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eab.com

COE Forum

The Promise and Perils of

Innovation Competitive Challenges to the Traditional

Post-Secondary Education Model

2

August 28, 2014

Ottawa, ON

Carleton University

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Disruption Fatigue

Who Knew that Innovation Could Sound So Familiar?

Required Reading at Board Meetings and Planning Retreats

The Conventional Litany of the Broken University Business Model

• Uncontrolled cost increases

• Graduates lack critical skills

• Resistance to pedagogical innovation

• Irrelevant scholarship

• Tenure protects faculty from accountability

• Undergraduate tuition subsidizing faculty research

• Traditional universities captive to the prestige arms race—real change will come from radical, low-cost models


4

“The Status Quo is Unsustainable”

The Case for Government-Led Reform in Ontario

3 Cubed PSE Institutions as Centres of

Creativity, Competency, and Citizenship Equipped for the 21st Century

Academic Reform Policy Options for Improving the Quality and Cost-Effectiveness of Undergraduate

Education in Ontario

Commission on the Reform of Ontario's Public Services

• Refocus incentives on teaching

• Expand online course offerings

• Create three-year degrees

• Operate year-round

• Tie funding to outcome metrics

• Simplify credit transfer across colleges and universities

3x3

A Consistent Message Emerges

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The Bubble Argument in a Nutshell

Stuart M. Butler

From The Coming Higher-Ed Revolution (2012)

“For a growing number of Americans, a college degree is

something obtained only through enormous sacrifice

and indebtedness on their part or their parents', or a

dream that is entirely out of reach. Meanwhile, most

college leaders live in a bubble in which the costs of ever

more elaborate facilities, expanding administrative

bureaucracies, and high-profile professors with light

teaching loads can simply be passed on to customers in

the form of higher tuition.

But those days are about to end. Underneath the surface,

upstart institutions are perfecting radically new

education technologies and business plans at the same

time that young people and their parents are becoming

more frustrated with the traditional higher-ed model, and

more open-minded about alternatives. There is every

reason to suspect that, quite soon, these new institutions

will do to higher education what Sony did to radios and

Apple did to computing. Afterward, our colleges and

universities will never be the same. Few Americans, one

suspects, will look back in regret.”

College is

unaffordable…

And increasingly

inaccessible…

Because too much is

spent on facilities,

administration, and

faculty who don’t teach.

However, new

technologies offer

cheaper alternatives…

And students are

beginning to abandon

traditional institutions…

Which will force

universities to change

radically, or disappear.


6

The Incumbent’s Dilemma

Certain Downside, Speculative Upside for Exiting Prestige Arms Race

Clayton Christensen in a Nutshell:

“Be More Like BYU Idaho”

End tenure

Dismantle departments

Refocus research on pedagogy

Switch to fully online degrees

Enroll the marginally qualified

Reduce number of programs

Scale back merit-based aid

Cut back big-time sports

I’m Certainly Not Going First

“I understand that as an organization we could be a lot more efficient. But if I tried to make some of the changes that are being recommended, the accreditors would be all over me, I’d have a faculty revolt, and pretty quickly, I’d be out of a job.”

Provost Public Research University


7

Featured Models of Efficiency Impossible to

Emulate

Nascent Small-Scale Publics Built from Scratch

• Opened in 2005

• Single 16-story building

• No sports, gym, or dorms

• No tenure; 12-month contracts

• No departments

“From the beginning we decided we didn’t want this to be a traditional institution, because we in business who had been involved with other higher education institutions felt that everything took too long.”

Chair of Planning Committee

“The bad news at the beginning was that we had no faculty; the good news was that we had no faculty.”

Chancellor Stephen Lehmkuhle

• Opened in 2008 to serve nearby Mayo Clinic

• First class of 57 undergrads in 2011

• No departments

• Differentiated faculty model separates curricular design, teaching, and targeted projects

New STEM-Focused Institution Fills Unmet Need at Low Cost

Mayo Clinic Partner Becomes Learner-Focused System Branch

Source: Reinventing Higher Education: The Promise of Innovation, Ed. Kevin Carey,

Andrew P. Kelly, and Ben Wildavsky, Harvard Education Press, 2011.


