the role of productive sanitation for global sustainability johan rockström executive director
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The role of productive Sanitation for global
sustainabilityJohan Rockström
Executive Director
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23-04-20Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
A biosphere shaped by humanity
Potsdam Memorandum 10th October 2007
”Is there a ”third way” between environmental destablisation and persisting under-development? Yes, there is, but this way has to bring about, rapidly and ubiquituously, a thorough re-invention of our industrial metabolism – the Great Transformation. This is an awesome challenge, yet we have one comparative advantage over all previous generations: an incredibly advanced system of knowledge production that can be harnessed, in principle, to co-generate that transformation together with courageous political leaders, enlightened business executives and civil society at large”
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Globalisation of the EnvironmentFishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand
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Water and food to attain the MDGs
2200 km3/yr “new” water 2005-2015
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Source Nutrients Production System Consumption ”Waste” load to aquatic ecosystems
Closing the Nutrient Loop
The System dilemma
Oil Price
”Sustainable” biofuel supply
Wealth driven diet shifts
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Ecosystem ServicesThe wealth generated for human beings
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Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentKey messages
60 % of analysed ecosystem services degraded over the past 50 years
Agriculture the major driver behind ecosystem change
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The Challenge of meeting food demands on sustainable ground
New Green-Green Revolution Focus on small-scale agriculture in
developing countries – Triply Green Revolution
Agricultural revolution in integrated soil-water-crop management necessary
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Nutrient Recycling and Agricultural productivity Largest potential in sub-Saharan Africa (return
80 – 100 % of current fertiliser use) Developing countries – large potential to return
substantial volumes of macro-nutrients (2-3 kg P, 10-15 kg N)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 250 500 750 1000 1250
Rainfall (mm yr-1)
Gra
in y
ield
(kg
ha-1
)
Farmers yield - highrainfallFarmers yield - lowrainfallYields without nutrientdeficitSimulated waterlimited production
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Dynamics of Water
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0 2 4 6 8 10
Yield (t/ha)
Wat
er p
rod
uct
ivit
y (m
3/to
n)
Pandey et al.
Dancette, 1983
Stewart et al., 1975
Rockstrom et al., 1998
Save 1500 km3/yr ~ Present Consumptive Use in World Irrigation
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C SOURCES AND SINKS (Gt/yr)
Ind
ust
ry7
Land U
se C
hang
e
1.6
Volc
anoes
0.08
Weath
eri
ng
0.19
120
Ph
oto
syn
the
sis
2.7
Incr
ease
d U
pta
ke b
y
Pla
nts
120
Resip
irati
on
LAND
Adapted from New Scientist 19 May 2007
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The potential ”flip” of the Baltic Sea
A vulnerable Social-ecological system under extreme stress
23-04-20
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Adaptation to Climate ChangeAn urgent development challenge
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Agrarian revolutionIntegration water, soil, nutrients
CA
WHEcoSan
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Concluding remarks Huge global challenge of a new Green-Green-
Green revolution Globalisation and the Planetary phase of
sustainability requires new thinking on the future of agriculture
Small-holder farmers in tropical developing countries in focus
Closing the sanitation loop AND integrating with innovations in water and land management can provide the key to a new green revolution