The Atlanta Regional Commission’s “The Quarter” looks at some of the leading indicators of overall economic health from a non-economist’s view. It compares Atlanta to other metropolitan areas and looks at the counties within the region where the data allow. While this is not a comprehensive look at the local economy, it is a gauge of the general direction the economy is moving.

Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

ATL US

During the Great Recession (Dec 2007 – June 2009, officially) and immediately afterwards, Atlanta was performing worse than the nation as a whole when looking at year-over-year employment changes. Since March of 2012, however, Atlanta has outperformed the nation each month.

Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary. Shaded areas represent recessions this decade)

Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-132,100

2,150

2,200

2,250

2,300

2,350

2,400

2,450

2,500

Month-by-Month Total Employment (in thousands)December 2005– March 2013

Overall employment levels are nearing the levels last seen in 2008, but we still have a long way to get back to pre-recession levels.

Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)

Professional/Business

Annual Percent Change:Employment in High-Paying Sectors in Metro Atlanta

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-10

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Information Percent Change Finance Percent

Change

-12.0-10.0

-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.0

Wholesale Trade Percent Change

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Percent Change

Employment in key sectors continues to remain in positive territory, on a year-over-year basis.

Source: BLS (March 2013 figures are preliminary)

Total Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Initial unemployment insurance claims are spiky – with spikes usually occurring in January due to seasonal layoffs after the holidays. But the latest month, March, has the lowest number of claims since February 2008.

Source: GA DOL

Monthly Building Permits – Metro Atlanta

Dec-0

5

Mar-

06

Jun-0

6

Sep-0

6

Dec-0

6

Mar-

07

Jun-0

7

Sep-0

7

Dec-0

7

Mar-

08

Jun-0

8

Sep-0

8

Dec-0

8

Mar-

09

Jun-0

9

Sep-0

9

Dec-0

9

Mar-

10

Jun-1

0

Sep-1

0

Dec-1

0

Mar-

11

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Mar-

12

Jun-1

2

Sep-1

2

Dec-1

2

Mar-

130

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Source: SOCDS

The metro Atlanta housing market is still weak. There were 1,621 residential permits issued in March of this year. In contrast, there were almost 7,300 residential permits issued in March of 2006.

Total Building Permits Issues – 2013 YTD (Through March)Top 15 Metros

Las VegasBoston

PhiladelphiaChicagoOrlando

CharlotteMiami

AtlantaPhoenix

Los AngelesAustin

Washington DCNew York

DallasHouston

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Although permitting activity is WAY off when compared to pre-recession, metro Atlanta still ranks 8th in the nation in the number of residential permits issued thus far in 2013.

Source: SOCDS

County-By County: Total Building Permits Issued2011-2013 (Through March)

Barrow

Bartow

Carroll

Cher...

ClaytonCobb

Coweta

DeKalb

Douglas

Fayette

Forsyth

Fulton

Gwin... Hall

Henry NePaul...

Rock...

Spal...

Walto

n0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

201120122013

Most jurisdictions have seen more permitting activity in 2013 than in the previous year (through March). Fulton County has issued, by far, the most residential permits thus far in 2013.

Source: SOCDS

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Metro Atlanta: 2000 - Current

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Home prices have rebounded nicely since the beginning of 2012, although the gains have leveled off somewhat of late. Still, home prices in metro Atlanta continue to trade below January 2000 prices, wiping out a decade of housing price gains.

Source: Case-Shiller Index

NV-Las VegasFL-Miami

AZ-PhoenixFL-Tampa

MI-DetroitCA-San Diego

IL-ChicagoCA-Los Angeles

CA-San FranciscoComposite-10

GA-AtlantaMN-Minneapolis

WA-SeattleDC-Washington

NY-New YorkOR-Portland

OH-ClevelandMA-Boston

NC-CharlotteCO-Denver

TX-Dallas

-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%

-55.0%-45.2%

-43.7%-42.7%-36.6%-34.4%-34.3%-33.5%-32.1%-29.6%-28.9%-27.6%-26.7%-26.4%-24.9%-24.0%-19.6%-15.7%-15.4%

-5.1%-4.5%

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)Home Price Decline Since Peak

While a 29 percent decline in Atlanta home prices is not good, it is not as bad as the decline in some other metro areas, particularly in the previously “hot” coastal markets and western boomtowns.