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Not In Our League

Startups Hardly Look Like a Threat to Established Universities

• Peer-to-peer learning

• Unaccredited

• Non-profit, tuition-free

• 1,300 students

• Pay-by-the-course Gen Ed

• Unaccredited

• For-profit

• $99/month plus $39/course

• 38 entry-level college courses

• Free video micro-lectures

• Unaccredited

• Non-profit, tuition-free

• 3,000+ lectures available


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Opening the Floodgates

Sebastian Thrun’s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Goes Viral

A Disruptive Moment

Source: Steven Leckart, “The Stanford Education Experiment,” Wired

Magazine, April 2012.

Two Fashionable Brands One Hot Global Topic Truly Amazing Uptake

Celebrity Faculty

Dr. Sebastian Thrun Stanford Professor

Cutting-Edge Corporation

From Announcement

to Launch: 2 months

• Knowledge Representation

• Inference

• Machine Learning

• Planning and Game Playing

• Information Retrieval

• Computer Vision

• Robotics

Topics Covered

EnrolledStudents

Countries

160,000

195

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The EAB “MOOC Mania” Tour

The Hottest Topic on Campuses Across North America

Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.


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The Question Behind the Question

MOOC Questions Highlight Uncomfortable Issues for Higher Education

Why People Love MOOCs

Elite

What’s Wrong with Higher Education

How can we improve racial and socio-economic diversity?

How can we overcome capacity bottlenecks?

Are we becoming unaffordable to most students?

Is it possible to bring down cost per student?

Are we trapped by regional demographics?

How will we ever compete with wealthier, higher ranked universities?

Large-Scale

Free to

Students

Low Cost to

Provide

Global

Audience

Open

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Source: Allen and Seaman, “Grade Change: Tracking Online Education in the

U.S.” January 2014; “In 15 Years From Now Half of U Universities May Be in

Bankruptcy: My Surprise Discussion with @ClayChristensen,” Both Sides of

the Table, March 2013; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

Is Disruption Finally Here?

Students Have Real Alternatives

1.6

3.2

5.6

7.1

9.6%

18.2%

27.3%

33.5%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Students Taking at

Least One Online

Course (Millions)

Share of Students

Taking at Least One

Online Course Clayton Christensen

Harvard Business School

“In fifteen years from now half of US

universities may be in bankruptcy.”

New Competitors Enter the Ring

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Source: Press releases and news outlets; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

Hitting the Trough of Disillusionment

Another Confirmation of the Technology Hype Cycle

Spring 2012

Udacity, Coursera

and edX founded

July 2013

San Jose State pauses

partnership with Udacity due to

disappointing student results

Sept 2012

Colorado State Global Campus

accepts Udacity MOOC for credit

May 2013

Harvard faculty demand

greater oversight over

edX program

Feb 2013

Georgia Tech MOOC is first to be

canceled due to technical problems Jan 2013

San Jose State

partners with Udacity

on for-credit MOOC

Nov 2012

Gates announces

$3M in MOOC grants

Feb 2013

ACE recommends

5 MOOCs for credit

Fall 2011

Stanford faculty

launch open courses

April 2013

Amherst faculty reject

edX partnership

Nov 2013

Thrun: “We have a lousy product”

“There is no pedagogical

problem in our department

that JusticeX solves.…We

regard such courses as a

serious compromise of

quality of education, and,

ironically for a social justice

course, a case of social

injustice.”

Philosophy Department

San Jose State University


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Source: Duke University Report, February 2013

The Illusion of Scale

Vast Majority of MOOC Registrants Drop Out By First Assignment

Time

Enro

llment

Start Date

Half of registrants

are no-shows

First Assignment

Casual “lurkers”

move on

Typical MOOC Enrollment Pattern Case in Point

Bioelectricity, Fall 2012

Duke University

313

346

561

1,267

3,658

7,761

12,725

Certificate

Attempted Final

Took Week 4 Quiz

Took Week 1 Quiz

Took any quiz

Watched a video

Registered


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Source: Kevin Bell, “The Hijacking of MOOCs,” Inside Higher Ed, May 6, 2013

Let’s Not Kid Ourselves

“They’re mostly taken by educational

technologists, already-qualified

individuals, and Tom Friedman.”

Kevin Bell

Northeastern University

College of Professional Studies


16

Source: Breslow, DeBoer, Ho, Pritchard, Seaton, & Stump, “Studying Learning in the Worldwide

Classroom: Research into EdX’s First MOOC,” Research & Practice in Assessment, June 2013

The Indelible Middle Man

Even MOOCs Resorting to Coaching Model to Get Results

A Herculean Task

The Necessity of Course Assistants

4,356 Number of forum posts by Penn

professor Al Filreis in first MOOC

“The time demands, logistics, and politics of

developing a MOOC will bury you.”

