the smart city in 2030 - itu: committed to connecting the ... · •from 1978 to 2018, the...

The Smart City in 2030

First Workshop on Network 2030 New York CityOctober 2, 2018

Prof. Dr. Otthein HerzogCIUC - Tongji University, Shanghai, PRCUniversitaet Bremen, Germanyacatech – German National Academy of Science and Engineering

1. Global City Development

2. Planning Smart City Agglomerations for 2030

3. Smart City Agglomerations and ICT

4. Conclusions

Outline

The Smart City 2018 2030?

https://action.scholastic.com/issues/2017-18/120117/city-of-the-future.html

(3000ad/Shutterstock.com)

?

?

Worldwide City Growth 2000-2016

Source: UN Data with Datawrapper

Sphere of Influence – more than 50% of the Earth Population

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/majority-worlds-population-lives-circle/

Urbanization Development 1961-2002 –

Developed vs. Developing Countries

7

75% high

urbanization ate高城镇化率

1960-2012 comparison of urbanization rate in developed and developing countries（%）数据来源：联合国“世界城镇化展望：2007” Source: United Nations, 2008, p. 74-75

50% world average

urbanization rage

世界平均城镇化率

• From 1978 to 2018, the urbanization ratio of China has risen from 18% to

58%,

• At an urbanization growth of 40%, 640 million people, 46% of the population

have moved from rural areas to cities.

• The yearly average is a demographic growth of 16 million/year, but after

1995, the average demographic growth was more than 20 million

people/year, with a peak of 25 million in 2010.

• In 2018, the urban population of China has exceeded 800 million:

China has transformed itself from a country with 800 million peasants to a

country with 800 million urbanians.

• In 1978, 790 million peasants lived in rural areas in China and 170 million people

lived in cities.

• In 2018, 570 million peasants stay in countries and 810 million urbanians live in

cities.

• By 2025, the urban population in China will exceed 1 billion and by 2035,

1.15 billion with an urbanization ratio of 75% of 1.5 billion people

China’s Urbanization in Numbers

Urbanization Ratio城镇化率

China中国

19

78

20

18

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

经济城镇化率

城镇化率Urbanization

Economic Urbanization

Demographic Urbanization Ration vs.

Economic Urbanization Ratio

• For the foreseeable future, the main growth of city

agglomerations will take place in Asia and Africa

• The growth rates of European and American cities do not exert

enough political pressure to accelerate Smart City developments

• The enormous growth rates of Asian and African cities can only

be managed by planning for Smart City Agglomerations

• The main goals for planning African and Asian Smart City

Agglomerations for 2030 ff are

• Preserving the environment in spite of industrialization

• Improve the live of the citizens

Smart Cities Hypotheses


2. Smart City Agglomerations


4. Conclusions

1. Outline

GermanyYangtze River Delta

(YRD)

Population

2014

(million)

80.89 219.77

Shanghai: 24.26

Zhejiang: 55.08

Jiangsu: 79.60

Anhui: 60.83

Area (m2) 357,170 355,340

Shanghai: 6,340

Zhejiang:101,800

Jiangsu: 107,200

Anhui: 140,000

GDP 2014

(billion USD)3868 2439

Shanghai: 385

Zhejiang: 654

Jiangsu: 1060Anhui: 340

GDP per

capita 2014

(USD)

47,774 11,098

Shanghai: 15,870

Zhejiang: 11,874

Jiangsu: 13,317

Anhui: 5,590

1. Data Source: World Bank (for Germany), National Bureau of Statistics of China (for YRD)2. USD – CNY average exchange rate 2014 (6.14) is used for currency conversion of GDP of YRD.

1• The Yangtze River Delta covers three provinces and one major city.

The concurrent phenomena of the high-density concentration of socio-economic

elements and the divided governance become the bottleneck in the sustainable

development of this region.

• The traditional urbanization is coming to its end as it had brought with it serious

environment pollution, social conflicts, huge energy consumption and the exhaustion of

the demographic dividend:

• Pressure of non-sustainable land, water and energy use caused by high-intensity

and high-density development;

• Serious regional environment pollution;

• Urban sprawl, deteriorated traffic through congestion and the over-concentration in

megacities;

• Problematic issues relating to integrated urban-rural development and quality of life

and social risks

The Cost of the Rapid Urbanization of the Jangtze River Delta

3 Intelligent Cooperation Breakthrough Tasks+1 Data Platform

Intelligent Diagnosis

for Urban

Agglomerations

Intelligent Planning

for Urban

Agglomerations

Intelligent

Governance for Urban

Agglomerations

Intelligent Data Platforms for Urban Agglomerations

• The intelligent upgrade of the sustainable development of urban

agglomerations depends on the establishment of innovation dynamics

that involve multiple disciplines, multiple departments, and multiple

institutions.

