the state of the recovery - loudounchamber.org fileloudoun county chamber of commerceloudoun county...

Loudoun County Chamber of CommerceLoudoun County Chamber of CommerceThe 2010 Policymaker Series

The State of the Recovery

Stephen S. Fuller, PhDStephen S. Fuller, PhDDirector, Center for Regional Analysis

School of Public PolicyGeorge Mason UniversityGeorge Mason University

August 11, 2010

U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012

% Forecast > > > > > > > >

4

6

8%

0

2

4

-4

-2

-8

-6

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Global Insight

U.S. Coincident and Leading IndicesN 2006 J 2010

112.0

Nov 2006 – Jun 2010RECESSION > > > >

106 0

108.0

110.0L.I.

102.0

104.0

106.0

98.0

100.0 C.I.96.0

Nov

-06

Jan-

07M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep

-07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08M

ar-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09M

ar-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

l-09

Sep

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0

N J M M S N J M M S N J M M S N J M M

ISM Manufacturing and N M f t i I diNon-Manufacturing Indices

70

6065

Mfg

455055 Non-Mfg

354045

41.2

Apr/May 09

3035

Initial Unemployment Claims000

650700000s

(4-week moving average)

500550600

400450500

459

250300350

200250

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USg yTHOUSANDS

1000

3000July 10 =- 16

3000

-1000

-5000

-3000

-7000

Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 December 2009December 2007 – December 2009

(000s) Total - 8,363,000Ranked by Size in 2010

-1,563791

35

Prof. & Bus. SvcsEduc & Health SvcsState & Local Govt

(000s)

-2,192-544

-1,206

ManufacturingLeisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

200-474

-1,795-570

Other ServicesWlse Trade

ConstructionFinancial

-37569

-377-200

InformationFederal Govt.Transp. & Util.

Other Services

375

-2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000

Information

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 July 2010December 2009 – July 2010

(000s) Total 654,000Ranked by Size in 2010

186208

-169

Prof. & Bus. SvcsEduc & Health SvcsState & Local Govt

183106

74

ManufacturingLeisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

2522

-123-84

Other ServicesWlse Trade

ConstructionFinancial

-36193

1325

InformationFederal Govt.Transp. & Util.

Other Services

36

-200 -100 0 100 200 300

Information

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Unemployment Rate

11

%

89

109.5 %

GI Fcst

678 G cs

10 9.611 9.012 8.113 7 4

345

13 7.414 6.915 6.5

3

Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

The Washington EconomyThe Washington Economy

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index

4.0%

Month-Over-Year Percent Change

2.0%

3.0%

0.0%

1.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

-4 0%

-3.0%

4.0%

Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area

160Thousands

g1991 - 2009

6175

92117

71 6380

120

36 3825

4461

41

10

56 6350

2312.90

40

80Avg. = 37,000

-53

-8

-52 9-40

0

-53 -52.9-80

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Jun 09 Jun 10Job Change Jun 09 – Jun 10

80100

(000s)

20406080

Washington + 15,000

40-20

020

-80-60-40

-100


Annual Job ChangegWashington MSA

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

406080

2008 2009 2010

02040

-60-40-20

-100-80-60

2 2 2 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M2002

2004

2006

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May


Annual Job ChangegNorthern Virginia

000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year

405060

2008 2009 2010

10203040

20-10

010

-40-30-20

2 2 2 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M2002

2004

2006

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May


Job Change by SectorOct 2008 Mar 2010Oct 2008 – Mar 2010

Washington MSA(000s) Total - 50,200

1421

-8

Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s)

-3-6

-4

Leisure & Hosp.Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

9-9

0-32

InformationFinancial

Other ServicesConstruction

-2-4

-8-9

Transp & UtilWlse Trade

ManufacturingInformation

2

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.


Job Change by SectorJan 2010 June 2010Jan 2010 – June 2010

Washington MSA(000s) Total 40,400

-216

7



230

-10


State & Local Govt

1-1

45



01

-2-1



0

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.


Job Change by SectorJune 2009 June 2010June 2009 – June 2010

Washington MSA(000s) Total 15,000

222

-2



411

-9


State & Local Govt

5-4

3-3



00

-3-5



0

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.


Job Change by SectorJune 2009 June 2010June 2009 – June 2010

Northern Virginia(000s) Total 12,400

47

2



79

-5


State & Local Govt

4-1

4-6



-1-1

-2-4



1

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

Transp. & Util.


Unemployment Rate

11

%

89

10 U.S. 9.6

5678

Washington6.4

5 3

2345 5.3

Northern Virginia

2

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Ratey p y

June 2010

1416%

101214

US9 6

68

9.6

6.4

024

0

Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

Housing Market Trends

Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homesg

Month-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA%

100

120

140Jan-May, 2006 >100 %

60

80

100

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

July =- 3.5%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per SalegJuly Each Year

20

25

PG

10

15PG

PW

5

10 LDN

FFXARL

DCMONT

0


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeW hi t MSAWashington MSA

All Housing Types%

A l Ch A l Ch b M th

2022

20

30 Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

6

111414

2 2 2 2 1 1

64

0 0 03

96 6

46 5 4

7

0

10

0 0 -2

-9-5

-12-111313

-10-9-7

-4

-10

0

12 -13-13-16-17

-23

-18

-23-25-24

-26

-20-18

-14

-30

-20

30


Average Sales Price Percent ChangeN th Vi i iNorthern Virginia

All Housing Types%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

1414

2223

1519

16171612

20

30Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2007 2008 2009 2010

510

1 1

1 1 1

1 2 1

-1

95

11 12119

0

10

-1-1-3-1-2 -3-5-4

-15-12

-18-17-1920 -19

-12-8

-2-1

-20

-10

-19-20-22-25

-32-28-29-30

-28-28

-2219

-40

-30

40


New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate

70

Washington Metro, All Housing Types%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

50

60

70

40

50

20

30

0

10

03 05 eb pr un ug ct ec eb pr un ug ct ec eb pr un ug ct ec eb pr un ug ct ec eb

200

200 Fe Ap Ju Au Oc

De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc

De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc

De Fe Ap Ju Au Oc

De Fe

Source: Hanley Wood

Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011p

Metro Area1200

1000

600

800

200

400

0

200

Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011p

Northern Virginia700

500

600

300

400

100

200

300

0

100

Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014Washington Area and Sub-state Portions

(A l % Ch )(Annual % Change)

7%

456

MSANV

234

DCSMMSA

-101

-2-1

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change bySub state Region (000s)Sub-state Region (000s)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

D.C.D.C. 5.35.3 10.1 10.1 --0.70.7 6.26.2 7.27.2 6.76.7 7.27.2 7.37.3

Sub. MDSub. MD 4.84.8 --1.41.4 --26.726.7 9.39.3 9.79.7 11.111.1 13.313.3 14.714.7

No. VANo. VA 13.2 4.4 -24.5 16.7 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.9

REGION 23 323 3 12 912 9 51 951 9 32 232 2 37 337 3 44 344 3 48 848 8 51 951 9REGION 23.323.3 12.912.9 --51.951.9 32.232.2 37.337.3 44.344.3 48.848.8 51.951.9

Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

8%

GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015

4

6 Washington

0

2

4

U.S.

-2

0

-4

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

www.cra-gmu.orgg g

the state of the recovery - loudounchamber.org fileloudoun county chamber of commerceloudoun county...

Documents