the outlook for energy...the outlook for energy a view to 2040 stephen s.f. wong president greater...

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1A of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K or information set forth under "factors affecting future results" on the "investors" page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The Outlook for EnergyA View to 2040

Stephen S.F. WongPresidentGreater China/Japan Gas Marketing

Oil & Gas Energy ForumTaipei, July 4, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Proprietary 2

Global Progress Drives Demand

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

BillionPopulation GDP

Trillion 2005$

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040

0.8%


2.9%

OECD

Non OECD

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs


0.9%

Energy Demand

Energy Saved ~500 QBTUs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 2040

0.9%

0.3%

1.5%

-0.9%

2.1%

4.4%

Source: ExxonMobil 2012 Energy Outlook

Proprietary 3

Global Energy Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Power Generation

Res/Comm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables


1.6%

0.7%

-0.2%

2.2%

0.3%

5.3%

growth0.9%

0.1%

0.7%

1.3%

1.2%

41%@‘40

27%

growth0.9%

Proprietary 4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2015 2040

Natural Gas Demand Grows in All Areas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2015 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2015 2040

Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

By Region By Sector

Oil

Gas

Russia/Caspian

Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America Industrial

PowerGeneration

Other

Transportation

Coal

Middle East

North America

Europe

Res/Comm


2.1%

1.4%

0.9%

MTAMTA

Fastest AP growth @ 3.2%

growth1.6%

Proprietary 5

Natural Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

North America

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

Europe Asia Pacific

Conventional

Pipeline

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040


0.3%

12.5%

4.2%

1.9%

0.9%

-1.9%

3.0%

-2.2%

74%@‘40

25%

12%

28%

24%

36%

12%@‘40

26%

36%

24%

7.8%

MTA MTAMTAgrowth

3.2%

growth0.5%

growth0.7%

14%

LNG

LNG

Proprietary 6

AP Gas Demand Grows in all countries

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

1990 2015 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2015 2040

By FuelQuadrillion BTUs

By Country

Oil

Coal

Gas

Other

China

SEA Countries

India

Other AP Countries

Japan

Australia


1.5%

2.0%

29%@‘40

32%

21%

18%

0.1%

5.0%

3.2%

2.0%

35%

16%

23%

2.3%

0.6%

5.0%

2.7%3.2%

MTAgrowth

3.2%

growth1.3%

Proprietary 7

LNG Market TransitionMTA • 2012 outlook for Global

LNG demand back to 2009/10 view

• Different prospect of regional LNG demand

• Negligible North America LNG demand, volumes originally destined for NA now going primarily to Asia

• Asia continues to have the most significant LNG demand

MTA MTA

MTA

May 2012Feb 2011Feb 2010Feb 2009Feb 2008

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Proprietary 8

ExxonMobil’s LNG Global Reach

Over 40 years of LNG experience; Interest in over 25% of world's capacity

SpainItaly Japan

JapanKorea

(1st LNG Sale)

Korea

Spain

Spain

India(1st LNG Sale)

Italy

Belgium

UK

France

USMexico

Korea

Taiwan

India

US

Japan

Taiwan

China

Gross MTA

Libya Arun ArunExp

QG RG QGDeb

RGExp

RGExp

RGExp

RGExp

QGII RLIII PNG Gorgon

AsiaEurope

Americas

India

China

Source: ExxonMobil in the LNG Business

Proprietary 9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America

Europe OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

• World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

• Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


Global Gas Resources

Proprietary 10

Growing Unconventional Gas Production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Unconventional

Conventional


69%

31% 5.7%

0.7%

MTA growth1.6%

Proprietary 11

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MTA EIA & IEA Global

Unconventional Production

IEA Tight Gas Production

IEA CBM Production

IEA Shale GasProduction

EIA UnconventionalGas Production

GeologicalUnderstanding

Physical, social or environmental

constraints

Resource productivity & capacity of service

industry

Governments’ experience,

knowledge & expectations

Infrastructure, contractual & political

limitations

Resourcesize

Resourceaccess

Extractiontechnology

Regulatoryframework

Marketaccess

Factors Determining the Viability of Natural Gas De velopments

Development&

production

Too small / uncertain

Inaccessible

Not technically or economically recoverable

Unable to secure regulatory approvals

Unable to achieve commercial price or

volume

Not developed

Factors influencing success and pace of development

play as great a role in determining unconventional

production as does the size of the resource endowment

Source: Adapted from IEA. World Energy Outlook 2011: Special Report –Are We Entering the Golden Age of Gas?

