The Progressive Movement II: Initiatives and

Referendums

- Reader available after class, $20- Discussion ?s at end

The Progressive Movement II:Initiatives and Referendums

Roots of the Movement

How Initiatives Work•Formal Mechanisms

•Political Realities

Perspectives on the Process

Roots of the Movement

Coming to power in the wake of scandals at the turn of the century, “Progressives” were:•Moderate Republicans who split with

the rest of their party.

•Businessmen who wanted to bring technical expertise into government.

•Political reformers.

Roots of the Movement

After successfully prosecuting Abe Ruef, the boss of San Francisco, Hiram Johnson was elected governor in 1910.

He brought direct democracy to the constitution in 1911:

•Initiative

•Referendum

•Recall

Roots of the Movement

Direct and Indirect InitiativeStates with initiative provisions (27)States without initiative provisions (23)

Roots of the Movement How does California’s direct

democracy differ from other states?

•Placing an initiative on the ballot is relatively easy here.

•California’s initiatives are binding and the legislature cannot amend them.

•Especially since 1978, we use the process much more than most states.

How Initiatives Work:Formal Mechanisms

Basic definitions.

•An initiative is a proposal for a new statute or constitutional provision that is wholly drafted by a citizen and voted on by the state electorate.

•A petition referendum delays and puts up for vote a law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor.

How Initiatives Work:Formal Mechanisms

A compulsory referendum is a constitutional amendment or a bond that 2/3 of the Assembly and Senate put on the ballot. •These are consensus issues that generate

campaigns costing only $300,000 and pass 69% of the time.

•Initiatives are contentious issues that generate $7.4 million in spending on average and most of them fail.

How Initiatives Work:Formal Mechanisms

Step #1: Circulation. All it takes is an idea and $200 to officially register to circulate an initiative for 150 days.

993. Confinement of Veal Calves and Pregnant Farm Pigs. Initiative Statute. FAILED to qualify.

994. Confinement of Pregnant Farm Pigs. Initiative Statute. FAILED to qualify.

1002. Referendum Petition to Overturn Domestic Partner Law. FAILED to qualify.

(SA03RF0081) “The Worker’s Compensation Reform Act” ADDED to Initiatives Pending with the Attorney General.

Circulating: 25 Initiatives in circulation4 Propositions qualified for the March 2, 2004, Primary Election ballot

from www.ss.ca.gov

How Initiatives Work:Formal Mechanisms

Step #2. Qualification. Requires signatures equal to X% of voters in the last gubernatorial race.

•Constitutional Initiative: 8% or 753,079

•Statutory Initiative: 5% or 470,675

•Petition Referendum: 5% or 470,675

How Initiatives Work:Formal Mechanisms

Step #3. Vote. It takes a simple majority to approve, and an initiative can only be undone by another init.

How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities

First Law of Initiative Qualification: Without $1-2 million, you cannot get anything on the ballot, no matter how popular.•Example. Even the furor over the killing

of Polly Klass by career criminal Richard Allen Davis did not provide enough signatures to qualify 1994’s Proposition 184, “Three Strikes and You’re Out.”

How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities

Second Law of Init. Qualification: If you have $1-2 million, you can get absolutely anything on the ballot, no matter how wacky. •Example. Proposition 6, “The

Prohibition of Horse Slaughter and Sale of Horsemeat for Human Consumption Act of 1998,” qualified and passed.

The Sad Eyed Arab...                                                        

                                  

     Too Bad NobodyTook Him Home...

How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities

Big Money•In 1998, there were a dozen initiatives.

Total spending on them was $193 million, with $92 million spent on Prop. 5

Money Leads to Doubt. •Conventional wisdom is that campaign

spending against an initiative has much more influence than spending in favor of an initiative.

How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities

Election Trends.•About two thirds of initiatives lose, but

proponents are doing a bit better lately.

•The more people learn about an initiative, the less they like it:•Only two initiatives have passed when they

originally polled under 50%.

•Rule of thumb is that if an item doesn’t poll at 80%, leave it out of your initiative package

Perspectives on the Process

Why do the “people” and lawmakers disagree? Two Constituencies Problem

•The Legislature is apportioned to represent residents. Only 16.2% had household incomes of $40-75,000, and 32.4% were Latino in 2000.

•The electorate for an initiative is voters. 36% middle class, 13% Latino in 2000.

Perspectives on the Process

How do voters make their choices?•Nobody reads the entire 350 page

ballot pamphlet or initiative texts.

•But the big money spent on initiatives does provide political information.

•As UCSD’s Skip Lupia showed, people make decisions that reflect their true preferences by following cues from supporters and opponents.

Perspectives on the Process Is there any room for compromise?

•An initiative is a take it or leave it offer, leaving voters with only a choice between the status quo and the proposal.

•They are almost always policy changes too extreme for the legislature to pass.

•UCSD’s Liz Gerber showed that the threat of an initiative brought policy in line with people’s demands.

Discussion Questions Eugene Lee presents a typology of

initiatives. Are some types more legitimate than others?

Does the fact that all initiatives rely on an “initiative industry” of paid signature gatherers matter?

Are voters sufficiently informed to make good decisions on ballot propositions. Do television ads hurt or help?