediate basis, we believe D.UN is set up for a short-term rally.


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Conagra Inc. (CAG-N) Published September 13, 2013

We are following up on our May 13, 2013 recommendation to trim/sell Conagra Inc. after CAG was captured as atechnical breakdown this week in our model*.

We recommended investors trim/sell CAG if it fell below support of $34.50. As displayed in the chart, this occurredshortly after our recommendation. Although the stock made a new high of $37 in early August, it has been weak

since then and has broken through its uptrend and 200-day moving average on heavy volume. CAG is now technically oversold with a Relative Strength Index reading of 22.13 (below 30 indicates oversold). As

such, the stock could experience an oversold bounce, but given the technical breakdown we recommend investorsexit the position on any strength.

It is interesting to note that other U.S. food stocks have also been weak. Campbell Soup Co. (CPB-N) and KelloggCo. (K-N) have broken down and also appear in our screen this week. We recommend investors trim/sell thesepositions on any strength, given their deteriorating technical trends.

*NOTE: Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Relative Strength Analysis

S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at September 13, 2013

0.30

0.31

0.32

Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.227

0.259

0.290

Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.265

0.276

0.288


S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.30

0.33

0.37


S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.23

0.24


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.17

0.20


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.16

0.16


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.37

0.38


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.41

0.46


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

Cyclicals13MAR13 - 13SEP1313SEP10 - 13SEP13

The informat ion

technology bro ke it

intermediate

downt rend and is

t rading range-boun

in the sho rt - term.

The industr ia ls long

term downtrend has

recent ly been broke

due to i t s improv ing

short - term trends.

The consumer

discret ionary secto

remains in a long-

and sh ort - term

relat ive up trend.

The mater ials secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive

downt rend.

Range-boun d on a

short - term basis.

The energy sectorremains in a long-

term relat ive

downt rend.

We prefer the

Canadian energy

sector o ver the U.S


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Page 14


0.23

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.14

0.16

0.18


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.28

0.32

0.37


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.12


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.13

0.16


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.24

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.16

0.16

0.17


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.33

0.35

0.36


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.11


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.12

0.14


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

13SEP10 - 13SEP13 13MAR13 - 13SEP13

Defensives

The consumer

staples sector is

t rading range-bou

on a long-term bas

The sectors short

term trend is

negat ive.

The f inancial sect

in a lon g-term

uptrend.

Short - term u ptren

under pressure.

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

mak ing new highs

2013.

The telecom secto

recent ly made new

long-term relat ive

lows.

The ut i l i t ies secto

mak ing new long-

term relat ive lows


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Page 15

S&P/TSX Composite


0.01

0.01

0.01


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.071

0.092

0.113


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.090

0.101

0.112


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.01

0.01

0.02


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.14

0.14


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.10

0.12

0.14


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.25

0.34


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.19

0.22


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.22

0.23


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.23

0.25


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

Cyclicals13MAR13 - 13SEP1313MAR13 - 13SEP13

The consumer

discret ionary sec

remains in a long

and sh ort - term

relative up trend.

The informat ion

technology secto

longer- term trend

improv ing.

The sectors shorterm trend remain

volat i le.

The industr ia l

sectors long-term

trend is construct

but is stal l ing on

short - term basis.

The mater ials sec

trend is weak on a

long- and s hort - te

basis. Underweig

sector within

port fol ios.

The energy secto

broke its lon g-term

downt rend in Jun

Shor t-term relat iv

t rends are impro v

for the sector .


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Page 16

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at Septerber 13, 2013

0.12

0.17

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.12

0.14

0.15


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.03

0.08

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.06

0.08

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.18


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.17

0.19

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.14

0.15

0.15


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.08

0.10

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.08

0.09

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.16


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

13MAR13 - 13SEP13 13MAR13 - 13SEP13

Defensive

The consumer

staples sectors loand sh ort - term

relat ive trends are

posit ive.

The ut i l i t ies secto

cont inues to mak

new relat ive lows

The health care

sector remains in

st rong lon g- and

short - term uptren

The telecom secto

recent ly broke its

long-term relative

uptrend. The sect

has exper ienced a

boun ce in recent

weeks.