Unconventional Gas - Challenges

Proprietary 12

Kenai LNG (1.5 MTA)Final Conventional Cargo 2012

Participants: ConocoPhillips, Marathon

Other BC LNG Export ProjectsYet to apply for export approvals

1. Shell, KOGAS, Mitsubishi, PetroChina (~10 MTA)

2. Petronas, Progress (7.4 MTA)3. BG - Prince Rupert (?)

4. Nexen/Inpex (?)

Jordan Cove LNG (9 MTA)DOE FTA approval Dec ‘11;

Yet to apply for non-FTA/FERCParticipants: Veresen, Energy

Partners Development

Kitimat LNG (10 MTA)NEB export license Oct’11.BC O&G approval pending.Participants: Apache , EOG

Resources, Encana Corporation

Douglas Channel (1.8 MTA)NEB Export License Jan 2012BC O&G approvals pendingParticipants: LNG Partners

Cove Point LNG (7.8 MTA)DOE re-export approval Jan ‘12;

DOE FTA Oct ‘11;DOE non-FTA approval pending; Yet to

apply for FERC approvalParticipants: Dominion

Lake Charles LNG (15 MTA)DOE FTA approval July ‘11;

DOE non-FTA approval pending;Yet to apply for FERC approval

Participants: BG , Southern Union

Cameron LNG (12 MTA)DOE re-export approval Dec ‘10;

DOE FTA approval Jan ‘12, DOE non-FTA approval pending,

Yet to apply for FERC approvalParticipants: Sempra Energy

Sabine Pass LNG (16 MTA)DOE re-export approval Feb ‘09;

DOE FTA approval Sep ‘10;DOE non-FTA approval May ‘11;

FERC approval pendingParticipants: Cheniere

Corpus Christi (13.5 MTA)Yet to apply for DOE FTA and non-FTA

Export DOE Re-Export approval, or FERC approval

Participants: Cheniere

Gulf Coast LNG (21 MTA)DOE FTA/non-FTA under reviewYet to apply for FERC approval

Participants: Freeport LNG

Golden PassNo application for DOE FTA and non-

FTA Export DOE Re-Export approval, or FERC approval

Participants: Qatar Petroleum, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips

Freeport LNG (9 MTA)DOE re-export approval May ‘09;

DOE FTA approval Feb ‘11;DOE non-FTA and FERC approvals

pendingParticipants: Freeport LNGFreeport Expansion (9 MTA)

DOE FTA non-FTA approvals pendingYet to apply for FERC approval

Source: Wood Mackenzie; U.S. Department ofEnergy; Canada National Energy Board

Potential North American LNG Exports

Proprietary 13

Key Insights

• Global energy demand is expected to grow about 30% in 2040 compared to 2010

• OECD countries remain flat, economic growth offset by large efficiency gain

• Non-OECD will grow by ~60% due to economic and population growth

• Fossil fuels continue to provide about 80% of the world’s energy

• Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline while the use of gas and renewables will grow significantly

• Strong growth in natural gas by more than 60% through 2040 overtaking coal being the second position behind oil

• Driven by power generation due to less emissions

• Demand from Asia Pacific will grow the fastest, account about 30% of global natural gas demand by 2040

• Estimates of global unconventional gas resources and production continue to grow

• Asia continues to be the premium LNG market with significant growing demand

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1A of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K or information set forth under "factors affecting future results" on the "investors" page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Stephen S.F. WongPresidentGreater China/Japan Gas Marketing

Oil & Gas Energy ForumTaipei, July 4, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Thank YouThank YouThank YouThank You

the outlook for energy...the outlook for energy a view to 2040 stephen s.f. wong president greater...

Documents