Source: Case-Shiller Index

Foreclosure Filings (Through March) 2010 – 2013

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010201120122013

In every county, foreclosures are lower in 2013, thus far, when compared to the same period in the previous three years.

Source: Equity Depot

Office Vacancy Rate – Metro Atlanta2000 - current

2000

1Q

2000

2Q

2000

3Q

2000

4Q

2001

1Q

2001

2Q

2001

3Q

2001

4Q

2002

1Q

2002

2Q

2002

3Q

2002

4Q

2003

1Q

2003

2Q

2003

3Q

2003

4Q

2004

1Q

2004

2Q

2004

3Q

2004

4Q

2005

1Q

2005

2Q

2005

3Q

2005

4Q

2006

1Q

2006

2Q

2006

3Q

2006

4Q

2007

1Q

2007

2Q

2007

3Q

2007

4Q

2008

1Q

2008

2Q

2008

3Q

2008

4Q

2009

1Q

2009

2Q

2009

3Q

2009

4Q

2010

1Q

2010

2Q

2010

3Q

2010

4Q

2011

1Q

2011

2Q

2011

3Q

2011

4Q

2012

1Q

2012

2Q

2012

3Q

2012

4Q

2013

1Q

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

The recession earlier this decade drove up office vacancy rates for the next few years, andthey never returned to their pre recession levels. Vacancy rates continue to be higher than the ‐highest levels experienced during the last recession. However, vacancy is trending slightly downward.

Source: CoStar

2000

1Q

2000

3Q

2001

1Q

2001

3Q

2002

1Q

2002

3Q

2003

1Q

2003

3Q

2004

1Q

2004

3Q

2005

1Q

2005

3Q

2006

1Q

2006

3Q

2007

1Q

2007

3Q

2008

1Q

2008

3Q

2009

1Q

2009

3Q

2010

1Q

2010

3Q

2011

1Q

2011

3Q

2012

1Q

2012

3Q

2013

1Q

(3,000,000)

(2,000,000)

(1,000,000)

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Total Net Absorption of Office Space – Metro Atlanta2000 - current

There have now been eight consecutive quarters with positive net absorption (more occupied office space at the end of the quarter compared to the beginning). Absorption levels still are significantly lower than they were pre-recession, however.

Source: CoStar

Number of Retail Buildings Under Construction– Metro Atlanta2000 - current

2000

1Q

2000

2Q

2000

3Q

2000

4Q

2001

1Q

2001

2Q

2001

3Q

2001

4Q

2002

1Q

2002

2Q

2002

3Q

2002

4Q

2003

1Q

2003

2Q

2003

3Q

2003

4Q

2004

1Q

2004

2Q

2004

3Q

2004

4Q

2005

1Q

2005

2Q

2005

3Q

2005

4Q

2006

1Q

2006

2Q

2006

3Q

2006

4Q

2007

1Q

2007

2Q

2007

3Q

2007

4Q

2008

1Q

2008

2Q

2008

3Q

2008

4Q

2009

1Q

2009

2Q

2009

3Q

2009

4Q

2010

1Q

2010

2Q

2010

3Q

2010

4Q

2011

1Q

2011

2Q

2011

3Q

2011

4Q

2012

1Q

2012

2Q

2012

3Q

2012

4Q

2013

1Q

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

As with residential building, construction of retail buildings is also way down when compared to historical trends, with practically no construction activity observed since the end of 2008.

Source: CoStar