Karen Head

Assistant Professor, Georgia Tech

Harvard professor asks alumni to help

moderate upcoming MOOC

New startup, “Course Pods,” brings live

tutoring to Udacity online courses

Udacity hires dozens of tutors to

support new partnerships Study finds offline help biggest

predictor of success in MOOC

Never Again


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Source: David Carr, “Udacity CEO Says MOOC ‘Magic Formula’ Emerging,” Information Week, Aug. 20, 2013.

The Unavoidable Cost of Success

"What we've learned is the computer program alone, a

MOOC alone is not likely to be a good educational medium

for large numbers of people, except for the truly highly self-

motivated. To be successful, we need people on the

ground to do things, to provide educational services."

Sebastian Thrun

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Not Disruptive Yet

Alternative Education Providers Not Attracting Traditional Students

Source: “Credit-for-MOOCs Effort Hits a Snag” Chronicle of Higher

Education. 2014 http://chronicle.com/blogs/wiredcampus/credit-for-

moocs-effort-hits-a-snag/49573

Hyp

e

Time

Dawn of a New Era?

ACE announces pilot program

allowing students to apply to

earn credit for MOOCS

Good Enough After All

14 MOOCs approved

for credit

Critical Institutional Buy-in

7 institutions allow students

to request credit for MOOCs

“What Are We Missing?”

Student requests for credit: 0

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The Unfulfilled Promise of MOOCs

Little of What We Hoped or Feared Has Come to Pass

Free

Credits

Job

Placement

Educational

Access

Better Outcomes

at Lower Cost

Elite University

Domination

Employers will hire people based on

performance in MOOCs

The poor and uneducated around the

world will have access to the best

instructors

Massive courses will reduce

instructor costs while technology can

maintain or improve outcomes

Lower-ranked institutions will disappear

as elites scale up free education

Students will take free courses from

top universities for credit

No institution grants credit to students

not enrolled and not paying tuition

Outside of computer programming,

few students are being placed in jobs

Vast majority of MOOC students

already have baccalaureate degree,

reside in wealthy countries

MOOCs are most effective when

students receive instructional support

MOOC providers rapidly expanding

partnerships with less elite institutions

The Promise The Reality


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MOOC 2.0

Achieving Institutional Goals


The Taming of the MOOC

What Universities Are Really Doing with MOOCs

Brand

Enhancement

Flipping the

Classroom

Scaling Up

Masters Programs

Lead

Generation

MOOC 1.0

“For the good of humanity”

Investing in

global publicity

Improving the quality,

cost, and capacity of on

campus instruction

Enabling large-scale, low-

cost revenue generating

degree programs

Recruiting students into

existing academic

programs


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How can we

compete

with free?

We need to

move everything

online.

We’ve never

had more

applications.


Students care

about the campus

experience.

“Great universities

will survive”

“Our business model

is doomed”

The Disruption Debate at Many Strategic Planning Retreats

MOOCs?

Disruption Revisited: A Dialogue of Extremes

Senior Leaders Divided between Alarmism and Complacency

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Online is not a market

Online is neither more nor less effective

Online is neither more nor less profitable

Online will not replace your campus

Online is not a strategy

Source: EAB interviews and analysis

From “Whether” to “How” We Will Go Online

Rising Above Misconceptions and Semantic Debates

Key Lessons in Starting a

Productive Conversation

Modality Debate Misses

Important Distinctions

Different populations require different

programmatic strategies

Costs and revenues driven primarily

by instructional model and class size

Wrap-around services and design

standards critical to student success

Institutional priorities and goals should

drive decisions about technology

Instruction and services will be

delivered in multiple modalities


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Source: William G. Bowen, At a Slight Angle to the Universe: The University in a Digitized, Commercialized Age, Romanes Lecture for

2000, University of Oxford, Oct. 17, 2000; Ibid., Higher Education in the Digital Age, Princeton University Press, 2013, p. 45

Breaking the Iron Triangle

Proponents Argue Online Learning Avoids Traditional Trade-Offs

Access

Cost Quality “I am today a convert… online learning, in

many of its manifestations, can lead to at

least comparable learning outcomes relative

to face-to-face instruction at lower cost.”

