the role of the independent engineer in project finance
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Mining On Top: Stockholm 2013 26-27 Nov 2013 The role of the independent engineer in project finance – Dr Iestyn Humphreys, SRK Consulting; Managing Director of the UK officeTRANSCRIPT
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Dr IESTYN HUMPHREYS
27/11/2013
OPERAKÄLLAREN, KARL XII’s TORG, S-111 86, STOCKHOLM, KINGDOM OF SWEDEN
THE ROLE OF
TECHNICAL DUE
DILIGENCE IN MINING
FINANCE
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© SRK Consulting (UK) Limited 2013
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
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Contents
Section Page
1. INTRODUCTION TO SRK 4
2. DUE DILIGENCE: THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 7
3. TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS 9
4. COMMON THEMES 15
5. CONCLUDING REMARKS 17
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1 INTRODUCTION TO SRK
● Mining and Metals Consultancy
● Operating since 1974
● Employee owned organisation
● Consulting Services
• Exploration
• Feasibility Studies
• ESIAs
• Acquisition/Vendor Due Diligence
• Independent Engineers Reports
• CPRs
• 43-101 Technical Reports
• Mineral Asset Valuations
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SRK OFFICE LOCATIONS
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KPIs
● Sales doubled to >US$200m
over the past five years
● One year growth (12%)
● Five year growth (average of
16%)
● Country presence 22
● 50 operating consulting
practices
● 40 year milestone in 2014
● 5 year milestone for SRK
Sweden in 2014
SLIDE 6
ORGANIC GROWTH TO MEET DEMAND
• Argentina: 35
• Australia: 157
• Brazil: 16
• Canada:162
• Chile: 137
• China: 74
• Congo: 12
• Ghana: 5
• Hong Kong: 1
• India: 15
• Indonesia: 22
• Kazakhstan: 27
• Mexico: 10
• Mongolia: 10
• Peru: 134
• Russia: 53
• South Africa: 441
• Sweden: 8
• Turkey: 19
• United States: 127
• United Kingdom: 159
• UK-ES: 25
• Zimbabwe: 7
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2 THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT The Ingredients
● The super-cycle and high commodity prices
● Capital intensive marginal Mineral Assets
● Growth focused strategy
● Integration is the only way – let us go fishing
downstream
The Approach
● Due-diligence light aka the “RBS Way”
● The view from the top: “those technical
people are really conservative”
The Results
● The perfect storm
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2 THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT The Outcome
SLIDE 8
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Mineral Asset Development Stages
SLIDE 9
SRK Consulting (UK) Limited [PROJECT TITLE - RHH] – [Report Title]
Exploration Property: properties where mineralisation may or may not have been
identified, but where a Mineral Resource has not been identified;
Advanced Exploration Property: properties where considerable exploration has been
undertaken and specific targets have been identified that warrant further detailed
evaluation, usually by drill testing, trenching or some other form of detailed geological
sampling. A Mineral Resource estimate may or may not have been made, but sufficient
work will have been undertaken on at least one prospect to provide both a good
understanding of the type of mineralisation present and encouragement that further work
will elevate one or more of the prospects to the resource category;
Pre-Development Property: properties where Mineral Resources have been identified
and their extent estimated (possibly incompletely) but where a decision to proceed with
development has not been made. Properties at the early assessment stage, properties for
which a decision has been made not to proceed with development, properties on care and
maintenance and properties held on retention titles are included in this category if Mineral
Resources have been identified, even if no further Valuation, Technical Assessment,
delineation or advanced exploration is being undertaken;
Development Property: properties for which a decision has been made to proceed with
construction and/or production, but which are not yet commissioned or are not yet
operating at design levels; and
Operating Mines: mineral properties, particularly mines and processing plants that have
been commissioned and are in production.
● Exploration Property;
● Advanced Exploration
Property;
● Pre-Development Property
● Development Property
● Operating Mines
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Reporting Standards: Mapping to the CRIRSCO Template
SLIDE 10
International Reporting Template key concepts:
● Definition of a competent person and/or
qualified person
● Membership of recognised professional
institutions (enforceable Code of Ethics)
● Reciprocity “recognised overseas professional
organisations”
● Quality: competency, transparency and
materiality.
International Reporting Codes:
● JORC Code (2012)
● SAMREC Code (2007)
● CIM Guidelines (2010)
● SME Code (2007)
● PERC Code (2013)
● NAEN Code (2011)
● Peru cCode (2003)
CRIRSCOs International Reporting Template for
the Public Reporting of Exploration Results,
Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (2006)” Combined Reserves International Reporting Standards Committee
(www.crirsco.com)
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Technical Studies: Key Criteria
SLIDE 11
● Classification of Mineral Resources
● Study objectives
● Site specific technical information
● Degree of engineering completed (%)
● Design basis; cost estimation methodology
● Cost estimation accuracy (capex and opex)
● Level of contingency
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Technical Study Standards
SLIDE 12
SRK Consulting (UK) Limited [PROJECT TITLE - RHH] – [Report Title]
Item Scoping/Conceptual Study
Prefeasibility Study Feasibility Study Project Execution
Classification Indicated/Inferred Measured/Indicated Ore Reserves Ore Reserves
Study Objectives Generate a range of options. Provide information to justify a decision to proceed to a prefeasibility study, continue further data collection and assessments, or abandon the project.
