the singularity is coming by takuya matsuda - code blue 2015
TRANSCRIPT
The singularity is coming
Takuya MatsudaProfessor Emeritus of Kobe University
2015/10/28Code Blue
The Problem of the Year 2045When Computers surpass Humankind
• Kosaido Shoten• 2013, January• Keibundo Book Award
What is the technological singularity? • The date when the superintelligence (SI) will
appear– 2045? (R. Kurzweil)
• What is the superintelligence?– Entity far more intelligent than human
• The date when intelligence explosion will occur– AI will rewrite its own code (I.J. Good)
• Science and technology developed enormously by SI– Human society will be hugely influenced
Hollywood view of Artificial Intelligence
映画 Matrix
2001 A Space OdysseyHAL9000: Strong AI
Stanley Kubrick, 1998
The TerminatorSkynet, Killer robots
James Cameron, 1985
Ghost in the Shell: Cyborg, Cyberbrain
Masamune Shirow, 1991; Film 1995, 2004 (Mamoru Oshii), 2011, 2013,
2015
The Matrix: Neo and the ArchitectSimulated reality hypothesis
The Wachowski Brothers, 1999
Her: Virtual assistant
Spike Jonze, 2013
Transcendence: Mind Uploading
Wally Pfister, 2014
Lucy: Superhuman
Luc Besson, Scarlett Johanson, 2014
Ex-Machina: Turing test
Alex Garland, 2015
Classification of superintelligence (SI)
• Machine SI– Terminator, Matrix
• Public image
• Superhuman– Biologically enhanced human
– Lucy• Not plausible
• Intelligent Amplification (IA)– Ghost in the shell
• Most likely
Classification of artificial intelligence
• Narrow AI
– Specific purposes
– Current AI
– Chess machine, Shogi machine, Watson
– Siri ( Virtual assistant )
• Artificial general intelligence (AGI)
– Human-like AI
– With common sense
– 2029? (R. Kurzweil)
Path to the AGI
• Biological path
– Emulate the neocortex
• Mathematical path
– Deep Learning, Fashionable
• Engineering path
– Current classical AI
– Watson
Road to the singularity• 2015-2029
– Smart machine (Gartner)
– Technological unemployment
• 2029: Pre-singularity
– AGI with 1H (Human)?
– Pass the Turing test? (R. Kurzweil)
– The ghost in the shell (M. Shirow)
• 2045: The singularity
– Intellectual capacity of all human combined (109-
10H) (R. Kurzweil)
When the singularity will occur?
• Specialist opinion poll
• 2020s: 10%
• 2040-2050: 50%
• 21st century: 90%
• Never happen:10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)
World view after singularity
• Utopian view
– R. Kurzweil
– Immortal
– SI will solve all awkward problems
• Apocalyptic view
– Humankind will be terminated or enslaved
– Hollywood view
Argument of AI threat
• Stephan Hawking (Astrophysicist)
• Elon Musk (Tesla Morters)
– AI is nuke!
– But investment to the AI company Vicarious
• Bill Gates (Microsoft)
– MS invests AI hugely
• Hollywood view
Specialists do not agree the AI threat
• Very good: 20%
• Good: 40%
• Neutral: 15%
• Bad: 15%
• Very bad: 10%
– Superintelligence (Nick Bostrom, 2014)
Realistic world after singularity
• SI and humankind will coexist
• Widening gap between nations?
– Nations with SI and those without
– Developed countries and developing countries in the 21st century
• Widening gap between individuals?
– Rich people only will be saved?
– Elysium
Society we should look for after the singularity, 1
• Omnipotent and omnibenevolent superintteligence?
– Global brain?
• Need not to work?
– Everybody are teachers of culture centers
– Basic income will be provided by the government
Ancient Greek and Rome
• Slaves performed works
• Citizens did research, sports, entertainment
• Ancient Athens: Population of some hundred thousand– Some ten thousand citizens and hundred
thousand slaves
• Future society– Robots with AI do works
– All human do research, sports and entertainment
Ancient Greek Life
Political and social implication of SI
Owner of SI can dominate the world
Turning points of humankind
• Agricultural revolution: 10000 y ago
– Settlement, village, city, nation
• Industrial revolution: 250 y ago
– Successful developed countries
• Europe, America and Japan
– Unsuccessful developing countries
• China and India
• Coming another industrial revolution
China’s past failure
• China was traditionally big and advanced country• Early Ming dynasty (1405-1433)• Zheng He’s expedition• Fleet of 317 ships holding 28,000 crewmen• Brunei, Java, Thailand, India, Africa and Arabia• China could become a world empire• But destroid all records• Spain (1492), Portugal (1498), Netherland,
England dominated ocean• West dominates the world hereafter
Japanese marginal success
• End of Edo era• Four American warships visited Japan and gave a
huge shock• Expulsion of foreigners!
