the pspc process for setting low-carbon design …...4. new sources of low-carbon energy to the...
TRANSCRIPT
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The PSPC process for setting low-carbon design targets
Antoni Paleshi
Senior Energy Performance Specialist, Sustainability & Energy, Kitchener
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1. Drivers
2. Key Concepts
3. Methodology
4. Sample GHG Reduction Measures
5. Study Results
6. Conclusion
Outline
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1. Drivers
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Can we make a business case
for Carbon Neutral Buildings?
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Future Financial Impacts with Climate Change
Climate Change Do Something Today Do Nothing
Not Real $
Real $ $$$
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Drivers
Limit temperature increase to 2.0 °C 30% reduction on emissions
PARIS AGREEMENT PAN-CANADIAN FRAMEWORK
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Ontario’s Climate Action Goals
https://www.ontario.ca/page/climate-change-action-plan
* below 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels** based on the 2016 National Inventory Report
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Federal Commitments
Greening Government Strategy:—By 2050: 80% reduction in GHG emissions from
facilities and fleet relative to 2005
—By 2022: all new facilities will be net-zero carbon ready
PSPC’s Real Estate Portfolio:—Goal to achieve carbon neutral footprint by 2030
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2. Key Concepts
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Energy Cost GHG Emissions
Electricity
Natural Gas
Natural Gas vs. Electricity in Ontario
Natural gas has 4-5x more GHG emissions than electricity (right now)
Electricity costs 4-5x more than natural gas (right now)
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Definition of Carbon Neutrality
Emissions Green Power
ZERO CARBON BALANCE
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Federal Government’s Plan for Carbon Pricing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$ /
ton
ne
eCO
2
BC current pricing
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Carbon Pricing
$400/tonne
Science, 2017, 355:6331, pp 1269-71 2020 2050
$50/tonne
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Carbon Pricing after 2022?
Source: National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aggressive ($/ton)
Steady ($/ton)
Minimum ($/ton)
0.9 ¢/kWh - NG0.5 ¢/kWh - Elec
4.5 ¢/kWh - NG2.5 ¢/kWh - Elec
NG: 2 ¢/kWh => 6.5¢/kWhElec: 12 ¢/kWh => 14.5 ¢/kWh
$150/tonne Average(for reference)
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Electricity Grid Carbon Intensity Province-by-Province (2015)
797
720667
603
385
282
42 41 32 20 13 3 10
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
AB NU SA NS NT NB YT ON NL PE BC MN QC
g e
CO
2/kW
h
Natural Gas (now)
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2. Methodology
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3% 1% -12%
-2% 0% -6%-2%
-6%-26%
-9%-12%
-1% <1% 0% 0% 0% -18%
-9%
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
200
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ovatio
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Pro
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Pro
cure
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ther
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tCO
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% Reduction from 2015-16
Portfolio Level: PSPC National Perspective
14%23%
26%
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PSPC’s Priorities for Carbon Neutrality
Efficiency first
Strategic fuel switching
Installation of renewables on-site
Procurement of off-site renewables (e.g., RECs)
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Process Followed(Multi-Disciplinary Project)
Define Code
Reference &
Minimum1 Create &
Analyze Measures2 Create &
Analyze Options3
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Process Followed(Multi-Disciplinary Project)
• Define Code Reference
• Define Minimum
1
Option 1: Minimum Departmental Commitments
• 24%-28% better than NECB 2015
• LEED v4 BD+C Silver/Gold Certification
• PSPC Technical Reference for Office Buildings
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Process Followed(Multi-Disciplinary Project)
Generate Measures2a
30-40 Measures
• Enclosure
• Space
• HVAC – Delivery
• HVAC – Plant
• Renewable Energy
Including “Moonshot” Ideas.
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Process Followed(Multi-Disciplinary Project)
Analyze Measures2b
Detailed Analysis
• GHG Reduction Potential
• Energy Savings
• Financial Metrics
• Occupant Health & Comfort
• Cost & Operational Risk
• Schedule Impact
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Process Followed(Multi-Disciplinary Project)
Package and
Analyze Options
3
Option 2Design to achieve Cost-Neutral (25 years – NPV) GHG Reductions
Option 3Design to Achieve Maximum GHG Reductions
Option 4Hybrid GHG Emissions and Reductions Design
Best value for YOUR money.
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Performance Metrics
Thermal Energy Demand Intensity (TEDI)Unit: kWh/m2
Indicates enclosure & HVAC delivery perf.
Total Energy Use Intensity (TEUI) Unit: kWh/m2
GHG Intensity (GHGI) Unit: kg eCO2/m2
Incremental Capital Cost
Incremental Life Cycle Cost
𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑑
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
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Incremental Life Cycle Costing (LCC)
25 year study
Variables assessed:
— Inflation
—Discount rate
—Capital cost (and replacement cost)
—Operations and Maintenance (O&M) costs
—Energy cost and future increases
—Carbon price
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Cost Consultant
WSPSustainability
Simulation Specialist
Building Science
Electrical
Mechanical
Architect
Owner & Operator
Integrated Approach
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Case Study 1:Major RetrofitOttawa, ON
Space Type Commercial office
Size72,000 m2
10 Storeys
Min.