Examine options and select the preferred option. Provide information to justify a decision to proceed to a feasibility study, continue with further data collection and assessments, or abandon the project.
Maximize the ‘value’ of the preferred option. Provide information to justify a decision to proceed to detailed design and construction, continue with further data collection and assessments, or abandon the project.
Percent Engineering Complete
2% to 5% 5% to15% 25% to 50% 100%
Quotations/Tenders - Supporting the Estimates
None – Benchmark Data from other projects and operations.
Equipment Quotes and benchmark material supply and construction rates. Contracts factorized from existing arrangements with preliminary negotiations as to the likely differences.
Multiple firm equipment quotes. Multiple material supply and construction quote and rates checked. Contracts negotiated to binding heads of agreement or near final agreements specific to the business case.
Equipment on order, tendered or firm quotes available. Tenders for equipment, material, supply and construction costs. Some contracts awarded. Completed and executed mine, rail and port contracts specific to the project.
Cost estimate accuracy In the order of ±50% In the order of ±30% In the order of ±10% - ±20% In the order of ±10%
Contingency >30% 20% to 25% 10% to 15% 5% to 10%
Typical time required to submit draft report
3 - 6 months 6 - 12 months ±18 months n/a
Typical cost to complete report
0.2% of project value 0.5% to 2.0% of project value 4.0% to 8% of project value n/a
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Valuation Standards
SLIDE 13
SRK Consulting (UK) Limited [PROJECT TITLE - RHH] – [Report Title]
Approach Method Method Ranking Comments
Income Discounted Cash Flow Primary Very widely used
Monte Carlo Analysis Primary Less widely used
Option Pricing Primary Not widely used and not widely understood
Probabilistic Methods Secondary Not widely used, not much accepted
Market Comparable Transactions Primary Widely used with variations
Option Agreement Terms Primary Widely used but option aspect commonly not discounted
Gross “in-situ” Metal Value Secondary Not acceptable
Net Metal Value or Value per unit of metal Secondary Widely used rule of thumb
Value per Unit Area Secondary Used for large Exploration Properties
Market Capitalization Secondary More applicable to Valuation of single property asset junior companies than to properties
Cost Appraised Value Primary Widely used but not accepted by all regulators
Multiple of Exploration Expenditure Primary Similar to the Appraised Value Method but includes a multiplier factor
Geoscience Factor Secondary Not widely used
SRK Consulting (UK) Limited [PROJECT TITLE - RHH] – [Report Title]
Valuation Approach Exploration Property Advanced Exploration Property Development Property Operating Property
Income No In some cases Yes Yes
Market Yes Yes Yes Yes
Cost Yes In some cases No No
International Valuation Standards:
● Valmin Code (2005)
● Samval Code (2007)
● Cimval Code (2003)
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3 TECHNICAL FOUNDATIONS
Environmental and Social
SLIDE 14
● The International Finance
Corporation (“IFC”) Performance
Standards on Social and
Environmental Sustainability
(2006; updated January 2012).
● The Equator Principles (“EPs”) is
a risk management framework
adopted by financial institutions.
The EPs require that the mining projects (Category A projects) undertake an
ESIA, produce an ESIA report, develop an ESMP, establish and maintain an
ESMS and undertake effective stakeholder engagement. Address
compliance with host country legislation and observe the relevant IFC
Performance Standards and the World Bank Group EHS guidelines.
The IFC Performance Standards are complemented by the World Bank
Group Environmental, Health and Safety (“EHS”) Guidelines (April 2007),
comprising a series of General EHS Guidelines and Industry Sector EHS
Guidelines.
National legislation and international standards require that an environmental and social impact assessment (“ESIA”) is
undertaken for a mining project, during the planning of the project. Complemented by an environmental and social
management plan (“ESMP”). The ESIA and ESMP are often used to set legally binding conditions of environmental approval.
Implementation of ESMP/s requires an environmental and social management system (“ESMS”).
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4 COMMON THEMES
Classification: mathematical approach and the spotty dog effect
SLIDE 15
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4 COMMON THEMES
Anecdotal Evidence
SLIDE 16
● “But those are not the forecasts which we used to agree the Transaction Basis”
● “It will take too long and it costs too much”
● “You would not believe what we had to do to convince non-execs to take the due-diligence light
approach”
● The addiction to differentiation: Final Feasibility Study; Definitive Feasibility Study; Bankable
Feasibility Study
● Unrealistic expectations
● Mining Selectivity and dilution
● Overly aggressive ramp up schedules to name
plate capacity
● Manufacturer operating efficiencies, not
tempered for local environment
● Too much factoring and not enough
engineering based on site specific data
● Non-representative samples for metallurgical
test-work (sample grade vs RoM)
● From Concept to Front End Engineering
Design
The Usual Suspects
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5 CONLCUDING REMARKS
A Reflective Poem
Some mines make me happy,
Some mines make me blue;
But the one that gave me the most joy.
Was the one I sold to you.
SLIDE 17
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5 CONLCUDING REMARKS
The Mining Finance Guide - 2014
“The technical aspects a company needs
to consider to meet the expectations of
the mining finance community”
Anonymous Quote
“To make a friend of assumptions is to
make an enemy of due diligence”
SLIDE 18