The Reality of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Production of Hydro

systems in Iran

Prof. H.Sedghi

Member of Academy

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The science is not Ideology but a source of doubt

The Earth Science is actually facing three concepts of climatic change:

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Introduction :

First :

Real or Actual Climate Change :

Universal and natural climate variation based on “Energy balance of Sun – Atmosphere and Earth” including spatial contribution.

This change is obviously periodic and reversible.

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Second

Climate change based on development activities:

:

Any man interference in nature even if it is called sustainable. (Sustainable development is not possible in a sensible climate region).

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Third:

Potential Climate Change or Probable Climate Change:

Irreversible change based on global evolution of almost a single meteorological parameter (air temperature).

known as “Global warming”.

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The General Definition of Climate :

1- Climatology:Encompasses behavior of temperature and humidity in a geographical perimeter.

2- Hydrology: Encompasses resultant of numerical values of all natural parameters presenting the climate as a variable.

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Sciences dealing with water production on earth

• Geography • Climatology• Meteorology• Hydrometeorology• Hydrology

Groundwater hydrology

Surface water hydrology

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Surface Water Hydrology

• Which is the most applicable science for water production in the nature.

• And the other sciences seems to be auxiliary tools for solving the related problems.

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Processes transforming climate to water:

1- Natural Processes

2- Mathematical Simulated Processes

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A parallel presentation of two processes is:

• Based on weather and climate data national centers for environmental prediction. National weather service, NOAA.

• Hydrological data processing of a major hydro systems in Iran.

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An example of several meteorological parameters as point time variables

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Air Masses generation in north hemisphere

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IRAN

PRINCIPAL PERIMETERS OF AIR MOISTURE SUPPLY OF IRAN IN THE NORTH HEMISPHER

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Principal trajectory of moisture into Iran

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Random distribution of air moisture in the trajectory

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Alborz orography as a random target

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Zagross orography as a random target

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Surface water Generation Zone and Water Use Perimeters

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Caspian Sea

Persian Golf

Coordinates of five principal Rivers Generating 50 percent of lumped S.W. Production of Iran.

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Caspian Sea

Persian Golf

Water Production Zone

Transient Zone

Consumption Zone

Water Production Zone

Transient Zone

Consum

ption Zone

Water Production, Transient and Consumption Zones

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Legend

Annuals Variation of Estimated Volume in BCM

JELOGIR KARKHE

TALE ZANG DEZ

ARMAND KARUN

MARGHAK BAZOFT

BARZ KHERSAN

Legend

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2424

2525

Daily hydrographs of P.shalu for 1992 and 2008

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0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 3600

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Day

Dis

char

ge((

CM

S

Cu.

Va.

MC

M)

16383

1992

2008-2009

Cu. Va. (MCM) 1992- 1993

Cu. Va. (MCM) 2008-2009

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K1 Spill during 71-72

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101111121131141151161171

Days

Q in

cm

s

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هاي شالو ٧١-٧٢سيالب پل در

Flood Hydrographs of 71-72 at pol-shalu

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Time in hours

Q in

cm

s

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Climate Change based on Development

Development Activities :

1. Dam and Reservoir construction2. Change the regime of surface flow3. Water use for any kind of consumption4. Satisfy the growing demand, and briefly man interference in any phaseany components of “Hydrologic Balance” or

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In Some Climates such as Middle-East

• Only a simple interference could destroy the whole Ecosystem.

• Example: Mesopotamian system had experienced its Irreversible Retrograded Evolution since the Apparition of the first Dam in the Environmental countries.

• The Result: A Real Climate Change

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Briefly

Climate change and consequently Water quantity and quality change is real and permanent in our hydro systems.

Only the natural change and man made one are detectable by real and measured available data.

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Briefly The climatic scenarios based on Ultra scale

natural simulation models are useful if a deterministic correlation between climatic parameters and Water quantity and Water quality could be available.

Enough Clean Water or Optimal Clean Air ?

We have to choose one , if both of theme may be an other time.

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With many Thanks to my Ph.D Students:

• H. Khedmati • H. Rahmati• M. M. Sabaghi