the role of forest bioenergy in 2050 low carbon scenarios · the role of forest bioenergy in 2050...
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TheRoleofForestBioenergyin
2050LowCarbonScenariosDavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,
KunbiAdetona,MSc.PhDStudent,
CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)IniGaGve,Univ.ofCalgary.Web:www.cesarnet.caEmail:[email protected]
CanadianMuseumofNature,ORawa–Sept13,2017
THEROLEOFFORESTBIOENERGYINCANADA’SENERGYFUTURE
Canada’sGreenhouseGas(GHG)Emissions&Targets
Energy–TransportaGon[202]
1990 2010 20300
200
400
600
800
MtC
O2e/yr
Year 2040
Energy–StaGonary[328]
Energy–FugiGve[57]
205020202000
Ind.proc.&prod.Use[51]
Agriculture[59]
Agriculture Waste[25]
Sept2017
[2015GHGsinMtCO2e/yr]
[722]
ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports
EnergySystems(81%)
2009Copenhagen1997Kyoto
Commitment
-17%
-30%
-65%
-90%
2015Paris
2015Paris
Canada’sGHGChallenge
FailedFailed
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
EnergySectors(uses4,000PJ)
But…Energyflowsaren’ttheproblem:
CFLOWSARE…
1oEnergy(29,000PJ)
947PJ
DemandSectors(uses9,000PJ)
(16,000PJ)
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON
HowwouldtheCflowschangeifallAgricultureandForestrywere
consideredaspartofenergysystems?
0
10
20
30KgC/G
J
Biom
ass
Coal
Oil
NGas
TotalFlows–Canada,2013ENERGY CARBON
AnthropogenicCarbonFlows–Canada,2013FOOD,FIBRE,FUEL&ELECTRICITY
200MtC
FUEL&ELECTRICITY
200MtC
41%more1ocarbonflow
Sun
CO2
" IncludingFood&FibrepathwaysinCanada’senergysystemsincreasesCflowby41%,andthataddiGonalCisextractedfromair;
NOTE
" CflowthroughAgric.&Forestry(171MtCor628MtCO2)issimilartooilrecovery(164MtCor601MtCO2).
" MostofbiomassCreturnstotheatmosphere(notasaGHG).But,someCpassesthrough‘tempor-ary’storage(For:15MtC,600PJ).
ForestBiomassResourcePotenGal
500PJ/yr
PJ/yr MtC/yr
ForestResidues 370 10
UnusedAAC 600 16
Bugwood ? ?
FastGrowingtrees ? ?
TOTAL ~1000+ ~26+
PrimaryEnergy&CarbonAvailable
50%
30%
300PJ/yr
ConversionEfficiencytoBiofuel
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
EnergyFlows-Total:Canada,2013
PersonalTransportaGon
Gasoline
Diesel
AviaGon
Ethanol1,372PJ
Fuel
2013 2050
Electric,Shared,AutonomousVehicles
Bio-basedjetfuel(need200+PJ/yr)
FreightTransportaGon
1,265PJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
CanadaFreight_Transport transportation energyusebyfuelType
NGL
electricity
ethanol
biodiesel
CNG
aviation_turbo_fuel
aviation_gasoline
heavy_fuel_oil
diesel_fuel_oil
Diesel
Gasoline
HeavyFuelOil
AviaGon
Fuel
2013 2050
LighterVehiclesandUrbanVehicles:Electric
Semi-trucksforheavy,LDTransport
Biojet?Electric
H2FuelCellelectric
CNG#RNG
DME(Upto
500PJ/yr)
Biomass
NG
Electricity
Oil
ResidenGalBuildings(2013)
1,592PJ
Fuel
ElectricHeatPumps
?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS
2013 2050
Commercial&InsGt.Bldgs
942PJ NGL
NaturalGas
Electricity
FuelOil
Fuel
2013 2050
ElectricHeatPumps(esp.groundsource)
?Districtbiomasscombinedheatandpower,esp.withCCS
EnergyUsingIndustries
2,661PJ
Coal/Petcoke
NG
Biomass
NGL
Electricity
FuelOil
Fuel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Canadaindustrial energyusebyenrEndUseNFIndAll
Electrolysis_Other_MetalsElectrolysisAnode_ManufacturingElectrolysis_AluminumWater_HeatingSteam_and_Water_HeatingProcess_HeatElectric_ArcingProcess_Heat_and_SteamelecGenSteamSpace_ConditioningLightingMotive
MoGve
Electricity
Steam
ProcessHeat
&Steam
ProcessHeatWaterHeaGng
SpaceCondiGoning
Electrolysis
EndUse
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Canadaindustrial energyusebycanReg
Fertilizer_Prd
Smelt_refin
Cement
Mining
Forestry
Other_Man
Iron_Steel
Chemicals
Pulp_Paper
Chemicals
OtherManufact-
uring
Mining
ConstrucGon
Pulp&Paper
Iron
SmeltRefiningFerGlizer
Sector
2013 2050
SmallmodularNuclearCHP
CNGCHP,coupledtoCCS
BiomassorRNGCHP,ideallycoupledtoCCS
ElectrificaGon
Outline
1. Canada’sEnergySystems! Themagnitudeofthechallenge&opportunity
2. BioenergyintheEnergySystemsof2050! ‘PredicCon’,assumingtheworldisseriousabout
GHGreducCons
3. TheSystemsChallenge
TheSystemsChallenge
WhatdoestheAtmosphereno\ce?
IfforestbiomassisleHinforest:
Ifforestbiomassremovedtomakebiofuels:
Versus
Foravibrantforestbioenergysectorinthefuture,thesystemslevel
quesConsmustbeaddressednow.
0
200
400
600
800
MtC
O2e/yr
Agriculture
1000
1990 2010Year 2000
AddingtheForestryFactor
HumanImpactonForestLandRemainingForestLand(FLFL)
+EmissionsfromCanada’sHarvestedWoodProducts
+EmissionsfromLargeForestFires(nothumancaused)
ModifiedfromECCC2016and2017NaGonalInventoryReports,includingvaluesprovidedforLULUCFinthe2017NIR
Conclusions1. CanadahassignificantFeedstockresources2. The2050opportuniGesforbioenergy/
biofuels:! AviaGonFuels! Heavytruckingfuels(lotsofcompeGGon)! CombinedHeatandPower(esp.withCCS)
3. CriGcalneedstoday:! FigureoutfeedstocklogisGcs! Improveconversionefficiency,reducecosts! AddresstheSystemsChallengeheadon