the prevalence and crash involvement of unlicensed drivers in queensland barry watson presentation...

The prevalence and crash involvement of unlicensed drivers in Queensland

Barry Watson Presentation to Victorian Chapter of the ACRS: 21 May 2012

CRICOS No. 00213J

Copyright Notice:These materials are subject to Copyright and their use is permitted for individual study purposes. They may not be reproduced in any other manner for any other purpose without the express permission of the Lecturer.

Acknowledgements

MAIC funded program of research administered by Transport & Main Roads (TMR) and assisted by Queensland Police Service (QPS):

– TMR: Sam Bailey, Nerida Leal, Pam Palmer and Sally Samuals

– QPS: Kelly Sultana, Senior Sergeant Dan Heenan

CARRS-Q research team:

– Dr Kerry Armstrong, Angela Watson, Kerrie Livingstone, Adrian Wilson, Peter Barraclough

Overview

Road safety implications of unlicensed driving

Present results from two studies conducted in Queensland examining:

- the crash involvement of unlicensed drivers and the risks associated with the behaviour

- the prevalence of unlicensed driving using a roadside survey method

Countermeasure options

Road safety implications of unlicensed driving

Undermines licensing system- reduces ability to monitor & manage drivers- undermines deterrent effect of licence loss

Impact on road toll - crashes involving at least one unlicensed driver

account for 10% of deaths in Aust. and 20% in USA

Link with high risk driving- drink driving, speeding, motorcycle use- more deviant, repeat offending

Sources: Griffin & DeLaZerda, 2000; Scopatz et al., 2003; Watson, 1997, 2004a

Study 1: Analysis of crash data

Rationale • To examine the crash involvement patterns of

unlicensed drivers and compare them with those of licensed drivers

Sources: Watson, 2004a,c; Watson & Steinhardt, 2006, 2007; Watson et al., in preparation

Method (1)

Analysed six years of Queensland road crash data (2003 - 2008)

Compared unlicensed drivers and licensed drivers involved in crashes

Included car, truck and bus drivers and motorcycle riders

Examined all crash types, but focused on fatal and serious injury crashes

Not all categories of unlicensed driver are individually identified in database

Used quasi-induced exposure method to estimate exposure and risk of involvement in a crash for different groups− previously used by DeYoung, Peck & Helander

(1997) in California

− based on the assumption that the innocent parties in a multi-vehicle crash are incidental to the event and hence represent a random sample of drivers

− used unit numbers assigned in database to identify drivers considered at fault by the police

Method (2)

Quasi-induced exposure method:− Involvement rate (IR) = % at fault

− % innocent

− Crash (ratio) rate = IR for unlicensed drivers− IR for

licensed drivers

− Introduces in a range of potential biases related to:limiting analysis to multi-vehicle crasheshow the police assess fault in crashes

Method (3)

Study 1: Results (1)

1. Do unlicensed drivers engage in more risky driving than other drivers?

Overall crash involvement

During the period, unlicensed drivers represented:– 8.9% of drivers involved in fatal crashes

– 5.1% of drivers involved in serious injury (hospitalisation) crashes

– 3.1% of drivers involved in minor injury crashes

– 3.8% of drivers in property damage only (PDO) crashes

– 3.8% of drivers involved in total crashes

Serious casualty crashes by involvement of alcohol & drugs: Queensland 2003-08

Licensed Unlicensed0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

7.8

35.9

92.2

64.1

PresentNot present

2 (df1) = 2309.1, p < .001

%

Source: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR

Serious casualty crashes by involvement of excessive speed: Queensland 2003-08


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4.1

16.4

95.9

83.6

Speeding

Not speeding

2 (1) = 863.1, p < .001

%


Serious casualty crashes by type of vehicle: Queensland 2003-08


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10082.8

74.5

10.7

22.8

6.52.7

2 (2) = 390.6, p < .001

%


Serious casualty crashes by unit considered at fault: Queensland 2003-08


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

60.2

87.6

39.8

12.4

At fault

Not at fault

2 (1) = 787.5, p < .001

%



2. Is unlicensed driving associated with a higher crash risk compared to legal driving? Risk of involvement in a crash

Severity of crashes

Risk of involvement in a multi-vehicle crash by driver type for Queensland: 2000-04

Driver Group Fatal Crashes Total Crashes

Licensed drivers1 1.00-

n=1268

1.00-

n=163298

All unlicensed drivers 4.08(2.03 – 8.18)

n=88

3.02(2.76 – 3.32)

n=4311

Never licensed drivers9.47

(6.07 – 14.78)n=387

Disqualified/suspended drivers

2.85(2.51 – 3.23)

n=2167

Other unlicensed drivers3.17

(2.63 – 3.82)n=1055

Inappropriate class2.15

(1.70 – 2.72)n=557

Expired licence drivers2.54

(1.58 – 4.08)n=145

1. Primary reference categorySource: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR

Severity of crashes involving licensed and unlicensed drivers: Qld 2003-08


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

21.3

29.8

78.7

70.2

Serious casualty crashes

Other crashes

2 (df1) = 359.6, p < .001

%


Risk of involvement in a serious casualty crash relative to a minor crash in Qld: 2003-08

