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The Role of Carbon Capture and Sequestration in Solving Global
Warmingand Policy Needs
George Peridas, Ph.D.Scientist, NRDC Climate Center,
September 23rd 2009September 23 , 2009
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
NRDC and CCS• We first started studying CCS 12+ years ago• Why?Why?
– Not because we want to perpetuate the use of fossil fuelsN t b ffi i d bl t– Not because efficiency and renewables cannot provide a long term solution
– Not because we subscribe to the “clean coal” camp– Because there is a huge gap between what is
happening and what needs to happen to protect the climateclimate
– Because CCS can stimulate faster policy action to the benefit of truly sustainable technologiesBecause we believe CCS can deliver emission– Because we believe CCS can deliver emission reductions safely and effectively
Questions we ask about CCS
• Is it safe?Is it safe?• Is it effective? Will it leak?• Will it prolong coal use?Will it prolong coal use?• Will it prolong damages from coal use?• Will it crowd out energy efficiency and renewable• Will it crowd out energy efficiency and renewable
energy?• Will it accelerate or delay cuts in carbon• Will it accelerate or delay cuts in carbon
emissions?• Will projects be sited properly?Will projects be sited properly?
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
The world’s energy mix (2006)
Primary energy Electricity generation
Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009
Electricity generation mix
U.S.
China
Source: DOE-EIA, Electric Power Annual, January 2009 & China Analysis Brief, July 2009
World CO2 emissions (2006)
28,003 million tonnes of CO2
Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2009
Will emissions keep growing?• Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU): world CO2
emissions to rise 39% by 2030 from 2006 levels• Largest growth from coal
Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2009
Where will the growth come from?
• Developing country growth overshadows that from developed countriesp
• But: a citizen from a developing country consumes a fraction of the energy we do
Source: DOE-EIA International Energy Outlook, May 2007
An enormous emissions potentialpotential
Trillion tonnes CO2
Atmosphere All Fossil Fuels Fossil Non-Coal Coal
25
p
15
20
10
15
5
01750 1750-2000 In Air Today World Fossil
Fuel Resources
New coal plant emissions 26% greater than all historic coal CO2g 2
660
Lifetime emissions (billion tonnes CO2)
524
660
600
70034% of remaining
400
500
600 budget for 450ppm
stabilization
200
300
400
0
100
200
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006
Coal Use1751-2000
New Coal Plantsnext 25 years
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
No silver bullets
1200
1400
FutureHistory
2100740 ppm
1200
1400FutureHistory 2100
550 ppm
800
1000
1200
..
2050510 ppm
800
1000
1200
.
2050490 ppm
400
600
800
EJ/
year
1950310
Today380 ppm
400
600
800
EJ/
year
Today380 ppm
0
200
00
Preindustrial280 ppm
1900300 ppm
310 ppm
0
200
400
Preindustrial280 ppm
1900300 ppm
1950310 ppm
01850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
01850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Oil Oil + CCSNatural Gas Natural Gas + CCSCoal Coal + CCSBiomass Energy Nuclear Energy
Source: Jim Dooley, Joint Global Change Research Institute. Reproduced with thanks
Biomass Energy Nuclear EnergyNon-Biomass Renewable Energy End-use Energy
We are only at the beginning
• We are at the very early stages of CCS deployment
• A mature system could entail:
100s of capture facilities– 100s of capture facilities– 10,000s miles of CO2
pipelines100 f illi f t f– 100s of millions of tonnes of CO2 being injected annually
Source: Jim Dooley, Joint Global Change Research Institute. Reproduced with thanks
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
Is a truly renewable energy system possible?p
• Technologically: YESE ASES l i– E.g. ASES analysis
• One small glitch: politicsLittl id f tit f h l ti• Little evidence of appetite for such a revolution– Renewables PTC
RES– RES• Two strategies:
Eliminate coal use– Eliminate coal use– Reduce dependence on coal AND capture carbon
from the coal that is used
The politics of coal
CCS is one of many tools
Source: McKinsey
CCS can enable deep cuts
• 15-55% of needed reductions by 2100 (IPCC)15 55% of needed reductions by 2100 (IPCC)• Back out oil with plug-in hybrids and CCS power
generationg• Biofuels with a smaller carbon footprint• Biomass with CCS for power with potentially netBiomass with CCS for power with potentially net
carbon emissions
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
Barriers to CCSPolicy
R l ti
EconomicsTechnologyRegulations
• Technological– A lot of improvement is expected, but we know do
enough to get started and use the technology safelyenough to get started and use the technology safely and effectively today
• Policy & Economicy– Additional costs– No value yet in reducing emissions
CCS d t t i iti l t h dl– CCS needs support to overcome initial cost hurdles
Outline
Background
The world’s energy system and CO2 emissions
How to reduce emissions?
CCS as a tool
Barriers & policy needs
It’s not just about CO2
It’s not just about CO2
Propaganda courtesy of the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
Coal combustion waste
www.nrdc.org/energy/coalwaste//coalwaste/
Conclusions• We must reduce carbon emissions urgently• Coal use alone will cause havoc with the climateCoal use alone will cause havoc with the climate• Heavy global dependence on fossil fuels• China (and India) make CCS even more critical( )• No silver bullets• Considerable abatement potential from CCS • One of many tools to cut carbon• Swift policy action is the most important step
– CCS can accelerate this step politically– Federal climate policy is key for all low carbon
technologiestechnologies• CCS does not make coal “clean”
Warming won’t wait – will we?Arctic summer ice could disappear completely within 5-6 years
Contact
George Peridas, Ph.D.g ,
Natural Resources Defense Council
111 Sutter St. 20th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94104
℡ 415-875-6181202-390-9453202 390 [email protected]