The f inancial sect

remains in a long

term relat ive uptr


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Sentiment Indicators


Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago14.18 12.31 16.41 0.87 1.11 1.00

Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago

Bulls 45.52 39.50 29.47 67 73 71

Bears 24.58 26.65 38.95

Bulls - Bears 20.94 12.85 -9.48

VIX CBOE Put/Call

% of Stocks Above

200-day MA

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

AAII Investor Sentiment: Bulls Minus Bears

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


NYSE % of Stocks Above 200-day MA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Volatility (VIX) Index

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5


CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio 5-Day MA


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Overbought/Oversold Stocks

S&P 500


S&P/TSX Composite


Most Overbought Most OversoldName RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

MOLEX INC 85.10 INTEGRYS ENERGY GROUP INC 21.24

AUTONATION INC 77.36 CONAGRA FOODS INC 21.92

MCKESSON CORP 76.56 SCANA CORP 22.95

NETAPP INC 76.37 CAMPBELL SOUP CO 23.74

FMC CORP 75.44 PEPCO HOLDINGS INC 26.09

AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC 75.02 H&R BLOCK INC 26.20

GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO 75.01 KELLOGG CO 28.91

ALTERA CORP 74.91 INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC 29.83

EOG RESOURCES INC 74.90 P G & E CORP 30.03

CUMMINS INC 74.75 HEWLETT-PACKARD CO 30.40

E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP 74.62 CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC 30.69

VIACOM INC-CLASS B 74.42 TESORO CORP 30.87

ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC 73.78 SOUTHERN CO/THE 31.37

NVIDIA CORP 73.74 WISCONSIN ENERGY CORP 31.61

MASTERCARD INC-CLASS A 73.68 ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO-CL A 31.82

Most Overbought Most Oversold

Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA 78.83 REITMANS (CANADA) LTD-A 19.61

HOME CAPITAL GROUP INC 75.74 EMERA INC 23.80

WESTSHORE TERMINALS INVESTME 73.17 NIKO RESOURCES LTD 25.65

GENIVAR INC 72.67 BELL ALIANT INC 26.03

TRANSCONTINENTAL INC-CL A 71.57 DUNDEE CORP -CL A 26.36

MEG ENERGY CORP 70.75 ARGONAUT GOLD INC 28.19

SAVANNA ENERGY SERVICES CORP 70.63 AURICO GOLD INC 29.02

TRINIDAD DRILLING LTD 69.75 EMPIRE CO LTD 'A' 30.02

BONTERRA ENERGY CORP 69.63 PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP 31.56

SUNCOR ENERGY INC 68.89 ELDORADO GOLD CORP 32.15

AECON GROUP INC 68.87 ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES 32.66

WESTJET AIRLINES LTD 67.77 RIO ALTO MINING LTD 32.85PASON SYSTEMS INC 67.49 GOLDCORP INC 34.25

CML HEALTHCARE INC 67.29 AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD 34.59

RUSSEL METALS INC 67.19 MANITOBA TELECOM SVCS INC 34.63


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Page 19

Market Statistics


Region Index Last 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

U.S. S&P 500 1683.42 1.84 -0.50 3.01 18.20 15.46 14.54 6.13

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15300.64 2.94 -0.58 1.22 17.22 13.45 13.36 6.10

Dow Jones Transportation 6516.44 2.07 0.79 2.55 22.54 25.00 13.50 5.09Dow Jones Utilities 472.64 0.82 -4.02 -1.60 5.33 0.41 6.41 0.78

Nasdaq Composite 3715.97 1.48 0.80 7.80 23.00 17.69 17.56 10.43

Russell 2000 1048.48 2.14 -0.04 6.25 23.81 22.83 17.26 7.86

Russell 1000 Value 852.63 1.87 -1.08 2.50 19.34 18.35 13.91 4.91

Russell 1000 Growth 779.80 2.04 0.65 4.89 18.53 15.00 16.06 8.20

Canada S&P/TSX Composite 12701.05 -0.76 0.65 3.64 2.33 2.94 1.55 -0.07

S&P/TSX 60 729.98 -0.93 1.03 3.85 2.45 3.23 1.14 -0.90

S&P/TSX Smallcap 570.57 -1.14 0.37 4.74 -2.34 -6.20 -2.95 -0.01

S&P/TSX Venture 940.39 -1.78 1.38 0.84 -23.20 -28.01 -16.41 -10.22

International DAX 8494.00 2.66 0.95 4.94 11.60 16.21 10.70 6.38FTSE 100 6588.98 0.34 -0.64 4.20 11.39 12.88 5.68 3.93