Type of driver Odds ratio risk 99% CI

All licensed drivers1 1.00 ----

All unlicensed drivers 1.57 1.48 – 1.67

Inappropriate class 5.37 4.03 – 7.16

Never licensed 1.65 1.41 – 1.92

Disqualified/suspended 1.50 1.37 – 1.64

Expired 1.27 1.04 – 1.55

Other unlicensed 1.44 1.27 – 1.64

1. Primary reference categorySource: Queensland Road Crash Database, TMR


3. Do unlicensed drivers represent a homogenous group? Unlicensed drivers involved in serious casualty

crashes are more likely to:- be male (81% vs 65%)- be under 24 yrs of age (48% vs 26% )- ride motorcycles (23% vs 11%)- be involved in crashes at night (47% vs 27%) and on

weekends (34% vs 25%)- be involved in single vehicle crashes (58% vs 27%)- be involved in crashes involving risky behaviours


3. Do unlicensed drivers represent a homogenous group? Never licensed and disqualified/suspended drivers

emerged as problem sub-groups Important differences between unlicensed drivers

and riders crash involvement

Proportion of unlicensed controllers in fatal crashes in Queensland

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

5

10

15

20

25

Motorcycle Riders Drivers All

% U

nlic

ense

d

Year


Proportion of unlicensed controllers in total crashes in Queensland

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080

2

4

6

8

10

12

% U

nlic

ense

d

Year



Proportion of controllers involved in serious casualty crashes, by alcohol/drugs

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

LicensedUnlicensed


Proportion of controllers involved in serious casualty crashes, by speeding


LicensedUnlicensed

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


Differences between unlicensed drivers and motorcycle riders

Many similarities in the crash involvement patterns of unlicensed drivers and riders- over-representation in serious crashes

- these crashes are more likely to involve high-risk behaviours

Long-term crash involvement of unlicensed drivers appears stable, compared to riders

Suggests that countermeasures have not had a differential impact on unlicensed drivers


Study 2: Roadside licence check survey

Study Aims

To estimate the prevalence of unlicensed driving on Queensland roads

Compare findings with data relating to the crash involvement of unlicensed drivers

Provide additional information as to whether or not unlicensed drivers are over-represented in crashes

Method (1)

Survey conducted in conjunction with routine Random Breath Testing of heavy vehicle and normal traffic, from 18th February 2010 to 24th April 2010 between the hours of 8:00am and 10:00pm

− Heavy vehicles not specifically targeted

− Other vehicles stopped randomly during operation

The majority of the data was collected in March 2010 (47.8%), with the remainder divided fairly evenly between February (24.1%) and April (28.1%) 2010

Method (2)

3,112 drivers were intercepted and surveyed by Queensland Police Officers

Drivers not producing a licence advised to present it later at a Police Station

No survey-related follow-up action taken in relation to these drivers, although this would have occurred as part of normal policing practice

Materials (1)

Data collection form developed by CARRS-Q with Queensland Police Service and Transport & Main Roads, consisting of:

Vehicle information

− vehicle registration number

− status of the vehicle registration (e.g., current, expired)

Driver information

− customer reference number (CRN) on the licence card

− driver’s date of birth (collected for cross checking to ensure integrity and accuracy of data entry)

− Queensland, interstate or international driver licence

Driver information cont’d:

− whether or not licence was produced at the time of interception

− licence status; includes whether driver has an invalid licence status, driver charged with unlicensed driving at the time of interception or if driver holds a learner licence

− reason for driver being unlicensed; (court disqualification, demerit point suspension, State Penalties Enforcement Registry (SPER) suspension, expired, learner unaccompanied, never held a licence, incorrect class of vehicle, or unknown)

− driver’s full name and date of birth (if failed to produce their physical licence card) - used to check whether they possess a valid licence recorded within the TRAILS database;

− the result of any random breath test performed, e.g., negative or positive

Materials (2)

Results (1)

Initial Analysis

3,008 (96.7%) of the 3,112 drivers intercepted, produced a licence at the roadside, whereas 104 (3.3%) did not

Of these 3,008 drivers that did produce a licence, 22 (0.7%) were identified by the police at the time to be driving unlicensed or unaccompanied

Within this group:

− nine held an expired licence (0.3%)

− four held a SPER suspension

− one was operating a vehicle with the wrong class of licence

− eight were driving unaccompanied with only a Learner Licence (0.3%)

Results (2)

Of the 104 drivers who did not produce a licence roadside, nine (8.7%) were identified by the police at the time as driving unlicensed or unaccompanied

Within this group:

− one held an expired licence (1.0%)

− four held a SPER suspension (3.8%)

− one was operating a vehicle with the wrong class of licence (1.0%)

− three were driving unaccompanied with only a learner licence (2.9%)

Results (3)

Interim summary

3,081 (99%) of drivers intercepted by the police were identified as having a valid licence

31 (1.0%) drivers were unlicensed (n = 23) or unaccompanied (n = 8)