Targets
LEED v4 Silver
40% reduction in carbon
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Case Study 2: New Construction / ExpansionVancouver
Space Type Commercial office
Size96,600 m2
36 Storeys
Features
Use of Wood
Central Atrium
Major Expansion
Min. Targets 2025: 100 ekWh/m2
LEED v4 Gold
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2. Measures
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Space Measures – Future Workplace
Use the buildings part of the budget to enhance the salaries and benefits part of the budget.
Brill, Weidemann, & BOSTI Associates, 2001
New Building
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ENE/WSW
DALI
Solar Control
Operable Windows
Comfort Feedback
Space Empower the User
Activity-BasedWorkplace
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Space
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Space Empower the User
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Overall performance (R-Value) matter’s most!
—Window-to-wall ratio (WWR)
—Window performance
—Opaque wall performance
— Thermal bridging
Aim for overall min. average of R-6 to R-10Many office towers are around R-3
Enclosure
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Overall performance (R-Value) matter’s most!
Typical WWR
Enclosure
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General HVAC Trends
1. Separate systems for separate purposes/usage patterns (e.g. core and perimeter systems in office)
2. User-responsive
3. Very low power (i.e. fans and pumps)
4. Low-exergy or “Near-temp”: high-temp cooling, low-temp heating
HVAC -Delivery
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Under Floor Ventilation w/ Radiant slab/panelsHVAC -Delivery
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Linking HVAC with Envelope
Improved envelope reduces HVAC sizingResults in HVAC capital cost savings
Good enclosures required for high performance HVAC
HVAC -Delivery
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Enclosure Performance and HVAC – Heating
and VAV Reheat, Fan Coils
HVAC -Delivery
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Boiler:— Natural Gas (94% efficient)— Biomass (85% efficient)— Electric (100% efficient but expensive!)
Heat Recovery Chiller— Data Centers— Exhaust air
Air-source Heat Pump:— Average COP Heating: 2.5-3.0— Average COP Cooling: 4.0-5.0
Geo-exchange system:— Average COP Heating: 3.5-4.0— Average COP Cooling: 5.0-6.0+
Plant Options SummaryHVAC Plant
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Plant Options SummaryHVAC Plant
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GeothermalHVAC Plant
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PhotovoltaicsRenewables
Rooftop Building Integrated
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“Moonshots”Renewables
1. New innovations in existing industries, especially Canadian-made (e.g. Morgan Solar panels)
2. Uncommon and/or newer products or systems (e.g. phase change materials, electrochromic glass, hybrid VRF)
3. Uncommon sources/sinks for heating and cooling (e.g. lakes, rivers, waste-water)
4. New sources of low-carbon energy to the buildings industry (e.g. hydrogen fuel cell, wind generation, biogas generation)
5. Load-shifting technologies (e.g. batteries, flywheel, thermal storage)
6. Carbon capture (e.g. algae)
What opportunities exist in the geo-exchange industry?
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3. Results
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At a glance
60
25-year Cost / Tonne ($/tonne)
25-year Carbon Saved (%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
HRChiller
Space
Delivery
Enclosure
Geoexchange
$15
0/t
on
ne
CAUTION! SOMEWHAT SPECULATIVE!!
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Results – Package SummaryItem NECB 2015 Option 1
Min DesignOption 2LCC Neutral
Option 3Max. GHG Reduction
Option 4Hybrid
Enclosure 40% WWRR-5
60% WWRR-5
40% WWRR-11
40% WWRR-11ElectrochromicDaylight redirect
40% WWRR-11Electrochromic SWFixed shading
Space Fluorescent LED LED
LEDUser FeedbackDALI controlDirect/Indirect LtgDesk plug shut-off
LEDUser FeedbackDALI control
HVAC – Delivery VAV System High performance VAV with DCV
Core VAVPerim. HRV (0.75)Radiant Slab
Core UFADPerim. UFAD HRV Radiant SlabAtrium LungNatural Ventilation
Core UFADPerim. UFAD HRV Radiant SlabAtrium LungAssist Nat. Vent.