Nikkei 225 14387.27 3.92 3.88 15.74 38.57 60.14 15.61 3.35

Hang Seng 22953.72 1.30 1.66 9.71 1.14 14.30 1.90 3.44

Shanghai 2255.60 4.50 6.18 4.09 -1.45 5.96 -5.95 1.46

MSCI World 1535.73 2.03 0.38 4.69 14.53 15.30 9.91 3.62

MSCI EAFE 1788.95 2.65 1.42 6.78 11.61 16.91 5.53 0.97

MSCI Emerging Markets 278.32 3.01 3.26 6.23 -0.69 6.63 n/a n/a

S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Discretionary 474.64 2.34 -0.18 6.26 26.17 26.58 22.75 14.20

Comsumer Staples 414.15 2.08 -2.37 -0.54 15.49 12.60 13.67 6.73

Energy 610.33 1.61 1.74 3.52 14.99 8.94 14.39 3.41

Financials 270.82 1.88 -1.36 1.89 22.59 25.00 10.78 -0.82Health care 589.57 1.91 0.38 5.25 27.58 28.44 19.71 9.58

Industrials 396.75 2.68 0.31 5.49 20.65 22.09 14.35 5.55

Information Technology 519.05 1.21 -0.49 2.81 11.85 3.18 13.82 9.00

Materials 263.39 2.49 1.46 4.64 11.38 10.88 9.52 2.57

Telecommunications 151.51 2.98 -1.35 -5.06 4.33 -3.74 9.13 3.55

Utilities 186.14 0.77 -4.23 -1.74 5.72 1.37 5.73 0.47

S&P/TSX Sectors Consumer Discretionary 1364.32 0.67 -0.95 11.71 28.63 34.10 10.60 6.06

Comsumer Staples 2470.87 -0.37 -1.47 7.24 17.20 26.00 16.26 10.83

Energy 2771.08 -0.06 2.26 4.22 4.52 0.54 0.61 -3.05

Financials 1900.88 -0.20 1.47 6.53 8.34 14.23 5.56 2.67

Health care 1383.19 -2.05 -4.78 12.69 52.05 54.75 42.04 33.62Industrials 1704.81 1.05 0.36 2.46 14.77 19.51 11.72 6.54

Information Technology 135.19 -0.41 -2.08 0.46 28.08 37.01 -10.38 -18.41

Materials 2128.73 -4.78 -2.37 -4.39 -28.52 -32.14 -14.70 -5.35

Telecommunications 1071.43 -0.59 5.11 -3.58 1.02 3.87 9.38 3.65

Utilities 1692.15 -1.10 -4.29 -7.25 -11.98 -10.53 -1.99 -1.36


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Appendix A Important Disclosures

General Research Disclaimer

The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or

complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any

investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each

individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance.

This document does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax

advisor. All opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its

affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.

TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including

options, futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons

or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.

Technical Research Disclaimer

The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamenta

research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker.

The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely

direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.

Research Report Dissemination PolicyTD Waterhouse Canada Inc. makes its research products available in electronic format. These research products are posted to our

proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may

distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by email, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to

any other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior written consent.

Analyst Certification

The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and

technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the

securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,

related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Conflicts of Interest

The Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this

report. As with most other employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the

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Corporate Disclosure

TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (Member Canadian Investor Protection

Fund), TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and

TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company).

The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion

Bank.

Trade-mark Disclosures

Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its

subsidiaries. All rights reserved.

TD Securities is the trade name which TD Securities Inc. and TD Securities (USA) LLC. jointly use to market their institutional equity

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TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities

Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

/The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of the Toronto-Dominion Bank or a wholly-owned subsidiary, in

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the technical take - september 16, 2013

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