the planet is changing, but do we really care? · - forstner and wittmann, 1979 studies on economy...
TRANSCRIPT
The Planet is Changing,but do we Really Care?
Serge LepageEnvironment CanadaLa Biosphère
BiosphèreCanada
The planet is changing very rapidly
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
Carried out between 2001 and 2005 toassess the consequences of ecosystemchanges for human well-being andestablish the scientific basis for actionsneeded to enhance the conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems andcontributions to human well-being.
1300 experts from 95 countries
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
Over the past fifty years, humans havechanged ecosystems more rapidly andextensively than in any comparable period oftime in human history, largely to meetrapidly growing demands for food, freshwater, timber, fiber and fuel.
This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity oflife on Earth.
The changes made to the ecosystemshave contributed to substantial net gains inhuman well-being and economic development, but these gains have beenachieved at growing costs in the form of the form of many ecosystems services (fresh water, fisheries, water and air purification, climate regulation, etc.).
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
- 25% of Earth’s terrestrial surface is coveredby cultivated systems (30% of landscape in croplands, shifting cultivation, confined livestockproduction or freshwater aquaculture);
- 25% of the Mangroves disappeared in thelast 25 years;
- 20% of the coral reefs have beendestroyed and another 20% degraded in the last several decades;
- 3 to 6 times as much water is held in reservoirs as in natural rivers;
- On average, 40 to 50% of accessible naturalwater is presently used, and over 100% in many areas (Middle East, North Africa, Southern US);
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
- Since 1960, flows of biologically available nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems havedoubled and that of phosphorus tripled;
- More than half of all synthetic nitrogenfertilizer ever used on the planet hasbeen used since 1985;
- 10 to 30% of mammal, bird and amphibians species are threatened with extinction;
- Genetic diversity is declining globally;
- Since 1750, the atmospheric concentrationof CO2 has increased by 32%, from 280 to 376 ppm (in 2003), 60% of that since 1959.
Other studies, similar conclusions
- ArcticNet, 2005; ICCT, 2005- WWF, 2005; Thomas et al., 2004- Pound and Pushendorf, 2004- IPCC, 2001
- Murphy and Weiss, 1992
« Predicted local and regional climate scenarios promise at the very least adifferent natural world. The speed atwhich climate may change assures thatthis different world will be one that is biologically less rich and less stable thanour present one. It will be a world less able to absorb and ameliorate ourinevitable future mistakes in land andresource use, a natural world that will, inmany ways, seem highly unpredictable andterribly unfamiliar. »
Back to the… past
Plato, 360 B.C., The Laws, Book VIII
« Water is the greatest element of nutritionin gardens, but is easily polluted (…) itmust therefore be protected by law. Andlet this be the law: - If any one intentionally pollutes the water of another, whether the water of a spring, orcollected in reservoirs, either by poisonoussubstances, or by digging or by theft, letthe injured party bring the cause beforethe wardens of the city, and claim inwriting the value of the loss; if the accusedbe found guilty of injuring the water by deleterious substances, let him not only paydamages, but purify the stream or the cistern which contains the water, in such manner as the laws of the interpreters order the purification to be made by the offender in each case. »
Studies on pollution
- Smith, 1893; Newell, 1897
- Faust, 1964; Rudd, 1970- Warren, 1971; Friedlander, 1973- Fried, 1975- Forstner and Wittmann, 1979
Studies on economy- Victor, 1972; Markusen, 1975 - Bernstein, 1981
Studies on ecosystem health
- Kutchenberg, 1985; - Schaeffer et al., 1988; Rapport, 1992 - De Leo and Levin, 1997
The Bruntland Report (1987)
Key concepts for sustainability
- Today’s needs should not comprise the ability of future generations to meet their needs;
- A direct link exists between the economyand environment;
- The needs of the poor in all nations must be met;
- In order for our environment to beprotected, the economic conditions of theworld’s poor must be improved;
- In all our actions, we must consider the impact upon future generations.
Studies on global warming
- Bart and Titus, 1984; Lauermann, 1985- Keepin, 1986; Woodwell, 1986- Wigley and Raper, 1987
- Sultan et al., 1980
«To test the possible climatic impact ofchanges in tropospheric chemical composition, a zonal energy-balanceclimate model has been combined with avertically averaged tropospheric chemicalmodel. (…) This coupled climate-chemicalmodel indicates that global climate is sensitive to changes in emissions of CO, NOx, and CH4 and that future increases inthese emissions could augment global
warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2.»
Studies on global warming
- G.S. Benton, 1970
« The effect of carbon dioxide is to increase the earth's temperature by absorbing outgoing terrestrial radiation. Recent numerical studies have indicatedthat a 10% increase in carbon dioxide should result, on the average, in a temperature increase of about 0.3oC at the earth's surface. The present rate of increase of 0.7 ppm per year wouldtherefore (if extrapolated to 2000 A.D.)result in a warming of about 0.6oC - a very substantial change. »
George S. Benton
(Courtesy John Hopkins University)
Observées
Modèle
Observées
Modèle
Anomalies in average Earth temperatures between 1850 and 2000 (Sources: Environment Canada and RNCan, 2002; IPCC, 2001)
Tempe
rature
ano
malies (oC)
Going further back
- R. Revelle and H. Suess, 1957
Their work showed that the oceans couldnot absorb all the CO2 from anthropogenicorigin and that 15 to 20% of the CO2added to the atmosphere would remainthere permanently. They called on thescientific community to monitor changes inthe carbon dioxide content of waters andairs as well as the rates of production ofplants and animals.