Bill Bowen

President Emeritus, Princeton University

Bill Bowen, Then and Now

2012

2000

“All the talk of using technology

to ‘save money by increasing

productivity’ has a hollow ring in the ears of

the budget officer who has to pay for the

salaries of a cadre of support staff, more and

more equipment, and new software licenses—

and who sees few offsetting savings.”


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Inactive Learning, in Person and Online

Few Benefits from Static Content Delivery

Quality at Scale

Group Discussion

Practice / Projects

Teaching Others

“Sage on the Stage” Generic Online Course

• 1-2 hours of lecture

• No way to “rewind”

• Physical constraints of classroom

• Students play passive role

• Readings and homework posted online

• No forum for interaction

• Email correspondence

• No additional value from technology

Less Engaging

More Engaging

Reading

Lecture


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The Unbundling of Faculty Roles

Analyzing the Instructional “Value Chain”

Academic Quality

Content

Creation

Content

Delivery

Learning

Assessment

Student

Support

Traditional

Model Faculty Member Faculty Member Faculty Member Faculty Member

In House

Alternative

Professional

Course

Designers

Lecture Capture

Independent

Competency

Tests

Peer Tutors

Outsourced Publisher

“Course in a

Box”

Adaptive

Learning

Technologies

Outsourced

Grading

On-Demand

Advising

Open Source Open

Educational

Resources

iTunes U Massive Open

Online Courses

Online Peer

Advising


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Setting a Bar for Design

With New Modalities Come New Expectations

Establishing Instructional Standards

The High Price of Poor Quality

Flawed Online Courses

Difficult to navigate

Broken links

ADA noncompliant

Components not

compatible with students’

and institutions’ software

Directions for course

activities unclear

Limited instructor-

student interaction

No direct link to

student services

Faculty Impact Student Impact

• Overwhelmed by

troubleshooting

problems

• Negative course

evaluations

• Dissatisfied with

course

• High failure rates

Roadmap for Encouraging

Consistent Course Standards

1

2

3

Setting Baseline

Standards

Pre-Launch

Screening

Targeted Evaluation

Review Prioritization

Continuous Improvement

Learning Objectives

Assessment

Instructional Materials

• High DFW rates

• Master Courses

• Part of fully online program

Longitudinal Effectiveness Analysis 4

Peer Review

Learner Interaction

Learner Support

Accessibility

Self-Review

Checklist


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Source: Thomas Cavanagh, “The Postmodality Era: How ‘Online Learning’ is Becoming ‘Learning’,” EDUCAUSE Game Changers, May 2, 2012

Serving the Multi-Modal Student

Flexible Formats Critical to Growth and Access

Access

Main Campus Students

(47,926)

Regional Campus Students

(5,251)

Secondary Campus Students

(2,472)

Web Students

(17,172)

“Multi-Modality” at the University of Central Florida

Head Count by Location, Fall 2010

60%

18%

7%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1% 2%

3%

4%

“Classifying a student as ‘main

campus’ or ‘extended campus’ or

‘distance’ becomes meaningless in

an environment where students take

whatever courses they need in

whatever location or modality best

suits their requirements at the time.”

Thomas Cavanagh

AVP of Distributed Learning

University of Central Florida

4%

32%

Classroom Online

Growth in Student Credit Hours

2010-2011


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EAB interviews and analysis

Relevance to Core Becoming Clearer

Technology Will Enhance, Not Replace, Undergraduate Experience

Self-paced online “catch

up” course after dropping

pre-med chemistry

Two online courses to

stay on track while

studying abroad

Online remedial

math course prior to

Fall start

Hybrid gen ed course with

online lectures and

discussion boards

Online summer course

to complete missing

pre-requisite

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Path to Graduation Eased by Online and Blended Coursework

“Yale College students in New Haven, subject to the approval of their DUSs

and their residential college deans, may take one (but not more than one)

online course for credit during their fall and spring academic semesters.”

Report of the Committee on Online Education, Dec. 2012

Even Yale


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Winning on All Fronts with Course Redesign

Alternative Model Expands Capacity, Improves Quality, and Costs Less

Quality at Scale

Source: “Physics Large Course Redesign Project Report,” UNC

Charlotte, Center for Teaching & Learning, Sept. 8, 2011.