Of these 31 drivers, 29 held a Queensland driver’s licence, while one held a NSW licence (expired) and one held a Tasmanian licence (learner accompanied)

Roadside licence check surveys conducted by Police region

49% of surveys were conducted in the greater Brisbane area, encompassing the Metropolitan South and Metropolitan North regions

Police Service Regions involvement

Regions involved Population % of total% of drivers

Pop* intercepted

Far Northern 276,515 6.7 11.7

Metropolitan North 656,725 15.820.9

Metropolitan South 724,089 17.528.2

North Coast 848,54420.5 7.5

Northern 282,306 6.8 9.6

South Eastern 842,057 20.313.7

Southern 513,19112.4 8.9

* Excludes Central Queensland Region which did not participate

Roadside licence check surveys conducted by days of the week

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Day of the week

Perc

enta

ge %

Survey data collected by Qld Police Services was sent to TMR to match participant information with official licensing records

Data matching undertaken by TMR identified an additional nine drivers not validly licensed at the time of the survey

During the roadside licence check, nine drivers produced a seemingly valid licence to police, but were technically unlicensed at the time of interception

Of these additional unlicensed drivers:

− six had a SPER suspension

− two had a demerit suspension

− one had an immediate licence disqualification

Additional Analysis (1)

Additional Analysis (2)

Summary

After matching roadside licence checks to the TRAILS database:– 29 drivers were determined to be unlicensed

(1.0%) – 11 were driving unaccompanied on a Learner

Licence (0.4%)

Results by Police Service Regions

Regions involved % of total % of drivers % of unlic.

Pop* intercepted detected

Far Northern 6.7 11.7 3.0

Metropolitan North 15.8 20.90.8

Metropolitan South 17.5 28.20.6

North Coast 20.5 7.5 0.0

Northern 6.8 9.6 2.0

South Eastern 20.3 13.71.0

Southern 12.4 8.9 0.0

* Excludes Central Queensland Region which did not participate

The overall sample contained predominantly male drivers (60.5%), with ages ranging from 16 to 87 years old (M = 42.52, SD = 15.14)

No gender differences were found between the licensed and unlicensed drivers/riders

A slightly higher proportion of the unlicensed drivers/riders had at least one speeding infringement, compared to licensed drivers/riders, but this difference was not statistically significant

105 drivers (3.4%) were driving an unregistered vehicle. Of these, five were also unlicensed/unaccompanied, while two were unaccompanied learners

Unregistered vehicles represented 2.9% of all vehicles observed in 2010 observational study undertaken by CARRS-Q

Other findings

Study implications (1)

As noted earlier, the crash statistics indicate that unlicensed drivers represent:

− 3.8% of drivers involved in crashes of all severity

− 5.1% of those involved in serious injury crashes (hospitalisation crashes)

− 8.9% of those involved in fatal crashes

This study provides confirmation that unlicensed drivers are over represented in official crash statistics (both in total and more severe crashes)

This preliminary investigation provides important exposure data relating to the incidence of unlicensed driving, but needs further replication

Study implications (2)

The rate of unlicensed driving found in the study was lower than the 2.4% found in a 1991 study conducted in NSW (also conducted in conjunction with RBT)

This discrepancy may be due to underlying differences in the extent of unlicensed driving across the two jurisdictions over time, or reflect differences in the representativeness of the two samples

It is unclear whether the sampling strategy utilised in this study is truly representative of the Queensland driving population

The current study may more accurately reflect behaviours in the Brisbane metropolitan area with almost 50.0% of the surveys being conducted in Metro North and Metro South police regions

Further investigations using an enhanced methodology is required to establish the representativeness of the data

Countermeasure options Administrative policies

- Compulsory carriage of licence- Requirement to surrender revoked/suspended licences- Valid licence required to register motor vehicles- Restricted licences available for work purposes

Enforcement practices- Targeted licence checking e.g. using Automatic

Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology- Random licence checking- Incorporating licence checking into other activities e.g.

random breath testing (RBT)- Improving roadside access to licensing information

Shift Information

Date:

Start Time:

Finish Time:

Location Information

Region (where licence survey is being conducted)

Road:

Suburb:

Site Safety Officer Information

Officer Name:

Officer Station:

Officer Rego #:

RBT Information

Total number of RBT's conducted in this location

APPENDIX A: DRIVER LICENCE INTERCEPTION SURVEY

Driver Licence Interception Covering Report

APPENDIX A cont’d: DATA COLLECTION FORM

Vehicle Details

Rego # Rego Valid □ Yes □ No

Driver Details

Licence Produced □ Yes □ No Interstate:

Licence # D.O.B.

Unlicensed/Unaccompanied □ Yes □ No □ Not Determined

If unlicensed / unaccompanied give reason:

□ Court Disqualification □ Expired

□ Points Suspension □ Never held licence

□ SPER Suspension □ Incorrect class of vehicle

□ Learner Unaccompanied □ Unknown

If unlicensed / unaccompanied, please fill in these fields

Surname:

Given Name:

Driver Prosecuted □ Yes □ No □ N/A

Roadside RBT □ Neg □ Pos □ N/A

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