• Join qualitative with quantitative approaches for sustainable Smart

Agglomeration planning and operation

• Sensors – Edge Computing - Data transport - Data platforms – Analytics




4. Conclusions

Outline

Planning concept

规划理念1

1

2

3

4

规划理念

理念1：共家园IDEAL 1: SHARED HOME

理念3：智生活IDEAL 3: INTELLIGENT LIFE

理念4：智生态IDEAL 4: INTELLIGENT ECOLOGY

理念2：智生产IDEAL 2: INTELLIGENT PRODUCTION

理念1：共家园

都市家园URBAN HOME

幸福邻里HAPPY NEIGHBOUR

马桥元素ELEMENTS OF MAQIAO

Creating a 15 minutes'

walking circle of life in

accordance with

working,living,relaxing,

teaching and medical care.

Building a happy and

harmonious living

environment is the ultimate

goal of a beautiful home.

Inheriting intangible cultural

resources and extending the

historical context of the

town's development.

Ideal 1: Shared Home

理念2：智生产

动态智配DYNAMIC INTELLIGENT CONFIGURATION

云端应用APPLICATION OF CLOUD

国际标准INTERNATIONAL STANDARD

Construction of a digital city

model with iCloud

technology and a City

Information Model.

Intelligent spatial

configuration guiding urban

development and evolution

in all fields by intelligent

monitoring and analysis.

Building Maqiao's

international AI standard and

creating the town's new

image in the future.

理念3：智生活

多元织网MULTISYSTEM

集聚场景GATHERING SCENES

生态社区ECOLOGICAL

communityActivate and utilize the

characteristic industries to

enhance the vitality of the

town culture.

Include arts and heritage and

display an innovative e-

culture.

Realize the full coverage of an

ecological community -

community harmony,

economic efficiency, and an

ecological virtuous circle

理念4：智生态

生态感知ECOLOGICAL

PERCEPTION

低碳集成LOW-CARBON INTEGRATION

智能安全INTELLIGENT SECURITY

Develop low-carbon smart

energy and manage the

town's energy in a demand-

oriented way.

An emergency plan system and

disaster relief space system

should be formed to cope with all

kinds of natural and man-made

disasters in the future.

Combine different ecological

paths such as rain, sewage,

reclaimed water, cold and heat

sources, electricity, gas and

garbage.

Design Concept

概念设计

PART 2

世界上第一个

地块尺度的

人工智能小镇建设推演规划Extrapolation planning at a parcel scale

2030 simulation result

AI Planning

Conceptual design

推演未来2

Finance

Citiz

en

s

Pla

nn

ers

Government

Building a Simulation Model

学医

休

2018 simulation start

世界上第一个

元空间尺度的

人工智能小镇建设推演规划Extrapolation planning at a unit space scale

2030

simulation

result

人工智能规划推演

Conceptual design

推演未来2

资本

镇民

规划

政府

构建博弈模型

学医

休

2018 Simulation start

元空间功能

人工智能规划推演

Conceptual design

推演未来2

资本

镇民

规划

政府

构建博弈模型

学医

休

Intelligent 3D Planning

Conceptual design

概念设计2

Ground Floor

Businesses

Upper Floors

Living

High-rise Buildings

Offices

世界上第一个”三维空间尺度”的人工智能小镇建设推演规划Extrapolation planning at a three-dimensional scale




4. Conclusions

Outline

Challenges for Smart City Agglomerations:

Activity Spheres

Energy and resource

infrastructure

Service and

attendance

Safety

Politics and

administration

Health

Education

Communication/IT

Human and

lifestyle

Urban Production

Nutrition

Environment

and climate

Transport and Logistics

Buildings and

living

Mobility

and traffic

City structure

Convergence of city

systems

Innovation Cycles of Urban Technologies

0 10 20 30 40 50 100

Source: acatech (after Drees & Sommer AG)

Urban technologies must be flexible, innovative, provident, and consistent

through long lifecycles

City structure

Temporal horizon in years

glazing (building)

composite insulation heat system (building)

thoroughfares

automobile

ICT

construction (building)

wastewater infrastructure

heating system (building)