Pre-Reading Pre-Quiz Lecture Practices Problem Solving Homework

Embedded Videos Mini-Tests

Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3

12% 45% 31% Reduction in DFW rate

Increase in enrollment cap

Cost savings per student

e-Tutor e-Tutor Pre-Lecture

Prep

TAs and Peer Mentors Faculty


30

Few Excuses Left

Course Redesign Gaining Traction Across Institutional Types and Disciplines

Source: The National Center for Academic Transformation (www.thencat.org); “Texas Wesleyan’s

Classroom.NEXT: 21st Century Learning in Action,” Campus Technology, April 10, 2012.

History • Historical Methods class won

“Radically Flexible Classroom” award

• Movable furniture and tech-enabled classrooms facilitate group work

Math • Emporium model: 1 hour in class,

2 hours in large computer lab

• Significantly improved completion and retention rates

• 19% instructional cost savings

English • From 3 hours to 1 hour in class per week

• Additional time spent in one-on-one sessions, peer tutoring, and multimedia lessons

Physics • Clickers and frequent

feedback opportunities keep students on track

• Students grouped based on answers to questions

“I always thought I was a pretty good lecturer, but … I had come to a realization that even my most successful students weren’t retaining a lot of the material I’d covered from one course to the next.”

Elizabeth Alexander Texas Wesleyan History Professor

“Do our students actually learn during class, or do they simply feverishly scribble down everything we say, hoping somehow to understand the material later?”

Eric Mazur Harvard Physics Professor

http://www.thencat.org/


31

Source: “Online College Students 2012,” Aslanian Market Research and The Learning House, Inc, 2012; EAB interviews and analysis

Toward a Blended Future

Multi-Modal Delivery Both More Popular and More Effective

Bullish on Hybrid

Anecdotal Evidence Backs Statistics on Role of Region

“About 80% of online students live

within 100 miles of a campus or

service center of the institution they

attend, and the large majority live

within 50 miles. Geographic

proximity is a major advantage in

attracting online students.”

“Online College Students 2012”

Aslanian Market Research

Even online students want to come to campus

and be part of our community

Students value our connections with local

employers and industry

Known regional brands hold signal value for

nontraditional students leery of slick for-profit

marketing pitches

A blended approach helps mitigate the

common persistence gap we see in fully

online programs

Within Your Reach

“Instruction combining online and face-to-face elements had a larger advantage relative to

purely face-to-face instruction than did purely online instruction.”

US Department of Education

Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning, 2010


32

Game-Based Learning on the Horizon

Motivating and Educating a Generation of Gamers

Quality at Scale

Source: James Paul Gee, “Games and 21st Century Learning,”

Games for Learning Institute, May 6, 2009; Jane McGonigal, “Be a

Gamer, Save the World,” The Wall Street Journal, Jan 22, 2011.

Built-in Assessment Contextual Learning Motivating Progression

• Players must solve problems, coordinate teams, and develop mastery to “beat the game”

• Completion signifies known competencies and objective achievements

• Players learn by doing, not reading or watching

• Puzzles placed in compelling, intuitive narrative

• Crowd-sourced “theorycrafting” for serious players

• Games must be accessible and fun, yet challenging

• Huge amount of data used to calibrate incentives

• “Experience points” and items provide social recognition

7 Million Years Total worldwide playtime Total playtime per day

8 Million Players Since 2009 Currently subscribed

300 Million Minutes

2 Billion Downloads


33

Transforming Commodity Courses

Breaking the Cost / Capacity Curve With Self-Paced Learning

Source: Bruce Upbin, “Knewton Is Building the World’s Smartest

Tutor,” Forbes Magazine, Feb. 22, 2012.

50%

25%

Dramatic Improvement in Remediation Results

66%

13%

75%

6%

Pass Rate Withdraw Rate

Before After

Finished 4 weeks early

Moved into regular freshman math

Adaptive Software Promotes Engagement and Provides Analytics

Activity-Based Learning Short, engaging, “real world” problems to solve

Achievement Points Uses game-like badge system to track progress and motivate students

Automated Assessment Built into activities and diagnostic exams, which adapt to performance

Performance Dashboards Instructors focus face time on biggest stumbling blocks

Remedial Math Pilot 5,000 students


34

The Platform Wars

Big Data Fueling Emerging Market for Education’s “Google Equivalent”

Source: Kevin Carey, “Revenge of the Underpaid Professors,” The

Chronicle of Higher Education, May 20, 2012.

