The overexploitation of natural resources: the case of fisheries and the human factor

Ugo Bardi

University of Florence, Department of Earth SciencesThe Club of Rome

Stintino (Sardinia) - 2009

Photo credit: Donata Bardi

Photo credit: Claudio

Stintino, Sardinia

https://www.flickr.com/photos/cnichele65/2836342774/in/photolist-9e1sTk-58PcW6-bxK9kL-58Tq3o-9w34KL-kqG9Mr-NF2Pz-5aEJKV-4DhDMq-5aJTeN-5fTf2B-4DoWS7-aoHsV3-5egoYx-5jCZTC-PfyiW-2EU72w-ajzHxk-8nMp39-miQQFp-5aJYYb-8pPUNN-8pLHzM-8qa12t-6KkX3q-6Jkb5V-aoHsLh-mxQLdb-5DnD3X-Pg5Nt-mbPcZH-5DrU3d-5egi1V-4rJJSU-8pLKQT-8pPVu7-5DnC28-5DrXwU-8pQ6kh-4GUDG2-93fuWk-2R2zcq-o7SEYv-nQFohb-o85xsf-4GUDKF-mXiv38-o8aYSr-4XT1ZH-mzPYEe

Where is the fish?

Photo credit: Sanjay Acharya https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Jellyfish#/media/File:Chrysaora_Colorata.jpg

Phylosophy of fish

Bardi and Yaxley, The Oil Drum, 2011

"Trawler Skagen harbour" by skagman - http://www.flickr.com/photos/16822508@N05/3177194833/. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons -http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trawler_Skagen_harbour.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Trawler_Skagen_harbour.jpg

The area scraped and churned by bottom trawling, a practice described by the oceanographer Sylvia Earle as the equivalent of bulldozing the countryside to harvest squirrels, has been estimated at approximately 20×106 km2 and hence probably includes most of the continental shelf, which covers some 26×106 km2, or about 7 per cent of the surface area of the oceans

From Zalasiewicz, et al. 2011http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1938/1036.short

Give a man a fish, and he will eat for one day. Teach a man how to fish, and he will deplete the ocean.

Photo credit: Fadi Habib, https://www.flickr.com/photos/untitlism/

Photo credit: Chris Metcalf: https://www.flickr.com/photos/laffy4k/

Stock and flow model of the exploitation of mineral resources

Images by the author

U. Bardi and A. Lavacchi, Energies, 2009

An example of the Seneca Effect: Caviar production in the Caspian sea

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Images by the author

World3 calculations 2004

Images courtesy Dennis Meadows

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Humans as agents of thermodynamic potentials

Photo credit: Oekom Gmbh

Image credit: Roberto Rizzatohttps://www.flickr.com/photos/rizzato/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/rizzato/

The Brutal Logic of Climate Change

http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change-international-shipping-edition/

Sgouridis, Bardi, Csala, http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.06832

The great sustainable transition

The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials

Image credit: Kartik Ramanathan https://www.flickr.com/photos/60999792@N06/

The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials

Image credit: Kartik Ramanathan https://www.flickr.com/photos/60999792@N06/

Chelsea Green2014

www.cassandralegacy.blogspot.com

paljon kiitoksia

ugo.bardi@unifi.it

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9583

Total predicted emissions: 5x10+12 t CO2.Maximum allowable for +2° C : 2.3x10+12 t CO2

The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials

The Gambler's fallacy: a serious mis-wiring of the human mind

Fishing boat image by Rafael Lopez, oil wll from Wikipedia

The second law: you can't get even

Hubbert's “peak oil” model

3-stock model

World Model – 6 stocks

Source: http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/Puffins_UK.htm

The 19th century whaling cycle

Source: FAO

“Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."

Lucius Anneaus Seneca (1st century AD), Letters to Lucilius, n. 91

R’ = ProductionC’ = Economic growth

C = CapitalR = Resources

Lotka-Volterra as a description of the economy

R’ = -k1CRC’ = k2CR – K3C

43Bardi, Lavacchi, and Yaxley - 2011

Lucius Annaeus Seneca 4 AD – 65 AD

"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of

our selves and our works if all things should perish

as slowly as they come into being; but as it is,

increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to

ruin is rapid."

The Seneca Effect

The Seneca Effect: when things go wrong, they go wrong fast

U. Bardi, 2011

The Seneca Effect: when things go wrong, they go wrong fast

U. Bardi, 2011

U. Bardi, Energy Sources, 2007

19th century whaling cycle

Stock and flow model of the world system

World3 calculations 2004

World3 – 2004 run

The effects of 118 years of industrial fishing on UK bottom trawl fisheries, Ruth H. Thurstan, Simon Brockington, Callum M. Roberts, Nature Communications, 1, 15, 1013

The Collapse of the UK Fishery

U. Bardi and A. Lavacchi, Energies, 2009

Lucius Annaeus Seneca 4 AD – 65 AD

"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of

our selves and our works if all things should perish

as slowly as they come into being; but as it is,

increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to

ruin is rapid."

The Seneca Effect

Vito Volterra1860-1940

Lotka-Volterra model (LV)