« Through his worldwide industrializedcivilization, man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a fewgenerations he is burning the fossil fuelsthat slowly accumulated in the earth overthe past 500 million years. »
(Courtesy PNAS and UCSD )
Roger Revelle
Hans Suess
Going further back
- S. Arrhenius, 1896
He calculated that a doubling of the CO2
concentration in the atmosphere wouldresult in a 5 to 6 oC temperature increase.
(Courtesy Kungl Biblioteket, Stockholm)
Svante Arrhenius
Les barres indiquent la plage pour 2100 produitepar
plusieurs modèles
Plusieurs modèles de l’enveloppe
SRES
Moyenne des modèles de
l’enveloppe SRES
Les barres indiquent la plage pour 2100 produitepar
plusieurs modèles
Plusieurs modèles de l’enveloppe
SRES
Moyenne des modèles de
l’enveloppe SRES
Aug
men
tatio
n de
tem
péra
ture
oC
Tempe
rature
inc
rease
(o C)
Increase in atmospheric temperature predicted by different models (Sources: Environment Canada and RNCan, 2002; IPCC, 2001)
Recent initiatives
- European Commission, 2001
- California Energy Commission, 2003
- US Government, 2004
- Government of Canada, 2005
- Kyoto Protocol (16 February 2005)
Why are societies so slow to react?
Too often, we need catastrophic events to react:
The Titanic, 14 April 1912
WWI and WWII
January 1998 ice storm
September 11, 2001
December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamiCourtesy White Star Line Archives, Environment Canada and Wikipedia)
Are we waiting for the great disaster?
Nicolas Hulot, 2004 The Titanic syndrome – we sing and dancewhile our ship is sinking
Maxime Laguerre, 2004 The auto-destructive mechanisms ofsocieties are linked to the technological andscientific progress that promote idleness, slightest effort and sensory pleasures.
Ameisen, 1996; 1999; Pinheiro, 2003 Programmed death in the cells of eachindividual may become a collective auto-destructive unconscious.
T.G. Moore, 1998; B. Lomborg, 2001Skeptical economist and environmentalist
Are we well informed about climatechange and global warming?
Scientific communicationsNational and international conferences andmeetings, scientific articles and reports
Mass mediaTV and radio shows, Web sites, sciencemagazines, newspapers, movies, theatreplays
Science centres and museums1500 worldwide – 275 million visitors
Schools and collegesCourses on earth sciences and environment,science clubs, science fairs
Renowned spokespersonsGro Harlem Bruntland, Pierre Dansereau,Albert Jacquart, Ricardo Petrella, Hubert Reeves, Maurice Strong, David Suzuki
Courtesy WHO, UdeM, Olivier Roller, HSC Foundation and Pancanadian Wordfest)
What more can we do?
For the International Climate Change TaskForce experts, it is imperative to limit theatmospheric temperature increase to 2 oCrelative to the year 1750.
The WWF experts, the same temperature increase will have catastrophicconsequences on arctic ecosystems.
According to ICCT, if immediate actionsare not undertaken to slow down the CO2
increase, in 10 years from now it may be too late!
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Mtoe
Oil
Other Renewables
HydroNuclear
Coal
Gas
Is there any hope?
World primary energy demand (source: IEA, 2001)
Ene
rgy demand
(Mtoe)
Tendencies during the last thirty years (source: USEPA)
Maybe…
Fuel use – road vehicles - and NOx emissions(Source: USEPA)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NOx Emissions(Millions Tons)
Fuel Use(Billions ofUS Gallons)
NOx Emissions(Millions Tons)
Fuel Use(Billions ofUS Gallons)
The role of scientists
Scientists have a great social responsibility. Their work influences the life of every person on Earth. What would be the world today if Albert Einstein, Marie Curie, NielsBohr, Henri Ford, Wernher Von Braun and Steve Jobs did not exist?
The scientific experts and leaders workingon climate change and global warming mustspeak loud and unanimously to tell thegovernments, the industrials and the publicthat it is time to take action.
Past examples:
The Russell-Einstein Manifesto (1955)
The Turco et al. article on Nuclear winter published in Science co-signed by CarlSagan (1983)
Courtesy Wikipedia, Pugwash Group, Bertrand Russell Society and NASA
Good news!
June 7 2005
Joint statement by 11 science academies (G8 countries + China, India and Brazil)urging the world leaders to take prompt actions to reduce the causes of climatechange and adapt to its impacts.
The role of science journalistsand communication specialists
The public opinion is really influenced by media
Polls in the US 1981 ------ 1997 --- 2001
Heard about GW 38% 88%
Believe in GW 48% 61-77%
(Corbett et al., 2002)
The role of schools, sciencecentres and museums
Work together to better educate the kids,the leaders of tomorrow, on environmentalissues.
Is the message the right one?
The Earth is endangered!
NO! It is not! In the past, the Earth survived numerousclimate changes, earthquakes, tsunamis,volcanic eruptions, forest fires andmeteorites.
The Earth is not endangered, but thebiosphere, this thin envelope that supportlife on Earth – plants, animal and humanbeings - is endangered.
SO, WE ARE ENDANGERED!
(Bouchard, 1993; Voisin, 2004)
The role of world leaders
Take immediate action to initiate profoundchanges in our societies.
Industrialized countries must change theirrate of consumption, diminish the use offossil fuels and find new ways of life.
The planetary richness must be shared in amuch better way to ensure our children’sfuture.
We must change our lifestyle
Diminish lifestyles
Diminish the rate of consumption
Reuse and recycle domestic and industrialwaste
Repair use goods
Try to be petroleum independent
(Pierre Dansereau, 2005)
Conclusion
The political leaders, the industry leaders, the scientists andeverybody in the society must actnow
10 years is a short period of time!