the outlook for energy - united states association for ...the outlook for energy: a view to 2040...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Todd Onderdonk

USAEE -- Houston

February 2014

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development

ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

100

countries

15 demand

sectors

Residential

Commercial

Lt. Transportation

Hvy. Transportation

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Chemicals

Asphalt

Lubricants

Flaring

Energy Industry

Agriculture

Heavy Industry

Power Generation



Motor Gasoline

Distillate

Naphtha

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

LPG

Lubes

Asphalt

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Biomass/Other

Coal

Hydro

Geothermal

20 fuel

types

Solar

Wind

Bio-mogas

Bio-distillate

Electricity

Market Heat





Technology &

Policy



Trade

Flows

Energy Saved

~500

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

1.0%

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP

Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.8%

OECD

Non OECD


People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy


Leading Economic Growth 2010 to 2040

China

~40%

India

~15%

Key

Growth

20%

Other

25%

Percent Share

60+

Countries

10

Countries

Key Growth Countries

2040 Energy Demand

QUADS

Brazil

Saudi

Arabia

Iran

Mexico

Nigeria

South Africa

Thailand

Egypt

Turkey

Indonesia


Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)

2010 Percentage Urban

0-50%

50-75%

75-100%

2010 City – 10 million +

Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)

2040 Percentage Urban

0-50%

50-75%

75-100%



Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates

Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


Industrial

Energy

Industry

Chemicals

Heavy

Industry

Other

Percent Share

By Sector

Industrial Energy Demand

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

China

India

Rest of

Non OECD

2010

2040


By Fuel

Percent Share

Other

Oil

NGLs

Naphtha Other

Electricity

Coal

Gas

Industrial Energy Demand

By Region

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

China

India

Rest of

Non OECD

2010

2040


Transportation

Range of Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon

U.S.

Average

Fleet

Europe

Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency

Car Fleet by Type Million Cars


Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010 Sector Demand MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

MBDOE


Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040 Sector Demand MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

MBDOE

2010


Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel


Non OECD

MBDOE

OECD

MBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel Fuel Oil

Other

Natural Gas

Electricity generation

Electricity Demand

Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh

Residential

Commercial

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Transportation

Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas


CCS Onshore

Wind

Gas

Coal

Gas

Plant Cost, Startup 2030

2013 cents/kWh

Coal Nuclear

$60/tonne of CO2

$0/tonne

Solar PV

Utility *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.

Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity

Baseload Intermittent

Reliability

Cost*

Reliability

Cost*


United States Energy Demand and Supply

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs


2010 - 2040

1.0%

2040

2010

0.7%

1.7%

0.0%

2.5% 0.4%

5.9% 2.0%


Emissions

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Asia Pacific

North America

Russia/Caspian

Europe

2010

2040

Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person

CO2 Emissions Plateau


CO2 Emissions Relative to Efficiency & Fuel Mix Changes

11

13

10

18

7

27

= Billion tonnes CO2

Tonnes of CO2 per Billion BTUs

Th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f B

TU

s p

er

$ G

DP

(2

00

5$

)

Non OECD

OECD 2040

2040

2010

2010

1980

1980


Supply

Liquids Supply

Liquid Supply by Type

MBDOE

Other

Biofuels

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Crude and Condensate Resource*

Cumulative

Production

through 2040

Remaining

Resource

Trillion barrels of oil

* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy

* Source: IEA

Liquids Supply by Region

North American Liquid Supply MBDOE

Conventional

Crude & Condensate

NGLs

Other

Biofuels

Tight Oil

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Change in Liquid Production by Region from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE


Gas Resources Abundant; Supply Diversifies

Thousand TCF

Gas Production by Region Remaining Recoverable Resource*

BCFD

Conventional

Unconventional

BCFD

Unconventional

Conventional

ROW

Gas Production by Type

2012

* Source: IEA

AP

NA

Africa

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Russia/

Caspian

Europe

North America

Latin America


* Source: IEA

Africa

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Russia/

Caspian

Europe

North America

Latin America

Liquids Trade

North America

MBDOE

Net Exports

Net Imports

Latin America Africa

Europe

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian


Natural Gas Trade

North America

BCFD

Net Exports

Net Imports

Latin America Africa

Europe

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Russia/Caspian


Conclusions


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