Kevin Carey, New America Foundation

“It's hard to predict who will win the platform wars, but it's easy to predict that someone will. The costs of building an online platform are negligible… The rewards of building the winning platform are vast, as Instagram found when it was bought by Facebook for $1 billion.”

The Power of a Platform

Next-Gen Learning Platform

• Course administration

• Multimedia content delivery

• Live collaboration tools

• Real-time performance data

• Predictive analytics

• Adaptive assessment

• Automated advising

“In 50 years, there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them.”

Sebastian Thrun

How Many Providers Do We Need?

Class2Go


35

Building Assessment In

Instructor Dashboards Provide Real-Time Outcome Data,

Predictive Analytics

Source: Candace Thille, “Changing the Production Function in Higher

Education,” American Council on Education, March 2012.


36

A Governor’s Dream

Competency-Based Alternative Helps Meet Completion Goals


“Indiana’s 8th State University”

• Governor Mitch Daniels commissioned Western Governors University – Indiana in 2010

• No state allocation; initial funding from Gates & Lumina Foundations

• WGU students are eligible for state aid

• Critical in meeting completion goals

“Online. Accelerated. Affordable. Accredited.”

• No “courses” or “credits,” just competency exams

• No traditional instructors; 1300+ faculty a mix of assessment designers, subject matter experts, and student mentors

• 46,000 students nationwide

• Average age = 36

• 70% work full time

• 30% annual growth

• Founded by 19 governors in 1997

• Tuition: $5,780 per year; hasn’t been increased since 2007

• Online, self-paced instruction expands access to non-traditional students

• New subsidiaries in Indiana, Washington, and Texas

An Appealing Alternative to For-Profits

A Radically New Instructional Model


37


Radically Different Approaches to Success

“Inverted” Delivery Model Emerging Challenge to Tradition

Experts Determine Competency

Requirements

Physical Interaction Limited to

Clinical Placements

Dedicated Student Mentors

Conduct Regular Check-Ins

Flexible Content (No Courses)

and Modular Curriculum

Assessments Automated or Conducted

Through Web Proctoring

Extensive Recognition of Prior Learning Through

Competency Assessment

Faculty Design Course, Lecture, Mentor,

and Assess Students

Physical Interaction 3-4 Hours per

Week in Class

Coaching Possible from Graduate Assistants,

Tutoring Center

Rigid Course Structure

Midterm and Final Exams Hand-Graded

by Faculty, TAs

Option to Test Out of Limited

Introductory Courses

Typical University Program


38

Beginnings of a Marketplace for Digital Badges

Will Micro-Certifications Replace the Symbolic Power of Diplomas?

Integrating Academic and Career Preparation

Source: www.DMLCompetition.net; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

What’s a Digital Badge?

• Collectable, sharable certifications of specified competencies

• Acquired by examination, demonstration, proof-of-experience

• Help students find a job, collaborator, or social media followers

What’s Needed for a Liquid Market?

Government Affinity Groups

Industry Associations

Individual Employers

Proof-of-Concept Funding MacArthur Foundation launches $2M

contest for badge design

Open IT Standards Mozilla developing interoperability

specs for badge formats

Credible Sponsors Famed organizations designing and

recognizing badges

Mozilla’s Open

Badges

Infrastructure

makes it easy to

issue, display,

and manage

badges across

the web.

1

2

3

http://www.dmlcompetition.net/

https://wiki.mozilla.org/Badges/About


39

Using Badges as Infrastructure for

Learning Outcomes

Early Adopter Rethinking Assessment in a Digital Age


Internship Deliverables

Recorded Presentations

Experimental Results and Analysis

E-Portfolio

Suzy Smith

Strategic Management

Interpersonal Communication

Experimentation & Inquiry

Sustainable Agriculture & Food Systems

• Agriculture students will earn badges based on competencies, skills, classes, and internships

• Mix of pre-determined standards and self-assessment with peer review

• Intended to capture learning that occurs outside of traditional classroom setting and beyond graded assignments

• Operationalizes emphasis on learning outcomes

Peer, Mentor, and Faculty Feedback Evidence Instruction

Beyond Mere Grades New Major Building

Learner-Centric Toolkits


40

The Path Dependency of Total Cost

Reducing Degree Costs through Articulation and Faster Time to Completion

Price

Source: College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013.