Sp

ee

d o

f in

no

va

tio

ncycle

sCity structure

…interact with the environment adapting to it

autonomously (adaptive)

…manage even unexpected situations not taken into

account by the developer in a dynamic

environment (robust)

…anticipate the future on the basis of experience

knowledge

…mitigate effects of influences and possible states

(anticipatory)

…take into account individual user behavior

(user-friendly)

Intelligent Technical Objects…incorporate AI funtions for Smart City Agglomerations

enabling real-time efficient, flexible, and autonomous processes

that

© it‘s OWL Clustermanagement GmbH | 15.06.2015 30

Sensor-based Interfaces

Head-Mounted Displays und Augmented Reality

image source: IJMI, O.

Wenker

Smart factories as the basis for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

▪ Distributed, connected, self-configured, and intelligent systems

▪ Reduction of the complexity by modular production plants and

processes

▪ Fusion of the virtual and real world

Paradigm shift:

From centralized control to decentralized, autonomous systems

A higher degree of communication enables coordination!

Smart Factories, CyberPhysical Systems, and the IoTUrban Production

Smart Production: Wittenstein SE in Fellbach/Germany

Holistic process optimization

for the production of gear

wheels:

• Low-noise, low gas

emissions, minimal

resource consumption in

respect to noise,

emissions, waste, CO2

emissions, water and waste

water,

• Fully air-conditioned, but

35% energy savings per m2

compared with old building

• Integration into the

neighborhood with passive

energy homes

Truck Transport Figures (Germany)in

Transport of Goods

Source: Bundesamt für Güterverkehr, 2002

Room for Improvement in Truck Transport:

▪ in 2002: 23% of covered distances were deadhead

in 2012: 20.7% of 30 Billion km

▪ In 2002: only 67% truck utilisation by loading weight

(only 58% in long-distance traffic).

200

0202

0

201

0

Infrastructure growth

Traffic volume

▪ continuous traffic increase,

▪ limited infrastructure.

Source: National Academies of Science (2017). Guide to Deploying Clean Truck Freight

Strategies..DOI 10.17226/24957, p. 14

ICT-based Fuel and Emission Reduction of Trucks

• “The growth of the Internet of Things and the upcoming trend

toward more immersive and interactive user interfaces will flip

the center of data production and computing away from central

data centers to the digital edge.” 1

• “Build strategies for future applications that factor in latency,

location, federation and autonomy, as well as determining

placement at the edge, cloud and in between.” 1

• “Interconnection Bandwidth is expected to grow globally at a

48% CAGR* to 8,200+ Tbps of installed bandwidth.”2

• “The worldwide IP Traffic CAGR will be 26% by 2021” 2

• “The Global Interconnection Index is a valid measurement for

the growing importance of digital services”3

Sources: (1) Gartner Report “The Edge will eat the Cloud” (2018) (2) Cisco (2017). Visual Networking Index. (3) IDC (2018). FutureScape – Worldwide IT Industry 2018.

Bandwidth Drivers: IoT and Interactive User Interfaces

World Interconnection Bandwidth Growth 2021:

CAGR in % of Total Installed Bandwidth and Tbps

https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/


Global Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth: 8,200Tbps in 2021

Energy and Utility Growth of Interconnection Bandwidth





4. Conclusions

Outline

AI methods, CPS, and the IoT drive the digitalization of Smart City

Agglomerations enabling

• environmentally friendly manufacturing in global supply networks

with global service platforms

• future-proof Smart City Agglomerations planning processes

• real-time control of traffic

• demand-based and energy-efficient transportation

• working and living again in close quarters

• Smart City Agglomerations as parts of sustainable ecosystems.

The process towards digitalization of Smart City Agglomerations,

Smart Manufacturing, Smart Logistics, and Smart Transportation will

be enabled by drastically increasing communication bandwidths.

Conclusions

• Bandwidth for private/enterprise/manufacturing network

access:

FTTX (> 1Gb/user) and corresponding pipes to guarantee

the bandwidth/user and the QoS

• Low latency communication

• VR/AR/Holograms/gaming

• Real-time traffic control

• Smart Grid control

• Industrial applications

• Connectivity management for trillions of devices in the

network/at the network edges

Networking Challenges

The Smart City 2030?

http://cityobservatory.org/visions-of-a-future-city-part-i/

Much more live-in than drive-through cities…

Thank you very much for your attention!

Otthein Herzog

[email protected]

WeChat: otthein

mailto:[email protected]

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