HVAC - Plant Gas Boiler (83%)Centrifugal Chiller
Cond. Gas Boiler (92%)Mag. Bearing Chiller
Cond. Gas Boiler (92%)Heat Recovery Chiller
Central heat pump Geo-ExchangeBiomass Peak Boiler
Central heat pump Geo-ExchangeGas Peak Boiler
Renewables No PV No PV No PVRooftop PVBIPV11% Total energy use
Rooftop PVBIPV5% Total energy use
New Building
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Comparative Features – Option 2 (LCC Neutral)
Item New Construction (BC)
Major Retrofit(ON)
Enclosure
40% WWRR-10.8Advanced Solar Control (Electrochromic glass)
33% WWROverall R-8
Space LEDAdvanced lighting control
LEDAdvanced lighting control
HVAC – DeliveryCore UFADPerim. UFAD HRV Radiant Slab
Core VAVPerim. DOAS HRVPerim. Active beams
HVAC - PlantHeat Recovery ChillersGas Condensing BoilersMagnetic Bearing Chiller
Exhaust Air Heat Recovery Chillers
District Energy HW and CHW
Renewables No PV 4% PV generation rooftop
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491
245
181
122
169 155
97
54
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Existing NECB 2015 Option 1 (Min. Design) Option 2 (LCC Neutral)
TEU
I (kW
h/m
2)
Major Retrofit (ON)
New Construction (BC)
Results – Total Energy Use Intensity (TEUI)
Partially occupied
TGSv3 Tier 3, CoV Rezone 2017 (100)*
TGSv3 Tier 4 (67)*
*Indicates estimates
Option 1(Min Design)
Option 2(LCC Neutral)
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64
33
26
1614
16
6.8
0.90
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Existing NECB 2015 Option 1 (Min. Design) Option 2 (LCC Neutral)
GH
GI (
kg/m
2)
Major Retrofit (ON)
New Construction (BC)
Comparative Results - GHGI
Partially occupied
2019 CoV VBBL (7.0)*
2025 CoV Rezoning (0.0)*
*Indicates estimates
Option 1(Min Design)
Option 2(LCC Neutral)
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Comparative Financial Results Option 2 (LCC Neutral)Low Carbon
New Construction (BC)
Incremental Capital Cost(year-2026)
0.7%
Incremental LCC (year-2026) -0.6%
Carbon Savings 87% vs. Opt 1(82% vs. Existing)
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Comparative Financial Results Option 2 (LCC Neutral)Low Carbon
New Construction (BC) Major Retrofit (ON)
Incremental Capital Cost(year-2026)
0.7% 2.5%
Incremental LCC (year-2026) -0.6% 0.3%
Carbon Savings 87% vs. Opt 1(82% vs. Existing)
38% vs. Opt 1(75% vs. Existing)
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87% Potential
13% Remain
Gap to Zero Carbon
Efficiency first
Strategic Fuel Switching
Installation of renewables on-site
Procurement of off-site renewables (e.g., RECs)
GHG Reduction
New Building Major Retrofit
75% Potential
25% Remain
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Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) and Offsets
Two options: buy from Canada or USA?—Canada is at least 2x more expensive—Canadian RECs and offsets are used in the next example
Electricity RECs
Natural Gas Carbon Offsets
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Comparative Financial ResultsOption 2 (LCC Neutral)Zero Carbon
New Building Major Retrofit
Low-carbon Zero carbon Low-carbon Zero
carbon
Incremental LCC
(year 2026)
-0.6% -0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
Carbon Savings 87% 100% 75% 100%
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4. Conclusions
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1. Technologies are Available Today
Envelope crucial to progress to passive HVAC systems
Cost Consultant
WSPS&E
Bldg. Sci
Elec
Mech
Architect
Owner
Efficiency first
Strategic fuel switching
Installation of renewables on-site
Procurement of off-site renewables (e.g., RECs)
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2. Location Matters
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3. Energy Price Gap
Sensitivity Analysis for Option 2 (LCC Neutral)
Fuel Cost - Baseline
Capital Cost
Carbon Price
Carbon Savings
O&M
Net Present Value (NPV)
Fuel Cost - Proposed
Relative Impact of Parameter (Standard Deviation)
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3. Energy Price Gap
— Testing uncertain variables in long term forecasts is important
— Based on today’s natural gas and electricity prices:— The carbon price won’t be the main driver in BC or ON— Carbon price needs to be well above avg. $150/tonne to make impact
— Business case improves when baseline’s become more stringent
OntarioEnergy Cost GHG
Emissions
Electricity
Natural Gas
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Can we make a business case
for Carbon Neutral Buildings?
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Life-cycle view is important for carbon neutral business case
Connection needed between developer & rate payer
4. New Construction - Business Case Exists
0.7% Capital Cost
Increase−0.6% LCC 87% GHG
Reduction
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2.5% Capital Cost Increase +0.3% LCC
75% GHG Reduction
($100/tonne)
4. Major Retrofit- More Motivation Needed
Motivations: • Commitment to Internal Policies / Goals
• Regulations (i.e. increasing baseline)
• Increase Carbon Pricing / Cap’n’Trade Schemes
• Public Perception (ex. Carbon Labelling)
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Carbon Neutrality Conclusions
1. Technologies are available to achieve 75%-90% reduction on most commercial sites.
2. Location matters—Climate dependent—GHG emission intensity in electricity grid
3. Energy cost gap—Natural gas vs. Electricity
4. Business Case — New Construction - business case already exists— Major Retrofit - more motivation required
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Thank you!
wsp.com