Typical Option

3 + 2

“On Time” Graduation

Six Years at Public University

$137 K

Two Years at Private Two Years at CC

$106 K

Four Years at Public University

$91K

2 + 2 Private

Three Years in BA Program Two Years in Master’s

$100 K Six years of room and board significantly increase total cost

By far the cheapest option, in part due to fewer years on campus

With this option, degree from private university costs less than six-year degree from public

$63 K

Two Years at Public Two Years at CC

2 + 2 Public

1 Assumes in-state tuition at public four-year ($8,244) and two-year ($2,963), tuition at private university ($28,500) and room / board while at the public four-year ($8,887) and at the private four-year ($10,089)

Typical Option

Four Years at Private University

$179 K


41

Competing on Price with High-Demand Courses

An Experiment in Outsourced General Education

StraighterLine – At a Glance

Business Model • Most affordable provider of online general

education courses • 30-50 courses account for 1/3 of all higher ed Pricing • $99 a month + $39 course registration fee • $999 a year for 10 courses Enrollment • 1,000 students in 2010; 3,000 students in 2011 Next Steps • ETS iSkills and CLA assessments for a fee • ACE “Recommended Credit” for free

Saylor.org courses + StraighterLine assessment

Few Official Partners…

…And 250+ Have Accepted Credits

…But Some Early Incumbent Adopters


42

Do You Know Where Those Credits Came From?

Growing Opportunities for “Credit Laundering”

Swirling Students Bringing Questionable Credits

Less Selective Private Masters

University

Highly Selective Research University

Public Research University


43

Canada’s Online University Not Yet a Threat

Push Toward Efficiency and Access a Matter of Policy

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates; Education

Advisory Board interviews and analysis.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment in Canada

Adult Students Having Little Impact on Enrollment Growth

Under 22

22 to 24

25 to 34

35+

Online and Scalable • 160 faculty and 38,000 students • 98% of students are employed

A Complementary Relationship • Online courses start on demand • Lessens burden on traditional institutions


44

Unbundling the Degree

The Emergence of Course-by-Course Competition


Through Forced Articulation Agreements, a “Market for Credits” Is Beginning to Appear

Home Institution: Research University

Local

College

For-Profit Online

Program

Online Competency

Based Program

Regional Public

University

Semester Abroad at

Foreign Institution

MOOC

iTunes U

Summer Program

at Private College

Winter Intersession at School in Hometown


45

Enrollment Shifts Blurring Institutional Barriers

Innovation Centered Around Reaching New Kinds of Students

Regional University

On

line

Scal

e D

evel

op

er

Co

ntin

uin

g Edu

cation

Pro

grams

Regional Branch Campuses

Niche Online Certificate

Loca

l In

du

stry

Par

tner

ship

4-year B

accalaureate

Commercial Research Parks

Honors Programs

Local College

For-Profit Provider

Prestigious Research U.


46

No Longer a Monopoly Market

Incumbents Losing Control Over Previously Exclusive Territory

Content

Credit

Credentials

Community

2000 2014 2008

Val

ue

in H

igh

er E

du

cati

on

Open courseware from elite schools

User-curated encyclopedias

Niche blogs, podcasts, and portals

Digital media distribution

Outsourced general education units

2+2 transfer agreements

Credit banks

Accelerated completion providers

Digital badges

Employer-defined competencies

Robust online collaboration tools

Virtual labs

Integration with employers

Project-based instruction

Problem-based research

Online Course Consortia

Elite MOOC certificates


47

The Bigger Issues Behind “MOOC Mania”

Critical Strategic Concerns for Institutional Leadership

The Current MOOC Debate

Governors

“Can we use MOOCs as

low cost alternatives?”

• Declining public funding

• New student markets

• Evolving student preferences

• Challenges to affordability

• New types of competitors

• Student success challenges

Boards

“Will students abandon

us for MOOCs?”

Faculty

“Will MOOCs make

us expendable?

• Innovative program designs

• Improved instructional quality

• Economies of scale

• Regulatory risk

• Faculty development

• Student support services

Administrators

“Will we fall behind if we

don’t do a MOOC?”

Sustaining Tuition Revenue Building an Online Strategy 1 2

The True Agenda


48

EAB Contact Information

Carleton University

Matthew Pellish

Senior Director,

Strategic Research

202-266-6215

[email protected]

Replace with

Headshot

Donna Hay

Assoc. Director,

Strategic Research

202-909-4096

[email protected]

Replace with

Headshot www.eab.com

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