– Nonsensical slogan– Satsuma and Choshu were defeated by foreign forces
• Iwakura Mission to America and Europe– Change the foreign policy to open the country
• Rulers are Shogun, Daimyo and Kuge– Samurai of lower class worked hard
Iwakura Mission
Present and future Japan
• Present time is analogous to the end of Edo era– Sleeping in peace
• SI will be future black warships• Ruling class must awake
– Politician, Bureaucrat, Entrepreneur, Media
• Present patriot– Instead of marshal arts and Dutch studies,
Mathematics, Computer and English are needed– Capable people who can build SI– Petite genius
Present and Near Future of AI
Can one stop the advance of AI?No!!
• Two motivation of promotion of AI
• Military: Pentagon
– US national security: Topmost important factor
– Challenge by China
• Money: Wall Street
– Search and advertisement
– Home, Industry, Military Robots
• Cannot stop it
Governmental level
• EU
– Human Brain Project
– Simulate human brain by super computer
– 160 B Yen in 10 years
– By 2023
• USA
– Brain Initiative
– Clarify the functions of brain
ＩＴ giants and AI
• Microsoft
• ＩＢＭ: Watson、SyNAPSE、Cortical Processor
• Baidu: Artificial Intelligence Institute,
– Andrew Ng
Competition on AI
• Manhattan project of AI
• Google secured many AI researchers
• Deep Mind
• Deep Learning: J. Hinton
• Singularity: R. Kurzweil
• Japanese startup for humanoid robots: SHAFT
• Intelligent people are the most important factor in future society
• Buy genius?
Ambition of Google
• Google glass• Google cat• Autonomous cars• D-Wave quantum computers• Hire R. Kurzweil• DeepMind: 65 B Yen• Buy 8 robots company• NEST: 320 B Yen• Artificial satellite: 50 B Yen
Japanese programs
• Dwango AI Institute
• Recruit AI Institute
• AIST
• Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
• Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
• US IT Corp: Western Governments: Japan=100:10:1
• Japan will almost certainly lose
Singularity from Japan!!
• Dr. Motoaki Saito
– “Shock by Exa-scale”
– Medical doctor of Tokyo Univ.
• Successful startup at Silicon valley
• Development of supercomputer in Japan
– 7 months+4months
– Top Green 500 2015, 1-3 position
• Exa-scale supercomputer is possible by 2020
Neuro Synaptic Processing Unit
• Current PEZY chip: 1024 cores• 10^11cores, 10^14 interconnect• By 2020-2025• Human brain
– 10^11 neurons, 10^14 synapses
• Within 6-8 litter• 10^7-10^10 times more capable than human
brain• Singularity from Japan!!??• Hardware will be OK. Software is our target.
My SI and IA
• Hardware is Saito machine (2020-2025)
• Software: HTM theory? HSTM theory?
• Synthesized neocortex is on the cloud
• Humans contact with it through wearable
• All information are there
• Help scientific research, paper writing and experiment
• Scientific explosion
My roadmap
• Skank-works type institution• 10-30 petit genius• 30 million yen/person, year• 15 years development time• 4.5-13.5 B Yen
– F35: 14 B Yen
• Huge increase of productivity• Exa-scale supercomputer• 25 B Yen
Intelligence amplification
• We already amplify our brain – Books, Wikipedia
– Smartphone, HMD
• Human and AI are unified– Virtual assistant like Siri
• Non invasive manner– HMD, Brain waves
• Invasive manner– Chips in the brain
Give rise to the singularity from Japan
• Essential to save aging Japan
• Japan will almost certainly lose
• Let us make superintelligent machine
– Saito’s brain computer
• Let us invent The Master Algorithm
• Young power is necessary